Not very much of this opinion is based on facts.
California has the tightest restrictions of any state. How are their numbers doing?
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Government Response To The Coronavirus (11 Viewers)
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California has the tightest restrictions of any state. How are their numbers doing?
The Commish
Footballguy
He's also made suggestions that two doses may not be necessary....against all logic.
Yeah...no....I didn't say people were saying it wasn't needed
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
This is hogwash.
The recommendations that the CDC have screwed up are practically identical with the recommendations that the WHO have screwed up. It would be absurd to say that Trump somehow was interfering with them.
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parasaurolophus
Footballguy
It was literally in the first quote you copied?????Yeah...no....I didn't say people were saying it wasn't needed
rcam
Footballguy
Better than ~80% of the other states. Their death/million and cases/million are both 40th in the nation. This is despite being hit early on with some of the first confirmed cases.
Im talking about today, right now. Check the headlines. How are all those restrictions working out for them?
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
And in addition the other two bold quotes are basically saying that too.
He's also made suggestions that two doses may not be necessary....against all logic.
Yeah...no....I didn't say people were saying it wasn't needed
shader
Footballguy
You can't get past semantics on this one, can you? The CDC is the foremost part of the medical community in the USA during a pandemic and they have failed. If that's because of Trump, ok fine. That article looks awful and shows just how poor his administration has been during this. But it doesn't change the fact that the medical community has failed the US. Me saying the medical community has fault doesn't mean I'm also not giving fault to others. Everyone deserves blame.
The CDC has stunk. Trump has stunk. The media has stunk. Republicans have stunk. Democrats have stunk. Citizens of the USA have stunk. There is more than enough blame to go around out there and nowhere am I putting all the fault on the medical community. But they do deserve some, (and just to be clear by THEY I'm not talking about the ER nurses or those working the front lines, they are heroes) And they still do, because unless I'm missing it, where are the national calls for lockdowns right now?
Ok to break up the tension of the back and forth - a recent interaction I had with a customer recovering from COVID.
Her and her husband along with their two sons all got it around Thanksgiving. Son 1 lives nearby and has been extra cautious. Son 2 comes back from college and goes bar hopping with friends a week before he was the first to get sick (then his parents and finally Son 1)
Almost certainly it was Son 2 who brought it back from college/bars and they did blame him initially until Son 1 also got sick. Son 1 hadn’t been around Son 2. But the parents went out to eat with Son 1 at Rudy’s. She now believes that they caught it from Rudy’s because they used paper to wrap the food not because of their son.
Her and her husband along with their two sons all got it around Thanksgiving. Son 1 lives nearby and has been extra cautious. Son 2 comes back from college and goes bar hopping with friends a week before he was the first to get sick (then his parents and finally Son 1)
Almost certainly it was Son 2 who brought it back from college/bars and they did blame him initially until Son 1 also got sick. Son 1 hadn’t been around Son 2. But the parents went out to eat with Son 1 at Rudy’s. She now believes that they caught it from Rudy’s because they used paper to wrap the food not because of their son.
rcam
Footballguy
Do you need a study that states riding in a car with someone infected for 1 hour vs. being in the sharing the same 40000 square feet as that person has different transmission rates? If you do, you don't understand how COVID spreads. If you don't, then you shouldn't need a walmart vs. sit down restaurant study.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
gianmarco
Footballguy
It's so far beyond semantics. You and others here calling the political interference "hogwash" just don't get it. There's no other way to state it.
Science, at its core, is meant to be factual. It's not meant to be covered up, filtered, or altered in its presentation. When releases are changed for political reasons, the science is no longer at fault.
This article here is long and is probably the best read about what happened to a prestigious institution. It's not to say the CDC is perfect or had all the answers. But in a pandemic with a novel disease, evidence and recommendations were always going to evolve as things were learned. And there was interference almost every step of the way from the organization that everyone has always looked to for guidance.
It's not an equal blame game here.
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So it doesn’t exist then. Check.
Guess who: 12/16/2020, 53,711 is the highest single daily count of new virus infections ever reported by a US state.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
x:Scientific data backs up how this spreads!!
y: Ok cool lets see the data?
x:If you need data to support how this spreads, then you don't understand how this spreads!!
y: lol
In my state, that actually tried to enforce contract tracing, and who publishes the data regularly has failed to list one single case traced back to restaurants. Zero. None. How’s that data for you?
rcam
Footballguy
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parasaurolophus
Footballguy
If political interference from the Trump admin was the dominant force of incorrect assumptions and poor recommendations regarding the science, then it should be pretty easy to show where the CDC and the WHO had divergent paths and that the WHO was more evolved.
