FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (21 Viewers)

[Raider Nation]

Found it

How did you get the link to start at that spot? Nicely done.

1) Right click on the video at the point you desire2) Left click on "Copy video URL at current time"

3) Paste

 

[Sweet Feet]

Pop Warner Championship on ESPN2

team is up 22-0 and runs a fake punt on 4th & 19 and gets the 1st late in the 4th

then runs a power formation behind the RG for a TD

ESPN then cuts to one of the kids from the other team walking off the field crying with his helmet off repeating "I dont wanna play no more" with a long "ughhmmm" at the end

 

[Raider Nation]

ESPN then cuts to one of the kids from the other team walking off the field crying with his helmet off repeating "I dont wanna play no more"

Was it Ryan Mathews?

 

[NIU Kicker]

I have been over served.

 

[TheWick]

I have been over served.

Ditto...at home

 

[cosjobs]

Found it

How did you get the link to start at that spot? Nicely done.

1) Right click on the video at the point you desire2) Left click on "Copy video URL at current time"

3) Paste

this changes everything

 

[Raider Nation]

Sharps Report -- LITTLE CAESAR’S BOWL (Detroit)

WESTERN KENTUCKY (7-5) vs. CENTRAL MICHIGAN (6-6)

Vegas Line: Western Kentucky by 6, total of 58

Market Moves: Western Kentucky opened around -6, but was bet down to as low as -5 in the build-up to the bowl. Support has come in once again for the favorite though since two of Central Michigan’s cohorts from the MAC have played poorly in the postseason. Toledo lost to Utah State 41-15. Ball State lost to Central Florida 38-17. Both scores were as bad as they sounded in the boxscore stats. Many bettors are holding those losses against Central Michigan, even if they don’t know much about Western Kentucky. Note that Louisiana-Lafayette of the Sun Belt won it’s bowl game against East Carolina.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE

Western Kentucky: 104th

Central Michigan: 121st

Both of these teams played very soft schedules by national standards. If you’re one of those on the anti-MAC bandwagon, you’ll want to know that Central Michigan had worse records than Toledo and Ball State while playing a softer schedule.

Ball State 9-3 vs. the 79th ranked schedule

Toledo 9-3 vs. the 106th ranked schedule

Central Michigan 6-6 vs. the 121st ranked schedule

Now, this doesn’t mean that Western Kentucky is in the same class as Utah State and Central Florida. But, the Hilltoppers will be facing a poor team from a bad conference though…and it’s a borderline scandal that a team as bad as Central Michigan gets to play in a bowl while a good team like Louisiana Tech has to sit at home. The edge to this point does go to the favorite, as Western has a better record vs. a tougher schedule….and it’s possible that the Sagarin computer ratings at USA Today has overrated the MAC schedules given how poorly Toledo and Ball State have shown.

OFFENSE

Western Kentucky: 70th (41st rushing, 93rd passing)

Central Michigan: 67th (76th rushing, 53rd passing)

Very tight here. Central Michigan is slightly better overall, while playing the slightly easier schedule. That comes out in the wash. Two mediocre offenses who would likely struggle badly if they played in real conferences.

DEFENSE

Western Kentucky: 22nd (33rd rushing, 31st passing)

Central Michigan: 94th (97th rushing, 77th passing)

Big edge here to Western Kentucky, which is why the market is favoring them to a meaningful degree in this game. We wouldn’t suggest that Western would be a top 25 defense if they played in a major conference. But, that’s a great job for a Sun Belt team. Central Michigan’s defense was ABYSMAL because they posted poor numbers vs. a very easy schedule. Let’s note here that superior defenses have been doing well so far in the postseason. Those with the better defensive ranking, even not adjusting for strength of schedule, are 4-3 straight in the early bowls (and it would have been 5-2 if Nevada hadn’t blown a big late lead in a game they covered anyway). Those with advantages of at least 30 spots in this key indicator stat are 3-1 ATS, with covers going to Nevada, Utah State, and BYU, while the only loss was by Fresno State this past Monday.

