ZWK 1,969 Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 This thread is for my analysis of the 2021 draft class (and other college players). Previously threads: 2020 draft class, 2019 draft class, 2018 draft class, 2017 draft class, 2016 draft class, 2015 draft class, 2014 draft class. I haven't been following college football much during this weird year, but I still have player stats spreadsheets. WR, RB, and QB spreadsheets are up and running. They're missing some stats like WR targets, and some of the ratings are a little screwy because there's so much of a difference between teams in games played (and SOS is messed up because of the lack of games between conferences). TE & pass rusher should get added at some point (perhaps not till after the season). Also: birthdates, VBD by draft pick (for generic rookie rankings), and dynasty rankings. My main source of data is cfbstats, and I also get some things from PFF, Rotowire, and other sources (with some stats not coming in until after the season is over). 11 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
rockaction 23,051 Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Always dig this thread. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ZWK 1,969 Posted December 2, 2020 Author Share Posted December 2, 2020 (edited) Let's start things off with some WR stats. Typically, the main receiving stats I highlight in these posts are: 25+ Yard Receptions per Game Market Share of Passing TDs Yards per Team Attempt Yards per Target (Though my spreadsheets also include some other stats, as does my ratings formula) These four are all efficiency stats, and it's much easier to put up huge numbers on efficiency stats over a smaller number of games, so I'm going to do some of these leaderboards a little differently with the plague year. With 25+ yard receptions, here's the leaders in # of 25-yard receptions minus number of games played (min 5 25+ yard receptions). This seems like a reasonable way to look at things because 1 25-yard reception per game is a pretty good level, so we're rewarding players who topped that number. If we just looked at 25-yard receptions per game that would make someone with 6 25-yarders in 4 games look better than they really are. 25+ Yard Receptions over 1 per Game 6 Jaelon Darden N Texas (13 in 7g) 6 Elijah Moore Miss (14 in 8g) 5 D'Wayne Eskridge W Mich (9 in 4g) 4 Romeo Doubs Nevada (10 in 6g) 4 Tylan Wallace Okla St (11 in 7g) 4 Jalen Tolbert USA (14 in 10g) 3 Jack Sorenson Miami (Oh) (6 in 3g) 3 Gunner Romney BYU (11 in 8g) 3 Jaylon Robinson UCF (12 in 9g) 3 Dyami Brown N Carolina (12 in 9g) 2 Jeff Foreman Ark St (5 in 3g) 2 Garrett Wilson Ohio State (6 in 4g) 2 Isaiah McKoy Kent State (6 in 4g) 2 Khalil Shakir Boise St (7 in 5g) 2 Ty Fryfogle Indiana (8 in 6g) 2 DeVonta Smith Alabama (10 in 8g) 2 Calvin Austin III Memphis (10 in 8g) 2 Jonathan Adams, Jr. Ark St (12 in 10g) 1 Jaylen Waddle Alabama (5 in 4g) 1 Reggie Roberson, Jr. SMU (5 in 4g) 1 Chris Olave Ohio State (5 in 4g) 1 Antonio Nunn Buffalo (5 in 4g) 1 Rashod Bateman Minnesota (6 in 5g) 1 Lavel Davis Jr. Virginia (6 in 5g) 1 Chris Autman-Bell Minnesota (6 in 5g) 1 T.J. Simmons WVU (6 in 5g) 1 Dahu Green Ark St (7 in 6g) 1 Bo Melton Rutgers (7 in 6g) 1 Terrace Marshall Jr. LSU (8 in 7g) 1 Jaquarii Roberson Wk Forest (8 in 7g) 1 Kenny Yeboah Miss (8 in 7g) 1 Donavon Greene Wk Forest (8 in 7g) 1 Marlon Williams UCF (9 in 8g) 1 Seth Williams Auburn (9 in 8g) 1 Javon McKinley Notre Dame (9 in 8g) 1 Sam Pinckney Georgia St (10 in 9g) Market share of receiving TDs has the same problem - having 6 of your team's 11 receiving TDs in 5 games is impressive, but not as impressive as the 55% market share makes it look. So here's the leaderboard in receiving TDs over 25% share. For example, 25% share of 11 TDs is 2.75, so if you have 6 instead that's 3.25 more for a score of +3.25. Again, 25% market share is pretty good. Here are the receivers with at least 2 TDs more than that. (For players that missed games, I have limited this to team passing TDs in the games that the player played.) Receiving TDs over 25% Market Share 7.75 Jaelon Darden N Texas (12/17 in 7g) 6 DeVonta Smith Alabama (12/24 in 8g) 5.75 Terrace Marshall Jr. LSU (10/17 in 7g) 5 Romeo Doubs Nevada (9/16 in 6g) 4.75 Kyle Pitts Florida (11/25 in 6g) 4 David Bell Purdue (7/12 in 5g) 3.75 Jonathan Adams, Jr. Ark St (12/33 in 10g) 3.5 Jalen Tolbert USA (8/18 