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It's a big day as the Footballguys Detailed Stat Projections are LIVE. Not just live, but for a limited time, FREE. And we don't hold back. We project detailed stats down to the last yard for every player that matters and we give them all to you. These are the foundation of Footballguys and they're the biggest way we help you win more at Fantasy Football.

We've got a new lineup of projectors and a completely revamped system behind the scenes that we hope will help our folks deliver better content to you. A ton of new features for the projectors to help us dial these in against historical norms and also to prevent a mistake with player ID's and such. 

A big thing is we want to offer these for folks to see now for free so they can see what they'll be getting when these go behind the premium content paywall later.

I also know folks here are some of the sharpest football minds out there. Would love to hear constructive feedback and discussion. If you see something you feel differently about, please state what you think and why. Much thanks. 

2021 Projections Live Here.

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Amon-Ra St Brown DET 44.3-521-2.6

Weird the projection for #14 is only for the first half of the season but I'm sure they'll be an update down the road.

;)

Nice work and thank you FBGs staff.

👊🏻

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Thanks for posting this, Joe. I've already found and fixed some goofiness but I anticipate more that I'll discover or simply need to re-examine. This is where you come in. Your perspective is always valuable to me. We may not agree, but I'll always consider and give it another look to see if I've missed or overlooked a particular data point, insight you've highlighted or something else. Feedback is a gift. Tell me my baby is ugly. It helps me see anomalies I'd otherwise never see. My teflon suit is ready. Fire me from the cannon like Super Dave. Bring it.

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31 minutes ago, Bob Henry said:

Thanks for posting this, Joe. I've already found and fixed some goofiness but I anticipate more that I'll discover or simply need to re-examine. This is where you come in. Your perspective is always valuable to me. We may not agree, but I'll always consider and give it another look to see if I've missed or overlooked a particular data point, insight you've highlighted or something else. Feedback is a gift. Tell me my baby is ugly. It helps me see anomalies I'd otherwise never see. My teflon suit is ready. Fire me from the cannon like Super Dave. Bring it.

Bob is the best.  Reached out yesterday via twitter with some feedback on James Robinson - Bob replied, fixed the issue and thanked me.  Footballguys rocks.  And the SuperDave reference?  Icing on the cake. 😎

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20 minutes ago, battlestar said:

Bob is the best.  Reached out yesterday via twitter with some feedback on James Robinson - Bob replied, fixed the issue and thanked me.  Footballguys rocks.  And the SuperDave reference?  Icing on the cake. 😎

Well, thanks Battlestar. I'm good at a few things. Projections being one of those, but dropping music references. move quotes or otherwise useless trivia like the back of a baseball card is also among them. 3% get them. 97% are like what the funk is this dude all about. Imagine my wife thinking that every day. That said, bring it folks! Your critical eye is a bonus for me. If we disagree, i'll let ya know why. If we don't, i'll own that too and let you know that I've updated whatever it is.  

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59 minutes ago, Bob Henry said:

97% are like what the funk is this dude all about.

Do not circumvent the language filter

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Pretty in line with what I am thinking, but since you are looking for some alternate opinions I have a few.

I think Atlanta's passing game is a little too high, at least Ryan and Ridley anyway. I don't think Pitts will make much of a difference in passing volume for the team, he likely just muddles it for the other weapons. That is kinda already baked into Julio's price, but not Ridley's for whatever reason. I think Ridley is more a WR2 unless Julio misses a lot of time again this season.

I think the Steelers passing game is underrated. The volume is so high, and despite the Najee Harris pick, will likely continue to do so. The WR's are still young and improving, and Big Ben is in no danger of losing his job, even if he's a league average starter at this point. I think Ben is a solid QB2, and both JuJu, and especially Diontae are pretty underrated. I don't see much difference between the Falcons and Steelers offenses, but there sure is in rankings.

I'll admit I'm probably in the minority here, as Javonte Williams was my favorite RB in the draft, but I think he should probably be even or ahead of Melvin Gordon. They traded up to get him, and they clearly didn't love Gordon last year. Gordon just gives off a bit of a Mark Ingram vibe to me, where he's almost a DND guy. 

Damien Harris isn't a huge issue, but I think there is just so much uncertainty in NE, that its hard to put any RB of theirs in the top-40. 200 carries feels like an absolute ceiling. This could be a 4 guy RBBC.

I think the Chargers offense in general is underrated. The OL took a monster step forward, and unless Herbert regresses, this is a top-10 offense, that is also pretty focused through 2 guys. Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen, I think, are both top-10 guys at their positions, Ekeler might even be top-5. With Joe Lombardi coming over to call plays from NO, I think he might very well see this as his new Kamara/Thomas.

