Feedback - Footballguys Business - Handling Bad Luck/Wrong Advice? (1 Viewer)

[Joe Bryant]

Not sure what I'm looking for here other than I highly value the opinion of you folks here.

And I apologize but this is long.

Here's the basics.

One of my jobs as owner of Footballguys is to help as many of our customers as possible be happy with their subscription.

Obviously, the best way for them to be happy is for us to give them the advice that helps them win. That's our basic offer: You give us money, and we'll give you advice to help you win.

The primary way this works in season is we give our customers rankings for players so they can set their lineups.

So far so good.

Here's the problem: We are not perfectly accurate with our rankings.

That seems obvious, right?

But it sometimes looks like this:

A customer is setting his lineup for a crucial game in Week 14. The customer feels pretty good about all his start/bench decisions except for his one starting QB (save the Superflex jokes).

He's faced with a choice between a QB that FBG ranks QB5 vs a QB that Footballguys ranks QB10. The customer starts the QB we rank QB5.

The games are played and the player ranked QB5 posts 20 points. The player ranked QB10 posts 25 points. And the customer loses his matchup by 4 points.

If the customer had started the lower ranked QB, he would have won the crucial game.

We've all had this happen before and it's easy to sort of and say "that's fantasy football". There were a half dozen plays from both QBs that could have easily gone the other way and changed the outcome. Weird things happen. Lucky things happen. Whatever.

That's my fantasy football GM attitude.

But my business owner attitude is much different.

From a business owner perspective, I now have a very unhappy customer. A customer who did what I told them and lost the game. A customer who feels like I did NOT hold up my promise to help them win more. They are a legitimately unhappy customer.

And I totally get it.

That theoretical customer was me this week.

I regularly get emails from unhappy people like this and I always try to answer them in a kind way. I'd talk about how I wish we had a perfect crystal ball and we'll keep doing our best and such. That's rational, of course.

But the reality is, I wonder if that customer (who is maybe not feeling rational) would roll his eyes and say, "I pay you to help me win, and you let me down."

And maybe, back to the business side, they're upset to the point they won't purchase the product again.

Sure, I can tell them our processes are sound. And they are. But that still likely doesn't help them be satisfied. Most customers are bottom-line type thinkers. Bottom line, did the thing they paid for deliver the thing I said it would?

So for you here, I'm wondering if you have thoughts on how to handle this as a business.

The obvious way is just to hope customers accept the reality that sometimes things don't work out. Sometimes bad breaks happen. But I'm sure that will result in a certain number of them failing to continue purchasing.

But the creative part of my brain is thinking how we have less upset customers.

• Maybe we offer something for people who send a screen shot of them losing a game by more than the points their bench QB than the starter we had more highly ranked?
• Maybe a bad beat section of Random Shots?
• Maybe we do a "Where we wrong" column each week explaining the process for key players we missed on.

I truly don't know the answer, which is why I'm looking for feedback here.

And also to add, it's very likely that our competition had it wrong too.

But again, the customer doesn't care about that.

All they care about is they pay us to help them win. And we didn't live up to that in their eyes.

We have to be super careful to understand the question here.

It's not, "Is Footballguys better than ____________?"

It's, "Did I receive value for what I paid Footballguys and did they deliver on helping me win more?"

That's hugely important for us a business to be clear on the distinction.

Ok. That's enough rambling. Would love constructive feedback and real suggestions if you have them. Thank you.

 

[Gr00vus]

I wouldn't give up on the comparison to other services so quickly. If they're not happy with FBG, they're probably going to try somewhere else. However, if you can demonstrate that FBGs is as good as it gets, they'd be less likely to do so (why go somewhere even worse?), and it would reinforce that fantasy football prognostication is not an exact science.

Secondly, it's always more memorable when you lose a close one than when you win a close one. It'd be good to also demonstrate how often you guys get it right (or statistically close enough to be "virtually right"), and at what rate, compared to when you get it wrong. If you're getting it right a lot more often than you're getting it wrong, that's another compelling story to make, another way to put one bad outcome into context. That also demonstrates the value of the service.

Thirdly, at this stage of fantasy sports sophistication, success is predicated on luck as much as it is skill. Everyone has a ton of access to great information, the variance in outcomes due to knowledge advantages must have lessoned since the early days of FF, which means luck will play a bigger factor than it has before. You can put a fantastic lineup out there prior to the games, and it can be totally derailed by injuries, anomalous performances on your opponent's team, weather, unexpected/bad coaching decisions, etc. There's no guarantee you can make against any of that stuff, and if you play this game long enough, you will be on the wrong end of it eventually. If people can't understand that, that's on them, there's nothing you're going to be able to give or tell them to change that.

 

[jobarules]

Personally speaking, this is why I dont pay for fantasy advice. First of all, it can be found free anywhere. Second of all, these fantasy experts have no more knowledge about fantasy football than I do. Third of all, there's a TON of random luck in fantasy football that the experts have no control over. However, I have used the draft dominator 3 years in a row and my team the last two years are probably the worst two teams I have ever drafted. I'm not blaming the draft dominator. Im blaming myself for spending money on something I have successfully done my whole life. Most rational customers should realize the amount of luck in this hobby and if they don't that's on them. I wouldnt cater towards them. For me personally I am done using the draft dominator and going to go back to creating my own cheatsheets which has led to a ton of success in the past. If I lose Id rather it be on me and not some "expert".

