Dynasty & Redraft: RB Matt Jones, Colts (1 Viewer)

[Mr. Irrelevant]

Alfred Morris - RB - Redskins

In a conference call Friday, Redskins coach Jay Gruden said Alfred Morris is still the "lead dog" at running back.

As an Eagles fan, I hope to heck Gruden's telling the truth here.

It's obvious to anyone who's watching that Jones has the higher ceiling in this backfield. So what if he has ball-security issues? AP lost 13 fumbles in his first two seasons as a pro, and you'll recall how that put paid to any hope of making anything of himself in the NFL.

If you're a marginal team, you might as well take chances with the high-upside guys at the skill positions. I don't hate AlMo, mind you, but trotting out the same guys that led you to 4-12 last year and expecting them to magically turn you into a 10-6 team this year is silly.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Who actually started for the Skins? Jones was in on the second play of the game. Alf did get some carries early it's true, but actually another guy getting touches early was Thompson, who was very effective in the pass game. I don't think we have seen the last of him.

 

[HoTnickZ]

Matt sort of blew his chance, for now. He'll be back at some point but expect Gruden to cave the next couple games and give Alf more touches.

Eventually when the Skins record worsens, they'll look toward next year and he should take over.

 

[matuski]

Guy runs exactly like an older Tyrone Wheatley.

 

[JuniorNB]

Matt sort of blew his chance, for now. He'll be back at some point but expect Gruden to cave the next couple games and give Alf more touches.

Eventually when the Skins record worsens, they'll look toward next year and he should take over.

I don't think you could be more wrong. Jones was in on the very next series.

 

[Short Corner]

Great points here. In PPR the pass catching skills make him palpable regardless of the split on the carries.

I know it's only 2 games but he's averaged 1.5 catches / game

True, but he was barely part of the game plan in week one and had zero catches. Last week, they began implementing him and they got him three receptions. It's more about the trends and the way things are headed than it is the average per game. He's 'averaging' 12.5 carries per game. But he went from 6 to 19 in a week. So the 19 is more important than the 12.5 or certainly the 6.

 

[HoTnickZ]

Matt sort of blew his chance, for now. He'll be back at some point but expect Gruden to cave the next couple games and give Alf more touches.

Eventually when the Skins record worsens, they'll look toward next year and he should take over.

I don't think you could be more wrong. Jones was in on the very next series.

That could be true, but that maybe due to the Skins playing from behind (which may continue anyway). That Gruden felt he had to state Alf is the lead back after the game means Alf has tenure and public pressure could lead him to get the next shot.

The other thing I noticed is Cousin's doesn't look to throw to his RB's much at all, this year at least. Jones would be a deadly weapon on the catch and run.

 

[JuniorNB]

Matt sort of blew his chance, for now. He'll be back at some point but expect Gruden to cave the next couple games and give Alf more touches.

Eventually when the Skins record worsens, they'll look toward next year and he should take over.

I don't think you could be more wrong. Jones was in on the very next series.

That could be true, but that maybe due to the Skins playing from behind (which may continue anyway). That Gruden felt he had to state Alf is the lead back after the game means Alf has tenure and public pressure could lead him to get the next shot.

The other thing I noticed is Cousin's doesn't look to throw to his RB's much at all, this year at least. Jones would be a deadly weapon on the catch and run.

Jones caught three the week before. The times they passed with Jones in there against the Giants, he had to pick up blitzes (which he did well). Cousins' terrible play and the fact they fell way behind changed the dynamic of the game. In weeks one and two, Gruden was extremely run heavy. As with most backs, Jones' success will hinge on Washington staying in the game.

 

[MNTom]

Matt sort of blew his chance, for now. He'll be back at some point but expect Gruden to cave the next couple games and give Alf more touches.

Eventually when the Skins record worsens, they'll look toward next year and he should take over.

I don't think you could be more wrong. Jones was in on the very next series.