in 10g) 3.5 Ty Fryfogle Indiana (7/14 in 6g) 3.5 Marlon Williams UCF (10/26 in 8g) 3.5 Kawaan Baker USA (8/18 in 10g) 3.5 Marcell Barbee Texas St (10/26 in 12g) 3.25 Khalil Shakir Boise St (6/11 in 5g) 3.25 Jahan Dotson Penn State (6/11 in 6g) 3 D'Wayne Eskridge W Mich (6/12 in 4g) 3 Zakhari Franklin UTSA (6/12 in 9g) 2.75 Treylon Burks Arkansas (6/13 in 7g) 2.5 Tylan Wallace Okla St (5/10 in 8g) 2.5 Sam Pinckney Georgia St (6/14 in 9g) 2.5 Tutu Atwell Louisville (7/18 in 9g) 2.5 Shi Smith S Carolina (4/6 in 8g) 2.5 Reggie Roberson, Jr. SMU (5/10 in 4g) 2.25 Jaivon Heiligh Coast Car (8/23 in 9g) 2.25 Zay Flowers BC (7/19 in 10g) 2 Dyami Brown N Carolina (8/24 in 9g) 2 Calvin Austin III Memphis (8/24 in 8g) 2 Bo Melton Rutgers (5/12 in 6g) For Yards Per Team Attempt, I didn't do anything clever. Just sticking with my standard thing of yards per team attempt with an asterisk for teams that haven't played many games (6 or less). Also, with this stat I am including all of the team's attempts even if the receiver didn't play that game. No pro-rating. Yards per Team Attempt 6.42 D'Wayne Eskridge W Mich * 4.54 Garrett Wilson Ohio State * 4.54 Elijah Moore Miss 4.38 DeVonta Smith Alabama 3.69 Jaelon Darden N Texas 3.69 Rashod Bateman Minnesota * 3.61 Isaiah McKoy Kent State * 3.48 Khalil Shakir Boise St * 3.34 Tylan Wallace Okla St 3.31 Dax Milne BYU 3.30 Dyami Brown N Carolina 3.23 Jaivon Heiligh Coast Car 3.23 Romeo Doubs Nevada * 3.20 Bailey Gaither SJSU * 3.16 Jalen Tolbert USA 3.03 Jaquarii Roberson Wk Forest 2.90 Ty Fryfogle Indiana * 2.81 Marlon Williams UCF 2.73 Sam Pinckney Georgia St 2.69 Jacob Cowing UTEP 2.67 Calvin Austin III Memphis 2.59 Dez Fitzpatrick Louisville 2.58 Gunner Romney BYU 2.58 Jonathan Adams, Jr. Ark St 2.57 Treylon Burks Arkansas 2.53 Terrace Marshall Jr. LSU 2.53 Jaylon Robinson UCF * less than 7 team games I don't have target data, so no YPT leaderboard. I haven't found a way to auto-include targets in my spreadsheets, so I'll probably wait till the offseason before I try to add it manually. Players on all three leaderboards (starting with the ones who are generally higher ranked): Jaelon Darden D'Wayne Eskridge Romeo Doubs * DeVonta Smith Jalen Tolbert Tylan Wallace Khalil Shakir * Ty Fryfogle * Dyami Brown Jonathan Adams, Jr. Terrace Marshall Jr. Marlon Williams Calvin Austin III Sam Pinckney Players on two leaderboards: Elijah Moore Garrett Wilson * Isaiah McKoy * Rashod Bateman * Gunner Romney Jaivon Heiligh Jaylon Robinson Treylon Burks Reggie Roberson, Jr. * Jaquarii Roberson Bo Melton * * less than 7 games played I listed more names on these leaderboards than I usually do, which seemed appropriate given the season's weirdness, but that means that it's a little less impressive than usual to be near the bottoms of these lists. Edited December 3, 2020 by ZWK 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
higgins 1,047 Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
EBF 1,924 Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 I don't plan to post much on FBGs in the future, but I just want to say that Pitts and Waddle are 🤩. I had the 1.04 dev pick in the summer and those are the two guys who really popped off the screen for me. Nothing that's happened since then has dampened my enthusiasm (though they've each picked up some durability questions). Pitts is doing crazy things for a college TE from a statistical standpoint, so I'm curious to see how much your system likes him. He's a TE in name only, as he really functions like a 6'6" WR on the field. The closest thing I've seen from a talent standpoint was a pre-injury Eifert, but Pitts looks more special and could be a top 10-15 pick. Waddle might be the best of the recent Alabama WRs. He's like the WR version of Darren Sproles. Lacks height, but super explosive and agile. Another guy I liked in the summer is USC WR Amon-Ra St. Brown. I tried to trade back into the devy draft to get him late, but wasn't able to make it happen. He seems like a really good day two player who can become a solid WR2 for some NFL team. He's not going to stand out in any one specific area, but the overall package of size, speed, route running, and position-specific skill makes him an appealing second-third tier prospect to me. 3 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Andy Dufresne 11,646 Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 (edited) I don't watch much college ball but the little I saw of Pitts he stood out to me as well. Tylan Wallace looks to have elite change of direction skills. Edited December 2, 2020 by Andy Dufresne 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Ashem 52 Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Boston 2,996 Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 DeVonta Smith reminds me of Marvin Harrison...he just knows how to play the WR position...he's going to have a great NFL career. 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