ADDING IT ALL UP

To this point, the key indicators and early bowl results are pointing to Western Kentucky at this spread. The Sun Belt is undefeated straight up and ATS. The MAC is winless straight up and ATS. Western Kentucky has the better defense, and the better team. JIM HURLEY has been handicapping bowls for decades though. He knows that Central Michigan will draw a decent home crowd in Detroit. He knows that favorites tend to get too high on themselves in these early bowls (which nailed Fresno State the other night). And, he knows that Louisiana Lafayette was lucky to cover as the superior team in its game with East Carolina. The Sun Belt may have cashed a ticket…but Lafayette didn’t necessarily inspire the kind of “blowout” confidence you want in this spread range.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

I have been over served.

You got served?

 

[Doctor Detroit]

My buddy is still in his survivor league and it goes through the NFL playoffs.

He still has Denver available but he can use Denver twice in the playoffs if he doesn't use them in week 17. However he's out if he loses this week.

Best choices:

Denver

Chargers v Oakland

Giants v Eagles

Thoughts?

 

[Angry Beavers]

My buddy is still in his survivor league and it goes through the NFL playoffs. He still has Denver available but he can use Denver twice in the playoffs if he doesn't use them in week 17. However he's out if he loses this week.Best choicesenverChargers v OaklandGiants v EaglesThoughts?

That is tough. Giants even though they just looked like poop. If he uses Denver who else would he have left come playoffs ?

 

[bryan11joseph]

Anyone in on Arizona tonight? In the tournament championship against SDSU?

 

[ChainsawU]

Indiana State vs. Miami Florida u128 -120

I bought the half point just in case this ended up going into overtime

 

[bryan11joseph]

Indiana State vs. Miami Florida u128 -120

I bought the half point just in case this ended up going into overtime

Good call, I tailed. Merry Christmas everyone!

 

[Doctor Detroit]

My buddy is still in his survivor league and it goes through the NFL playoffs. He still has Denver available but he can use Denver twice in the playoffs if he doesn't use them in week 17. However he's out if he loses this week.Best choicesenverChargers v OaklandGiants v EaglesThoughts?

That is tough. Giants even though they just looked like poop. If he uses Denver who else would he have left come playoffs ?

He would have all playoff teams available. But if he doesn't use Denver, he could theoretically use Denver twice as a carryover. Problem I said was that Denver would likely have to play the Patriots in the 2nd round, highly unlikely you'd use them there. So if you used them twice it would be in the AFCCG and Super Bowl.

 

[bryan11joseph]

Indiana State vs. Miami Florida u128 -120

I bought the half point just in case this ended up going into overtime

C'saw - Where do you get your Totals plays? I am curious because I like tailing. Didn't know if there was someone you followed - or if you had your own strategy. I know this was discussed before. But I am curious to know more...

 

[got_nugs]

Indiana State vs. Miami Florida u128 -120

I bought the half point just in case this ended up going into overtime

Impressive when you hit the under of an overtime game. I tailed too, good call!

 

[Doctor Detroit]

The rare NBA win.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

A family member of mine revealed tonight at dinner how much money he and his partner made during the 80's/90's. They were in the "manufacturing" and "distribution" business.

Spoiler

$8,000,000.

 

[bryan11joseph]

A family member of mine revealed tonight at dinner how much money he and his partner made during the 80's/90's. They were in the "manufacturing" and "distribution" business.

Spoiler

$8,000,000.

They were both in Industrial Distribution? I am curious because I work for a Manufacturer and deal with distributors daily.Was this a family-owned dist or a national? I would assume family-owned. I know a few of mine do pretty well for themselves...

 

[derek245583]

A family member of mine revealed tonight at dinner how much money he and his partner made during the 80's/90's. They were in the "manufacturing" and "distribution" business.

Spoiler

$8,000,000.

