Shane Vereen vs. Stevan Ridley (6 Viewers)

[Sabertooth]

I don't remember what was discussed previsouly, but as far as I can make it,Addai (if he makes the final roster cut) will be used primarily as a blocker.Woodhead would be used as a change of pace guy on some passing situations and more gadget type plays.Vereen saw the lion's share of work in OTAs practicing with the first team.Ridley got some reps with the first team at OTAs but apparently not as many as Vereen did.Beyond that, it's anyone's guess what the Pats will do in the regular season. I personally think they go pedal to the metal passing the football, but again that's more of a hunch than anything else.

Nice Update. Thanks

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

I don't remember what was discussed previsouly, but as far as I can make it,Addai (if he makes the final roster cut) will be used primarily as a blocker.Woodhead would be used as a change of pace guy on some passing situations and more gadget type plays.Vereen saw the lion's share of work in OTAs practicing with the first team.Ridley got some reps with the first team at OTAs but apparently not as many as Vereen did.Beyond that, it's anyone's guess what the Pats will do in the regular season. I personally think they go pedal to the metal passing the football, but again that's more of a hunch than anything else.

I agree 100%, but as you know that doesn't mean to the exclusion of all run production.their run game has produced pretty well the last few years, and a hot passing game just leads to more shots at the endzone.

 

[David Yudkin]

I don't remember what was discussed previsouly, but as far as I can make it,Addai (if he makes the final roster cut) will be used primarily as a blocker.Woodhead would be used as a change of pace guy on some passing situations and more gadget type plays.Vereen saw the lion's share of work in OTAs practicing with the first team.Ridley got some reps with the first team at OTAs but apparently not as many as Vereen did.Beyond that, it's anyone's guess what the Pats will do in the regular season. I personally think they go pedal to the metal passing the football, but again that's more of a hunch than anything else.

I agree 100%, but as you know that doesn't mean to the exclusion of all run production.their run game has produced pretty well the last few years, and a hot passing game just leads to more shots at the endzone.

I agree to that, too, but some folks in other threads have suggested that the Pats will pound the ball all year long and go back to a 50/50 run/pass ratio (or even more rushes than passes). I posted the other day just how many TDs the runnings backs have scored in the 10 years with Brady at QB (I think it as in MOPs' top RB questions thread).

 

[swirvenirvin]

Thanks I have them right around as last year.

437 attemtps split up as follows for right now just to get something down

Ridley 181

Vereen 91

Woodhead 63

Addai 49

:dunno:

 

[socrates]

Thanks I have them right around as last year.437 attemtps split up as follows for right now just to get something downRidley 181Vereen 91Woodhead 63Addai 49 :dunno:

Looks about right, IMO The opportunity is there, however, for Vereen to emerge ahead of Ridley. I like Vereen's talent and heart, but I worry his size will limit him.

 

[ChainsawU]

Thanks I have them right around as last year.437 attemtps split up as follows for right now just to get something downRidley 181Vereen 91Woodhead 63Addai 49 :dunno:

Looks about right, IMO The opportunity is there, however, for Vereen to emerge ahead of Ridley. I like Vereen's talent and heart, but I worry his size will limit him.

What specifically about Shane Vereen's size do you believe will limit him?

 

[cvnpoka]

Thanks I have them right around as last year.437 attemtps split up as follows for right now just to get something downRidley 181Vereen 91Woodhead 63Addai 49 :dunno:

dont think addai gets that many unless injuries hit.

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

Ridley was studly at the end of the regular season but then really cost me fantasy playoffs when BB went away from him.

Im not sure which speaks more and to what; that BB lost confidence in Ridley for the playoffs or that they let BGE walk. I guess thats why we have camp and pre-season.

 

[King of the Jungle]

Like many this is a situation I will most likely stay away from. Even if one back gets the hot hand one game it is impossible to know what the next week will bring. I think Vereen and Ridley are both capable of being productive but will not partake in trying to guess what BB is going to do from week to week.

