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49ers jump up to #3 pick in draft


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1 minute ago, Deamon said:

Telling Shanny they really like Player X does absolutely nothing to diminish the trade value of Darnold to another team.

Game theory disagrees. But to concede your point a bit, that doesn't mean everyone in the NFL is smart enough not to let things leak. They most certainly aren't.

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Guess Jax is dumb to tell people they want Lawrence then too?

Not a good comparison. Lawrence is (was?) by far the consensus #1 player. Letting everyone assume you want Lawrence is fine when there is (was?) such a gap to #2. Until last Friday, there was no consensus #2.

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20 minutes ago, rockaction said:

As for Saleh, I highly doubt he told SF who the Jets were taking.

Unless they turned down the Miami package from SF, in which case they pretty much told SF exactly who they were taking, indirectly.

There are many forms of communication. 

And honestly this is all silly semantics anyway, since obviously the worst thing that happens to the 49ers at 3 is the Jets take someone other than Wilson. Oh noooooooo! :o 

Clearly they’re comfortable with whichever they get or (stop me if you’ve heard this one before) they wouldn’t have made the deal, knowing only 2 of the 4 top QB prospects would make it to them at 3.

or 3/5 if we’re believing the stuff Mac’s agent is throwing out there. 

So in that light I’m not sure why any of this is such a drama. 

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Just now, LawFitz said:

Game theory disagrees. But to concede your point a bit, that doesn't mean everyone in the NFL is smart enough not to let things leak. They most certainly aren't.

Not a good comparison. Lawrence is (was?) by far the consensus #1 player. Letting everyone assume you want Lawrence is fine when there is (was?) such a gap to #2. Until last Friday, there was no consensus #2.

Or you could take it even further that the Jets are 100% set on staying in the #2 spot (especially with a QB needy SF behind them, there's no way they're going to risk losing their qb of choice by trading back a few spots).  So by helping SF, you could be hurting Miami, or all the AFC teams that SF might play.  Again, it's also not "leaking" info if him and Shanny keep their conversation tight lipped.

Like Hot Sauce Guy mentioned, there are NFL insiders who have been asked, "do you think Saleh told Shanny who he was taking at 2?"and responded "absolutely. no question". 

These things happen.  I'm not an expert on it by any means, and am wrong a lot with my predictions (I thought that Fields might have been who the Jets took at #2 and very well could be wrong), but I do have some connections in the league that lead me to believe that GM's and others in the league tell each other a lot more than what ever hits the media. 

Saleh could have been having a beer with Shanny and just said 'if we go qb, it's ______, but don't tell anyone".  I don't think this is a massive far fetched, insane conspiracy theory, dumbest move ever, freak out worthy thing that you guys are making that conversation out to be.  It happens more than you think and I personally believe (as do many people inside the league with more knowledge than us) that this conversation happened.

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17 minutes ago, LawFitz said:

This.

Even if everyone thinks the Jets will pick a QB, it still would be dumb to confirm it - even to a good buddy in another org - because it would set them back in any Darnold trade negotiations. Even if it were to result in only getting a 5th rounder instead of a 4th b/c teams press the gas on them, knowing they are desperate to drop Darnold, it would be worth keeping all cards close to the vest for now.

Aside from that, you also have draft trade capital leverage at play - the best negotiating position is the one where you know your cards, and you have the ability to telegraph whichever player you want to a team approaching you, as your intended target - based on your particular dealings with and knowledge of that particular team's intentions.

Why freely give up these two levers? Because you used to work for Shanahan. Not impossible, but highly unlikely in such a cut-throat business.

It could be relevant that the #1 candidate to acquire Darnold was *also* the 49ers. 

So all of this might have just be part and parcel with trade negotiations. I don't see who's throat is getting cut by telling Shanahan, or even implying to Shanahan that they're taking Wilson 2nd. 

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^^^Heels are dug in on both sides of this issue. No one wants to change their minds, and that's fine. We've all said more than enough from both perspectives, so let's move on. Arguing endlessly about this relatively less meaningful detail is just cluttering at this point.

Best to get back to whom the 9ers might actually be targeting. I still doubt it's Big Mac - for me, the BPA QB would be Fields. I think the current Niners brass will ultimately come to that conclusion. We'll see.

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6 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

It could be relevant that the #1 candidate to acquire Darnold was *also* the 49ers. 

So all of this might have just be part and parcel with trade negotiations. I don't see who's throat is getting cut by telling Shanahan, or even implying to Shanahan that they're taking Wilson 2nd. 