 

[fatness]

Maybe we do a "Where we wrong" column each week explaining the process for key players we missed on.

That's a good idea. A season's-end column for the entire season would be good, too. The columns would have to stay somewhere in between self-flagellation and over-defensiveness, but that shouldn't be hard.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Maybe we do a "Where we wrong" column each week explaining the process for key players we missed on.

That's a good idea. A season's-end column for the entire season would be good, too. The columns would have to stay somewhere in between self-flagellation and over-defensiveness, but that shouldn't be hard.

I like this idea as well.

Ownership/transparency of mistakes is a good policy.

That said, what FBG does is similar to what stock brokers do. Sometimes they get it wrong and customers lose small or large fortunes.

But that’s life. Football is a game of inches. Last night I faced Henry with a 16 point lead. Dolphins forced a 4th & 5, and Chubb inexplicably rips off his helmet and slams it on the ground.

Couple plays later Henry gets in from 1.

No one could have possibly predicted that sequence of events. At the time I thought that knocked me out of the playoffs in one league (it ended up not, but that’s another story).

The point is there’s no possible way to have foreseen that, much like there’s no way to accurately project players for rankings.

In that light it seems wholly unreasonable for someone to get mad at FBG. You gave your best consensus opinion for projected player outcomes based on information at hand.

IMO that is what people are paying for. The actual outcome is always TBD. People set their lineups and at the end of the day they are the ones responsible. I often go against FBG rankings if my gut tells me to do so. I own those decisions.

To me FBG offers so much more than player rankings/projections to the point that it’s the last thing I use FBG for. No offense to FBG prognosticators, of course. Over the years I’ve just come to realize that no matter who ranks whom where, the actual games never line up like that.

I admire the desire to do right by your customers, but I also believe your customers need to have realistic expectations & shoulder some of their own responsibility.

 

[Joe Bryant]

To me FBG offers so much more than player rankings/projections to the point that it’s the last thing I use FBG for. No offense to FBG prognosticators, of course. Over the years I’ve just come to realize that no matter who ranks whom where, the actual games never line up like that.

Thank you. What are some of the other things you get value from?

 

[Joe Bryant]

Maybe we do a "Where we wrong" column each week explaining the process for key players we missed on.

That's a good idea. A season's-end column for the entire season would be good, too. The columns would have to stay somewhere in between self-flagellation and over-defensiveness, but that shouldn't be hard.

Colin Cowherd does this weekly on his show and he's said several times, it's his most popular segment. He does a "Where Colin was Right? Where Colin was Wrong?'

 

[Joe Bryant]

That said, what FBG does is similar to what stock brokers do. Sometimes they get it wrong and customers lose small or large fortunes.

That's a good comparison.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

To me FBG offers so much more than player rankings/projections to the point that it’s the last thing I use FBG for. No offense to FBG prognosticators, of course. Over the years I’ve just come to realize that no matter who ranks whom where, the actual games never line up like that.

Thank you. What are some of the other things you get value from?

Dynasty rankings were invaluable in making decisions for a start-up league this year, especially when I had 2 players I liked with 1 pick to spend.

I also use FBG dynasty rankings when I’m evaluating a trade (cross referenced against calc and my own valuation)

I like the weekly emails of “stuff that happened” a lot - helps me stay on top of injuries so I can scout next man up, etc.

the shark pool, of course.

And i enjoy the articles - I get tons out of Bloom, Waldman, etc. I like high level discussion more than granular these days.

FBG is the best in the business when it comes to this stuff. TBH I delete rankings emails from FBG & others. I used to hang on them like they mattered, but I find I’m more at peace when I just set my lineups with what I believe my best chance is, rankings be damned. I look at weather, too.

 

[wlwiles]

If a customer is truly upset because he gave FBG his $, followed the advice, lost, and still thinks that FBG cost him a win, and feels strongly enough about it to voice that displeasure to Joe or FBG email box or wherever, I would think the last thing that customer would want to hear is "yeah but we got it right 84% of the time" or "yeah but ESPN and FantasyPros and XXX and YYY got it wrong just like we did". Anything said after the "yeah but" is just noise.

IMO someone who would actually voice this type of sentiment at Joe or at FBG in a public manner is also the same type of person who would tweet at an NFL player because they cost them a fantasy win for whatever reason. Just looking to blame anyone but themselves, when really there's no one (not even themselves) to blame - because it's an unpredictable game.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

IMO someone who would actually voice this type of sentiment at Joe or at FBG in a public manner is also the same type of person who would tweet at an NFL player because they cost them a fantasy win for whatever reason. Just looking to blame anyone but themselves, when really there's no one (not even themselves) to blame - because it's an unpredictable game.

Bullseye

 

[RJS113]

If you could calculate an accuracy score for each person doing rankings, I think it would go a long way. Maybe the first 3 weeks of the season, use accuracy score based on the previous season’s results. Then starting in week 4, use season to date accuracy scores.

I think everyone understands no one will be perfect. But a system like that would be a great tool to help determine which rankings to trust the most.

Maybe even assign accuracy scores to each position. Maybe someone is really strong at accurately projecting QBs stats/rankings, while someone else might be more accurate with RBs or TEs.

Also, when I make rankings, there’s always a small handful of players I’m really confident in how I feel about them, whether it’s someone I have ranked high or low. Maybe highlight those players in the rankings to indicate the player rankings that you’re most confident in.

