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Matt Waldman

Josh Gordon Everything Thread

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his TD week 1 is evidence of what he will do all season long. and that 40yd bomb he held getting smacked by 3 defenders

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2 minutes ago, Soulfly3 said:

his TD week 1 is evidence of what he will do all season long. and that 40yd bomb he held getting smacked by 3 defenders

Just curious. How many seconds does it take for those plays to develop? NE plays the Jets and Bills the next two weeks. Both have solid defenses. I am guessing if they take more then two seconds, Brady may not have time to get the ball out without being hit. The Pats are only short two starting tackles and their starting center. 

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27 minutes ago, Soulfly3 said:

It’s clear a few pics down he has Brady’s full support. It’s go time boys. I’ll gladly take prime Gronk-like #s at WR2. 

Edited by JetMaxx
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7 hours ago, Soulfly3 said:

 

On 9/19/2019 at 5:34 PM, BassNBrew said:

I'm predicting a very good week.  Soulfly has disappeared in shame once again which usually means good things for Gordon.

you're 0/2 on your last 2 attempts. yikes.

 

Dead on.  You disappear and Gordon gets the best news of the year.  I was the only one in here predicting a good week.  Once again I was right.  Now the only question is how much you pollute this thread and cause bad thing to happen to Gordon.

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Anarchy99 makes sound arguments. He's just very wedded to his stances, sometimes (often?) too rigidly.

I see it mainly because I can be the same way. Struggled with this mindset my entire life, when the consequences were much greater!

That said, I appreciate his thoughtful, insightful and thorough explanations of his reasoning. Helps me to decide what I should buy and what I should leave.

Not buying Pats will be a running team with an OL that can't block for more than two seconds all season. That may be (somewhat) true now, but Scarneccia is the the OL coach and Bellychick the big dog.

And they have 8 weeks to figure it out before their stretch run when they'll be playing for home field and we will be playing for fantasy gold...

10 BYE

11 Phi

12 Dal

13 @Hou

14 KC

15 @Cin

16 Buf

See ya on the other side, gents. 😎

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On 9/12/2019 at 11:54 AM, Nucker101 said:

Anyone thinking of making an aggressive trade offer for him in redraft? Feel like his value will go up big time if AB ends up getting let go, but at the same time he's going too be hard to trust if AB sticks around. I'm considering doing this in leagues where I've lost Tyreek Hill

:)

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19 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

Just curious. How many seconds does it take for those plays to develop? NE plays the Jets and Bills the next two weeks. Both have solid defenses. I am guessing if they take more then two seconds, Brady may not have time to get the ball out without being hit. The Pats are only short two starting tackles and their starting center. 

Slants, screens, draws, etc...

Thing is, it's the Jets, and the bills, two horrible franchises.  Even when they have good D's, they will be out-manuevered by the Pats.  The Jets will prolly be 3 and out almost every possession.  The bills have a better O, but still, it's the bills....

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Someone dropped him in a league I am in prior to the AB news. Need a wr2 badly. How much would you guys drop in FAAB on him?  I currently have a bid in for ~$60 on him out of $100 but am thinking about going all in. 

WWYD?

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1 hour ago, snore said:

Someone dropped him in a league I am in prior to the AB news. Need a wr2 badly. How much would you guys drop in FAAB on him?  I currently have a bid in for ~$60 on him out of $100 but am thinking about going all in. 

WWYD?

Can you pick up players for 0, or is the minimum bid $1? Will you need to pick up Ks and Ds for bye weeks?

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4 hours ago, JamieMurphy said:

Can you pick up players for 0, or is the minimum bid $1? Will you need to pick up Ks and Ds for bye weeks?

Xan min bid for $0. I blew my wad for him and now am rostering him. Fingers crossed after the antonio brown debacle. 

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3 hours ago, snore said:

Xan min bid for $0. I blew my wad for him and now am rostering him. Fingers crossed after the antonio brown debacle. 

I'm thinking if he stays healthy he'll pay off for you. Got him in a bunch of leagues too, was glad his fantasy picture has gotten clearer in the past three days.

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Quote

Josh Gordon snared six catches for a team-high 83 yards on 11 targets while rushing once for a one-yard pickup Sunday in the Patriots’ Week 3 win over the Jets.

