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Was last week’s debate Trump’s Army-McCarthy moment? (1 Viewer)

timschochet

timschochet

Footballguy
The latest NBC national poll is astounding- Biden has nearly doubled his lead from 2 weeks ago- from 8 points to 14 points, and it’s all due to the debate. 
Everything I’ve read about the 1954 Army/McCarthy televised hearings is that they exposed what Joe McCarthy was really like to the public, who in the past had only paid attention to his speeches. Insiders knew what McCarthy was like, and people who paid attention to politics (like all of us reading this post) but most folks didn’t follow too closely then and they don’t now. Once they were able to see what McCarthy was really like that was basically the end of him. He never came back. 
 

On Tuesday the public saw what Trump was really like behind the scenes. I think it woke some folks up. Was this his Army-McCarthy moment? 

 
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timschochet said:
The latest NBC national poll is astounding- Biden has nearly doubled his lead from 2 weeks ago- from 8 points to 14 points, and it’s all due to the debate. 
Everything I’ve read about the 1954 Army/McCarthy televised hearings is that they exposed what Joe McCarthy was really like to the public, who in the past had only paid attention to his speeches. Insiders knew what McCarthy was like, and people who paid attention to politics (like all of us reading this post) but most folks didn’t follow too closely then and they don’t now. Once they were able to see what McCarthy was really like that was basically the end of him. He never came back. 
 

On Tuesday the public saw what Trump was really like behind the scenes. I think it woke some folks up. Was this his Army-McCarthy moment? 
Click to expand...
Take it to your thread.

But, people already knew who he was.  Its hard to believe anyone older than 3.5 learned anything about Trump in the debate.

 
I want to say it's wishful thinking.  But immediately after the debate, I was struck by how many people were commenting on it on my Facebook feed.  "####show" was probably the most common response with most folks blaming both sides but ultimately, I think when people get down to it, they know it was Trump who put the #### in the show.

 
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The short answer is "No."

The longer answer is "No, for three reasons."

Reason #1 is that Trump's popularity (and support) is not declining in the way that McCarthy's popularity (and support) declined. Last week's debate was not a moment where his supporters abandoned him — it was a moment where undecided voters and moderates were reassured that Joe Biden was good enough (and mentally fit enough) to be President. The voters weren't reacting to Trump so much as they were reacting to Biden.

Reason #2 is that Trump did not attack a highly respected institution in the way that McCarthy attacked the Army. McCarthy completely misjudged how far his supporters would follow him.

Reason #3 is that the Army/McCarthy hearing was only one factor in McCarthy's decline. People tend to forget that McCarthy wasn't especially liked among his fellow Republicans in Congress (unlike Trump). The history books tend to prop up the big public moments in the Senate hearing, but they don't spend as much time talking about Edward R. Murrow's takedown earlier in the year, nor do they mention the fact that McCarthy blackmailed a fellow Senator by threatening to publicize his son's arrest for soliciting a male prostitute. That Senator (Lester Hunt of Wyoming) subsequently killed himself inside his Senate office. If Hunt doesn't kill himself, McCarthy probably doesn't get censured by the Senate.

 
timschochet said:
The latest NBC national poll is astounding- Biden has nearly doubled his lead from 2 weeks ago- from 8 points to 14 points, and it’s all due to the debate. 
Everything I’ve read about the 1954 Army/McCarthy televised hearings is that they exposed what Joe McCarthy was really like to the public, who in the past had only paid attention to his speeches. Insiders knew what McCarthy was like, and people who paid attention to politics (like all of us reading this post) but most folks didn’t follow too closely then and they don’t now. Once they were able to see what McCarthy was really like that was basically the end of him. He never came back. 
 

On Tuesday the public saw what Trump was really like behind the scenes. I think it woke some folks up. Was this his Army-McCarthy moment? 
Click to expand...
I remember Doris Kearns Goodwin wondering if the impeachment hearings would be Trump's Army-McCarthy moment. She asked if that was the point where the public would reach the saturation point with Trump's constant drama and histrionics as they had with McCarthy. Turned out not to be the case.

Unfortunately, there were few undecided voters left before the debate. And Trump's childish behavior should not have been an eye opener to anyone who has read his tweets, watched his rallies or have seen him talking to reporters at the WH. To paraphrase Denny Green: "He was who we though he was".

