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23 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

I have been here before, and that's the problem.  Let me direct you to week 11 of the 2018 season.  Going into the Monday Night game, the cut line sat at 134.6.  I was sitting comfortably in the clubhouse at 167.9 and had no players in the final game of the week.  Guess how much the cut line moved?  Would you believe me if I said 43.25?

You can’t compare a week with 6 nfl teams on a bye with a non bye week. Many more zeros sitting in people’s lineups. Also most of these guys tonight aren’t highly owned. Excluding kickers and def, I saw Dobbins and brown in the low 1000 ownership range. Mahomes is at 939 but most of those owners have something on the board already 

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27 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

I have been here before, and that's the problem.  Let me direct you to week 11 of the 2018 season.  Going into the Monday Night game, the cut line sat at 134.6.  I was sitting comfortably in the clubhouse at 167.9 and had no players in the final game of the week.  Guess how much the cut line moved?  Would you believe me if I said 43.25?

yeah a similar thing happened to me last season thanks to lamar jackson straight going off on mnf. i had a championship quality team and a legit look at it but no lamar jackson. i had something like a 38 score at qb going in too lol.

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2 minutes ago, FishNSuds said:

Excluding kickers and def, I saw Dobbins and brown in the low 1000 ownership range. Mahomes is at 939 but most of those owners have something on the board already 

how about ceh? that would be my concern if i had like a 15 point cushion and no bullets. hes pretty highly owned, right? and a legit chance in this game he could put up a 30+. obviously its pretty unlikely but itd be in the back of my mind.

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2 minutes ago, sooted72 said:

how about ceh? that would be my concern if i had like a 15 point cushion and no bullets. hes pretty highly owned, right? and a legit chance in this game he could put up a 30+. obviously its pretty unlikely but itd be in the back of my mind.

Dang, missed him. 2974. Yup, he can move it

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5 minutes ago, sooted72 said:

how about ceh? that would be my concern if i had like a 15 point cushion and no bullets. hes pretty highly owned, right? and a legit chance in this game he could put up a 30+. obviously its pretty unlikely but itd be in the back of my mind.

The guy sweating 17 pts has CEH

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9 minutes ago, sooted72 said:

how about ceh? that would be my concern if i had like a 15 point cushion and no bullets. hes pretty highly owned, right? and a legit chance in this game he could put up a 30+. obviously its pretty unlikely but itd be in the back of my mind.

 

3 minutes ago, FishNSuds said:

The guy sweating 17 pts has CEH

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18 minutes ago, FishNSuds said:

You can’t compare a week with 6 nfl teams on a bye with a non bye week. Many more zeros sitting in people’s lineups. Also most of these guys tonight aren’t highly owned. Excluding kickers and def, I saw Dobbins and brown in the low 1000 ownership range. Mahomes is at 939 but most of those owners have something on the board already 

My cut guess after only the Thursday game was 158.  With only 1 game left, what is yours?

 

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9 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

My cut guess after only the Thursday game was 158.  With only 1 game left, what is yours?

 

Stuck with just a phone so it’s hard to research to try and get historical perspective. Gut feel is that you are pretty much dead on and that’s impressive you came up with that number that early. 

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Just now, FishNSuds said:

Stuck with just a phone so it’s hard to research to try and get historical perspective. Gut feel is that you are pretty much dead on and that’s impressive you came up with that number that early. 

And for the record, I do think I will advance, but it's more fun to say the opposite.  :D

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- At least 61 entries will be using the entire score of either Mahomes or Jackson
- At least 82 entries will be using the entire score of either Kelce or Andrews
- At least 204 entries will be using the entire score of either Butker or Tucker
- At least 68 entries will be using the entire score of the Ravens D

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12 hours ago, TheWinz said:

Looks like the cut line sits at 149.6 going into Monday Night.  I have a cushion of 16.55 points and will use CEH if he scores over 8.7.  I am scared

 

11 hours ago, FishNSuds said:

 

Come on guys. Act like you’ve been there before. 17 and 22 points with bullets left is an auto advance. 17 without bullets is an auto advance 

 

2 hours ago, FishNSuds said:

You can’t compare a week with 6 nfl teams on a bye with a non bye week. Many more zeros sitting in people’s lineups. Also most of these guys tonight aren’t highly owned. Excluding kickers and def, I saw Dobbins and brown in the low 1000 ownership range. Mahomes is at 939 but most of those owners have something on the board already 

That's a fair point. Superficially, the Ravens and chiefs can have huge games which is a cause for concern. But if not many teams own the players it really won't matter.

