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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (39 Viewers)
- Thread starter John Bender
- Start date
Frostillicus
Footballguy
NCAAB decided to take tomorrow off to honor NCAAF it looks like. Makes sense.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Oregon Ducks (-5.5, 74)
Game to be played at AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
Fourth-seeded Ohio State and second-seeded Oregon earned the honors of playing in the first College Football Playoff title game when the schools square off at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, on Jan. 12. The Buckeyes barely squeezed into the four-team playoff system with a strong season-ending push and produced an epic 42-35 victory over Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. The Ducks have been on a season-long scoring frenzy and took their dominance to another level with a powerful 59-20 rout of defending champion Florida State in the Rose Bowl.
Oregon has the star attraction with quarterback Marcus Mariota, the landslide winner of the 2014 Heisman Trophy voting who passed for 4,111 yards and 40 touchdowns and rushed for 731 yards and 15 scores. While Mariota is expected to be one of the first picks in the NFL Draft if he declares, Ohio State will again be counting on third-stringer Cardale Jones after losing Braxton Miller (shoulder) and J.T. Barrett (ankle) to season-ending injuries. Jones has thrown six touchdown passes and been intercepted once in 69 attempts, and engineered back-to-back wins over Wisconsin (59-0) and Alabama.
Buckeyes coach Urban Meyer is chasing his third national title – his first two were at Florida – with a squad that was all but ruled out when it lost to Virginia Tech in early September. Instead, the Buckeyes possess the nation’s longest winning streak (12) and is trying to match the school record of 14 victories. Oregon has already set a school record for victories and is playing in its second national championship game – the first being when Cam Newton-led Auburn pulled out a 22-19 win over the Ducks following the 2010 season.
TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.
LINE HISTORY: Oregon opened as 7-point favorites but now sit -5.5. The total opened anywhere from 72.5 to 76, but is currently 74.
INJURY REPORT: Buckeyes - TE Jeff Heuerman (Probable, foot), RB Dontre Wilson (Probable, foot). Ducks - OL Andre Yruretagoyena (Probable, ankle), RB Kani Benoit (Probable, possible suspension), DE Christian French (Questionable, possible suspension), WR Devon Allen (Doubtful, knee).
WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Ohio State has been ultra impressive in their last two games, but the Buckeyes were facing two power teams in Wisconsin and Alabama. The Oregon Ducks are built in a different way as they play with pace and speed, looking to wear out their opponent. It will be interesting to see if Ohio State can handle the change in style, especially since they’ve only had ten days to prepare for this game." Covers Expert Steve Merril
WHAT BOOKS SAY: "When we opened the game on January 2nd, 85 percent of cash in the first 10 hours was on Oregon -7, so we moved the Ducks to -7.5. On January 4th, we got sharp play on the Buckeyes +7.5, so moved Ducks back to -7. Another sharp play game on Ohio State +7 on January 7th, so moved Oregon to -6.5. January 10th, we moved Oregon to -6, to stay in line with most of the market. Betting trends: 65 percent of cash and 69 percent of bets on the spread are backing the Ducks. 75 percent of cash on the moneyline is taking the Buckeyes +160 (Moneyline opened Oregon -240/Buckeyes +200). Total opened 74.5, climbed to 75.5 and now is at 75. No sharp action on it. 57 percent of bets on the OVER and 5 percent of cash on the UNDER." Mike Jerome, TopBet.eu.
ABOUT OHIO STATE (13-1 SU, 9-5 ATS, 12-2 O/U): Running back Ezekiel Elliott rushed for a Sugar Bowl-record 230 yards – including a dynamic 85-yard scoring run – and his 1,632 rushing yards rank fourth in Buckeyes’ history behind Eddie George (1,927 in 1995), Keith Byars (1,764, 1984) and Archie Griffin (1,695, 1974). Big play receiver Devin Smith caught his 30th career touchdown pass in the Sugar Bowl – a 47-yard catch – and is averaging 27.7 yards per reception this season while scoring 12 TDs on 32 catches. The defensive standouts include weak-side linebacker Joshua Perry (team-leading 118 tackles), safety Vonn Bell (86 tackles, team-best six interceptions), defensive end Joey Bosa (team-high 13.5 sacks), strong-side linebacker Darron Lee (7.5 sacks) and cornerback Doran Grant (five interceptions).
