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Question about a way to quantify VBD (1 Viewer)

N

NightStalkers

Footballguy
I was fooling with the Rate my team app. and saw that it sometimes gives you a response saying that you have a 2.1 (or whatever)ppg advantage with these 2 rb's as your starters. Could footballguys come up with a system to rank it's players over/under the average? Say what is Graham worth over the TE6/7 in a 12 team league? Baseball teams use Wins against replacement (WAR)

Might be a cool way to show value for players in redraft or dynasty and maybe be easier to show trade values...

 
If there ever was/is a metric created thats analagous to WAR, it wouldnt be as useful for fantasy purposes. Baseball is, for all intents and purposes, an individual spirt disguised as a team sport. What i mean is that there is nothing player A can do for player B on his team over the course of an at bat to make him any better. Its still batter vs pitcher. In football this is not the case, as it is absolutely a team game and not only CAN player A impact player B, that relationship is crucial to success. For this reason, it would be much more difficult to quantify an individuals value as it pertains to wins, and even if it could be quantified, that value would not necessarily translate to statistics which is what we care about in fantasy.

 
'amicsta said:
If there ever was/is a metric created thats analagous to WAR, it wouldnt be as useful for fantasy purposes. Baseball is, for all intents and purposes, an individual spirt disguised as a team sport. What i mean is that there is nothing player A can do for player B on his team over the course of an at bat to make him any better. Its still batter vs pitcher. In football this is not the case, as it is absolutely a team game and not only CAN player A impact player B, that relationship is crucial to success. For this reason, it would be much more difficult to quantify an individuals value as it pertains to wins, and even if it could be quantified, that value would not necessarily translate to statistics which is what we care about in fantasy.
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Actually not looking for a wins analogy. Looking for ppg above/below the average. For instance in ppr Graham is forecast to score 269 points this year. Finley is forecast to score 186 at TE6. 83 points over the season or 5+ PPG. The more "Plus" value you have per your team starters the more likely you are to win. I think it would be helpful for trades and drafting values for FF. Another example would be Finley at TE6 and Keller at TE12. Finley is 26 points better (Dodds #'s) better than or Keller is -1.6ppg. Finley is adp of 60 Keller is 142. Do you take the WR3 with a Plus value of say 2.8 above the average WR3 or do you take Finley? Just looking for a way to quantify the VBD of a player in a numeric way.
 
'NightStalkers said:
'dgreen said:
:confused: VBD already is quantified.
Click to expand...
maybe i am missing something, where on the site is a way to give a numeric point value between drafting 2 players at their adp vs drafting 2 other players. Maybe there is a tool that i have not used before on the site...
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You can try calculating it with the DD. Put the first two players on one team, the 2nd two on another and compare the team strengths.
 
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I was actually just playing around with something like this (I think it's what you're asking). It tries to incorporate ADP, Projections, League Variables and position scarcity into a single number.

Basically what I did was come up with a baseline for each position, so for start 1 QB leagues it'd be 12, for start 2 RB leagues it'd be 24 and so on. It gets a little trickier when you start to consider Flex players.

So for each position (we'll ignore flex for now since it's complicated) you have what the VBD calls "Worst Starter". So to get a players value, you'd take his expect points and subtract out the average points of all the starters (if the player qualifies as a starter you don't include his points in average).

Quick example, say you're in a 4 person league, each team starts 1 QB. And let's say you have the top 4 QB (with total pts) as

Rodgers 400 pts

Brady 368 pts

Brees 360 pts

Stafford 340 pts

Rodgers value would be 400 - ((368+360+340)/3) = 44, I divide by 16 to get easier to manage numbers, and you get 2.75. Which means he gives your team a 2.75 pt advantage each week. The player with the highest average is "best available" at that particular position. But is the player with the highest value the best pick at a particular spot? To answer that question what I did was get a "Pick Value" which is simply the difference between this player's value and player with the highest value who should be available at your next pick (this is where ADP comes in). So Brady's value is 368 - ((400+360+340)/3) = 1.333 / 16 = .083 and let's assume that you could get Brady in the 2nd round, Rodgers "Pick Value" would be 2.67. This becomes the better number to compare across positions. Also you should note that the Advantage Number is static, while the Pick Value is dynamic.

It gets a lot more complicated when you can start more than 1 player at a position and even more so when you consider Flex. But I recently used this measure to do a mock draft and have to say I was pretty happy with the results.

 
I'm pretty sure you guys just described dynamic VBD, which is how the Draft Dominator operates. With the exception that you're converting the projected points for the year to PPG.

If you wanted to, you could multiply your PPG total by 16 for each player and plug those totals back into a set of projections to use with the DD that effectively worked on a PPG basis.