Exactly.  Many in the football world agree with this, yet the Jets fans just can't seem to wrap their head around it.

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8 minutes ago, LawFitz said:

^^^Heels are dug in on both sides of this issue. No one wants to change their minds, and that's fine. We've all said more than enough from both perspectives, so let's move on. Arguing endlessly about this relatively less meaningful detail is just cluttering at this point.

Best to get back to whom the 9ers might actually be targeting. I still doubt it's Big Mac - for me, the BPA QB would be Fields. I think the current Niners brass will ultimately come to that conclusion. We'll see.

Agreed. 100%. I think all the Big Mac talk is coming from the Big Mac camp trying to boost his day 1 value. 

I have a hard time believing the Niners take someone other than Fields, because he looks like a toolsey player who just ran a 4.4 40.  

That said, if Fields keeps looking this good, maybe the Jets do take him. 

Either way, the Niners didn't move up this high to take Mac Jones, and if they did I wouldn't be at all surprised to see them deal back down if that eventually becomes who they want. As I'd mentioned, I am of the belief that the Panthers would love nothing more than to leapfrog division rival Atlanta & potentially take their next franchise QB/Ryan replacement from them. 

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7 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Agreed. 100%. I think all the Big Mac talk is coming from the Big Mac camp trying to boost his day 1 value. 

I have a hard time believing the Niners take someone other than Fields, because he looks like a toolsey player who just ran a 4.4 40.  

That said, if Fields keeps looking this good, maybe the Jets do take him. 

Either way, the Niners didn't move up this high to take Mac Jones, and if they did I wouldn't be at all surprised to see them deal back down if that eventually becomes who they want. As I'd mentioned, I am of the belief that the Panthers would love nothing more than in order to leapfrog division rival Atlanta & potentially take their next franchise QB/Ryan replacement from them. 

Lynch & Shanahan have shown me enough savvy in recent drafts to believe they'll either take Fields at 3 or trade down, like you are suggesting if they really want Mac. I think once they fully digest Fields' tape, they will sprint to the podium to draft him, regardless of the offers coming in. He is an absolute beast IMO. Rough around the edges some, but so are Wilson and that ugly girl who will go #1 - none of these QBs are Andrew Luck or Peyton Manning coming out of college.

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2 minutes ago, LawFitz said:

Lynch & Shanahan have shown me enough savvy in recent drafts to believe they'll either take Fields at 3 or trade down, like you are suggesting if they really want Mac. I think once they fully digest Fields' tape, they will sprint to the podium to draft him, regardless of the offers coming in. He is an absolute beast IMO. Rough around the edges some, but so are Wilson and that ugly girl who will go #1 - none of these QBs are Andrew Luck or Peyton Manning coming out of college.

Agree that Fields is going to go much higher than many people are suggesting.  People calling him a 2nd round guy or think he's sliding down into the double digits are only focusing on the name of his school.  I can see him going 2 or 3 for sure.

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22 minutes ago, LawFitz said:

Lynch & Shanahan have shown me enough savvy in recent drafts to believe they'll either take Fields at 3 or trade down, like you are suggesting if they really want Mac. I think once they fully digest Fields' tape, they will sprint to the podium to draft him, regardless of the offers coming in. He is an absolute beast IMO. Rough around the edges some, but so are Wilson and that ugly girl who will go #1 - none of these QBs are Andrew Luck or Peyton Manning coming out of college.

If we go by ZWK’s grades quite a few of these QB’s had better years last year than Luck’s last year.

This is the best QB class I’ve seen in all my time playing fantasy football. I’m just a dude on the internet but I actually think fighting over the top five (TLaw, Fields, Wilson, Lance, Jones) is silly season. They all look like potential studs to me. I have potential questions about some of Lance’s throwing volume but he has a heck of a skill set.

If we want to talk fantasy, the guys who are going to get rushing yds are way more valuable but Mac Jones threw the ball deep downfield as good anyone last year no matter what circus throws Fields and Wilson are capable of. I look forward to seeing what all these guys can do and hope all of them succeed. The NFL desperately needs it right now, especially with how devastating Burrow’s injury was. 

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6 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

The first time I heard it locally was after Wilson's pro-day and that was only from some other pundits and other team's scouts. The Jets have leaked nothing - half the fans still think the Jets are sticking with Darnold at this point. They are sill doing their due diligence I'd imagine.

 

How local are you where that's your experience? His pro day was a few days ago and the papers have been talking about him for weeks. 

