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2012 Anarchy League 2 - The League of Champions (3 Viewers)

I'm going to break your heart Ref...

1. No reaching for a TE for me - hopefully the WR's and RB's I pick up while others are reaching will keep me in the game

2. This league won't be won in the first three rounds - it will be won in the middle/late rounds (like most others). How many of us in the League of Champions got "stuck" with Cam Newton last year?

 
There is a combination of factors that make TE so valuable in this format. One is that the league has been moving more towards the passing game and the TE position has benefited the most from this change happening over the past 8 or so years. Another is the 2pt/reception for TE making those receptions twice as valuable as a reception from a WR. The 3rd is position scarcity. Although the number of viable TE has gone up in recent years there is still a finite number of them available who will get 40 or more receptions (equal to 80 receptions from a WR) and 16 teams drafting who all need 2 but could play 3. Because of this the baseline for TE should be TE 30-36. With that as a baseline and only 32 NFL teams there will be some teams taking a huge disadvantage at the position and having both of their TE outscored by just one of the better ones, sometimes doubling those combined scores.

Some coaches identified this early on even when there were not as many viable TE available. But due to recent events I think it is understandable that their value has risen this much. I think most here like their chances to find competitive players from the WR and RB positions later in the draft who will not have a large a margin in scoring from the top players at their positions as there will be at the TE position.

 
'Biabreakable said:
There is a combination of factors that make TE so valuable in this format. One is that the league has been moving more towards the passing game and the TE position has benefited the most from this change happening over the past 8 or so years. Another is the 2pt/reception for TE making those receptions twice as valuable as a reception from a WR. The 3rd is position scarcity. Although the number of viable TE has gone up in recent years there is still a finite number of them available who will get 40 or more receptions (equal to 80 receptions from a WR) and 16 teams drafting who all need 2 but could play 3. Because of this the baseline for TE should be TE 30-36. With that as a baseline and only 32 NFL teams there will be some teams taking a huge disadvantage at the position and having both of their TE outscored by just one of the better ones, sometimes doubling those combined scores.Some coaches identified this early on even when there were not as many viable TE available. But due to recent events I think it is understandable that their value has risen this much. I think most here like their chances to find competitive players from the WR and RB positions later in the draft who will not have a large a margin in scoring from the top players at their positions as there will be at the TE position.
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this is pretty much EXACTLY what I said two posts ago..... :rolleyes: although you touched on the difference between TE/WR the part you didn't hit on is how the fact that RB's get 0 PPR really factors into TE's getting taken early....look how far the RB's fall in this format....so where you would normally see RB's being drafted, you are seeing TE's....some of the studs are still being taken, but even they are maybe being taken later than usual....and guys like Sproles, etc, who in a PPR format might be off the board by now, may see their ADP plummet in this format....add that to the fact that we are drafting "Team QB" (so injury risk is somewhat mitigated, even though Rodgers backups won't put up Rodgers type numbers, they will still put up numbers) TE and TeamQB will go early...while TE's usually always go alittle early, I called this TE frenzy happening in these leagues this year in November last year in the Anarchy Thoughts thread....
 
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Tremendously pleased to land Greg Jennings, WR Packers, at 2.10 to pair with 1st Rd Pick Ray Rice.

Earlier, I shared my thoughts on how I view the AFC Post Season picture, supporting my selection of Ray Rice at 1.07. In landing Rice, I believe I got a guy who'e going to play through the Super Bowl, and has a legitimate chance to lead the NFL in Total Yards From Scrimmage, which helps mitigate the PPR issue.

Here's how I view the NFC: NYGiants, Packers, Falcons, 49'ers win their Divisions. Cowboys, Eagles, Lions, Bears, Saints, Panthers duke-ing it out for 2 WC Berths. Packers represent the NFC in the Super Bowl vs the Ravens.

Jennings gives me another player who I expect to play through the Super Bowl, and who's the odds on favorite to statistically lead the League's most prolific overall Offense. There have been developments in Packer-land this off season that lead me to believe he's going to have a ridiculously solid season.

Was a little queasy leading up to this pick, but now that I got my guy, I feel like I'm off to a competitive start, and looking forward to 3.07!

