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***Official*** 2012 FBG Subscriber Contest Thread (2 Viewers)

'Organized Chaos said:
'QuizGuy66 said:
Lots of bugs to work out, OC :)Do you have INTs as -2 (instead of -1) - I noticed Locker is 15.8 on your site but I think it's 14.8My entry seems to be missing Jonathan Baldwin (who is on my team)Cincinnati's Punt Return touchdown wasn't included.Nugent's field goals look like they weren't included at all.-QG
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Thanks QG - Looking into these. I confirmed int's are -1, so thats not it, I will find out where it's off. Yeah, it looks like I need to make some adjustments to grab the defensive scoring and some of the kickers scores. Thanks for the specific examples, it will help me work through it.
'JoeSteeler said:
Anyone have an estimated cutoff?
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I wont be able to do anything with the cutoff until I get these bugs worked out.
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They tweaked the rules this year, OC - INTs are now -2.-QG
 
'Utter Chaos said:
'Organized Chaos said:
'QuizGuy66 said:
Lots of bugs to work out, OC :)

Do you have INTs as -2 (instead of -1) - I noticed Locker is 15.8 on your site but I think it's 14.8

My entry seems to be missing Jonathan Baldwin (who is on my team)

Cincinnati's Punt Return touchdown wasn't included.

Nugent's field goals look like they weren't included at all.

-QG
Click to expand...
Thanks QG - Looking into these. I confirmed int's are -1, so thats not it, I will find out where it's off.

Yeah, it looks like I need to make some adjustments to grab the defensive scoring and some of the kickers scores.

Thanks for the specific examples, it will help me work through it.
Click to expand...
According to the rules this year, interceptions are -2.
Player Scoring (QB, RB, WR, TE)

Passing TDs = 6 points

Interceptions Thrown = -2 points

Rushing TD = 6 points

Receiving TD = 6 points

Passing Yardage = .05 points per yard

Rushing Yardage = .10 points per yard

Receiving Yardage = .10 points per yard

Receptions for RB = 1.0 points

Receptions for WR = 1.0 points

Receptions for TE = 1.5 points

No points scored for 2 point conversions
Click to expand...
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:wall: Ahh, it was -1 last year and I read that wrong. This has been adjusted and Locker (and other QB's) will show the correct score. Thanks.
 
161.90 + (Ryan - 14.80) + (J Jones -8.7/9.2) + (H Douglas - 8.7/9.2) + (Prater - 12)

Feel less stupid for taking 3 TE now with Hernandez getting hurt.

Good luck to those sweating the Turk!

-QG

 
176 with Prater (-6.00) to go.

Hernandez and Gates being hurt killing me. So's Donald Brown. And the inconceivable choice to drop Benson and Vereen for Amendola and a kicker...looking better. A bit.

 
Will large roster teams return to the top of the mountain with so many big name players with poor showings/injuries this week?

B. Marshall 4.4

J. Charles 5.2

A. Johnson 5.1

L. Fitzgerald 1.4

A. Hernandez 0

A. Bradshaw 1.6

D. McFadden 6.1

D. Bryant 4.7

S. Jackson 5.8

S. Greene 2.3

Chris Johnson 4.8

Add in a big number of players between 7-12 points who usually average much higher and the guys who didn't even play today (Gates, Garcon, F. Jackson, Mathews, ect).

 
Ugh, scary week for me with Blackmon/Fitz/Gates/Marshall/Garcon all having goose eggs or terrible weeks...Amendola may have saved me.

Stafford

Benson

McCoy

Ridley

Amendola

Julio Jones??

Marshall(ouch)

M. Bennett

3 kickers

3 Ds

:unsure:

 
'Fiddles said:
Spiller owner :pickle:
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One of my last moves was dropping him. :bag: For Reggie Bush :unsure:173.6 with JJones - 6.1, Prater - 13, Dreesen - 6.8. Thanks Amendola, Bush, Benson and to a lesser degree Baldwin. Might make up for McFadden, Gates, Marshall, and Dez.
 
132.85 with McGahee (-5.20) and Gonzalez (-6.90).

Projected cut...137.10.