32 Counter Pass 570 Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Hey Z, How are you handling players who opted out or missed this season due injury? I am thinking specifically of Ja'Marr Chase and Justyn Ross. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ZWK 1,969 Posted December 2, 2020 Author Share Posted December 2, 2020 1 minute ago, 32 Counter Pass said: Hey Z, How are you handling players who opted out or missed this season due injury? I am thinking specifically of Ja'Marr Chase and Justyn Ross. I'll have to figure that out eventually. So far I've just posted some 2020 production numbers, which obviously don't include those guys. When I get around to making overall ratings I'll have to find a way to make them work. I might wind up trying to revamp my whole system, since I could probably come up with something better now if I made it a major project. I set up my approach years ago when we had less data, and it's not that great at accounting for age, missed games, or a player's whole trajectory across his college career. But maybe I'll just do a little tinkering to get things to work not-too-terribly with this one weird season. Ja'Marr Chase had dominant production in 2019 so he should come out looking great. Justyn Ross had a mediocre 2019 and a good 2018, so he'll probably come out looking like a decent but not great prospect. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
IHEARTFF 1,045 Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Love these threads. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Biabreakable 5,096 Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Good stuff ZWK. Sorry this year is going to be more of a pita than usual as far as data gathering and mining goes. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
lardonastick 942 Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Big fan, ZWK Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Zyphros 1,889 Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Love this thread, saw it on Twitter already but I find it easier to engage here. Can’t wait to talk 2021 prospects. I’ve got my top10’ish at WR and RB already. My biggest under the radar guy that I’m higher on than most is going to be Sage Surratt and he’s not on any of these lists. Totally agree with EBF that Pitts and Waddle look special in lots of ways Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Boston 2,996 Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Olave really intrigues' me...will he follow in the footsteps of Thomas and McLaurin and be even more productive in the NFL then he was at OSU...Day said he is the best WR he has ever been around: https://www.elevenwarriors.com/ohio-state-football/2020/11/118146/chris-olaves-legacy-continuing-to-grow-as-ohio-state-wide-receiver-keeps-making-big-plays 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ZWK 1,969 Posted December 2, 2020 Author Share Posted December 2, 2020 I realize that I didn't make a post after the 2019 season about how the returning players looked as prospects. Here's how the WRs looked based on their production through the 2019 season (according to my formulas, which are designed to evaluate receivers entering the NFL but which tell us something if applied to college players). Top Prospects: Ja'Marr Chase LSU Sage Surratt Wk Forest * Tamorrion Terry FSU Rashod Bateman Minnesota Tylan Wallace Okla St These 5 guys would've gotten a pretty clear thumbs up from my formula last offseason if they'd been entering the draft then. Chase & Wallace had amazing production. The others had very good production and good estimated size/athleticism. Surratt's track record was a little short compared to the others since he missed a few games in 2019 and wasn't great in 2018 (Wallace also missed some games in 2019 but he was great in 2018). Decent Prospects: Rondale Moore Purdue Justyn