Closers - 2011 (1 Viewer)

[Eephus]

AL question marks:

Anaheim: Can Fernando Rodney hold the job?

Baltimore: Does Kevin Gregg's contract solidify his role? Is Alfredo Simon guilty?

Chicago: Will Chris Sale start or close? Who's next in line?

Minnesota: How is Joe Nathan's recovery coming?

New York: Does Rafael Soriano have any value in 5x5 leagues?

Oakland: Will the dreaded bullpen by committee rear its ugly head?

Seattle: Will David Aardsma be dealt?

Tampa Bay: Is Jake McGee ready to be the man?

Texas: Will Neftali Feliz start or close?

Toronto: Who saw the Frank Francisco deal coming?

 

[Northern Voice]

Toronto: Who saw the Frank Francisco deal coming?

For starters, none of Frasor, Dotel or Rauch when they signed with the Jays.

 

[Eephus]

Toronto: Who saw the Frank Francisco deal coming?

For starters, none of Frasor, Dotel or Rauch when they signed with the Jays.

It sure is an odd looking committee of right-handed ex-closers

 

[RnR]

Chicago: Will Chris Sale start or close? Who's next in line?

I may be reading that situation wrong, but I'm under the impression that Matt Thornton will be the man. Figured that the Ohman signing was to clear the way for that.

 

[Eephus]

Chicago: Will Chris Sale start or close? Who's next in line?

I may be reading that situation wrong, but I'm under the impression that Matt Thornton will be the man. Figured that the Ohman signing was to clear the way for that.

You may very well be right. It's hard enough for Guillen to read his own mind; it's pretty much impossible for anyone else.

 

[Jethro Q. Walrustitty]

Soriano has some value for those of us who like to utilize good middle relievers in leagues with low innings limits . He has a pretty good K rate and should vulture some wins (I expect the Yankees bullpen will see a lot of decisions this year). Beyond that, unless you're into handcuffing to the most reliable closer in history, I wouldn't bother.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

No one told Alfredo shooting people in the Dominican Republic was illegal. Seems like everyone else is doing it.

 

[Eephus]

NL Pre-season Question Marks:

Atlanta: Kimbrel or Venters?

Arizona: Can their bullpen possibly be worse than 2010?

Cincinnati: When will Dusty realize Coco Cordero isn't a very good pitcher? What will Aroldis Chapman's role turn out to be?

Florida: What does Leo Nunez have to do to lose the job? What does Clay Hensley have to do to win it?

Houston: Does anyone care?

Los Angeles: Will Broxton have a hangover from last year's second half?

Milwaukee: Will Fear the 'Stache replace Fear the Beard?

New York: Is all forgiven between Krod and the organization?

Philadelphia: Which Brad Lidge will show up this year?

Pittsburgh: Meek or Hanrahan? Hanrahan or Meek?

St. Louis: Does anyone other than Tony LaRussa believe in Ryan Franklin? Does it matter?

Washington: Is Drew Storen ready?

 

[Eephus]

Saved for posterity in case I decide to use post #1 during the season

AL question marks:Anaheim: Can Fernando Rodney hold the job?Baltimore: Does Kevin Gregg's contract solidify his role? Is Alfredo Simon guilty?Chicago: Will Chris Sale start or close? Who's next in line?Minnesota: How is Joe Nathan's recovery coming?New York: Does Rafael Soriano have any value in 5x5 leagues?Oakland: Will the dreaded bullpen by committee rear its ugly head?Seattle: Will David Aardsma be dealt?Tampa Bay: Is Jake McGee ready to be the man?Texas: Will Neftali Feliz start or close?Toronto: Who saw the Frank Francisco deal coming?

 

[Captain Hook]

AL question marks:

Anaheim: Can Fernando Rodney hold the job? I would bet against for the whole season...either Walden or Jepsen will get a shot

Baltimore: Does Kevin Gregg's contract solidify his role? Is Alfredo Simon guilty? Gregg is the closer at least to start but I wouldn't bet against Uehara getting some savesChicago:

Will Chris Sale start or close? Who's next in line? Thornton starts as the closer; not clear whether they will let Sale start or work out of the bullpen - really they should give him a chance to win a spot in the rotation in spring training....but it's Ozzie

Minnesota: How is Joe Nathan's recovery coming? Nathan says he will be ready for the season opener

New York: Does Rafael Soriano have any value in 5x5 leagues? Only as a good K/ration buffer

Oakland: Will the dreaded bullpen by committee rear its ugly head? Not unless Bailey gets hurt again

Seattle: Will David Aardsma be dealt? He would have to a) recover completely; and b) pitch well to have any trade value

Tampa Bay: Is Jake McGee ready to be the man? I think so but not sure he wins the job in March

Texas: Will Neftali Feliz start or close? They will stretch him out in spring training and if he shows command of all three pitches move him into the rotation - if not he goes back to closing

Toronto: Who saw the Frank Francisco deal coming? Nobody

 

[Limp Ditka]

It's too early to think about closers until about the 18th round of my draft.