 

[eighsse2]

When a business is merely prognosticating ... I don't think you have a legitimate complaint as a customer (you certainly may have a complaint, but not legitimate) unless said prognostication is failing over a large sample size. It's not like making a cheeseburger for a customer. "We did our best ... sorry, but sometimes the cheese just doesn't make it onto the burger, you'll have to do without this time. We hope to do better next time. Have a nice day," would obviously be absurd. But that's because putting the cheese on a burger is something you can do without fail if you're simply paying attention and know what you're doing. Predicting weather, stock movements, sports scores, and fantasy football scores is not something you can just "do your due diligence" to make sure you get it right.

If a customer is unsatisfied with results on a longer-term basis, then no, you're not getting the job done and they shouldn't keep paying you. If one miss happens to lose them a win-or-go-home game, that sucks but that's tough. It's not a product that comes with a guarantee (other than perhaps a long-term guarantee to be satisfactory).

 

[eighsse2]

If you could calculate an accuracy score for each person doing rankings, I think it would go a long way. Maybe the first 3 weeks of the season, use accuracy score based on the previous season’s results. Then starting in week 4, use season to date accuracy scores.

I think everyone understands no one will be perfect. But a system like that would be a great tool to help determine which rankings to trust the most.

Maybe even assign accuracy scores to each position. Maybe someone is really strong at accurately projecting QBs stats/rankings, while someone else might be more accurate with RBs or TEs.

Also, when I make rankings, there’s always a small handful of players I’m really confident in how I feel about them, whether it’s someone I have ranked high or low. Maybe highlight those players in the rankings to indicate the player rankings that you’re most confident in.

I like this, but I would say even 3 weeks into the season, that isn't a very good sample size. If it were up to me, maybe a 1- or 2-year moving average or something like that?

 

[Wrigley]

Don't you already offer a money back guarantee?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I just realized I use FBG like folks used to lie about Playboy Magazine.

The rankings are like the playmates, but I read it for the articles!

 

[Smack Tripper]

I will be honest, I sub out of habit and support, the forums are great. I am a bit curious as to the process portion of things. I’m sure it’s somewhat proprietary and it’s speculative for all of us. But there are many levels of data and analysis available now, and I was wondering how you’ve seen fbg incorporate them or if they have. I will admit, I go elsewhere for that info now. Thielen was one tout that befuddled me here, he was top 10 for way too long and I am genuinely curious about that process to get him there given the totality of that situation

 

[Joe Bryant]

Don't you already offer a money back guarantee?

Yes we do.

But it's a 30 day moneyback guarantee. We often waive the 30 days though.

Mostly, I'm trying to think of creative ways to address it beyond refunding them or them not returning.

 

[Joe Bryant]

But there are many levels of data and analysis available now, and I was wondering how you’ve seen fbg incorporate them or if they have. I will admit, I go elsewhere for that info now.

Thanks. Can you elaborate on what you mean and what you're looking for there? And where you're getting it now so I can have an idea of more specifically what you mean?

 

[Ron Swanson]

I never worry too much about the small sample size of a game or even a season. The value proposition of Footballguys to me is more about not having to spend the time researching it all myself, not in comparing accuracy in arrears.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

The reality is nothing you say is going to appease someone like that. I definitely wouldn't set a precedent of rewarding folks for screenshots of their losing lineups. Among other reasons, that would be trivially easy to fake.

One related thing I'd like to see is more emphasis on the fact that projections aren't a single number but more of a distirbution. Might help people understand that they shouldn't blindly start the QB projected for 23.2 points over the one projected for 21.6 or whatever.

Folks just need to be better at understanding and using data. People are flabbergasted every time a 14-point favorite loses but it happens one out of every six or seven times. Projected QB10 outscoring QB5 happens all the time, so the best thing you can do is teach people to understand that.

 

[Timmay]

I like the idea of Where you went wrong/right and the accuracy score.

People like full transparency whether right or wrong. I always relate this to sports handicappers. I trust someone more if they are being honest with their W-L record, units won/loss and how they go about getting to the end prize (which in this case is winning). If they are disguising their weekly, monthly, yearly records to make them look better can you really trust their picks or in fantasy football their rankings/information.

 

[Neil Beaufort Zod]

I don't think you have a "customer" in that case. You have a person who paid for something that isn't actually being offered-- a flawless guide to picking the right fantasy players on any given week.

Your customers are looking for information-- trends, opinions, projections, and an educated voice that can be added to all the other voices (including their own) when making decisions each week.

The question is, was the advice sound? Did it make sense before the games happened? Who expected Ja'Marr Chase to have such a stellar game with Jake Browning against Jacksonville? Was it bad advice to rank other guys ahead of him who didn't perform as well? Or did it make sense, but just not work out that time?

Sometimes you can make all the right decisions, and it still doesn't go the way you expect. Any poker player can verify. Are you guiding people to the right decisions, according to the information we have today, regardless of the eventual outcome? If so, the only thing you can do is be clear about what you're offering: An educated voice, backed by different perspectives and a mountain of data. People who are looking for a psychic are going to be disappointed eventually.

 

[Joe Bryant]

The reality is nothing you say is going to appease someone like that. I definitely wouldn't set a precedent of rewarding folks for screenshots of their losing lineups. Among other reasons, that would be trivially easy to fake.

One related thing I'd like to see is more emphasis on the fact that projections aren't a single number but more of a distirbution. Might help people understand that they shouldn't blindly start the QB projected for 23.2 points over the one projected for 21.6 or whatever.

