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sspunisher

Dynasty ROOKIE Draft: 2012 Rankings

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Richardson is a monster. I think he's instantly a top 3 dynasty RB along with Rice and McCoy. He is a better looking prospect than they were entering the league, but he might not end up in such a friendly system. One nice thing about him is that he can catch the ball well out of the backfield, so he has PPR potential that a player like Ingram never really possessed.

Where would Richardson rank value wise compared to multiple other rookies? For example, if you had the #2 and #3 pick (Blackmon and Luck) would you trade them both for Richardson? What about Blackmon and RG3? In one league I have multiple first round picks and I'm curious how much distance there is between Richardson and the other top picks.

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I dont understand how Richardson can be so high with how players like Moreno and Mark Ingram have faired

I dont understand how Luck can be so high with how players like JaMarcus Russel and Matt Leinart have fairedI dont understand how Blackmon can be so high with how players like Roy Williams and Charles Rogers have faired
:goodposting: Haha, i was thinking of the same response.Trent is on a different level as a RB prospect compared to Ingram and Moreno. Their lack of break-out success (so far) has nothing to do with Richardson.As of this second, I think the Big Four are Richardson, Blackmon, Miller, and Luck.

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Richardson is a monster. I think he's instantly a top 3 dynasty RB along with Rice and McCoy. He is a better looking prospect than they were entering the league, but he might not end up in such a friendly system. One nice thing about him is that he can catch the ball well out of the backfield, so he has PPR potential that a player like Ingram never really possessed.

Where would Richardson rank value wise compared to multiple other rookies? For example, if you had the #2 and #3 pick (Blackmon and Luck) would you trade them both for Richardson? What about Blackmon and RG3? In one league I have multiple first round picks and I'm curious how much distance there is between Richardson and the other top picks.
I'm currently thinking 1.01 >>>>> 1.02-1.03 >> 1.04-1.06 >>>>> the rest.Of course draft day will probably alter this slightly. But sadly, If I'm sitting at 1.01, someone would have to offer MORE than fair value to get that pick this year.

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Richardson is a monster. I think he's instantly a top 3 dynasty RB along with Rice and McCoy. He is a better looking prospect than they were entering the league, but he might not end up in such a friendly system. One nice thing about him is that he can catch the ball well out of the backfield, so he has PPR potential that a player like Ingram never really possessed.

Where would Richardson rank value wise compared to multiple other rookies? For example, if you had the #2 and #3 pick (Blackmon and Luck) would you trade them both for Richardson? What about Blackmon and RG3? In one league I have multiple first round picks and I'm curious how much distance there is between Richardson and the other top picks.
Really depends on the format. I'm in one league where passing yards and TDs count the same as rushing/receiving. In that format I'd probably take Luck 1.01. In most formats I would take Richardson though. In a standard PPR league I would probably go...1. Richardson2. Blackmon3. Luck4. FloydI'm pretty high on Blackmon and Floyd, but there's at least some minor bust risk with both of them, whereas I think Richardson has a 0% chance of failing because of talent. The only way he will be a bust is if character drags him down, which doesn't seem likely. I think he's a near lock to become that Edgerrin James/Clinton Portis type of dominant franchise RB who can deliver year in and year out.Blackmon and Floyd have a chance to equal his scoring in ppr leagues, but I think there's a wider range of potential outcomes with them. You could get Hakeem Nicks or merely Braylon Edwards. I would tentatively say that 1.02 and 1.06 represents fair value for Richardson in PPR. I think he is worth more in most non-PPR formats because Blackmon and Floyd will be devalued.

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I dont understand how Richardson can be so high with how players like Moreno and Mark Ingram have faired

What does Moreno have anything to do with Richardson?
I think what he's asking is, "Due to the past few fantasy rookie drafts' clear consensus #1 pick being a RB who has been underwhelming, why is everyone willing to continue the trend with Richardson?"