I think his unfortunate COVID diagnosis is more likely to have an impact. It pretty much destroyed his meme that it is pretty much harmless for most people, no worse "than a case of the sniffles" and also that there is no need to wear a mask. It is should be obvious to everyone but his most diehard supporters that he was wrong on both counts and this virus is a serious threat (as if 200k dead Americans before this weren't).

Whether the public will now turn on him remains to be seen, but I don't think he can recover in 30 days to undue the damage that has been done in the last week, complicating things by probably hindering his future campaign events and rallies. This was a momentum killer and there is simply not enough time IMO for him to get his mojo back.

 
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Joe Summer said:
The short answer is "No."

The longer answer is "No, for three reasons."

Reason #1 is that Trump's popularity (and support) is not declining in the way that McCarthy's popularity (and support) declined. Last week's debate was not a moment where his supporters abandoned him — it was a moment where undecided voters and moderates were reassured that Joe Biden was good enough (and mentally fit enough) to be President. The voters weren't reacting to Trump so much as they were reacting to Biden.

Reason #2 is that Trump did not attack a highly respected institution in the way that McCarthy attacked the Army. McCarthy completely misjudged how far his supporters would follow him.

Reason #3 is that the Army/McCarthy hearing was only one factor in McCarthy's decline. People tend to forget that McCarthy wasn't especially liked among his fellow Republicans in Congress (unlike Trump). The history books tend to prop up the big public moments in the Senate hearing, but they don't spend as much time talking about Edward R. Murrow's takedown earlier in the year, nor do they mention the fact that McCarthy blackmailed a fellow Senator by threatening to publicize his son's arrest for soliciting a male prostitute. That Senator (Lester Hunt of Wyoming) subsequently killed himself inside his Senate office. If Hunt doesn't kill himself, McCarthy probably doesn't get censured by the Senate.
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Good, thoughtful post here 

 
squistion said:
I remember Doris Kearns Goodwin wondering if the impeachment hearings would be Trump's Army-McCarthy moment. She asked if that was the point where the public would reach the saturation point with Trump's constant drama and histrionics as they had with McCarthy. Turned out not to be the case.

Unfortunately, there were few undecided voters left before the debate. And Trump's childish behavior should not have been an eye opener to anyone who has read his tweets, watched his rallies or have seen him talking to reporters at the WH. To paraphrase Denny Green: "He was who we though he was".

I think his unfortunate COVID diagnosis is more likely to have an impact. It pretty much destroyed his meme that it is pretty much harmless for most people, no worse "than a case of the sniffles" and also that there is no need to wear a mask. It is should be obvious to everyone but his most diehard supporters that he was wrong on both counts and this virus is a serious thread (as if 200k dead Americans before this weren't).

Whether the public will now turn on him remains to be seen, but I don't think he recover in 30 days to undue the damage that has been done in the last week, complicating things by probably hindering his future campaign events and rallies. This was a momentum killer and there is simply not enough time IMO for him to get his mojo back.
Click to expand...
This one as well. 

 
squistion said:
I remember Doris Kearns Goodwin wondering if the impeachment hearings would be Trump's Army-McCarthy moment. She asked if that was the point where the public would reach the saturation point with Trump's constant drama and histrionics as they had with McCarthy. Turned out not to be the case.

Unfortunately, there were few undecided voters left before the debate. And Trump's childish behavior should not have been an eye opener to anyone who has read his tweets, watched his rallies or have seen him talking to reporters at the WH. To paraphrase Denny Green: "He was who we though he was".

I think his unfortunate COVID diagnosis is more likely to have an impact. It pretty much destroyed his meme that it is pretty much harmless for most people, no worse "than a case of the sniffles" and also that there is no need to wear a mask. It is should be obvious to everyone but his most diehard supporters that he was wrong on both counts and this virus is a serious thread (as if 200k dead Americans before this weren't).

Whether the public will now turn on him remains to be seen, but I don't think he recover in 30 days to undue the damage that has been done in the last week, complicating things by probably hindering his future campaign events and rallies. This was a momentum killer and there is simply not enough time IMO for him to get his mojo back.
Click to expand...
With regard to the impeachment hearings, what Goodwin missed is that Trump himself never had to offer public testimony- it might have changed things if he had. 

 
Joe Summer said:
The short answer is "No."

The longer answer is "No, for three reasons."