 
'wdcrob said:
I'm pretty sure you guys just described dynamic VBD, which is how the Draft Dominator operates. With the exception that you're converting the projected points for the year to PPG.If you wanted to, you could multiply your PPG total by 16 for each player and plug those totals back into a set of projections to use with the DD that effectively worked on a PPG basis.
Click to expand...
Thanks, I guess I was trying to re-invent the wheel there. I didn't realize DD used Dynamic VBD, because in the past I alway saw that the VBD number never changed. I now see that there's a DVBD column in the best value pick spot.
 
'Modog814 said:
'wdcrob said:
I'm pretty sure you guys just described dynamic VBD, which is how the Draft Dominator operates. With the exception that you're converting the projected points for the year to PPG.If you wanted to, you could multiply your PPG total by 16 for each player and plug those totals back into a set of projections to use with the DD that effectively worked on a PPG basis.
Click to expand...
Thanks, I guess I was trying to re-invent the wheel there. I didn't realize DD used Dynamic VBD, because in the past I alway saw that the VBD number never changed. I now see that there's a DVBD column in the best value pick spot.
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:thumbup: Glad that worked -- I don't do much redraft anymore, but thought that's how the DD was set up.
 
Along these same lines, I wonder if there is a way to incorporate a variable for players that have high end of season stats but accumulate them in a few games and lay down some stinkers along the way. To me, this was one of the greatest reasons to do upside down drafting in the past (when you used to BR able to get 3 top 10 or so WR with probably the 1st and 3rd best routinely).

The up and down nature of certain players is a pretty big deal and it's one of the reasons guys that are focal point RB (Foster/Rice/McCoy/MJD) are so valuable. But most RB are not that way.

It's the same concept of dinging a guy like McFadden for injury to me. Except it's more important because inconsistency while starting hurts your team more because you play them.

I'm not the biggest stat geek but there has to be a way I doing this

 
'chickensoup said:
Along these same lines, I wonder if there is a way to incorporate a variable for players that have high end of season stats but accumulate them in a few games and lay down some stinkers along the way. To me, this was one of the greatest reasons to do upside down drafting in the past (when you used to BR able to get 3 top 10 or so WR with probably the 1st and 3rd best routinely).The up and down nature of certain players is a pretty big deal and it's one of the reasons guys that are focal point RB (Foster/Rice/McCoy/MJD) are so valuable. But most RB are not that way.It's the same concept of dinging a guy like McFadden for injury to me. Except it's more important because inconsistency while starting hurts your team more because you play them.I'm not the biggest stat geek but there has to be a way I doing this
Click to expand...
There are a couple of ways to do that. In the DD Projections, you can go out to the weeks you want to change and increase the multiplier up from 1. The other would be to use the SOS, weighted toward those weeks (using factors of 1.2 to 2.0) to take advantage of weak SOS match-ups.
 
'GoBears84 said:
'chickensoup said:
Along these same lines, I wonder if there is a way to incorporate a variable for players that have high end of season stats but accumulate them in a few games and lay down some stinkers along the way. To me, this was one of the greatest reasons to do upside down drafting in the past (when you used to BR able to get 3 top 10 or so WR with probably the 1st and 3rd best routinely).The up and down nature of certain players is a pretty big deal and it's one of the reasons guys that are focal point RB (Foster/Rice/McCoy/MJD) are so valuable. But most RB are not that way.It's the same concept of dinging a guy like McFadden for injury to me. Except it's more important because inconsistency while starting hurts your team more because you play them.I'm not the biggest stat geek but there has to be a way I doing this
Click to expand...
There are a couple of ways to do that. In the DD Projections, you can go out to the weeks you want to change and increase the multiplier up from 1. The other would be to use the SOS, weighted toward those weeks (using factors of 1.2 to 2.0) to take advantage of weak SOS match-ups.
Click to expand...
I think he's talking about a way to quantify which guy is the one who puts up his 80/800/8 via 16 games of 5/50 and a TD every other versus a guy who puts up his 80/800/8 with 8 games of 1/10/0 and 8 games of 9/90/1Consider Fitgerald and Steve Smith who both a had a similar number of points last year.
Code: 
Fitz	Smith0 to 5	0	26 to 10	4	311 to 15	5	116 to 20	2	421 to 25	2	426 to 30	2	130+	1	1
Smith was more of a boom-bust player, while Fitz tended to get his points week in and week out. Variance of weekly points would be one way to measure it. Fitz had a variance of 60.9 while Smith had 87.5. With the smaller the number meaning the closer he usually comes to getting his weekly average.
 
