Goat Herders
Footballguy
Well, here we go with Version 2.0. If you missed Version 1.0, click there and check it out.
I am still only one HERD, so I'm doing my best. Kudos to all the other Mock's that have been posted. I've tried to learn from everybody's thoughts and comments in the earlier version, but I know we'll still disagree in some spots. This version assumes a couple of things...
1. Drew Henson still isn't settled, so teams interested in QB might still draft one.
2. I get to make a trade that I think is going to happen in the most important spot - the top of the draft.
Lets get down to busines...
HERD's NFL Mock Draft - Round 1 - Version 2.0
1. Arizona Cardinals - Eli Manning QB - Ole Miss - Here's my trade. Sorry its not too terribly exciting. Green takes the coaching gig and offers Marty/SD the #3 overall and a later pick to leap over the Raiders and get the QB he wants. A QB tossing it to Boldin, Freddie Jones, Johnson, handing it to Shipp? That young offense could be nasty with the right QB on board. Manning is the guy, and Denny Green is in good shape for years to come.
2. Oakland Raiders - Larry Fitzgerald - WR - Pitt - I think Fitzgerald's coming out. The Raiders wanted Manning, but given the choice, they're not taking Rothlisberger when they've got Tui on board. Fitz gives the franchise a "face" that they need for when Rice is gone. Despite being loaded at WR (Porter, Gabriel, Curry, plus Rice and Brown), the Raiders see a chance to get a true #1 offensive WR option. Give him a year of seasoning with Rice, and Fitz and Porter will be a combo to be reckoned with for the next decade. (The Ben Rothlisberger free-fall has begun!)
3. San Diego Chargers - Robert Gallery - OT - Iowa - What a coup! Not wanting to stick around to groom another QB (Marty isn't exactly young), they get the left tackle they need to protect short-man Drew Brees. And if Brees is ineffective? No problem, LT2 can run behind Gallery all day long. The Chargers don't need a new QB as bad as they need an effective O-line, and they certainly don't want to be the team that passed on a Manning two times.
4. New York Giants - Shaun Andrews - OT - Arkansas - Coughlin would love to grab a defensive player here, but even he is smart enough to realize that O-line is the dire need. His first pick with the Jags was Boselli, IIRC. His first pick here is another talented, huge, O-lineman. I think any other personel guys would consider Rothlisberger here, but Coughlin and company are taking the O-lineman.
5. Washington Redskins - Kenechi Udeze - DE - USC Showing how reasonable I am, I don't think Gibbs jumps on a tight end like I thought Spurrier would have. As the vet coaches of the NFC East seem to understand, getting competitive in a hurry means DEFENSE. Gibbs gets his choice and takes a D-lineman to make $$$ Arrington's job easier.
6. Detroit Lions - Sean Taylor - S - Miami - A bad defensive backfield just got a lot better with the addition of a HUGE physical Safety. Taylor will be able to help in all areas of the defensive game, and is a must pick for the Lions at this point.
7. Atlanta Falcons - Vince Wilfork - DLine - Miami - Missing out on Andrews stings, but the defense isn't anything to write home about either. They gladly take Vince Wilfork and hope he can help plug up the middle in a division stocked with tough runners.
8. Cleveland Browns - Kellen Winslow II - TE - Miami - The Browns need O-line help, but nobody grades out well enough here. Similarly, they're not taking Ohio's own Rothlisberger because they got burned the last time they took a 1st round QB and Davis is interested in keeping his job. Winslow can block like a pro already so he'll help the line a bit, and he's going to sell some tickets and jerseys as he gives the Browns the name guy they desperately want and need. Toss in that he's a Miami guy and Butch will feel comfortable with him (Who do you think recruited the kid to UM?) and he'll be in an orange helmet next year. Sorry, Buffalo.
9. Jacksonville Jaguars - Roy Williams - WR - UTexas - After lots of waffling back and forth over which Williams to take, Del Rio opts for "physical" over "finesse" and takes The Legend. Sitting on their couches at home, Byron Leftwich and Fred Taylor smile. Roy will fit in well with the Jags suddenly physical style of play. Joining the Titans and Colts in true contention, the AFC South is going to be fun to watch for years to come.
