What am I missing on Andre Johnson? (2 Viewers)

[Sweetness_34]

I will concede AJ put up borderline WR1 numbers in a similarly bad situation last year if you look at the season ending numbers, but if you look deeper he had 6 weeks with receiving yards less than 50

I assume you're similarly downgrading Calvin Johnson, who failed to reach 50 yards in 5 of his 14 games. And Dez Bryant, who also did it 5 times. And Brandon Marshall, who also did it 5 times. And Alshon Jeffery, who also did it 5 times.

It kind of blows my mind that we've been on these boards all these years and people still think that every good player produces top end numbers each and every week. Other than usually a couple of guys each year, pretty much every player puts up a large handful of fantasy duds and gets a large percentage of their points via big games against bad defenses. LaDainian Tomlinson did it. Marshall Faulk did it. Randy Moss did it. Terrell Owens did it. Calvin Johnson does it. Adrian Peterson does it. Everyone does it most years.

A-freaking-men. My other pet peeve are the folks who keep citing the boom or bust players as great draft picks because they end the year as top 25 or whatever. Classic example from last year - TY Hilton .... classic example from years in the past - Desean Jackson or even Chad Johnson....the players that flat out destroy your team 3 weeks in a row and then go off for 30 pts the one week you bench him....good luck trying to predict when those guys go off.....you are destined to be 1-4 thanks to players like that on your roster as every week starters. We play a week to week game.....low std deviation with a solid average is what we are looking for.

 

[nyy45]

I got him in the 11th in a 10 team league. Hes my WR4 or 5. Ill take that all day.

that's insane

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

first tell me why you think it's unlikely

I did. You seem to enjoy making things more difficult then they need to be.

lol oh yeah you did -- I missed that the second time around.

anyway, I'll tell you tomorrow, but it's basically a history of volume, despite the fact it'll probably be a run heavy team.

buffalo smoked the pack at 546 rush att last year, with sea at a distant 2nd with 509 -- but buf also managed to come in 3rd on total plays, so it's not like those things have to be mutually exclusive.

that's kind of an extreme example, and I'm not saying he's a marrone or a kelly, but I'd expect a healthy number of plays just on the guy's history

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Kubiak comes from the Shanahan system where they feed their primary WR constantly all over the field (except near the end zone for some reason), Rod Smith, Santana Moss, Andre Johnson, Pierre Garcon were all target monsters in that offense. O'Brien was the OC for one season in NE during Welker's run of 110+ catches in 4 of 5 seasons so I am not absolutely certain what his philosophy really is.

Aside from AJ, Rod Smith is the only one of those guys that Kubiak himself actually coached and he split his targets pretty evenly first with Ed McCaffrey and then with Ashley Lelie.

 

[Ned Ryerson]

I got him in the 11th in a 10 team league. Hes my WR4 or 5. Ill take that all day.

that's insane

Agreed. If you don't mind telling us rat bast, who were the three WRs taken immediately ahead of AJ?

 

[cvnpoka]

I will concede AJ put up borderline WR1 numbers in a similarly bad situation last year if you look at the season ending numbers, but if you look deeper he had 6 weeks with receiving yards less than 50

I assume you're similarly downgrading Calvin Johnson, who failed to reach 50 yards in 5 of his 14 games. And Dez Bryant, who also did it 5 times. And Brandon Marshall, who also did it 5 times. And Alshon Jeffery, who also did it 5 times.

It kind of blows my mind that we've been on these boards all these years and people still think that every good player produces top end numbers each and every week. Other than usually a couple of guys each year, pretty much every player puts up a large handful of fantasy duds and gets a large percentage of their points via big games against bad defenses. LaDainian Tomlinson did it. Marshall Faulk did it. Randy Moss did it. Terrell Owens did it. Calvin Johnson does it. Adrian Peterson does it. Everyone does it most years.

A-freaking-men. My other pet peeve are the folks who keep citing the boom or bust players as great draft picks because they end the year as top 25 or whatever. Classic example from last year - TY Hilton .... classic example from years in the past - Desean Jackson or even Chad Johnson....the players that flat out destroy your team 3 weeks in a row and then go off for 30 pts the one week you bench him....good luck trying to predict when those guys go off.....you are destined to be 1-4 thanks to players like that on your roster as every week starters. We play a week to week game.....low std deviation with a solid average is what we are looking for.

not sure if it is possible to miss a point as bad as you missed his.

anyway, in general, the better the player and the higher the average points per week, the less often they have duds. regardless, you gotta ask yourself, how many overall points are you willing to sacrifice for consistency?

and does that hypothetical consistent player even exist? you might be surprised. obv no player puts up 15 pts every single week. likewise, no player puts up 240 pts one week, and the rest 0s. nor does anyone put up 30 pts 8 weeks, and 0 for the other 8. and even if the 30 or 0 and consistent 15 guy existed, who would win more games for your team?

 

[cvnpoka]

I got him in the 11th in a 10 team league. Hes my WR4 or 5. Ill take that all day.

that's insane

Agreed. If you don't mind telling us rat bast, who were the three WRs taken immediately ahead of AJ?

more importantly, why didnt you take him in the 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th or 10th?

 

[Second Sight]

I got him in the 11th in a 10 team league. Hes my WR4 or 5. Ill take that all day.

that's insane

Agreed. If you don't mind telling us rat bast, who were the three WRs taken immediately ahead of AJ?

more importantly, why didnt you take him in the 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th or 10th?

It is interesting to me that the Texans, a team that is being buried and overlooked, might contain two players that will make or break a lot of fantasy leagues this year in Andre Johnson and Arian Foster.

