Mario Kart
Footballguy
What is the t-distribution on the validity of your proposed statistic? What percentage validity is your 90%?
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Subscriber Contest to be Unveiled by Wednesday Morning (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter David Dodds
- Start date
Sunday is for sweating results 
dbc925
Footballguy
I feel that my individual roster is flaccid, yet tepid. It smells faintly of a combination of Ben-Gay and a medium grade pinot grigio. While at first glance, it appears to be no more than an amalgamation of letters forming names, a closer inspection reveals that each consonant is actually made of individual pixels, while the vowels are composed of a slightly overchilled black cherry jello.
It enjoys poetry, long walks on the beach, puppy breath and the sound of a cricket with restless leg syndrome outside its bedroom window.
Turnoffs are negativity, bad breath and yeast infections.
JustinHawkins
Footballguy
So predictions for cutoff?
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Organized Chaos
Footballguy
Cutoff at 11PM was at 122.45
I'd guess we end up somewhere near low 130's after the game tomorrow.
pizzatyme
Footballguy
Another solid week and moving on. Getting decent production everywhere. Need a bunch of Gronk and Graham owners to fall by the wayside.
As for strategery, cheap QBs, get Julius Thomas and Kenbrell Thompkins. Add in suspended WRs since they'd be back prior to major cut weeks.
Here's to the final 9000!
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
Okay Monday Night Breakdown. Note - these totals include staff entries.
I think I got everybody covered. I left off Bradshaw and Dwayne Allen since they are done.
19 players owned by my count - let me know if I missed anyone.
V Brown 2366
Hilton 1959
Luck 1792
Richardson 1496
Vinatieri 1032
Gates 972
Woodhead 682
Wayne 585
Colts DST 559
Heyward-Bey 505
Floyd 326
Chargers DST 325
Mathews 284
Fleener 264
K Allen 194
Rivers 159 (amazing given his modest price of $11)
Ballard 100
R Brown 90
Novak 71
Average of about 1.53 players per team.
So there you go.
-QG
I think I got everybody covered. I left off Bradshaw and Dwayne Allen since they are done.
19 players owned by my count - let me know if I missed anyone.
V Brown 2366
Hilton 1959
Luck 1792
Richardson 1496
Vinatieri 1032
Gates 972
Woodhead 682
Wayne 585
Colts DST 559
Heyward-Bey 505
Floyd 326
Chargers DST 325
Mathews 284
Fleener 264
K Allen 194
Rivers 159 (amazing given his modest price of $11)
Ballard 100
R Brown 90
Novak 71
Average of about 1.53 players per team.
So there you go.
-QG
Warrior
Footballguy
Seems extremely low in a week without many BYEs. I would have guessed 160+. How certain are you?
rabidsheep
Footballguy
I couldn't disagree with you any more. If anything, I wish MORE people posted in this thread, even if it was about their individual rosters. I find it fascinating seeing what choices people made and how their teams are performing.
While I seem to agree with you that more information/strategy is interesting, as long as it pertains in any way to the contest I enjoy reading each post and it's not like there's 500 people posting in here every day (though honestly that would be nice).
Discussing results and sweating elimination is what makes this contest great imho. The chances of any of us hitting the money is extremely small, so in reality the discussion and group participation is about all most of us are going to get out of this. Keep in mind that some of us spend weeks going over different scenarios and projections before picking our teams. That's a lot of effort to just sit and watch the scores each week. It's a lot of fun for me to come here and commiserate with people that have bad weeks or cheer along with those that get help from an unexpected spot on their roster (Hello Knowshon!)
If you don't like it, there's certainly nothing wrong with that (though I pity you). But coming in here and pissing on our fun just because it's not your preference seems like kind of a jerk move to me.
At the end of the day we're both entitled to our opinions, I just hope that nobody that was participating in this thread or thinking about participating is put off by your little rant. The more the merrier I say! Post your roster! Tell me all about how you were screwed by injuries or your incredible plan to load up on cheap injured players paid off!
For me, the interesting factoid this week is that I topped 180 but neither Adrian Peterson or Calvin Johnson counted for me. Not sure if I should be happy that the rest of my roster produced or concerned that those two aren't giving me the production I paid for when setting up my roster..... Time will tell I suppose.
Anyhow, I hope you made it through the week, and even though I don't really care for the content of your posts, at least you're participating and that to me is what makes this contest so great.
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Saint
Footballguy
As OC runs the live scorer engine, I would assume he is relatively certain. Scoring seemed to be in low in general, so the number sounds about right.
Warrior
Footballguy
Great, I was worried with my 155...thought I was done for. Fingers crossed. TY Hilton (-13.5) to go.
rabidsheep
Footballguy
Another solid week and moving on. Getting decent production everywhere. Need a bunch of Gronk and Graham owners to fall by the wayside.