The past three drafts have typically had these RBs taken #1 overall:

2011 Mark Ingram

2010 Knowshon Moreno

2009 Ryan Matthews

2008 Darren McFadden (or maybe Jonathan Stewart in some drafts)

Even though Richardson is his own player and needs to be judged on his own merits, you still want to consider past successes, failures and trends to help maximize the production you get with your pick in the future. Looking back on it, these players probably should have been the #1 picks:

2011 A.J. Green or Cam Newton (too be fair, it's still too early to judge)

2010 probably still Matthews

2009 LeSean McCoy

2008 Ray Rice

The question is, what do we draw from this? If you have the #1 pick is it better to trade down for for multiple picks (maybe drop to pick 5 and grab two second rounder, or another first rounder in the following year's draft)? Or, have there just been poor draft classes lately from a fantasy perspective and this year is its own animal and Richardson is the clear stud?

To me it seems to be a very deep draft form a fantasy perspective and I'd rather have two picks between #3 - #6 than have the #1 overall, if that were the kind of deal you could swing.

We seem to hear this almost every year - we get a clear top 3 / 4 / 7 / etc. Someone from 5-10 always does well, and someone taken early may bust or is ordinary.

The thing with Richardson (and Moreno and Ingram and McFadden) is if you *do* get that elite, 3-down RB... well, that's the most valuable player to have in FF. The LT's, the ADP's, etc. The once every 5-7 year guy who's not just really good, but hall of fame, never trade him from your fantasy team good. The guy that carries you for years. That's why these RB's always go so high - you hope that the consensus top guy is one of those types of players.

Rookie drafts, while important, are not built solely on #1 or top 5 picks. I have had great luck with players like Jamaal Charles, Arian Foster, Jimmy Graham, Aaron Hernandez, and Mike Wallace.

First round picks and those in top 5 are picks that people would want to be assured of getting top production - which is way too obvious a thing for me to post. If there is strong consensus that Andrew Luck is one of the best qb's to come into the draft in the last 10 years, or that he has a chance to be the next Peyton Manning or post perennial numbers like a Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady, then how can you pass on taking him #1 overall - even in leagues that are not Start 2 qb formats?

ETA: The league I would take Luck #1 overall is PPR and All TD's 6 pts. Rosters are start 1 qb, 2rb, 2wr, 1te, 1 d/st, 1k Frustratingly, there is no flex

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Richardson is a monster. I think he's instantly a top 3 dynasty RB along with Rice and McCoy. He is a better looking prospect than they were entering the league, but he might not end up in such a friendly system. One nice thing about him is that he can catch the ball well out of the backfield, so he has PPR potential that a player like Ingram never really possessed.

Right there with you on Richardson. In a normal league I would spend a 1st in a dynasty draft that includes both veterans and rookies.

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For anyone interested ESPNU will be rebroadcasting many Alabama games in the coming weeks. Too bad I can't find the Ole Miss game as Richardson showed everything you want to see out of a future pro.

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Rookie drafts, while important, are not built solely on #1 or top 5 picks. I have had great luck with players like Jamaal Charles, Arian Foster, Jimmy Graham, Aaron Hernandez, and Mike Wallace. First round picks and those in top 5 are picks that people would want to be assured of getting top production - which is way too obvious a thing for me to post. If there is strong consensus that Andrew Luck is one of the best qb's to come into the draft in the last 10 years, or that he has a chance to be the next Peyton Manning or post perennial numbers like a Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady, then how can you pass on taking him #1 overall - even in leagues that are not Start 2 qb formats? ETA: The league I would take Luck #1 overall is PPR and All TD's 6 pts. Rosters are start 1 qb, 2rb, 2wr, 1te, 1 d/st, 1k Frustratingly, there is no flex

I have no problem admitting I'm ONLY interested in the top half of the first round. There have been a couple deep drafts lately, so there has been talent hanging around in the late first and second. Its just way too much of a crapshoot after the first 5-6 picks. Sure someone in the top 5 can bust, but I'll take that chance over someone in the back half of the round anyday. If I can move up, I will. If not, I look to deal out of the draft. You'd be suprised what some owners will give you for a first round pick.

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For anyone interested ESPNU will be rebroadcasting many Alabama games in the coming weeks. Too bad I can't find the Ole Miss game as Richardson showed everything you want to see out of a future pro.

thank you - i don't usually watch college football so I have something to do (television wise) before the bowl game.

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Richardson is a monster. I think he's instantly a top 3 dynasty RB along with Rice and McCoy. He is a better looking prospect than they were entering the league, but he might not end up in such a friendly system. One nice thing about him is that he can catch the ball well out of the backfield, so he has PPR potential that a player like Ingram never really possessed.