:no:

 
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OC, you need to update your weekly cutoffs, they've changed since last year as well. It seems you're calculating the current cut line based on team # 10,000, but we're actually only cutting down to 11,000 teams this week.

By my calculations that makes the actual current cutoff 130.60. To be clear, this is not a PROJECTED CUTOFF, this is the ACTUAL CUTOFF RIGHT NOW. If there was no game tonight, the cutoff would be exactly 130.60. However, because there is a game tonight, this number will move up. How much it will move is anyone's guess. If everyone in the game tonight scores exactly what David Dodds has them projected to score, then the cut line would jump up to 145.30, so consider that a rough ballpark for what could happen tonight.

So if you're currently at 150+, you're almost certainly going to advance to next week.

If you're in that 130-150 range, and you have no players left, you should be hoping for a low-scoring game tonight.

If you're currently below 130.60 and you don't have any players left, you are definitely eliminated this week, pending any last-minute stat corrections, and assuming the scoring on OC's site is currently accurate. Both of those things can change, so if you're close to the current cutoff, there's a chance that something might get corrected and you'll actually survive. But I wouldn't be too optimistic.

 
My goose is so cooked. :cry: Currently sitting at 94 points. I do have Ryan, Julio, and McGahee left, but don't think that's gonna be enough. Right now my flex score is 4.70 (from Dez) and current QB score is 15.60 from Flacco. Then McGahee would have to beat Murray's 11.50 to qualify. :bag:

Thanks for showing up studs! (CJ, Murray, Hernandez, Garcon, Torrey Smith, Dez...)

 
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safe for another week. Sitting at 151.4 and still have:

Ryan (-14.80) + Julio Jones (-7.10) + Atlanta D (-3.00) + Prater (-13)

Nice weeks from Foster, Benson, V Davis, LaFell and Suisham. Lucky to have survived the DMC terrible game.

 
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146.2 with Decker -10.4. :unsure: . I guess my strategy of going with Hernandez and Gates as my only two TE's was not a good one.

 
After my #1 RB (McFadden) and #1 WR (Marshall) put up dud and my #1 TE (Gates) was out, I thought I was in trouble. And then Amendola, Hanson & The Bills D went bananas and got me up to 191.15.

Still nervous basically only having two RB's right now with Fred Jackson hurt and David Wilson in the doghouse.

 
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Improved from 200.05 last week to 200.10 this week with a slight chance of going higher depending on Peyton (-32.50), Prater (-15) and Denver D (-11)

 
'Mr. Soup Nazi said:
David Wilson in the doghouse.
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Yeah, Wilson's looking like a waste of $9 at this point, even if Bradshaw gets hurt.But it's a long season. I'm still holding out hope that he can contribute at some point. He's one of those guys that could potentially do nothing forever, and then suddenly find himself in a starting role late in the season and carry your team through the final 250.
 
'Ignoratio Elenchi said:
OC, you need to update your weekly cutoffs, they've changed since last year as well. It seems you're calculating the current cut line based on team # 10,000, but we're actually only cutting down to 11,000 teams this week.

By my calculations that makes the actual current cutoff 130.60. To be clear, this is not a PROJECTED CUTOFF, this is the ACTUAL CUTOFF RIGHT NOW. If there was no game tonight, the cutoff would be exactly 130.60. However, because there is a game tonight, this number will move up. How much it will move is anyone's guess. If everyone in the game tonight scores exactly what David Dodds has them projected to score, then the cut line would jump up to 145.30, so consider that a rough ballpark for what could happen tonight.

So if you're currently at 150+, you're almost certainly going to advance to next week.

If you're in that 130-150 range, and you have no players left, you should be hoping for a low-scoring game tonight.

If you're currently below 130.60 and you don't have any players left, you are definitely eliminated this week, pending any last-minute stat corrections, and assuming the scoring on OC's site is currently accurate. Both of those things can change, so if you're close to the current cutoff, there's a chance that something might get corrected and you'll actually survive. But I wouldn't be too optimistic.
Click to expand...
You're right. I had the cutoff values in multiple places and needed to adjust one for the proper cutoff values. This has been adjusted and I am re-running the cutoff now. It's should take about 20 minutes or so and that will be displayed on the site.
 