RB Rice, Ravens

WR Jennings, Packers

 
'David Yudkin said:
Did Owen Daniels just go in the Top 25 picks? Really? Is Duckboy his mother?
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Time to comment but not enough time to pick? ;)Not a choice of TE for sake of TE, but more of a pick due to scarcity. I've got about 15 WRs that I rate about the same and about 10 RBs I rate about the same at this point. Daniels is the last top 10 TE on my board, and with knowing I'll get at least one more and likely 2 from my list, I took the position where the hard dropoff is coming. there will be equivalents at all the other positions available at 3.08.My system's gotten me 2 championships in the last 5 years :banned: , so something must be working :hophead:
 
'Biabreakable said:
Sorry for my posts redundancy Stinkin Ref. :lmao:
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it's not really an issue cause this really isn't rocket science to anyone in here.... ;) ....it's just a matter of how people chose to navigate it....and I think we will see the extremes (grabbing them early vs. saying #### it and just picking up a couple late)....I liked your baseline comment of 30-36 being drafted....cause while we know that 32 will be drafted...I think we may see as many as half the teams in some leagues use the third TE as the flex....so it really comes down to WHEN do they chose to fill that spot and their feelings on how much of an edge will a higher quality TE3 give them over a RB5 or a WR6 which will probably be one of their last picks....interesting dance to watch....
 
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'Stinkin Ref said:
'Biabreakable said:
There is a combination of factors that make TE so valuable in this format. One is that the league has been moving more towards the passing game and the TE position has benefited the most from this change happening over the past 8 or so years. Another is the 2pt/reception for TE making those receptions twice as valuable as a reception from a WR. The 3rd is position scarcity. Although the number of viable TE has gone up in recent years there is still a finite number of them available who will get 40 or more receptions (equal to 80 receptions from a WR) and 16 teams drafting who all need 2 but could play 3. Because of this the baseline for TE should be TE 30-36. With that as a baseline and only 32 NFL teams there will be some teams taking a huge disadvantage at the position and having both of their TE outscored by just one of the better ones, sometimes doubling those combined scores.Some coaches identified this early on even when there were not as many viable TE available. But due to recent events I think it is understandable that their value has risen this much. I think most here like their chances to find competitive players from the WR and RB positions later in the draft who will not have a large a margin in scoring from the top players at their positions as there will be at the TE position.
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this is pretty much EXACTLY what I said two posts ago..... :rolleyes: although you touched on the difference between TE/WR the part you didn't hit on is how the fact that RB's get 0 PPR really factors into TE's getting taken early....look how far the RB's fall in this format....so where you would normally see RB's being drafted, you are seeing TE's....some of the studs are still being taken, but even they are maybe being taken later than usual....and guys like Sproles, etc, who in a PPR format might be off the board by now, may see their ADP plummet in this format....add that to the fact that we are drafting "Team QB" (so injury risk is somewhat mitigated, even though Rodgers backups won't put up Rodgers type numbers, they will still put up numbers) TE and TeamQB will go early...while TE's usually always go alittle early, I called this TE frenzy happening in these leagues this year in November last year in the Anarchy Thoughts thread....
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The QB decision is interesting. The fact that everyone is assured to get 2 means you can afford to wait if you choose. You risk a big point dropoff but you will not be skunked. Goes against what you mention above.
 
'Duckboy said:
'David Yudkin said:
Did Owen Daniels just go in the Top 25 picks? Really? Is Duckboy his mother?
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Time to comment but not enough time to pick? ;)Not a choice of TE for sake of TE, but more of a pick due to scarcity. I've got about 15 WRs that I rate about the same and about 10 RBs I rate about the same at this point. Daniels is the last top 10 TE on my board, and with knowing I'll get at least one more and likely 2 from my list, I took the position where the hard dropoff is coming. there will be equivalents at all the other positions available at 3.08.My system's gotten me 2 championships in the last 5 years :banned: , so something must be working :hophead:
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Sorry. I've been in a meeting and will pick momentarily.As far as Danniels goes, in this league in particular, beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Daniels has ranked as TE15, 26, and 19 the past three seasons. You drafted him as TE10 and 25th overall. To you, he was worth it.Given that you won the league last year, I certainly can't fault whatever your strategy is, but I personally might not have taken him in that spot.
 