ABOUT OREGON (13-1 SU, 10-4 ATS, 7-6-1 O/U): Mariota guided the attack to Rose Bowl records for points and yardage (639) while accounting for three scores (two passing, one rushing), passing for 338 and rushing for 62 more. The Ducks have two fine backfield options in Royce Freeman (1,343 yards, 18 touchdowns) and Thomas Tyner (511 yards, five touchdowns) while receiver Darren Carrington (37 catches, 704 yards) is emerging as a star after having seven receptions for 165 yards and two touchdowns in the Rose Bowl. Defensively, free safety Erick Dargan leads the team with 90 tackles and seven interceptions and had one pick and one forced fumble in the Rose Bowl while outside linebacker Tony Washington (six sacks) was part of one of the memorable plays in the Rose Bowl when Florida State quarterback Jameis Winston lost a fumble and Washington returned it 58 yards for a touchdown.
TRENDS:
* Buckeyes are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 vs. Pac-12.
* Ducks are 4-0 ATS in their last four bowl games.
* Over is 21-5 in Buckeyes last 26 games overall.
* Under is 5-2 in Ducks last seven bowl games.
Game to be played at AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
Fourth-seeded Ohio State and second-seeded Oregon earned the honors of playing in the first College Football Playoff title game when the schools square off at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, on Jan. 12. The Buckeyes barely squeezed into the four-team playoff system with a strong season-ending push and produced an epic 42-35 victory over Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. The Ducks have been on a season-long scoring frenzy and took their dominance to another level with a powerful 59-20 rout of defending champion Florida State in the Rose Bowl.
Oregon has the star attraction with quarterback Marcus Mariota, the landslide winner of the 2014 Heisman Trophy voting who passed for 4,111 yards and 40 touchdowns and rushed for 731 yards and 15 scores. While Mariota is expected to be one of the first picks in the NFL Draft if he declares, Ohio State will again be counting on third-stringer Cardale Jones after losing Braxton Miller (shoulder) and J.T. Barrett (ankle) to season-ending injuries. Jones has thrown six touchdown passes and been intercepted once in 69 attempts, and engineered back-to-back wins over Wisconsin (59-0) and Alabama.
Buckeyes coach Urban Meyer is chasing his third national title – his first two were at Florida – with a squad that was all but ruled out when it lost to Virginia Tech in early September. Instead, the Buckeyes possess the nation’s longest winning streak (12) and is trying to match the school record of 14 victories. Oregon has already set a school record for victories and is playing in its second national championship game – the first being when Cam Newton-led Auburn pulled out a 22-19 win over the Ducks following the 2010 season.
TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.
LINE HISTORY: Oregon opened as 7-point favorites but now sit -5.5. The total opened anywhere from 72.5 to 76, but is currently 74.
INJURY REPORT: Buckeyes - TE Jeff Heuerman (Probable, foot), RB Dontre Wilson (Probable, foot). Ducks - OL Andre Yruretagoyena (Probable, ankle), RB Kani Benoit (Probable, possible suspension), DE Christian French (Questionable, possible suspension), WR Devon Allen (Doubtful, knee).
WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Ohio State has been ultra impressive in their last two games, but the Buckeyes were facing two power teams in Wisconsin and Alabama. The Oregon Ducks are built in a different way as they play with pace and speed, looking to wear out their opponent. It will be interesting to see if Ohio State can handle the change in style, especially since they’ve only had ten days to prepare for this game." Covers Expert Steve Merril
WHAT BOOKS SAY: "When we opened the game on January 2nd, 85 percent of cash in the first 10 hours was on Oregon -7, so we moved the Ducks to -7.5. On January 4th, we got sharp play on the Buckeyes +7.5, so moved Ducks back to -7. Another sharp play game on Ohio State +7 on January 7th, so moved Oregon to -6.5. January 10th, we moved Oregon to -6, to stay in line with most of the market. Betting trends: 65 percent of cash and 69 percent of bets on the spread are backing the Ducks. 75 percent of cash on the moneyline is taking the Buckeyes +160 (Moneyline opened Oregon -240/Buckeyes +200). Total opened 74.5, climbed to 75.5 and now is at 75. No sharp action on it. 57 percent of bets on the OVER and 5 percent of cash on the UNDER." Mike Jerome, TopBet.eu.
ABOUT OHIO STATE (13-1 SU, 9-5 ATS, 12-2 O/U): Running back Ezekiel Elliott rushed for a Sugar Bowl-record 230 yards – including a dynamic 85-yard scoring run – and his 1,632 rushing yards rank fourth in Buckeyes’ history behind Eddie George (1,927 in 1995), Keith Byars (1,764, 1984) and Archie Griffin (1,695, 1974). Big play receiver Devin Smith caught his 30th career touchdown pass in the Sugar Bowl – a 47-yard catch – and is averaging 27.7 yards per reception this season while scoring 12 TDs on 32 catches. The defensive standouts include weak-side linebacker Joshua Perry (team-leading 118 tackles), safety Vonn Bell (86 tackles, team-best six interceptions), defensive end Joey Bosa (team-high 13.5 sacks), strong-side linebacker Darron Lee (7.5 sacks) and cornerback Doran Grant (five interceptions).