'Organized Chaos said:
'Ignoratio Elenchi said:
OC, you need to update your weekly cutoffs, they've changed since last year as well. It seems you're calculating the current cut line based on team # 10,000, but we're actually only cutting down to 11,000 teams this week.

By my calculations that makes the actual current cutoff 130.60. To be clear, this is not a PROJECTED CUTOFF, this is the ACTUAL CUTOFF RIGHT NOW. If there was no game tonight, the cutoff would be exactly 130.60. However, because there is a game tonight, this number will move up. How much it will move is anyone's guess. If everyone in the game tonight scores exactly what David Dodds has them projected to score, then the cut line would jump up to 145.30, so consider that a rough ballpark for what could happen tonight.

So if you're currently at 150+, you're almost certainly going to advance to next week.

If you're in that 130-150 range, and you have no players left, you should be hoping for a low-scoring game tonight.

If you're currently below 130.60 and you don't have any players left, you are definitely eliminated this week, pending any last-minute stat corrections, and assuming the scoring on OC's site is currently accurate. Both of those things can change, so if you're close to the current cutoff, there's a chance that something might get corrected and you'll actually survive. But I wouldn't be too optimistic.
Click to expand...
You're right. I had the cutoff values in multiple places and needed to adjust one for the proper cutoff values. This has been adjusted and I am re-running the cutoff now. It's should take about 20 minutes or so and that will be displayed on the site.
Click to expand...
I'm going to see if I can integrate it, but MFL has a projected points feed that I can probably pull in and use that to project the cutoff. It'll take some work, but I'll see what I can do. It would be interesting to see how accurate it is.
 
'Ignoratio Elenchi said:
'Mr. Soup Nazi said:
David Wilson in the doghouse.
Click to expand...
Yeah, Wilson's looking like a waste of $9 at this point, even if Bradshaw gets hurt.But it's a long season. I'm still holding out hope that he can contribute at some point. He's one of those guys that could potentially do nothing forever, and then suddenly find himself in a starting role late in the season and carry your team through the final 250.
Click to expand...
Yup. I should have gone with one more solid RB, but the picks I would have taken (McGahee or Hillis) are more expensive than Wilson and have a limited upside (unless Charles were to get hurt).Biggest mistake was not just adding in McCluster for bye week safety. He was cheap enough I should have made it happen.
 
'Organized Chaos said:
'Organized Chaos said:
'Ignoratio Elenchi said:
OC, you need to update your weekly cutoffs, they've changed since last year as well. It seems you're calculating the current cut line based on team # 10,000, but we're actually only cutting down to 11,000 teams this week.

By my calculations that makes the actual current cutoff 130.60. To be clear, this is not a PROJECTED CUTOFF, this is the ACTUAL CUTOFF RIGHT NOW. If there was no game tonight, the cutoff would be exactly 130.60. However, because there is a game tonight, this number will move up. How much it will move is anyone's guess. If everyone in the game tonight scores exactly what David Dodds has them projected to score, then the cut line would jump up to 145.30, so consider that a rough ballpark for what could happen tonight.

So if you're currently at 150+, you're almost certainly going to advance to next week.

If you're in that 130-150 range, and you have no players left, you should be hoping for a low-scoring game tonight.

If you're currently below 130.60 and you don't have any players left, you are definitely eliminated this week, pending any last-minute stat corrections, and assuming the scoring on OC's site is currently accurate. Both of those things can change, so if you're close to the current cutoff, there's a chance that something might get corrected and you'll actually survive. But I wouldn't be too optimistic.
Click to expand...
You're right. I had the cutoff values in multiple places and needed to adjust one for the proper cutoff values. This has been adjusted and I am re-running the cutoff now. It's should take about 20 minutes or so and that will be displayed on the site.
Click to expand...
I'm going to see if I can integrate it, but MFL has a projected points feed that I can probably pull in and use that to project the cutoff. It'll take some work, but I'll see what I can do. It would be interesting to see how accurate it is.
Click to expand...
I've noticed MFL projections aren't all that great.
 
'Mr. Soup Nazi said:
'Organized Chaos said:
'Organized Chaos said:
'Ignoratio Elenchi said:
OC, you need to update your weekly cutoffs, they've changed since last year as well. It seems you're calculating the current cut line based on team # 10,000, but we're actually only cutting down to 11,000 teams this week.