He benefited from the absence of Julian Edelman, who sat out the second half with a chest injury. Gordon had a couple injury scares himself, heading to the medical tent after falling on his hip late in the second quarter and also appearing to injure his finger early in the third quarter. Neither ailment kept him out long as Gordon impressed with a number of big catches (he beat Darryl Roberts for an acrobatic 28-yard reception, setting up first-and-goal with four minutes to go in the third quarter), but also struggled with inconsistency, submitting two drops in the winning effort. Gordon should be a downfield staple for the Pats going forward, particularly now that Antonio Brown's time in Foxboro has come and gone. He can expect shadow coverage from Bills corner Tre'Davious White in Week 4.

Sep 22, 2019, 4:32 PM ET

 

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Currently 2nd in the NFL (of all active players) in yards per reception (career), with 17.3. 

#1 has... 17.4

 

Edited by Soulfly3

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Catch rate isn't exactly off the charts.

As I said upthread, Dorsett is a play on this team with A Brown down.

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Just now, Soulfly3 said:

Yep he's #1. 

And #3 is 16.1ypr. What a jump

J. Gordon is averaging 7.9 points per game as a WR3 in standard. Not too, too bad, but I'd it's about or near replacement level, I'd guess. 

I'd like to see actual numbers. I could be really wrong on that. 

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1 minute ago, rockaction said:

J. Gordon is averaging 7.9 points per game as a WR3 in standard. Not too, too bad, but I'd it's about or near replacement level, I'd guess. 

I'd like to see actual numbers. I could be really wrong on that. 

Not one to say "toss out that week" but week 2 was a ab sideshow. And he's gone, so it's fair enough to look at Gordon thru the lense of week 1 and 3, since that's what we'll see ROS  

15.35PPG in ppr leagues

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Just now, Soulfly3 said:

Not one to say "toss out that week" but week 2 was a ab sideshow. And he's gone, so it's fair enough to look at Gordon thru the lense of week 1 and 3, since that's what we'll see ROS  

15.35PPG in ppr leagues

Yeah, if you're looking for predictive or trending stuff, then without AB is absolutely the way to look, IMHO. 

Gordon became viable again as soon as AB was released. NEP is playing with fire, though. Not crazy to think Josh gets suspended again for relapse.

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sure. but this season showing me that w the injury rate, i give zero extra "stress" to his situation than any other player

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I agree with @Soulfly3 that week 2 cannot be factored in with AB circus. 

3-73-TD

6-83...11 targets but James White was OUT

Let's assume that over the next month they don't play anyone that tough and he hovers around 10-15 a week in PPR leagues. I think that when New England has to actually win a game and score 30+ in the process you will see bigger numbers which in reality is not that often. 

Pats rushing game seems off, that's gonna smooth itself out at some point. 

New England defense seems to be able to shut teams down when the game matters...were they up 30-0 yesterday before they allowed a few points? This defense is one of their best ever in the BB era, that's scary. 

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9 minutes ago, Ministry of Pain said:

New England defense seems to be able to shut teams down when the game matters...were they up 30-0 yesterday before they allowed a few points? This defense is one of their best ever in the BB era, that's scary. 

The defense gave up 105 yards and 0 points. They stopped the Jets on a late possession, who punted, and the rookie NE returner muffed the punt and the Jets recovered in the end zone. After the kickoff, NE put in their rookie QB, who promptly threw a pick 6.

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1 hour ago, Ministry of Pain said:

Or Ben Roethlisberger 

Did you see the "Ben Roethlisberger" they faced?

Respect you MOP, but this was one of the more disingenuous or uninformed comments I've ever seen you make.

My comment above came across adversarial, and I don't want it to be. All I mean is Ben's arm was clearly shot this season from go.

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the catches he made after dislocating his finger (and having it popped back in).... absolutely obscene.

there's only one way to endear yourself to the goat. he's done it.

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5 hours ago, LawFitz said:

Did you see the "Ben Roethlisberger" they faced?

Respect you MOP, but this was one of the more disingenuous or uninformed comments I've ever seen you make.

My comment above came across adversarial, and I don't want it to be. All I mean is Ben's arm was clearly shot this season from go.

I wasn't trying to one up anyone, it was just a comment. We good 😁

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According to PFF Stats, Josh Gordon has been targeted 18 times, caught 11, and dropped two balls for a 61.5% catch rate. He has one TD in three games.