They were both in Industrial Distribution? I am curious because I work for a Manufacturer and deal with distributors daily.Was this a family-owned dist or a national? I would assume family-owned. I know a few of mine do pretty well for themselves...I thought he was saying they were in the "waste management" business

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

A family member of mine revealed tonight at dinner how much money he and his partner made during the 80's/90's. They were in the "manufacturing" and "distribution" business.

Spoiler

$8,000,000.

They were both in Industrial Distribution? I am curious because I work for a Manufacturer and deal with distributors daily.Was this a family-owned dist or a national? I would assume family-owned. I know a few of mine do pretty well for themselves...Pretty sure he's talking about Walter White stuff.

 

[Guster]

A family member of mine revealed tonight at dinner how much money he and his partner made during the 80's/90's. They were in the "manufacturing" and "distribution" business.

Spoiler

$8,000,000.

Spoiler

They were both in Industrial Distribution? I am curious because I work for a Manufacturer and deal with distributors daily.Was this a family-owned dist or a national? I would assume family-owned. I know a few of mine do pretty well for themselves...

Pretty sure he's talking about Walter White stuff.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

A family member of mine revealed tonight at dinner how much money he and his partner made during the 80's/90's. They were in the "manufacturing" and "distribution" business.

Spoiler

$8,000,000.

Spoiler

They were both in Industrial Distribution? I am curious because I work for a Manufacturer and deal with distributors daily.Was this a family-owned dist or a national? I would assume family-owned. I know a few of mine do pretty well for themselves...

Spoiler

Pretty sure he's talking about Walter White stuff.

Rude is correct. Other guy had a degree in chem. from MIT. No shtick. From what he says it wasn't that dramatic or crazy, obviously.

 

[The Ref]

A family member of mine revealed tonight at dinner how much money he and his partner made during the 80's/90's. They were in the "manufacturing" and "distribution" business.

Spoiler

$8,000,000.

Spoiler

They were both in Industrial Distribution? I am curious because I work for a Manufacturer and deal with distributors daily.Was this a family-owned dist or a national? I would assume family-owned. I know a few of mine do pretty well for themselves...

Spoiler

Pretty sure he's talking about Walter White stuff.

Spoiler

Rude is correct. Other guy had a degree in chem. from MIT. No shtick. From what he says it wasn't that dramatic or crazy, obviously.Good for him if he was able to make that much coin and then walk away. I cant imagine getting into one of these situations without a retirement number in mind. The other thing is with the way money is tracked now days whats the real difference between $15M and $30M? It's not like you can show up with a check for $10M and buy a house on the ocean if you are unemployed or even working a $100K a year job. Might as well cut it off at a number you can actually spend over a lifetime without setting off all sorts of flags.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

A family member of mine revealed tonight at dinner how much money he and his partner made during the 80's/90's. They were in the "manufacturing" and "distribution" business.

Spoiler

$8,000,000.

Spoiler

They were both in Industrial Distribution? I am curious because I work for a Manufacturer and deal with distributors daily.Was this a family-owned dist or a national? I would assume family-owned. I know a few of mine do pretty well for themselves...

Spoiler

Pretty sure he's talking about Walter White stuff.

Spoiler

Spoiler

Rude is correct. Other guy had a degree in chem. from MIT. No shtick. From what he says it wasn't that dramatic or crazy, obviously.

Good for him if he was able to make that much coin and then walk away. I cant imagine getting into one of these situations without a retirement number in mind. The other thing is with the way money is tracked now days whats the real difference between $15M and $30M? It's not like you can show up with a check for $10M and buy a house on the ocean if you are unemployed or even working a $100K a year job. Might as well cut it off at a number you can actually spend over a lifetime without setting off all sorts of flags.Oh, he didn't walk away. He did time. The money's long, long gone. His partner skipped bail, skipped the country, and has never been heard from again.Know when to say when.