As for strategery, cheap QBs, get Julius Thomas and Kenbrell Thompkins. Add in suspended WRs since they'd be back prior to major cut weeks.
Here's to the final 9000!
I think you're exactly right. Most of the powerhouse players including Peyton, AD, Calvin etc. had down weeks and we had two teams on bye. Barring some superstar performances tomorrow night it looks like a pretty low cut.
rabidsheep
Footballguy
If it makes you feel any better I made some literal last minute changes to my roster (picked up Moreno and Boldin which were great decisions) and ended up with Vick and Russel. That wouldn't be bad if they didn't share a bye week :(jah77 said:
Not an early bye either, so even if I make it through my week 9 bye minefield week 12 with no QB means I never had a chance to make some noise toward the end of this thing.
The Man With No Name
Footballguy
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
Noted at the top that I ignored Dwayne Allen and Bradshaw b/c they are toasted.
I usually go through the team' season stats when I look for who is playing Monday since the querier doesn't show the NFL team of each guy. So basically I have to goof to miss someone or they are an obscure dude with no stats.
-QG
I usually go through the team' season stats when I look for who is playing Monday since the querier doesn't show the NFL team of each guy. So basically I have to goof to miss someone or they are an obscure dude with no stats.
-QG
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
In tribute to WildGeneral, here's my team. Pretty pleased so far despite losing Julio.
Andrew Luck
Tony Romo
Arian Foster
Reggie Bush
Giovani Bernard
Ben Tate
Joique Bell
LeGarrette Blount
Julio Jones
Demaryius Thomas
DeSean Jackson
Michael Floyd
Darrius Heyward-Bey
Kenbrell Thompkins
Fred Davis
Brent Celek
Anthony Fasano
Julius Thomas
Adam Vinatieri
Steve Hauschka
Shaun Suisham
Baltimore Ravens
New York Giants
Andrew Luck
Tony Romo
Arian Foster
Reggie Bush
Giovani Bernard
Ben Tate
Joique Bell
LeGarrette Blount
Julio Jones
Demaryius Thomas
DeSean Jackson
Michael Floyd
Darrius Heyward-Bey
Kenbrell Thompkins
Fred Davis
Brent Celek
Anthony Fasano
Julius Thomas
Adam Vinatieri
Steve Hauschka
Shaun Suisham
Baltimore Ravens
New York Giants
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
What will the cutoff be the last week of the contest regular season? Commence statistical analysis...
apalmer
Footballguy
Wow, didn't see this one coming--my team's been cruising around the 200 pt. level every week and with only Gonzo and Hartline on byes, this didn't seem like a real dangerous week. But, I'm sitting at 120 with only TRich and Brown (both -8 and 8.6) to go. I'm going to need huge games from both to avoid the Turk.
Organized Chaos
Footballguy
Yeah, at some point today I am going to check and make sure there are no typo's in my script (number of cutoff teams incorrect or something)... But so far, my live scoring site usually is about 1 1/2 points higher than what the cutoff ends up being.
At 2 AM, I do one final stats update and re-run the cut just to account for any possible technical issues throughout the day with the stats and it's sitting at 125.15 going into the game tonight..
Deranged Hermit
Not cool & Pissed
171.1 with Luck (-0) and Wayne (-17) left to play.
This will be Ridley's first week counting for me. Also, if Wayne gets better than 17, it will be the first week Forte does not count. Oddly enough, if Wayne does not top 17, all four of my RB's will count towards my final score.
My biggest concern now is indy's bye week. Luck and Vick are my only two QBs, so I may well not have a QB that week.
This will be Ridley's first week counting for me. Also, if Wayne gets better than 17, it will be the first week Forte does not count. Oddly enough, if Wayne does not top 17, all four of my RB's will count towards my final score.
My biggest concern now is indy's bye week. Luck and Vick are my only two QBs, so I may well not have a QB that week.
Spin
Footballguy
If I survive this week, it's because Vernon, 42 points. single-handedly willed me to survive. Sitting at 125.2 with Wayne (-7.2) going tonight.
My super trio of Spiller / Rice / Wilson is causing serious drag.
With my QBs of Vick/Brees, and RBs of Spiller/Rice/Wilson/Pierce, I don't see how I can survive the next two weeks anyhow.
At the beginning I wasn't sweating week 8 bye at all, figured Spiller/Wilson would be plenty. Woops.
My super trio of Spiller / Rice / Wilson is causing serious drag.
With my QBs of Vick/Brees, and RBs of Spiller/Rice/Wilson/Pierce, I don't see how I can survive the next two weeks anyhow.