Not exactly beating worlds down, not terrible. 

In other news, Phillip Dorsett has been targeted 14 times, caught 13, and dropped one for an 87.5% catch rate. He also has three TDs in three games.

Hmm...

Edited by rockaction
PFFs targets have proven to be consistently off
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37 minutes ago, rockaction said:

According to PFF Stats, Josh Gordon has been targeted 18 times, caught 11, and dropped two balls for a 61.5% catch rate. He has one TD in three games.

Not exactly beating worlds down, not terrible. 

In other news, Phillip Dorsett has been targeted 15 times, caught 13, and dropped one for an 87.5% catch rate. He also has three TDs in three games.

Hmm...

Are you saying that Dorsett is a better WR than Gordon? 

I expect both to get a heavy target share this week.  Look at the roster.  There isn't anybody else if Edelman doesn't play. 

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Just now, Hairy Snowman said:

Are you saying that Dorsett is a better WR than Gordon? 

I expect both to get a heavy target share this week.  Look at the roster.  There isn't anybody else if Edelman doesn't play. 

Am I saying he's better? Ehhh, no. But their efficiency within the offense is a lot closer than people think. Dorsett seems to always know where to be right now.

Edelman will likely play vs. Buffalo. Division game, both undefeated, etc.

Dorsett in three-wide sets is more than enough to make Dorsett fantasy viable. 

I'm just spitballing, really. Gordon is a different type of receiver than Dorsett because of his size, IMHO. 

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5 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Am I saying he's better? Ehhh, no. But their efficiency within the offense is a lot closer than people think. Dorsett seems to always know where to be right now.

Edelman will likely play vs. Buffalo. Division game, both undefeated, etc.

Dorsett in three-wide sets is more than enough to make Dorsett fantasy viable. 

I'm just spitballing, really. Gordon is a different type of receiver than Dorsett because of his size, IMHO. 

Oddly enough, I posted on this in the Sony Michel thread. There was a lengthy discussion about the running game and Michel. The premise was Michel wasn't doing anything and it was hurting the offense. The numbers showed the opposite.

Last year, with Michel in the game, he carried the ball like 86% of the time on those snaps. This year, his carry rate is down to about 60% of the time. He's still not a threat to catch the ball, but opponents have gone to stacking 8 men in the box and run blitzing when Michel enters the game.

Sure, most of the time Michel has gotten stuffed. But the times HE DOESN'T get the ball, NE has run play action instead. Most of the damage Dorsett has gotten has come when they went play action and Dorsett got to run free off the LOS. That's why he has had such a high catch rate and scored multiple TD's.

The issue I have with Dorsett is that in all his time in NE, he rarely sees more than 5 targets a game. That makes him TD dependent. A 3-40-0 day is nothing to write home about. The third receiver in NE historical has not been a viable fantasy option. The Pats have had pairs of guys with good numbers. Edelman and Gronk. Cooks and Gronk. Moss and Welker, But not usually three guys inthe same season.

If Edelman, Gordon, White, and Burkhead all play a full game, Dorsett will be unlikely to post consistent fantasy numbers. He will be very hit or miss. This past week, Edelman missed half the game, White missed the entire game, and Gordon missed some time with a hand / finger issue. Dorsett could see decent numbers with injuries to other players, but he's more of a fantasy depth piece than a fantasy starter IMO.

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6 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

Oddly enough, I posted on this in the Sony Michel thread. There was a lengthy discussion about the running game and Michel. The premise was Michel wasn't doing anything and it was hurting the offense. The numbers showed the opposite.

Last year, with Michel in the game, he carried the ball like 86% of the time on those snaps. This year, his carry rate is down to about 60% of the time. He's still not a threat to catch the ball, but opponents have gone to stacking 8 men in the box and run blitzing when Michel enters the game.

Sure, most of the time Michel has gotten stuffed. But the times HE DOESN'T get the ball, NE has run play action instead. Most of the damage Dorsett has gotten has come when they went play action and Dorsett got to run free off the LOS. That's why he has had such a high catch rate and scored multiple TD's.

