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WR Antonio Brown, FA (20 Viewers)
- Thread starter Casting Couch
- Start date
robb
Footballguy
kittenmittens
Footballguy
Cooper is 25 and Brown is 31.
Brown is an off the field risk who is currently going crazy.
Their value is similar.
matuski
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I would probably accept that offer.
Brown is nuts but he’s going to be a solid fantasy player.
I imagine he’s not going to give up 50 million dollars over a helmet. I believe he will play & be productive.
TheWinz
Footballguy
I am gonna play devil's advocate and say pass.
Let's compare these two since Amari joined the league...
2015 - Amari - 16 games, 72/1070/6, WR22 AB - 16 games, 136/1834/10, WR1
2016 - Amari - 16 games, 83/1153/5, WR16 AB - 15 games, 106/1284/12, WR1
2017 - Amari - 14 games, 48/680/7, WR35 AB - 14 games, 101/1533/9, WR2
2018 - Amari - 15 games, 75/1005/7, WR18 AB - 15 games, 104/1297/15, WR5
So, that's 61 games for Amari, 60 for AB. Amari has 278/3908/25 - AB has 447/5948/46. Amari's average per game is 4.6 catches for 64.1 yards and .41 TD's AB's average per game is 7.5 catches for 99.1 yards and .77 TD's. As for consistency, AB has scored double digits in PPR scoring 50 times in 60 games (83%). Amari has scored double digits in PPR scoring 33 times in 61 games (54%). And if you think Derek Carr was the problem, think again. In the 9 games with Dak, Amari scored double digits 5 times (56% - eerily close to his average with Derek). And if you say it's because he was learning a new playbook, think again. Three of his four single digit duds came in the last 3 games of the season, after his monster performance. Sure, he won you that week, but then he went AWOL for your entire playoff run.
Do you know which WR has more catches than AB in the last 4 years? No one
Do you know which WR has more TD's than AB in the last 4 years? No one
AB is still the same monster WR, and will be back on the field, tearing it up. Perhaps you are the one getting cold feet?
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
From NFL PR:
The player can’t practice or play in games with equipment that’s not approved. If he doesn’t play or practice he is in breach of his contract and doesn’t get paid. Nfl policy is that Helmets have to be certified by NOSCAE. They don’t certify equipment that’s old than 10 years.
I think this is where the "muddiness" is coming from different report we shared in this thread. We don't know that if older helmets were able to be certified that this one would pass.WIth ten years of advances, and changes made for safety, my guess is it wouldn't.
The player can’t practice or play in games with equipment that’s not approved. If he doesn’t play or practice he is in breach of his contract and doesn’t get paid. Nfl policy is that Helmets have to be certified by NOSCAE. They don’t certify equipment that’s old than 10 years.
I think this is where the "muddiness" is coming from different report we shared in this thread. We don't know that if older helmets were able to be certified that this one would pass.WIth ten years of advances, and changes made for safety, my guess is it wouldn't.
rockaction
Footballguy
I liked both the support Amari/support Brown posts in the thread.
That's actually a really tough trade, but Brown continually blowing up behavior-wise can't be of much comfort to his general managers.
That's actually a really tough trade, but Brown continually blowing up behavior-wise can't be of much comfort to his general managers.
TheWinz
Footballguy
If you knew right now that Brown will wear the new helmet and play week 1, would you still trade him away for Amari?
rockaction
Footballguy
I don't know. I think I would because his behavior pattern has been almost bizarre enough to where you have to legit worry about him being in the lineup for a host of disciplinary/self-imposed reasons. I like Cooper being WR1 in Dallas with Jerruh and the Southern vibe of Dallas (Big Twelve Country, but big college football culture at least) around him at all times. It's really unscientific, but I'd be risk averse in this case.
I mean, Brown might not suit up because he won't suit up, literally.
eta* I think your post is hampered by one main assertion you make. You say, "...and will be back on the field...". We don't know that, really, and he's lucky he wasn't suspended for the balcony incident and other assault incident (were they the same?), an incident that indicates trouble was close to home.
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robb
Footballguy
You are “spot on” with this comment!rockaction said:
Thank you to The Winz for all that wonderful set of stats, I am amazed that you would research it that well!!
In the end, 10 minutes ago, I accepted the trade to get Amari. Two main reasons:
1) in this keeper league, I valued the 6 years age difference I am getting, and
2) I don’t need the ongoing discomfort I feel I would get in keeping AB .. and as in life.. I look for contentment and easy wherever I can (even tho AB’s talent is probably better).
Thank You all for your comments as it truly assisted in making my decision.
TheWinz
Footballguy
His situation is eerily similar to another complete nutcase diva - Terrell Owens. Owens played his entire career until the age of 31 (same as AB) with the same team. And guess how he did his next four years, playing for both Philly and Dallas? 48 more TD's added to his resume.rockaction said:
I am, however, leaving out one stat I found - because it's devastating to my case...