Similar to how people let Adrian Peterson slip a few years ago, didn't believe in Victor Cruz, Eli and the Giants when they had their mini-run, didn't think the Chiefs and Dwayne Bowe could have the year they did 3 years or so ago, etc, there are always guys that get written off because the consensus somehow develops a common bias and those players, six weeks into the season, are killing their opponents. For the last 4 years, people have pushed Reggie Wayne into a "flex or WR3 with no upside role" and he has put up amazing numbers and was on pace for another top 12 or so finish last year before the injury. The mindset blocks some owners from finding the true value that makes teams.

If anyone is getting Foster in a 4th or 5th or AJ in a 6th or 11th (ridiculous), you can absolutely guarantee that unless that player gets a significant injury, he is going to kill 75% of his opponents and the players they draft in those similar spots. §

 

[dhockster]

I think the one upside for Andre may be TD's this year. Schaub did not like to throw into tight coverage and was not good at throwing the fade route inside the 20. this hurt AJ's TD production. Fitzpatrick may be better at this and more willing to throw 50/50 balls to Andre figuring he is good enough to come away with the ball.

Andre's 5 TD's came in Case Keenum's first two games last year because Case wasn't afraid to let Andre try and make a play deep. Teams quickly adjusted to that and Keenum was not able to figure out how to be successful without that deep option.

 

[Chaka]

The guy has been one of the most consistent WR's in the NFL.. and fantasy.. forget the TD numbers or the quarterback.. He will get targets no matter what and is always a sure bet, barring injury, for at least 85 rec 1,300 rec yards. He has been my keeper for the last 5 years in a 14 team 2 keeper league and has brought me 2 championships in those years. Unfortunately, we changed the way we do our keepers and draft order so I have to let him go this year but when he is available with my first pic (technically the 3rd round), I will be taking him without hesitation.

I would not be surprised to see him put up 85 & 1,300. I would also not be surprised if he didn't.

Agree that you have to ignore TDs this year but if Kubs were still calling the shots then there is no way he breaks double digits.

 

[JamesTheScot]

In my most recent redraft (1 ppr), Andre went WR23. He ranked 10th last year even with all the issues and lack of TDs. Other than the year he was banged up, he also ranked 6th, 7th, 1st, and 1st in PPR leagues since 2008. Makes you wonder how he would have done with one of the HOF QBs from this generation.

Makes you wonder if they might have been able to afford one had he not renegotiated his contract every other year.

 

[Chaka]

Kubiak comes from the Shanahan system where they feed their primary WR constantly all over the field (except near the end zone for some reason), Rod Smith, Santana Moss, Andre Johnson, Pierre Garcon were all target monsters in that offense. O'Brien was the OC for one season in NE during Welker's run of 110+ catches in 4 of 5 seasons so I am not absolutely certain what his philosophy really is.

Aside from AJ, Rod Smith is the only one of those guys that Kubiak himself actually coached and he split his targets pretty evenly first with Ed McCaffrey and then with Ashley Lelie.

Well Rod split targets more than AJ has with anyone else but in the 73 career games they played together (starting in 1998 the first year they kept the target stat, and only including years with Kubs as the OC) Rod averaged 9.2 targets/game and Ed averaged 6.9 targets/game.

Although I am not sure what that has to do with AJ's performance this season.

 

[VaTerp]

I got him in the 11th in a 10 team league. Hes my WR4 or 5. Ill take that all day.

that's insane

Agreed. If you don't mind telling us rat bast, who were the three WRs taken immediately ahead of AJ?

more importantly, why didnt you take him in the 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th or 10th?

It is interesting to me that the Texans, a team that is being buried and overlooked, might contain two players that will make or break a lot of fantasy leagues this year in Andre Johnson and Arian Foster.

Similar to how people let Adrian Peterson slip a few years ago, didn't believe in Victor Cruz, Eli and the Giants when they had their mini-run, didn't think the Chiefs and Dwayne Bowe could have the year they did 3 years or so ago, etc, there are always guys that get written off because the consensus somehow develops a common bias and those players, six weeks into the season, are killing their opponents. For the last 4 years, people have pushed Reggie Wayne into a "flex or WR3 with no upside role" and he has put up amazing numbers and was on pace for another top 12 or so finish last year before the injury. The mindset blocks some owners from finding the true value that makes teams.

If anyone is getting Foster in a 4th or 5th or AJ in a 6th or 11th (ridiculous), you can absolutely guarantee that unless that player gets a significant injury, he is going to kill 75% of his opponents and the players they draft in those similar spots. §

I think I'm higher on Foster than just about anyone else I've seen and I'm just recently warming up to good ole AJ. I think you are right that they could be the difference in a lot of FF teams seasons this year if they are able to outperform their ADP or relative auction costs. Foster is the bigger risks and comes with a greater price tag so he could break some seasons as well. AJ appears to me to be about as solid/safe a WR pick as you can get at that point in the draft while also offering the upside of his avg career production.

In my most recent redraft (1 ppr), Andre went WR23. He ranked 10th last year even with all the issues and lack of TDs. Other than the year he was banged up, he also ranked 6th, 7th, 1st, and 1st in PPR leagues since 2008. Makes you wonder how he would have done with one of the HOF QBs from this generation.

Makes you wonder if they might have been able to afford one had he not renegotiated his contract every other year.

Huh? If I'm not mistaken AJ has repeatedly restructured his contract to give the Texans more cap flexibility. The latest example being last season to help them extend Cushing.

Either way, its ridiculous to suggest that his contract in any way shape of form has prevented them from getting a franchise QB. They thought they had one in Schaub and he just regressed instead of taking the next step up.

 

[We Tigers]

I was seriously down on him in midsummer when it looked like he and the Texans were going to war with each other, but everything seems to have calmed down now.