The issue I have with Dorsett is that in all his time in NE, he rarely sees more than 5 targets a game. That makes him TD dependent. A 3-40-0 day is nothing to write home about. The third receiver in NE historical has not been a viable fantasy option. The Pats have had pairs of guys with good numbers. Edelman and Gronk. Cooks and Gronk. Moss and Welker, But not usually three guys inthe same season.

If Edelman, Gordon, White, and Burkhead all play a full game, Dorsett will be unlikely to post consistent fantasy numbers. He will be very hit or miss. This past week, Edelman missed half the game, White missed the entire game, and Gordon missed some time with a hand / finger issue. Dorsett could see decent numbers with injuries to other players, but he's more of a fantasy depth piece than a fantasy starter IMO.

I agree with all of this actually and overspoke when I said he was fantasy viable. That was just hortatory speaking on my part.

Dorsett you'll never know when you can dial him up for a start, really. I'm waiting, however, on something to go on to where he's pressed into service. 

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10 minutes ago, Soulfly3 said:

watch the game and see the types of catches gordon is making v dorsett

I did watch the game -- I'm a Jets fan, sadly. I saw a really nice catch along the sideline. The past two weeks? I've seen a few drops.

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18 minutes ago, Soulfly3 said:

watch the game and see the types of catches gordon is making v dorsett

I get that fantasy is a different animal and that 3 weeks is a limited sample size, but in PPR leagues Dorsett is currently WR 19 and Gordon is WR 48. Yes, I understand that things most likely will not remain that way, but the numbers so far side with Dorsett. Your come back will almost certainly be that the AB game shouldn't count because Gordon took a back seat . . . but so did Dorsett. Edelman is currently WR 27 (and missed the second half last week). Had Edeman played out the game against the Jets, he most likely would be ranked in the WR 12 range right now.

IMO, as currently constructed without people missing games the rest of the way, in PPR leagues, Edelman = WR 15 range, Gordon = WR 30 range, Dorsett = WR 40 range. Actual mileage may vary.

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1 hour ago, Anarchy99 said:

IMO, as currently constructed without people missing games the rest of the way, in PPR leagues, Edelman = WR 15 range, Gordon = WR 30 range, Dorsett = WR 40 range. Actual mileage may vary.

I think this is a fair assessment for ROS overall. But how about for the Pats stretch run after the bye? Assume no injuries. Do you see this split remaining as so during that phase of the season?

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11 minutes ago, LawFitz said:

I think this is a fair assessment for ROS overall. But how about for the Pats stretch run after the bye? Assume no injuries. Do you see this split remaining as so during that phase of the season?

Not sure what you mean by the stretch run. Last 8 games? Last 4 games?

Let's say the last half of the season. Changes compared to now: Watson back, OL injury issues mostly resolved, Harry back, and Gronk possible back.

Outcomes: a TE and healthier OL helps Michel and the running game. They didn't draft Harry in the first round to watch from the sidelines, so that probably hurts Gordon some and Dorsett some. At some point you would think they have to start throwing the ball to Michel, don't they? That won't make a huge difference to the WR's, but those are targets the WR's won't get. I have my doubts about Gronk coming back, but that would definitely take away from the WR's. If we are assuming full health, Burkhead has carved out a bit of a roll receiving as well (he hasn't been healthy much in his time in NE). I still think there are more weapons than there are footballs to go around.

The other factor is that NE has all their tougher games pretty much in a row (CLE, BAL, PHI, DAL, HOU, KC, and then BUF a couple of week after that).It's unlikely that the defense can continue on cruise control for those opponents, so NE may have to open up the offense more because they won't be holding teams to single digits by then.

I still think the team would prefer to have Brady doing less and the running game doing more, but that one is a strategy which they may not be able to utilize. We don't really know if they will be able to run the ball, if the OL really will be healthier, if Gronk is coming back, and if they can be as dominant running the ball down people's throats like they did last year. I would tend to say they won't be as good rushing down the stretch as they were last year.

Bottom line, I think NE will have to pass more than they did last season . . . but that doesn't mean that all those passes will go to Edelman, Gordon, and Dorsett. If we are assuming no injuries, that means Watson and Harry will be added (and potentially Gronk). If all those guys get added in without anyone coming out of the mix, I would have to conclude the other WR's will see their numbers / targets go down some.