 

[Dr. Awesome]

Oakland: Will the dreaded bullpen by committee rear its ugly head?

Other than injury (a legitimate concern), this job is Bailey's. Fuentes and others were told Andrew is the closer and they're the setup arms.

 

[Dr. Awesome]

Philadelphia: Which Brad Lidge will show up this year?

The one that will kill your whip/walk/era categories but will have a solid k rate and rack up the saves. I'll happily take this guy if I have some steadier arms around him.

 

[Eephus]

Oakland: Will the dreaded bullpen by committee rear its ugly head?

Other than injury (a legitimate concern), this job is Bailey's. Fuentes and others were told Andrew is the closer and they're the setup arms.

I agree Bailey will get the ball to start with but a lot can happen between now and September.

 

[Captain Hook]

It's too early to think about closers until about the 18th round of my draft.

I wish you were in one of my leagues

 

[Dr. Awesome]

Oakland: Will the dreaded bullpen by committee rear its ugly head?

Other than injury (a legitimate concern), this job is Bailey's. Fuentes and others were told Andrew is the closer and they're the setup arms.

I agree Bailey will get the ball to start with but a lot can happen between now and September.

His numbers dropped a bit last year but I wouldn't worry about him losing his job to Fuentes/Balfour/whoever. The biggest concerns imo are:Health. Will he hold up? He had surgery this offseason.This team staying in contention. There was a report Oakland was possibly going to land Papelbon this offseason. I'm still shuked over that one. Beane has a history of treating closers as the easiest cog to replace (iirc he's even gone on record about such things). If the team falls out of the race I could easily see him pawning off Bailey and others.It's possible he'll flip Bailey at the deadline to get a bat and simply slide in one of the other guys as closer (anything is possible when Beane is at the wheel) but I wouldn't base any fantasy draft decisions on this possibility. I certainly don't have him ranked in the top tier of closers but I think he's as good as anyone in tier 2.

 

[Limp Ditka]

It's too early to think about closers until about the 18th round of my draft.

I wish you were in one of my leagues

I play in a league that you must start at least 3 RPs and have finished 3,4,1 over the last 3 years. In those 3 years, I've never drafted a RP before the 16th round.drafting closers early is for suckers

 

[RnR]

It's too early to think about closers until about the 18th round of my draft.

I wish you were in one of my leagues

I play in a league that you must start at least 3 RPs and have finished 3,4,1 over the last 3 years. In those 3 years, I've never drafted a RP before the 16th round.drafting closers early is for suckers

I can assure you that's very wrong in most every major competition. 14 or 15 team leagues with overall prizes do not look favorably upon punting any category. 18th round in a 15 teamer will land you Octavio Dotel as your #1 "closer." Now as far as your local 10-teamer, knock yourself out.

 

[MAC_32]

It's too early to think about closers until about the 18th round of my draft.

I wish you were in one of my leagues

I play in a league that you must start at least 3 RPs and have finished 3,4,1 over the last 3 years. In those 3 years, I've never drafted a RP before the 16th round.drafting closers early is for suckers

I can assure you that's very wrong in most every major competition. 14 or 15 team leagues with overall prizes do not look favorably upon punting any category. 18th round in a 15 teamer will land you Octavio Dotel as your #1 "closer." Now as far as your local 10-teamer, knock yourself out.

Who said anything about punting? You just have to be the first one to John Axford, Chris Perez, Brandon League, Koji Uehera, Alfredo Simon, among many others.Closers pop up out of nowhere every year and only league's with the deepest benches can stash some (not all) of them.

 

[RnR]

Who said anything about punting? You just have to be the first one to John Axford, Chris Perez, Brandon League, Koji Uehera, Alfredo Simon, among many others.Closers pop up out of nowhere every year and only league's with the deepest benches can stash some (not all) of them.

Right, and without a solid closer or two for the first half of the season while you are waiting to spend all your FAAB money on closers, you're getting crushed to the point of no return in the overall save totals. Not taking a relief pitcher until the 18th round of a draft in a major competition is essentially punting the position. Chris Perez was taken well before then, and the rest of those guys probably weren't drafted, and then heavily bid on when their roles became defined. Look, I'm not the kind of guy that likes to draft closers because of the extreme volatility, but to come in here talking about how you can win big time by waiting until round 18 just simply isn't true. Sure, if you're playing in a 10 or 12 team single-league with a waiver wire that theory can work (I use it myself), but it's not a theory that will win the NFBC or WCOFB.

