** Road To The 2018 Triple Crown - 5/10: Justy Back On (The) Track, Ruis Will Ship Bolty/Duck The Rain ** (1 Viewer)

[hagmania]

Just took a tally of picks from my department and looks like my first ticket is Good Magic-My Boy Jack-Justify.

One has a cat named Magic they talk about all the time, and something about My Boy Jack dancing got him second. Then I explained odds to them and the favorite got several votes after the fact.

 

[hagmania]

I'll be making a slightly more educated stab at it later.

 

[Quint]

Just took a tally of picks from my department and looks like my first ticket is Good Magic-My Boy Jack-Justify.

One has a cat named Magic they talk about all the time, and something about My Boy Jack dancing got him second. Then I explained odds to them and the favorite got several votes after the fact.

$50 on Junebug to win...

 

[otb_lifer]

Just took a tally of picks from my department and looks like my first ticket is Good Magic-My Boy Jack-Justify.

One has a cat named Magic they talk about all the time, and something about My Boy Jack dancing got him second. Then I explained odds to them and the favorite got several votes after the fact.

and those tix hit, and the winners have a blast watching/rooting/partying - sans all the mofo agita us "pros" endure 

my gf and daughter plucked their "out the hat" $1 tri box earlier - Lone Sailor/Combatant/Noble Indy (dunno how well they shook that ish), but now i gotta play it for them tomorrow ... if that thing actuslly hits they'll be much wealthier than they are today. by a nice chunk. 

 

[General Malaise]

Anybody on the Oaks?  

Didn't realize Calvin came out of retirement.  Riding the 8 horse in this one.  Long odds.  Should probably throw $2 ATB on this one.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

I know this has been covered somewhere in here but it bears repeating. The last 2 and 3 of the last 5 KDs have been won by winner of Florida Derby.

Audible also show climbing Brisnet ratings of 85-91-94-105-107 in his five races.

Post 5 has produced the most Derby winners, with an 11.4 win percentage.

Plus I like the connections.

After a few drinks & flirting with a couple other horses, I'm going home with a solid 5.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Anybody on the Oaks?  

Didn't realize Calvin came out of retirement.  Riding the 8 horse in this one.  Long odds.  Should probably throw $2 ATB on this one.

I like the 14 but what do I know.

 

[General Malaise]

I know this has been covered somewhere in here but it bears repeating. The last 2 and 3 of the last 5 KDs have been won by winner of Florida Derby.

Audible also show climbing Brisnet ratings of 85-91-94-105-107 in his five races.

Post 5 has produced the most Derby winners, with an 11.4 win percentage.

Plus I like the connections.

After a few drinks & flirting with a couple other horses, I'm going home with a solid 5.

Beautiful prose!  Would be very happy with an Audible/Mendy ticket with Rosso in third. 

 

[JaxBill]

For the Oaks playing 7 WPS. Figuring Baffert's horse gets a piece of the action.

Everybody is talking Bissou so I put together a Tri bet of 10 / (2,7) / (2,5,7)

 

[mquinnjr]

Anybody on the Oaks?  

Didn't realize Calvin came out of retirement.  Riding the 8 horse in this one.  Long odds.  Should probably throw $2 ATB on this one.

IN

 

[General Malaise]

So, usually go offshore or use a local, but figured I'd give TVG a spin. $75 match on $75 immediately upon deposit. My account shows $225...anyone ever have this happen with the legal guys? Thinking let it ride. 

How long does it take TVG to payout if you win?  Thinking of opening an account. Tired of the OTB here and their 5% vig

 

[mquinnjr]

How long does it take TVG to payout if you win?  Thinking of opening an account. Tired of the OTB here and their 5% vig

We shall find out (hopefully). First time using them for the Derby.

 

[Cowboysfan8]

How long does it take TVG to payout if you win?  Thinking of opening an account. Tired of the OTB here and their 5% vig

Been a few yrs but when I used xpressbet and made a withdraw it went right on my debit card.

Never used tvg

 

[General Malaise]

We shall find out (hopefully). First time using them for the Derby.

I didn't get any bonus.  Did you have a code? 

 

[NYCelt]

Hey guys.  What is the best site to bet the race on. Just a one time thing probably, maybe the other two legs as well.  My buddy is a conowner of one of the derby horses so have to throw something on it.  Looking for clean, easy and no shade. Thanks

 

[Dan Lambskin]

Hey guys.  What is the best site to bet the race on. Just a one time thing probably, maybe the other two legs as well.  My buddy is a conowner of one of the derby horses so have to throw something on it.  Looking for clean, easy and no shade. Thanks

I like Twin Spires but have used Xpressbet 

TVG also legit.

note:  check restrictions for your state

 

[mquinnjr]

I didn't get any bonus.  Did you have a code? 