Ross Clemson Reggie Roberson, Jr. SMU * JD Spielman Nebraska DeVonta Smith Alabama Dyami Brown N Carolina Chatarius Atwell Louisville Marquez Stevenson Houston Keylon Stokes Tulsa These 9 guys rated out pretty well / decent / borderline thumbs up. Roberson, Smith, Spielman, and Atwell had very good production but issues with their estimated size/athleticism. Moore, Ross, Brown, Stevenson, and Stokes had only pretty good / borderline production (though Brown was close). Roberson gets an asterisk because he missed some games in 2019 (Rondale Moore missed even more games in 2019, but he makes this list on the strength of his 2018 production). Keep an Eye On: Austin Watkins Jr. UAB Nico Collins Michigan Isaiah McKoy Kent State Damonte Coxie Memphis Dazz Newsome N Carolina Chris Olave Ohio State Warren Jackson CSU Siaosi Mariner Utah State Brandon Arconado Wash St Ja'Marcus Bradley La-Lafytte JoJo Ward Hawai'i Hasise Dubois Virginia Whop Philyor Indiana Jaylen Waddle Alabama Victor Tucker Charlotte David Bell Purdue These are guys who wouldn't have gotten a thumbs up for 2020, but who were good enough through 2019 to have put themselves on the radar. If they took another step up in 2020, then their pre-2020 production would count in their favor. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ZWK 1,969 Posted December 2, 2020 Author Share Posted December 2, 2020 4 hours ago, Zyphros said: Love this thread, saw it on Twitter already but I find it easier to engage here. Can’t wait to talk 2021 prospects. I’ve got my top10’ish at WR and RB already. My biggest under the radar guy that I’m higher on than most is going to be Sage Surratt and he’s not on any of these lists. Totally agree with EBF that Pitts and Waddle look special in lots of ways Surratt is #2 on my list of top prospects through 2019, but obviously didn't appear on the lists for 2020 production since he's not playing. The main negative for him is that we're looking at 9 games of great production from him (since he missed a few games in 2019, opted out in 2020, and wasn't great in 2018), which is kind of thin for a track record. I'm still probably on board with him as early pick, pending more info. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Zyphros 1,889 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 5 hours ago, ZWK said: Surratt is #2 on my list of top prospects through 2019, but obviously didn't appear on the lists for 2020 production since he's not playing. The main negative for him is that we're looking at 9 games of great production from him (since he missed a few games in 2019, opted out in 2020, and wasn't great in 2018), which is kind of thin for a track record. I'm still probably on board with him as early pick, pending more info. Yeah my mistake, I didn't connect 1 to 1 that this was 2020 college production lists. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Biabreakable 5,096 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Having watched a few Gophers games this year I have seen body catching and drops from Bateman. He isn't doing as well as he did last season. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Zyphros 1,889 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 10 hours ago, Biabreakable said: Having watched a few Gophers games this year I have seen body catching and drops from Bateman. He isn't doing as well as he did last season. I see some people's rankings have him as a top5 WR in 2021. Definitely don't agree with that. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
HW_53 12 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 (edited) On 12/3/2020 at 8:48 AM, Zyphros said: I see some people's rankings have him as a top5 WR in 2021. Definitely don't agree with that. Was Tyler Johnson the better Gophers receiver all along? Thanks Z for providing the topic. Ton of great information in here.. p.s. Is there any way to hide your posts so none of my league mates see it? Always appreciated.. Edited December 5, 2020 by HW_53 drunk? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Bigboy10182000 3,546 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 My favorite thread. Thanks again @ZWKfor all the work! Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Biabreakable 5,096 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 2 hours ago, HW_53 said: Was Tyler Johnson the better Gophers receiver all along? My cousin who is a Gophers fan and has watched more of their games than me thinks so. He has a strong opinion about that. We have discussed this a few times over the past year. I am more on the fence about it. I think there are things Bateman does very well and he has more speed than Johnson does. I don't think he has the same level of body control, hands and toughness of Johnson. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. I think my cousin gives Bateman the stink eye a bit as Bateman is a good WR. At the same time I get where he is coming from because the offense does not run through Bateman the way it did with Johnson. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
HW_53 12 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 1 hour ago, Biabreakable said: My cousin who is a Gophers fan and has watched more of their games than me thinks so. He has a strong opinion about that. We have discussed this a few times over the past year. I am more on the fence about it. I think there are things Bateman does very well and he has more speed than Johnson does. I don't think he has the same level of body control, hands and toughness of Johnson. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. I think my cousin gives Bateman the stink eye a bit as Bateman is a good WR. At the same time I get where he is coming from because the offense does not run through Bateman the way it did with Johnson. Thanks for the insight.. in just watching some of Johnsons tape this year, he just seems to pass the eye test when it comes to being an effective mid level receiver. As far as Bateman goes, unfortunately he will be tossed into the 2020 evaluation salad that many will be. Bad year to be evaluated by an evaluator. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Biabreakable 5,096 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 2 minutes ago, HW_53 said: Thanks for the insight.. in just watching some of Johnsons tape this year, he just seems to pass the eye test when it comes to being an effective mid level receiver. As far as Bateman goes, unfortunately he will be tossed into the 2020 evaluation salad that many will be. Bad year to be evaluated by an evaluator. I saw him drop a possible TD on a slant route that I think the defender was able to get a piece of. With the Gophers, he was normally so money on this type of play. The commentator said that Johnson should have run his route more flat along the goal line to give Brady more space away from the defender. But the throw was almost behind him, so if he did that he would not have been in position to make the catch where it was thrown. I think it was a bad throw but I still would like to see Johnson catch that. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ZWK 1,969 Posted December 11, 2020 Author Share Posted December 11, 2020 (edited) Here's who my formula currently has as the top RB prospects in college football: Travis Etienne Clemson Javonte Williams N Carolina Najee Harris Alabama Breece Hall Iowa State * Kevin Harris S Carolina * Isaiah Spiller Texas A&M * Khalil Herbert Va Tech Javian Hawkins Louisville Elijah Mitchell La-Lafytte Michael Carter N Carolina Chuba Hubbard Okla St * not draft eligible Basically, it's giving a thumbs up to Etienne, Javonte Williams, and Najee Harris, and it wants to see more from everyone else. Etienne's rushing numbers are down this year, but his receiving, his amazing 2018-19 seasons, and his speed are enough to put him alone on top. Javonte Williams has been the best running back in college football this year by my formula, with amazing efficiency stats and good receiving production too. Najee Harris has multiple seasons of great production as a runner and receiver. Things get kind of messy after the top 3. For one thing, my RB ratings depend more than other positions on size & athleticism measurements, and advanced stats (especially yards after contact), which I won't have until the pre-draft process. I'm also don't even have size & athleticism estimates for most RBs since I haven't put much effort into updating that info. And then there's this unusual season, which has reduced the number of games played (which my formula counts against players because it sees it as a smaller workload which is a bad sign). Plus some RBs have opted out of this season entirely (or mostly), including two who my formula was high on at the end of last season: Kylin Hill and Kennedy Brooks. Also