Feedback - Footballguys Business - Handling Bad Luck/Wrong Advice? (1 Viewer)

[BassNBrew]

This may be more vague than what you’re looking for, but if someone is going to stay or leave based on and expectation that individual predictions cause them to win/lose, your choices are:

1. Figure out a way to be accurate with your predictions so that they win or
2. Reset their expectations

If you can’t do at least one of those, you’re going to have an unhappy customer/ex-customer.

For #1, that’s the crux of your business so I’ll just assume that you already have ways you are measuring accuracy and are always trying to figure out ways to be more accurate.

From a customer standpoint, I really have zero idea what your accuracy looks like. If I were a customer that cared about that, I have no way of knowing how accurate FBG is other than my own personal results. If I use FBG rankings for drafting and lineups for the year and my team misses the playoffs, what evidence does FBG provide to that individual that it was just some bad luck and that your overall projections are worth paying for next year? With no data to refer to, a customer would be looking at paying $45+ again next year on “trust me, it’s worth it” when their personal experience (their only data point) says otherwise.

As far as re-setting expectations, I think that needs to happen before the wins/losses. Awfully hard to reset expectations after someone is already upset and distrustful. They’re only going to see it as self-serving.

I really like this post. If you want to be the best in the projections business you have to track it and let your customer know how you are performing. If you're not doing this then, focus on the entertainment and information component.

My gut says that the projections were more accurate when Dodds was doing them and that MT is currently the best staff projector for DFS. The problem with that statement is that my data points (outcomes) are so few that it's not statistically significant. It's quite possible that I used Gray's worst projections and MT's best when Gray has been trouncing MT in accuracy over the season.

 

[BassNBrew]

29

Keenan Allen LAC

WR

@ LV Thu 8:15 PM ET

31

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12.76

WED DEC 13 17:46

Keenan Allen to miss Week 15​

Los Angeles Chargers WR Keenan Allen (heel) did not participate in practice Wednesday, Dec. 13, and has been ruled out for Week 15. The Chargers did not hold a practice Wednesday, so his practice participation is an estimation.

 

[Gottabesweet]

I’ll let you know after I see how Browning QB10 does this week and Tremblay having Kareem Hunt with 16.87 PPR points

 

[TwinTurbo]

@Joe Bryant just offer a bad beat contest. In this case, if the advice cost the user a win, they get entered into the bad beat playoff contest. You set the criteria for qualifying and balance it so any bad actors don't game the system. They have to provide proof they met the criteria. An end of season contest could be super fun

And it of course gets super meta if they lose the bad beat contest based on another bad beat following FBG advice. But that's part of the fun.

In a perfect world, this contest would only have a small numer of subscribers. But it could go the other way too. And people might actually welcome a bad beat just to get in the contest. Either way, it would be a blast.

 

[Tanner9919]

I kind of remember a time when you got everything on FBG plus the RSP for around 30-40 bucks. Now you want 100 for everything sans the RSP

Not sure if it matters to you but our primary product covering everything for offensive only redraft leagues is our PRO plan at $47.88 per year. For IDP, Bestball, and Dynasty content, that's the next level that's $69.48 per year. It's certainly not for everyone, but we think it's an incredible value. We have way more content this year than we've ever had before. Plus, this week, we're donating 20% of all new subscription revenue to St. Jude Children's Hospital.

But this isn't about justifying FBG and I don't want to sidetrack us. I'm asking about how best to handle things when we get it wrong.

See though, I'm not asking you to justify your prices and I'm not trying to sidetrack us. You seem like a good person, I've been around this website for a long time, and I was just trying to provide feedback on your topic. Increases in complaints will be almost directly related to increases in fees, that's just the reality of doing business, any business. If you buy a Tesla over a Prius you're expecting a much higher quality driving experience. If you're staying at a 5 star hotel vs a Motel 6, you're expecting a lot more. And when you're expecting a lot more, you much more likely to be disappointed and people will complain when they're disappointed.

Maybe your messaging and sales pitch needs a tweak? What to do when you "get it wrong?" You shouldn't have to do anything. IMO you need to up the level of the product so people see value again, reduce the cost, or change what makes your company, your company.

Change your messaging so people see you as a all encompassing compilation of all things fantasy football much like Waldman does/messages with his RSP. It seems like some great knowledge and insight is being spread too thin at this point.

"We help you win more at fantasy football" seems like a slogan that's impossible to deliver on. On that statement alone, a lot of people are going to be disappointed on statistical probability alone. A lot of people won't win. A lot of people won't win "more." I never really expected you to help me win, I expected a compilation of information that was fun to read and in the end was just one tool in drafting/managing a successful team. I view, viewed, Waldman's RSP much the same way. It's a tool that provides new and valuable insights each year.