I don't think he's being absurdly underdrafted, though. He finished around WR10-11 last year depending on your scoring, and I see him being drafted at WR14 using the aggregate numbers at FantasyPros. Doesn't seem too drastic a slide considering that he's a year older with a new QB and coaching staff.

 

[MattFancy]

I avoided him because:

1. QB situation, Fitzpatrick isn't going to scare anybody. IMO he is an upgrade from Schaub 2013, but that's not saying much.

2. RB situation, will Foster keep up his production?

3. 1 & 2 together makes this team as a whole a scary situation.

4. The fact that AJ made such a big stink about wanting to be traded in the offseason. I saw a interview where he said "I don't like where this team is going," or something to that effect.

1. I don't think the QB situation can be much worse than it was last year

2. Foster was hurt the majority of last season and Johnson still put up numbers with and without Foster

3. Not worried about that

4. Maybe. But I don't see Houston being as bad las year. They had so many injuries and terrible QB play. Their defense should be better and their QB play can't get really be much worse than last year. I'd gladly take Johnson in the 3rd/4th.

 

[JamesTheScot]

I got him in the 11th in a 10 team league. Hes my WR4 or 5. Ill take that all day.

that's insane

Agreed. If you don't mind telling us rat bast, who were the three WRs taken immediately ahead of AJ?

more importantly, why didnt you take him in the 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th or 10th?

It is interesting to me that the Texans, a team that is being buried and overlooked, might contain two players that will make or break a lot of fantasy leagues this year in Andre Johnson and Arian Foster.

Similar to how people let Adrian Peterson slip a few years ago, didn't believe in Victor Cruz, Eli and the Giants when they had their mini-run, didn't think the Chiefs and Dwayne Bowe could have the year they did 3 years or so ago, etc, there are always guys that get written off because the consensus somehow develops a common bias and those players, six weeks into the season, are killing their opponents. For the last 4 years, people have pushed Reggie Wayne into a "flex or WR3 with no upside role" and he has put up amazing numbers and was on pace for another top 12 or so finish last year before the injury. The mindset blocks some owners from finding the true value that makes teams.

If anyone is getting Foster in a 4th or 5th or AJ in a 6th or 11th (ridiculous), you can absolutely guarantee that unless that player gets a significant injury, he is going to kill 75% of his opponents and the players they draft in those similar spots. §

"...somehow develops a common bias..."

Somehow? It's a mystery? You are highlighting the very reason for that bias...unreliability.

Guys get downgraded BECAUSE they are unreliable. The unreliability is why you have to talk about what Bowe did 3 years ago instead of what he did over the last 3.

Sure, you feel like a brainiac for having Eli during a career year. But you feel like a ####### for expecting a repeat the next and end up over-paying for the return on investment because he regressed.

So it's fine to talk about the consensus missing out on value because the consensus lets a guy slide who ends up blowing up. But that's an unrealistic view because those same guys were also over-drafted at various points and under performed. I mean, how much value did you lose during their down years?

I'm not sure where there is legit criticism when you basically admit that half of your posted examples did in fact disappoint in multiple seasons unless you claim to be able to predict which are the up years and which are the down with any precision. And if you can do that any better than the rest of us, you need to have your own pay site.

And Peterson isn't a good example at all. His price was reasonably depressed due to his injury. Anyone claiming they knew he had otherworldly healing powers and thus bought in expecting that ROI is full of crap. I know in my main auction league, he was on everyone's list of sneaky targets. The guy who won him didn't have any special insight, knowledge or strategy, he was just willing to bid $1 more than the next guy and had the benefit of luck paying him a much larger dividend than anyone expected.

 

[JamesTheScot]

I got him in the 11th in a 10 team league. Hes my WR4 or 5. Ill take that all day.

that's insane

Agreed. If you don't mind telling us rat bast, who were the three WRs taken immediately ahead of AJ?

more importantly, why didnt you take him in the 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th or 10th?

It is interesting to me that the Texans, a team that is being buried and overlooked, might contain two players that will make or break a lot of fantasy leagues this year in Andre Johnson and Arian Foster.

Similar to how people let Adrian Peterson slip a few years ago, didn't believe in Victor Cruz, Eli and the Giants when they had their mini-run, didn't think the Chiefs and Dwayne Bowe could have the year they did 3 years or so ago, etc, there are always guys that get written off because the consensus somehow develops a common bias and those players, six weeks into the season, are killing their opponents. For the last 4 years, people have pushed Reggie Wayne into a "flex or WR3 with no upside role" and he has put up amazing numbers and was on pace for another top 12 or so finish last year before the injury. The mindset blocks some owners from finding the true value that makes teams.

If anyone is getting Foster in a 4th or 5th or AJ in a 6th or 11th (ridiculous), you can absolutely guarantee that unless that player gets a significant injury, he is going to kill 75% of his opponents and the players they draft in those similar spots. §

I think I'm higher on Foster than just about anyone else I've seen and I'm just recently warming up to good ole AJ. I think you are right that they could be the difference in a lot of FF teams seasons this year if they are able to outperform their ADP or relative auction costs. Foster is the bigger risks and comes with a greater price tag so he could break some seasons as well. AJ appears to me to be about as solid/safe a WR pick as you can get at that point in the draft while also offering the upside of his avg career production.

In my most recent redraft (1 ppr), Andre went WR23. He ranked 10th last year even with all the issues and lack of TDs. Other than the year he was banged up, he also ranked 6th, 7th, 1st, and 1st in PPR leagues since 2008. Makes you wonder how he would have done with one of the HOF QBs from this generation.

Makes you wonder if they might have been able to afford one had he not renegotiated his contract every other year.