10. Houston Texans - Tommy Harris - DLine - Oklahoma - The Texans need to develop some sort of pass rush. As much as they would have loved Sean Taylor, he's not dropping this far. They take Harris and hope he's the defensive leader they covet for the future.
11. Pittsburgh Steelers - Ben Rothlisberger - QB - Miami(Oh) -The slide stops here. Deangelo Hall was a consideration, but Cowher feels comfortable enough is his own skin to push for the "QB of the future" they desperately need. Maddox gets one more shot in '04, then its time for a change. CB will be addressed through FA.
12. New York Jets - Reggie Williams - WR - Washington - Williams gives the Jets a guy that can keep D's honest, particularly with Santana across the field. Considering the Conway experiment doens't seem to be working out as planned, Williams is too good to pass up. The new D Coordinator will be pushing for Defense, but with so many young guys already on that side of the ball, I think they'll address D through Free Agency with some reasonably priced, efficient veterans.
13. Buffalo Bills - Will Smith - DE - Ohio State - As much as they are tempted by Ben Troupe, DE is a big need and 13 is a tad high for a TE. In the AFC East, you've got to have defense in December or you're not going anywhere. Smith helps fill a big hole. (I think there's a chance Troupe will be there in the 2nd for them. Not a big chance, but a chance.)
14. Chicago Bears - Randy Starks - DT, Maryland - They need more D! They also need someone to clog up the front so #54 doesn't see so many downfield blockers. Starks is a good fit here. Not much to get excited about, but a solid effort from the Bears.
15. Tampa Bay Bucs - Stephen Jackson - RB - Oregon State - So you say a RB will come off before #15? Don't bet on it - who, other then Pitt or Detroit would take one? Jackson gives Gruden a combo of Garner and Alstott, which makes the Bucs contenders again overnight. For the fantasy football world, not thinking Jackson (if taken by Tampa) is worth a slot in the preseason RB top-20 would be foolish.
16. San Fransisco - Rashaun Woods WR - OkState - Woods, combined with Brandon Lloyd, make Tai Streets and TO leaving palatable. Reloading at the skill positions and resigning their defensive players put the 49ers back in the NFC West hunt pretty quickly. Looks like the Bay Area battle of WR tandems will be in full swing once again. For those who think Woods is too high here, I'm banking on his showstopping pass catch and seperation ability vaulting him back into a draft position he seemed destined for last summer.
17. Cincinatti Bengals - Derrick Strait - CB - Oklahoma - Cincy needs a cover guy to handle the Hines Wards and Dennis Northcutts (
)of the division. Strait is a team player and doesn't have an ounce of quit in him. This is Marvin's guy all the way.
18. New Orleans Saints - Chris Gamble - CB - Ohio State -Still trying to strengthen their own pass D, the Saints take Gamble and hope he's as good as the national media would have them believe. I am not a big fan of Gamble, but I can't deny he has been every bit the heart and soul of a quality college D for the last 2 seasons. Intangibles count for something.
19. Minnesota Vikings - David Pollack - DE - Georgia - Vikings need a Defensive End, and Pollack is actually a little lower then expected. They gladly take him, assuming they can find the podium on time...
20. Miami Dolphins - Vernon Carrey - Oline - UMiami - Phillip Rivers and Lee Evans were considered here, but the immediate need for the first 10 win non-playoff team in a decade is O-line. In a division that plays in the snow from Thanksgiving on, you've got to be able to "plow" to run the ball. Carrey is a mammoth of a man that can get the job done.
21. New England Patrios - Kevin Jones - RB - V. Tech - The Pats patience pays off as they get their man. With Faulk still on board to catch some of the screen passes, a dreadful run game just got a whole lot better.
22. Seattle Seahwaks - Karlos Dansby - LB - Auburn - Dansby helps the Seahwawks get some depth on defense. The Seahawks are the one of a few teams that has no glaring "need" so much as a need for quality depth at a few spots and quality HEALTH(!!!) at a few others. Dansby is the best option available, especially if they resign Walter Jones for the O-line.