Miles Sanders is another RB I see as underrated. I don't really see the competition in that backfield. A day-3 rookie, and a castoff with a shot knee doesn't worry me. 238 touches seems really low to me, I think 300 is more likely. Add in a better offense, with bigger holes thanks to a healthy OL, and I think Sanders is an ideal RB2. I think he's likely to be the player people were hoping he'd be a year ago. 

Tyler Lockett seems high to me. He was crazy inconsistent a year ago, and its likely that Metcalf fully takes the #1 job this season. Add in drafting a WR with their top pick, and Carroll constantly saying they want to get back to their roots, and I think Lockett is more of a WR3, 1100-9 feels pretty close to his best case scenario. 

Chris Godwin is a another guy I think is more of a WR3. Perhaps it was due to injury, but he also didn't seem to really have the rapport with Brady that Evans did. I think its possible a full offseason with Antonio Brown could lead to them overlapping a bit. I kind of think Tampa might be a bit of an offense to avoid at ADP in general other than Brady. Just so many options.

The Vikings passing game feels underrated to me. The OL is improved, and the playaction game should continue to be lethal. Jefferson is ranked about where I'd have him, but I think Thielen and Smith are low. I think coverage will shift to Jefferson as the #1, which is going to lead to Thielen seeing the least coverage he's seen in years. I think 990-9 is actually pretty close to his floor. I also think with Rudolph gone, and no #3 WR of note added, Smith is the very clear #3 target in the passing game, and 500-5 is probably close to his floor as well. I think Smith is a low-end TE1, more than the likes of Gronk or Higbee...

Which brings me to my last disagreement, I'm not seeing it with Tyler Higbee at all. He's been in the league for 5 years and was basically useful for 5 games of that. I don't think Everett leaving suddenly brings him back to that level. When he had that stretch in 2019, the Rams were without Everett, Cooks wasn't fully healthy, and they faced an all time bad TE defense twice. Now, they have greatly added to the WR position, they have a new QB who is more of a deep ball thrower, and a better running game than they had then. I think Higbee is closer to TE20 than TE10.

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18 hours ago, travdogg said:

Miles Sanders is another RB I see as underrated.

Concur but feel free to keep that view to yourself as I love where his price is going to land in redraft rn.

Ditto for Mr. Swift in the D. With precious few weapons besides Hock but a good [O-line] - and this is not hyperbolic - which could easily move into elite status with the addition of their 20 year old right tackle. After catching 46 balls while playing 38% of the snaps as a rookie, I don't see any reason to believe he should be projected to haul in a mere 58 this fall. Looking at Anthony Lynn's usage of his RB1s as a HC and OC, if healthy - always the caveat - he could easily be looking at 80-85 receptions. We know who Jamaal Williams is, and he's a great presence in the locker room and a capable backup but please. The 7th rounder and the UDFAs are no threat.

In my league format, De'Andre is the RB11 per the FBGs consensus. That's a good 7-9 places above where most sites have him. Probably a very justifiable top ranking considering who is in front of him. But in my [very biased opinion whilst sippinging Honolulu blue kool aid & wearing my silver sunglasses) it's still not close to his ceiling this year.

:2cents:

Edited by BobbyLayne
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@travdoggInteresting comments, appreciate the feedback. Here is how I feel about each of these situations, and how they were applied in my projections:

 

Quote

I think Atlanta's passing game is a little too high, at least Ryan and Ridley anyway. I don't think Pitts will make much of a difference in passing volume for the team, he likely just muddles it for the other weapons. That is kinda already baked into Julio's price, but not Ridley's for whatever reason. I think Ridley is more a WR2 unless Julio misses a lot of time again this season.

Initially, I kind of agreed with this in spirit. I have Atlanta slightly slower in pace, and it is easy to expect Arthur Smith to want to pound the rock after what he did in Tennessee. But I think that the Falcons will, in all likelihood, still have to throw the ball a decent amount. They have a low win total, and all of the offensive personnel would dictate that they would be best trying to score through the air. In particular, I think it becomes rather difficult to justify keeping Ryan and not spending the fourth pick on a QB if you aren't going to try to maximize Ryan. Smith's passing attacks have also been pretty concentrated, so I think they will feed Ridley/Julio/Pitts a great deal, and the ancillary targets (Gage, Hurst) will suffer.