I called 5 mins after deposit because it didn't hit immediately. Said 20-30 mins after deposit. I think they manually pushed one to me, and then the auto match kicked in. 

 

[Dan Lambskin]

I like the 10 and 11 in the oaks

think the 3 could hit the board, seems to be the main speed

 

[NYCelt]

I like Twin Spires but have used Xpressbet 

TVG also legit.

note:  check restrictions for your state

In NY

 

[General Malaise]

Anybody on the Oaks?  

Didn't realize Calvin came out of retirement.  Riding the 8 horse in this one.  Long odds.  Should probably throw $2 ATB on this one.

Went 7,8,10 here.

Sexy Sierra the bartender likes Chocolate Martini so she has $2 ATB on her. 

 

[NYCelt]

My buddy’s other horse just won.  

 

[Cowboysfan8]

My buddy’s other horse just won.  

How much did you win?

 

[Skinny]

about to bet at local track on the oaks.  on the 14, but many are.  going to package with the 3 and 9.

so key 14 in exacta with 3,9.

good luck everyone!

 

[shadrap]

been listening to a few podcasts while paying bills.  hearing that Audible might have a problem with the distance.  Any concern?

 

[NYCelt]

How much did you win?

Nothing. I am stuck at work and can’t use betting sites.   Odds weren’t great anyway. 2-1 I think?

 

[QuizGuy66]

what the actual hell?!

MBJ was rounding out my four-horse TBX. 

feck. 

don't worry Francesa tank mushed him today.

-QG

 

[NYCelt]

don't worry Francesa tank mushed him today.

-QG

I know I heard. 

 

[wikkidpissah]

been listening to a few podcasts while paying bills.  hearing that Audible might have a problem with the distance.  Any concern?

His dosage is 5.00, which is higher than the Derby guideline of 4.25 or under. However, he is a relatively cheaply-bred horse, meaning the great sires which determine that number are less forwardly present than in horses bred to the purple. There are some speedy horses in Audible recent influencess, but there's a lot of classic blood generations back and his female line is strong, including an Alabama Stakes (Saratoga's big mile & a quarter race for fillies & mares) winner

 

[hockeymedic]

Always love to read this thread every year.  Thanks to all for the analysis and opinions.  I have a betting question concerning payouts.  On a $1 trifecta bet, does it change the payout if I bet three tickets ie; 1 over 1,2,3,4,5 over 1,2,3,4,5, - 2 over 1,2,3,4,5 over 1,2,3,4,5, etc or I bet one ticket 1,2,3 over 1,2,3,4,5 over 1,2,3,4,5,  the single win bet is $12 each, and the 1,2,3, win bet is $36.  Does either have a higher payout or are they the same payout.  Thanks

 

[Cowboysfan8]

Always love to read this thread every year.  Thanks to all for the analysis and opinions.  I have a betting question concerning payouts.  On a $1 trifecta bet, does it change the payout if I bet three tickets ie; 1 over 1,2,3,4,5 over 1,2,3,4,5, - 2 over 1,2,3,4,5 over 1,2,3,4,5, etc or I bet one ticket 1,2,3 over 1,2,3,4,5 over 1,2,3,4,5,  the single win bet is $12 each, and the 1,2,3, win bet is $36.  Does either have a higher payout or are they the same payout.  Thanks

I'd like to help you out, but I have no idea wth this means

 

[shadrap]

can someone briefly explain:

Trifecta - pick top 3 finishers in order

Exacta - top 2 in order

Superfecta. - top  4 in order

also the "box" them - bet all combinations of that # of horses. So exacta box would be 2 combos (1-2, 2-1). So a $1 exacta box bet would cost you $2.  Trifecta box 6 combos (1-2-3, 1-3-2, 2-1-3, etc..).  $1 trifecta box bet would cost you $6.

thanx man.  I've now got a grip.

 

[JShare87]

Anybody on the Oaks?  

Didn't realize Calvin came out of retirement.  Riding the 8 horse in this one.  Long odds.  Should probably throw $2 ATB on this one.

I had a 20 dollar tri 14/3,7/10. I should’ve listen to OTB with the 5, I would’ve been 3,600 richer. 