That could be true, but that maybe due to the Skins playing from behind (which may continue anyway). That Gruden felt he had to state Alf is the lead back after the game means Alf has tenure and public pressure could lead him to get the next shot.

The other thing I noticed is Cousin's doesn't look to throw to his RB's much at all, this year at least. Jones would be a deadly weapon on the catch and run.

Thompson is the receiving rb and saw plenty of passes

 

[Bojang0301]

Skins got caught with their pants down on the first few drives. Once Giants took lead, Cousins couldn't get them back into it. Jones looked good still. The 4th down run everyone is complaining about would never have been made by Morris. I understand Alf has been steady Eddie for some time now but he's always been an underwhelming talent who survived on playing smart and being in the right scheme. He will have a good market for next season but it's clear there is a superior talent in Washington.

 

[Wonderllama]

Picked up Matt Jones before the season. Felt pretty good. Saw Week 1. Dropped him. Other priorities came up in the waiver

Saw Week 2, someone else got him... felt pretty bad. Now this game. Thank god I don't have him, or else I'd be tempted to drop him AGAIN! Kirk Cousins is still the QB, Alfred Morris is not going away... maybe it won't happen for Jones this year. He just won't be reliable. But he'll be everyone's favorite sleeper in 2016

 

[FGITLOTR]

Picked up Matt Jones before the season. Felt pretty good. Saw Week 1. Dropped him. Other priorities came up in the waiver

Saw Week 2, someone else got him... felt pretty bad. Now this game. Thank god I don't have him, or else I'd be tempted to drop him AGAIN! Kirk Cousins is still the QB, Alfred Morris is not going away... maybe it won't happen for Jones this year. He just won't be reliable. But he'll be everyone's favorite sleeper in 2016[/quote

You drop a guy after one sub par game? It's a long season

 

[HoTnickZ]

Matt sort of blew his chance, for now. He'll be back at some point but expect Gruden to cave the next couple games and give Alf more touches.

Eventually when the Skins record worsens, they'll look toward next year and he should take over.

I don't think you could be more wrong. Jones was in on the very next series.

That could be true, but that maybe due to the Skins playing from behind (which may continue anyway). That Gruden felt he had to state Alf is the lead back after the game means Alf has tenure and public pressure could lead him to get the next shot.

The other thing I noticed is Cousin's doesn't look to throw to his RB's much at all, this year at least. Jones would be a deadly weapon on the catch and run.

Thompson is the receiving rb and saw plenty of passes

Good point, that's even worse then.

 

[JuniorNB]

Matt sort of blew his chance, for now. He'll be back at some point but expect Gruden to cave the next couple games and give Alf more touches.

Eventually when the Skins record worsens, they'll look toward next year and he should take over.

I don't think you could be more wrong. Jones was in on the very next series.

That could be true, but that maybe due to the Skins playing from behind (which may continue anyway). That Gruden felt he had to state Alf is the lead back after the game means Alf has tenure and public pressure could lead him to get the next shot.

The other thing I noticed is Cousin's doesn't look to throw to his RB's much at all, this year at least. Jones would be a deadly weapon on the catch and run.

Thompson is the receiving rb and saw plenty of passes

Good point, that's even worse then.

Thompson is the 'redskins are way behind so they have to pass' guy. But in a closer game, where you're not trying to tip your hand, Morris and Jones will still be screen pass possibilities. I think we'll see a lot of Thompson on third and longs and out of hand games.

 

[omahawildcat25]

So I Matt Jones worth holding on to after I blew almost half of my waiver budget on him? Or should he be dropped for a Karlos Williams?

 

[Ketamine Dreams]

I'd drop him for Williams. I may drop him for the next flavor-of-the-week pickup.