Huh? If I'm not mistaken AJ has repeatedly restructured his contract to give the Texans more cap flexibility. The latest example being last season to help them extend Cushing.

Either way, its ridiculous to suggest that his contract in any way shape of form has prevented them from getting a franchise QB. They thought they had one in Schaub and he just regressed instead of taking the next step up.

Earlier in his career he was notorious for renegotiating.

It was a joke. Sorry that it didn't translate and you were offended.

And the initial quote was "HOF" QB, not "franchise" QB as you stated. Two very different things. Schaub was never considered the former.

 

[TheFootballJesus]

Hoping that this thread fades into obscurity so that he continues to remain a steal.

 

[Pigskin Fanatic]

I will concede AJ put up borderline WR1 numbers in a similarly bad situation last year if you look at the season ending numbers, but if you look deeper he had 6 weeks with receiving yards less than 50

I assume you're similarly downgrading Calvin Johnson, who failed to reach 50 yards in 5 of his 14 games. And Dez Bryant, who also did it 5 times. And Brandon Marshall, who also did it 5 times. And Alshon Jeffery, who also did it 5 times.

It surprises that we've been on these boards all these years and people still think that every good player produces top end numbers each and every week. Other than usually a couple of guys each year, pretty much every player puts up a large handful of fantasy duds and gets a large percentage of their points via big games against bad defenses. LaDainian Tomlinson did it. Marshall Faulk did it. Randy Moss did it. Terrell Owens did it. Calvin Johnson does it. Adrian Peterson does it. Everyone does it most years.

LOL, this is a very poor attempt at whatever your point is. How many of those players are on a team that just went through a overhaul with a QB change? But go ahead, take things out of context and type away. AJ on Chicago Dallas or Detroit will put him right back in the elite category.

 

[Pigskin Fanatic]

It is interesting to me that the Texans, a team that is being buried and overlooked, might contain two players that will make or break a lot of fantasy leagues this year in Andre Johnson and Arian Foster.

very good point.

 

[Spin]

Just took Andre at 4.7 in a 12 man league. Wrs around him went 4.03 Keenan Allen. 4.04 Larry Fitz. 4.06 DJax 4.07 AJ 4.09 VJax 4.10 V Cruz 5.1 Cordarrelle Patterson

Was happy with Andre there, although I almost took Patterson ahead of him but figured he may fall back to me in this league... he didn't

 

[Chaka]

first tell me why you think it's unlikely

I did. You seem to enjoy making things more difficult then they need to be.

lol oh yeah you did -- I missed that the second time around.

anyway, I'll tell you tomorrow, but it's basically a history of volume, despite the fact it'll probably be a run heavy team.

buffalo smoked the pack at 546 rush att last year, with sea at a distant 2nd with 509 -- but buf also managed to come in 3rd on total plays, so it's not like those things have to be mutually exclusive.

that's kind of an extreme example, and I'm not saying he's a marrone or a kelly, but I'd expect a healthy number of plays just on the guy's history

What is his history?

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

first tell me why you think it's unlikely

I did. You seem to enjoy making things more difficult then they need to be.

lol oh yeah you did -- I missed that the second time around.

anyway, I'll tell you tomorrow, but it's basically a history of volume, despite the fact it'll probably be a run heavy team.

buffalo smoked the pack at 546 rush att last year, with sea at a distant 2nd with 509 -- but buf also managed to come in 3rd on total plays, so it's not like those things have to be mutually exclusive.

that's kind of an extreme example, and I'm not saying he's a marrone or a kelly, but I'd expect a healthy number of plays just on the guy's history

more specifically, when you look at what o'brien's been up to the last few years:

pats 2005 + 06 (no o'brien) - even in brady's 'game mgr' days they ranked 8th and 4th in total plays

pats 2007 - enter: o'brien (mcdaniels oc), pats' 1058 plays are narrowly 2nd to the saints 1060

2008 - pats rank first in total plays at 1095

2009 - mcdaniels leaves, o'brien moves up, pats rank 2nd at 1076

2010 - gronk + hernandez drafted, pats actually drop down to 22nd with only 986 total plays

I think this year was mostly attributed to poor defense--- they were last in the league in 3rd down conversion allowed, 2nd worst in plays/drive allowed, 3rd worst in yds/drive allowed, and 4th worst in ToP/drive allowed

it's pretty hard to run plays when the other team's offense is on the field, but if you look at plays/min they actually were right about at the saints mark, with the saints 4th that year at 1067 plays

2011 - pats 2nd at 1082 (saints break 1100 plays)

2012 (penn state) - ran 77.6 plays/game maybe ~20th (?) nationally, houston at 82, oregon at 81.5, texas a+m 79, oklahoma 77

(3 nfl teams break 1100 plays)

2013 (penn state) - ran about 76 plays/game which is maybe ~30th (?) ranked nationally, oregon at 75 plays/game, houston and texas a+m at 73, oklahoma 72

(6 nfl teams around 1100+ plays)

2014 (hou texans) - ??

edit: here's a cool article I came across while gathering my stats

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Kubiak comes from the Shanahan system where they feed their primary WR constantly all over the field (except near the end zone for some reason), Rod Smith, Santana Moss, Andre Johnson, Pierre Garcon were all target monsters in that offense. O'Brien was the OC for one season in NE during Welker's run of 110+ catches in 4 of 5 seasons so I am not absolutely certain what his philosophy really is.

Aside from AJ, Rod Smith is the only one of those guys that Kubiak himself actually coached and he split his targets pretty evenly first with Ed McCaffrey and then with Ashley Lelie.