At the beginning I wasn't sweating week 8 bye at all, figured Spiller/Wilson would be plenty. Woops.
for me.
pocketducks
Footballguy
Next week back to my normal roster posting and musing as how a roster that took me hours upon hours to contemplate and finally select will go up in smoke within minutes.
But for one week I will elaborate a little...
But for one week I will elaborate a little...
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pocketducks
Footballguy
Well I can't comment on statistics mostly because I don't have the time or access to the full database of players but I can discuss a little more my strategy as to why I chose certain players that I did. A lot of these strategies are not new but I like to keep track of my team to see how these strategies play out.WildGeneral said:
Moving on to week 7 after a 171. With a big games from Keenan Allen, Cam Newton and Reggie Bush. And a Forbath sighting. Welcome to the club.
So far 24 out of 29 have played (82.8%). (Went with a big roster realizing my mid size to small roster team of studs fizzle out with injures or down weeks. So this is to monitor the percentage of players I selected count for me during the contest).
Newton (3/6) Vick (3/6) Weeden (0/6)
(Went with 3 QBs this year over 2. The last couple of years I was eliminated each time with down weeks from my 2 QBs. I am monitoring how often my 3rd QB gets used. So far none).
Bush (5/6) D. Williams (2/6) Lacy (3/6) Helu (1/6) J. Bell (3/6) Redman (0/6) Polk (1/6) (Went with PPR RBs that I saw had value).
Mi. Floyd (3/6) Hopkins (1/6) G. Tate (2/6) Hartline (3/6) Patterson (0/6) Wheaton (0/6) Kerley (1/6) K. Allen (3/6) Thompkins (3/6) J. Hunter (0/6)
(No stud WRs this year went with an aimed shot gun approach to selecting WRs this year with big play capability and monitoring how many score for me).
Graham (5/6) D. Allen (0/6) Eifert (1/6) J. Thomas (5/6)
Zuerlein (3/6) Forbath (1/6) Gano (2/6)
Browns (1/6) Ravens (5/6)
Flex: RB 3, WR 4, TE 5
(Monitoring from which position does my team get it's two flex scorers. I will use the information to shape my team roster next year).
Players out for the year: D. Allen ($9/$250)
(Monitoring my general strategy to not pick players who will get injured in the future. My crystal ball is usually not so good with this strategy).
Players passed Bye week 10/29 (34.5%)
(This year I made a concerted effort to select players with early Bye weeks. I wanted about a third of my team to be down with Byes after the first 2 Bye weeks. So far so good).
PocketSnowmen
Finally I would like to endorse OC's real time scoring if you want to know the weekly projected cut line. http://ffltools.com/fbg35k/ His predicted cut line is about 1-2 points higher than the actual cut line. I like being able to look at the cutoff line and the real time scoring of my team on my phone using his simple but effective mobile website. Which is why I have no problem donating or buy his app. End Plug.
A good guess to what the final cutoff will be is: OC's cutoff right before the Sunday night game + 20 to 35 points. Or OC's cutoff after the Sunday night game before MNF + 10 to 15 points. My guess is (OC's cutoff = 125.15 + 10 to 15 pts) = Cut line ~ 135-140.
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gandalas
Footballguy
Ugh. 162.45 with Gates/Brown/Matthews still to go. Thank god for the low cutoff this week.
Brady had an OK game for me, but I need Vick back and starting by week 10, or I won't have a QB that week.
Ridley and Lacy gave me decent production at the RB position for once...DeSean and Gordon helped to salvage horrid weeks at my WR position by Dez, Amendola, and Givens.
Suisham had a great week with 16.9 points at the PK position...also helps make up for my whopping 6 point max from my 3 defenses.
Onto week 7!
Brady had an OK game for me, but I need Vick back and starting by week 10, or I won't have a QB that week.
Ridley and Lacy gave me decent production at the RB position for once...DeSean and Gordon helped to salvage horrid weeks at my WR position by Dez, Amendola, and Givens.
Suisham had a great week with 16.9 points at the PK position...also helps make up for my whopping 6 point max from my 3 defenses.
Onto week 7!
gandalas
Footballguy
Also for help with scoring totals, if anyone is interested in my spreadsheet I use (takes about 5 minutes with the box scores to input stats every Monday morning), PM me with your email address and I will send you a copy of mine.
Pretty self-explanatory. Only real attention needed is for PK with the decimal scoring this year. I have one column where you put the # of field goals from 1-30 yards, and it multiplies that number by 3 points. I then have 3 more columns to list FGs made of 31+ yards, so if there is more than 3 of those, you will have to manually edit the total for the kicker that week. For instance this week I have Suisham who had 4 FGs over 30 yards, so I put his 32 harder into the 0-30 column and just manually added .2 points to his total.