Quote

 

I think the Steelers passing game is underrated. The volume is so high, and despite the Najee Harris pick, will likely continue to do so. The WR's are still young and improving, and Big Ben is in no danger of losing his job, even if he's a league average starter at this point. I think Ben is a solid QB2, and both JuJu, and especially Diontae are pretty underrated. I don't see much difference between the Falcons and Steelers offenses, but there sure is in rankings.

 

Big change in offensive coordinator and philosophy coming I think here. Pittsburgh drafted a RB early, and also worked on the OL a little. My expectation is a higher run rate than we've seen the last couple of seasons BUT maybe some more vertical passing if Ben can get it there. We saw last year that even with all of the volume in the world, these WRs struggled for consistent production. I don't mind being a little bearish here, though I still come out slightly ahead of the pack on JuJu.

Quote

I'll admit I'm probably in the minority here, as Javonte Williams was my favorite RB in the draft, but I think he should probably be even or ahead of Melvin Gordon. They traded up to get him, and they clearly didn't love Gordon last year. Gordon just gives off a bit of a Mark Ingram vibe to me, where he's almost a DND guy. 

I could see this one resolving itself before the off-season is over. Denver can save a bunch against the cap by trading Gordon. If he's there in September though, it is difficult to see this not being a somewhat messy committee. Maybe I should move their rush shares a little closer (46% and 36% for me respectively) with the idea in mind that Williams gets more work as the year goes on. I'll take another look at that. I do think that Williams' potential pass-game usage is up in the air though, as Gordon has years of pass-catching experience in the league already, and Williams lost a ton to a fourth-round pick in Carter.

Quote

Damien Harris isn't a huge issue, but I think there is just so much uncertainty in NE, that its hard to put any RB of theirs in the top-40. 200 carries feels like an absolute ceiling. This could be a 4 guy RBBC.

I agree with this and my projections reflect it. I do still like White in PPR because of the pass-catching, but it is worth noting that my projections are bullish on Mac Jones starts and opportunity, and the more Cam we get, the lower it would push White.

Quote

I think the Chargers offense in general is underrated. The OL took a monster step forward, and unless Herbert regresses, this is a top-10 offense, that is also pretty focused through 2 guys. Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen, I think, are both top-10 guys at their positions, Ekeler might even be top-5. With Joe Lombardi coming over to call plays from NO, I think he might very well see this as his new Kamara/Thomas.

Agree here as well, though I think the comp is more a fit with what Lombardi did in Detroit as the OC. Tons of RB passing, though perhaps a true committee in terms of RB rush attempts. I have Ekeler projected RB8. Allen I can see playing more of a Golden Tate-type of role here (those Tate years were very good tho!). The Chargers have a way better supporting cast than what would allow the full MT treatment imo. 

Quote

Miles Sanders is another RB I see as underrated. I don't really see the competition in that backfield. A day-3 rookie, and a castoff with a shot knee doesn't worry me. 238 touches seems really low to me, I think 300 is more likely. Add in a better offense, with bigger holes thanks to a healthy OL, and I think Sanders is an ideal RB2. I think he's likely to be the player people were hoping he'd be a year ago. 

There are a couple of notable pitt-falls for Sanders imo. For starters, I would expect Hurts to command a good share of rush attempts, which shrinks the pie overall. We've also seen Nick Siriani split up the RB touches a ton. I think there will be somewhat of a rotation, even if Sanders is the lead. The Gainwell pick in particular intrigues me, because I do like him as a prospect. Assuming at least one each of Scott/Gainwell and Howard/Kerryon are weekly actives, Sanders is tricky for me.

Quote

Tyler Lockett seems high to me. He was crazy inconsistent a year ago, and its likely that Metcalf fully takes the #1 job this season. Add in drafting a WR with their top pick, and Carroll constantly saying they want to get back to their roots, and I think Lockett is more of a WR3, 1100-9 feels pretty close to his best case scenario. 

I think we often over-state consistency, especially since Lockett and Metcalf were less than 10 FPs apart last year. From a projections standpoint, it makes sense to me that they are close. This is a concentrated pass game on those two guys. Seattle is also not projected to be as good as they have been in years past (win total of 9.5), so Russ may have to still do some cooking.

Quote

Chris Godwin is a another guy I think is more of a WR3. Perhaps it was due to injury, but he also didn't seem to really have the rapport with Brady that Evans did. I think its possible a full offseason with Antonio Brown could lead to them overlapping a bit. I kind of think Tampa might be a bit of an offense to avoid at ADP in general other than Brady. Just so many options.