 

[Itchy Amos]

I remember when they were both drafted how all of the local pundits categorized Vereen as the speedster and Ridley as the powerful, goal-line type. Who knows what the Patriots expected, but I know that the local media was completely surprised by Ridley's ability to perform in space. He was far more elusive than what everyone (in the media) expected. Ridley was easily their most explosive runner last year. Maybe Vereen will come in and surpass him, but my money is on Ridley getting the short yardage carries (and the 10-15 TDs that come along with it) as well as ample work between the 20's. I think Ridley easily proves to be the most valuable back to own in NE.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

Like many this is a situation I will most likely stay away from. Even if one back gets the hot hand one game it is impossible to know what the next week will bring. I think Vereen and Ridley are both capable of being productive but will not partake in trying to guess what BB is going to do from week to week.

but this is where you can lock down the pats backfield for 2 mid to late picks

 

[King of the Jungle]

Like many this is a situation I will most likely stay away from. Even if one back gets the hot hand one game it is impossible to know what the next week will bring. I think Vereen and Ridley are both capable of being productive but will not partake in trying to guess what BB is going to do from week to week.

but this is where you can lock down the pats backfield for 2 mid to late picks

It will present decent value per-say, however I try to avoid the frustration of guessing what BB is going to do from week to week. I also think that offense is going to be doing a lot of air traveling this year and relying on production from any of the RBs on any given week is going to be too risky.

 

[David Yudkin]

Like many this is a situation I will most likely stay away from. Even if one back gets the hot hand one game it is impossible to know what the next week will bring. I think Vereen and Ridley are both capable of being productive but will not partake in trying to guess what BB is going to do from week to week.

but this is where you can lock down the pats backfield for 2 mid to late picks

It will present decent value per-say, however I try to avoid the frustration of guessing what BB is going to do from week to week. I also think that offense is going to be doing a lot of air traveling this year and relying on production from any of the RBs on any given week is going to be too risky.

Here's what people seem to be missing.1) The Pats running backs are available at a discount. I recently grabbed Ridley and Vereen after already having other backs, so as depth guys or potential flex or bye week options they are great.2) While everyone points to NE as the textbook definition of RBBC, it really hasn't been that way by design. Many years, guys got dinged up and the primary ball carrier changed due to injury.3) While it's unlikely that one back will consistently get 20+ carries (and in 2012 how many RBs really gets that big a workload anyway), but I suspect that one or the other will get a consistent 10-15 carries each week. 4) Woodhead and Addai are very unlikely to see much of a workload unless Ridley and Vereen get banged up.5) If Ridley OR Vereen got hurt, the other guy IMO clearly becomes a fantasy starter.6) Whoever becomes the main red zone option will have value from a lot of TD scoring opportunities, even if he isn't getting 20 carries (or even the majority of carries) in New England.7) As others have mentioned, the point in which these guys are getting drafted makes them come with not a lot of risk. For example, I would much rather take Ridley (ADP 86) or Vereen (ADP 142) or both than BJGE (ADP 58). The Bengals have already said they plan on using a RBBC, yet everyone keeps comparing Green Ellis to Benson and suggest he will get a huge workload (which he's never even had before).8) The NE running game when taken as a whole has been in the top third of the league pretty much every year. The RB production dropped off some last year with all the passing they did, but they should see a lot more pass coverage than run coverage and should again put up decent numbers (with a lot of TDs).Overall, I think people can do far worse than a Ridely / Vereen pairing, and most fantasy owners won't have to worry about who to start of the two as their teams will already have their starting RBs by then anyway. I think these two would make decent potential flex plays or RB depth . . . or might allow a team to trade a better RB for help at other fantasy spots in need.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Ridley and Vereen are currently going as a RB4 and a RB5, and whoever gets most of the goalline carries is pretty likely to be a good RB3.

I do think that they are both over-valued in dynasty; I don't see NE moving away from their successful multiway RBBC any time soon, so I don't see either guy as a future fantasy every week starter, or at least as a starter you'd feel good about over a multi-year window, assuming a typical number of weekly RB starters (20-30).

 

[King of the Jungle]

Like many this is a situation I will most likely stay away from. Even if one back gets the hot hand one game it is impossible to know what the next week will bring. I think Vereen and Ridley are both capable of being productive but will not partake in trying to guess what BB is going to do from week to week.

but this is where you can lock down the pats backfield for 2 mid to late picks

It will present decent value per-say, however I try to avoid the frustration of guessing what BB is going to do from week to week. I also think that offense is going to be doing a lot of air traveling this year and relying on production from any of the RBs on any given week is going to be too risky.

Here's what people seem to be missing.1) The Pats running backs are available at a discount. I recently grabbed Ridley and Vereen after already having other backs, so as depth guys or potential flex or bye week options they are great.

I agree that they are a value in my post.

2) While everyone points to NE as the textbook definition of RBBC, it really hasn't been that way by design. Many years, guys got dinged up and the primary ball carrier changed due to injury.

I don't incorporate predicting injuries into my rankings.

3) While it's unlikely that one back will consistently get 20+ carries (and in 2012 how many RBs really gets that big a workload anyway), but I suspect that one or the other will get a consistent 10-15 carries each week.