23. Dallas Cowboys - Chris Perry - RB - Michigan - My "agony" pick, I was SURE that Cedric Benson was going to Dallas, but he's staying in school. I still think Cadillac's coming out, so he might end up here, but for now, we'll stick with the best declared RB option. Perry is the "workhorse" type of back Parcells likes and he can catch the rock a little too. This is a good fit, solid but unspectacular. (***If Cadillac declares, Benson changes his mind, or Greg Jones's knee checks out, any one of them could bump Perry into the 2nd round - and to the Lions - here)
24. Denver Broncos - DeAngelo Hall - DB - VTech - Deltha O hasn't exactly worked out, or at least he's not a viable DB anymore. Hall is pretty much the guy they need to quickly fill that gap and even offer some special teams help if Oneil is gone entirely.
25. Green Bay Packers - Phillip Rivers - QB - NCState - Well, Farve says he'll stick around a while. How conveeeeeenient. The Pack could stand to add depth at a variety of positions, but considering there aren't any dire needs and they never are bad enough to get great draft position, a QB like Rivers this late in the first is too good to pass up.
26. Carolina Panthers - Nathan Vasher - CB/ST - UTexas Missing out on a top-notch receiver is pretty disappointing, but that would have been a luxury. The defense has carried them to here, and it will have to continue. Vasher may seem like a stretch, but he's got the cover skills necessary and can contribute on Special Teams as well. Will Poole and Keiwan Ratliff are considerations as well. (**This is the Mock pick I'm the least comfortable with...Bash away!)
27. Tennessee Titans - Nat Dorsey - Oline - Georgia Tech - At some point, Brad "Holding" Hopkins needs to see less field time. Similarly, the team has been rotating O-linemen at a rapid pace trying to find a good mix. I think they take Dorsey here and let Rolle, Tompson, Woofolk, and Williams work out the D-backfield.
28. Indianapolis - DJ Williams LB - UMiami - Williams slide is a bit of a surprise, and Dungy couldn't be happier about adding a fast, physical player to his defense.
29. St. Louis Rams - Will Poole - CB - USC - Poole showed some things to the nation in his last few games. He's got the tools necessary to come in and help slow down other teams passing games, especailly on the fast St. Louis turf.
30. Kansas City Chiefs - Jonathan Vilma - LB - UMiami - They need a run-stopper and a middle of the field defender. Vilma gets the nod. Could go a number of ways this late in the 1st.
31. Philadelphia Eagles - Michael Clayton - WR - LSU - Lee Evans is a consideration, but Clayton showed too much this year for the Eagles to pass on him. He can be a marquis WR to put next to Pinkston and he's got the hands to fit into Reid's system.
32. New England Patriots - Lee Evans - WR - Wisconsin - Evans has done enough to give him a chance to creep into the 1st round. At this point, I don't think the Pats are going to draft defense, so some good players like Marcus Tubbs and Ben Troupe slip to the second round. Evans gives Brady a tall, fast WR to toss the ball to.
I think this is how it will shake out as of now. The only places I'm really unsettled are Carolina's pick and having 6 WRs in the first. It just so happens I think all 6 guys grade out well enough and the last 5 or 6 picks of the first round are usually convenience picks for solid teams, not pressing needs. So, I think its possible that there are really 4 first round WRs, and Philly and New England simply choose to grab WRs too because they are the best options avialable.
Feedback, as always, is welcome!
HERD
I am still only one HERD, so I'm doing my best. Kudos to all the other Mock's that have been posted. I've tried to learn from everybody's thoughts and comments in the earlier version, but I know we'll still disagree in some spots. This version assumes a couple of things...
1. Drew Henson still isn't settled, so teams interested in QB might still draft one.
2. I get to make a trade that I think is going to happen in the most important spot - the top of the draft.
Lets get down to busines...
HERD's NFL Mock Draft - Round 1 - Version 2.0
1. Arizona Cardinals - Eli Manning QB - Ole Miss - Here's my trade. Sorry its not too terribly exciting. Green takes the coaching gig and offers Marty/SD the #3 overall and a later pick to leap over the Raiders and get the QB he wants. A QB tossing it to Boldin, Freddie Jones, Johnson, handing it to Shipp? That young offense could be nasty with the right QB on board. Manning is the guy, and Denny Green is in good shape for years to come.