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If the jets keep #2, they are taking qb. If they trade #2, it's for a qb. So the first 3 picks are qb and I'd bet by the time we are done, all 5 will be done by 8, and can't rule the first 5 are all qb. Because Atlanta could go qb and could also deal to carolina or denver and get their guy, and cincy could very easily deal to the Denver slot and get a tackle or receiver at 9. So whoever the jets like, looks like someone is taking wilson at 2. 

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40 minutes ago, LongDuckDong said:

If the jets keep #2, they are taking qb. If they trade #2, it's for a qb. So the first 3 picks are qb and I'd bet by the time we are done, all 5 will be done by 8, and can't rule the first 5 are all qb. Because Atlanta could go qb and could also deal to carolina or denver and get their guy, and cincy could very easily deal to the Denver slot and get a tackle or receiver at 9. So whoever the jets like, looks like someone is taking wilson at 2. 

I would be willing to bet any amount of money that Atlanta is not going to trade with Carolina. 

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3 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I would be willing to bet any amount of money that Atlanta is not going to trade with Carolina. 

I see where you are coming from...but I watched Redskins and Eagles trade with each other...so anything can happen lol 

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56 minutes ago, ffmail4me said:

I see where you are coming from...but I watched Redskins and Eagles trade with each other...so anything can happen lol 

Yes but it's rare and would never do it for an early round stud QB.  Big difference between a 57 year old McNabb and the 4th overall pick :P

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11 hours ago, RUSF18 said:

How local are you where that's your experience? His pro day was a few days ago and the papers have been talking about him for weeks. 

In the market. The day after the pro day it was on the back page of Daily News - I’m not saying it’s the first time that Wilson has been mentioned as a target but it was when the momentum began they were “locked in” to Wilson.

I’d love to see links from anyone claiming otherwise. Prior to that every possibility had been brought up and discussed including Darnold being the guy and the Jets trading back.

Douglas attended Fields pro-day yesterday  - of course that could be due diligence but nothing is written in stone yet.

Sorry for being sucked in - I’ll ignore  the noise from now on. 

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If you look back to mocks in January, a lot of them have Fields at #2. Also a good handful of mocks where the 2nd qb taken was by Detroit, so there’s that...point is, until Wilson’s pro day fields was liked by a lot of pundits, then it flipped to “Wilson is consensus #2.” Just pointing that out fwiw.

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20 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Those two statements say the same thing.

saying there’s a 0.00% chance he didn’t tell him = a greater than 0% chance.

HTH

I bet there is 0.00% chance anyone in here cares about yalls cat fight. 😂

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18 hours ago, Deamon said:

Or you could take it even further that the Jets are 100% set on staying in the #2 spot (especially with a QB needy SF behind them, there's no way they're going to risk losing their qb of choice by trading back a few spots).  So by helping SF, you could be hurting Miami, or all the AFC teams that SF might play.  Again, it's also not "leaking" info if him and Shanny keep their conversation tight lipped.

Like Hot Sauce Guy mentioned, there are NFL insiders who have been asked, "do you think Saleh told Shanny who he was taking at 2?"and responded "absolutely. no question". 

These things happen.  I'm not an expert on it by any means, and am wrong a lot with my predictions (I thought that Fields might have been who the Jets took at #2 and very well could be wrong), but I do have some connections in the league that lead me to believe that GM's and others in the league tell each other a lot more than what ever hits the media. 

Saleh could have been having a beer with Shanny and just said 'if we go qb, it's ______, but don't tell anyone".  I don't think this is a massive far fetched, insane conspiracy theory, dumbest move ever, freak out worthy thing that you guys are making that conversation out to be.  It happens more than you think and I personally believe (as do many people inside the league with more knowledge than us) that this conversation happened.

Hmm, I thought Joe Douglas was the GM, not Saleh.  Is Saleh going to piss off his GM by leaking info to another team?  Seems unlikely to me.  :shrug:

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1 minute ago, Foosball God said:

Hmm, I thought Joe Douglas was the GM, not Saleh.  Is Saleh going to piss off his GM by leaking info to another team?  Seems unlikely to me.  :shrug:

Again, no reason Joe would be pissed. It doesn't hurt the team at all and could actually help them if they helped sf. Joe is also close with sf's GM. These guys talk. Could also have been a "damn fields and Wilson are both so good, we're locked into one of them. You should trade with Miami so they don't take one". 