Well Rod split targets more than AJ has with anyone else but in the 73 career games they played together (starting in 1998 the first year they kept the target stat, and only including years with Kubs as the OC) Rod averaged 9.2 targets/game and Ed averaged 6.9 targets/game.

Although I am not sure what that has to do with AJ's performance this season.

Because you made the point that Kubiak's system goes target heavy after one guy because that's just how the system works, and that's why AJ has been so heavily targeted in Houston. I think it has less to do with the system and more to do with AJ just being that good that he demands those targets, as he still will this year. Contrary to what you implied, Kubiak does not have a history of focusing on one guy with anyone other than AJ.

Also your Smith/Ed targets are misleading because they include an extra year before McCaffrey became a regular starter and was getting slot/backup reps, as well as an extra year at the end after McCaffrey was 35 years old and lost his starting job. When Ed was starting, he split fairly evenly with Smith and before that, Sharpe split with Smith. After that, Lelie split with Smith See the receiving yards by season below...

1997

Smith: 1180

Sharpe: 1107

1998

Smith: 1222

McCaffrey: 1053

1999

Smith: 1020

McCaffrey: 1018

2000

Smith: 1602

McCaffrey: 1317

2001

Smith: 1343

McCaffrey: injured

2002

Smith: 1027

McCaffrey: 903 (34 years old!)

2003

Smith: 845

Sharpe: 770

Lelie: 628

2004

Smith: 1144

Lelie: 1084

2005

Smith: 1105

Lelie: 770

Those are not the numbers of a system that focuses on one receiver at all. That didn't start until AJ came around. It was most likely AJ that demanded those targets, not the system, and AJ is still there.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

as an addendum to my above post, I'd make the more qualitative note that o'brien has repeatedly emphasized his need for a 'smart' qb, which is why he feels fitzmagic is actually a good fit, and the first thing he did when he got there was try to draft his own gronk, which enables him to use graham as a hernandez in 2 te formations, which gives him the versatility to run a lot of different looks with the same personnel.

all of that seems like a guy who wants to be able to diagnose defenses on the fly, without the need for a lot of huddling and substitutions.

 

[bagger]

Fitzpatrick, his displeasure with still being in Houston, his age and his lack of TD production.

yup. There are just too many guys I would rather have at the WR spot over Johnson. There's a ton of risk with him and give how they have looked terrible preseason as well that team is on fringe of imploding again.

 

[tone1oc]

Just did a yahoo mock and drafted him at 5.04.. Just behind Emmanuel Sanders & Mike Wallace

 

[Chaka]

Kubiak comes from the Shanahan system where they feed their primary WR constantly all over the field (except near the end zone for some reason), Rod Smith, Santana Moss, Andre Johnson, Pierre Garcon were all target monsters in that offense. O'Brien was the OC for one season in NE during Welker's run of 110+ catches in 4 of 5 seasons so I am not absolutely certain what his philosophy really is.

Aside from AJ, Rod Smith is the only one of those guys that Kubiak himself actually coached and he split his targets pretty evenly first with Ed McCaffrey and then with Ashley Lelie.

Well Rod split targets more than AJ has with anyone else but in the 73 career games they played together (starting in 1998 the first year they kept the target stat, and only including years with Kubs as the OC) Rod averaged 9.2 targets/game and Ed averaged 6.9 targets/game.

Although I am not sure what that has to do with AJ's performance this season.

Because you made the point that Kubiak's system goes target heavy after one guy because that's just how the system works, and that's why AJ has been so heavily targeted in Houston. I think it has less to do with the system and more to do with AJ just being that good that he demands those targets, as he still will this year. Contrary to what you implied, Kubiak does not have a history of focusing on one guy with anyone other than AJ.

Also your Smith/Ed targets are misleading because they include an extra year before McCaffrey became a regular starter and was getting slot/backup reps, as well as an extra year at the end after McCaffrey was 35 years old and lost his starting job. When Ed was starting, he split fairly evenly with Smith and before that, Sharpe split with Smith. After that, Lelie split with Smith

Those are not the numbers of a system that focuses on one receiver at all. That didn't start until AJ came around. It was most likely AJ that demanded those targets, not the system, and AJ is still there.

Fair enough and I respect your opinion but my target numbers are not misleading at all, there is no target data for 1997 but from 1998-2000, I think we can agree this is their heyday (and Ed got injured week one of 2001) Rod was favored 10 to 8, which is closer but still a clear favorite. And even in Rod's decline Ashley Lelie averaged only 6 targets/game to Rod's 8 (excluding Lelie's rookie year, when he didn't start, but including Rod at age 34 & 35).

Now I agree that Kub's has never had a WR on par as AJ, Rod was good but nowhere close to AJ, and AJ has never had a complement as good as McCaffrey, but the system favors the X (I think it's the X, but whatever). So while I still don't see what it has to do with AJ in 2014 I am definitely buying on Torrey Smith.

 

[Chaka]

And FTR I am only pointing out why people are down on AJ (what the OP asked), I am not saying that I think the reasons are right.

 

[Second Sight]

I got him in the 11th in a 10 team league. Hes my WR4 or 5. Ill take that all day.

that's insane

Agreed. If you don't mind telling us rat bast, who were the three WRs taken immediately ahead of AJ?

more importantly, why didnt you take him in the 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th or 10th?

It is interesting to me that the Texans, a team that is being buried and overlooked, might contain two players that will make or break a lot of fantasy leagues this year in Andre Johnson and Arian Foster.