2. Oakland Raiders - Larry Fitzgerald - WR - Pitt - I think Fitzgerald's coming out. The Raiders wanted Manning, but given the choice, they're not taking Rothlisberger when they've got Tui on board. Fitz gives the franchise a "face" that they need for when Rice is gone. Despite being loaded at WR (Porter, Gabriel, Curry, plus Rice and Brown), the Raiders see a chance to get a true #1 offensive WR option. Give him a year of seasoning with Rice, and Fitz and Porter will be a combo to be reckoned with for the next decade. (The Ben Rothlisberger free-fall has begun!)
3. San Diego Chargers - Robert Gallery - OT - Iowa - What a coup! Not wanting to stick around to groom another QB (Marty isn't exactly young), they get the left tackle they need to protect short-man Drew Brees. And if Brees is ineffective? No problem, LT2 can run behind Gallery all day long. The Chargers don't need a new QB as bad as they need an effective O-line, and they certainly don't want to be the team that passed on a Manning two times.
4. New York Giants - Shaun Andrews - OT - Arkansas - Coughlin would love to grab a defensive player here, but even he is smart enough to realize that O-line is the dire need. His first pick with the Jags was Boselli, IIRC. His first pick here is another talented, huge, O-lineman. I think any other personel guys would consider Rothlisberger here, but Coughlin and company are taking the O-lineman.
5. Washington Redskins - Kenechi Udeze - DE - USC Showing how reasonable I am, I don't think Gibbs jumps on a tight end like I thought Spurrier would have. As the vet coaches of the NFC East seem to understand, getting competitive in a hurry means DEFENSE. Gibbs gets his choice and takes a D-lineman to make $$$ Arrington's job easier.
6. Detroit Lions - Sean Taylor - S - Miami - A bad defensive backfield just got a lot better with the addition of a HUGE physical Safety. Taylor will be able to help in all areas of the defensive game, and is a must pick for the Lions at this point.
7. Atlanta Falcons - Vince Wilfork - DLine - Miami - Missing out on Andrews stings, but the defense isn't anything to write home about either. They gladly take Vince Wilfork and hope he can help plug up the middle in a division stocked with tough runners.
8. Cleveland Browns - Kellen Winslow II - TE - Miami - The Browns need O-line help, but nobody grades out well enough here. Similarly, they're not taking Ohio's own Rothlisberger because they got burned the last time they took a 1st round QB and Davis is interested in keeping his job. Winslow can block like a pro already so he'll help the line a bit, and he's going to sell some tickets and jerseys as he gives the Browns the name guy they desperately want and need. Toss in that he's a Miami guy and Butch will feel comfortable with him (Who do you think recruited the kid to UM?) and he'll be in an orange helmet next year. Sorry, Buffalo.
9. Jacksonville Jaguars - Roy Williams - WR - UTexas - After lots of waffling back and forth over which Williams to take, Del Rio opts for "physical" over "finesse" and takes The Legend. Sitting on their couches at home, Byron Leftwich and Fred Taylor smile. Roy will fit in well with the Jags suddenly physical style of play. Joining the Titans and Colts in true contention, the AFC South is going to be fun to watch for years to come.
10. Houston Texans - Tommy Harris - DLine - Oklahoma - The Texans need to develop some sort of pass rush. As much as they would have loved Sean Taylor, he's not dropping this far. They take Harris and hope he's the defensive leader they covet for the future.
11. Pittsburgh Steelers - Ben Rothlisberger - QB - Miami(Oh) -The slide stops here. Deangelo Hall was a consideration, but Cowher feels comfortable enough is his own skin to push for the "QB of the future" they desperately need. Maddox gets one more shot in '04, then its time for a change. CB will be addressed through FA.
12. New York Jets - Reggie Williams - WR - Washington - Williams gives the Jets a guy that can keep D's honest, particularly with Santana across the field. Considering the Conway experiment doens't seem to be working out as planned, Williams is too good to pass up. The new D Coordinator will be pushing for Defense, but with so many young guys already on that side of the ball, I think they'll address D through Free Agency with some reasonably priced, efficient veterans.