I have a weakness for the road less traveled...I had all sorts of competing ideas for this 3.07, and then I arrived home, checked the board, and there was Jordy Nelson, sitting there like a puppy in a pet shop window. Aaron Rodgers is going to complete a helluva lot of passes, for a helluva lot of TD's, in a helluva lot of games. Hard to resist scooping up more Packer production, and jeez, if I'm right about a Packers-Ravens Super Bowl...

...nah, never gonna happen, but it's nice to dream in July, and I've got something quirky about my Team to keep it interesting.

Hey, it's a 'League Of Champions' thing!

RB Rice

WR Jennings

WR Nelson

 
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Was really hoping to get Cruz, but he went one pick earlier to Ms. Daniels.

Happy to get Gresham though as I really see him as top ten TE candidate and so many of them are gone already.

 
is CalBear still traveling....?..in Italy......killing our pace at his spot each time.... :tumbleweed:

 
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alright...maybe it's just because I am on deck...and right around CalBear's picks....so my panties are in a bunch...but I think we have some extenuating circumstances here with CalBear....dude is traveling in Italy and has already indicated that the internets could be a problem for him....we have no idea of his return or if when he signed up for this he knew he would be traveling across the ocean in another country...I know we started early so he gets a hall pass on the 36 hours we waited for his first pick since that was before the draft was even supposed to start...but we did wait 30 hours for his second pick which was after the scheduled start day and now we have surpassed the 12 hour mark for the 3rd pick and the clock is still ticking.....if he was stateside or something, I might not say anything, but the combination of factors here seem to indicate that we do something since we have no idea how long we could be sitting here (since he is traveling abroad)....not trying to be a doosh and it is nothing personal against him, I'd say this about anybody, but if there was a time to maybe do something it would seem like all of these factors dictate that it happen here....I'm not in a huge hurry or anything, it's just that this seems like a situation where there is more involved then somebody just taking too long or timing out...been 30 plus hours since he checked in... :banned:

 
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I am swamped with things to do today. Let's see if Cal graces us with his presence and if not I will make a pick for him tonight. I emailed him, but if he has no Internet that won't make much difference.

 
'nittanylion said:
More time for you all to chastise me for taking Greg Jennings and Jordy Nelson!
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In other threads I pointed out that historically teams with 14+ wins have srtuggled the following year, and a fair amount of them missed the playoffs entirely. While it sounds crazy, it still has happened. Certainly you would think the Packers are positioned to be great next year, but a lot times things haven't worked out that way.
 
'nittanylion said:
More time for you all to chastise me for taking Greg Jennings and Jordy Nelson!
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I thought that they were both good picks, being on the same team could and should be a good thing since I believe that the Packes will be in the Playoffs.
 
think we are bordering on losing the interest and willingness to check in regularly by others at this point....this is crazy......hopefully a pick is made or CalBear just gets skipped and can make picks up later or something.....really dreading seeing the standstill happen again at his next pick after the turn....my vote would be that this pick and his next pick are made as soon as he is up.....at least then it will be awhile before his next turn comes up....it will take very little time to look at his roster and then just use ADP for his next two picks with some positional consideration.....at this point I don't think he could ##### about it.....sorry to be "that guy"

 
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I picked for CalBear, but I find it a bit odd that NO ONE predrafted even one pick in the day that we've been waiting.

 
'Stinkin Ref said:
think we are bordering on losing the interest and willingness to check in regularly by others at this point....this is crazy......hopefully a pick is made or CalBear just gets skipped and can make picks up later or something.....really dreading seeing the standstill happen again at his next pick after the turn....my vote would be that this pick and his next pick are made as soon as he is up.....at least then it will be awhile before his next turn comes up....it will take very little time to look at his roster and then just use ADP for his next two picks with some positional consideration.....at this point I don't think he could ##### about it.....sorry to be "that guy"
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Seriously, no pre-draft when one pick away for 24 hours?
 