Points above the cut line probably means slightly less than teams which would have to leap you. (I'm comfortable this week with a gap of 5,227 teams between me and the turk.)

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4 hours ago, apalmer said:

So SNF bumped the cutline up about 8 points? I would expect MNF to be about the same with 2 really good offenses, but also some good defenses. Since I'm currently sitting at about 12 points above the line, with no one playing tonight, I'll be sweating and cheering on both defenses.

If I recall the KC-LAR game (Week 11 of 2018) bumped the Cut ~15.  Going off old man memory, so correct me if I am way off... Something like 56-51? 

I doubt we see that kid of climb in Cut, but anything is possible....   So, @TheWinz Cut estimate of 158 is very reasonable.  I support that #. 

 

Going into MNF, sitting at shy of 183 (+33.1 above cut).  I am not confident, but I am hopeful I survive another week of this song & dance routine! 

I have no more Dance Tickets.... 

Edited by Birdie048
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Haven’t checked scores but feel pretty ok having Godkowski and quite a few TDs sprinkled around a 30 player rooster. Weak spot is TE sans Jarwin. That group already loaded our number on the Turk’s speed dial.

Will be happy each week the team stays at least .05 over the cut line.  

:shark:

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22 hours ago, QuizGuy66 said:

The current last place rooster has 33.45 and has Mahomes, CEH, D Thompson, Boykin, Hardman, Robinson, Hill, Watkins, Kelce, Butker, and the KC Defense to go :lmao:

-QG

This entry is now up to 126.20 -

Entry 107688

-QG

Edited by QuizGuy66
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1 minute ago, TheWinz said:

I lost Tarik Cohen.  WTF was I doing taking him anyways?

I almost took him. He got that contract which I thought meant he was going to play a bigger part in the offense. Most people expected CHI to be in negative game script for much of the season. There were some doubts this summer about Montgomery. Patterson.... is still Patterson. 

This is one of the reasons I wish the contest had bigger rosters and allowed you to take a $1 flyer on a guy like Nall. A POSSIBLE 46-man active roster(like an NFL team) would make things even more interesting. Doubt if many people would go that high(even with a bunch of $1 deep sleepers added) but it would be interesting. It would also target the FBG clientele. 

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1 hour ago, BoltBacker said:

I almost took him. He got that contract which I thought meant he was going to play a bigger part in the offense. Most people expected CHI to be in negative game script for much of the season. There were some doubts this summer about Montgomery. Patterson.... is still Patterson. 

This is one of the reasons I wish the contest had bigger rosters and allowed you to take a $1 flyer on a guy like Nall. A POSSIBLE 46-man active roster(like an NFL team) would make things even more interesting. Doubt if many people would go that high(even with a bunch of $1 deep sleepers added) but it would be interesting. It would also target the FBG clientele. 

"I can't believe these guys only go with 50-man roosters.  75 or bust for me!  And I cannot believe anyone would roster less than 3 punters!"

-QG

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9 hours ago, BoltBacker said:

I almost took him. He got that contract which I thought meant he was going to play a bigger part in the offense. Most people expected CHI to be in negative game script for much of the season. There were some doubts this summer about Montgomery. Patterson.... is still Patterson. 

This is one of the reasons I wish the contest had bigger rosters and allowed you to take a $1 flyer on a guy like Nall. A POSSIBLE 46-man active roster(like an NFL team) would make things even more interesting. Doubt if many people would go that high(even with a bunch of $1 deep sleepers added) but it would be interesting. It would also target the FBG clientele. 

We should definitely match NFL roster numbers as soon as they add IDP and punters to this contest.  :)

 

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