ABOUT OREGON (13-1 SU, 10-4 ATS, 7-6-1 O/U): Mariota guided the attack to Rose Bowl records for points and yardage (639) while accounting for three scores (two passing, one rushing), passing for 338 and rushing for 62 more. The Ducks have two fine backfield options in Royce Freeman (1,343 yards, 18 touchdowns) and Thomas Tyner (511 yards, five touchdowns) while receiver Darren Carrington (37 catches, 704 yards) is emerging as a star after having seven receptions for 165 yards and two touchdowns in the Rose Bowl. Defensively, free safety Erick Dargan leads the team with 90 tackles and seven interceptions and had one pick and one forced fumble in the Rose Bowl while outside linebacker Tony Washington (six sacks) was part of one of the memorable plays in the Rose Bowl when Florida State quarterback Jameis Winston lost a fumble and Washington returned it 58 yards for a touchdown.
TRENDS:
* Buckeyes are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 vs. Pac-12.
* Ducks are 4-0 ATS in their last four bowl games.
* Over is 21-5 in Buckeyes last 26 games overall.
* Under is 5-2 in Ducks last seven bowl games.
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
Chance of rain in Seattle next weekend.
Frostillicus
Footballguy
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Too long to post, but a good article here about the impact of Oregon losing their top two WRs.
Herbie just said on SportsCenter that it won't be as big of a deal as a lot of people think.
Herbie just said on SportsCenter that it won't be as big of a deal as a lot of people think.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
77 points in a "sledgehammer game" with a track meet coming up. Why am I leery of 74.5 again?
Frostillicus
Footballguy
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
I actually like Manning, but you have to think he is thinking hard about being done. That was embarassing, and the last qtr of the season he was a shell. Yes he wasnt healthy but no arm strength left. It's like he has to do everything else perfect now because he can't do anything close to what he could in the past.
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
He agreed that we would give the loser $100. So $650 if OSU win's and $100 for Oregon win
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
GB -2.5 vs. IND | 54.5NE -2.5 vs. GB | 57 SEA -4 vs. IND | 44SEA -2 vs. NE | 46potential super bowl lines
Angry Beavers
Footballguy
FWIW, based on all the press about how this will be a track meet etc., I think the way to play this is to take the over after the first quarter. I think we are going to see some nerves take over on the first couple of drives that will result in no points.
I am not sure what the hell Herbie is talking about, but the more I read about the loss of Carrington the more I like Ohio State here. I am not betting the game as I have an OSU future @ 5-1 currently pending ( placed when the final 4 was announced, should have waited for 8-1
), but will likely add some additional position in live betting if it makes sense.
GLTA
AB
I am not sure what the hell Herbie is talking about, but the more I read about the loss of Carrington the more I like Ohio State here. I am not betting the game as I have an OSU future @ 5-1 currently pending ( placed when the final 4 was announced, should have waited for 8-1
), but will likely add some additional position in live betting if it makes sense.GLTA
AB
Treynwreck3
Footballguy
Manning looks like he is done. I actually felt bad for the guy last night, getting booed in what is likely his last career game. Why would he come back for another year? He needs to get out while his legacy is still somewhat intact.
Treynwreck3
Footballguy
Seattle currently -7.5 and Patriots -7. I think the Seahawks take care of GB handily, but I don't know what to think about Indy. Are they that good, or was Denver just that bad?
By the way, I am on the Ducks -6 tonight. I don't think the Buckeyes can handle that tempo.
By the way, I am on the Ducks -6 tonight. I don't think the Buckeyes can handle that tempo.
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Man In The Box
Footballguy
I'm in the Manning is injured camp. Got the hell beat out of him vs. the Rams and wasn't the same since. I'm not saying he's going to still be the 55 TD Manning, but he's not done. I think he comes back next year for one more run.
mquinnjr
Footballguy
Considering a square tease down on the Conf. Champ games, don't see either home team losing. Seahawks D against a not-100% Rodgers should limit their scoring, and I see them winning that one. I think there's some recency bias in counting on the Colts on the road in Foxboro, as I don't think the Broncos team they just beat is nearly as good as how the Pats are looking right now.
Don't Noonan
Footballguy
Sharps coming in on Oregon
mquinnjr
Footballguy
Would
to see him drop to 3rd round (or later) value in re-draft if he really was playing injured this whole time since the Rams game and the ADP on Manning plummets. If it were to come out that he was playing healthy and his arm is just shot as it looked last night, I'm out under all circumstances.ETA: And there we have it, per Schefter a few minutes ago: https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/554667776384589824
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Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
The funny thing is that while it would have been a tightass fit, all of these covered without the teaser points.