 

[Andrew74]

Just a

 

[Hankmoody]

Picked up Matt Jones before the season. Felt pretty good. Saw Week 1. Dropped him. Other priorities came up in the waiver

Saw Week 2, someone else got him... felt pretty bad. Now this game. Thank god I don't have him, or else I'd be tempted to drop him AGAIN! Kirk Cousins is still the QB, Alfred Morris is not going away... maybe it won't happen for Jones this year. He just won't be reliable. But he'll be everyone's favorite sleeper in 2016

You drop a guy after one sub par game? It's a long season

In redraft, sure. If it's a smaller league or short benches it would be easy to just wash your hands of an ugly weekly pick 'em. He's a no-brainer hold in dynasty of course.

 

[Zdravko]

Went for a mid-first on one of my leagues. Half the league thinks one owner is crazy; the other half thinks the other owner is.

 

[habsfan]

Hold'em until you can't. That's my motto...

 

[jdoggydogg]

Hold in redraft, covet in dynasty.

Seems unlikely that there are a lot of good RB prospects on your waiver wire, so I think it'd be better to drop your fifth WR or your second TE than to drop Jones. Too much potential.

 

[tangfoot]

Went for a mid-first on one of my leagues. Half the league thinks one owner is crazy; the other half thinks the other owner is.

This is my fear: that I'll end up on the wrong side of it.

 

[ATB]

Anybody think this guy has a good day on the ground since ~20mph winds are expected and Cousins can't be trusted??

I'm tempted to roll him out since I need a high-upside guy to beat the best team in my league.

 

[FGITLOTR]

I'm going Ryan Matthews over him...what are your options?

 

[STEADYMOBBIN 22]

I'm going Ryan Matthews over him...what are your options?

Same here.

 

[ATB]

I'm going Ryan Matthews over him...what are your options?

CJ, JStew, Randle, Gurley, DJohnson, MJones, CMikeStarting CJ and Randle. Sitting JStew bc he's banged up, doesn't get goal line work, and has underperformed this far.

My WRs are thin so gotta flex an RB.

 

[The General]

Stuffed.

 

[ATB]

Good sign he's still getting red zone carries.

 

[The General]

Got the goaline carry again. Gets stuffed then looks like another run to him that is a muffed snap TD run for Cousins. Great to see but actually getting a TD would be kind of cool.

 

[ponchsox]

This guy sucks

 

[ATB]

Jones would've gotten that TD if not for the fumbled snap by Cousins.

Guy can't get any ####### luck.

 

[valhallan]

That was the first rush TD Philly has allowed all year. They're a tough matchup. Aside from Thompson breaking a huge gain on a draw on third and long, the Skins have been stuffed at the line constantly.

 

[TDorBust]

I chalk this up to the skins sucking which will happen quite often. I see no change to his status in my mind of bye week filler and possible lighting in a bottle from time to time.

Don't see Morris doing anything but it's sad he can't take advantage of the poor play of Morris to leverage more carries later in the season.

 

[ATB]

No more carries in this game? Stuck at 7??

 

[ponchsox]

Looks like Morris is the man

 

[TDorBust]

No more carries in this game? Stuck at 7??

Might see him in the red zone if they get there.

 

[Darryl Talley]

Is he a buy low?

 

[Donnybrook]

Didn't play him this week but pondering whether to start him vs Atlanta. Atlanta D is not good vs the run.

 

[Wonderllama]

Anyone that's a fan of 1 point games should definitely start him

 

[Zdravko]

Alfred Morris will likely be gone in the offseason, but the emergence of Chris Thompson as a legitimate receiving threat definitely hurts MJ's long-term value.

 

[zftcg]

Didn't play him this week but pondering whether to start him vs Atlanta. Atlanta D is not good vs the run.

How can you with any confidence? At this point he probably has to prove it in two straight games before you can totally trust him.

 

[Shutout]

If I owned, I'd be selling right now. Value is sky high, but I don't think it will be sustained. Will be surprised if he's able to stay healthy in the NFL. I don't think he'll be able to protect himself enough to avoid injury.

I don't like to predict injuries but I agree otherwise. This feels like the topic yesterday when discussing TRICH and having that general awareness of when his highest value was (and should have sold).

Jones is probably at that point currently, given realistic expectations.

Poor kid. He peaked so soon. His highest ever value was after three preseason games. What a tragic tale.