Right there with you on Richardson. In a normal league I would spend a 1st in a dynasty draft that includes both veterans and rookies.
You'll probably have to if you want him. In most startups I've seen, an early to mid 2nd for the consensus top rookie rb is about right. But Richardson has been strongly on the radar for two years now - even when Ingram was hyped, it was always "yea, but wait till Richardson". Unless he bombs from here on out, he'll probably go earlier than Ingram/Matthews/Moreno/McFadden did.

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Yea, that's a safe bet. I would take him first round and I think others would too. I'd be surprised if he dropped out of the first in most leagues. Hype wise he should be closer to Bush/Peterson than Mathews/Moreno.

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I feel like Richardson is the Calvin Johnson of RB prospects. :wub:

He's the best overall RB I've seen since Peterson.That said, I love Blackmon too but there's more risk with him than Richardson.

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Matt Barkley press conference today at 4est. Hearing he is staying but that could be worthless chatter. If he does stay it gets interesting and RG3 becomes even more valuable.

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I think Richardson and Luck will go 1 & 2 in most formats and then it gets a little dicey. I have RGIII ahead of Barkley for the #2 QB because of his legs. He looks to be a more accurate version of Cam. It is too early to think about ranking all of the other RBs. This position all depends where they get drafted. I would still take Richardson ahead of all the other running backs no matter what though.As far as WR goes I would rank them in this order. Blackmon, Floyd, Jeffery & Wright. After that I think it will also depend on what team drafts them.

Only start 2 qb leagues take a QB in the top three 99% of the time, regardless who they are. No doubt the top 3 will be 1) Richardson, 2) Blackmon, 3) Floyd.
I normally agree but I think Luck might be the exception. Also the 4 teams remaining in the playoff in my league have, Brees, Newton, Brady and Rodgers. I think the NFL is moving more and more to a passing league and the top QBs are becoming way more valuable.

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I think Richardson and Luck will go 1 & 2 in most formats and then it gets a little dicey. I have RGIII ahead of Barkley for the #2 QB because of his legs. He looks to be a more accurate version of Cam. It is too early to think about ranking all of the other RBs. This position all depends where they get drafted. I would still take Richardson ahead of all the other running backs no matter what though.As far as WR goes I would rank them in this order. Blackmon, Floyd, Jeffery & Wright. After that I think it will also depend on what team drafts them.

Only start 2 qb leagues take a QB in the top three 99% of the time, regardless who they are. No doubt the top 3 will be 1) Richardson, 2) Blackmon, 3) Floyd.
I normally agree but I think Luck might be the exception. Also the 4 teams remaining in the playoff in my league have, Brees, Newton, Brady and Rodgers. I think the NFL is moving more and more to a passing league and the top QBs are becoming way more valuable.
I don't know that we know this yet. As early as last year, not one QB produced 100 VBD. Now, 4 are going to. That could be a permanent change, due to the new rules implemented this year. But it could also be an outlier. The rule change could very well help all QBs evenly - no extra value over replacement.Also, when talking about dynasty leagues, raw VBD can only go so far. A RB that is projected to get a lion's share of the carries and has a solid health history gets a bump in value that isn't measured by raw VBD. You also have to take roster spots into consideration. The more elite RB options you have, the less roster space needed for lottery tickets at the position. LeSean McCoy was worth more than any QB this year, even if raw VBD suggests otherwise. In other words, the RB position is still the most likely to produce the most value over replacement. Now, if you are not sold on Richardson, that is another story.

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He didn't fair so well agains LSU. Also, it's a down year for Florida, Auburn, and Penn St defensively. Is this a mirage? What about last year?

He looked like one of the best players on the field agaist LSU. When LSU sells out to stop the run, 3.9 is not something to sneeze at. IIRC, he did some damage out of the backfield too.

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Richardson is a monster. I think he's instantly a top 3 dynasty RB along with Rice and McCoy. He is a better looking prospect than they were entering the league, but he might not end up in such a friendly system. One nice thing about him is that he can catch the ball well out of the backfield, so he has PPR potential that a player like Ingram never really possessed.

Of course he was a better looking prospect than Rice and McCoy. Thats the point, none of those backs have performed better than Rice and McCoy. All of these 'expert grades' dont mean crap.I would love to see ANY poster who was saying Ingram wasnt 'instantly a top 3 synasty prospect'.