I would argue that the CDC has been far better than the WHO when it comes to the science involved. They were faster to acknowledge airborne spread. Faster to recommend masks and faster to back off of fomites.
Or you could just back up your claims with facts. Otherwise they are just opinions, very poor ones at that.
rcam
Footballguy
There are a ton of links there regarding studies of how it spreads. Not only that, there are a ton of countries that used those assumptions to enforce mask wearing, social distancing, etc. etc. and they are doing significantly better than the US which didn't do anything on a national level. [edited... taking 10 deep breaths]
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shader
Footballguy
I'm not in the business of assigning blame or apportioning it out appropriately, because how in the heck would I know? I don't doubt for one second that the CDC is politicized. If you'd like to put that blame on Trump, that's fine man, go for it. If you recall the statement I made that started all this hub-bub is "If I want to know the truth about covid, I always look at other countries. Trusting the medical community, or anyone in the USA for advice is generally the worst thing you can do. Just look at how this country has handled the following controversies: Masks, lockdowns, ventilators, Hydroxychloroquine, kids in school, essential workers, selective shutdowns, travel, etc"
I stand by what I said, although as I mentioned, I should have clarified that I wasn't referring to doctors and nurses that are treating patients.
If your point is that the only reason the medical community can't be trusted is because of Trump or the right, go for it. I don't know exactly who is to blame and you've made some excellent points. But overall my point stands. If we are truly interested in learning how to defeat covid, we need to look at other countries, not the USA. Because the USA has no freaking clue how to defeat it and is hoping that a vaccine solves the problem.
You guys can't get on my case for saying not to trust the medical community in the USA and then tell me that the medical community is politicized. Trust me I know. That's the entire point!
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timschochet
Footballguy
I have no intention of playing board cop, but when one poster tells you that you should learn to read, and you write this to another poster, it makes what should be an interesting and informative discussion quite unreadable.
x:Scientific data backs up how this spreads!!
y: Ok cool lets see the data?
x:If you need data to support how this spreads, then you don't understand how this spreads!!
y: lol
x: resorts to name calling
rcam
Footballguy
timschochet
Footballguy
If I were playing board cop I’d report it. And the guy who questioned your literacy. I didn’t PM you because you’re not the only one doing it. I didn’t report you, or the others, because you’re making good arguments and I don’t want to see you suspended. So please knock it off.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
The orange man is bad. I get it, and I agree. Trump did not force the FDA to put all their eggs in the CDC's basket, and Trump did not cause the CDC to botch their test.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
The fact that Trump is bad at his job does not imply that everybody else is good at theirs.
rcam
Footballguy
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
rcam
Footballguy
Apologies as well.
Starting fresh then. What kind of studies are you looking for exactly? I don't know if there is going to be a specific Walmart vs. restaurant. However, there are plenty of studies linking restaurants and even moreso bars as COVID transmission points. I am unaware of any studies linking big box stores to customer/community spread. The takeaway from that, assuming that holds up and there isn't a bunch of literature on it that I have never stumbled across, is that there is little to no community spread in a big box store among customers (employees are different as they do different things). If that is the case, then it seems a pretty likely assumption that restaurants have a much greater chance of community spread - through whatever means you want to attribute that to than big box stores.
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Rich Conway
Footballguy
I think the issue is that everyone defines the bolded differently. Some might define this in "post-nuclear holocaust" terms, which COVID pretty clearly isn't. Others might define it as "destroyed my livelihood and health" terms, which for a lot of people, COVID pretty clearly has.
I haven't followed this and don't know what specifically you're talking about but wanted to say thanks to both of you for this kind of attitude.
Makes a ton of difference in real discussion. Thank you.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
I think you have approached our discussion from a viewpoint that you think I think masks dont work and I don't buy into aerosol spread(perhaps I am wrong). Those statements couldn't be further from the truth. I actually help people locate good masks on a regular basis and I have been beating the airborne drum for a while. My acknowledgment of airborne is precisely why i think banning outdoor dining compared to a walmart or even indoor dining where windows can be open, or many other variables. People always forget the employees, not just the customers. Employee lunchrooms, locker rooms, etc. Cashier customer interactions, air pockets where aerosols can build up. I have seen some CO2 readings from plenty of stores that show they dont always have the greatest ventilation. If you search #covidco2 on twitter you can see people from all over the world post readings and charts of various places.
The social distance and restriction guidance came from past diseases, not science re:covid. Much of it applies, but not really because of some great understanding or studies. Similar to the analogy of stopping drunk driving by keeping everybody home. Sure it works, but it isn't exactly scientific.
