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Report: Omicron is much more contagious - Discussion on severity (1 Viewer)

This article from NPR suggests that while Omicron appears to be milder in South Africa, it may be more deadly in the USA: 

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/12/17/1065315661/omicron-may-be-less-severe-in-south-africa-that-may-not-be-the-case-for-the-u-s

If I’m understanding the argument correctly, it’s someone ironic and actually gives some vindication to those who were opposed to shutdowns and masks all along: because South Africa is far less vaccinated than we are, they have developed a form of “herd immunity” to new strains of Covid which we have not. The article doesn’t use that term, but it sure sounds like that’s exactly what the scientists quoted are implying. 
 

Again I’m only linking articles from reputable sources. I’m not making the argument myself. And I hope it’s wrong. 

 
Alex P Keaton said:
As you know, journalists don’t write headlines — editors do.  And they have marching orders to sell their product, so quite often headlines don’t match content.  Like in this case.

I have no idea who continues to complain about this, but their observation isn’t wrong.  The title didn’t match the content.
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OK. I think it’s OK to quote an article title but I’m past it: 

 
timschochet said:
This article from NPR suggests that while Omicron appears to be milder in South Africa, it may be more deadly in the USA: 

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/12/17/1065315661/omicron-may-be-less-severe-in-south-africa-that-may-not-be-the-case-for-the-u-s

If I’m understanding the argument correctly, it’s someone ironic and actually gives some vindication to those who were opposed to shutdowns and masks all along: because South Africa is far less vaccinated than we are, they have developed a form of “herd immunity” to new strains of Covid which we have not. The article doesn’t use that term, but it sure sounds like that’s exactly what the scientists quoted are implying. 
 

Again I’m only linking articles from reputable sources. I’m not making the argument myself. And I hope it’s wrong. 
Click to expand...
It seems to indicate that the concern in the US is the estimated 20% or so who have neither been vaccinated or exposed. For those with no layer of protection, we are less confident in being able to say it will be mild. 

 
Shula-holic said:
Saw this from Nate Silver this morning 

https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1472591767492968449?s=21
Click to expand...
One of the pieces of “good news” he quotes is that hospitalizations are 45% of peak Delta. 
 

Even if that’s true, the problem is that many scientists here believe we haven’t reached peak Delta- that’s coming after the holidays- so if Omicron spreads so much faster and we combine the two and have 45% MORE hospitalizations than we have now, we still arrive at an untenable number. 

 
timschochet said:
This article from NPR suggests that while Omicron appears to be milder in South Africa, it may be more deadly in the USA: 

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/12/17/1065315661/omicron-may-be-less-severe-in-south-africa-that-may-not-be-the-case-for-the-u-s

If I’m understanding the argument correctly, it’s someone ironic and actually gives some vindication to those who were opposed to shutdowns and masks all along: because South Africa is far less vaccinated than we are, they have developed a form of “herd immunity” to new strains of Covid which we have not. The article doesn’t use that term, but it sure sounds like that’s exactly what the scientists quoted are implying. 
 

Again I’m only linking articles from reputable sources. I’m not making the argument myself. And I hope it’s wrong. 
Click to expand...
It’s pure speculation, just like the previous article.  It doesn’t provide any data that would support an assertion that Omicron is more deadly in the US.  It just speculates that hypothetically that *might* be the case, purely based on percentage of population previously infected in each country.  Which is actually poor logic, since we know from other studies that prior infection doesn’t do much to protect against Omicron infection either.

edit to add:  but once again, we already have multiple Covid threads, so I’m done posting in here.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
FBG Moderator said:
Nate Silver

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1472594250931994630?s=20
Click to expand...
The problem here is more with journalists than public health officials.  Both have been terrible throughout the pandemic, but in fairness the public health officials are just using the same terminology they've always used and that they understand.  Everybody who works in anything like a scientific field understands that "lack of evidence for X" isn't "evidence against X."  That part's fine.