 

[ChainsawU]

Indiana State vs. Miami Florida u128 -120

I bought the half point just in case this ended up going into overtime

C'saw - Where do you get your Totals plays? I am curious because I like tailing. Didn't know if there was someone you followed - or if you had your own strategy. I know this was discussed before. But I am curious to know more...

Yeah we discussed it before. I check out a lot of different forums. I get a feel for stuff and when I see a play that intrigues me, that’s when I go check it out on my own. I confirm numbers, look at situations, injuries, late breaking injuries, twitter feeds, plug it into JB’s system, plug it into BRONG’s system, look at early line movement, look at late line movement, and finally run it past modogg. And if I still like it after all that stuff and modogg hates it, that’s when I make it a play.Yesterday had a lot to do with it being Christmas and those kids playing the third place game in a tournament far away from home in Hawaii. We got pretty lucky in that the refs were letting shooters get murdered the whole game and Mr. Clutch for the Sycs banked the game winner off the glass or else that one was going into double OT.I have already said too much.

 

[John Bender]

Know when to say when.

In my experience, none of these guys know when to say when. Had a buddy that was doing very well as a bookie, bought a house/car and had plenty locked away for a rainy day. I told him 100 times to stop - gave him the whole speech about how it's never going to be enough and to get out before he gets caught. He never did and had his house raided and cars taken away from him. Idiots.

 

[John Bender]

Would you rather hang out in the "Christianity is the most persecuted religion" thread for one week or have to take the entire 2013 NFL season off from gambling?

ETA: you must only visit that thread for the entire week. No navigating elsewhere within FBG or on :e:

You must engage timschochang, mad sweeney, jonmx and cross eyed all in a debate and not stop responding to their posts with rebuttals for the entire week.

 

[The Ref]

A family member of mine revealed tonight at dinner how much money he and his partner made during the 80's/90's. They were in the "manufacturing" and "distribution" business.

Spoiler

$8,000,000.

Spoiler

They were both in Industrial Distribution? I am curious because I work for a Manufacturer and deal with distributors daily.Was this a family-owned dist or a national? I would assume family-owned. I know a few of mine do pretty well for themselves...

Spoiler

Pretty sure he's talking about Walter White stuff.

Spoiler

Spoiler

Rude is correct. Other guy had a degree in chem. from MIT. No shtick. From what he says it wasn't that dramatic or crazy, obviously.

Spoiler

Good for him if he was able to make that much coin and then walk away. I cant imagine getting into one of these situations without a retirement number in mind. The other thing is with the way money is tracked now days whats the real difference between $15M and $30M? It's not like you can show up with a check for $10M and buy a house on the ocean if you are unemployed or even working a $100K a year job. Might as well cut it off at a number you can actually spend over a lifetime without setting off all sorts of flags.

Oh, he didn't walk away. He did time. The money's long, long gone. His partner skipped bail, skipped the country, and has never been heard from again.Know when to say when.Thats a shame. Even in todays money if I could get $1.5M saved I'd be calling it the career. I'd ask to get put on the layoff list, payoff my house, prepay my child's college, and work seasonal jobs every now and again.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

A family member of mine revealed tonight at dinner how much money he and his partner made during the 80's/90's. They were in the "manufacturing" and "distribution" business.

Spoiler

$8,000,000.

Spoiler

They were both in Industrial Distribution? I am curious because I work for a Manufacturer and deal with distributors daily.Was this a family-owned dist or a national? I would assume family-owned. I know a few of mine do pretty well for themselves...

Spoiler

Pretty sure he's talking about Walter White stuff.

Spoiler

Spoiler

Rude is correct. Other guy had a degree in chem. from MIT. No shtick. From what he says it wasn't that dramatic or crazy, obviously.

Spoiler

Good for him if he was able to make that much coin and then walk away. I cant imagine getting into one of these situations without a retirement number in mind. The other thing is with the way money is tracked now days whats the real difference between $15M and $30M? It's not like you can show up with a check for $10M and buy a house on the ocean if you are unemployed or even working a $100K a year job. Might as well cut it off at a number you can actually spend over a lifetime without setting off all sorts of flags.