Kenny Gainwell (opt-out) and Max Borghi (back injury), who showed a lot of promise as receiving backs in 2019 (and I've heard a bunch of positive chatter about Gainwell). Here's how things looked according to my formula after last season. Top returning RBs through 2019 season Travis Etienne Clemson Najee Harris Alabama Kylin Hill Miss St Chuba Hubbard Okla St Kennedy Brooks Oklahoma Elijah Mitchell La-Lafytte Trey Ragas La-Lafytte CJ Verdell Oregon Javonte Williams N Carolina Josh Johnson La-Monroe Brenden Knox Marshall The top 6 (Etienne through Mitchell) already looked like strong NFL prospects at the time. Etienne & Harris are still up there in the current rankings. Hubbard & Mitchell's numbers are down this year. Hill played in just 3 games this year and was used more as a receiver than as a runner - not sure what's up with that. And Brooks opted out entirely. The next 5 were in a position where they needed to show something more for me to get excited about them, and one of them has done that: Javonte Williams. Verdell opted out so I guess he's looking the next-best out of this group. Bottom line is: thumbs up to Etienne, J Williams, and N Harris (currently in that order but that could change). After that... we'll see. It will take some time, work, and probably adjustments to my process to have a take on which other RBs are most promising. The leading contenders are the other RBs whose name appears in this post. Edited December 11, 2020 by ZWK 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
jtd13 572 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 4 hours ago, ZWK said: Here's who my formula currently has as the top RB prospects in college football: Travis Etienne Clemson Javonte Williams N Carolina Najee Harris Alabama Breece Hall Iowa State * Kevin Harris S Carolina * Isaiah Spiller Texas A&M * Khalil Herbert Va Tech Javian Hawkins Louisville Michael Carter N Carolina Chuba Hubbard Okla St * not draft eligible Basically, it's giving a thumbs up to Etienne, Javonte Williams, and Najee Harris, and it wants to see more from everyone else. Etienne's rushing numbers are down this year, but his receiving, his amazing 2018-19 seasons, and his speed are enough to put him alone on top. Javonte Williams has been the best running back in college football this year by my formula, with amazing efficiency stats and good receiving production too. Najee Harris has multiple seasons of great production as a runner and receiver. Things get kind of messy after the top 3. For one thing, my RB ratings depend more than other positions on size & athleticism measurements, and advanced stats (especially yards after contact), which I won't have until the pre-draft process. I'm also don't even have size & athleticism estimates for most RBs since I haven't put much effort into updating that info. And then there's this unusual season, which has reduced the number of games played (which my formula counts against players because it sees it as a smaller workload which is a bad sign). Plus some RBs have opted out of this season entirely (or mostly), including two who my formula was high on at the end of last season: Kylin Hill and Kennedy Brooks. Also Kenny Gainwell (opt-out) and Max Borghi (back injury), who showed a lot of promise as receiving backs in 2019 (and I've heard a bunch of positive chatter about Gainwell). Here's how things looked according to my formula after last season. Top returning RBs through 2019 season Travis Etienne Clemson Najee Harris Alabama Kylin Hill Miss St Chuba Hubbard Okla St Kennedy Brooks Oklahoma Elijah Mitchell La-Lafytte Trey Ragas La-Lafytte CJ Verdell Oregon Javonte Williams N Carolina Josh Johnson La-Monroe Brenden Knox Marshall The top 6 (Etienne through Mitchell) already looked like strong NFL prospects at the time. Etienne & Harris are still up there in the current rankings. Hubbard & Mitchell's numbers are down this year. Hill played in just 3 games this year and was used more as a receiver than as a runner - not sure what's up with that. And Brooks opted out entirely. The next 5 were in a position where they needed to show something more for me to get excited about them, and one of them has done that: Javonte Williams. Verdell opted out so I guess he's looking the next-best out of this group. Bottom line is: thumbs up to Etienne, J Williams, and N Harris (currently in that order but that could change). After that... we'll see. It will take some time, work, and probably adjustments to my process to have a take on which other RBs are most promising. The leading contenders are the other RBs whose name appears in this post. Verdell is playing, but it looks like he's been dinged up the last couple games. Your analysis has me intrigued by the 2022 RB class, at least at the top. I hadn't heard of Harris before. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