Reason #1 is that Trump's popularity (and support) is not declining in the way that McCarthy's popularity (and support) declined. Last week's debate was not a moment where his supporters abandoned him — it was a moment where undecided voters and moderates were reassured that Joe Biden was good enough (and mentally fit enough) to be President. The voters weren't reacting to Trump so much as they were reacting to Biden.

Reason #2 is that Trump did not attack a highly respected institution in the way that McCarthy attacked the Army. McCarthy completely misjudged how far his supporters would follow him.

Reason #3 is that the Army/McCarthy hearing was only one factor in McCarthy's decline. People tend to forget that McCarthy wasn't especially liked among his fellow Republicans in Congress (unlike Trump). The history books tend to prop up the big public moments in the Senate hearing, but they don't spend as much time talking about Edward R. Murrow's takedown earlier in the year, nor do they mention the fact that McCarthy blackmailed a fellow Senator by threatening to publicize his son's arrest for soliciting a male prostitute. That Senator (Lester Hunt of Wyoming) subsequently killed himself inside his Senate office. If Hunt doesn't kill himself, McCarthy probably doesn't get censured by the Senate.
Click to expand...
The only point you made that I will offer a little pushback on: I’m not sure how much Republicans in Congress love Donald Trump. They support him because the base loves him. But do you really think they love him? 

 
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Joe Summer said:
Reason #2 is that Trump did not attack a highly respected institution in the way that McCarthy attacked the Army. McCarthy completely misjudged how far his supporters would follow him.
Click to expand...
Just for the sake of argument (well, just mild debate): One could argue that Trump attacked the U.S. military.  As Biden talked about the military service of his son, Beau, Trump jumped in to harp on son Hunter.  One could argue that Trump attacked minority/immigrant Americans.  He failed to denounce white supremacy and even bolstered the Proud Boys.  One could argue Trump attacked the elderly through his continued mockery of Joe Biden, a former Vice President, long-time public figure, and by all accounts a decent man who represents the dignity we'd all like to have as we grow old.  One could argue Trump attacked all Americans, many who live in fear of Covid or who have been hurt by the unfortunate shutdown, as he again dismissed it as no big deal.

Trump's debate performance was a visible insult to so many groups; so many people.  It was a damaging performance.

 
timschochet said:
The only point you made that I will offer a little pushback on: I’m not sure how much Republicans in Congress love Donald Trump. They support him because the base loves him. But do you really think they love him? 
Click to expand...
Republicans in Congress may not love Trump, but they defer to him completely and do not dare criticize him.

McCarthy was significantly criticized by members of his own party, both publicly (Sen. Ralph Flanders) and semi-privately (Dwight Eisenhower, who told the RNC that he was a "pimple on the path of progress").

 
timschochet said:
On Tuesday the public saw what Trump was really like behind the scenes. I think it woke some folks up. 
Click to expand...
Who are these folks who - after Trump has spent decades as a public figure and the last three and a half years as the actual President - just now figured out what Trump is really like?  Who learned anything new Tuesday night?  Everyone already knew what a stupid pile of humanoid trash he is, there's just a big chunk of the country who want that in the White House. 

 
I’d want to see a series of Biden +14 polls before making that conclusion. Here are all the post-debate national polls we have:

Biden +8
Biden +8
Biden +8
Biden +8
Biden +8
Biden +7
Biden +14
Biden +2
Biden +3
Biden +7
Biden +10
Biden +9
Biden +7
Biden +5
Biden +12

538’s national polling average has gone from Biden +7.1 to Biden +8.0 since the debate. Nice little shift but not a cataclysmic event.

 
Ignoratio Elenchi said:
Who are these folks who - after Trump has spent decades as a public figure and the last three and a half years as the actual President - just now figured out what Trump is really like?  Who learned anything new Tuesday night?  Everyone already knew what a stupid pile of humanoid trash he is, there's just a big chunk of the country who want that in the White House. 
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I follow things pretty closely and I’ve definitely said some very uncomplimentary things about our President and even I was in shock at the display the other night.  And Biden didn’t wrap himself in glory.  And it ultimately didn’t change anything for me but I was still a little in shock.

 
AAABatteries said:
I follow things pretty closely and I’ve definitely said some very uncomplimentary things about our President and even I was in shock at the display the other night.  And Biden didn’t wrap himself in glory.  And it ultimately didn’t change anything for me but I was still a little in shock.
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I don’t get what there was to be shocked about. What did you expect to see out of Trump? This is what he is. 

