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Stock Thread (8 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Maybe NXPI or SWKS, although NXPI is close to fully valued.
identikit
Footballguy
Wasn't that GameStop?
McBokonon
Footballguy
And BBBY.
That said, yes, assuming you didn’t invest the proceeds into the crazy crap he promoted.
Wheat Pennies for the
GoBirds
Footballguy
He was on Nvidia when it was in the teens. Of course I didn’t buy any.
He was on Nvidia when it was in the teens. Of course I didn’t buy any.
He does catch a lot of flack for meme stocks and the wheat pennies thing, but i respect he puts himself out there with his calls. Wish i had listened on NVDA too
⚡DEADHEAD⚡
Footballguy
I did listen to him. Bought 500 shares in the low 20s, and that's pre 4-1 split. Sold when it rebounded back to the 20s after a dip.He was on Nvidia when it was in the teens. Of course I didn’t buy any.
It hurts.
⚡DEADHEAD⚡
Footballguy
We've got to be able to identify the beneficiaries of the AI boom. It won't only be NVDA. Maybe it's competition, maybe it's complementary services, maybe it's yet to be identified. Who will be the Oracle to Microsoft, the Dell to Hewlett-Packard, the Sun Microsystems to IBM?
Can Palantir be the software platform that companies rely on to leverage AI? They have a strong hold on government contracts and are moving to the commercial private sector. If they can do in private industry what they've done at the federal level, they will do very well...
Can Palantir be the software platform that companies rely on to leverage AI? They have a strong hold on government contracts and are moving to the commercial private sector. If they can do in private industry what they've done at the federal level, they will do very well...
SFBayDuck
Footballguy
I’ve been thinking about this a bit, too. Who else will benefit that hasn’t already gone parabolic? Thinking software companies like Adobe, SIs like Accenture, data center REITs, that kind of thing.
McBokonon
Footballguy
I hesitate to bring anything growthy up here anymore because how people trade and scale are different and so are risk appetites but...
They're up big recently and today but $CLS is still cheap. Using AI in logistics, growing fast.
The General
Footballguy
I like the data center REIT idea. I'll dabble in some DLR - Digital Realty
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
SFBayDuck
Footballguy
Exactly the kind of thing I've been thinking about, those second-derivative plays discussed in the article that may not have already exploded (haven't gone through them yet).
beef
Footballguy
Oh yeah. I'm about to begin a house addition and ordered a bunch of doors and windows, and wanted to raise some cash for excavation and concrete so I didn't need to add those to the HELOC. This chip rally pretty much covered me.
D-Day
Footballguy
I think I will remember PANW yesterday more than NVDA today. Oooof
Good choice. I took out a HELOC early in 2023 at a rate that honestly is crazy compared to my mortgage. It was for a lot on a lake for the semi-retirement/permanent retirement. I had enough to pay for it in my brokerage account but I would have had to sell a lot of stock. A year later and that stock has basically doubled so by not selling, the appreciation will pay for the lot. I would have been dumb to sell low but still, feels much better a year later.
Capella
Footballguy
Awesome
GreenNGold
Footballguy
Rate cuts are looking less and less likely this year, I wouldn't be surprised to see them hold steady for much longer at this point. I think anyone (most of the market) anticipating more than 1-2 possible cuts in the second half of the year has unrealistic expectations.
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McBokonon
Footballguy
That’s what I’m thinking and I don’t mind. I like having those levers when we ACTUALLY need them.
beef
Footballguy
I hear you. I refi'd near rock bottom so seeing these rates and payments now make me want to cry. The intro HELOC rate I'm looking at is 5.49 for 6 months, then goes to 8.5%??? Think prime is still around there. F that. Haven't signed yet so the clock on the 6 months hasn't started. Think I can stall until April-May for that.I'm only cashing out huge gains which I should be taking profits on anyway. Actually a great excuse to take gains and not get too greedy and miss out.