Who knows what the convo was. Maybe there was no convo. But I personally believe, and many NFL insiders believe, that there was one. 

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14 minutes ago, Deamon said:

Again, no reason Joe would be pissed. It doesn't hurt the team at all and could actually help them if they helped sf. Joe is also close with sf's GM. These guys talk. Could also have been a "damn fields and Wilson are both so good, we're locked into one of them. You should trade with Miami so they don't take one". 

Who knows what the convo was. Maybe there was no convo. But I personally believe, and many NFL insiders believe, that there was one. 

That doesn't make a whole lot of sense.  If Miami wanted one they would take one, not trade out.  In fact, one might say that by doing that they would be helping Miami by giving them a trade partner and Miami picking up a bunch of draft capital.

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Just now, Foosball God said:

That doesn't make a whole lot of sense.  If Miami wanted one they would take one, not trade out.  In fact, one might say that by doing that they would be helping Miami by giving them a trade partner and Miami picking up a bunch of draft capital.

Miami had 4 offers anyways. You could also say it helps by making sure an NFC team gets the 3rd pick. 

We're splitting hairs. The net positive/negative of chatting and letting your buddy know you love ______ is as close to zero as it gets. These chats happen, and many others believe it did.  Beating a dead horse here though. 

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Anyone want to weigh in on Atlanta at #4? I don't want to start a new topic or thread on that slot yet but I love this thread, one of the best in the off season we've had so far IMHO, lot of great takes. Let's assume that Atlanta does not take a QB or QB4 off the board. I don't see the Falcons going QB with Matt Ryan structured as he is plus he really hasn't fallen off that much, maybe in another couple years but not this year. 

-If Atlanta were to stay at 4, Pitts(too high?), WR(they already got good ones) and they got Ridley towards the end of the 1st, they can get one early 2nd likely if they felt they needed to, Sewell? I love what I am seeing of Sewell, he could be the real gem in all of this mess in the Top 10 but that's another topic. 

-Assume the Falcons trade down, who is going to take that spot? Carolina, Denver, Chicago, New England, seems like those could be the big movers or trade partners. 

If the Falcons settle in Tackle for the OL which would help amplify what they are good at, OFFENSE. More time for Ryan to throw darts and probably would help a running game that at times disappears completely. But assume they like Sewell who I think Cinci would jump on if he falls to No 5. But if Sewell can go at 4, who will be the pick at 5? Cinci doesn't seem to like to trade but I would think they could be talked into moving down if someone wanted to jump in for QB4 at that point. 

Just some thoughts I was trying to work out...so maybe we could do a quick run of what we think or know. 

1 Jax- QB Trevor Lawrence

2 NY Jets-QB Zach Wilson 

3 San Fran-QB Justin Fields

4 Atlanta-OT Penei Sewell

5 Cincinnati-WR Ja'Marr Chase...I believe in the kid they got from Clemson last year so I'm not sure this is exactly what they need to do but he is a former teammate of Burrow and Joe might ask them if the opp to get him were available...we'll see I guess. But it's not illogical they could go this way. 

And that leads me to the Miami Dolphins at 6...with Lance still in play and teams thirsting for a QB, this has got to be a prime spot for Miami to milk a few more future picks and then pick the wrong guys but you gotta like where they are sitting right now. I would prefer they go Defense Front-7 needs a lot of work still here, don't let the 10-6 record fool you. 

MoP Wish List for Miami: LB-Micah Parsons, Edge-Kwitty Paye and Jayson Oweh, Safety-Trevon Moehrig, those 4 guys represent some major hits for any team that drafts them and I wish Miami could get 2 of them and tell the Media to go bleep off and shoot them a bird and just keep stacking the Defense. 2nd/3rd go get a WR, OL, RB/TE, something like that. 

Cheers!

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23 minutes ago, Ministry of Pain said:

Anyone want to weigh in on Atlanta at #4?

Unless they love the "4th best" QB in this draft, I think its very likely Atlanta trades down (I'm sure they're already getting inquiries).

Matt Ryan turns 36 in a little over a month, which isn't that old relative to how much longer QBs are playing but it's starting to get close to needing to at least worry about the future QB, so I wouldn't rule out taking a QB for themselves.

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25 minutes ago, Ministry of Pain said:

Anyone want to weigh in on Atlanta at #4? I don't want to start a new topic or thread on that slot yet but I love this thread, one of the best in the off season we've had so far IMHO, lot of great takes. Let's assume that Atlanta does not take a QB or QB4 off the board. I don't see the Falcons going QB with Matt Ryan structured as he is plus he really hasn't fallen off that much, maybe in another couple years but not this year. 

