Chase Stuart
Footballguy
Over at P-F-R, we've been profiling the 25 semifinalists for induction.
John Randle
Roger Craig
Russ Grimm
Steve Tasker
Aeneas Williams
Art Modell
TD has been a lightning rod for discussion, so I thought I'd link to that post here: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=5113
John Randle
Roger Craig
Russ Grimm
Steve Tasker
Aeneas Williams
Art Modell
TD has been a lightning rod for discussion, so I thought I'd link to that post here: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=5113
The tables there are tough to format here, but the rest is available at link: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=5113This past summer I set out to determine which running backs were the most statistically dominant in NFL history. Terrell Davis ranked as the 13th most dominant RB in regular season history, and when combined his superior post-season stats, the 8th most dominant RB overall. The other nine RBs in the top ten all are in the Hall of Fame or will be five years after they retire. Davis is a semifinalist for the fourth straight season since first becoming eligible, but he has never advanced past this stage. Davis is perhaps the most interesting player to analyze in this year's class. There are no QBs eligible for induction, and quarterbacks are the only players for whom more individual statistics are recorded than running backs. There's only one other eligible RB and he's a slam dunk. Davis has the rings and the hardware, typically all you need at the glamour positions to make the Hall. Marcus Allen and Emmitt Smith are the only other running backs with both an MVP from the Associated Press and a Super Bowl MVP. Yet, most NFL fans don't think Davis should be inducted. Why?
The common answer is that Davis' career was too short. Four great seasons does not a Hall of Famer make, or something like that. But consider the heights Davis reached: I ranked his 1998 season as the single greatest season any running back has ever had; he broke his own single-season record for most rushing yards gained in a regular and postseason combined. He already had the record because his 1997 season also ranks among the best five ever by a RB; he's the only player to ever rush for 2300 yards (including playoffs) in a season, and he's done it twice. Davis didn't have four great seasons and nothing else; he had two of the greatest seasons in NFL history, another excellent season, a very good year and another solid season. It's not the greatest Hall of Fame profile I've ever seen, but it seems as though Davis is held to a higher standard than other running backs.
From 1996 to 1998, Davis ranked in the top three in rushing yards and rushing TDs every year; that gives him six top-three finishes in those categories for his career. Marcus Allen and Tony Dorsett? Five each. Franco Harris? Four. John Riggins? Three. Larry Csonka? Two. Those last three -- Harris, Riggins and Csonka -- all won Super Bowl MVPs, and I've got no doubt that they don't all end up in Canton without those performances. But if carrying teams to titles got those guys into the HOF, why won't it work for Davis?
Probably because those guys also strung together a bunch of mediocre seasons. When Csonka retired, he ranked 6th in career rushing yards and 7th in career rushing touchdowns, and everyone in the top ten in rushing through that season wound up in the Hall of Fame. When Harris retired, he was third in both rushing yards and rushing scores. When Riggo hung 'em up, he was 4th in career rushing yards and trailed only Jim Brown in rushing touchdowns. TD? He retired as just the 30th leading rusher in NFL history, and was only 28th in rushing touchdowns.
But Davis was so dominant during his prime that he accomplished more in four seasons than most runners do in their whole careers. Occasionally, P-F-R writers calculate a stat called "yards over 1,000 rush yards" to measure RB dominance; all seasons with fewer than 1,000 rushing yards are eliminated, and the first 1,000 yards of every other season are subtracted from the total. So a 1200 yard season is worth half as much as a 1400-yard season. In this metric, Davis ranks 14th all-time, and ahead of such compilers as Jerome Bettis, Jamal Lewis, Corey Dillon, Fred Taylor and Eddie George.
Davis is also one of just 11 running backs with three 1500+ rushing yards seasons. He won two AP offensive player of the year awards, in addition to his one MVP and one SB MVP. Consider the list of other players with multiple AP OPOY awards: Marshall Faulk (3), Earl Campbell (3), Barry Sanders and Jerry Rice. If not for Sanders' 2,000 yard season in '97, Davis almost certainly would have finished his career with three AP OPOY awards.
Davis' statistical dominance is beyond reproach. That leaves just two questions. One of them concerns his longevity, or lack thereof. The common comparison cited for Davis is Gale Sayers, who also had a brilliant career at the same position cut short by knee injuries. Sayers had a fantastic record as a returner to add to his record, although Davis has the incredible post-season to add to his; still, comparing anyone to Sayers is a tough case to make because of the Kansas Comet's uniquely brilliant style of play. I think Canton houses another, better comparison for Davis backers: Earl Campbell.
Like Davis, Campbell was a workhorse, move-the-chains type of back who had a short but fantastic career. Let's compare the two player's careers through four seasons
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