Similar to how people let Adrian Peterson slip a few years ago, didn't believe in Victor Cruz, Eli and the Giants when they had their mini-run, didn't think the Chiefs and Dwayne Bowe could have the year they did 3 years or so ago, etc, there are always guys that get written off because the consensus somehow develops a common bias and those players, six weeks into the season, are killing their opponents. For the last 4 years, people have pushed Reggie Wayne into a "flex or WR3 with no upside role" and he has put up amazing numbers and was on pace for another top 12 or so finish last year before the injury. The mindset blocks some owners from finding the true value that makes teams.

If anyone is getting Foster in a 4th or 5th or AJ in a 6th or 11th (ridiculous), you can absolutely guarantee that unless that player gets a significant injury, he is going to kill 75% of his opponents and the players they draft in those similar spots. §

"...somehow develops a common bias..."

Somehow? It's a mystery? You are highlighting the very reason for that bias...unreliability.

Guys get downgraded BECAUSE they are unreliable. The unreliability is why you have to talk about what Bowe did 3 years ago instead of what he did over the last 3.

Sure, you feel like a brainiac for having Eli during a career year. But you feel like a ####### for expecting a repeat the next and end up over-paying for the return on investment because he regressed.

So it's fine to talk about the consensus missing out on value because the consensus lets a guy slide who ends up blowing up. But that's an unrealistic view because those same guys were also over-drafted at various points and under performed. I mean, how much value did you lose during their down years?

I'm not sure where there is legit criticism when you basically admit that half of your posted examples did in fact disappoint in multiple seasons unless you claim to be able to predict which are the up years and which are the down with any precision. And if you can do that any better than the rest of us, you need to have your own pay site.

And Peterson isn't a good example at all. His price was reasonably depressed due to his injury. Anyone claiming they knew he had otherworldly healing powers and thus bought in expecting that ROI is full of crap. I know in my main auction league, he was on everyone's list of sneaky targets. The guy who won him didn't have any special insight, knowledge or strategy, he was just willing to bid $1 more than the next guy and had the benefit of luck paying him a much larger dividend than anyone expected.

What exactly has EVER been unreliable about Reggie Wayne? He has been the absolute model of consistency. His ONLY crime to Fantasy footballers is he got boring and predictable and he aged. That's it.

Victor Cruz was never unreliable. He was unknown and that is the difference in the point I made. The point was people make mistakes because they build biases (unproven guys can't do it. Guys that get hurt can't bounce back. Guys over 30 are declining. THESE are the mistakes that win and kill seasons for fantasy footballers. Call it what you will. Think of it as you will but the point is the point: every year, there are people that just accept a consensus notion on players without examining it closely enough to understand what is true and what is not and that is the dividing point for those who strike gold and those that get left behind.

§

 

[Chaka]

first tell me why you think it's unlikely

I did. You seem to enjoy making things more difficult then they need to be.

lol oh yeah you did -- I missed that the second time around.

anyway, I'll tell you tomorrow, but it's basically a history of volume, despite the fact it'll probably be a run heavy team.

buffalo smoked the pack at 546 rush att last year, with sea at a distant 2nd with 509 -- but buf also managed to come in 3rd on total plays, so it's not like those things have to be mutually exclusive.

that's kind of an extreme example, and I'm not saying he's a marrone or a kelly, but I'd expect a healthy number of plays just on the guy's history

more specifically, when you look at what o'brien's been up to the last few years:

pats 2005 + 06 (no o'brien) - even in brady's 'game mgr' days they ranked 8th and 4th in total plays

pats 2007 - enter: o'brien (mcdaniels oc), pats' 1058 plays are narrowly 2nd to the saints 1060

2008 - pats rank first in total plays at 1095

2009 - mcdaniels leaves, o'brien moves up, pats rank 2nd at 1076

2010 - gronk + hernandez drafted, pats actually drop down to 22nd with only 986 total plays

I think this year was mostly attributed to poor defense--- they were last in the league in 3rd down conversion allowed, 2nd worst in plays/drive allowed, 3rd worst in yds/drive allowed, and 4th worst in ToP/drive allowed

it's pretty hard to run plays when the other team's offense is on the field, but if you look at plays/min they actually were right about at the saints mark, with the saints 4th that year at 1067 plays

2011 - pats 2nd at 1082 (saints break 1100 plays)

2012 (penn state) - ran 77.6 plays/game maybe ~20th (?) nationally, houston at 82, oregon at 81.5, texas a+m 79, oklahoma 77

(3 nfl teams break 1100 plays)

2013 (penn state) - ran about 76 plays/game which is maybe ~30th (?) ranked nationally, oregon at 75 plays/game, houston and texas a+m at 73, oklahoma 72

(6 nfl teams around 1100+ plays)

2014 (hou texans) - ??

edit: here's a cool article I came across while gathering my stats

Good info here and reason for optimism, although I don't give O'Brien credit for anything that happened in '07 or '08.

 

[dhockster]

Fitzpatrick, his displeasure with still being in Houston, his age and his lack of TD production.

yup. There are just too many guys I would rather have at the WR spot over Johnson. There's a ton of risk with him and give how they have looked terrible preseason as well that team is on fringe of imploding again.