A lot of the tools that have been added here don't seem to do much else than pull some great minds in a bunch of different directions. In regards to rankings, I feel like the commentary on rankings is much more important than the rankings themselves. Maybe I'm wrong, but towards the end of my pay cycle I felt like rankings provided much more real time/thoughtful analysis whereas now it feels like a lot of people writing are just mailing it in. As a businessman, IMO it's better to be great at one thing than good at several. That's just IMO and I apologize if I'm putting this in a way that puts you on defense. That isn't my intent, I'm trying to help you improve and address your issue, that's all. Nothing more, nothing less. Nothing nefarious in my commentary.

this hits the hammer on the head, multiple times. If FBG prices went up , and the product hasn't gotten any better, that's on Joe and his team.period. Why would you raise prices on a fantasy site in the first place??? it's not like you have supply chain issues, and delivery issues.. I can understand rising prices on foods and restaurant services, etc. but content delivery online is not something I'd pay more for. and if they're seeing an increase in complaints they deserve it if the product wasn't significantly improved with increased pricing. I don't pay for fantasy advice anymore. I've been doing FF since 1989. I've been following fantasy index ever since. they seem to always have a robust product, maybe no frills but the content is worthwhile. and affordable pricing, always have had it always will. but I buy their magazine, their summer updates, and that's it.
maybe FBGs needs to cut back on some of the content. I had multiple FBG subs over the past 10 years or more. I liked the content but much of it is overlapping. I used to have pff subs until I realized they're not as good as they think they are. they have conflicting advice. Start A Rodgers one guy says, the other guy says sit A. rodgers.
honestly, youtubers provide far better fantasy advice so I subscribe and click to like and the channel eventually starts to make money from us subscribers as the channel grows.
Underdog sports does really well , their content is top notch. they do weekly interviews with Colt McCoy that are off the charts good in offensive scheming, plays, etc. it's a film study , but it should be a college Masters course , Colt is damn good at what he does for Underdog Sports.
Sal Vetri also has good content, Fantasy endgame, Bruce mattison, fantasy advice channel is great too.
Gone are the days of a fantasy website providing a one stop shop for your fantasy needs. FBG tries to be the one stop shop

I would cut prices do a mirror image of what fantasy index has been doing since 1987 or whenever they came up. sometimes, plain jane websites and magazines are just better. just say 'hey we provide x y z you can get the rest of the info here, here, and here.'
the most important things , imo, are:
player vs team defense ( like a WR vs Patriots secondary last 5 games)
same for RB v defense rushing stats, QB, etc.
WR/CB matchups
"Lions give up the most fantasy pts to WRs out of the slot, particularly out of the weak side of the field, Jacobi Meyers is the #1 WR out of the slot on the weak side of the field'. Raiders play lions this week - start Meyers!
injury reports as those provided by Dr Jesse Morse on youtube. he's well ahead of the curve on player injuries.
sometimes less is more, try downsizing.
maybe FBG is a relic of days of yore. maybe it's time for a total rebuild. change IS good
but if you're seeing a rise in complaints following a price hike, you deserve everything you get. don't raise prices if you can't back it up with quality content. lower prices, get customers back, rebrand the product, hire better math peeps then what you currently have, make AI models for predictions, etc.
trim the fat and bloated info on the website, trim the fluff pieces and filler stuff. fix the youtube channel,- the host is way too smug and smarmy it's killing your image makes you look like know it alls and when you miss you look silly. clean it up.

 

[rockaction]

Joe, you have a helpful, quality product. I would say that the two things you could do maybe a bit better for your customers regard issues of transparency and how to obtain the most value from their subscriptions. It would be nice if people understood the process behind the rankings a little more than they already do, and also if they could find the relevant articles to their league a little more quickly. That might go a long way toward assuaging any customer dissatisfaction.

I would argue that the best way to defuse argumentative customers with respect to rankings and projections is to have complete and total transparency. Want to see how the weekly rankings are made? Here you go! Want to see how the year-long projections are determined? Here you go! Perhaps a series of articles would help customers ascertain how the sausage is made and would make it less mysterious-seeming and arbitrary.

Perhaps that gives away too much IP or too many secrets, but the best way to have Customer A be appeased that Player A's ranking was thought about and determined through a process is to show the process involved in determining his ranking or projection.

I can only speak for myself when I say that certain rankings would make more sense if the rationales behind them were discussed in detail. This might be impossible, but breaking down the numbers and showing them to customers (even if that customer, like myself, cannot understand the math involved) might go a long way towards placating people who otherwise think that what you're doing is arbitrary and capricious. If you can show them the method behind the madness, people will likely give the business a much longer leash in the accuracy department.