By my calculations that makes the actual current cutoff 130.60. To be clear, this is not a PROJECTED CUTOFF, this is the ACTUAL CUTOFF RIGHT NOW. If there was no game tonight, the cutoff would be exactly 130.60. However, because there is a game tonight, this number will move up. How much it will move is anyone's guess. If everyone in the game tonight scores exactly what David Dodds has them projected to score, then the cut line would jump up to 145.30, so consider that a rough ballpark for what could happen tonight.

So if you're currently at 150+, you're almost certainly going to advance to next week.

If you're in that 130-150 range, and you have no players left, you should be hoping for a low-scoring game tonight.

If you're currently below 130.60 and you don't have any players left, you are definitely eliminated this week, pending any last-minute stat corrections, and assuming the scoring on OC's site is currently accurate. Both of those things can change, so if you're close to the current cutoff, there's a chance that something might get corrected and you'll actually survive. But I wouldn't be too optimistic.
Click to expand...
You're right. I had the cutoff values in multiple places and needed to adjust one for the proper cutoff values. This has been adjusted and I am re-running the cutoff now. It's should take about 20 minutes or so and that will be displayed on the site.
Click to expand...
I'm going to see if I can integrate it, but MFL has a projected points feed that I can probably pull in and use that to project the cutoff. It'll take some work, but I'll see what I can do. It would be interesting to see how accurate it is.
Click to expand...
I've noticed MFL projections aren't all that great.
Click to expand...
Agreed. But it would be something. I cant pull in FBG projections for multiple reasons.Do you guys think they're so far off that it's not worth it?

 
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'Organized Chaos said:
Do you guys think they're so far off that it's not worth it?
Click to expand...
I'm not familiar with MFL projections but they can't be that far off, can they? I figure any kind of projections, just to ballpark a projected final cutline, is probably better than nothing. Every Monday morning people will be in here asking for a projected cutline, it's good to have something just to give people an idea of how far the line might move. Drinen used to provide a Monday night sim but I don't know if he did that last year or planned to do it this year.
 
132.00 with Ryan (-24.3), Julio Jones (-7.3), and Prater (-4) still to go.

Will be close, but I should sneak through. Of course after saying that, Roddy White will go off for 3 TDs and ruin me.

 
162.15 with Ryan (-24.95), Quizz (-7.4), Decker (-10.3), and Bryant (-15) still sitting in the garage. Should make it through, but I'm gonna need more production from my RBs moving forward.

 
'Ignoratio Elenchi said:
'Organized Chaos said:
Do you guys think they're so far off that it's not worth it?
Click to expand...
I'm not familiar with MFL projections but they can't be that far off, can they? I figure any kind of projections, just to ballpark a projected final cutline, is probably better than nothing. Every Monday morning people will be in here asking for a projected cutline, it's good to have something just to give people an idea of how far the line might move. Drinen used to provide a Monday night sim but I don't know if he did that last year or planned to do it this year.
Click to expand...
Using my own projections, I have the cut line at 141.6. For reference thats with the following projections for key players:

Ryan 20.78 pts, Manning 22.1 points

McGahee 11.87, Turner 8.36, Rodgers 8.63

Thomas 15.74, Decker 13.16, White 13.1, Jones 14.86

Tamme 7.67, Gonzo 14.89

Prater 8.54, Bryant 8.69

Broncos 5.59, Falcons 5.15

These are averages over 2000 scenarios so please don't ask how McGahee is going to get that extra .07 points.

 
'Organized Chaos said:
'Mr. Soup Nazi said:
'Organized Chaos said:
'Organized Chaos said:
'Ignoratio Elenchi said:
OC, you need to update your weekly cutoffs, they've changed since last year as well. It seems you're calculating the current cut line based on team # 10,000, but we're actually only cutting down to 11,000 teams this week.

By my calculations that makes the actual current cutoff 130.60. To be clear, this is not a PROJECTED CUTOFF, this is the ACTUAL CUTOFF RIGHT NOW. If there was no game tonight, the cutoff would be exactly 130.60. However, because there is a game tonight, this number will move up. How much it will move is anyone's guess. If everyone in the game tonight scores exactly what David Dodds has them projected to score, then the cut line would jump up to 145.30, so consider that a rough ballpark for what could happen tonight.