-If Atlanta were to stay at 4, Pitts(too high?), WR(they already got good ones) and they got Ridley towards the end of the 1st, they can get one early 2nd likely if they felt they needed to, Sewell? I love what I am seeing of Sewell, he could be the real gem in all of this mess in the Top 10 but that's another topic. 

-Assume the Falcons trade down, who is going to take that spot? Carolina, Denver, Chicago, New England, seems like those could be the big movers or trade partners. 

If the Falcons settle in Tackle for the OL which would help amplify what they are good at, OFFENSE. More time for Ryan to throw darts and probably would help a running game that at times disappears completely. But assume they like Sewell who I think Cinci would jump on if he falls to No 5. But if Sewell can go at 4, who will be the pick at 5? Cinci doesn't seem to like to trade but I would think they could be talked into moving down if someone wanted to jump in for QB4 at that point. 

Just some thoughts I was trying to work out...so maybe we could do a quick run of what we think or know. 

1 Jax- QB Trevor Lawrence

2 NY Jets-QB Zach Wilson 

3 San Fran-QB Justin Fields

4 Atlanta-OT Penei Sewell

5 Cincinnati-WR Ja'Marr Chase...I believe in the kid they got from Clemson last year so I'm not sure this is exactly what they need to do but he is a former teammate of Burrow and Joe might ask them if the opp to get him were available...we'll see I guess. But it's not illogical they could go this way. 

And that leads me to the Miami Dolphins at 6...with Lance still in play and teams thirsting for a QB, this has got to be a prime spot for Miami to milk a few more future picks and then pick the wrong guys but you gotta like where they are sitting right now. I would prefer they go Defense Front-7 needs a lot of work still here, don't let the 10-6 record fool you. 

MoP Wish List for Miami: LB-Micah Parsons, Edge-Kwitty Paye and Jayson Oweh, Safety-Trevon Moehrig, those 4 guys represent some major hits for any team that drafts them and I wish Miami could get 2 of them and tell the Media to go bleep off and shoot them a bird and just keep stacking the Defense. 2nd/3rd go get a WR, OL, RB/TE, something like that. 

Cheers!

Given that the Falcons already have Ryan and their phone is likely ringing off the hook, I see them trading down to scoop up more picks. So IMO QBs will go 1-2-3-4. Lots of mocks have the Bengals taking Sewell, so they will likely stay put and pick him.

That gets us to the Dolphins pick and the option to take either an impact skill position player or an impact defender. I'm not sure there will be as big a demand for the 5th QB, so I am guessing the Dolphins will pick someone. I mean, they aren't about to trade with the Patriots to let them get a QB.

The Lions could benefit to trade down and acquire more picks, so they might trade with someone. Both the Panthers and Broncos have been linked to wanting a QB, but again, if their guy isn't there who knows if they will battle it out for the last big name one on the board. The Bears and Patriots would also be candidates.

I would be surprised in NE invested what it took to move up to #4. MAYBE if there was a QB left they wanted they would move up some, but I don't see BB giving two first round picks and more to take a QB. But they've gone off script this whole free agency period, so maybe Bill will get aggressive and make a big splash. He could also be getting to the point where he is setting things up for his final stand, so maybe he would be less concerned about how the team looks 5 years from now.

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36 minutes ago, Ministry of Pain said:

Anyone want to weigh in on Atlanta at #4? I don't want to start a new topic or thread on that slot yet but I love this thread, one of the best in the off season we've had so far IMHO, lot of great takes. Let's assume that Atlanta does not take a QB or QB4 off the board. I don't see the Falcons going QB with Matt Ryan structured as he is plus he really hasn't fallen off that much, maybe in another couple years but not this year. 

-If Atlanta were to stay at 4, Pitts(too high?), WR(they already got good ones) and they got Ridley towards the end of the 1st, they can get one early 2nd likely if they felt they needed to, Sewell? I love what I am seeing of Sewell, he could be the real gem in all of this mess in the Top 10 but that's another topic. 

-Assume the Falcons trade down, who is going to take that spot? Carolina, Denver, Chicago, New England, seems like those could be the big movers or trade partners. 

One issue that should be mentioned is Matt Ryan's contract.  If he is cut before the 2022 season there is 40 mill in dead cap.  So, logic suggests he is the guy for 2 more years.  That is also what I said about Wentz before last season, so..........point is, salary cap logic says Ryan is starter for 2 more years.  