The rate cuts have absolutely nothing to do with the stock market. And while I thought 6-7 cuts were a bit much, I fully anticipate cuts to be coming starting in the summer and continuing through year end.
I think you'll start seeing the cracks in the economy sooner rather than later. Consumer debt is creeping higher. Higher mortgage rates are going to shut off the valve for cheap refi money. When consumer spending starts dropping (which it has already as seen in weaker January numbers), the economy will start slowing, which will lead to more layoffs (there are already plenty of layoffs planned at larger companies nationwide), and when the unemployment starts spiking that will be an issue.
Oh, and let's not forget one thing, whether you want to discuss it or not, there is something coming up in about 7-8 months and immense pressure will be put on the Fed to keep the economy humming (read lower rates).
I think you'll start seeing the cracks in the economy sooner rather than later. Consumer debt is creeping higher. Higher mortgage rates are going to shut off the valve for cheap refi money. When consumer spending starts dropping (which it has already as seen in weaker January numbers), the economy will start slowing, which will lead to more layoffs (there are already plenty of layoffs planned at larger companies nationwide), and when the unemployment starts spiking that will be an issue.
Oh, and let's not forget one thing, whether you want to discuss it or not, there is something coming up in about 7-8 months and immense pressure will be put on the Fed to keep the economy humming (read lower rates).
General Malaise
Footballguy
I thought cheap refi money was shut off a long time ago? Like, well over a year now, no?
Very much so, but still some folks out there tapping equity via Heloc's and refi's. I doubt it's many though in the grand scheme of things. I am friends with some local lenders here in Colorado, and one was telling me about a crazy refi she did the other day. Lady had no idea how much credit card debt she had, thought it was 65K, turns out it was 125K!!! I actually trust this lender to not do transactions that would hurt a customer, but in this case it saved the lady thousands a month in credit card interest so it made sense.
Hopefully the lady doesn't go back out and charge those cards right back up, but who knows...
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Oh, hello SQ
General Malaise
Footballguy
Jesus!
Pigskin Fanatic
Footballguy
speaking of refis, have the UWMC holders here sold out of it yet? not sure what the end game is for that stock, it grew quite a bit since it was mentioned way back when.
Capella
Footballguy
Reminds me of when we refi’d to get down to 2.25 a few years ago. Guy came out and said some lady the day before just did a cash out refi and took out a 125k. She casually mentioned it was all going into crypto, which went into a straight plummet about 6 weeks later. Ah well.
JFC. I know that’s likely not the most credit card debt ever but that’s like $2400 in interest charges every month.
ChiefD
Footballguy
I’m staying in it. The dividends are good and I think it still has room to run. I’m gonna hold this for awhile.
culdeus
Footballguy
Refis were north of 6 two years ago.
The General
Footballguy
It doesn't matter but WalMart stock splits on shares held by EOD 3:1
I have never owned it but seems as good as any long term hold.
I have never owned it but seems as good as any long term hold.
In regard to refi money....
1-People haven't had to tap into home equity as the economy has held strong, so far.
2-One of the intended consequences of raising rates is falling home prices as consumers will not be able to afford as much. This hasn't really happened (yet) due to supply shortages. However, if/when home prices fall, people will have less equity in their homes to tap into (two variables of refi money is both rates and equity in home)
3-Raising rates haven't hit the ARM market just yet as most of these reset in 3 or 5 years, but they will hit. They've also hit the HELOC market - all of this is going to put less available money in consumers pockets which is going to drive spending down.
All of this of course is my opinion, but these are some of the reasons I believe the Fed will be lowering rates a few times this year. I don't see a rosy economic picture coming up as I see higher unemployment and lower consumer spending which isn't quite a death spiral but isn't great.
Also heard yesterday that NVDA's market cap is greater than the GDP of Canada. That's a lotta chips.
1-People haven't had to tap into home equity as the economy has held strong, so far.