In the 5 games in the past 4 yrs that AB played without Big Ben, he averaged 4.8 catches for 68.2 yards, and no TD's.
rockaction
Footballguy
TO was awesome. I was always a fan until it became apparent that he just nuked locker rooms.
I don't think your stats are too devastating. You have to look at
- Sample size
- Backup quality
rockaction
Footballguy
Ah, you think it's the reality show-type coverage, which is one of your pet peeves. I see, and it's a worthy point.
Don't forget, this guy was getting embroiled in legal controversies about females and assault last year, too. Public ones. Never a good thing.
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matuski
Footballguy
Whatever the reason, somehow pages of this thread and headlines on sports and news programs, are devoted some cokamamie stuff about his helmet preference.
Hard to believe but for my own eyes.
TheWinz
Footballguy
He did fine with Landry Jones in his 2 starts - 13 catches for 230 yards. His Kryptonite was Michael Vick. Three games - 11 catches, 111 yards
As for TO, I remember laughing as he was in his driveway, working out on his weight bench.
Steeler
Footballguy
I was just going to post that those 5 games were with Landry Jones and an over-the-hill M. Vick. Jones is now out of the league and Carr is better than Vick was at that point in his career.
TheWinz
Footballguy
Well, @robb said he made the trade, so for his sake, I hope it works out. But I do believe AB will outscore Amari in FF this year. AB is a lunatic, but he's a hard-working lunatic who will demand the ball, and will get his way. He is a headache for fantasy owners, but he's worth it.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
That would be silly.TheWinz said:
Which is why I think the amari cooper trade is silly.
At the least, I get wanting to part ways with a player you perceive as high risk - that’s fair. But it should have been fair value, like “AB + [mid-range starter, WR2 or RB3]” for AC.
as a straight up deal, and assuming the health of AB’s feet, that’s not a great trade except for the side getting AB. No way the helmet thing causes AB to not earn 50 mil. That just doesn’t happen in any universe.
But the feet could still be a concern. We all stopped talking about them feet as soon as the helmet shenanigans busted loose.
From Mike Silver of NFL.com on Friday -
“Brown, according to witnesses, typically glances at the screens of several tablets and his smart phone during meetings, distracting himself by engaging in activities which include perusing his bank accounts and ‘liking’ photos on Instagram.”
“Brown, according to witnesses, typically glances at the screens of several tablets and his smart phone during meetings, distracting himself by engaging in activities which include perusing his bank accounts and ‘liking’ photos on Instagram.”
kittenmittens
Footballguy
100 percent yes.TheWinz said:
IMO if your dynasty strategy is to take 31 year old Antonio Browns over 25 year old Amari Coopers you are likely on the road to rebuild.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Oh lordy.
Add one more straw to the camel’s back.
still....Antonio Brown is good at football.
Practice? Practice? Talkin about practice man. Practice.
I have a redraft coming up on the 25th. AB is either going to be a terrific value wherever his ADP slides, or he’s going to be a boatanchor to a roster. I’ve got ~2 weeks to figure out which.
Bonus: two Raiders fans in the league.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I don’t understand the “Carr sucks” narrative.
He hasn’t achieved the level of success or consistency many had hoped for, but he’s also had no one to throw to, suffered a broken back (and played through it) and is still very young.
And even with all that, he's put up some decent numbers.
I think this is a weird place to start when considering ABs value.
theres a clear “chicken & the egg” thing here as well. Assuming health (mental / physical) wouldn’t having a top flight WR like Brown along side a sneaky good Tyrell Williams help Carr to not suck?
Carr may have underachieved, but I disagree that he sucks.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
PFR Similar Players Through Year 5: Ken O’Brien, Jameis Winston, Blake Bortles, Jay Cutler, Jason Campbell, Marcus Mariota, David Carr
Except for Year 3 (QB9) he’s been a FF QB 15-20. When he signed his extension two years (5-$125M) they moved him past Andrew Luck as the then highest paid QB. Google “this dude sucks” and his picture comes up.
Except for Year 3 (QB9) he’s been a FF QB 15-20. When he signed his extension two years (5-$125M) they moved him past Andrew Luck as the then highest paid QB. Google “this dude sucks” and his picture comes up.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
compare the talent around the other players on that list. Who was Carr throwing to?
Arguably all of the QBs listed had far better weapons, and more consistency with coaching staff.
Also saying “except for year 3” is a lot like saying “if x player didn’t have that 78 yard TD run he woulda had a crappy day!”
and if my aunt had balls she’d be my uncle. You can’t disregard Year 3 because he played that year & was good.
Jesus you’re making me defend Carr and I hate that.
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BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Year 6 Age 28 breakout coming. Get him while he’s cheap, folks.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Best weapons he’s ever had. Could happen. 28 isn’t exactly ancient.