 

[Dan Lambskin]

Always love to read this thread every year.  Thanks to all for the analysis and opinions.  I have a betting question concerning payouts.  On a $1 trifecta bet, does it change the payout if I bet three tickets ie; 1 over 1,2,3,4,5 over 1,2,3,4,5, - 2 over 1,2,3,4,5 over 1,2,3,4,5, etc or I bet one ticket 1,2,3 over 1,2,3,4,5 over 1,2,3,4,5,  the single win bet is $12 each, and the 1,2,3, win bet is $36.  Does either have a higher payout or are they the same payout.  Thanks

Same payout

in both cases it’s 36 separate bets, just one way on a single ticket the other on 3 tickets

 

[Quint]

I had a 20 dollar tri 14/3,7/10. I should’ve listen to OTB with the 5, I would’ve been 3,600 richer. 

new favorite band name: 

Rider's Objection

(hit the TBX for $90 and change. if they'd've DQ'd the 14 it would have been a good payout) #notcomplaining 

 

[QuizGuy66]

forgot to take my Mattel Horse Race Analyzer out of my storage unit today

-QG

 

[mquinnjr]

Not a horse handicapper, but from research went Justify to Win, Audible to Place, Hofburg and My Boy Jack to Show. Superfecta key with Justify and Audible, Hofburg, and My Boy Jack. 

Whatever, it's Derby Day and

 

[QuizGuy66]

Yeah I think my plan is gonna be the usual $1 tribox with 4 horse and $1 tribox with 4 horses and then $5 ATB on somebody.

-QG

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Man, I know it will change radically tomorrow, but it appears no one likes Noble Indy. I plan to toss him too, but 51-1 is crazy high. Flameaway sitting at 54-1. 

 

[harryhood]

Man, I know it will change radically tomorrow, but it appears no one likes Noble Indy. I plan to toss him too, but 51-1 is crazy high. Flameaway sitting at 54-1. 

Couple speed horses that may just hang on for a bottom piece 

 

[shadrap]

What I've learned here is you have to toss some horses, actually a lot of horses.   narrow it down to a workable number as in 8 & go from there.  With this you are going to have to throw out some with low odds as without the longshot plays your chance for a decent payday are severely restricted.  just my two cents from reading this thread from cover to cover.  Thanks again gents!

if any major faults with the above please tell me.   Starting to love this horse racing thing.

 

[Judge Smails]

Have some doubles live but not what I wanted. Had 10 boxed with 13 and 14, those 3 in tri box and all in doubles to Audible, Justify, Good Magic, Bolt and Vino. So only doubles live and they don’t pay much. 

If the CD track plays anything like today play only those in the first flight on dirt and closers on turf. Just looked at the charts. Nobody came from off of it on dirt. I think it will be sealed tonight if chance of rain so even harder for closers tomorrow. You can lay a few lengths off it but that’s it. At least for exacta. Closers can still get 3rd/4th. Audible and Good Magic should get dream trips rating off of Justify. Bolt will make a move as well. 

Hate Kent D at that price and the FL Derby runner up will be clawing for underneath at best. Not betting Mendy  if he beats me he beats me  2nd place finisher in UAE Derby did nothing in the Oaks

Good luck all

 

[bcnfinance]

Great stuff all. Appreciate it every year. Here’s where I think I’m landing for $100...

$5 Across the Board on 7 

$2 Exacta Box on 5,7,9,11 

$2 Trifecta 5,7 over 5,7,9,11 over 5,7,9,11,2,6,18 

 

[Quint]

Have some doubles live but not what I wanted. Had 10 boxed with 13 and 14, those 3 in tri box and all in doubles to Audible, Justify, Good Magic, Bolt and Vino. So only doubles live and they don’t pay much. 

If the CD track plays anything like today play only those in the first flight on dirt and closers on turf. Just looked at the charts. Nobody came from off of it on dirt. I think it will be sealed tonight if chance of rain so even harder for closers tomorrow. You can lay a few lengths off it but that’s it. At least for exacta. Closers can still get 3rd/4th. Audible and Good Magic should get dream trips rating off of Justify. Bolt will make a move as well. 

Hate Kent D at that price and the FL Derby runner up will be clawing for underneath at best. Not betting Mendy  if he beats me he beats me  2nd place finisher in UAE Derby did nothing in the Oaks

Good luck all

Re:  track conditions - Looking at PPs, it seems Justify, Enticed, Flameaway, MBJ, FF, and Combatant have some experience w wet conditions, and all hit the board in those trips. 

Converional wisdom says we throw Combatant and FF due to post position. Any thoughts w the others if it gets muddy? 