So if you're currently at 150+, you're almost certainly going to advance to next week.

If you're in that 130-150 range, and you have no players left, you should be hoping for a low-scoring game tonight.

If you're currently below 130.60 and you don't have any players left, you are definitely eliminated this week, pending any last-minute stat corrections, and assuming the scoring on OC's site is currently accurate. Both of those things can change, so if you're close to the current cutoff, there's a chance that something might get corrected and you'll actually survive. But I wouldn't be too optimistic.
Click to expand...
You're right. I had the cutoff values in multiple places and needed to adjust one for the proper cutoff values. This has been adjusted and I am re-running the cutoff now. It's should take about 20 minutes or so and that will be displayed on the site.
Click to expand...
I'm going to see if I can integrate it, but MFL has a projected points feed that I can probably pull in and use that to project the cutoff. It'll take some work, but I'll see what I can do. It would be interesting to see how accurate it is.
Click to expand...
I've noticed MFL projections aren't all that great.
Click to expand...
Agreed. But it would be something. I cant pull in FBG projections for multiple reasons.Do you guys think they're so far off that it's not worth it?
Click to expand...
MFL projections are ridiculously high IMO.
 
'Cliff Clavin said:
MFL projections are ridiculously high IMO.
Click to expand...
They use Fantasy Sharks, and IIRC Fantasy Sharks had the last place projections for 2011 -- that was out of like 60 sets of projections. Even if they didn't quite manage to finish last they are really awful.FBG's Weeklies + MFL = big win IMO. They should make this happen.
 
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At 162+ with Manning (-5.5) still to go. Thankfully my WR corp pulled my under-productive, and high-costed, RB's out of the line of fire this week. Dwayne Bowe was my MVP this week and Jason Hanson put up a 20 spot to keep me in it.

Reggie Wayne has been a pleasant surprise and Ingram and Benson have been worth the $13 total I paid for them. Even Health Miller hasn't been bad for $7. On the other side of the coin, Jordy Nelson and all 3 of my Def/ST has come up pretty small.

 
'wdcrob said:
'Cliff Clavin said:
MFL projections are ridiculously high IMO.
Click to expand...
They use Fantasy Sharks, and IIRC Fantasy Sharks had the last place projections for 2011 -- that was out of like 60 sets of projections. Even if they didn't quite manage to finish last they are really awful.
Click to expand...
Their biggest problem is that they always project TD's in whole numbers rather than using decimals. Since it's hard to predict who will score in any given week, trying to do so will always make your projections less accurate than somebody who uses decimals.
 
19 player roster really let me down in a bonkers week 2.

125.5 with Ryan and Jacquizz left to go. Ryan is too owned so I assume I'd need a Quizz explosion to advance.

Rice, McCoy, Benson, Megatron and A. Brown had decent weeks but let down by Marshall and Hernandez.

K/D got me 16 on a week most combos went for 30+.

 
'Marauder said:
'wdcrob said:
'Cliff Clavin said:
MFL projections are ridiculously high IMO.
Click to expand...
They use Fantasy Sharks, and IIRC Fantasy Sharks had the last place projections for 2011 -- that was out of like 60 sets of projections. Even if they didn't quite manage to finish last they are really awful.
Click to expand...
Their biggest problem is that they always project TD's in whole numbers rather than using decimals. Since it's hard to predict who will score in any given week, trying to do so will always make your projections less accurate than somebody who uses decimals.
Click to expand...
So what if I pulled those projections in and lowered them, lets say 10%. What's the consensus, does anyone have a feeling if we lowered them X percent if they would come in at least close enough to get somewhat of a close prediction?
 
I've had a pretty poor showing the first 2 weeks, and am done at 151 for the week. Hopefully it'll be enough, I'm not sure.

Ironically, Hernandez being out probably wasn't the death knell, as Brandon Myers is way outperforming his $2 prices. :thumbup:

And Tannehill contributed with Stafford's low outing yesterday.

That said, I don't think I'm in for a long participation this year. Jamaal Charles and Torrey Smith are pretty much MIA.

 
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