Possibly, however we are all trying to make this guess. And the chances of guessing right thin out over the course of a 16 game season.

4) Woodhead and Addai are very unlikely to see much of a workload unless Ridley and Vereen get banged up.

There is no proof to this. Both Woodhead and Addai have much more NFL experience and I would not assume they do not become a factor in what I believe to be a pass-first offense (primarily to pass protection)

5) If Ridley OR Vereen got hurt, the other guy IMO clearly becomes a fantasy starter.

See number 4.

6) Whoever becomes the main red zone option will have value from a lot of TD scoring opportunities, even if he isn't getting 20 carries (or even the majority of carries) in New England.

I agree with this statement as long as someone becomes that red-zone option. I would be willing to bet that we do not see a NE RB surpass 8 TDs this season.

7) As others have mentioned, the point in which these guys are getting drafted makes them come with not a lot of risk. For example, I would much rather take Ridley (ADP 86) or Vereen (ADP 142) or both than BJGE (ADP 58). The Bengals have already said they plan on using a RBBC, yet everyone keeps comparing Green Ellis to Benson and suggest he will get a huge workload (which he's never even had before).

Depends on the league and where they are being drafted (as well as the amount of roster spots).

8) The NE running game when taken as a whole has been in the top third of the league pretty much every year. The RB production dropped off some last year with all the passing they did, but they should see a lot more pass coverage than run coverage and should again put up decent numbers (with a lot of TDs).

Those rushing TDs will need to come from one individual in order make anyone FF relevant.

Overall, I think people can do far worse than a Ridely / Vereen pairing, and most fantasy owners won't have to worry about who to start of the two as their teams will already have their starting RBs by then anyway. I think these two would make decent potential flex plays or RB depth . . . or might allow a team to trade a better RB for help at other fantasy spots in need.

I won't criticize anyone for that strategy as long as it is later in the draft. However there are too many factors that make me want to shy away from the NE backfield this year:* No proven commodities in the top prospects

* Top prospects have minimal track records while their backups have much more experience in NFL offenses

* The offense is built to pass and added more capable weapons for that (Lloyd)

* Pass protection for a passing offense. Again the top prospects have the least experience with protecting the franchise (Brady)



(for some reason none of my comments in DY's post are not in bold - not sure how to fix that)

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

wut?

 

[Borat]

While everyone points to NE as the textbook definition of RBBC, it really hasn't been that way by design.

Yes it has. It's been that way since Corey Dillon left and Maroney faltered.

 

[swirvenirvin]

Thanks I have them right around as last year.437 attemtps split up as follows for right now just to get something downRidley 181Vereen 91Woodhead 63Addai 49 :dunno:

dont think addai gets that many unless injuries hit.

My thought on that was Sammy Morris was old and continued to always get carries

 

[cvnpoka]

Thanks I have them right around as last year.437 attemtps split up as follows for right now just to get something downRidley 181Vereen 91Woodhead 63Addai 49 :dunno:

dont think addai gets that many unless injuries hit.

My thought on that was Sammy Morris was old and continued to always get carries

due to injury and necessity

 

[King of the Jungle]

wut?

I posted "bolded" comments however they do not show up on my computer. Are they bold on your side?

 

[tombonneau]

Just to update this thread, early camp reports have Ridley pretty much locked into starting role. Vereen has not impressed and by all reports is being outplayed by UDFA Brandon Bolden.

At this point, Ridley is the guy to own and IMO Vereen is barely draftable. The only knock on Ridley was end of last year he had some ball security issues but that has been a focal point of camp and in ball security drills he has held the ball high & tight and has yet to fumble.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Just to update this thread, early camp reports have Ridley pretty much locked into starting role. Vereen has not impressed and by all reports is being outplayed by UDFA Brandon Bolden. At this point, Ridley is the guy to own and IMO Vereen is barely draftable. The only knock on Ridley was end of last year he had some ball security issues but that has been a focal point of camp and in ball security drills he has held the ball high & tight and has yet to fumble.

It's not even August yet -- way too early to make a definitive call like this one way or another. Lot of TC and a whole preseason left before this will be decided. Further, recent history suggests that more than one guy will have a meaningful role in the offense.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

FWIW... at least a half dozen (maybe more) media observers have all said the same thing. Ridley > Bolden > Vereen

 

[David Yudkin]

Vereen's stock definitely appears to be slipping. Mike Reiss had it Ridley - Woodhead - Vereen - Bolden with Bolden potentially able to move up the ladder.