The problem is that journalists don't understand these issues well at all.  When you factor in their own lack of qualifications and add in the fact that they're writing for a scientifically naive audience (sorry, tim, but it's not a coincidence that you made exactly this mistake that no practitioner would make) and this is how you get misinformation spreading unchecked through an uninoculated population.

 
pinkham13 said:
https://renz-law.com/wp-content/uploads/DOD-Doc.pdf   Department of defense research shows hospitalizations doubled after the clot shots were administered. 60% of admissions were inoculated. These shots are medical experiments. Nuremberg 2.0
Click to expand...
Ummm…I have no idea regarding the veracity of those slides, but they don’t support anything you’ve posted. To which page(s)/slides of the pdf are you referring?

 
But this article from The Atlantic uses simple math to argue my earlier concern: that even if Omicron is much more mild, it’s rate of spread will lead to so many more hospitalizations that we will be quickly overwhelmed: 

https://amp.theatlantic.com/amp/article/621038/

Look we’re going to have to wait and see. The author of this article believes we have to take drastic action now before the hospitals fill up. That’s not going to happen; we’re not a society that is capable of restricting ourselves in any way until a catastrophe is directly upon us (a fact which has always made me despondent that we can ever deal with climate change). 
 

 
IvanKaramazov said:
The problem here is more with journalists than public health officials.  Both have been terrible throughout the pandemic, but in fairness the public health officials are just using the same terminology they've always used and that they understand.  Everybody who works in anything like a scientific field understands that "lack of evidence for X" isn't "evidence against X."  That part's fine.

The problem is that journalists don't understand these issues well at all.  When you factor in their own lack of qualifications and add in the fact that they're writing for a scientifically naive audience (sorry, tim, but it's not a coincidence that you made exactly this mistake that no practitioner would make) and this is how you get misinformation spreading unchecked through an uninoculated population.
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You don’t have to apologize to me; I’m totally naive. I’m a complete moron when it comes to this scientific stuff. One reason I link these articles is because I know some people here who know what they’re talking about will correct my assumptions. I appreciate very much when that happens. 
On the other hand I don’t particularly love being chastised as if I was making an argument for bad news. Im not a fear mongerer and don’t appreciate being labeled as such. 

 
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timschochet said:
But this article from The Atlantic uses simple math to argue my earlier concern: that even if Omicron is much more mild, it’s rate of spread will lead to so many more hospitalizations that we will be quickly overwhelmed: 
Click to expand...
You know this exact same point has been made over and over for the couple of weeks across the internet, including in the FFA, right?  This is not a novel observation -- it's basic arithmetic.

I'm a big fan of the The Atlantic and long-form journalism in general.  If you're getting your news from The Atlantic and mainstream sources like NPR and Reuters, you're at least 24 hours behind everybody else.  The study that you referenced in the OP, for example, was making the rounds online at least a day or so before Reuters picked it up.  I know of at least one piece that purports to debunk it (haven't read it) that was already written and in press before you noticed this story's existence.

 
IvanKaramazov said:
You know this exact same point has been made over and over for the couple of weeks across the internet, including in the FFA, right?  This is not a novel observation -- it's basic arithmetic.

I'm a big fan of the The Atlantic and long-form journalism in general.  If you're getting your news from The Atlantic and mainstream sources like NPR and Reuters, you're at least 24 hours behind everybody else.  The study that you referenced in the OP, for example, was making the rounds online at least a day or so before Reuters picked it up.  I know of at least one piece that purports to debunk it (haven't read it) that was already written and in press before you noticed this story's existence.
Click to expand...
I honestly didn’t know. The main thread that I was reading in here was shut down. 
Im usually pretty late to the party. 

 
To put in football terms, this is kind of like somebody showing up in week 15 posting a "Hey guys I just noticed that Mahomes is having an off year -- has anybody else said anything about this yet?" take.  

 
IvanKaramazov said:
To put in football terms, this is kind of like somebody showing up in week 15 posting a "Hey guys I just noticed that Mahomes is having an off year -- has anybody else said anything about this yet?" take.  
Click to expand...
I’ve done stuff like that as well. You seem to want to rip me for it which is fine. Doesn’t really change the essential question of how should we deal with this. 

 
zoonation said:
I am shocked you are allowed to post garbage like this.
Click to expand...
Please don’t report it. 
 

Let people post what they want. Let people (including me!) use whatever thread titles they want. If you think it’s garbage or wrong, then explain why in a post; argue your point. 
 