 

[otb_lifer]

HAPPY DERBY DAY 

gettin' an early start here, lotta crunching to do ... more to come during the day as we see how track is playing, weather, etc

couple thoughts of note:

speaking to @Quint's point re: OFF TRACK possibilities

... if you already love the favorite, then off track should put you on Justy even more: second career start, and booted home in :35.3 - watching Smiff in the post race chat is evidence enough that he knows he's piloting a beast out there ... check it.

MBJ in one of my top five rated prep runs of the season - came outta nowhere to skim that rail in the Southwest (a la Mine That Bird in '09 Derby, announcer (Staufer) didn't even notice the inside move 'til he was in the clear) -  Combatant up in that mutha as well, but, man, did MBJ romp home.  still don't see him with a chance to win today, but very live underneath, regardless of conditions.  tri-super filler.

FF in the worst ranked prep, slogging home in the Jerome - sure, he showed a ton of balls bagging that stretch duel ... but they sure as #### aren't going in :50.2 pace today.

Flamey/Enticed will both be forwardly placed today, with the former a decent bet to hang around much longer in adverse conditions - biggest heart in the game atm ... the latter is a stone miler.  would take some insane bouncing from at least 8-10 others to get him up today.

Top 5 Prep Performances, imo:

1. Audible - Holy Bull (cruised, then unleashed that kick home - comfortably. we could very well see this kinda pace today - and, hello Free Drop)

2. Good Magic - BC Juvey (two year old champ, with authority! today will be his third off the bench since - that is Chad's sweet spot.  also notice the horrible trip for Bolty, who ran a huge one to get third).

3. Bolt d'Oro - San Felipe (after a four month sit, and against McKinzie, who was second in futures at that point).

4. My Boy Jack - Southwest  (as alluded to above, perhaps my favorite move of the season, courtesy of Kent D)

5. dead heat with - Mendelssohn - UAE Derby or is it DAR-by? (because 18 lengths, even on a souped up surface vs. tomato cans, is still 18 lengths)  and Justify - S.A. Derby (won for fun).

going through the thread this morning, shouts to @Evilgrin 72 and @wikkidpissah who have been wif me the whole way since New Year's Day  ...    now, but  later, fellas  

 

[otb_lifer]

 Not betting Mendy  if he beats me he beats me  2nd place finisher in UAE Derby did nothing in the Oaks       

Rayya had a bad break from the gate, but really never lifted a hoof afterwards, cue was in the rack pretty much at the 1/2 ... i mean, it's one thing to be second, but she was close to 20 behind in the UAE D - her Oaks was not flattering to Mendy in any way at all.  agree strongly with wikkid's take on the post draw as per his prospects ... if he drew closer to the early speed i'd be much more inclined to see him winning this.

 

[JShare87]

OTB, need you to lay that winning ticket on us. I have to start presenting my wife with some kind of data that going to the track every Saturday is good for our family. TIA

 

[otb_lifer]

I had a 20 dollar tri 14/3,7/10. I should’ve listen to OTB with the 5, I would’ve been 3,600 richer. 

she ran her ### off, thought she had MG in the stretch ... would've been alive to some huge numbers today

 

[otb_lifer]

OTB, need you to lay that winning ticket on us. I have to start presenting my wife with some kind of data that going to the track every Saturday is good for our family. TIA

gonna be awhile, got my daughter's track meet, then entertaining a dozen or so of her friends for her annual Derby Day Tea Party (starts at 1) ... im'ma be holding off 'til i get a look at the track, and see wtf the weather has in store.  

still hanging on Audible key, with "must uses" being Justy/GM/Bolty/Vino/Hof/MBJ

likely definite tosses being PF/FF/Enticed/LS/NI/Bravazo/IR ... Flamey on the bubble - i just can't quit that lil' Canucks motor, especially if we get some off track conditions.

MM/Mendy are gonna take some time to hash out ... bubble for now - but at the least, one is gettin' tossed 

 

[CGRdrJoe]

.

 

[JShare87]

gonna be awhile, got my daughter's track meet, then entertaining a dozen or so of her friends for her annual Derby Day Tea Party (starts at 1) ... im'ma be holding off 'til i get a look at the track, and see wtf the weather has in store.  

still hanging on Audible key, with "must uses" being Justy/GM/Bolty/Vino/Hof/MBJ

likely definite tosses being PF/FF/Enticed/LS/NI/Bravazo/IR ... Flamey on the bubble - i just can't quit that lil' Canucks motor, especially if we get some off track conditions.

MM/Mendy are gonna take some time to hash out ... bubble for now - but at the least, one is gettin' tossed 

I keep watching Justify’s races, I don’t see how this horse loses if he has no mishaps. I get that it’s a 20 horse field, but I’ll take 3 to 1 all day with this horse.