Folks just need to be better at understanding and using data. People are flabbergasted every time a 14-point favorite loses but it happens one out of every six or seven times. Projected QB10 outscoring QB5 happens all the time, so the best thing you can do is teach people to understand that.

That's the real answer. But it's a challenge to get people to understand it.

 

[Smack Tripper]

But there are many levels of data and analysis available now, and I was wondering how you’ve seen fbg incorporate them or if they have. I will admit, I go elsewhere for that info now.

Thanks. Can you elaborate on what you mean and what you're looking for there? And where you're getting it now so I can have an idea of more specifically what you mean?

In terms of player usage, their targets, quality of targets, and then putting that into a context of likely opponent scheme. Does a defense play man, are they zone, are they as many to most now, a hybrid? Some players perform better against certain defenses and coverages and I don’t hear this discusses with any frequency at fbg. Who performs well against TE and why? It’s not stictly numbers oriented though, a team may be great against the TE on paper but have faced bottom tier TE so that info might not be relevant for a Kelce game let’s say. I think Waldman goes there a bit but to me that’s where the game is moving now in terms of FF analysis.

Delving further, a more granular look at potential injury impacts in terms of offensive line and all layers of defense.

I am grateful for all the years and work, and I know there are so many variables to take into a tout and both teams adjust into a given week blowing our best intentions up.

But getting into the meat of that is not something I as a joe six pack necessarily have the time to do but would be very helpful

I don’t know if all these data points are being factored here, I may be totally wrong so it was a legitimate question

Honestly, having these data points to nerd out over made fantasy more fun to me this year than it’s been in 10-15 years

 

[Joe Bryant]

I don't think you have a "customer" in that case. You have a person who paid for something that isn't actually being offered-- a flawless guide to picking the right fantasy players on any given week.

Your customers are looking for information-- trends, opinions, projections, and an educated voice that can be added to all the other voices (including their own) when making decisions each week.

The question is, was the advice sound? Did it make sense before the games happened? Who expected Ja'Marr Chase to have such a stellar game with Jake Browning against Jacksonville? Was it bad advice to rank other guys ahead of him who didn't perform as well? Or did it make sense, but just not work out that time?

Sometimes you can make all the right decisions, and it still doesn't go the way you expect. Any poker player can verify. Are you guiding people to the right decisions, according to the information we have today, regardless of the eventual outcome? If so, the only thing you can do is be clear about what you're offering: An educated voice, backed by different perspectives and a mountain of data. People who are looking for a psychic are going to be disappointed eventually.

Thanks. Like @Ignoratio Elenchi , that's the rational answer. It's just tough to get people to see the reality of it.

 

[Dacomish]

FBG for me is a bit of a double check on my own gut, maybe I am on the fence and want an outside thought process, but in the end of the day its still my decision.

Like others already said further up - Fantasy football is filled with luck and guessing games, but at least here with FBG we get some educated guessing and luck!

Keep doing what you do Joe, its the best in the biz, hands down....I for one will continue to subscribe and enjoy the data and insight you provide!

 

[Joe Bryant]

But there are many levels of data and analysis available now, and I was wondering how you’ve seen fbg incorporate them or if they have. I will admit, I go elsewhere for that info now.

Thanks. Can you elaborate on what you mean and what you're looking for there? And where you're getting it now so I can have an idea of more specifically what you mean?

In terms of player usage, their targets, quality of targets, and then putting that into a context of likely opponent scheme. Does a defense play man, are they zone, are they as many to most now, a hybrid? Some players perform better against certain defenses and coverages and I don’t hear this discusses with any frequency at fbg. Who performs well against TE and why? It’s not stictly numbers oriented though, a team may be great against the TE on paper but have faced bottom tier TE so that info might not be relevant for a Kelce game let’s say. I think Waldman goes there a bit but to me that’s where the game is moving now in terms of FF analysis.

Delving further, a more granular look at potential injury impacts in terms of offensive line and all layers of defense.

I am grateful for all the years and work, and I know there are so many variables to take into a tout and both teams adjust into a given week blowing our best intentions up.

But getting into the meat of that is not something I as a joe six pack necessarily have the time to do but would be very helpful

I don’t know if all these data points are being factored here, I may be totally wrong so it was a legitimate question

Honestly, having these data points to nerd out over made fantasy more fun to me this year than it’s been in 10-15 years

Thank you. Yes, our people doing projections factor all those and more as they build projection sets each week. Plus each have their own style and influences. @Maurile Tremblay leans more on data say than @Sigmund Bloom who loves intangibles. Jason Wood is more a blend. As you said, Waldman influences them as well.

 

[Jacob's Ladder]

To be honest, your complaints probably compound as your membership fee grows. If membership fees were still in line with the cost of a draft magazine less people would throw a fit.

Most people are priced out of membership here and when the your rankings/insight/advice are no better, just different than free or cheap competitors, then people are going to get upset at the price being paid. I get it, times are tough and you want to maintain or grow the bottom line as new membership is probably on the decline.

You’re trying to maximize revenue per customer when I believe you should be trying to maximize customer counts. I was a member here for many years, you have a nice product, but IMO it’s no longer worth the price. I finally cancelled this season and I’m still winning my big $$$ league. If fees retreated to where they were more reasonable, I might come back because some of your stuff is a fun read even if it’s not all that useful. That said, it’s hard to justify the cost these days when you can find so much for free elsewhere.