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13 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

Not sure what you mean by the stretch run. Last 8 games? Last 4 games? ...

Bottom line, I think NE will have to pass more than they did last season . . . but that doesn't mean that all those passes will go to Edelman, Gordon, and Dorsett. If we are assuming no injuries, that means Watson and Harry will be added (and potentially Gronk). If all those guys get added in without anyone coming out of the mix, I would have to conclude the other WR's will see their numbers / targets go down some.

I was referring to this stretch: 

10 BYE, 11Nov 17 @Phi, 12Nov 24 Dal, 13Dec 1@Hou, 14Dec 8 KC, 15Dec 15 @Cin, 16Dec 21 Buf 

Fully agree on your bolded line.

I'll be shocked if Gronk comes back. And that absolutely isn't happening unless they get salary cap relief from the Tony Clown contract. Will they this year? I think that relief probably doesn't come until next year, especially if a legal battle over guaranteed monies emerges.

Is Ben Watson going to take meaningful targets from Gordon? IF Watson has any juice left, it seems like it would cut more into the Edelman, White and SexRex piece of the pie.

If Gordon is producing and healthy, I can't see Harry as anything more than his backup late season. How is a rookie with inferior skills and very little practice time going to be featured in a highly competitive stretch of games that they will need to win to keep pace with the Chieftans? Gordon gets hurt or bends off-field, and fine, Harry becomes his immediate substitute, but otherwise, I can't see it. No way Belly is going to take Gordon off the field during these critical games just to avoid having his "first round (WR) watch from the sidelines." Not happening except in case of blowouts, which may or may not happen against Cin/Buf and probably won't against the other four.

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1 minute ago, LawFitz said:

I was referring to this stretch: 

10 BYE, 11Nov 17 @Phi, 12Nov 24 Dal, 13Dec 1@Hou, 14Dec 8 KC, 15Dec 15 @Cin, 16Dec 21 Buf 

Fully agree on your bolded line.

I'll be shocked if Gronk comes back. And that absolutely isn't happening unless they get salary cap relief from the Tony Clown contract. Will they this year? I think that relief probably doesn't come until next year, especially if a legal battle over guaranteed monies emerges.

Is Ben Watson going to take meaningful targets from Gordon? IF Watson has any juice left, it seems like it would cut more into the Edelman, White and SexRex piece of the pie.

If Gordon is producing and healthy, I can't see Harry as anything more than his backup late season. How is a rookie with inferior skills and very little practice time going to be featured in a highly competitive stretch of games that they will need to win to keep pace with the Chieftans? Gordon gets hurt or bends off-field, and fine, Harry becomes his immediate substitute, but otherwise, I can't see it. No way Belly is going to take Gordon off the field during these critical games just to avoid having his "first round (WR) watch from the sidelines." Not happening except in case of blowouts, which may or may not happen against Cin/Buf and probably won't against the other four.

Any target to PLAYER Z is not a target for PLAYER X. Any running play to PLAYER Y is not a target for PLAYER X. Watson will see more targets than the 1.6 targets they have devoted to the TE spot in the early going. I suspect that NE is going to have to pass more to move the ball in the stretch you referenced. So they may go with Edelman, Gordon, Dorsett, and Harry. If Harry is the one with the mismatch or the guy that got left open, yeah, Brady will throw him the ball. Gordon isn't coming off the field for Harry . . . but another skill position player could.

I stand resolute that if Edelman is fully healthy (I know . . . those two words are hard to type in a row when discussing Edelman), then he still sees his 10-12 targets a game and everyone else sees a piece of the remaining pie. In the scenario you framed (everyone healthy), then the running game should be improved and they may chose to run more to play keep away against the teams with strong offenses.

With regard to the Chieftans, it would not shock me if NE unleashed a 4 receiver set with White in the backfield (or 3 receivers and White and Rex) and ran no huddle the entire first half to tire out the KC defense. It also wouldn't shock me if they went the other way and ran the ball 15 times and took 12 minutes off the clock. Make no mistake, the defense was constructed to deal with teams like the Chiefs and Rams. I'd like to think that the NE defense will get more stops than the KC defense would. But we will have to see how that works out.