Chalk Monday Tease at RB:
Oregon Pk
Sea -1.5
NE -1
Oregon Pk
Sea -1.5
NE -1
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
I will prob take the points in both of these. Not saying Seattle aint good. But the finished up with
Zona, 49ers, Phi, SF, Zona, STL, CAR
Think they perceived how good the team is may be a little inflated.
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
If I've learned anything from the Shark Pool the Seahawks are a combination of the 85 Bears and the Greatest Show On Turf
ChainsawU
Footballguy
SI is saying with 79% confidence that Ohio State will go to 5.5.
Team Spd% ML% OU%277 Ohio State 37% 73% 51%278 Oregon 63% 27% 49%Key numbers in NCAA are different than in the NFL.
Key Numbers in College Football (1980-2012) MOV Hits % of Games 3 1790 8.11% 7 1419 6.43% 10 914 4.14% 4 910 4.13% 14 876 3.97% 17 836 3.79% 1 799 3.62% 21 790 3.58% 2 668 3.03% 24 648 2.94% 6 640 2.90% 5 601 2.72%You can see out of this list of key numbers that the 6 and the 5 fall at the very bottom. So it's not as serious until it gets to either 4 (.413) or 7 (.643). For the over backers, I thought it was interesting that the O/U was pretty much split down the middle.
mquinnjr
Footballguy
John Bender
Footballguy
Spent time there these past 2 weeks for a sociology study (jk)
I've learned:
Fans of Packers, Seahawks, Bears, Lions, Cowboys, Giants, Patriots, Broncos, Eagles, Chargers are all the biggest tools and the worst fan base ever.
The disputed calls from the weekend were 100% GOOD CALLS.
The disputed calls from the weekend were 100% BAD CALLS
There are 1000 +/- "tools" in the SP
Rodgers is the greatest QB ever
Brady is the greatest QB ever
Manning is the greatest QB ever
The Patriots cheat
The Jets cheat
The refs cheat FOR the Cowboys
The refs cheat FOR the Packers
Goodell makes sure the refs call the games the way he wants them
Goodell was only in the stands Sat. night to influence the game in favor of his good friend Bisciotti
Goodell was only in the stands Sat. night to influence the game in favor of his good friend Kraft
Sherman is the biggest tool ever
Sherman is NOT the biggest tool ever
YOU'RE A TOOL
no...YOU'RE A TOOL
Trolling the game thread is funny
Trolling the game thread is not funny, even if you weren't the one trolling it, your divorce will be brought up in retaliation
Every call was the WORST call ever
The refs are helping out the Cowboys again
The refs are helping out the Ravens again
The refs are helping out the Patriots again
The refs are helping out the Seahawks again
Peyton Manning is DONE
Peyton Manning was just injured.
Doug Marrone IS A TOOL
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
will never forget that.
same bet at 5d was SEA -2.5 and NE -1.5 so I don't think it's hurting me here.
Man In The Box
Footballguy
I'll sometimes spend a half an hour or so over there just to feel better about my life. Better than therapy IMO.
lumpy19
Footballguy
regularguy
Footballguy
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
Cardale o1.5 TD passes
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Glad to hear I blew several grand on a guy playing on an amputated leg. I hope he picks up a Papa Johns pizza and gets hit by a bus on the way out.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Also nice to see that the NFL injury report is completely irrelevant.
lumpy19
Footballguy
Normally with something like this you'd see the line react even if it wasn't widely known and then after the game is played you realize someone had that info before the game. It's amazing to me that Denver got bet so heavily with Mannings condition.
Treynwreck3
Footballguy
Makes you wonder if the Colts knew something was up. They certainly didn't have to respect the deep ball at all, and if Peyton had no legs under him, that would explain his lack of arm strength.
lumpy19
Footballguy
The colts didn't know anything....My guess is nobody but manning knew. If anyone else knew it'd show up in the line, word would get out. Limits on an NFL playoff game are ridiculous. Piles of money to be made with that kind of info.
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
Angry Beavers
Footballguy
Seeing how even a strain is technically a "tear" I honestly wonder if this report coming out now isn't just Denver's way of trying to save some face for Manning. I would think that if he had the same depth of strain/tear that Rodgers is playing with you would have seen limited practice time, we would be limping at least a little, etc. What did Denver and or Manning have to gain by having Manning practice and hide the injury if it really is that significant?
As far as no arm strength, IIRC, he was over throwing his deep throws, not underthrowing them. Clearly he was off, but how much of it is the leg and how much it is "diminishing skills" is something we might not know.
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