13. Buffalo Bills - Will Smith - DE - Ohio State - As much as they are tempted by Ben Troupe, DE is a big need and 13 is a tad high for a TE. In the AFC East, you've got to have defense in December or you're not going anywhere. Smith helps fill a big hole. (I think there's a chance Troupe will be there in the 2nd for them. Not a big chance, but a chance.)
14. Chicago Bears - Randy Starks - DT, Maryland - They need more D! They also need someone to clog up the front so #54 doesn't see so many downfield blockers. Starks is a good fit here. Not much to get excited about, but a solid effort from the Bears.
15. Tampa Bay Bucs - Stephen Jackson - RB - Oregon State - So you say a RB will come off before #15? Don't bet on it - who, other then Pitt or Detroit would take one? Jackson gives Gruden a combo of Garner and Alstott, which makes the Bucs contenders again overnight. For the fantasy football world, not thinking Jackson (if taken by Tampa) is worth a slot in the preseason RB top-20 would be foolish.
16. San Fransisco - Rashaun Woods WR - OkState - Woods, combined with Brandon Lloyd, make Tai Streets and TO leaving palatable. Reloading at the skill positions and resigning their defensive players put the 49ers back in the NFC West hunt pretty quickly. Looks like the Bay Area battle of WR tandems will be in full swing once again. For those who think Woods is too high here, I'm banking on his showstopping pass catch and seperation ability vaulting him back into a draft position he seemed destined for last summer.
17. Cincinatti Bengals - Derrick Strait - CB - Oklahoma - Cincy needs a cover guy to handle the Hines Wards and Dennis Northcutts (
)of the division. Strait is a team player and doesn't have an ounce of quit in him. This is Marvin's guy all the way.18. New Orleans Saints - Chris Gamble - CB - Ohio State -Still trying to strengthen their own pass D, the Saints take Gamble and hope he's as good as the national media would have them believe. I am not a big fan of Gamble, but I can't deny he has been every bit the heart and soul of a quality college D for the last 2 seasons. Intangibles count for something.
19. Minnesota Vikings - David Pollack - DE - Georgia - Vikings need a Defensive End, and Pollack is actually a little lower then expected. They gladly take him, assuming they can find the podium on time...
20. Miami Dolphins - Vernon Carrey - Oline - UMiami - Phillip Rivers and Lee Evans were considered here, but the immediate need for the first 10 win non-playoff team in a decade is O-line. In a division that plays in the snow from Thanksgiving on, you've got to be able to "plow" to run the ball. Carrey is a mammoth of a man that can get the job done.
21. New England Patrios - Kevin Jones - RB - V. Tech - The Pats patience pays off as they get their man. With Faulk still on board to catch some of the screen passes, a dreadful run game just got a whole lot better.
22. Seattle Seahwaks - Karlos Dansby - LB - Auburn - Dansby helps the Seahwawks get some depth on defense. The Seahawks are the one of a few teams that has no glaring "need" so much as a need for quality depth at a few spots and quality HEALTH(!!!) at a few others. Dansby is the best option available, especially if they resign Walter Jones for the O-line.
23. Dallas Cowboys - Chris Perry - RB - Michigan - My "agony" pick, I was SURE that Cedric Benson was going to Dallas, but he's staying in school. I still think Cadillac's coming out, so he might end up here, but for now, we'll stick with the best declared RB option. Perry is the "workhorse" type of back Parcells likes and he can catch the rock a little too. This is a good fit, solid but unspectacular. (***If Cadillac declares, Benson changes his mind, or Greg Jones's knee checks out, any one of them could bump Perry into the 2nd round - and to the Lions - here)
24. Denver Broncos - DeAngelo Hall - DB - VTech - Deltha O hasn't exactly worked out, or at least he's not a viable DB anymore. Hall is pretty much the guy they need to quickly fill that gap and even offer some special teams help if Oneil is gone entirely.