In fact the country most praised(new zealand) didn't acknowledge aerosol spread existed until very very recently. Kind of hard to praise them for scientific understanding. I laud their people's devotion to community, dont get me wrong, but it isnt because their doctors just nailed how this thing spreads. And it certainly wasn't from citing unicorn data. Being a remote island certainly helped too.
ETA: i see you replied, hadnt read yet, had the window on my screen up and had to leave for a tiny bit.
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Gr00vus
Footballguy
I've got plenty of empathy, and I've had to deal with some major adjustments, just as most people have. I still think going from that to this
Is over the top. I mean, we're still sitting around here grousing on this message board for cripes sake. I think that would probably not be happening if our way of life had been destroyed and literally doesn't exist anymore. That's just one example. People are still playing/caring about fantasy football, hop over to the FFA and people are still ranking songs, gambling, trading securities, playing video games, and drafting television shows.
It's a crummy situation, people have died, gotten sick, lost jobs, etc. I get that. And that's terrible for those people and their loved ones. I know people who have contracted Covid, though the deaths haven't reached my inner circle yet (I do have coworkers who've had relatives die of it, that's the closest it's come to me yet). The Federal government has done a miserable job of dealing with this pandemic. My kid has been learning from home since March, and he hates it, he hates not seeing his friends. I get all that.
Still, we (and I assume we're talking about the U.S. here) have not had our way of life destroyed, most of it still does exist. Eventually we'll recover the parts that have been constrained as well. This statement, and the mindset behind it, the hyper-dramatization, it's not helpful, except maybe for the individual saying stuff like this to vent. There's a pretty big gap between having our lives upended to some degree and asserting that our way of life has been destroyed and literally doesn't exist anymore. Dialing down rhetoric like that would actually go a long way towards creating an environment more conducive to mitigating our problems.
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The Commish
Footballguy
Do you honestly not see the huge difference between "we dont need it" and "we might not need it"?
If not...we'll agree to disagree and move on...nothing good comes of conversations where we cant even agree on the simplest of things.
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The Commish
Footballguy
Fovea capitis
Footballguy
You're all rolling nicely today
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rcam
Footballguy
Snark followed snark and we decided to dial it back to something much more reasonable. No hard feelings (I hope).I haven't followed this and don't know what specifically you're talking about but wanted to say thanks to both of you for this kind of attitude.
Makes a ton of difference in real discussion. Thank you.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
This is some evidence.
Of note, shopping (as would occur in places like Wal-mart) was not associated with increased risk. Neither were a bunch of other activities people have claimed are unfairly restricted, like going to gyms and places of worship.
But you may recall, this was the study people cited for masks not working, as they completely ignored the logistics of maintaining mask use while eating/drinking in a public place.
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gianmarco
Footballguy
I'm going to address the bolded here and then be done with this. This ends up becoming frustrating.
1) The USA absolutely has a clue how to defeat it. There's a difference between knowing what to do and actually doing it. In the medical/hospital setting, the US knows what it's doing. It's why we aren't seeing medical personnel ravaged by Covid. We also know what to do to stop spread in the community. I'm not going to keep arguing about getting it wrong in the beginning or the message changing, but the bottom line is the message right now is clear: Avoid groups/socially distance, wear a mask, wash your hands. But the USA can't defeat it if those policies aren't put into place and enforced like they are in other countries. Due to politics and culture, we are failing miserably at controlling the spread of Covid. But it has NOTHING to do with not knowing HOW to do it. We don't need to look at other countries to learn what to do. We have the answers and many in healthcare have been calling/begging for it. Please stay home. Please wear a mask. Please stay away from others. Posters with "we can't stay home, but you can". That we, as a country, can't abide by that, because "my freedom" and "you can't lock us down forever" and the fact that our government can't support its citizens so they CAN stay home is where the problem lies. And all the mixed messages. And the politicization of masks. So yes, it's VERY political.
2) For all of what I explained above, you can't seem to differentiate what the actual medical community is saying/doing vs what is politicized. I work in it. I see it every single day. The message is loud and clear. PLEASE STAY HOME. PLEASE WEAR A MASK. PLEASE WASH YOUR HANDS. Yet for a list of reasons you put above, that, most of which really don't make much sense to me, you feel you can't trust those messages. But, as you likely aren't around healthcare on a regular basis, you can't see that the vast majority are calling for the same thing. And when the message that you keep repeating "you can't trust the medical community" and "you can't trust the media" is believed by so many, well, then the message just gets lost and ignored by too many and we end up where we are. So people go about their lives, they can't socially distance all the time, and some can't even wear masks.