Oh, he didn't walk away. He did time. The money's long, long gone. His partner skipped bail, skipped the country, and has never been heard from again.Know when to say when.

 

[The Ref]

Know when to say when.

In my experience, none of these guys know when to say when. Had a buddy that was doing very well as a bookie, bought a house/car and had plenty locked away for a rainy day. I told him 100 times to stop - gave him the whole speech about how it's never going to be enough and to get out before he gets caught. He never did and had his house raided and cars taken away from him. Idiots.

And the thing is he could have sold his book of business to someone else for a few bucks as a going away present.

 

[ChainsawU]

Little Caesars Bowl

[*]Lance Guidry, who was WKU’s defensive coordinator, will coach the bowl game against Central Michigan. WKU lost head coach Willie Taggart but has since hired Bobby Petrino to replace him. Guidry said new coach Bobby Petrino has given him no assurances that he will stay, and WKU won’t make any official announcements until after the bowl game. It has also been an emotional time for Guidry with the passing of his mother-in-law a week ago. He missed last Thursday’s practice to attend the funeral in Lake Charles. During the regular season, head coach Willie Taggart called plays. Tonight, running-game coordinator Walt Wells will be calling the plays, along with input from passing-game coordinator Nick Sheridan. Guidry will be juggling his defensive coordinator duties as well as overall game management.

[*]WKU is making its first bowl appearance and will do so without their best pass rusher Quanterus Smith (knee). WKU is 16-1 ATS the last 17 away from home. The game they missed covering was by 1 point.

[*]WKU junior running back Antonio Andrews is 273 yards short of Barry Sanders' 3,250 all-purpose yards. Andrews has 200-plus rushing yards in each of his last two games, and CMU has allowed 197 rushing yards per game vs. opponents this year.

[*]CMU has also allowed 30 or more points to 8 of 12 opponents this season and is 2-13 ATS as underdogs the last two seasons.

[*]These teams each average about 64 plays per game, and combined the teams run the ball about 56% of the time.

 

[ChainsawU]

I'm thinking about fading the interim coach tonight. And WKU in their first bowl appearance. ML even looks good.

 

[gussy]

I'm on WKU -6 tonight.

C. Michigan's wins have come against:

SE Mo. St. 3-8 in FCS

Iowa 4-8 B1G's worst team

Akron 1-11

E. Michigan 2-10

Miami, O 4-8

UMASS 1-11

They're not a good football team at all. I'm also leaning towards the over.

 

[gussy]

My NBA record is atrocious. That being said I'm thinking about playing the Pacers tonight -5. Deng may not play, Pacers are rested, Bulls are not. Only thing making me hesitate is Bulls recent ATS record against Indiana. Any thoughts?

 

[ChainsawU]

I'm on WKU -6 tonight.C. Michigan's wins have come against:SE Mo. St. 3-8 in FCSIowa 4-8 B1G's worst teamAkron 1-11E. Michigan 2-10Miami, O 4-8UMASS 1-11They're not a good football team at all. I'm also leaning towards the over.

CMU did win 4 out of their last 5 to become bowl eligible. But to support your pick they only outgained their opponents on offense in 2 out of their 6 wins (v SEMO and UMASS):

Total Offensive Yards:8/30  SEMO 308 CMU 4959/22  IOWA 430 CMU 39410/27 AKR  492 CMU 44411/10 EMU  414 CMU 40311/17 MOH  434 CMU 38611/23 MASS 317 CMU 344

 

[Doctor Detroit]

I'm 0-6 on Bowl sides so far and I have 1.5u on WKU tonight.

Trapity, trap, trapiltrap-trap.

 

[ChainsawU]

:lemur:

 

[optionmaven]

I'm 0-6 on Bowl sides so far and I have 1.5u on WKU tonight. Trapity, trap, trapiltrap-trap.