 

[Max Power]

Hire every NFL team's Offensive Coordinator to the staff and have them call in to report their weekly gameplans = profit

In all seriousness you run a great business. There may be places to improve, but someone unhappy about rankings is unreasonable. If a person is doing everything based on ADP, weekly rankings, and pickup recommendations are they even playing FF? That's following a script and I don't know how long term those type of players really are.

Side note: I'm still holding a grudge against bloom for his 2017 post draft 100 where he talked me into taking Corey Davis over McCaffery. But I'll still reference his list yearly come dynasty draft time.

 

[Jacob's Ladder]

I kind of remember a time when you got everything on FBG plus the RSP for around 30-40 bucks. Now you want 100 for everything sans the RSP. Again, it’s just hard to justify. If you want to charge so much for fantasy football information and advice, that information and advice had better be significantly more accurate than what you can get at lower price points. We all know it’s not. You’re kind of in between a rock and a hard place at this point and I have no idea everything that goes into your pricing, all I can say is that as a customer I don’t know how to justify the cost.

 

[Dickies]

It's not a big sample size, but I started using Draft Dominator last season in the two leagues I was in. I ended up taking 1st place in the regular season in both leagues, winning one outright, and suffering some bad playoff luck in the other.

I got invited to another league this season and I redeployed the Draft Dominator. The two leagues that have finished regular season I took 1st and have secured 1st round byes for playoffs. The 3rd league has one more week and I am in 2nd place, but have by far the most points scored and have clinched a 1st round bye regardless of outcome this week (I could jump back to 1st, but can't be worse than 2nd).

That is potentially 5/5 leagues finishing first place from someone who was usually middle of the pack when it came to fantasy football. The other thing is that I do absolutely zero off-season research/planning. I'm learning about players switching teams either during the draft or within an hour of the draft.

When you look at the entire picture of what you guys do I think it's incredibly obvious that you provide a lot of value, but it is going to be impossible to get everything correct. There have been picks on all of my teams that have been absolutely atrocious, but there have also been picks that make up for them. I pay zero attention to weekly rankings as I just go with the players that have done well for me, or go with players that I have a good feeling about in any given week. I'm assuming you guys rank CMC as the #1 RB almost every week, but I can't comprehend how someone can get mad if Breece Hall outscores him from their bench.

 

[nittanylion]

'Where we got it wrong/right' post-week article is an excellent idea.

That being said, having spent almost 30 years playing this game/enjoying this hobby, it's my firm belief that so many uncontrollable factors influence players' statistical outcomes, that as hard as I work, to start the best lineup possible, weekly, and use FBG's, as well as PFF and DMcF to assist my decison-making process, there's a a significant chance I'm not going to field an optimal lineup, and the chips will fall where they may.

Thankfully, and in no small part due to the use of those resources, as well as this Forum (which, as a free resource, is worth it's weight in gold), I've come out on the + end more often than not over a very long period of time.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

To me FBG offers so much more than player rankings/projections to the point that it’s the last thing I use FBG for. No offense to FBG prognosticators, of course. Over the years I’ve just come to realize that no matter who ranks whom where, the actual games never line up like that.

Thank you. What are some of the other things you get value from?

Also, and I can’t believe I left this out of my earlier response, the FBG draft app is the single greatest asset to my redraft leagues.

I often customize the ranking, but it is useful for faux mock drafts, as well as keeping track in the real draft.

My old days of pen & paper seem like a nightmare comparatively, and I truly wouldn’t want to draft without it.

 

[Courtjester]

I think a weekly "What we got wrong article," is a fair approach, but people blaming FBG for their inability to run their fantasy teams, need to be shown the door. No matter what you do, someone is always going to complain. ESPN, CBS and FBG had Nico Collins as a top 10 start this last week. Was there any way to know he was going to go out after one play? Did anyone see the Drake London almost 200 yard game coming?

I am like nittanyloin above. I am in my 30th plus year of doing this. I have paid for a subscription here for as long as I can remember (other than the Covid year). My wife and I get tremendous value from the DD and we both have pretty consistent winning records to show for it. I love the DFS articles, as I simply do not have the time to compile all the data they provide. The breaking injury news are amazing. I also believe there is value in paying for a product out of loyalty. Not that it means anything, but I am one of the rare three digit members and I can't put a price tag on the entertainment I have received from the forums over the years.

However, here is the catch, FBGs is just one of the tools I use playing FF. I consult multiple sources of info to assist me in making my final decision on lineups and WW picks. The people that just expect you to spoon feed them what every player is going to do are just unrealistic. It is very similar to the people that post WDIS threads and then proceed to list their entire lineup looking for advice. Maybe this hobby isn't for them?

You have always tried to run a customer first business and I get you don't like disappointing people, but you are in the business of attempting to predict what is essentially the unpredictable. All you can do is offer the data and an opinion and players need to take that and make their own calls if they want to be successful.

 

[jm192]

It's a game of trying to predict the future. You can't. It's not humanly possible.

Instead, we apply logic and reason and go through a process to do the best that we can. Some weeks, we do good. Some weeks, the unexpected happens. That's why it's the unexpected.

I think it was ESPN where I first heard the "Process over Results" phrase. And I really believe that. I benched DK Metcalf in multiple leagues this past week. He was real bad in his previous game vs the 49ers. Geno was out. I don't like DK's odds. If you'd told me he only ends up with 2 catches, I'm feeling good about my call. But then he turns that into 52 yards and a touchdown.