'Stephen Holloway said:
'Stinkin Ref said:
think we are bordering on losing the interest and willingness to check in regularly by others at this point....this is crazy......hopefully a pick is made or CalBear just gets skipped and can make picks up later or something.....really dreading seeing the standstill happen again at his next pick after the turn....my vote would be that this pick and his next pick are made as soon as he is up.....at least then it will be awhile before his next turn comes up....it will take very little time to look at his roster and then just use ADP for his next two picks with some positional consideration.....at this point I don't think he could ##### about it.....sorry to be "that guy"
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Seriously, no pre-draft when one pick away for 24 hours?
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yeah predicted I get that comment after my post....I guess a smart ### response would be...."I kept having too much time to keep changing my mind".....sorry about the wait...whatever dude... :banned:
 
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An active person doesn't need to pre-draft :P

Either way, no biggie. Hopefully Calbear is back soon. I agree that he could probably care less about a fantasy draft right now, and I don't think any of us would blame him. ;) If he knew

this was starting though, he probably should have given David a heads up or stepped out for this year, imo.

 
I rarely pre-draft because I check frequently, but when you are waiting and waiting and waiting and all you have to do is pick two players, then it makes a lot of sense to pre-draft.

No big deal either way as Ref checks frequently and did pick quickly. Just saying the next guy or two had plenty of time to analyze between very few players to make a choice.

Carry on............... :popcorn:

 
Yudkin has been on the clock for awhile in both 1 and 2....I pm's and emailed some time ago...hope he's ok...

 
'Fiddles said:
'Stinkin Ref said:
Yudkin has been on the clock for awhile in both 1 and 2....I pm's and emailed some time ago...hope he's ok...
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he took harvin in league 2 at 643. hes otc in league 1
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noticed that...whats weird is each league shows he hasn't been "active" for over 2 hours....so not sure how he made the pick in league 2....and no matter what, not sure why he didn't check the other one as well..... :confused:when I emailed him...told him he was up in both
 
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You do realize that these are his leagues and he is watching over all of them.

Suggest that patience would be rewarded here

 
Sorry. Thought I picked in both leagues before I left but didn't hit submit before I went to dinner. That turned out to be exciting in its own right, as I got nailed by a flying metal spatula at a Japanese steak house. I'm fine, as I managed to deflect it before it would have nailed me in the face. At least we got a free meal out of it.

 
'Stephen Holloway said:
You do realize that these are his leagues and he is watching over all of them.Suggest that patience would be rewarded here
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not sure what this means....????....nobody was complaining or anything...it was just a little unusual that he was otc in both leagues but only made a pick in one.....and as he explained there was a legitimate reason for us to find it a little confusing...he thought he picked in both leagues...stephen it is almost like you are looking for things to try and start crap about....get enough of that in real life from other people....don't need it in here.....chill out dude.... :banned:
 
At some point, I'd like to start a philosophical discussion about positional runs.

Everyone in this particular Anarchy League is a longtime vet. No guppies here. There's a large group of us that have competed in the Survivor Leagues since their inception and every one of those Leagues is full of veteran players who are savvy drafters.

One of the most solid axioms of drafting is 'don't get caught up in positional runs once you see them starting; instead, rather, scoop up the value that falls as a result of them.'

Yet it seems they happen anyway, no matter the quality of the assembled talent in the Draft Room.

One could argue that extending a run is a strategic decision, I suppose, but in a 'the chicken or the egg' hypothetical, if you know everyone in the Draft Room is a respectable veteran drafter, what's the point of being part of extending a run if, by extension, you know that the other Drafters should be savvy enough to scoop up the value you are knocking down to them, rather than following along, and pushing that value back to you?

These are the kinds of things I ponder when I don't get much sleep. I'm in the middle of a boatload of LOOOONG days. :loco:

 
4.10, 5.07: TMQB Texans, Antonio Brown, WR Steelers

Waited a little on QB, and missed out on Giants, Falcons and Steelers, but nailed an Anarchy 'poor man's version' with the Texans. I'd be tremendously surprised if the Texans don't run away with the AFC South, which means an Automatic Berth into the Post Season, so at least one extra game. I like Schaub and Yates as efficient QB's who will limit the turnovers, and Foster opens up the play action, and it finally looks like the Texans are building a stable of young complimentary talent to AJ...