As for the salary cap hit for Brown, they are stuck with that on the books for this year. They basically took a $5.5 million cap hit this year and $4.5 million next year. They will figure that out in the off season, and if they win their case they will get cap relief in 2020 not 2019. If they end up owing AB nothing, then his $4.5 million cap charge from next year will fall off the books and they will get a $5.5 million credit next year for the cap hold they took this year.

As for Gronk, he was due $9 million this year. If he came back at the halfway point, he would be due $4.5 million. They have $6.7 million in cap room left, so they could afford to bring him back. They also could extend or rework contract to free up additional cap space if they needed to.

 

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18 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

As for Gronk, he was due $9 million this year. If he came back at the halfway point, he would be due $4.5 million. They have $6.7 million in cap room left, so they could afford to bring him back. They also could extend or rework contract to free up additional cap space if they needed to.

Thanks for the rest of your response. I hadn't considered Harry on the field with Gordon on the same time. Having trouble personally buying into that as probable, but I suppose it's possible, especially in shootout games. Even moreso if they cannot get any viable TE production.

As for the above quote, OTC and SportTrac are showing conflicting data. Not sure which is right, but OTC shows only $1mm in remaining cap.

https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/new-england-patriots/

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/new-england-patriots/cap/

Plus Gronk has intimated a few times that for the right money he'd play. Wouldn't that suggest that he'd want more than the amount owed to him this year, especially if we're prorating for a partial season?

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5 minutes ago, LawFitz said:

Thanks for the rest of your response. I hadn't considered Harry on the field with Gordon on the same time. Having trouble personally buying into that as probable, but I suppose it's possible, especially in shootout games. Even moreso if they cannot get any viable TE production.

As for the above quote, OTC and SportTrac are showing conflicting data. Not sure which is right, but OTC shows only $1mm in remaining cap.

https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/new-england-patriots/

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/new-england-patriots/cap/

Plus Gronk has intimated a few times that for the right money he'd play. Wouldn't that suggest that he'd want more than the amount owed to him this year, especially if we're prorating for a partial season?

Not sure which one is more accurate. I would guess Spotrac, but who knows? As for Gronk, as you said, if it's been all about the money than he will want more money than he was due to make. Depending upon how the team is doing, maybe they budge, maybe they don't. I still think BB told Gronk and Rosenhaus that their last and final offer was X 6 months ago and if he is interested in coming back for that amount to give them a call. But that was BEFORE the Antonio Brown fiasco, and who knows how frosty the Bill and Drew bromance is doing at the moment.

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Gordon has 14 targets of 10 yds and less, 10/14 on those and then he is 3 out of 5 on anything over 10 yards...5 targets over 10 yds in 3 games...that's tough to digest but it's true. 

Last week it looks like 10 of his 11 targets came after the 1st Q and his 3 longest targets didn't come until after 5:00 left in the 3rd Q...tighter the games or the longer they hang in the balance the more Gordon typically will see targets. 

Watson further muddies the waters but I'm not sure how many targets he will garner each game. 

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5 minutes ago, Ministry of Pain said:

Gordon has 14 targets of 10 yds and less, 10/14 on those and then he is 3 out of 5 on anything over 10 yards...5 targets over 10 yds in 3 games...that's tough to digest but it's true. 

Last week it looks like 10 of his 11 targets came after the 1st Q and his 3 longest targets didn't come until after 5:00 left in the 3rd Q...tighter the games or the longer they hang in the balance the more Gordon typically will see targets. 

Watson further muddies the waters but I'm not sure how many targets he will garner each game. 

Against the Jets . . . no White, no Edelman in the second half, as you said no Watson, no Harry, and no running game. White will be back immediately (wasn't hurt . . . wife was in labor), Edelman was at practice today (expected to play this week), Watson back next week, Harry due back Week 9, OL will get better / healthier, and running game will improve.

Gordon will see targets when there aren't other guys on the field to take targets. Gordon saw a lot more looks without White or Edelman. IMO, NE will get to a point in the schedule where their defense can't just be on cruise control for them to win. So yes, there will be more passing . . . but not sure that equates to more passing concentrated on Gordon . . . it just means they will have to open the playbook more and put the ball in the air more. As for Watson, NE has thrown the ball to their TE's 5 times in 3 games. I am guessing he will see more targets than 1.6 per game. The first month of the season is always a work in progress offensively. In many ways they are ahead of the curve compared to prior years.

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