Another issue that should be mentioned is that Panthers are most likely trade up candidate, we should assume Falcons won't allow them to get a QB with their pick, unless CAR really overpays.  

If you trade further down than CAR, you in a completely different tier of player. No Pitts/Chase/Sewell for you.  

I think the Falcons should be thinking long and hard about QB.  What if Lance/Fields is available, and the Falcons have him ranked as the #2, and close to Lawerence?  Close enough to think he's a franchise starter.  Is having Matt Ryan playing well for two years (maybe) enough to pass on a franchise QB?

Especially considering what the 49ers just paid.  The Falcons aren't planning on being top 5 for the next two years, so where is Ryan's replacement coming from?  Three 1st round picks, and a 3rd?  That's massive.  If the Falcons think they can stay put, and a franchise QB just falls to them at #4, then I think it's worth taking him, and simply working out the next two years.  I would rather spend a year dealing with uncomfortable questions, than wondering what our post Ryan plan is, and at that age Ryan can fall apart at any time.  

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Based on PFF scores from last year, here are teams that would / should / could consider a QB of the guys that didn't go 1-2-3 in the draft:

Ryan, ATL, 83.1
Jones, NYG, 78.4
Fitzgerald, WFT, 75.1
Goff, DET, 71.4
Newton, NEP, 70.9
Dalton, CHI, 69.6
Bridgewater, CAR, 66.0
Tua, MIA, 65.4
Lock, DEN, 63.5
Hurts, PHI, 56.2

Ryan is still playing well and IMO the Falcons' poor record was not his fault. It appears both MIA and PHI are willing to give their guys another year. I doubt the Giants move on from Jones, but I threw them in the mix as they are close enough draft pick wise to make a move if they wanted to. Bottom line, there are plenty of teams that would at least consider moving up if the price was right and their guy was still on the board.

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1 hour ago, IHEARTFF said:

Someone is trading up for Fields or Lance at 4. Either Denver or someone else. 

Why wouldn’t Atlanta want one of them?

I think it’s more likely that if the Niners fall in love with Jones, they deal to CAR who’d probably love to scoop their division rival. 

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1 minute ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Why wouldn’t Atlanta want one of them?

I think it’s more likely that if the Niners fall in love with Jones, they deal to CAR who’d probably love to scoop their division rival. 

They might but Matt Ryan is not the problem there. 

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2 hours ago, Ministry of Pain said:

 

MoP Wish List for Miami: LB-Micah Parsons, Edge-Kwitty Paye and Jayson Oweh, Safety-Trevon Moehrig, those 4 guys represent some major hits for any team that drafts them and I wish Miami could get 2 of them and tell the Media to go bleep off and shoot them a bird and just keep stacking the Defense. 2nd/3rd go get a WR, OL, RB/TE, something like that. 

Cheers!

I would very much like to see what a Dolphins offense with Pitts and Gesicki would look like.  

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3 minutes ago, IHEARTFF said:

They might but Matt Ryan is not the problem there. 

No, but he will be in a couple years. I’d be none shocked to see them pick Lance/Fields after the Niners. 

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4 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

No, but he will be in a couple years. I’d be none shocked to see them pick Lance/Fields after the Niners. 

Like I mentioned with Brady/Garoppolo and Rodgers/Love, there really wasn't a pressing need to draft a QB. The Patriots drafted Jimmy G when Brady was 36. Brady continued to play so well that they couldn't afford to keep both Brady and Garoppolo and they wasted 4 years of having Garoppolo on their roster and couldn't keep him. As it turns out, Garoppolo started two games for NE and basically played 6 halves of football in 4 seasons. A case can certainly be made that NE would have been better off drafting someone else with the pick they used on Garoppolo.

The Packers drafted Love when Rodgers was 36, and Love will carry a clipboard and never play. Love's contract could run out before ever getting a chance to play, making his trade value minimal. And on top of that, the Packers could have no idea if they wanted to re-sign him as their starter as he wouldn't have played. And they would have wasted a low dollar rookie deal on a first round QB that didn't play. Since a lot of that hasn't happened yet, we can tell if that's how things will play out, but that's the path the Packers are on. A case could already be made that had they used their first round pick on someone else, the team would have improved way more than drafting someone that never played last year.