Brown is a PPR target machine, and even if he regresses a bit in that department, it's still too many targets not to predict he can progress in his TD percentage. I think Antonio Brown and Jeremy Maclin are basically twins. You hear plenty about Mike Wallace and DeSean Jackson, but Brown and Maclin are the true #1's on their respective Teams.

QB Texans

RB Rice

WR Jennings, Nelson, A.Brown

 
When the league's scoring rules are established in such a way that the value for each position is more equitable, then the need to either start or participate in a position run is decreased.

In these leagues, the quarterback scoring is very high. Fifteen of the top thirty scorers were team quarterback so on one hand it is really beneficial to have one of the top guys there. On the other hand there is a pool of only 32 and with the team quarterback set-up, you can't be blocked and are guaranteed to have two.

Similar decision with the tight ends and their 2 points per reception. The way the league is shifting, there are extrememly athletic guys (wide receivers really in some instances) that are dominating line-backers and receptions for their team and becoming truly dominant in this league. Combine that with the knowledge that you have to have two so they are premium. However, there seem to be more of these athletic types each year, so the supply is shifting slightly upward so how hard do the tight end dominating team push to horde the position? Four teams already have two, but nobody grabbed three yet.

Without any points per reception, the value of running backs is depressed. Add to that the direction again of the league and running back drafting slides. We are in the middle of the fifth round and only 14 have been taken. Will this be the position where a mid-draft run happens?

I really enjoy these drats each year, primarily because of the scoring through the playoff format that adds a tweek. However, the number of teams being 16 and the scoring and starting requirements also play a huge role in the challenge.

Thanks to David for starting these and thanks to our great group that mostly seem to hang together each year making it even better.

Hoping that the pace can be maintained today and through the weekend and everyone stay involved in the discussions.

 
Wow, did not realize the number of teams that still have zero running backs. Five teams have two, four have one and seven teams have yet to take an RB. That is very interesting to me.

One of the two RB teams is also a 2 TE team starting 1-2-0-2

 
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Close down the 5th round with a min-run on RBs - 5 out of 6 picks mid-round were RBs and two more at the end of the round. Also going heavier now on the WRs with 6 total on the round including 4 of the last 6.

Much slower pace on Friday and no comments at all

 
'Stephen Holloway said:
Close down the 5th round with a min-run on RBs - 5 out of 6 picks mid-round were RBs and two more at the end of the round. Also going heavier now on the WRs with 6 total on the round including 4 of the last 6.

Much slower pace on Friday and no comments at all
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might get yelled at..... ;)
 
lynch hard to pass on at beginning of 6th here...know quite a few RB's will go before my next pick and there won't be much left....went for the HR....word is his attorney says they are taking it all the way and that nothing will be decided before season ends...and commish can't hand down suspension until it's over....had a feeling Lynch would provide some value in these things this year but just never thought I would be the one to take a shot at it...

only real comment from doing 2 of these so far and being one of the guys that grabbed 2 TE's early and hoping to create a frenzy is that I'd give it a 50/50 on how it has shaken down....I definatley think some guys reached for some marginal TE's allowing some pretty good value to fall to those of us who locked up 2-3 top TE's early...not sure if it has been enough for others but I'm pretty happy the way it has worked out so far...some played along...others didn't...we'll see... :banned:

 
Just picked Greg Olsen early. One of those "I've gone to the well so many times, eventually it has to pay off" picks... Like my team so far, the guys that will determine the winners haven't been drafted yet...

 
'Stinkin Ref said:
and commish can't hand down suspension until it's over....
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This is inaccurate, as the commish can suspend him IF he wanted to (he doesn't need it to play out in court). If you remember Big Ben's suspension, Roethlisberger was not even arrested or charged with anything, let alone have anything played out in court.I don'e expect the league will do anything until things move along more, but if Goodell really wanted to lynch Lynch, he could if he really wanted to. For a lot of reasons, I don't think Lynch won't get suspended (most notably DUI falls under the substance abuse rules more than it does personal conduct rules). Lynch COULD be treated as a multiple time offended of the conduct code, and that COULD lead to a suspension. We'll have to wait and see how things unfold.
 
Risk or not, Lynch was #2 on my list for this round behind Shonn Greene and i got neither.

 
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