 

[tombonneau]

Just to update this thread, early camp reports have Ridley pretty much locked into starting role. Vereen has not impressed and by all reports is being outplayed by UDFA Brandon Bolden. At this point, Ridley is the guy to own and IMO Vereen is barely draftable. The only knock on Ridley was end of last year he had some ball security issues but that has been a focal point of camp and in ball security drills he has held the ball high & tight and has yet to fumble.

It's not even August yet -- way too early to make a definitive call like this one way or another. Lot of TC and a whole preseason left before this will be decided. Further, recent history suggests that more than one guy will have a meaningful role in the offense.

I didn't think I was making any definitive prediction on the season, merely passing along what I've read about camp. If I had to bet, I'd say Ridley is in line for the type of production BJGE had in his top seasons. And as far as if I drafted today, I would take Bolden over Vereen. That could obviously change after a few preseason games if Vereen shines, but I am not posting from the future, I am posting from now, so this is all I have to go on.

 

[zadok]

I thought Ridley was superior to Vereen in the Pats offense after they were drafted, and especially now after Addai's release, I feel a breakout coming for Ridley this season. RB2 at least IMO.

 

[ponchsox]

Ridley is a lock for 1,000/10 in this offense. I'll take that as my flex.

 

[HittinHard]

Ridley is the guy i opted for as i can see him progressing more this year.

 

[finito]

fwiw:

Shane Vereen: Vereen coming on in camp after slow startShane Vereen - RB - NE - Aug. 5 - 10:19 pm etPatriots RB Shane Vereen "appears to be coming around" after a slow start to his second NFL training camp.We've seen similar things on both Comcast SportsNet New England and ESPN Boston. Last year's 56th overall draft pick was spinning his tires behind Stevan Ridley and Danny Woodhead early in camp, but Vereen now appears to be finding his legs. He's a running back to keep an eye on during the preseason.

 

[DawnBTVS]

Worth noting is that Ridley only had 3 catches last year in comparison to 87 carries. He may be the main bellcow RB but I think he'll be more beneficial to non-PPR league owners.

Vereen played in just 2 games last year but did get 8 and 7 carries. In the 7 carry game, he got 1 fewer carry than Woodhead and Ridley combined.

I can see Ridley being the main in between tackles RB but I wouldn't be so quick to write off Vereen as a non-factor (or getting supplanted heavily by Woodhead or even Bolden).

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Worth noting is that Ridley only had 3 catches last year in comparison to 87 carries. He may be the main bellcow RB but I think he'll be more beneficial to non-PPR league owners.Vereen played in just 2 games last year but did get 8 and 7 carries. In the 7 carry game, he got 1 fewer carry than Woodhead and Ridley combined.I can see Ridley being the main in between tackles RB but I wouldn't be so quick to write off Vereen as a non-factor (or getting supplanted heavily by Woodhead or even Bolden).

I won't disagree with anything here, but just to add a couple details, ridley look great catching the ball in last year's preseason, and the pats have reportedly been working on the rb screen like a mo' in camp.I'm not sayin' he catches 50 balls, but I'm not sayin' he catches 20, either.

 

[The Ref]

I have said this in a few threads already. Ridley is going to be the player that everyone looks back at tye end of the year and asks themselves how they didn't see it comIng.I think he gets most of the work. And I think the patriots run the ball as a whole much more this year.

 

[Sabertooth]

I am not ready to give up on these guys just yet. Could both have value?

 

[tombonneau]

fwiw:

Shane Vereen: Vereen coming on in camp after slow startShane Vereen - RB - NE - Aug. 5 - 10:19 pm etPatriots RB Shane Vereen "appears to be coming around" after a slow start to his second NFL training camp.We've seen similar things on both Comcast SportsNet New England and ESPN Boston. Last year's 56th overall draft pick was spinning his tires behind Stevan Ridley and Danny Woodhead early in camp, but Vereen now appears to be finding his legs. He's a running back to keep an eye on during the preseason.

As a Pats fan, this was good to read. Was pretty bummed that Vereen looked pedestrian to kick off camp. Would love for him to ultimately take Woodhead's role as I think he is a more dynamic player and has more roster value than the limited Woodhead, i.e. he could be a 25 carry guy if you need him to be plus can catch & block out of the backfield.Still think Ridley gets the lion's share this year and many teams drafting him as their RB3/4 are going to be thrilled with his solid RB2 production. And if he gets anywhere close to the combo of BJGE's 180 carries and his 87 from last year while staying in the neighborhood of his 5.1 YPC to get 1200 yards to go with what could realistically be 12-14 TDs (18 rushing TDs for Pats last year) you're talking a ceiling of low-end RB1. Obviously those are wishful thinking ceiling stats but as far as a ceiling goes that is realistic. My one caveat would be the Pats OL which has been in significant flux throughout camp. Could make for a rough start to the season.