 

[Dr. Awesome]

I see the sharks have filled up their pool and and the piss is now spilling into our cozy corner.

 

[RnR]

NL Pre-season Question Marks:

Atlanta: Kimbrel or Venters?

According to the AJC, early money is probably on Kimbrel. On a very much related side-note from Ken Rosenthal, Billy Wagner has yet to file his retirement papers and still remains on the Braves' 40-man roster.

 

[MAC_32]

Who said anything about punting? You just have to be the first one to John Axford, Chris Perez, Brandon League, Koji Uehera, Alfredo Simon, among many others.Closers pop up out of nowhere every year and only league's with the deepest benches can stash some (not all) of them.

Right, and without a solid closer or two for the first half of the season while you are waiting to spend all your FAAB money on closers, you're getting crushed to the point of no return in the overall save totals. Not taking a relief pitcher until the 18th round of a draft in a major competition is essentially punting the position. Chris Perez was taken well before then, and the rest of those guys probably weren't drafted, and then heavily bid on when their roles became defined. Look, I'm not the kind of guy that likes to draft closers because of the extreme volatility, but to come in here talking about how you can win big time by waiting until round 18 just simply isn't true. Sure, if you're playing in a 10 or 12 team single-league with a waiver wire that theory can work (I use it myself), but it's not a theory that will win the NFBC or WCOFB.

I usually wait until the first big wave of closers strikes around pick 150-200 and get one, maybe two but usually not. Then about 50 picks later I take every closer that's left and start taking arbitrary fliers on middle relievers with closing potential at the tail end. Those guys get dumped at a moments notice for players with better opportunities if they don't pan out and I can spend my budget on them because my offense and pitching staff are so much better well equipped than everyone else that I can afford the risk. If I lose because of injuries then so be it, but I'm not losing because I bought into a Broxton, Valverde, Bailer, Fuentes, Lidge, etc. when I could've waited.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

I look for value. Usually mid-range guys, usually newly-minted closers. I'm of the mind that if you can pitch the 8th inning effectively, there's no reason why you can't do so in the 9th.

 

[griff321]

Nathan is chomping at the bit. He hasn't had a single setback, so he'll report on time in April and he looks ready to rock.

Tough to say if he'll hold up for a full season. Year one after TJ's surgery always seems to be a bit of a roller coaster.

 

[cheese]

NL Pre-season Question Marks:

Atlanta: Kimbrel or Venters?

Arizona: Can their bullpen possibly be worse than 2010?

Cincinnati: When will Dusty realize Coco Cordero isn't a very good pitcher? What will Aroldis Chapman's role turn out to be?

Florida: What does Leo Nunez have to do to lose the job? What does Clay Hensley have to do to win it?

Houston: Does anyone care?

Los Angeles: Will Broxton have a hangover from last year's second half?

Milwaukee: Will Fear the 'Stache replace Fear the Beard?

New York: Is all forgiven between Krod and the organization?

Philadelphia: Which Brad Lidge will show up this year?

Pittsburgh: Meek or Hanrahan? Hanrahan or Meek?

St. Louis: Does anyone other than Tony LaRussa believe in Ryan Franklin? Does it matter?

Washington: Is Drew Storen ready?

Cordero will still be a good pick for fantasy purposes due to situation. Pro's-

Stranglehold on the closers role with no real competition (how would it make sense to throw Chapman into the 9th?)

Pitching for a division winning team

Pretty good defense behind him

Solid starting pitching that doesn't ever throw complete games

Manager that loves sticking with his veterans

History of piling up saves

Cons-

Might pitch as badly as last year (where they never did sway from him)

Hard park to pitch in

 

[Eephus]

Cordero will still be a good pick for fantasy purposes due to situation. Pro's-Stranglehold on the closers role with no real competition (how would it make sense to throw Chapman into the 9th?)Pitching for a division winning teamPretty good defense behind himSolid starting pitching that doesn't ever throw complete gamesManager that loves sticking with his veteransHistory of piling up savesCons-Might pitch as badly as last year (where they never did sway from him)Hard park to pitch in

Cordero turns 36 in May and is in the top ten in appearances among active pitchers. As a whole, Dusty likes veterans but he hasn't been averse in the past to giving the closer role to guys who were young (Rod Beck) or hadn't closed before (Borowski, Dempster). Cordero is almost certain to start the year with the job but I suspect his leash will be shorter than last year. If I was Reds management, I'd try to stretch Chapman into a SP, but they seem determined to keep him in the pen this year. If that's the plan, Chapman is a bigger threat to Cordero's job than Arthur Rhodes was.