 
Ignoratio Elenchi said:
I don’t get what there was to be shocked about. What did you expect to see out of Trump? This is what he is. 
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I’m not sure I’ll ever not be surprised this dude is President - even after watching for almost 4 years.  I mean everybody knows what he is but did guy see the reaction of all the TV people?  Like others have said - even some Trump supporters said it was a #### show.  It was unreal.

 
Ignoratio Elenchi said:
I don’t get what there was to be shocked about. What did you expect to see out of Trump? This is what he is. 
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I don't think "shocked" is the right word, but Tuesday night caused me to lower my opinion of Trump (and of Biden, but not nearly as much).

 
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Ignoratio Elenchi said:
I don’t get what there was to be shocked about. What did you expect to see out of Trump? This is what he is. 
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What would have been shocking is he showed a lot of respect to Biden and Wallace. The debate is heated but he makes sure to allow everyone to make their point. Trump makes a couple of good points too based on well known factual information. At the end of the debate Biden performs the Triple Lindy to put to rest once and for all his physical condition. 

 
moleculo said:
I want to say it's wishful thinking.  But immediately after the debate, I was struck by how many people were commenting on it on my Facebook feed.  "####show" was probably the most common response with most folks blaming both sides but ultimately, I think when people get down to it, they know it was Trump who put the #### in the show.
Click to expand...
I'll say i was pleasantly surprised to see the same on mine

 
Don't forget the tax returns. The were released only a few days before the debate. I'd imagine that has had an impact on these polls as well.

 
Ignoratio Elenchi said:
Who are these folks who - after Trump has spent decades as a public figure and the last three and a half years as the actual President - just now figured out what Trump is really like?  Who learned anything new Tuesday night?
Click to expand...
My social circle is almost entirely pro-Trump. Yes, we already know what he's really like. Some of us are embarrassed by his antics, but others love it.

I don't think Tuesday changed much in their minds. Maybe a slight drop in terms of enthusiasm, but not enough to change votes.

 
Ignoratio Elenchi said:
Who are these folks who - after Trump has spent decades as a public figure and the last three and a half years as the actual President - just now figured out what Trump is really like?  Who learned anything new Tuesday night? 
Click to expand...
This is the brand of politics we get with corrupt rulers and an ignorant population.  Look at them, they nominated Donald Trump and Joe Biden to be President of the USA.  They think they’re performing a democratic service by voting for this.  

I think Trump’s cultlike following is still somehow less insulting than people that are gaslighting the entire country about who Joe Biden is, but goodness this is just an atrocity.  

 
No, because nobody stopped him.

That's the engine of his ascension. Once, Donald Trump was a kid who always got his way because his resources were high and he was never afraid to go low. As a rich adult in the bankrupt playground of 1970s Manhattan with the greatest mentor/fixer a go-low guy ever had (shades of McCarthy there, but only there), he soared thru every strata of Cafe Society. so then he took on America, media, politics, government. the loftiest institutions of the greatest nation ever have failed to hold him back, the 100,000,000 people who base their lives around obsessing about him have only given him more power like some ol Star Trek beast and, even if he is finally outvoted by them or undone by Mother Nature, he'll have left such shambles behind that our Humpty Dumpty republic may never be put together again. So no addled enabler in aviator glasses or nabob of nepotism is even gonna ruffle his feathers - he found the way to flabbergast us again, even tho we may be past the tipping point. What's wrong with America is that it got so flabby it allowed Donald J. Trump into the annals of history. goodonya -

 
ren hoek said:
This is the brand of politics we get with corrupt rulers and an ignorant population.  Look at them, they nominated Donald Trump and Joe Biden to be President of the USA.  They think they’re performing a democratic service by voting for this.  

I think Trump’s cultlike following is still somehow less insulting than people that are gaslighting the entire country about who Joe Biden is, but goodness this is just an atrocity.  
Click to expand...
Trump's cultlike following is the stupidest, scariest thing I've witnessed in national American politics in my lifetime. 

"Who Joe Biden is" is secondary in this context.  I get that people don't trust politicians in general, and to an extent Trump's rise to power is directly a result of people wanting something other than what they perceive as the same turd sandwich getting served up every four years.  But to the OP's point, the debate on Tuesday night would not have been an all-time ####show if it was Biden vs. any other candidate in history.  Trump is uniquely disastrous.  

 
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