2-One of the intended consequences of raising rates is falling home prices as consumers will not be able to afford as much. This hasn't really happened (yet) due to supply shortages. However, if/when home prices fall, people will have less equity in their homes to tap into (two variables of refi money is both rates and equity in home)
3-Raising rates haven't hit the ARM market just yet as most of these reset in 3 or 5 years, but they will hit. They've also hit the HELOC market - all of this is going to put less available money in consumers pockets which is going to drive spending down.
All of this of course is my opinion, but these are some of the reasons I believe the Fed will be lowering rates a few times this year. I don't see a rosy economic picture coming up as I see higher unemployment and lower consumer spending which isn't quite a death spiral but isn't great.
Also heard yesterday that NVDA's market cap is greater than the GDP of Canada. That's a lotta chips.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
MELI seems like a screaming buy here. Bottom line miss only due to (what they're calling 1-time) tax hits and basically every analyst reiterating buys/overweights and raising price targets based on the results.
⚡DEADHEAD⚡
Footballguy
I decided to revisit my relationship with Yahoo and have to say they've really improved their investment tracking. I'm still in the midst of building out my portfolios to track - holdings, things to watch, the Todem list - and the customization is great.
For example, I can enter a transaction - Wells Fargo in early 2021 for example - and I get full detail on that transaction, including what my quarterly dividend returns were. I didn't appreciate the true value of the dividends, nor did i track how WFC changed dividends over time. Now I can see that very simply in a click or two.
Coupling this with the retirement thread and I'm feeling better prepared to really start thinking about what retirement planning looks like. Just got two kids to put through college, that's all......sigh.
McBokonon
Footballguy
I added.
JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
I'll give it a shot.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
I did, too. It's a l-t hold for me, but I'm a little overexposed atm. Might have to flip some portion of this new lot if it turns around relatively quickly.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
These are the tin people? What's the story?
General Malaise
Footballguy
These are the tin people? What's the story?
Story is the same. Just odd to see a million shares purchased in 4 minutes time on a Friday.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Ah. Thought maybe Elon found a use for tin or they decided to remake the Wizard of Oz or some ####.
These are the tin people? What's the story?
Story is the same. Just odd to see a million shares purchased in 4 minutes time on a Friday.
SFBayDuck
Footballguy
Still holding for now. I bought it at $8.83 a share, but with dividends reinvested I'm pretty close to being even. @Chadstroma is our local expert on the company.
Chadstroma
Footballguy
I am holding. I think collecting the dividend while you wait for the next refi boom is not a bad strategy. I do still think that the market doesn't see the potential of the company as evidenced by it's replacing of Rocket as the largest mortgage lender in the country. It sees it as just another mortgage company while it's strength is more akin to a tech company that happens to do mortgages. (I would describe Rocket as a marketing company that happens to do mortgages... very badly).
Chadstroma
Footballguy
The vast majority of the refi's that you have now are divorce settlements.
But yes, you do have situations like the one you described where refinancing is the only way to address consumer debt even when it means getting a higher mortgage rate. The blended rate (what the overall rate is taking into account the mortgage + consumer debt) is often going to be much lower than the difference of a higher mortgage rate. Of course, that all depends on the specifics of the numbers.
The first thing to do, if you are not a scum bag, is to see what the options are for tapping into equity behind the 1st mortgage. Sometimes this is not possible for various reasons such as credit score is too low (high utilization on the credit cards), DTI is too high for the equity to work, LTV isn't enough, etc. Also, unless you are working with a broker, the options of doing an equity are very limited. I don't do a lot of equity lines/loans because for a vanilla situation, I tell people to go do it at a CU or small bank and they will get a better deal but I have the ability to get things done CU's and banks won't do so I can fill in the needs there. A good., experienced broker that is looking out for you can help guide through the options.
That all to say, there are always refi's but the number of refi's these days are few and far between.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
I bought more than double my existing position in UWMC when it was around 4, so it has worked out pretty well. Might trim some, but the dividends are nice. Interested to see how long mortgage rates can really stay this high.