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I dont understand how Richardson can be so high with how players like Moreno and Mark Ingram have faired

I dont understand how Luck can be so high with how players like JaMarcus Russel and Matt Leinart have fairedI dont understand how Blackmon can be so high with how players like Roy Williams and Charles Rogers have faired
Russel and Leinart havnt been 1.01 FF picks.I remember posting to the board the Russell had bust written all over him.Again, this is about how to best utilize a 1.01-1.03 pick.

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Richardson is a monster. I think he's instantly a top 3 dynasty RB along with Rice and McCoy. He is a better looking prospect than they were entering the league, but he might not end up in such a friendly system. One nice thing about him is that he can catch the ball well out of the backfield, so he has PPR potential that a player like Ingram never really possessed.

Where would Richardson rank value wise compared to multiple other rookies? For example, if you had the #2 and #3 pick (Blackmon and Luck) would you trade them both for Richardson? What about Blackmon and RG3? In one league I have multiple first round picks and I'm curious how much distance there is between Richardson and the other top picks.
Really depends on the format. I'm in one league where passing yards and TDs count the same as rushing/receiving. In that format I'd probably take Luck 1.01. In most formats I would take Richardson though. In a standard PPR league I would probably go...1. Richardson2. Blackmon3. Luck4. FloydI'm pretty high on Blackmon and Floyd, but there's at least some minor bust risk with both of them, whereas I think Richardson has a 0% chance of failing because of talent. The only way he will be a bust is if character drags him down, which doesn't seem likely. I think he's a near lock to become that Edgerrin James/Clinton Portis type of dominant franchise RB who can deliver year in and year out.Blackmon and Floyd have a chance to equal his scoring in ppr leagues, but I think there's a wider range of potential outcomes with them. You could get Hakeem Nicks or merely Braylon Edwards. I would tentatively say that 1.02 and 1.06 represents fair value for Richardson in PPR. I think he is worth more in most non-PPR formats because Blackmon and Floyd will be devalued.
I hope the 1.01's in HAL's agree with you ...

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I feel like Richardson is the Calvin Johnson of RB prospects. :wub:

He's the best overall RB I've seen since Peterson.

That said, I love Blackmon too but there's more risk with him than Richardson.

Why?

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Richardson is a monster. I think he's instantly a top 3 dynasty RB along with Rice and McCoy. He is a better looking prospect than they were entering the league, but he might not end up in such a friendly system. One nice thing about him is that he can catch the ball well out of the backfield, so he has PPR potential that a player like Ingram never really possessed.

Of course he was a better looking prospect than Rice and McCoy. Thats the point, none of those backs have performed better than Rice and McCoy. All of these 'expert grades' dont mean crap.

I would love to see ANY poster who was saying Ingram wasnt 'instantly a top 3 synasty prospect'.

There were TONS of people on this board that thought Ingram was decent, but not a stud. TONS.

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Richardson is a monster. I think he's instantly a top 3 dynasty RB along with Rice and McCoy. He is a better looking prospect than they were entering the league, but he might not end up in such a friendly system. One nice thing about him is that he can catch the ball well out of the backfield, so he has PPR potential that a player like Ingram never really possessed.

Of course he was a better looking prospect than Rice and McCoy. Thats the point, none of those backs have performed better than Rice and McCoy. All of these 'expert grades' dont mean crap.

I would love to see ANY poster who was saying Ingram wasnt 'instantly a top 3 synasty prospect'.

There were TONS of people on this board that thought Ingram was decent, but not a stud. TONS.

Add to that, I am one that thought and still thinks Ingram will be very good, but I dont recall seeing ANYONE say he was 'instantly a top 3 dynasty prospect'.

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Also, when talking about dynasty leagues, raw VBD can only go so far. A RB that is projected to get a lion's share of the carries and has a solid health history gets a bump in value that isn't measured by raw VBD. You also have to take roster spots into consideration. The more elite RB options you have, the less roster space needed for lottery tickets at the position. LeSean McCoy was worth more than any QB this year, even if raw VBD suggests otherwise.

Like Moreno and Ingram?