 

[karmarooster]

I'm guessing Ridley doesn't get BJGE's 187 + a portion of Ridley's own 2011 carries. Part of BJGE's value was that he never fumbled. I would expect slightly fewer carries for Ridley, maybe around 175. And moving up from 87, he won't maintain 5.1 YPC but will probably be in the 4s. 175 x 4.5 puts him at about 800 yards rushing. And if he's supposedly more active in the passing game, probably another 200 yards and 25 receptions. 8-12 TDs.

There's value there, but I don't think he's going to be a 200 carry back, which is how is ADP is trending.

For Vereen, there are some of Ridley's 87 from last year, plus 30 from Faulk and himself. Could easily top 100 carries. And if the Patriots turn to him as a check-down weapon in the passing game, I think his value could bump up against Ridley even assuming 1,000 total yards, 25 receptions, and 8-12 TDs.

Vereen could be looking at 100-125 carries, 50+ receptions (an old Kevin Faulk had 60 a few years back), and could score 5-10 of his own TDs. 125 at 4.8 YPC is 600 yards rushing, plus 50 at 9.5 YPC is almost another 500 yards receiving. I'm not saying Vereen is GOING to have 50 receptions, but it's not that huge of a longshot considering that Faulk had 47 in 2007, and 63 in 2008 with Cassel, and Moreno + Buckhalter combined for 65 in Denver with McDaniels in 2010. PLUS we know that Bill Billichick is a great emulator of other trends in football; you've got to know he's been looking at New Orleans tape of Darren Sproles last year, and seeing what he added to the NO offense. I expect the Patriots to be one of the strongest Pass:Run balance teams in the NFL, so it could be that Ridley and Vereen both establish roles, but aren't that far apart in overall production.

Ridley = Strong flex, RB2 upside

Vereen = Probably flex or bye-week fill-in, but RB2 upside as well, if he carves out a roll in the passing game.

Both clearly have RB1 upside if the other gets hurt.

Given ADP, you can easily take both, but Ridley is creeping - into the 6th round now, vs. Vereen comfortably in the 13th.

 

[tombonneau]

I'm guessing Ridley doesn't get BJGE's 187 + a portion of Ridley's own 2011 carries. Part of BJGE's value was that he never fumbled. I would expect slightly fewer carries for Ridley, maybe around 175. And moving up from 87, he won't maintain 5.1 YPC but will probably be in the 4s. 175 x 4.5 puts him at about 800 yards rushing. And if he's supposedly more active in the passing game, probably another 200 yards and 25 receptions. 8-12 TDs. There's value there, but I don't think he's going to be a 200 carry back, which is how is ADP is trending. For Vereen, there are some of Ridley's 87 from last year, plus 30 from Faulk and himself. Could easily top 100 carries. And if the Patriots turn to him as a check-down weapon in the passing game, I think his value could bump up against Ridley even assuming 1,000 total yards, 25 receptions, and 8-12 TDs. Vereen could be looking at 100-125 carries, 50+ receptions (an old Kevin Faulk had 60 a few years back), and could score 5-10 of his own TDs. 125 at 4.8 YPC is 600 yards rushing, plus 50 at 9.5 YPC is almost another 500 yards receiving. I'm not saying Vereen is GOING to have 50 receptions, but it's not that huge of a longshot considering that Faulk had 47 in 2007, and 63 in 2008 with Cassel, and Moreno + Buckhalter combined for 65 in Denver with McDaniels in 2010. PLUS we know that Bill Billichick is a great emulator of other trends in football; you've got to know he's been looking at New Orleans tape of Darren Sproles last year, and seeing what he added to the NO offense. I expect the Patriots to be one of the strongest Pass:Run balance teams in the NFL, so it could be that Ridley and Vereen both establish roles, but aren't that far apart in overall production. Ridley = Strong flex, RB2 upsideVereen = Probably flex or bye-week fill-in, but RB2 upside as well, if he carves out a roll in the passing game.Both clearly have RB1 upside if the other gets hurt. Given ADP, you can easily take both, but Ridley is creeping - into the 6th round now, vs. Vereen comfortably in the 13th.