I wasn't "wrong." My reasoning there is really sound. I'll make that call every single week. Over the course of a season, the process will be right more often than not.

I've had that mindset for a long time. I love FBG, and have subscribed for 7 years now. But I can't make all of my lineup decisions based on your rankings. I look at other rankings. Sometimes I ignore rankings and "go with my gut" as they say.

I'm not sure the best way to tell someone that. You can't exactly go into it saying "Look, we're going to be wrong on the rankings a lot." Because you worry that makes people think you don't know what you're doing. But the reality is--everyone's rankings are wrong a lot.

I do think FBG is SO much more than just rankings. And I would really emphasize the value of the other stuff. I love the dynasty content. I love the kicker and defense streaming articles. I love the off-season articles when I'm trying to decide if I like this guy or that guy more.

 

[Kuz]

I have nothing really to add that hasn't been said already.

Joe you're doing fine... You have a good product/site

 

[Joe Bryant]

I kind of remember a time when you got everything on FBG plus the RSP for around 30-40 bucks. Now you want 100 for everything sans the RSP

Not sure if it matters to you but our primary product covering everything for offensive only redraft leagues is our PRO plan at $47.88 per year. For IDP, Bestball, and Dynasty content, that's the next level that's $69.48 per year. It's certainly not for everyone, but we think it's an incredible value. We have way more content this year than we've ever had before. Plus, this week, we're donating 20% of all new subscription revenue to St. Jude Children's Hospital.

But this isn't about justifying FBG and I don't want to sidetrack us. I'm asking about how best to handle things when we get it wrong.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Thank y'all. You're way too kind and rational. Thank you so much for the kind words and feedback. This is helpful.

 

[Neil Beaufort Zod]

I don't think you have a "customer" in that case. You have a person who paid for something that isn't actually being offered-- a flawless guide to picking the right fantasy players on any given week.

Your customers are looking for information-- trends, opinions, projections, and an educated voice that can be added to all the other voices (including their own) when making decisions each week.

The question is, was the advice sound? Did it make sense before the games happened? Who expected Ja'Marr Chase to have such a stellar game with Jake Browning against Jacksonville? Was it bad advice to rank other guys ahead of him who didn't perform as well? Or did it make sense, but just not work out that time?

Sometimes you can make all the right decisions, and it still doesn't go the way you expect. Any poker player can verify. Are you guiding people to the right decisions, according to the information we have today, regardless of the eventual outcome? If so, the only thing you can do is be clear about what you're offering: An educated voice, backed by different perspectives and a mountain of data. People who are looking for a psychic are going to be disappointed eventually.

Thanks. Like @Ignoratio Elenchi , that's the rational answer. It's just tough to get people to see the reality of it.

I think part of it is marketing. Not talking about just you here, but when I see ads like "dominate your league" or "win your championship," those slogans are setting results-oriented expectations. If you didn't dominate your league or win your championship, you'll feel misled. They paid their money but didn't get what the slogan said. I know that's a bit simplistic, but I think there's a subconscious expectation that isn't being met.

Maybe the education starts with a focus on what you really offer: Time-saving data analysis, a diversity of opinions with a proven track record, and a wealth of information you'd have to spend a lot of time to track down yourself. The idea being that you could aggregate all that data as an individual...but who has that many free hours, and is that the most fun way to spend your fantasy football time?

Instead, you put it together for them in one place, in an easy-to-find format that sometimes comes to them directly (via their Inbox every week). All for the price of a weekly coffee at Starbucks. Saving time, organizing the analysis and providing a wealth of resources doesn't say a thing about results, but it implies that the customer has everything they need to succeed. The rest is up to them.

Online stock trading companies spend a lot of time touting what resources they give you to make decisions, and zero time making speculative promises about how it will turn out. I know there's government regulation involved, but it's a good policy to follow when dealing with the general public. Just my opinion.

 

[renesauz]

about Noah Brown.............

 

[Joe Bryant]

I don't think you have a "customer" in that case. You have a person who paid for something that isn't actually being offered-- a flawless guide to picking the right fantasy players on any given week.

Your customers are looking for information-- trends, opinions, projections, and an educated voice that can be added to all the other voices (including their own) when making decisions each week.

The question is, was the advice sound? Did it make sense before the games happened? Who expected Ja'Marr Chase to have such a stellar game with Jake Browning against Jacksonville? Was it bad advice to rank other guys ahead of him who didn't perform as well? Or did it make sense, but just not work out that time?

Sometimes you can make all the right decisions, and it still doesn't go the way you expect. Any poker player can verify. Are you guiding people to the right decisions, according to the information we have today, regardless of the eventual outcome? If so, the only thing you can do is be clear about what you're offering: An educated voice, backed by different perspectives and a mountain of data. People who are looking for a psychic are going to be disappointed eventually.

Thanks. Like @Ignoratio Elenchi , that's the rational answer. It's just tough to get people to see the reality of it.

I think part of it is marketing. Not talking about just you here, but when I see ads like "dominate your league" or "win your championship," those slogans are setting results-oriented expectations. If you didn't dominate your league or win your championship, you'll feel misled. They paid their money but didn't get what the slogan said. I know that's a bit simplistic, but I think there's a subconscious expectation that isn't being met.

Maybe the education starts with a focus on what you really offer: Time-saving data analysis, a diversity of opinions with a proven track record, and a wealth of information you'd have to spend a lot of time to track down yourself. The idea being that you could aggregate all that data as an individual...but who has that many free hours, and is that the most fun way to spend your fantasy football time?