But enough of this “you shouldn’t be allowed to post” stuff and complaining to the moderators all the time. It’s ruining this forum. 

 
timschochet said:
Please don’t report it. 
 

Let people post what they want. Let people (including me!) use whatever thread titles they want. If you think it’s garbage or wrong, then explain why in a post; argue your point. 
 

But enough of this “you shouldn’t be allowed to post” stuff and complaining to the moderators all the time. It’s ruining this forum. 
Click to expand...
I don't report stuff.  I think I have once in 19 years.  Maybe twice.

Comparing vaccines to fight a disease that has killed millions the world over to the Nuremberg experiments is disgusting.  

 
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zoonation said:
I don't report stuff.  I think I have once in 19 years.  Maybe twice.

Comparing vaccines to fight a disease that has killed millions the world over to the Nuremberg experiments is disgusting.  
Click to expand...
Wretched. Ratched. Whatever you want to call it, it's gross and it stinks. If anything should be reported, garbage that does that should be. 

 
If Omicron breaks through vaccination say 500% more often, and is just as deadly to unvaccinated people... is it "milder"?

 
Although our awareness of the disease and diagnostics have certainly improved, I’ll remind the forum there was a 40 day lag between the first reported Covid-19 case and death in the US.

Delta arrived in the US sometime in May 2021, but deaths didn’t spike until the fall. Omicron has only been here since the end of November.

Any way you cut it, it’s way too early to declare omicron less dangerous than prior variants. 

 
NorvilleBarnes said:
"cause"
Click to expand...
I agree the deaths are underestimated, but was being generous saying it was merely a top 2 cause of death.

Even if you fall on the other (aka “wrong”) side of interpreting the death stats, it’s a real stretch to say Covid-19 is anything but a top 10 killer in the US. I suppose that’s not worth worrying about  :shrug:

 
Terminalxylem said:
Any way you cut it, it’s way too early to declare omicron less dangerous than prior variants. 
Click to expand...
Agreed.  Also, omicron is whatever it is, and all our arguing about it won't change a single thing at surface-level reality.  If omicron is milder than delta, great.  If it's not, well that sucks but there's nothing we can do about it. 

What we do know is that omicron is probably going to swamp our ERs and ICUs even if it's quite a bit milder than delta.  It would be smart to exercise a little more caution than normal -- not just about covid, but about everything -- for the next few weeks.

 
timschochet said:
One of the pieces of “good news” he quotes is that hospitalizations are 45% of peak Delta. 
 

Even if that’s true, the problem is that many scientists here believe we haven’t reached peak Delta- that’s coming after the holidays- so if Omicron spreads so much faster and we combine the two and have 45% MORE hospitalizations than we have now, we still arrive at an untenable number. 
Click to expand...
Omicron has been dominant strain in SA for a while now. 

 
IvanKaramazov said:
Agreed.  Also, omicron is whatever it is, and all our arguing about it won't change a single thing at surface-level reality.  If omicron is milder than delta, great.  If it's not, well that sucks but there's nothing we can do about it. 

What we do know is that omicron is probably going to swamp our ERs and ICUs even if it's quite a bit milder than delta.  It would be smart to exercise a little more caution than normal -- not just about covid, but about everything -- for the next few weeks.
Click to expand...
:goodposting:

Fortunately, I’m only working 10 days in the next 2+ months, so the bozos throwing caution to the wind will hopefully sort things out by March 2022.

 
timschochet said:
Please don’t report it. 
 

Let people post what they want. Let people (including me!) use whatever thread titles they want. If you think it’s garbage or wrong, then explain why in a post; argue your point. 
 

But enough of this “you shouldn’t be allowed to post” stuff and complaining to the moderators all the time. It’s ruining this forum. 
Click to expand...
Have to disagree here.

Spending energy looking at laughing emojis is a waste of time. 

Explain why this type of post is made up crap then bouncing it from your business seems like something useful. 

 
IvanKaramazov said:
The problem here is more with journalists than public health officials.  Both have been terrible throughout the pandemic, but in fairness the public health officials are just using the same terminology they've always used and that they understand.  Everybody who works in anything like a scientific field understands that "lack of evidence for X" isn't "evidence against X."  That part's fine.