I'm using the Pats 2010 run breakdown as my template for how I think the carries will be split. You had BJGE with 55% of the RB carries, then Woody with 23% then 17% going to Morris & Taylor. I'm using this year as it was the last time they had a clear cut RB1 without trying to work in young guys or having a guy miss time with injuries. I think Woody keeps a similar percentage and believe they'll want Ridley getting that 50-55% of main carries with Vereen picking up that 15-17%. Recent history shows that BB oftem does not have more than three active backson game day which should hold given the number of WRs and TEs they'll want active. A further wrinkle is the FB spot. If they keep a FB they could very well go into games with Ridley, Woodhead and a FB active with Vereen not even guaranteed an active spot on the roster game plan dependent.

 

[KellysHeroes]

who's better at pass blocking?

 

[pheagles]

and how much, if any, will Hernandez take carries away like he was used in the playoffs?

 

[Matt Bitonti]

i know this is a running back but is anyone else worried about the Pats OL?

Brian Waters is an expected no-show. Logan Mankins and Seb Vollmer are on active PUP (both coming back from offseason surgery).

Right now in camp the line is:

LT Nate Solder - LG Donald Thomas (14 career starts) - C Dan Koppen - RG Dan Connoly - RT Marcus Cannon (0 career starts)

Granted, the Pats expect everyone to get back and show up and everything to be peachy. My question is, what if that doesn't happen?

I am going to update the OL rankings today, keep all the starters listed but bumping a half point off for cohesion. Even if everyone shows up for week 1 it's doubtful that these 5 will get any reps as a unit. And it's always possible that Waters retires, and a setback keeps mankins and vollmer sidelined. Mankins is especially one to watch, he's arguably the best guard in the conference.

 

[tombonneau]

i know this is a running back but is anyone else worried about the Pats OL? Brian Waters is an expected no-show. Logan Mankins and Seb Vollmer are on active PUP (both coming back from offseason surgery). Right now in camp the line is: LT Nate Solder - LG Donald Thomas (14 career starts) - C Dan Koppen - RG Dan Connoly - RT Marcus Cannon (0 career starts)Granted, the Pats expect everyone to get back and show up and everything to be peachy. My question is, what if that doesn't happen? I am going to update the OL rankings today, keep all the starters listed but bumping a half point off for cohesion. Even if everyone shows up for week 1 it's doubtful that these 5 will get any reps as a unit. And it's always possible that Waters retires, and a setback keeps mankins and vollmer sidelined. Mankins is especially one to watch, he's arguably the best guard in the conference.

As a Pat's fan, it's a legit concern. I think I mentioned it in a previous post, but I expect the OL play to be subpar (by Pats standards) for September. As you said, even if they line up the projected starting unit of L-to-R Solder-Mankins-Koppen-Cannon-Vollmer this unit will have not played together for very long.

 

[karmarooster]

I'm guessing Ridley doesn't get BJGE's 187 + a portion of Ridley's own 2011 carries. Part of BJGE's value was that he never fumbled. I would expect slightly fewer carries for Ridley, maybe around 175. And moving up from 87, he won't maintain 5.1 YPC but will probably be in the 4s. 175 x 4.5 puts him at about 800 yards rushing. And if he's supposedly more active in the passing game, probably another 200 yards and 25 receptions. 8-12 TDs. There's value there, but I don't think he's going to be a 200 carry back, which is how is ADP is trending. For Vereen, there are some of Ridley's 87 from last year, plus 30 from Faulk and himself. Could easily top 100 carries. And if the Patriots turn to him as a check-down weapon in the passing game, I think his value could bump up against Ridley even assuming 1,000 total yards, 25 receptions, and 8-12 TDs. Vereen could be looking at 100-125 carries, 50+ receptions (an old Kevin Faulk had 60 a few years back), and could score 5-10 of his own TDs. 125 at 4.8 YPC is 600 yards rushing, plus 50 at 9.5 YPC is almost another 500 yards receiving. I'm not saying Vereen is GOING to have 50 receptions, but it's not that huge of a longshot considering that Faulk had 47 in 2007, and 63 in 2008 with Cassel, and Moreno + Buckhalter combined for 65 in Denver with McDaniels in 2010. PLUS we know that Bill Billichick is a great emulator of other trends in football; you've got to know he's been looking at New Orleans tape of Darren Sproles last year, and seeing what he added to the NO offense. I expect the Patriots to be one of the strongest Pass:Run balance teams in the NFL, so it could be that Ridley and Vereen both establish roles, but aren't that far apart in overall production. Ridley = Strong flex, RB2 upsideVereen = Probably flex or bye-week fill-in, but RB2 upside as well, if he carves out a roll in the passing game.Both clearly have RB1 upside if the other gets hurt. Given ADP, you can easily take both, but Ridley is creeping - into the 6th round now, vs. Vereen comfortably in the 13th.