Looking at the usage last year in games with AB, Brady didn't seem to have trouble getting the ball to each of his main weapons. Godwin could be frustrating week-to-week, but I am bullish on all three of these guys. Have Evans/Godwin/AB for target shares of 21/18/20 right now, which seems fair. The real reason I have them all projected fairly highly is the pass volume, which went WAY up down the stretch last year. I'm expecting that to continue, though I suppose there are a few reasons to think they may play it safe early on.

Quote

The Vikings passing game feels underrated to me. The OL is improved, and the playaction game should continue to be lethal. Jefferson is ranked about where I'd have him, but I think Thielen and Smith are low. I think coverage will shift to Jefferson as the #1, which is going to lead to Thielen seeing the least coverage he's seen in years. I think 990-9 is actually pretty close to his floor. I also think with Rudolph gone, and no #3 WR of note added, Smith is the very clear #3 target in the passing game, and 500-5 is probably close to his floor as well. I think Smith is a low-end TE1, more than the likes of Gronk or Higbee...

In common games last year, Jefferson out-targeted Thielen by a good clip. I have them decently close in target share (24 and 22%), but Jefferson is far more efficient. Irv I only gave a 13% target share to, I'm not sure just how much more usage he sees even though Rudolph is gone, since he was already on the field a good bit himself. Still a top-20 guy though for me, and certainly upside for more.

Quote

Which brings me to my last disagreement, I'm not seeing it with Tyler Higbee at all. He's been in the league for 5 years and was basically useful for 5 games of that. I don't think Everett leaving suddenly brings him back to that level. When he had that stretch in 2019, the Rams were without Everett, Cooks wasn't fully healthy, and they faced an all time bad TE defense twice. Now, they have greatly added to the WR position, they have a new QB who is more of a deep ball thrower, and a better running game than they had then. I think Higbee is closer to TE20 than TE10.

I think the biggest thing with Higbee is that Everett being gone pretty much guarantees his snap share being the highest we've seen. If he's on the field with Stafford at QB, it is difficult to not see him producing at least a little imo. We know the top two guys there are going to get fed, and I would see the Reynolds workload being somewhat split between Van/DJax/Atwell. The backups at TE are basically nobodies, this is going to remain an 11 offense with some 10 looks imo. TE12 (his projection for me) is also not as nice as it looks. He is a mere 14 points ahead of my TE18, which would be more in-line with your expectations. So I think we may actually agree here more than the positional ranking would suggest.

 

Thanks for this, it is always good to look back at my work and think again about how I arrived at certain player projections!

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Interesting that Waller > Kittle with such a large gap, and (I think) unanimously among all the projectors. I agree with that ranking, but most places I've seen have Kittle ahead of Waller.

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I'm surprised that Clayton Gray has UDFA Quinn Nordin favored to win the NE kicking job when they gave Nick Folk $1.2M guaranteed this offseason. Maurile Tremblay has Folk as the only Patriots kicker in his projections.

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1 hour ago, ZWK said:

Interesting that Waller > Kittle with such a large gap, and (I think) unanimously among all the projectors. I agree with that ranking, but most places I've seen have Kittle ahead of Waller.

This was a fun one to dive into for me. I think Waller — even if you happen to project him for less points — has a much tighter range of outcomes than Kittle. The presence of Trey Lance looms large, and would almost certainly ding pass rate. Kittle has obviously been a fantastic player, but the situation is a bit muddied. 

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9 hours ago, ZWK said:

I'm surprised that Clayton Gray has UDFA Quinn Nordin favored to win the NE kicking job when they gave Nick Folk $1.2M guaranteed this offseason. Maurile Tremblay has Folk as the only Patriots kicker in his projections.

Thanks @ZWK Definitely something that will shake out over the summer (and with some kickers, through the fall!). Folk's salary falls about middle of the pack. https://overthecap.com/position/kicker/   But Folk will be tough to beat

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17 hours ago, Anthony Amico said:

@travdoggInteresting comments, appreciate the feedback. Here is how I feel about each of these situations, and how they were applied in my projections:

 

Initially, I kind of agreed with this in spirit. I have Atlanta slightly slower in pace, and it is easy to expect Arthur Smith to want to pound the rock after what he did in Tennessee. But I think that the Falcons will, in all likelihood, still have to throw the ball a decent amount. They have a low win total, and all of the offensive personnel would dictate that they would be best trying to score through the air. In particular, I think it becomes rather difficult to justify keeping Ryan and not spending the fourth pick on a QB if you aren't going to try to maximize Ryan. Smith's passing attacks have also been pretty concentrated, so I think they will feed Ridley/Julio/Pitts a great deal, and the ancillary targets (Gage, Hurst) will suffer.