How old was. Brady when he too over for Bledsoe? At 28 Brady threw 4000+ yards.
zoonation
Footballguy
He's a bottom third QB in the league. He plays scared. He doesn't extend plays. He takes a lot of sacks. He makes bad decisions. Cooper's career looked dead until he got traded to the Cowboys. Then he looks like a stud with a middling QB there.
Antonio likes to get down field. Rothlisberger (and that o-line) could buy him the time to do it. Going to be a lot tougher for him now. Carr just isn't good at extending plays. Brown is going to be a WR2 this year on his pure talent alone. Assuming he plays.
zoonation
Footballguy
What? Cooper and Crabtree for most of it. As good or better than everyone except Winston.
compare the talent around the other players on that list. Who was Carr throwing to?
Arguably all of the QBs listed had far better weapons, and more consistency with coaching staff.
Also saying “except for year 3” is a lot like saying “if x player didn’t have that 78 yard TD run he woulda had a crappy day!”
and if my aunt had balls she’d be my uncle. You can’t disregard Year 3 because he played that year & was good.
Jesus you’re making me defend Carr and I hate that.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
• OL sucked, sacks happen
• Amari Cooper dripped a ton of balls in Oakland, magically found his hands in Dallas. That’s Carr’s fault?
• “plays scared”? I’m not sure how you can quantify that - I’ve seen him play plenty & he didn’t look scared to me.
• Bad decisions happen when playing in a bad offense with a bad OC & with limited weapons who can’t catch the ball
he sure managed to make Cook a stud TE.
Not a Carr fan & not a Raiders fan, but this isn’t a quality evaluation.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
zoonation
Footballguy
It's not? I guess your subjective comments have more purchase than mine.• OL sucked, sacks happen
• Amari Cooper dripped a ton of balls in Oakland, magically found his hands in Dallas. That’s Carr’s fault?
• “plays scared”? I’m not sure how you can quantify that - I’ve seen him play plenty & he didn’t look scared to me.
• Bad decisions happen when playing in a bad offense with a bad OC & with limited weapons who can’t catch the ball
he sure managed to make Cook a stud TE.
Not a Carr fan & not a Raiders fan, but this isn’t a quality evaluation.
I guess I will just have to rely on the empirical evidence then. Which has him as one of the worst Qb's in the league over the last three years.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
My comments weren’t subjective.
Amari Cooper dropped a lot of passes. Isn’t that a fact?
You seem to want to put that on Carr.
Carr was sacked a lot. While some of that is on the QB, much is also about the OL, no?
And you claim he plays “scared”. Are you pals with his psychologist? How are you quantifying that?
God I hate defending Carr. He’s not great. He could be better than he’s been. He’s shown flashes.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
He fades away from pressure before pressure arrives. He checks the ball down at the first sight of heat. If you don’t like the term scared, try tentative. Yes, the Oline was bad last year, 51 sacks. How come he still sucked when they gave up 20 or 24 in a season?
Foosball God
Foos
Disagree on Crabtree he was a solid receiver for them. Amari did have a ton of drops but at this point Carr would be a surprise to turn into a QB that is top third in the league. I don't think he'll be anything more than average.
zoonation
Footballguy
yes, they were. did Cooper drop some passes? sure. Is that meaningful objective criteria to evaluate Carr's overall performance over the last three years? not really. all QB's have receivers who drop passes.
The numbers don't lie. Carr sucks. Antonio is about to figure that out this year.
It's okay that we disagree.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I don’t disagree.
but “average” means he’s better than 1/3 of the QBs or more.
average is different than “sucks”
and adding Tyrell Williams & AB could turn an average QB into an above average QB, right?
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Or Antonio brown will help him “suck” less by going up & getting balls, improving Carr’s completion % & TD totals.
time will tell. I think Carr is slightly better than you give him credit for.
Makes me wonder what year you drafted him & got burned.
Foosball God
Foos
I agree with you that he doesn't suck. His career is at a tipping point though imo. He either becomes a solid, but not spectacular QB or he's done. I don't see a scenario where he takes the next step.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Foosball God
Foos
Cincinnati and Andy Dalton probably isn't the best example of this
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I think of a lot of things when I think of Andy Dalton. “Solid” isn’t what immediately comes to mind, though he’s not a bad comp to Carr.Cincinnati and Andy Dalton probably isn't the best example of this
zoonation
Footballguy
TO was a generational talent. He produced everywhere he went (minor exception of the purgatory year in Buffalo). Didn't matter who was throwing him the ball. He made QB's.
zoonation
Footballguy
never drafted him. i watch a lot of football. BL's assessment is how I see it. Brown should help some, agreed.Or Antonio brown will help him “suck” less by going up & getting balls, improving Carr’s completion % & TD totals.
time will tell. I think Carr is slightly better than you give him credit for.
Makes me wonder what year you drafted him & got burned.