 

[Eephus]

Joel Hanrahan gets the early upper han in his battle w/ Evan Meek

Pittsburgh Pirates manager Clint Hurdle opened camp Wednesday by announcing that right-hander Joel Hanrahan will open the season as the team's closer.

 

[Eephus]

After an offseason full of speculation about whether the White Sox would move Chris Sale into the rotation or keep him in the bullpen the drama is already over, as general manager Ken Williams announced that Sale will be used as a reliever.

There's still Matt Thornton to contend with but Sale is probably the front runner to close in April. This move is good for Sale's fantasy value but in real life, I don't like the idea of keeping young talented potential starters in the bullpen.

 

[RnR]

There's still Matt Thornton to contend with but Sale is probably the front runner to close in April.

Not according to Ozzie..

 

[Eephus]

There's still Matt Thornton to contend with but Sale is probably the front runner to close in April.

Not according to Ozzie..

What a crazy organization that is

 

[RnR]

There's still Matt Thornton to contend with but Sale is probably the front runner to close in April.

Not according to Ozzie..

What a crazy organization that is

Well, Ozzie's been know to say one thing and do another.... so that's far from gospel.

 

[Eephus]

There's still Matt Thornton to contend with but Sale is probably the front runner to close in April.

Not according to Ozzie..

What a crazy organization that is

Well, Ozzie's been know to say one thing and do another.... so that's far from gospel.

I wouldn't be totally surprised to see Sale or Thornton playing 3B on opening day

 

[RnR]

There's still Matt Thornton to contend with but Sale is probably the front runner to close in April.

Not according to Ozzie..

What a crazy organization that is

Well, Ozzie's been know to say one thing and do another.... so that's far from gospel.

I wouldn't be totally surprised to see Sale or Thornton playing 3B on opening day

On a more serious note, I keep wanting to mark that as a situation to avoid for fantasy reasons, but I keep coming back to it. Both of these guys have a high enough K-rate paired with awesome ratios to where they'll hold some value either way in a standard league. If you can handcuff both of them later in a draft, it may be a situation to take advantage of.

 

[Eephus]

Not according to Ozzie..

What a crazy organization that is

Well, Ozzie's been know to say one thing and do another.... so that's far from gospel.

I wouldn't be totally surprised to see Sale or Thornton playing 3B on opening day

On a more serious note, I keep wanting to mark that as a situation to avoid for fantasy reasons, but I keep coming back to it. Both of these guys have a high enough K-rate paired with awesome ratios to where they'll hold some value either way in a standard league. If you can handcuff both of them later in a draft, it may be a situation to take advantage of.

Agree. I think once Ozzie picks his man, he'll stick with him. He was more loyal to Jenks over the years than he had any right to be. Also, since they're both lefties, there's no chance of them being a closer committee. I don't think this situation should be lumped in with the confused bullpen messes in Tampa, Seattle, Baltimore and Toronto (maybe even Atlanta).

 

[Good Posting Judge]

I'm guessing he goes with Thornton. When in doubt, rely on a manager relying on going to whomever has the most experience.

 

[Eephus]

I'm guessing he goes with Thornton. When in doubt, rely on a manager relying on going to whomever has the most experience.

except that the White Sox gave Sale the ball in closing situations during their poor excuse for a pennant race last Aug-Sept. I don't understand the thinking in the organization. They spent the 13th overall pick for a college starting pitcher. He was rushed to the majors after only 10 IP (all in relief) and immediately was placed in high pressure situations. He was 4 for 4 in SV opportunities. No matter how high leverage the relief innings are, a SP with 200 IP has more value that a 60 IP RP. But they've announced going into spring training that they're not stretching him out. It's not like he's failed as a SP or had a lot of RP experience in college. If Ozzie picks Thornton to close, they've spent a high draft pick on Neal Cotts. If the Sox think Sale has stamina, pitch selection or funky delivery problems that affect his ability to start, then why draft him in the first place.I have Sale in dynasty so I have a vested interest in him closing but I still think the Sox are crazy if they don't start him. Guillen and Williams are probably crazy regardless.

 

[Northern Voice]

Rauch has an ankle injury, Francisco in the early lead for Jays job.

 

[DoubleBandit]

Toronto: Who saw the Frank Francisco deal coming?