jtd13 572 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 I'm surprised to not see Jermar Jefferson anywhere on the RB list. He has been prolific in his 4 games. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ZWK 1,969 Posted December 11, 2020 Author Share Posted December 11, 2020 4 hours ago, jtd13 said: I'm surprised to not see Jermar Jefferson anywhere on the RB list. He has been prolific in his 4 games. He's next on the list after Carter & Hubbard. Only playing 4 games this year is a big negative in my formula. He was down even farther because I had him estimated as being real slow (based on Draftscout's estimate from a year ago); I updated to the current Draftscout estimated speed + size which moved him up behind Hubbard. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ZWK 1,969 Posted December 11, 2020 Author Share Posted December 11, 2020 I went back and updated size+speed information for the top 25 RBs by production. Now none of them have missing data (except Kevin Harris, who doesn't seem to have a 40 time estimate on draftscout) and none of them are relying on estimates from last year. A few guys rose in the rankings because of this, mainly from faster estimated speed. Biggest risers are Jermar Jefferson (as mentioned in my post from a few minutes ago) and Elijah Mitchell who should actually make the leaderboard near the bottom between Javian Hawkins and Michael Carter (I've edited that post to add him). If I extended the leaderboard, the next 10 players on the list are: Jermar Jefferson, Sincere McCormick, Chris Rodriguez Jr., Kyren Williams, Tyler Allgeier, Mohamed Ibrahim, Tank Bigsby, Jaret Patterson, Leddie Brown, and Trey Ragas. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
joey 1,497 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 :converse: Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ZWK 1,969 Posted December 21, 2020 Author Share Posted December 21, 2020 Here are the top seasons according to my QB efficiency metric by quarterbacks who are still in college: Mac Jones Alabama 2020 Justin Fields Ohio State 2019 Kaleb Eleby W Mich 2020 * Zach Wilson BYU 2020 Grayson McCall Coast Car 2020 Kyle Trask Florida 2020 Tanner Morgan Minnesota 2019 Trevor Lawrence Clemson 2020 Matt Corral Miss 2020 Sam Howell N Carolina 2020 Kedon Slovis USC 2019 Desmond Ridder Cincinnati 2020 Trevor Lawrence Clemson 2019 McKenzie Milton UCF 2017 Dorian Thompson-Robinson UCLA 2020 * Tyler Shough Oregon 2020 * Trevor Lawrence Clemson 2018 D'Eriq King Houston 2018 Jack Coan Wisconsin 2019 Justin Fields Ohio State 2020 * Layne Hatcher Ark St 2020 Brady White Memphis 2019 Ian Book Notre Dame 2018 Spencer Rattler Oklahoma 2020 Sam Ehlinger Texas 2019 K.J. Costello Stanford 2018 McKenzie Milton UCF 2018 * less than 9 games The top tier here rate among the best seasons we've seen on this metric (they're both in the top 11 since 2008), the next tier is also elite college production, and the next tier is also good. So all of the FBS quarterbacks who are in the round 1-2 discussion are getting a thumbs up here (Lawrence, Fields, Wilson, Trask, Mac Jones). I think that's partly a sign of this being a strong QB class, and partly this style of analysis of QBs is getting less useful with the changes to the college passing environment. I haven't looked at FCS numbers, so this doesn't tell us anything about Trey Lance. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ZWK 1,969 Posted December 21, 2020 Author Share Posted December 21, 2020 College Football 2020: PFF's All-American Team We have apparently just seen a record-breaking year for PFF grades at all four fantasy-relevant positions QB Mac Jones - overall grade beats Joe Burrow RB Javonte Williams - rushing grade beats Ronald Jones WR DeVonta Smith - receiving grade beats Amari Cooper (Power 5 only) TE Kyle Pitts - receiving grade (previous recordholder unspecified) 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Biabreakable 5,096 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 8 hours ago, ZWK said: Here are the top seasons according to my QB efficiency metric by quarterbacks who are still in college: Mac Jones Alabama 2020 Justin Fields Ohio State 2019 Kaleb Eleby W Mich 2020 * Zach Wilson BYU 2020 Grayson McCall Coast Car 2020 Kyle Trask Florida 2020 Tanner Morgan Minnesota 2019 Trevor Lawrence Clemson 2020 Matt Corral Miss 2020 Sam Howell N Carolina 2020 Kedon Slovis USC 2019 Desmond Ridder Cincinnati 2020 Trevor Lawrence Clemson 2019 McKenzie Milton UCF 2017 Dorian Thompson-Robinson UCLA 2020 * Tyler Shough Oregon 2020 * Trevor Lawrence Clemson 2018 D'Eriq King Houston 2018 Jack Coan Wisconsin 2019 Justin Fields Ohio State 2020 * Layne Hatcher Ark St 2020 Brady White Memphis 2019 Ian Book Notre Dame 2018 Spencer Rattler Oklahoma 2020 Sam Ehlinger Texas 2019 K.J. Costello Stanford 2018 McKenzie Milton UCF 2018 * less than 9 games The top tier here rate among the best seasons we've seen on this metric (they're both in the top 11 since 2008), the next tier is also elite college production, and the next tier is also good. So all of the FBS quarterbacks who are in the round 1-2 discussion are getting a thumbs up here (Lawrence, Fields, Wilson, Trask, Mac Jones). I think that's partly a sign of this being a strong QB class, and partly this style of analysis of QBs is getting less useful with the changes to the college passing environment. I haven't looked at FCS numbers, so this doesn't tell us anything about Trey Lance. I have heard some folks compare this upcoming QB draft class to the class of 1983 which is of course hyperbolic but maybe they are that good as prospects? I would think one of these QB decides to not declare if the competition is that good. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ZWK 1,969 Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 I have updated my WR production formula for 2020. Here's how it ranks the most productive receivers of the 2020 season, on a per game basis: DeVonta Smith Alabama (12g) Jaylen Waddle Alabama (5g) Chris Olave Ohio State (6g) D'Wayne Eskridge W Mich (6g) Terrace Marshall Jr. LSU (7g) Elijah Moore Miss (8g) Jaquarii Roberson Wk Forest (9g) Treylon Burks Arkansas (9g) Ty Fryfogle Indiana (8g) Jahan Dotson Penn State (9g) Dyami Brown N Carolina (11g) Jaelon Darden N Texas (9g) Garrett Wilson Ohio State (7g) Sam Pinckney Georgia St (10g) Bailey Gaither SJSU (7g) Bo Melton Rutgers (9g) Jalen Tolbert USA (11g) Khalil Shakir Boise St (7g) Romeo Doubs Nevada (9g) Marlon Williams UCF (8g) Kyle Pitts Florida (8g) Tylan Wallace Okla St (10g) Calvin Turner Hawai'i (9g) Simi Fehoko Stanford (6g) Kadarius Toney Florida (11g) David Bell Purdue (6g) Bell is the last guy with a production rating over 4.0 on my scale, which is what I usually think of as the cutoff for WR prospects. Though some other guys not listed are still in the borderline / gray zone. Note that this is just 2020 production, not career production or overall prospect rating. Ja'Marr Chase didn't play in 2020 so he doesn't show up on this list, but he will be at or near the top in career production & overall prospect rating once I've finished updating those (and I see him as the top WR prospect). That will also make a big difference for some other guys like Rashod Bateman & Tutu Atwell. Note that this is just showing per game production. It isn't adjusting at all for the fact that production is more random and less informative over a smaller sample size. So ranking highly on this list is not as impressive for the guys who played fewer games. Similarly, there is a less clear signal for guys who missed the list and only played a few games - it's more like an "incomplete" rather than a failing grade. Still, I really would like to see a guy stand out in college before liking him as a prospect, so I am wary of guys who didn't make the cut this year and haven't had that caliber of season in previous year. The two big updates I had to make to my spreadsheet in order to generate this near-final version of my production rankings were adding target data (which I got from Rotowire) and changing my source for strength of schedule ratings. SRS-based strength of schedule ratings were broken by the lack of interconference games, so I switched to FEI for this year's SOS adjustment. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
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