Did you watch the game against Atlanta? They actually looked pretty good. And remember, Andre, Arian, and Brandon Brooks, their starting guard did not play in that game. I don't think Houston will be great

this year, but I don't see them as being on the fringe of imploding.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

first tell me why you think it's unlikely

I did. You seem to enjoy making things more difficult then they need to be.

lol oh yeah you did -- I missed that the second time around.

anyway, I'll tell you tomorrow, but it's basically a history of volume, despite the fact it'll probably be a run heavy team.

buffalo smoked the pack at 546 rush att last year, with sea at a distant 2nd with 509 -- but buf also managed to come in 3rd on total plays, so it's not like those things have to be mutually exclusive.

that's kind of an extreme example, and I'm not saying he's a marrone or a kelly, but I'd expect a healthy number of plays just on the guy's history

more specifically, when you look at what o'brien's been up to the last few years:

pats 2005 + 06 (no o'brien) - even in brady's 'game mgr' days they ranked 8th and 4th in total plays

pats 2007 - enter: o'brien (mcdaniels oc), pats' 1058 plays are narrowly 2nd to the saints 1060

2008 - pats rank first in total plays at 1095

2009 - mcdaniels leaves, o'brien moves up, pats rank 2nd at 1076

2010 - gronk + hernandez drafted, pats actually drop down to 22nd with only 986 total plays

I think this year was mostly attributed to poor defense--- they were last in the league in 3rd down conversion allowed, 2nd worst in plays/drive allowed, 3rd worst in yds/drive allowed, and 4th worst in ToP/drive allowed

it's pretty hard to run plays when the other team's offense is on the field, but if you look at plays/min they actually were right about at the saints mark, with the saints 4th that year at 1067 plays

2011 - pats 2nd at 1082 (saints break 1100 plays)

2012 (penn state) - ran 77.6 plays/game maybe ~20th (?) nationally, houston at 82, oregon at 81.5, texas a+m 79, oklahoma 77

(3 nfl teams break 1100 plays)

2013 (penn state) - ran about 76 plays/game which is maybe ~30th (?) ranked nationally, oregon at 75 plays/game, houston and texas a+m at 73, oklahoma 72

(6 nfl teams around 1100+ plays)

2014 (hou texans) - ??

edit: here's a cool article I came across while gathering my stats

Good info here and reason for optimism, although I don't give O'Brien credit for anything that happened in '07 or '08.

you're reading more into that than I intended.

I listed some earlier years to establish the environment that o'brien might have learned from, not what he produced

 

[Chaka]

Fitzpatrick, his displeasure with still being in Houston, his age and his lack of TD production.

yup. There are just too many guys I would rather have at the WR spot over Johnson. There's a ton of risk with him and give how they have looked terrible preseason as well that team is on fringe of imploding again.

Did you watch the game against Atlanta? They actually looked pretty good. And remember, Andre, Arian, and Brandon Brooks, their starting guard did not play in that game. I don't think Houston will be great

this year, but I don't see them as being on the fringe of imploding.

I kind of think Houston has a similar vibe to what Kansas City looked like going into last season. Clearly they don't have a Jamaal Charles but there is a lot of talent on this roster and they could bounce back in a big way. I don't think they win 13 games but their schedule looks relatively soft and I think they could surprise some teams this year.

 

[ratbast]

I got him in the 11th in a 10 team league. Hes my WR4 or 5. Ill take that all day.

that's insane

Agreed. If you don't mind telling us rat bast, who were the three WRs taken immediately ahead of AJ?

more importantly, why didnt you take him in the 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th or 10th?

Heads up: 10 team, 5 keeper, non PPR start 2 WR, should have stated all this earlier. I actually feel bad for posting it at all.

 

[lod01]

Touchdowns.

 

[Johnny Rock]

THIS is the year that AJ gets 10 TD's.

 

[Tool]

I can't figure out why he's never caught many TD's. He's a big receiver that's been dominant for stretches. Looking at his stats line it can easily be something like 10 catches 150 yards and 0 Td's.

Anyone have any ideas?

 

[steveski]

I can't figure out why he's never caught many TD's. He's a big receiver that's been dominant for stretches. Looking at his stats line it can easily be something like 10 catches 150 yards and 0 Td's.

Anyone have any ideas?

Bad luck mixed with poor quarterback play would be my guess.

 

[King of the Jungle]

I can't figure out why he's never caught many TD's. He's a big receiver that's been dominant for stretches. Looking at his stats line it can easily be something like 10 catches 150 yards and 0 Td's.

Anyone have any ideas?

Bad luck mixed with poor quarterback play would be my guess.

For the last 11 years?

 

[Milkman]

It seems like a big enough sample but his QB hasn't been great his entire career.

 

[AMT]

I can't figure out why he's never caught many TD's. He's a big receiver that's been dominant for stretches. Looking at his stats line it can easily be something like 10 catches 150 yards and 0 Td's.

Anyone have any ideas?

Bad luck mixed with poor quarterback play would be my guess.

For the last 11 years?

In his prime years he scored TD's

2007 8 t'ds in just 9 games

2008 8 td's

2009 9 td's

2010 8 td's in 13 games

The last few years have been a result of HOU going heavy run in the red zone and QB problems. The system just didn't target him in the red zone. If you look at his skills there's really no reason that he would not be able to catch TD's. I would project like 7 TD's this year.

 

[Tool]

I can't figure out why he's never caught many TD's. He's a big receiver that's been dominant for stretches. Looking at his stats line it can easily be something like 10 catches 150 yards and 0 Td's.

Anyone have any ideas?

Bad luck mixed with poor quarterback play would be my guess.

For the last 11 years?

In his prime years he scored TD's

2007 8 t'ds in just 9 games

2008 8 td's

2009 9 td's

2010 8 td's in 13 games

The last few years have been a result of HOU going heavy run in the red zone and QB problems. The system just didn't target him in the red zone. If you look at his skills there's really no reason that he would not be able to catch TD's. I would project like 7 TD's this year.

Ok but 8 td's is a pretty small # for someone who was a top 3 wr for many years. And until last year Schaub was a pretty good QB. And AJ still managed to get tons of catches and yards.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

I can't figure out why he's never caught many TD's. He's a big receiver that's been dominant for stretches. Looking at his stats line it can easily be something like 10 catches 150 yards and 0 Td's.

Anyone have any ideas?