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'Modog814 said:
'GoBears84 said:
'chickensoup said:
Along these same lines, I wonder if there is a way to incorporate a variable for players that have high end of season stats but accumulate them in a few games and lay down some stinkers along the way. To me, this was one of the greatest reasons to do upside down drafting in the past (when you used to BR able to get 3 top 10 or so WR with probably the 1st and 3rd best routinely).The up and down nature of certain players is a pretty big deal and it's one of the reasons guys that are focal point RB (Foster/Rice/McCoy/MJD) are so valuable. But most RB are not that way.It's the same concept of dinging a guy like McFadden for injury to me. Except it's more important because inconsistency while starting hurts your team more because you play them.I'm not the biggest stat geek but there has to be a way I doing this
Click to expand...
There are a couple of ways to do that. In the DD Projections, you can go out to the weeks you want to change and increase the multiplier up from 1. The other would be to use the SOS, weighted toward those weeks (using factors of 1.2 to 2.0) to take advantage of weak SOS match-ups.
Click to expand...
I think he's talking about a way to quantify which guy is the one who puts up his 80/800/8 via 16 games of 5/50 and a TD every other versus a guy who puts up his 80/800/8 with 8 games of 1/10/0 and 8 games of 9/90/1Consider Fitgerald and Steve Smith who both a had a similar number of points last year.
Code: 
Fitz	Smith0 to 5	0	26 to 10	4	311 to 15	5	116 to 20	2	421 to 25	2	426 to 30	2	130+	1	1
Smith was more of a boom-bust player, while Fitz tended to get his points week in and week out. Variance of weekly points would be one way to measure it. Fitz had a variance of 60.9 while Smith had 87.5. With the smaller the number meaning the closer he usually comes to getting his weekly average.
Click to expand...
Sure...but how do you guess those games? The most reliable way is to pick the weak teams and 'assume' that you'll have the biggest games against them. And variance is good, but you can't go solely based on it without taking into account average.Maybe you need to tier the players and then grab them based on lowest variance within the tier..
 
'wdcrob said:
Has anyone ever shown that variance is consistent for individual players from year to year?
Click to expand...
I looked briefly at RB's the past 2 years and there did seem to be some correlation but I didn't look into it deep enough to be conclusive.
 
'Modog814 said:
'GoBears84 said:
'chickensoup said:
Along these same lines, I wonder if there is a way to incorporate a variable for players that have high end of season stats but accumulate them in a few games and lay down some stinkers along the way. To me, this was one of the greatest reasons to do upside down drafting in the past (when you used to BR able to get 3 top 10 or so WR with probably the 1st and 3rd best routinely).The up and down nature of certain players is a pretty big deal and it's one of the reasons guys that are focal point RB (Foster/Rice/McCoy/MJD) are so valuable. But most RB are not that way.It's the same concept of dinging a guy like McFadden for injury to me. Except it's more important because inconsistency while starting hurts your team more because you play them.I'm not the biggest stat geek but there has to be a way I doing this
Click to expand...
There are a couple of ways to do that. In the DD Projections, you can go out to the weeks you want to change and increase the multiplier up from 1. The other would be to use the SOS, weighted toward those weeks (using factors of 1.2 to 2.0) to take advantage of weak SOS match-ups.
Click to expand...
I think he's talking about a way to quantify which guy is the one who puts up his 80/800/8 via 16 games of 5/50 and a TD every other versus a guy who puts up his 80/800/8 with 8 games of 1/10/0 and 8 games of 9/90/1Consider Fitgerald and Steve Smith who both a had a similar number of points last year.
Code: 
Fitz	Smith0 to 5	0	26 to 10	4	311 to 15	5	116 to 20	2	421 to 25	2	426 to 30	2	130+	1	1
Smith was more of a boom-bust player, while Fitz tended to get his points week in and week out. Variance of weekly points would be one way to measure it. Fitz had a variance of 60.9 while Smith had 87.5. With the smaller the number meaning the closer he usually comes to getting his weekly average.
Click to expand...
Yeah this is more of what I was talking about. Maybe a variable that shows how often a player meets a certain threshold of points for their end of year rankings of tiers. for example a WR1 should get you 15 points a game standard, how often are they meeting those numbers? (number pulled from my #### btw).
 
