Lockett 90
This would blow away Lockett's career high of 71 targets, but it probably does not make him particularly valuable for fantasy purposes. Using his career average catch percentage, ypr, and TD percentage, that would project him to 59/785/4 receiving. It seems reasonable that he could improve that TD number, maybe to 6 TDs.
But one thing about Lockett in his career to date is that he has been a boom/bust kind of player, which makes sense given he has operated largely in a deep threat role. He has 4+ receptions in 18 of 49 career games. That scales to just under 6 times every 16 games. In his other 31 career games, he has 54/685/2 receiving... that is 4.3 ppg in PPR. So it has historically been difficult to trust him enough to start him in fantasy, other than in return yardage leagues or really deep lineup leagues.
This is the same thing I was getting at with Abbott.
You are using career averages for a guy whose only fully healthy season was his rookie year.
I have no problem with saying "I think he's unlikely to be fully healthy", because he's had two serious injuries in a 3year career. But I don't think it is reasonable to say, well, he's had 49 career games. 16 were his rookie year when he played behind kearse, one he broke his leg, one he tore his pcl, a bunch more right after he tore his pcl, and 16 more the season after he'd broken his leg in late December, and say they're all the same. They aren't.
What would be fair is to say "look, he had 8 months to recover from a broken leg and I expected more from him last year". That's fair.
But using his career averages as a starting point - or as a negative, because he's never done this or he's historically only done that - is how you miss a breakout.
I know I sound really bullish on him. But i'm not a locket super fan. I own him in one league, he's on waivers in another and I haven't picked him up. This isn't about what I know he will do.
You're giving conservative rankings that are probably a very fair over/under. I don't think that's the right methodology for late round guys. I want to know what he can do and what it would take for that to happen.
Spencer ware can be a league winner this year. He's got decent talent and a great system with a very good team around him. I don't project him to be a stud, though, because it would take an injury to hunt for that to happen.
Jake kumerow could be a stud. It probably won't happen, but it might. Rodgers seems to love him. But maybe Rodgers loves Adams and Cobb and geronimo and mvs and all those guys too. It wouldn't shock anyone for kumerow to get sent to the practice squad. And to be a stud he'd have to pass like 5 guys on the depth chart. Possible? Sure. Likely? I honestly don't know, but i'm not taking him in the first ten or fifteen rounds of a draft.
What would it take for Lockett to br a stud? He'd need the team's trust. He'd probably need an injury to Baldwin. He'd need to be considered the number one or two receiver on the squad. He'd need a stud qb. He'd need health.
Well wait. He's got thir teams trust they just gave him a huge contract extension. Baldwin is already hurting. He appears to be the number one or two receiver on the squad depending on Baldwins health and assuming nobody leap frogs him. He's got the stud qb. And he seems to be healthy.
What could he do? Well, the last 7 games of his rookie year he had 30/404/5. His last 3 games of his sophomore year he had 16 catches 324 total yards and 2 touchdowns. He flashed when healthy and getting the ball.
Do I then project him for a peace of 10 games 728 years and 7 touchdowns? No of course not. But I don't ignore it because he didn't get the ball a ton early in his rookie year, or because he came back from injuries and didn't play at 100% the last two years. Neither is correct.
Instead i consider whether he has stud potential. I don't care about safe projections late. He's on the bench. I only care about whether he can crack my starting lineup. I've seen enough from him to think he can put up a hot streak, or maybe even a full season of fantasy relevance.
Simply stated:
In the games where conditions were good for him to do well, he did well. Conditions are good for him to do well this year.