I'm using the Pats 2010 run breakdown as my template for how I think the carries will be split. You had BJGE with 55% of the RB carries, then Woody with 23% then 17% going to Morris & Taylor. I'm using this year as it was the last time they had a clear cut RB1 without trying to work in young guys or having a guy miss time with injuries. I think Woody keeps a similar percentage and believe they'll want Ridley getting that 50-55% of main carries with Vereen picking up that 15-17%. Recent history shows that BB oftem does not have more than three active backson game day which should hold given the number of WRs and TEs they'll want active. A further wrinkle is the FB spot. If they keep a FB they could very well go into games with Ridley, Woodhead and a FB active with Vereen not even guaranteed an active spot on the roster game plan dependent.

I agree with you on Woodhead having a similar role as he's had the past two years, so there's his 15-20%. But I think Vereen is an upgrade to most everything that Woodhead does... so it's possible that Woodhead is more of a depth player, whereas Vereen is used as the primary RB in passing sets.I also don't think it makes much sense to put Ridley in the 50-55% as a "clear cut RB1" that BJGE was... he's clearly not that guy (yet). And you said you want to use 2010 as a year when they had a clear cut RB1 WITHOUT trying to work in young guys.... that's the exact opposite of what they have this year. They lack a clear RB1, and they have two young guys who look very promising. Second, Vereen and the combo of Morris/Taylor have nothing in common - those were all purpose, power RBs at the end of their careers, whereas Vereen is more of an open field weapon who is very young. All in all, I don't think this comparison makes much sense, other than pointing out that 50-55% of the carries is probably Ridley's ceiling.

 

[Joe Bryant]

i know this is a running back but is anyone else worried about the Pats OL? Brian Waters is an expected no-show. Logan Mankins and Seb Vollmer are on active PUP (both coming back from offseason surgery). Right now in camp the line is: LT Nate Solder - LG Donald Thomas (14 career starts) - C Dan Koppen - RG Dan Connoly - RT Marcus Cannon (0 career starts)Granted, the Pats expect everyone to get back and show up and everything to be peachy. My question is, what if that doesn't happen? I am going to update the OL rankings today, keep all the starters listed but bumping a half point off for cohesion. Even if everyone shows up for week 1 it's doubtful that these 5 will get any reps as a unit. And it's always possible that Waters retires, and a setback keeps mankins and vollmer sidelined. Mankins is especially one to watch, he's arguably the best guard in the conference.

My rule of thumb for Offensive Lines: If Matt's worried, I'm worried. J

 

[ponchsox]

Brady could be on his #### more and Gronk/Hernandez might be doing more blocking. I still think the offense will be dynamic but the cohesiveness of the offensive line will be something to keep an eye on.

 

[Shutout]

Add another name to the list.

NFL Network's Michael Lombardi issued a "fantasy sleeper alert" for Patriots undrafted rookie RB Brandon Bolden on Inside Training Camp Live.

"From what I'm being told, I think he has an opportunity to be a special running back much like BenJarvus Green-Ellis," said Lombardi, "And I have a feeling he's pushing Stevan Ridley." Lombardi's connection to Bill Belichick leads to plenty of inside scoop, but he also tends to relentlessly hype Patriots backup types. Bolden did garner early-camp praise from beat writers, though we've seen nothing to suggest he's putting heat on Ridley for the lead back role.

 

[David Yudkin]

i know this is a running back but is anyone else worried about the Pats OL? Brian Waters is an expected no-show. Logan Mankins and Seb Vollmer are on active PUP (both coming back from offseason surgery). Right now in camp the line is: LT Nate Solder - LG Donald Thomas (14 career starts) - C Dan Koppen - RG Dan Connoly - RT Marcus Cannon (0 career starts)Granted, the Pats expect everyone to get back and show up and everything to be peachy. My question is, what if that doesn't happen? I am going to update the OL rankings today, keep all the starters listed but bumping a half point off for cohesion. Even if everyone shows up for week 1 it's doubtful that these 5 will get any reps as a unit. And it's always possible that Waters retires, and a setback keeps mankins and vollmer sidelined. Mankins is especially one to watch, he's arguably the best guard in the conference.