Roughly 35% of my bankroll on the Hilltoppers and ovah. Not flinching for a second here. Not with the stud DL out. Not with the coaching situation. Not with the home field advantage. 3 bowl games i had penned in immediately after the numbers came out. One we got semi lucky with was Utah st. We should have been able to count our money at half time instead of mid 4th quarter. This is game number 2 tonight. Game number 3 is Stanford over Wisky.

 

[ChainsawU]

After watching SMU defensive end Margus Hunt destroy Fresno State's offensive line and reading Chris Low’s article I have a question.

One point Low made was that the 98th ranked Chippewa run defense is a product of opposing a lot of spread offenses in the MAC. And that it will be a different story versus Western Kentucky, who will try to set the tone with its running game right off the bat, and are extremely physical in their offensive line and utilization of multiple tight end sets. How do you handicap this?

 

[optionmaven]

After watching SMU defensive end Margus Hunt destroy Fresno State's offensive line and reading Chris Low’s article I have a question.

One point Low made was that the 98th ranked Chippewa run defense is a product of opposing a lot of spread offenses in the MAC. And that it will be a different story versus Western Kentucky, who will try to set the tone with its running game right off the bat, and are extremely physical in their offensive line and utilization of multiple tight end sets. How do you handicap this?

Actually a great point. Not sure you do cap this unless you go through alot more homework of checking through each team they played and decipher their standard formations/style of play and such. Lots of good running qb's in the Mac too that might be skewing the numbers. I tried looking for my original post capping this game but I suck at the search thing. Hilltoppers were competetive vs. the best teams in their conference and beat the conf. champion. CMU got dusted by the good teams of the MAC. I think putting W.Kentucky in the same vein as Toledo, Ball st., Ohio U, and Bowling Green is fair.

 

[optionmaven]

Visions of Antonio Andrews breaking past the line of scrimmage and watching 3 or 4 chippewa defenders chasing him to the end zone happening multiple times. Perhaps a kick return too.

Edit: Not a single prop available for him on SB. Chicken shiite mfers.

 

[optionmaven]

After watching SMU defensive end Margus Hunt destroy Fresno State's offensive line and reading Chris Low’s article I have a question.

Granted i didn't see all the game. BUT........I thought Fresno's OL and DL looked like they were about as motivated as the linemen in the Pro Bowl last yr. Or maybe like defenders at the NHL All Star game. Blame Carr too, he blew monkey balls.

 

[oukurt]

Have all Realbettor issues been resolved? Most impoortantly are lines being released on time again? Any other requests while I am on a roll?

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Have all Realbettor issues been resolved? Most impoortantly are lines being released on time again? Any other requests while I am on a roll?

why do ties count as a loss in teasers? seems to be the only book that grades things this way.

 

[Clorox]

Can you bring back player props just for the NFL playoffs please?

 

[LOCO]

WKU coach

not betting against this guy.

 

[The Ghost]

Have all Realbettor issues been resolved? Most impoortantly are lines being released on time again? Any other requests while I am on a roll?

why do ties count as a loss in teasers? seems to be the only book that grades things this way.

2nd

 

[bryan11joseph]

My NBA record is atrocious. That being said I'm thinking about playing the Pacers tonight -5. Deng may not play, Pacers are rested, Bulls are not. Only thing making me hesitate is Bulls recent ATS record against Indiana. Any thoughts?

Just our luck that the Pacers game is postponed tonight!

 

[oukurt]

Have all Realbettor issues been resolved? Most impoortantly are lines being released on time again? Any other requests while I am on a roll?

why do ties count as a loss in teasers? seems to be the only book that grades things this way.

This book started as a local book and was so for many years. Most locals I knew at the time had the ties on teasers as a loss. It rarely comes into play but the few times a year it happens I hear about it. I bring it up now and then and will continue to do so.