This is why I, and others, are getting on you about what you're typing here. It's not semantics. It's having an understanding that the "official" words coming from the CDC have been politicized and knowing to listen to the actual science from everywhere else. From countless interviews and articles of physicians and scientists across the country. Not the vocal minority that challenge or cast doubt on consensus. But you commonly give equal weight to both despite one side being 99% and the other being 1%. And you see that conflict and say "I can't trust any of it". I feel this is why are having this huge problem with the "medical community".
In the end, it's easy to know what you know. It's much harder to recognize what you don't know.
rcam
Footballguy
I admit, I am a little confused then (I might have missed a previous post that would've cleared things up). Let's start from the premise that you believe masks work and that aerosol/airborne transmission is significant enough to be concerning (in other words wearing masks work and are a good thing). Is your stance that restaurants are no different than big box stores (both should be open or both closed) or that they differ in transmission?
I do agree with the distance thing. I don't know if 6ft is enough for an extended periods of time without a mask - but I would hazard to guess that it isn't. I would argue there is a scientific basis for it though as there are studies about droplet distance traveling and it isn't likely COVID droplets travel further/less than non-covid droplets. The simple formula is exposure * time for most people and everyone likely has a slightly different threshold as to what would make them sick.
JAA
Footballguy
Id like to respectfully disagree with a lot of what you are saying here. I mean, just 1 link to the CDC pretty much disproves most of your points I think: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
JAA
Footballguy
Why do you believe the medical community is not prioritizing your recommendations here? Do you believe its because they are making a political statement?
Regarding supplementing VitD , are you really making a case that we should be prioritizing this as a preventative COVID measure?
JAA
Footballguy
It sounds like you are recommending the populace to not listen to the CDC. Who would you recommend they listen to instead?
gianmarco
Footballguy
Also, as a general note for those accusing the "medical community" of either not being truthful at the start and/or getting it wrong, etc., I'll just share a viewpoint on that.
I can't speak to what was known at the very beginning at the very top of organizations like the CDC and WHO and what they truly knew about spread. But, from a conspiracy standpoint, it's very unlikely that key information was withheld for various reasons that would put healthcare workers knowingly at risk.
As I've already mentioned, there was a lot we didn't know in the beginning. I was one of them here at the start saying masks weren't important because the thought was that it was spread by direct contact. There was reason to believe so based on early spread patterns. It didn't make sense for it to be airborne or passed by droplets based on the fact that we weren't seeing huge numbers cluster at the beginning. We also didn't know about the asymptomatic spread. This is why we initially were going crazy with wiping things down and doing everything we could to limit direct contact exposure.
Time passed and we learned more and more. And I can tell you that I received almost daily emails changing what needed to be done and/or worn during patient contact. Without going into specifics or time, it went along the lines of first no masks needed, then surgical masks if there were symptoms, then N95 masks for certain patients and procedures, then surgical masks instead of N95, then goggles, then face shields, then only if symptoms, then if there was any suspicion or exposure, full gowns, then newer more restrictive gowns, then back to regular gowns, then no gowns or goggles but yes to face masks, then.....I'm not exaggerating if I say the protocol changed dozens of times during the first few months.
It was difficult to keep up with the PPE recommendations because they were literally changing day by day. That's the benefit of time and data. So it wasn't that anyone was trying to mislead anyone. We were trying to figure out for ourselves as well. Now, the guidelines for what to wear and for whom haven't changed in a long, long while. Spread in healthcare facilities is virtually non-existent among workers in patient care. Most of the spread now is thought to be during breaks/eating areas, etc.
But the basics at this point remain. It's a clear, consistent message. Stay home when you can as much as possible, stay away from others, wear a mask, and wash your hands.
I can't speak to what was known at the very beginning at the very top of organizations like the CDC and WHO and what they truly knew about spread. But, from a conspiracy standpoint, it's very unlikely that key information was withheld for various reasons that would put healthcare workers knowingly at risk.
As I've already mentioned, there was a lot we didn't know in the beginning. I was one of them here at the start saying masks weren't important because the thought was that it was spread by direct contact. There was reason to believe so based on early spread patterns. It didn't make sense for it to be airborne or passed by droplets based on the fact that we weren't seeing huge numbers cluster at the beginning. We also didn't know about the asymptomatic spread. This is why we initially were going crazy with wiping things down and doing everything we could to limit direct contact exposure.
Time passed and we learned more and more. And I can tell you that I received almost daily emails changing what needed to be done and/or worn during patient contact. Without going into specifics or time, it went along the lines of first no masks needed, then surgical masks if there were symptoms, then N95 masks for certain patients and procedures, then surgical masks instead of N95, then goggles, then face shields, then only if symptoms, then if there was any suspicion or exposure, full gowns, then newer more restrictive gowns, then back to regular gowns, then no gowns or goggles but yes to face masks, then.....I'm not exaggerating if I say the protocol changed dozens of times during the first few months.