Big change in offensive coordinator and philosophy coming I think here. Pittsburgh drafted a RB early, and also worked on the OL a little. My expectation is a higher run rate than we've seen the last couple of seasons BUT maybe some more vertical passing if Ben can get it there. We saw last year that even with all of the volume in the world, these WRs struggled for consistent production. I don't mind being a little bearish here, though I still come out slightly ahead of the pack on JuJu.

I could see this one resolving itself before the off-season is over. Denver can save a bunch against the cap by trading Gordon. If he's there in September though, it is difficult to see this not being a somewhat messy committee. Maybe I should move their rush shares a little closer (46% and 36% for me respectively) with the idea in mind that Williams gets more work as the year goes on. I'll take another look at that. I do think that Williams' potential pass-game usage is up in the air though, as Gordon has years of pass-catching experience in the league already, and Williams lost a ton to a fourth-round pick in Carter.

I agree with this and my projections reflect it. I do still like White in PPR because of the pass-catching, but it is worth noting that my projections are bullish on Mac Jones starts and opportunity, and the more Cam we get, the lower it would push White.

Agree here as well, though I think the comp is more a fit with what Lombardi did in Detroit as the OC. Tons of RB passing, though perhaps a true committee in terms of RB rush attempts. I have Ekeler projected RB8. Allen I can see playing more of a Golden Tate-type of role here (those Tate years were very good tho!). The Chargers have a way better supporting cast than what would allow the full MT treatment imo. 

There are a couple of notable pitt-falls for Sanders imo. For starters, I would expect Hurts to command a good share of rush attempts, which shrinks the pie overall. We've also seen Nick Siriani split up the RB touches a ton. I think there will be somewhat of a rotation, even if Sanders is the lead. The Gainwell pick in particular intrigues me, because I do like him as a prospect. Assuming at least one each of Scott/Gainwell and Howard/Kerryon are weekly actives, Sanders is tricky for me.

I think we often over-state consistency, especially since Lockett and Metcalf were less than 10 FPs apart last year. From a projections standpoint, it makes sense to me that they are close. This is a concentrated pass game on those two guys. Seattle is also not projected to be as good as they have been in years past (win total of 9.5), so Russ may have to still do some cooking.

Looking at the usage last year in games with AB, Brady didn't seem to have trouble getting the ball to each of his main weapons. Godwin could be frustrating week-to-week, but I am bullish on all three of these guys. Have Evans/Godwin/AB for target shares of 21/18/20 right now, which seems fair. The real reason I have them all projected fairly highly is the pass volume, which went WAY up down the stretch last year. I'm expecting that to continue, though I suppose there are a few reasons to think they may play it safe early on.

In common games last year, Jefferson out-targeted Thielen by a good clip. I have them decently close in target share (24 and 22%), but Jefferson is far more efficient. Irv I only gave a 13% target share to, I'm not sure just how much more usage he sees even though Rudolph is gone, since he was already on the field a good bit himself. Still a top-20 guy though for me, and certainly upside for more.

I think the biggest thing with Higbee is that Everett being gone pretty much guarantees his snap share being the highest we've seen. If he's on the field with Stafford at QB, it is difficult to not see him producing at least a little imo. We know the top two guys there are going to get fed, and I would see the Reynolds workload being somewhat split between Van/DJax/Atwell. The backups at TE are basically nobodies, this is going to remain an 11 offense with some 10 looks imo. TE12 (his projection for me) is also not as nice as it looks. He is a mere 14 points ahead of my TE18, which would be more in-line with your expectations. So I think we may actually agree here more than the positional ranking would suggest.

 

Thanks for this, it is always good to look back at my work and think again about how I arrived at certain player projections!

Love it. 

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12 hours ago, ZWK said:

 I agree with that ranking, but most places I've seen have Kittle ahead of Waller.

Thanks. That's a super interesting point. 

I'm a BIG believer in projecting and predicting what we really think will happen. And I stress to our people doing the ranking they have that freedom. But I also stress they have to be able to make a case for every projection and ranking. 

I think it's super important.

Because our promise to you the customer is we'll give you all we've got. 

If we don't do that, we should just publish an ADP list and call it a day. 

Or do what some folks do and tweak an ADP list just enough and mail it in. That's certainly the easiest path. Nobody ever yells at me if we have a Footballguys projection that's right in line with ADP. But that's not much value for you. 

So we'll always go with what we really think. Even when it's unpopular. 

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