I'd guess because they went to foster an the te at the line

 

[Eminence]

You're not missing anything, people are stupid. Draft with confidence.

 

[bbuster]

I think a lot of people are concerned about Houston offense stalling this year. Between the QB situation, not knowing clearly about Foster's health, AJ's age and hammy issue, it's all making me(and a lot of people nervous. However, I'm loving the fact that he is looking undervalued at this point. I got him as my #3 WR(PPR) in the middle of the 5th round.

 

[GregR]

I can't figure out why he's never caught many TD's. He's a big receiver that's been dominant for stretches. Looking at his stats line it can easily be something like 10 catches 150 yards and 0 Td's.

Anyone have any ideas?

Bad luck mixed with poor quarterback play would be my guess.

For the last 11 years?

In his prime years he scored TD's

2007 8 t'ds in just 9 games

2008 8 td's

2009 9 td's

2010 8 td's in 13 games

The last few years have been a result of HOU going heavy run in the red zone and QB problems. The system just didn't target him in the red zone. If you look at his skills there's really no reason that he would not be able to catch TD's. I would project like 7 TD's this year.

Ok but 8 td's is a pretty small # for someone who was a top 3 wr for many years. And until last year Schaub was a pretty good QB. And AJ still managed to get tons of catches and yards.

Play calling is a huge part of it. I'm feeling kind of under the weather so not going to put the time into this to get it 100% apples to apples but it's enough to show the gist. Here are red zone stats for AJ, Calvin and Fitzgerald and their teams from 2010 through 2013:

Detroit: 213 red zone rushes, 357 passing plays, 348 targets, Calvin got 83.

Arizona: 197 red zone rushes, 248 passing plays, 243 targets, Fitz got 88.

Houston: 355 red zone rushes, 266 passes, 258 targets, AJ got 46.

So right off the bat, one obvious thing is Houston ran the ball 57% of the time in the red zone, while Detroit ran it 37% and Arizona 44%.

Then the next thing is percentage of targets. AJ missed about 14 games in that time, while Calvin missed just a couple and Fitz none. So prorate AJ's red zone targets up to about 58 or so for missed games. That would give Calvin getting a bit over 24% (ignoring that he should get prorated too, but it's only a few games worth) of red zone targets, Fitz getting 36% and AJ getting 23%. So AJ is actually about on par with Calvin there, but well behind Fitz on the times Houston actually does throw it.

Final thing is that Schaub may be good at running the play action boot, but he doesn't have the arm to hit in stride a receiver who has blown by the secondary. AJ in particular, but other Texans receivers as well, frequently have to stop and wait for the ball and end up getting tackled on such plays. Not every play is like that, but quite a few should have gone for touchdowns but Schaub couldn't get the ball there so the defense either caught up in time for the tackle, or even knocked the ball away.

 

[gdub]

We know he has the skills to be a red zone target. Just look at the 2 td's he scored against Arizona in the red zone last year. He can get the ball and has the footwork to stay inbounds. Maybe the new coaching staff will call his number down at the goal line.

 

[Tool]

I can't figure out why he's never caught many TD's. He's a big receiver that's been dominant for stretches. Looking at his stats line it can easily be something like 10 catches 150 yards and 0 Td's.

Anyone have any ideas?

Bad luck mixed with poor quarterback play would be my guess.

For the last 11 years?

In his prime years he scored TD's

2007 8 t'ds in just 9 games

2008 8 td's

2009 9 td's

2010 8 td's in 13 games

The last few years have been a result of HOU going heavy run in the red zone and QB problems. The system just didn't target him in the red zone. If you look at his skills there's really no reason that he would not be able to catch TD's. I would project like 7 TD's this year.

Ok but 8 td's is a pretty small # for someone who was a top 3 wr for many years. And until last year Schaub was a pretty good QB. And AJ still managed to get tons of catches and yards.

Play calling is a huge part of it. I'm feeling kind of under the weather so not going to put the time into this to get it 100% apples to apples but it's enough to show the gist. Here are red zone stats for AJ, Calvin and Fitzgerald and their teams from 2010 through 2013:

Detroit: 213 red zone rushes, 357 passing plays, 348 targets, Calvin got 83.

Arizona: 197 red zone rushes, 248 passing plays, 243 targets, Fitz got 88.

Houston: 355 red zone rushes, 266 passes, 258 targets, AJ got 46.

So right off the bat, one obvious thing is Houston ran the ball 57% of the time in the red zone, while Detroit ran it 37% and Arizona 44%.

Then the next thing is percentage of targets. AJ missed about 14 games in that time, while Calvin missed just a couple and Fitz none. So prorate AJ's red zone targets up to about 58 or so for missed games. That would give Calvin getting a bit over 24% (ignoring that he should get prorated too, but it's only a few games worth) of red zone targets, Fitz getting 36% and AJ getting 23%. So AJ is actually about on par with Calvin there, but well behind Fitz on the times Houston actually does throw it.

Final thing is that Schaub may be good at running the play action boot, but he doesn't have the arm to hit in stride a receiver who has blown by the secondary. AJ in particular, but other Texans receivers as well, frequently have to stop and wait for the ball and end up getting tackled on such plays. Not every play is like that, but quite a few should have gone for touchdowns but Schaub couldn't get the ball there so the defense either caught up in time for the tackle, or even knocked the ball away.

Great info, very interesting. So is it possible/ likely? situation improves with Fitz and the new coaching staff?

 

[GregR]

Possible. I would not be surprised to see more red zone targets. But he also might not get force fed the ball as much elsewhere is a potential downside. Though he is head and shoulders above the rest of the receivers still, so I think he'll get enough but receptions might drop a little. Hopefully tds make up for it.