As for Ryan, his PPF grades his first 4 seasons averaged 78.1, his next for seasons averaged 81.7, and his past 5 seasons averaged 84.9. He hasn't been getting worse . . . he's been getting better. By drafting QB4 in the draft (also with a 36-year-old QB), the Falcons will either have to sit the 4th pick in the draft or move on from a very productive QB. IMO, both of those are not what's best for the team. QB play is not what ails the Falcons.

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5 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

Like I mentioned with Brady/Garoppolo and Rodgers/Love, there really wasn't a pressing need to draft a QB. The Patriots drafted Jimmy G when Brady was 36. Brady continued to play so well that they couldn't afford to keep both Brady and Garoppolo and they wasted 4 years of having Garoppolo on their roster and couldn't keep him. As it turns out, Garoppolo started two games for NE and basically played 6 halves of football in 4 seasons. A case can certainly be made that NE would have been better off drafting someone else with the pick they used on Garoppolo.

The Packers drafted Love when Rodgers was 36, and Love will carry a clipboard and never play. Love's contract could run out before ever getting a chance to play, making his trade value minimal. And on top of that, the Packers could have no idea if they wanted to re-sign him as their starter as he wouldn't have played. And they would have wasted a low dollar rookie deal on a first round QB that didn't play. Since a lot of that hasn't happened yet, we can tell if that's how things will play out, but that's the path the Packers are on. A case could already be made that had they used their first round pick on someone else, the team would have improved way more than drafting someone that never played last year.

As for Ryan, his PPF grades his first 4 seasons averaged 78.1, his next for seasons averaged 81.7, and his past 5 seasons averaged 84.9. He hasn't been getting worse . . . he's been getting better. By drafting QB4 in the draft (also with a 36-year-old QB), the Falcons will either have to sit the 4th pick in the draft or move on from a very productive QB. IMO, both of those are not what's best for the team. QB play is not what ails the Falcons.

They can play Matt Ryan for two years, get rid of him at 38, and have their starter ready to go, 3 years of control before a contract question.

Seems viable.  

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Just now, massraider said:

They can play Matt Ryan for two years, get rid of him at 38, and have their starter ready to go, 3 years of control before a contract question.

Seems viable.  

Sitting the 4th pick in the draft for two years seems like a waste. Ryan is signed for three years. Even if they find a suitor for a 38 year old QB in 2023 (who knows what they could get for him), they would take a $15M cap hit. And the team that acquired him would owe him $28M for only season. Not sure if the trade part would work out, but the overarching point would be having the 4th pick in the draft sitting for 2 seasons seems like a waste of 2 years for someone picked to be a huge impact player.

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16 minutes ago, massraider said:

They can play Matt Ryan for two years, get rid of him at 38, and have their starter ready to go, 3 years of control before a contract question.

Seems viable.  

This just doesn't happen anymore.  If you're going QB at pick 4, he's starting this year.  MAYBE next year, but no chance 2 years on the bench.

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I want Miami to keep moving back, want nothing to do with the top4 QBs, top 3 WRs, TE is interesting only because I think he is by far the real goods and the dropoff is massive and the TE class last year stunk, it's like taking Kittles in the 2nd of FF Drafts if you see the connection here. 

But otherwise I would prefer they get in the Parsons-Paye-Moerhig sweepstakes, you understand? When did Defense become second fiddle in this league? They cut KVN, shipped off Shaq Lawson and have almost nothing to replace it. WIlkins sucks and is a starting front 7 player, Ogbah last year of his deal, Raekwon Davis is the only DT on the roster basically...

All this offense for Tua is total BS to me. They need more frontline defensive help. The Patriots won Super Bowls without high profile WRs and flashy players, I expect nothing less from an ex-Pats Head Coach who already has anointing oils waiting for him. 

Let's get serious about real team needs. Miami is spending $25M on Parker and Fuller, they need a top 5 WR like they need a hole in the head right now. Get serious about getting better and get these gawd awful OLines and DLines in shape. That's how you win. 

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13 minutes ago, Deamon said:

This just doesn't happen anymore.  If you're going QB at pick 4, he's starting this year.  MAYBE next year, but no chance 2 years on the bench.

I agree it doesn't happen anymore.  

It's really been decades since it did happen with any regularity, maybe before any of us were watching football.  

I'm not sure that's a really strong argument for why it's not a viable strategy here.  This presupposes that Lance/Jones/Fields is a guy the Falcons love.  That's a big IF.  

If they feel like he's he next 15 years after Ryan, seems to me there should be serious thought.  

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I think we should also start dropping names in this thread and perhaps even an ongoing Title Change as we progress towards the Draft, the unofficial Official without a bunch of clickbait. 