It was difficult to keep up with the PPE recommendations because they were literally changing day by day. That's the benefit of time and data. So it wasn't that anyone was trying to mislead anyone. We were trying to figure out for ourselves as well. Now, the guidelines for what to wear and for whom haven't changed in a long, long while. Spread in healthcare facilities is virtually non-existent among workers in patient care. Most of the spread now is thought to be during breaks/eating areas, etc.
But the basics at this point remain. It's a clear, consistent message. Stay home when you can as much as possible, stay away from others, wear a mask, and wash your hands.
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JAA
Footballguy
Some people will never see their parents again. That doesnt mean our way of life is destroyed or altered forever. I would encourage you to think about your situation in the terms of adversity. The best kind of adversity also, the temporary kind.
If you think COVID has destroyed our way of life, what are your thoughts on the 1918 Spanish Flue? How about WWI and WW2? How about Vietnam? How about 9/11. How about the Cuban Missile crisis. I mean really - we are talking about wearing masks and staying home when possible. Cant people just crack a beer and put on Netflix? I mean unless you are talking about losing your job and your house I think your statements of changing the countries lives forever is a bit off.
JAA
Footballguy
Id like to echo this
My wife worked at a facility, during the 6-12 weeks of 22 people dying. Every day she wore her SN95 to treat these CV patients, and when I say treat I mean perform Physical Therapy on/with them, to the point where she would have constant mask marks on her face from the mask usage. Her getup included the full on garment with hood (I forget what it was called). She would come home, undress in the garage (
), right to the shower and then hang out with us the rest of the night. The medical community definitely knows what its doing. Why the entirety of the US govt not enabling this in all departments is astounding. But honestly, and this is justa guess here ... it prolly starts with something simple like the president refusing to wear a mask 99% of the time. Like that simple.
shader
Footballguy
I totally disagree with your attitude on this. Posting on a message board is irrelevant. I guess I should celebrate that I still have power and am alive? I didn’t say I was destroyed, I said my way of life is destroyed. That’s a fact.
You know why 3k people die everyday? Because the USA is full of politicians that don’t get along, people who claim covid is a hoax, and then others who say to “dial down the rhetoric” when people try to speak out how ridiculous the current situation is and how it’s destroyed many of our lives.
My wife’s grandmother passed away and her own daughter couldn’t be there to say bye but could only watch through a window. But that’s cool because you play fantasy football so life isn’t that bad right?
I have a nephew I’ve literally never seen. But hey I’m glad you have fun ranking songs in a stupid thread on a message board.
Dial back the rhetoric? It’s unreal that you have the gall to say that.
Yes our way of life literally doesn’t exist anymore. Obviously at some point we all expect things to get back to some level of “normalcy”, but we aren’t anywhere close to that now.
And the sad part is that it all could have been prevented.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
People looooove vitamins and supplements, but taking them to prevent or treat anything rarely holds up to rigorous scrutiny. Admittedly, they’re hard to study, because intake varies tremendously, as does sunlight exposure with vitamin D.
Vit D deficiency has long been linked to the seasonal uptick in respiratory illness in winter, as it has immunomodulatory properties which help fight infection. But not everyone is deficient, and there’s no evidence supraphysiologic doses of D help at all. It’s also unclear if rapid replenishment in deficient individuals will alter the course of an ongoing infection. Moreover, as a fat soluble vitamin it can accumulate, and rarely hypervitaminosis D (toxicity) can result. High D intake with calcium also promotes kidney stones.
It’s good medical practice to replete vitamin D in deficient individuals and certain disease states, like osteoporosis. The benefit to routine supplementation in the general population is less clear, especially for those who aren’t deficient.
While a daily D3 supplement between 400-2000 IU probably won’t hurt most people, expecting healthcare providers to be pushing it as a major component of covid management is too much IMO. The NIH agrees
Yes, I know the last update was in July, but there hasn’t been any earth-shattering data accumulate in the interim. A treatment trial is recruiting subjects at Harvard, and a pilot study of Calcifediol looked promising.
Prior studies of Vitamin D supplementation in critically ill patients didn’t pan out, however, and taking it for prevention is a whole ‘nother poorly studied can of worms.
TL;DR It’s not about politics. It’s about data.
Ok. A study of 314 people. Let’s take it as fact anyway. Twice as likely added to the mortality rate for healthy people. Open up the bars and restaurants while high risk people stay home. The economics and people’s livelihood isn’t worth shutting them down IMO.
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