Regarding McCoy, yes the #1 scoring RB is worth more than any QB ... OF COURSE. The question is, how do you know who this years McCoy is in the draft?

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Richardson is a monster. I think he's instantly a top 3 dynasty RB along with Rice and McCoy. He is a better looking prospect than they were entering the league, but he might not end up in such a friendly system. One nice thing about him is that he can catch the ball well out of the backfield, so he has PPR potential that a player like Ingram never really possessed.

Of course he was a better looking prospect than Rice and McCoy. Thats the point, none of those backs have performed better than Rice and McCoy. All of these 'expert grades' dont mean crap.

I would love to see ANY poster who was saying Ingram wasnt 'instantly a top 3 synasty prospect'.

There were TONS of people on this board that thought Ingram was decent, but not a stud. TONS.
link plz

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Richardson is a monster. I think he's instantly a top 3 dynasty RB along with Rice and McCoy. He is a better looking prospect than they were entering the league, but he might not end up in such a friendly system. One nice thing about him is that he can catch the ball well out of the backfield, so he has PPR potential that a player like Ingram never really possessed.

Of course he was a better looking prospect than Rice and McCoy. Thats the point, none of those backs have performed better than Rice and McCoy. All of these 'expert grades' dont mean crap.

I would love to see ANY poster who was saying Ingram wasnt 'instantly a top 3 synasty prospect'.

There were TONS of people on this board that thought Ingram was decent, but not a stud. TONS.
link plz
Do your own research. Use the search function. He's absolutely right--the Shark Pool, other than the one HOF thread which was panned, has been very conservative, and even negative, on Ingram.

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Richardson is a monster. I think he's instantly a top 3 dynasty RB along with Rice and McCoy. He is a better looking prospect than they were entering the league, but he might not end up in such a friendly system. One nice thing about him is that he can catch the ball well out of the backfield, so he has PPR potential that a player like Ingram never really possessed.

Of course he was a better looking prospect than Rice and McCoy. Thats the point, none of those backs have performed better than Rice and McCoy. All of these 'expert grades' dont mean crap.

I would love to see ANY poster who was saying Ingram wasnt 'instantly a top 3 synasty prospect'.

There were TONS of people on this board that thought Ingram was decent, but not a stud. TONS.
link plz
The link is the Shark Pool. Go look at any link discussing last year's prospects. You're the one making ridiculous comments. I don't need to do your homework for you.

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Like Moreno and Ingram?Regarding McCoy, yes the #1 scoring RB is worth more than any QB ... OF COURSE. The question is, how do you know who this years McCoy is in the draft?

What are you trying to suggest? That there have been busts at the RB spot? "OF COURSE" there have been. Your point, please?

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I feel like Richardson is the Calvin Johnson of RB prospects. :wub:

He's the best overall RB I've seen since Peterson.

That said, I love Blackmon too but there's more risk with him than Richardson.

Why?
WRs bust much more often than RBs.

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Richardson is a monster. I think he's instantly a top 3 dynasty RB along with Rice and McCoy. He is a better looking prospect than they were entering the league, but he might not end up in such a friendly system. One nice thing about him is that he can catch the ball well out of the backfield, so he has PPR potential that a player like Ingram never really possessed.

Of course he was a better looking prospect than Rice and McCoy. Thats the point, none of those backs have performed better than Rice and McCoy. All of these 'expert grades' dont mean crap.I would love to see ANY poster who was saying Ingram wasnt 'instantly a top 3 synasty prospect'.
I don't think anybody had Ingram as a top dynasty prospect. Personally I didn't have him in my top 50. I am not sure why you remember Ingram being a top 3 guy. I really doubt he ever went in the top 20 in any startup.

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Richardson is a monster. I think he's instantly a top 3 dynasty RB along with Rice and McCoy. He is a better looking prospect than they were entering the league, but he might not end up in such a friendly system. One nice thing about him is that he can catch the ball well out of the backfield, so he has PPR potential that a player like Ingram never really possessed.