Any of the guys I have mentioned...Parsons, Paye, Phillips, Moehrig, the Defensive Studs just sitting there for the taking in the middle of the 1st and even later...what is your take on steals in the 1st? Why is it I feel like the same teams picking in the Top 10 with maybe an exception or two are going to be right back here in a year or two doing the same damn thing...anyone got the same vibration?

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4 minutes ago, massraider said:

 

I agree it doesn't happen anymore.  

It's really been decades since it did happen with any regularity, maybe before any of us were watching football.  

I'm not sure that's a really strong argument for why it's not a viable strategy here.  This presupposes that Lance/Jones/Fields is a guy the Falcons love.  That's a big IF.  

If they feel like he's he next 15 years after Ryan, seems to me there should be serious thought.  

Ya I don't really disagree with the Falcons taking a QB there.  But I would be shocked if he didn't see the field for 2.5 years after he was selected #4.

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2 hours ago, massraider said:

One issue that should be mentioned is Matt Ryan's contract.  If he is cut before the 2022 season there is 40 mill in dead cap.  So, logic suggests he is the guy for 2 more years.  That is also what I said about Wentz before last season, so..........point is, salary cap logic says Ryan is starter for 2 more years.  

Another issue that should be mentioned is that Panthers are most likely trade up candidate, we should assume Falcons won't allow them to get a QB with their pick, unless CAR really overpays.  

If you trade further down than CAR, you in a completely different tier of player. No Pitts/Chase/Sewell for you.  

I think the Falcons should be thinking long and hard about QB.  What if Lance/Fields is available, and the Falcons have him ranked as the #2, and close to Lawerence?  Close enough to think he's a franchise starter.  Is having Matt Ryan playing well for two years (maybe) enough to pass on a franchise QB?

Especially considering what the 49ers just paid.  The Falcons aren't planning on being top 5 for the next two years, so where is Ryan's replacement coming from?  Three 1st round picks, and a 3rd?  That's massive.  If the Falcons think they can stay put, and a franchise QB just falls to them at #4, then I think it's worth taking him, and simply working out the next two years.  I would rather spend a year dealing with uncomfortable questions, than wondering what our post Ryan plan is, and at that age Ryan can fall apart at any time.  

Agree with this, they may not be picking this high again for awhile.  There will still be a top flight QB prospect at 4 even if QBs go 1,2,3

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14 minutes ago, Ministry of Pain said:

I want Miami to keep moving back, want nothing to do with the top4 QBs, top 3 WRs, TE is interesting only because I think he is by far the real goods and the dropoff is massive and the TE class last year stunk, it's like taking Kittles in the 2nd of FF Drafts if you see the connection here. 

But otherwise I would prefer they get in the Parsons-Paye-Moerhig sweepstakes, you understand? When did Defense become second fiddle in this league? They cut KVN, shipped off Shaq Lawson and have almost nothing to replace it. WIlkins sucks and is a starting front 7 player, Ogbah last year of his deal, Raekwon Davis is the only DT on the roster basically...

All this offense for Tua is total BS to me. They need more frontline defensive help. The Patriots won Super Bowls without high profile WRs and flashy players, I expect nothing less from an ex-Pats Head Coach who already has anointing oils waiting for him. 

Let's get serious about real team needs. Miami is spending $25M on Parker and Fuller, they need a top 5 WR like they need a hole in the head right now. Get serious about getting better and get these gawd awful OLines and DLines in shape. That's how you win. 

They also had Brady.  Trying to apply the Pats run to another franchise is folly, take it from a Lions fan that just sat through the Quinn/Patricia debacle

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10 minutes ago, Ministry of Pain said:

I think we should also start dropping names in this thread and perhaps even an ongoing Title Change as we progress towards the Draft, the unofficial Official without a bunch of clickbait. 

Any of the guys I have mentioned...Parsons, Paye, Phillips, Moehrig, the Defensive Studs just sitting there for the taking in the middle of the 1st and even later...what is your take on steals in the 1st? Why is it I feel like the same teams picking in the Top 10 with maybe an exception or two are going to be right back here in a year or two doing the same damn thing...anyone got the same vibration?

Phillips might not be available later in the draft now.  If he passes medicals, the fact is EDGE guys with 10 sacks and freaky workout numbers don't fall.   

All those EDGE guys went bonkers, and all the newer mocks will reflect that, you watch.  Phillips might be top 12.  

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