I can't recall if FBG participates in FantasyPros industry rankings. I do not think it does. I think stuff like that—comparisons to other rankers and sites—would also go a long way in the transparency department. To be able to show that you're getting it right more than the Average Joe (you being the pro, Joe) is something that should be valuable to your business because it encourages people to cough up their hard-earned money for the projections and rankings.

I would also stress to customers the value of the articles and discussions that you have. I would push them even more than you do. I have made certain articles you put out appointment reading every Tuesday and Wednesday. Your product, in that respect, is tremendous and a tremendous value to me as a customer. But it sometimes takes digging to find those articles and that value. That shouldn't happen to something so valuable. You're paying writers and analysts to weigh in on football issues—why not let everybody know that part of your service?

 

[Gottabesweet]

Would be nice to know when the last time each staffer updated their rankings. Often times Tremblay sets his on Tuesday and they don’t change often skewing the rest of the consensus because he’s usually way too high on someone or way too low.

IE. Hunt this week. Ford is playing
Jefferson low projection and he’s playing.

Most other sites tell you when last updated. This is on the league dominator. @Joe Bryant Bryant

 

[need2know]

i wouldnt worry about this. most people understand its not a perfect science. those that dont and get mad about it will leave no matter what you try to do

 

[Da Guru]

It is basically impossible to predict players game to game performance. In my main league I have been in 25 years the years I had the highest scoring team in the league I never won it all. Twice I won it coming in as the lowest seed in the playoffs.

All you can do is look at the players, look at the matchup, and play the statistics.

 

[zamboni]

Some really good thoughts here.

Apologies if this has been stated already, but I think that all fantasy providers have sort of cornered themselves/opened themselves up by attempting to provide precision in their rankings, projections, etc.

I imagine that’s in large part due to customer demand but it becomes a no-win proposition when said rankings and projections do not come to fruition. And in a game where luck plays such a a huge factor, predictions ultimately come out wrong more often than not.

For me, the value comes in qualitative analysis in which some insights go into players, rather than specific rankings that so many put together - and largely boils down to groupthink anyway.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

Joe, you're not in the business of getting QB5 ranked ahead of QB10 this week. You're in the business of getting QB5 ranked ahead of QB10 60% of the time (I made up this number so let's call it x% going forward).

1. You should strive to have a target of what x% is. That's the value that your trying to capture in this post (as opposed to providing entertainment/content which is also a core part of your business).
2. You should develop a method to track your performance towards target x%. It should be pretty straight forward for one of you data base gurus to develop a program to compare every projection each week to every other projection and score it as a hit or miss.
3. You should have a process to make corrections when you don't meet the target.

Now when you you get the complaint from the customer you can send a canned response saying...

"Sorry Mr. BassNBrew that our projections impacted your fantasy result this week. Projecting player stats involves many variable and some randomness. At footballguys our goal is to be accurate x% of the time. By being accurate x% of the time the average customer should see an improvement in their win/loss record over the course of an entire season. This year we have exceeded x% at the RB, WR, D, and K positions and are on par for the TE position. We are below x% at the QB position. In an effort to improve this I have pulled together a team to review our QB projections and determine where we are missing the mark. After this review process the projection team will meet and implement changes to improve our QB projections to meet or exceed our goal of x% moving forward. Thank you for being a valuable customer. Without people like you we would be unable to accomplish our goal of providing the best fantasy football advice in the market."

this....

For years whenever a thread like this came up I always asked for a "where did he hit and where did we miss addition to the FBG menu".....weekly and yearly....every year I personally take a look back on where I hit and where I missed.....hell I do it every week as well.....self reflection and accountability are important even if it makes you vulnerable and reveals possibly negative results, which no "business" wants to actually publish...

I also agree with the comment above about the comments justifying the weekly rankings are sometimes more important than the rankings themselves.....I subscribed for a long time, but eventually found the results weren't justifying the price increase even though the contests etc. were fun, it really felt like that ended up being what I was really paying for.....when it should have just been a nice "extra".....

for me what really made up my mind to shop around was when I read a thing on The Score app.....and Justin Boone and the folks on that team pimped him for being like the "most accurate rankings expert" for two years running or something....compared to dozens of others.....(don't quote me on that exact thing, it may have been first one year and top five the next or something like that)....but that is kind of the point.....you probably should maybe quote me or look back on that and call me out and pimp FBG at the same time if it's wrong.....and where do you rank...?...were you included in the Justin Boone rankings somewhere......was someone from your team in there somewhere...?