The problem is that journalists don't understand these issues well at all.  When you factor in their own lack of qualifications and add in the fact that they're writing for a scientifically naive audience (sorry, tim, but it's not a coincidence that you made exactly this mistake that no practitioner would make) and this is how you get misinformation spreading unchecked through an uninoculated population.
Click to expand...
There is actually evidence though. 

So if they are saying there isn't any evidence, they are wrong. There are certainly flaws with the pieces of evidence, but they do exist. 

 
timschochet said:
This article from NPR suggests that while Omicron appears to be milder in South Africa, it may be more deadly in the USA: 

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/12/17/1065315661/omicron-may-be-less-severe-in-south-africa-that-may-not-be-the-case-for-the-u-s

If I’m understanding the argument correctly, it’s someone ironic and actually gives some vindication to those who were opposed to shutdowns and masks all along: because South Africa is far less vaccinated than we are, they have developed a form of “herd immunity” to new strains of Covid which we have not. The article doesn’t use that term, but it sure sounds like that’s exactly what the scientists quoted are implying. 
 

Again I’m only linking articles from reputable sources. I’m not making the argument myself. And I hope it’s wrong. 
Click to expand...
Along these same lines, it's why I don't agree with one of your earlier comments about shutdowns being unavoidable if Omicron is more severe than some suggest.

I'm a vaxxed/boosted/mask everywhere liberal that has taken this very seriously and supported 2020 shutdowns, but I highly doubt the political and public will will ever be there again for any significant shutdown.Certainly not for a Covid strain, and maybe not any disease.

For whatever reason, and there are many from both sides of the argument, any politician that even hints at a significant shutdown in 2022 may as well go ahead and retire from politics forever. 

Heck, the NFL just went with Trump's Spring 2020 philosophy that "the problem is all this dang testing". It's obviously a different time with vaccines, but I think that notion probably is in line with the public in general. 

 
pollardsvision said:
Along these same lines, it's why I don't agree with one of your earlier comments about shutdowns being unavoidable if Omicron is more severe than some suggest.

I'm a vaxxed/boosted/mask everywhere liberal that has taken this very seriously and supported 2020 shutdowns, but I highly doubt the political and public will will ever be there again for any significant shutdown.Certainly not for a Covid strain, and maybe not any disease.

For whatever reason, and there are many from both sides of the argument, any politician that even hints at a significant shutdown in 2022 may as well go ahead and retire from politics forever. 

Heck, the NFL just went with Trump's Spring 2020 philosophy that "the problem is all this dang testing". It's obviously a different time with vaccines, but I think that notion probably is in line with the public in general. 

Not making any comment on the effectiveness of previous shutdowns. That's way above my pay grade. Just commenting on how I think the public would respond to future ones. 
Click to expand...

 
pollardsvision said:
Along these same lines, it's why I don't agree with one of your earlier comments about shutdowns being unavoidable if Omicron is more severe than some suggest.

I'm a vaxxed/boosted/mask everywhere liberal that has taken this very seriously and supported 2020 shutdowns, but I highly doubt the political and public will will ever be there again for any significant shutdown.Certainly not for a Covid strain, and maybe not any disease.

For whatever reason, and there are many from both sides of the argument, any politician that even hints at a significant shutdown in 2022 may as well go ahead and retire from politics forever. 

Heck, the NFL just went with Trump's Spring 2020 philosophy that "the problem is all this dang testing". It's obviously a different time with vaccines, but I think that notion probably is in line with the public in general. 
Click to expand...
It’s not that I disagree with anything you wrote here. I don’t. 
 

But if the hospitals fill up what then? 

 
timschochet said:
It’s not that I disagree with anything you wrote here. I don’t. 
 

But if the hospitals fill up what then? 
Click to expand...
They were full up in Delta and no politicians mentioned a shutdown. 

Far as a I remember, nobody even walked back the stupid CDC thing about "vaccinated people don't need to wear masks" as Delta was raging. Not that politicians could I guess, but that's where we're at. The public was done and no politician was going to question that.

I have no idea what's right. Just can't imagine a scenario where the public goes for a significant shutdown. 

 
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