There have been MANY players who peaked in the pre-season.

And we're talking about perceived value here. Rookie players with a hype machine behind them always generate more buzz. If he was second year player, etc, it wouldn't be the same.

I guarantee you his value is more right this moment than it will be in week 5 of the season. Black dot that and let's chat later.

Well. here we are at week 5. We calling this one a push or do a few people want to discuss value now versus where we sat September 2?

I'm not trying to be right or wrong. Just think it was a good perspective conversation because his value fluxed so much but I do think overall, it seems to be unfolding much like I said in an earlier post that day where the frustrations of the Redskins transferred to Jones. He had a terrific game when nobody expected it but has been pretty much the 3 point kid otherwise.

Where does that leave his value going into a week 5 lineup versus where we were after he tantilized us in the pre-season?

 

[Meatwad Reloaded]

I am dropping him this week. I think he only presents real value if Morris gets hurt and I am not waiting around for that to happen. Skins look like they are going to all in this year. 8 or 9 wins is probably going to win that division, so they gotta play the vets.

 

[Shutout]

I am dropping him this week. I think he only presents real value if Morris gets hurt and I am not waiting around for that to happen. Skins look like they are going to all in this year. 8 or 9 wins is probably going to win that division, so they gotta play the vets.

Good point about the division. Somebody is going to win this thing with 10 or less, easy. There could be some really ugly contests out there. The Redskins seem to really appreciate Morris' all around game and I think we can all accept that. He is a good player.

To me this is a lot like David Johnson in Arizona. THe fantasy upside is enticing. We (ff guys) want to see these guys in there but the real world teams have different values and priorities. I know that David Johnson and Matt Jones are more valuable to their teams on ST and in situational roles but dangit I want to see them out there carrying 20-25 times.

But in the end, just like my post from earlier, I knew the value was hype driven and unrealistic. Would love to have him in dynasty though.

 

[We Tigers]

I'm not sure I'd call it hype-driven. The issue is more that the Redskins have found an extremely capable third down back in Thompson, whose rise has made this a mostly useless three-man committee. I think his effectiveness has been the biggest impact.

Jones is droppable in redraft, but there's plenty of reason to keep him as your last bench guy, too. Depends on how deep your league is and how badly the bye weeks are going to affect you.

 

[Shutout]

I'm not sure I'd call it hype-driven. The issue is more that the Redskins have found an extremely capable third down back in Thompson, whose rise has made this a mostly useless three-man committee. I think his effectiveness has been the biggest impact.

Jones is droppable in redraft, but there's plenty of reason to keep him as your last bench guy, too. Depends on how deep your league is and how badly the bye weeks are going to affect you.

By definition, it is hype-driven (intense promotion and publicity, often exaggerating its importance or benefit).

In the real world he is what a lot of people said. In Fantasy, he misses the mark...at this time, because the true value does not match the benefit or importance of the advertisement.

 

[Darryl Talley]

Buy low?

 

[MattFancy]

Buy low?

In re-draft? I don't know. Morris isn't going anywhere this year and Chris Thompson is getting the work on passing downs. Hard to trust Jones as anything other than a Morris handcuff for now.

 

[Van Dyman]

Buy low?

In re-draft? I don't know. Morris isn't going anywhere this year and Chris Thompson is getting the work on passing downs. Hard to trust Jones as anything other than a Morris handcuff for now.

A Morris handcuff? I'd only burn a roster spot on top RBs, guys where you'd really be screwed if they got hurt. Right now Morris is barely startable himself. It's hard to justify using a roster spot on a Morris handcuff at this point. Maybe in bigger leagues, perhaps.

TDs are hard to predict, but Morris has ZERO through five games. That ain't good. If I had to start one, I'd prefer Jones' low floor and higher ceiling right now than Morris's slightly higher floor and very low ceiling.

 

[ATB]

I dropped him to pickup Hankerson (hurting at WR). Going to drop David Johnson for Charcandrick West too.