Instead, you put it together for them in one place, in an easy-to-find format that sometimes comes to them directly (via their Inbox every week). All for the price of a weekly coffee at Starbucks. Saving time, organizing the analysis and providing a wealth of resources doesn't say a thing about results, but it implies that the customer has everything they need to succeed. The rest is up to them.

Online stock trading companies spend a lot of time touting what resources they give you to make decisions, and zero time making speculative promises about how it will turn out. I know there's government regulation involved, but it's a good policy to follow when dealing with the general public. Just my opinion.

That's an excellent point. A ton of what we do for folks is save them time. This isn't top priority for everyone, but for lots of people the time saving is a big value.

 

[renesauz]

I don't think you have a "customer" in that case. You have a person who paid for something that isn't actually being offered-- a flawless guide to picking the right fantasy players on any given week.

Your customers are looking for information-- trends, opinions, projections, and an educated voice that can be added to all the other voices (including their own) when making decisions each week.

The question is, was the advice sound? Did it make sense before the games happened? Who expected Ja'Marr Chase to have such a stellar game with Jake Browning against Jacksonville? Was it bad advice to rank other guys ahead of him who didn't perform as well? Or did it make sense, but just not work out that time?

Sometimes you can make all the right decisions, and it still doesn't go the way you expect. Any poker player can verify. Are you guiding people to the right decisions, according to the information we have today, regardless of the eventual outcome? If so, the only thing you can do is be clear about what you're offering: An educated voice, backed by different perspectives and a mountain of data. People who are looking for a psychic are going to be disappointed eventually.

Thanks. Like @Ignoratio Elenchi , that's the rational answer. It's just tough to get people to see the reality of it.

I think part of it is marketing. Not talking about just you here, but when I see ads like "dominate your league" or "win your championship," those slogans are setting results-oriented expectations. If you didn't dominate your league or win your championship, you'll feel misled. They paid their money but didn't get what the slogan said. I know that's a bit simplistic, but I think there's a subconscious expectation that isn't being met.

Maybe the education starts with a focus on what you really offer: Time-saving data analysis, a diversity of opinions with a proven track record, and a wealth of information you'd have to spend a lot of time to track down yourself. The idea being that you could aggregate all that data as an individual...but who has that many free hours, and is that the most fun way to spend your fantasy football time?

Instead, you put it together for them in one place, in an easy-to-find format that sometimes comes to them directly (via their Inbox every week). All for the price of a weekly coffee at Starbucks. Saving time, organizing the analysis and providing a wealth of resources doesn't say a thing about results, but it implies that the customer has everything they need to succeed. The rest is up to them.

Online stock trading companies spend a lot of time touting what resources they give you to make decisions, and zero time making speculative promises about how it will turn out. I know there's government regulation involved, but it's a good policy to follow when dealing with the general public. Just my opinion.

That's an excellent point. A ton of what we do for folks is save them time. This isn't top priority for everyone, but for lots of people the time saving is a big value.

It's more then an excellent point. Neil has hit it on the head. I play mostly dynasty, and EVERY opponent is very well informed. FBG saves me time, but the ads implying championships are absolutely misleading. The overwhelming majority of us (the types of guys in these dynasty leagues) know better and aren't gonna complain, but some random yahoo who does 0 homework, has limited FF experience, and plays in family/work redraft?

 

[BassNBrew]

Joe, you're not in the business of getting QB5 ranked ahead of QB10 this week. You're in the business of getting QB5 ranked ahead of QB10 60% of the time (I made up this number so let's call it x% going forward).

1. You should strive to have a target of what x% is. That's the value that your trying to capture in this post (as opposed to providing entertainment/content which is also a core part of your business).
2. You should develop a method to track your performance towards target x%. It should be pretty straight forward for one of you data base gurus to develop a program to compare every projection each week to every other projection and score it as a hit or miss.
3. You should have a process to make corrections when you don't meet the target.

Now when you you get the complaint from the customer you can send a canned response saying...

"Sorry Mr. BassNBrew that our projections impacted your fantasy result this week. Projecting player stats involves many variable and some randomness. At footballguys our goal is to be accurate x% of the time. By being accurate x% of the time the average customer should see an improvement in their win/loss record over the course of an entire season. This year we have exceeded x% at the RB, WR, D, and K positions and are on par for the TE position. We are below x% at the QB position. In an effort to improve this I have pulled together a team to review our QB projections and determine where we are missing the mark. After this review process the projection team will meet and implement changes to improve our QB projections to meet or exceed our goal of x% moving forward. Thank you for being a valuable customer. Without people like you we would be unable to accomplish our goal of providing the best fantasy football advice in the market."

 

[Joe Bryant]

FBG saves me time, but the ads implying championships are absolutely misleading. The overwhelming majority of us (the types of guys in these dynasty leagues) know better and aren't gonna complain, but some random yahoo who does 0 homework, has limited FF experience, and plays in family/work redraft?

We obviously don't want to be misleading. I'm not sure what ads you mean. The primary messaging is on https://www.footballguys.com/ where if you're not logged in, you see the guy with a trophy sand the tagline "We help you win more at fantasy football". I don't think that's misleading as that's clearly what we're offering.

I do think the time savings angle is attractive to some. Most people desire winning more so we'll have to make sure we're clear on what we offer. But we never ever will be misleading.