25. Green Bay Packers - Phillip Rivers - QB - NCState - Well, Farve says he'll stick around a while. How conveeeeeenient. The Pack could stand to add depth at a variety of positions, but considering there aren't any dire needs and they never are bad enough to get great draft position, a QB like Rivers this late in the first is too good to pass up.
26. Carolina Panthers - Nathan Vasher - CB/ST - UTexas Missing out on a top-notch receiver is pretty disappointing, but that would have been a luxury. The defense has carried them to here, and it will have to continue. Vasher may seem like a stretch, but he's got the cover skills necessary and can contribute on Special Teams as well. Will Poole and Keiwan Ratliff are considerations as well. (**This is the Mock pick I'm the least comfortable with...Bash away!)
27. Tennessee Titans - Nat Dorsey - Oline - Georgia Tech - At some point, Brad "Holding" Hopkins needs to see less field time. Similarly, the team has been rotating O-linemen at a rapid pace trying to find a good mix. I think they take Dorsey here and let Rolle, Tompson, Woofolk, and Williams work out the D-backfield.
28. Indianapolis - DJ Williams LB - UMiami - Williams slide is a bit of a surprise, and Dungy couldn't be happier about adding a fast, physical player to his defense.
29. St. Louis Rams - Will Poole - CB - USC - Poole showed some things to the nation in his last few games. He's got the tools necessary to come in and help slow down other teams passing games, especailly on the fast St. Louis turf.
30. Kansas City Chiefs - Jonathan Vilma - LB - UMiami - They need a run-stopper and a middle of the field defender. Vilma gets the nod. Could go a number of ways this late in the 1st.
31. Philadelphia Eagles - Michael Clayton - WR - LSU - Lee Evans is a consideration, but Clayton showed too much this year for the Eagles to pass on him. He can be a marquis WR to put next to Pinkston and he's got the hands to fit into Reid's system.
32. New England Patriots - Lee Evans - WR - Wisconsin - Evans has done enough to give him a chance to creep into the 1st round. At this point, I don't think the Pats are going to draft defense, so some good players like Marcus Tubbs and Ben Troupe slip to the second round. Evans gives Brady a tall, fast WR to toss the ball to.
I think this is how it will shake out as of now. The only places I'm really unsettled are Carolina's pick and having 6 WRs in the first. It just so happens I think all 6 guys grade out well enough and the last 5 or 6 picks of the first round are usually convenience picks for solid teams, not pressing needs. So, I think its possible that there are really 4 first round WRs, and Philly and New England simply choose to grab WRs too because they are the best options avialable.
Feedback, as always, is welcome!
HERD
Clarett will win his case and probably will be a late first or early second round pick in all sincerity. Herd is a good judge of ability but from the posts you made from last year he is really missing the boat on this kid. Very pessimistic as a buckeye-hater.I also I agree with Jason Wood on Ben Rothenburger is top ten.Good stuff, I'm already looking forward to the real draft.
. To pass on the other Manning...it could be epic the type of fallout that could occur if he turns into a big time QB.2) I like your thinking on Washington, but I still feel that they will go with Tommie Harris. There is a debate as to whether he is truly a DT or a DE, but since the Skins can use help at both positions, Harris gives them development options and from a tools perspective, Harris is a top notch talent.3) I see alot of mocks slotting Taylor to the Lions, and it's possible. But at some point, they have to solve their RB issues...until I see what Jackson/Jones do at the combine and in team workouts, I have to withhold judgement. But the whole complexion of the draft IMO shifts with this pick. If they do go RB, then the draft could stay relatively quiet. If they go for another position, things are going to get really wild trade-wise.Other than that, I like your logic on alot of the picks...Carey to Miami is a very astute pick.It looks like Pollack is staying in school.My sleeper RB is Greg Jones. Before his knee injury, alot of people thought he had Top 5 pick ability. Coming off his ACL injury, he had an unspectacular year, but we all know about ACL injuries (2 years). I could see him skyrocketing based on combine/workouts/all-star game result because the fact of the matter is this. When he is on...he's a beast. I could see Parcells grabbing him. BTW...did you know his cousin is Joe Frazier??!!