Of course he was a better looking prospect than Rice and McCoy. Thats the point, none of those backs have performed better than Rice and McCoy. All of these 'expert grades' dont mean crap.I would love to see ANY poster who was saying Ingram wasnt 'instantly a top 3 synasty prospect'.
I don't think anybody had Ingram as a top dynasty prospect. Personally I didn't have him in my top 50. I am not sure why you remember Ingram being a top 3 guy. I really doubt he ever went in the top 20 in any startup.
He went 17 in the one startup I did last year. Which, if I remember all of my other startups correctly, is typical for the consensus top rookie back. People liked Ingram the way they liked Moreno and Mathews. And even McFadden. You have to go back to ADP to find someone with as much hype as Richardson. And Richardson probably has more "can't miss" love (iirc, ADP had toughness/injury concerns - and didn't Waldman rank Lynch over ADP, too?) In fact, Richardson has more "can't miss" comments than I can recall ever hearing for anyone else. It's hard to find someone who doesn't love the guy as a prospect.

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Bump I just got the 2nd overall pick and the 12th overall pick in a Dynasty league - would like to hear any new opinions.

Probably I will be picking from Luck, RG3 and T-Rich for my 1st pick - I need some RB help but Luck or RG3 could be really really good for years to come.

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Bump I just got the 2nd overall pick and the 12th overall pick in a Dynasty league - would like to hear any new opinions. Probably I will be picking from Luck, RG3 and T-Rich for my 1st pick - I need some RB help but Luck or RG3 could be really really good for years to come.

Unless it's a start 2 qb league you shouldn't take a QB early in dynasty drafts unless the cubbard is completely bare and I mean completely. Most rookie drafts will go 1.01 - Richardson, 1.02 - Blackmon (even though I have my doubts about him), 1.03 - 1.07 (some order of Doug Martin, Michael Floyd, Luck, RG3, Lamar Miller, and David Wilson).

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I disagree with the above post. If in a league that does not start 2 qbs, I see nothing wrong with taking a stud qb prospect like Luck or Griffin in top 4. Especially if all tds are 6 points. Super stud qbs are helping teams win championships. Why pass on the chance if you need a qb and tbink a bonafide perrenial top 5 is there for the taking?

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If "you have your doubts" about Blackmon, you have to take a guy you don't have doubts about, even if it's at a less premium position. What are the chances Luck offers VBD at QB? Pretty high (Matt Ryan has, and that seems to be the floor). What are the chances Blackmon offers VBD at WR? A bit more of a risk IMO.

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Sure, Luck and RG3 are "safer" picks, but I also think they need to become studs in order to justify the pick. RBs or WRs really only need to end up being in the top 24 at RB or 36 at WR in most leagues to be an every-week starter. I really like Luck and Griffin, but there is just about no margin for error there. If they don't become top 5, it was a waste. One of those RBs or WRs is more likely to bust, sure, but they don't need to become studs to become very valuable on your fantasy team.

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Bump I just got the 2nd overall pick and the 12th overall pick in a Dynasty league - would like to hear any new opinions. Probably I will be picking from Luck, RG3 and T-Rich for my 1st pick - I need some RB help but Luck or RG3 could be really really good for years to come.

also depends on where Martin and co (2nd tier RBs) land . . . have to wait until the end of the game - right now, it's still halftime.

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Who's the top back after Richardson? I hear so many different opinions. Some say Doug Martin is heads and shoulders above the others and then another scout says David Wilson is the man. What's the consensus?

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Bump I just got the 2nd overall pick and the 12th overall pick in a Dynasty league - would like to hear any new opinions. Probably I will be picking from Luck, RG3 and T-Rich for my 1st pick - I need some RB help but Luck or RG3 could be really really good for years to come.

Unless it's a start 2 qb league you shouldn't take a QB early in dynasty drafts unless the cubbard is completely bare and I mean completely. Most rookie drafts will go 1.01 - Richardson, 1.02 - Blackmon (even though I have my doubts about him), 1.03 - 1.07 (some order of Doug Martin, Michael Floyd, Luck, RG3, Lamar Miller, and David Wilson).
Strangely I agree with Johnny u except I would add Kendall wright to that mix to make 1.3-1.9If u want a QB at 2 trade down a few spots and maximize value

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Who's the top back after Richardson? I hear so many different opinions. Some say Doug Martin is heads and shoulders above the others and then another scout says David Wilson is the man. What's the consensus?

The consensus is that...there is no consensus.I like Doug Martin because of his all-around game. He might not be amazing, but he's a starting caliber RB with no weaknesses. With the other guys, there are at least one or two little things that make me uneasy.

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