I assume you guys at FBG have and do (on at least a yearly if not weekly basis) somehow compared your results/rankings to the other "experts" in the industry.....if you don't, you should, so you get a temperature of the room so to speak.....and I assume (maybe I shouldn't) this whole "where did we hit/where did we miss" thing is something you already do......but maybe just don't publish it...

do you already do some self evaluation...?.......do you publish those findings.....transparency even if it includes negative results is something people like to see...I get it that week to week there is only so much time to get your rankings out.....but IMO the goal @BassNBrew laid out above is a good start....and if each and every week you are really analyzing where and when you did meet your target, and where you didn't ....I think you would being offering a better product that people could trust and not have to venture elsewhere...

 

[Jacob's Ladder]

And no one is really talking about the elephant in the room, or not in this room in this case. Rankings and content have suffered without Dodds. People move on, that's business, but again it just highlights that the value proposition here continues to get harder to stomach for the customer. TBH, everything kind of jumped the shark when guys like Matthew Berry got involved. Going mainstream may have been the worst thing to ever happen around here. I'm sure it was great for a time, but not so much anymore.

And to the one person that said prices shouldn't be increasing here because of lack of goods, supply chain, etc. That's just wrong, or unfair at the least. Labor is likely this company's highest expense and times like this drive labor costs higher. That said, the decline in reliable content for simple fantasy football players was reduced significantly when daily fantasy gambling websites were OK'd by the government and FBG tried to grow their revenue stream. The frosting is being spread too thin IMHO.

 

[Gally]

I love the draft dominator, this alone for anyone that plays multiple leagues, is well worth it.

I have never used the draft dominator for actual drafts. It seems like it is difficult to use in real time as you have to keep up with the draft. Is there a way for it to be linked to your league draft room and automatically fill out based on the actual picks or do you always have to manually input every pick as it is happening?

I am sure most of you that use it are shaking their heads at the stupidity of my impression above. I just haven't found a way to use it during the draft that suits me. I am usually sifting through various info I have created and following along with the draft and adding updating the DD in real time just seems like it's too much. Really the info I would like out of the DD is to compare the team I would end up with picking on my own vs the team the DD would end up with. I am not sure how to accomplish this.

 

[candian fantasy guy]

I love the draft dominator, this alone for anyone that plays multiple leagues, is well worth it.

I have never used the draft dominator for actual drafts. It seems like it is difficult to use in real time as you have to keep up with the draft. Is there a way for it to be linked to your league draft room and automatically fill out based on the actual picks or do you always have to manually input every pick as it is happening?

I am sure most of you that use it are shaking their heads at the stupidity of my impression above. I just haven't found a way to use it during the draft that suits me. I am usually sifting through various info I have created and following along with the draft and adding updating the DD in real time just seems like it's too much. Really the info I would like out of the DD is to compare the team I would end up with picking on my own vs the team the DD would end up with. I am not sure how to accomplish this.

I use 2 devices during my drafts. One for the dominator and other stuff and the other for the actual draft.

It can be tedious at times, especially if you screw up someone’s pick or even just miss one. This happened to me in an auction draft, I thought player X was still available as he was on my DD. Alas, he was long gone and I had missed that pick.

 

[Jacob's Ladder]

I'm not trying to stir the pot, but I will add one final point. A discussion like this likely doesn't happen unless 1. revenue/profits are decreasing or 2. membership count is decreasing. If I'm off base, fine, but I doubt it.

If I'm on the right track, I don't believe ignoring customer feedback regarding pricing and value is the proper path. Just my opinion. Your business, your call. I know it's always difficult to hear the criticisms that hit the closest to home, it's also easy to fall into the trap of ignoring those criticisms.

This website, this product, it seems to lack a clear vision/direction currently. Content is all over the map and contributors seem spread too thin. Rankings seem like an algo-driven groupthink mess. The best part about the website is currently the forum community IMO, and that wasn't always the case. I used to love reading the rankings content, especially the commentary behind the rankings. This information is limited or non-existent these days.

 

[Deranged Hermit]

I'll be honest with you Joe, these sound like customers you don't want.
I've been a subscriber and a member of this board since the beginning. You guys consistently offer the most bang for your buck over the other sites imo. Do you get stuff wrong? Of course, it's the nature of the beast. It's impossible to be perfect. I can't tell you how many times in my 30+ years of playing fantasy football I've lost because of a missed fg, fumble, a play called back due to penalty, whatever.
I say just keep doing what you are doing. It's nice that you answer people that write nasty emails but, remind them, ultimately the decision is theirs to make in regards to their lineup. There's been plenty of times I've gone against your recommendations and I'll do it again I'm sure. It either works out or it doesn't, it's my choice.