 

[Dickies]

Now when you you get the complaint from the customer you can send a canned response saying...

 

[Gally]

Personally speaking, this is why I dont pay for fantasy advice. First of all, it can be found free anywhere. Second of all, these fantasy experts have no more knowledge about fantasy football than I do. Third of all, there's a TON of random luck in fantasy football that the experts have no control over. However, I have used the draft dominator 3 years in a row and my team the last two years are probably the worst two teams I have ever drafted. I'm not blaming the draft dominator. Im blaming myself for spending money on something I have successfully done my whole life. Most rational customers should realize the amount of luck in this hobby and if they don't that's on them. I wouldnt cater towards them. For me personally I am done using the draft dominator and going to go back to creating my own cheatsheets which has led to a ton of success in the past. If I lose Id rather it be on me and not some "expert".

I think of it a bit different. I agree with almost everything you said here. I have been doing this probably longer than many of the "experts" on the FBG site (38 years) and have had a ton of success over the years. I don't use the paid FBG information as a must follow bible but I do use it to advance my information gathering so that I can weigh that info along with other info I acquire to make my own decision. There are plenty of times I don't follow the "experts" because frankly, I do think I know better. But getting a different perspective or additional stats or XXXXX helps me make my informed decision. I have no problem paying for that type of information to improve my overall knowledge to make informed decisions.

 

[Jacob's Ladder]

I kind of remember a time when you got everything on FBG plus the RSP for around 30-40 bucks. Now you want 100 for everything sans the RSP

Not sure if it matters to you but our primary product covering everything for offensive only redraft leagues is our PRO plan at $47.88 per year. For IDP, Bestball, and Dynasty content, that's the next level that's $69.48 per year. It's certainly not for everyone, but we think it's an incredible value. We have way more content this year than we've ever had before. Plus, this week, we're donating 20% of all new subscription revenue to St. Jude Children's Hospital.

But this isn't about justifying FBG and I don't want to sidetrack us. I'm asking about how best to handle things when we get it wrong.

See though, I'm not asking you to justify your prices and I'm not trying to sidetrack us. You seem like a good person, I've been around this website for a long time, and I was just trying to provide feedback on your topic. Increases in complaints will be almost directly related to increases in fees, that's just the reality of doing business, any business. If you buy a Tesla over a Prius you're expecting a much higher quality driving experience. If you're staying at a 5 star hotel vs a Motel 6, you're expecting a lot more. And when you're expecting a lot more, you much more likely to be disappointed and people will complain when they're disappointed.

Maybe your messaging and sales pitch needs a tweak? What to do when you "get it wrong?" You shouldn't have to do anything. IMO you need to up the level of the product so people see value again, reduce the cost, or change what makes your company, your company.

Change your messaging so people see you as a all encompassing compilation of all things fantasy football much like Waldman does/messages with his RSP. It seems like some great knowledge and insight is being spread too thin at this point.

"We help you win more at fantasy football" seems like a slogan that's impossible to deliver on. On that statement alone, a lot of people are going to be disappointed on statistical probability alone. A lot of people won't win. A lot of people won't win "more." I never really expected you to help me win, I expected a compilation of information that was fun to read and in the end was just one tool in drafting/managing a successful team. I view, viewed, Waldman's RSP much the same way. It's a tool that provides new and valuable insights each year.

A lot of the tools that have been added here don't seem to do much else than pull some great minds in a bunch of different directions. In regards to rankings, I feel like the commentary on rankings is much more important than the rankings themselves. Maybe I'm wrong, but towards the end of my pay cycle I felt like rankings provided much more real time/thoughtful analysis whereas now it feels like a lot of people writing are just mailing it in. As a businessman, IMO it's better to be great at one thing than good at several. That's just IMO and I apologize if I'm putting this in a way that puts you on defense. That isn't my intent, I'm trying to help you improve and address your issue, that's all. Nothing more, nothing less. Nothing nefarious in my commentary.

 

[kajaet]

I'm not reading through all of these responses to see if someone captured my feelings..........which somewhat encapsulates why I subscribe. Its not just the weekly rankings for me. it's the contests, the draft prep, updates on what happened sunday, etc. I simply don't have the time or desire to do all that research. I do like winning but I'm not gonna do all that work to do it. So for me it's a convenience that is a bit of a luxury that makes my life easier. I think its similar to hiring a housecleaner to come in once a month. Could I do it the cleaning myself? yes but I don't want to.

Having said that, i don't expect perfection. I can see that in the league dominator, there isn't even consensus among your experts each week. I use all that in-season stuff as a reality check, more or less. but I make the call based on my own thoughts. And sometimes I just like certain players.

I really do enjoy the contests though, I construct my team with my sons, at least an early iteration of it and like following along. You get almost 10,000 people participating in that! hope your business sense is noting the significance of those numbers!

I'd like to see another contest - maybe a last man standing survivor contest too.

Loss of the contests would be an inflection point for me. Assuming you continue to put out well researched info and advice.

Not expecting perfection - I Am expecting a well rounded season long quality football experience and materials

 

[tkrull1]

Random stuff happens. You guys provide data that I use to make my decisions. Footballguys doesn't make my lineup choices.

That said, I would love to see in-season content that puts a number to the accuracy of the contributors to the League Dominator product. Overall variance, individual player variance, positional variance...that kind of thing.

If someone is consistently inaccurate, I can eliminate them from the data I pull in.