For starters, none of Frasor, Dotel or Rauch when they signed with the Jays.

It sure is an odd looking committee of right-handed ex-closers

I think Francisco is a nice buy at closer this year.

 

[DoubleBandit]

NL Pre-season Question Marks:

Atlanta: Kimbrel or Venters?

According to the AJC, early money is probably on Kimbrel. On a very much related side-note from Ken Rosenthal, Billy Wagner has yet to file his retirement papers and still remains on the Braves' 40-man roster.

I agree Kimbrel

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Kimbrel is like the white Marmol, statistically.

 

[DoubleBandit]

Kimbrel is like the white Marmol, statistically.

Except he isn't a lock to keep the job all year.

 

[Limp Ditka]

I'm guessing he goes with Thornton. When in doubt, rely on a manager relying on going to whomever has the most experience.

except that the White Sox gave Sale the ball in closing situations during their poor excuse for a pennant race last Aug-Sept. I don't understand the thinking in the organization. They spent the 13th overall pick for a college starting pitcher. He was rushed to the majors after only 10 IP (all in relief) and immediately was placed in high pressure situations. He was 4 for 4 in SV opportunities. No matter how high leverage the relief innings are, a SP with 200 IP has more value that a 60 IP RP. But they've announced going into spring training that they're not stretching him out. It's not like he's failed as a SP or had a lot of RP experience in college. If Ozzie picks Thornton to close, they've spent a high draft pick on Neal Cotts. If the Sox think Sale has stamina, pitch selection or funky delivery problems that affect his ability to start, then why draft him in the first place.I have Sale in dynasty so I have a vested interest in him closing but I still think the Sox are crazy if they don't start him. Guillen and Williams are probably crazy regardless.

Not disputing anything you're saying here, but this is how I look at it.They rushed him last year, but once he was here he was here to stay.Peavy's been throwing off a mound for a month + now and they're getting pretty confident that he'll be ready for opening day. Maybe worst case scenario is he misses a start or two.Pena proved pretty effective in a couple of spot starts last year and can be the fall back plan if Peavy isn't ready opening day.Peavy healthy leaves you with a rotation of Danks / Buerhle / Floyd / Edwin / Peavy. There's no room for him right now.I think they just let the kid learn the role he's going to fill this year and don't add a bunch of extra innings to his workload at such a young age. As the pieces of the current rotation start to leave (Buehrle / EJAX both FAs after this year) then you move him in as needed.

 

[Eephus]

I'm guessing he goes with Thornton. When in doubt, rely on a manager relying on going to whomever has the most experience.

except that the White Sox gave Sale the ball in closing situations during their poor excuse for a pennant race last Aug-Sept. I don't understand the thinking in the organization. They spent the 13th overall pick for a college starting pitcher. He was rushed to the majors after only 10 IP (all in relief) and immediately was placed in high pressure situations. He was 4 for 4 in SV opportunities. No matter how high leverage the relief innings are, a SP with 200 IP has more value that a 60 IP RP. But they've announced going into spring training that they're not stretching him out. It's not like he's failed as a SP or had a lot of RP experience in college. If Ozzie picks Thornton to close, they've spent a high draft pick on Neal Cotts. If the Sox think Sale has stamina, pitch selection or funky delivery problems that affect his ability to start, then why draft him in the first place.I have Sale in dynasty so I have a vested interest in him closing but I still think the Sox are crazy if they don't start him. Guillen and Williams are probably crazy regardless.

Not disputing anything you're saying here, but this is how I look at it.They rushed him last year, but once he was here he was here to stay.Peavy's been throwing off a mound for a month + now and they're getting pretty confident that he'll be ready for opening day. Maybe worst case scenario is he misses a start or two.Pena proved pretty effective in a couple of spot starts last year and can be the fall back plan if Peavy isn't ready opening day.Peavy healthy leaves you with a rotation of Danks / Buerhle / Floyd / Edwin / Peavy. There's no room for him right now.I think they just let the kid learn the role he's going to fill this year and don't add a bunch of extra innings to his workload at such a young age. As the pieces of the current rotation start to leave (Buehrle / EJAX both FAs after this year) then you move him in as needed.

All fair points but I think an organization should have a long term plan for their top prospects. If they want Sale to eventually be a starter, they should get him the innings in the minors. Keeping him in the major league bullpen (either as a closer or LOOGY) doesn't help toward that objective.Buerhle, Danks and Jackson are all free agents next year. If I were Kenny Williams, I'd like to know going in to the off-season whether Sale is a viable option as a starting pitcher. Maybe they've already made that decision and they believe stretching him out next year is no big deal. I guess we'll see.