I don't think the Pats are looking at any of these guys as major issues . . . either now or down the road. I agree, if the worst case scenario hits all of them then it will be a problem . . . but that would be the case for any team. I would expect all 3 of Waters, Mankins, and Vollmer to be ready for the start of the season. We can get a better read on the Pats OL situation by ehether or not they are scrambling to start bringing in street free agents and signing a bunch of retreads and bodies. They thought Gallery might be worth a depth spot (but he since retired). They also signed Dustin Waldron. I don't know . . . is that a sign of the Pats being in dire straits? Over the years, the Pats have had a lot of OL injuries and the offense didn't seem to miss a beat. I wouldn't say this is much ado about nothing, but I think at this point this is mostly more of a potential concern than a grave one.

 

[ponchsox]

Add another name to the list.

NFL Network's Michael Lombardi issued a "fantasy sleeper alert" for Patriots undrafted rookie RB Brandon Bolden on Inside Training Camp Live.

"From what I'm being told, I think he has an opportunity to be a special running back much like BenJarvus Green-Ellis," said Lombardi, "And I have a feeling he's pushing Stevan Ridley." Lombardi's connection to Bill Belichick leads to plenty of inside scoop, but he also tends to relentlessly hype Patriots backup types. Bolden did garner early-camp praise from beat writers, though we've seen nothing to suggest he's putting heat on Ridley for the lead back role.

Lombardi is now a fantasy guru?

 

[ShaHBucks]

If I buy any of these guys it Woodhead. You can use a last pick pretty much on the most proven commodity of the group. He can catch, pass protect, and run the ball. With Welker and Hernandez having the same roles creating mismatches that probably ate into his playing time last year. 2010 it took him 131 touches to get 900 yards total with 6 TD's. That's darn near 7 yards a touch. I can't think of a scenario where Ridley or Vereen, who I haven't seen much of, can be that productive.

 

[David Yudkin]

If I buy any of these guys it Woodhead. You can use a last pick pretty much on the most proven commodity of the group. He can catch, pass protect, and run the ball. With Welker and Hernandez having the same roles creating mismatches that probably ate into his playing time last year. 2010 it took him 131 touches to get 900 yards total with 6 TD's. That's darn near 7 yards a touch. I can't think of a scenario where Ridley or Vereen, who I haven't seen much of, can be that productive.

After Week 1 last year, Woodhead played in 16 other games with a high of 7 carries. If I recall correctrly, he didn't have more than 10 touches in a game after Week 1 until the SB. Playing in all 19 games last year, his average line was:4.9 carries, 21.7 yards, 0.05 rushing TD, 1.2 receptions, 10.8 receiving yards, and 0.05 receiving TD. Including the regular and post sesons, Woodhead averaged a much more modest 4.75 yards per touch. And let's not forget that he was playing in situations conducive to getting chunks of yardage (3rd and long and passing downs).At this point, he may even be 4th on the depth chart.

 

[DawnBTVS]

Looks like Vereen will be battling with Woodhead (or have an early lead) as the 3rd down/Passing down back.

Vereen has been better this summer. He has typically been the second or third back on the field in running situations, but has gotten a lot of his reps during passing opportunities. Vereen runs good routes for a running back, and he has shown off some nice hands while making a few difficult catches, either by leaping or reaching around a defender.

“Shane is obviously very quick,” said teammate Rob Ninkovich, who can relate to outside linebackers tasked with corralling Vereen. “He’s kind of like that (Danny) Woodhead (type), a shorter, stockier guy who can get in and out of his routes really fast. It’s hard to get your hands on him and affect him because he’s more stout. Obviously, him coming out of the backfield running the wheels and the angles, everything that you need for a quarterback to get out of some trouble, you know he’s going to be able to do that for you.”

Vereen has developed a good rapport with quarterback Tom Brady [stats], who obviously has plenty of targets, but it’s clear that Brady will go in Vereen’s direction with his check-downs. Vereen’s electricity can be an asset in space, particularly when he’s one-on-one with a pursuing tackler.

 

[Shutout]

Add another name to the list.

NFL Network's Michael Lombardi issued a "fantasy sleeper alert" for Patriots undrafted rookie RB Brandon Bolden on Inside Training Camp Live.

"From what I'm being told, I think he has an opportunity to be a special running back much like BenJarvus Green-Ellis," said Lombardi, "And I have a feeling he's pushing Stevan Ridley." Lombardi's connection to Bill Belichick leads to plenty of inside scoop, but he also tends to relentlessly hype Patriots backup types. Bolden did garner early-camp praise from beat writers, though we've seen nothing to suggest he's putting heat on Ridley for the lead back role.

Lombardi is now a fantasy guru?

There is a good deal of conversation about this in the "Who is Brandon Bolden" thread. Different opinions on what it means for a guy like Lombardi to be writing about Bolden. I honestly don't know the connections he has with the organization but a few people are saying its fairly significant.