Pretty self-explanatory. Only real attention needed is for PK with the decimal scoring this year. I have one column where you put the # of field goals from 1-30 yards, and it multiplies that number by 3 points. I then have 3 more columns to list FGs made of 31+ yards, so if there is more than 3 of those, you will have to manually edit the total for the kicker that week. For instance this week I have Suisham who had 4 FGs over 30 yards, so I put his 32 harder into the 0-30 column and just manually added .2 points to his total.
dagman
Footballguy
After making it through relatively comfortably last week with 8 0s on my roster last week, I felt fairly confident this week getting Peterson, Walsh, and Rudolph back from their byes, but here I am sweating out another week at 132.25 with Luck (-21.05) and Hiton (-8.3) still to go. Perhaps I'll get another 31 from Hilton this week and ease on through to week 7, but If he doesn't get at least 17 this week to put me over 140, I think I'm in big trouble mister.
Steel Dillo
Footballguy
I'm done at around 136.
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Bamac
Footballguy
Thank you, Justin Blackmon. Sitting at 152.55 with Woodhead (11), Vinatieri (13), and Colts (7) left to play. With low projected cut, feeling OK.
As for your strategy talk, I find that players with preseason injuries or suspensions are typically undervalued in this contest. (Of course, Gronk isn't doing much for me.)
As for your strategy talk, I find that players with preseason injuries or suspensions are typically undervalued in this contest. (Of course, Gronk isn't doing much for me.)
;shrug: Mine uses just two columns for kickers, but requires that you add the total distance for all over 30
HairySasquatch
Footballguy
I think I'm barely going to move on this week....mid 140's and done. But I wish I could just give up my spot to someone with a better shot at winning this thing. It would be the noble thing to do. My team has less than a 1% chance of winning this thing.....my top QB, RB, and my number 1 and 4 WR (out of 5 total) are out....and I don't have much to back them up. I'm slowly starting to think a bigger roster is better. I have been at this for four or five years now and have always been a small roster guy. The injuries and the random bad weeks are killing my team.
Chicago Hooligan
Footballguy
I'm looking to be without a Week 8 QB, so while I expect to move on I refuse to be excited about this for a few more weeks.
smarchit
Footballguy
All in at 138.25 for the week. I'm keeping my fingers crossed that the Turk can't find me and my Jimmy Graham goose egg this week 
. If I do somehow make it through, I'll owe it all to my last minute decision to roster Geno Smith (8.85) over EJ Manuel to cover Matt Ryan's bye in case of Mike Vick injury this week. Although in retrospect, picking a better starting option than Ryan, who finally counted for me last week, may have been wise too.
. If I do somehow make it through, I'll owe it all to my last minute decision to roster Geno Smith (8.85) over EJ Manuel to cover Matt Ryan's bye in case of Mike Vick injury this week. Although in retrospect, picking a better starting option than Ryan, who finally counted for me last week, may have been wise too.
chocula
Footballguy
I agree more strategy threads.... My strategy is to score enough points to not get knocked out of the contest. My other strategy is to trade for better players, but not sure how successful strategy 2 will be. I may have to stick to strategy 1.
I really need Marques Colston to pick it up as a guy at work gave me a hard time about picking him (Monday morning QB), so I want to show him he is wrong instead of me being wrong. haha
I am at 131.65 with A Luck -18.95 and V. Brown -12 to play.
Other score is 157.35 with A Luck -18.95 left.
On a side note, I am 5-0 in one of my leagues and scored a total of 1.5 points between Torrey Smith, Jimmy Graham AND Cecil Shorts. I need P. Rivers to score 26 points tonight to stay perfect.
I also need T. Richardson to score 31 points to win in one of my other leagues.
This week, I benched Cam Newton, Vincent Jackson and AJ Green. If anyone wants any fantasy advice, just ask. Do the opposite of what I tell you and you will do very well.
I really need Marques Colston to pick it up as a guy at work gave me a hard time about picking him (Monday morning QB), so I want to show him he is wrong instead of me being wrong. haha
I am at 131.65 with A Luck -18.95 and V. Brown -12 to play.
Other score is 157.35 with A Luck -18.95 left.
On a side note, I am 5-0 in one of my leagues and scored a total of 1.5 points between Torrey Smith, Jimmy Graham AND Cecil Shorts. I need P. Rivers to score 26 points tonight to stay perfect.
I also need T. Richardson to score 31 points to win in one of my other leagues.
This week, I benched Cam Newton, Vincent Jackson and AJ Green. If anyone wants any fantasy advice, just ask. Do the opposite of what I tell you and you will do very well.
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apalmer
Footballguy
Hey, I've got 3.5 points in the book another 25 and I'm good.Not exactly the first half I'm needing
-QG
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