'chickensoup said:
'Modog814 said:
'GoBears84 said:
'chickensoup said:
Along these same lines, I wonder if there is a way to incorporate a variable for players that have high end of season stats but accumulate them in a few games and lay down some stinkers along the way. To me, this was one of the greatest reasons to do upside down drafting in the past (when you used to BR able to get 3 top 10 or so WR with probably the 1st and 3rd best routinely).The up and down nature of certain players is a pretty big deal and it's one of the reasons guys that are focal point RB (Foster/Rice/McCoy/MJD) are so valuable. But most RB are not that way.It's the same concept of dinging a guy like McFadden for injury to me. Except it's more important because inconsistency while starting hurts your team more because you play them.I'm not the biggest stat geek but there has to be a way I doing this
Click to expand...
There are a couple of ways to do that. In the DD Projections, you can go out to the weeks you want to change and increase the multiplier up from 1. The other would be to use the SOS, weighted toward those weeks (using factors of 1.2 to 2.0) to take advantage of weak SOS match-ups.
Click to expand...
I think he's talking about a way to quantify which guy is the one who puts up his 80/800/8 via 16 games of 5/50 and a TD every other versus a guy who puts up his 80/800/8 with 8 games of 1/10/0 and 8 games of 9/90/1Consider Fitgerald and Steve Smith who both a had a similar number of points last year.
Code: 
Fitz	Smith0 to 5	0	26 to 10	4	311 to 15	5	116 to 20	2	421 to 25	2	426 to 30	2	130+	1	1
Smith was more of a boom-bust player, while Fitz tended to get his points week in and week out. Variance of weekly points would be one way to measure it. Fitz had a variance of 60.9 while Smith had 87.5. With the smaller the number meaning the closer he usually comes to getting his weekly average.
Click to expand...
Yeah this is more of what I was talking about. Maybe a variable that shows how often a player meets a certain threshold of points for their end of year rankings of tiers. for example a WR1 should get you 15 points a game standard, how often are they meeting those numbers? (number pulled from my #### btw).
Click to expand...
I think people are a bit confused about what VBD is. VBD is a drafting method. VORP is simply a method for measuring or displaying established data. Meaning, you are either using projections or documented stats. If you want to see how often a player reaches his baseline VORP/Game - do it; look at the stats or do the projections. If you want to put a % on that - do it. As for injuries go - there is no exact science for quantifying risk in the equation. FBG simply subtracts a projected number of games form their projections. It sounds like people want a PPG VORP number, which can easily be calculated. That will tell you that DMC scored more per game than Ahmad Bradshaw, but Bradshaw scored move over the span of the season (or is projected to). But, if you are hoping for a specific number to tell you that Steve Smith is going to be more erratic than Larry Fitzgerald, I think you are doing yourself a disservice.
 
'GoBears84 said:
Sure...but how do you guess those games? The most reliable way is to pick the weak teams and 'assume' that you'll have the biggest games against them. And variance is good, but you can't go solely based on it without taking into account average.Maybe you need to tier the players and then grab them based on lowest variance within the tier..
Click to expand...
this is interesting.
 
'GoBears84 said:
Sure...but how do you guess those games? The most reliable way is to pick the weak teams and 'assume' that you'll have the biggest games against them. And variance is good, but you can't go solely based on it without taking into account average.Maybe you need to tier the players and then grab them based on lowest variance within the tier..
Click to expand...
You would have to be willing to do the projections. Variance is near useless. Hypothetical 5 game season:Smith: 20, 5 , 5, 10, 10 Baseline: 10; 60% compliance to baselineFitz: 10, 10, 15, 10, 5 Baseline: 10; 80% compliance to baselineBoth players score 50 points over the season; Fitz is safer. But - at what point are we being counter-productive? What value is projecting 1/12/0 games for Smith? We know they could happen, but what value does it do us to predict it will happen week 4 or 12? What value does it provide to predict he gets 14/200/2 in week 3? We're pulling straws.I don't think anyone needs a number to tell them Fitzgerald is incredibly consistant, and Vincent Jackson is not. Or that Sidney Rice is more of an injury risk than Denarius Moore.
 
'Concept Coop said:
I think people are a bit confused about what VBD is. VBD is a drafting method. VORP is simply a method for measuring or displaying established data. Meaning, you are either using projections or documented stats.

If you want to see how often a player reaches his baseline VORP/Game - do it; look at the stats or do the projections. If you want to put a % on that - do it.

As for injuries go - there is no exact science for quantifying risk in the equation. FBG simply subtracts a projected number of games form their projections.

It sounds like people want a PPG VORP number, which can easily be calculated. That will tell you that DMC scored more per game than Ahmad Bradshaw, but Bradshaw scored move over the span of the season (or is projected to).

But, if you are hoping for a specific number to tell you that Steve Smith is going to be more erratic than Larry Fitzgerald, I think you are doing yourself a disservice.
Click to expand...
Why? I totally disagree. I think it could be a valuable tool in determining not only which player you want on your team, but also in a who do you start case. Say you had to choose between Fitzgerald and Smith for one WR spot in a given week, if you believe you're team is better than your opponent, you'd want to start the less variant player. If you believe your opponent is better than you, you'd want to start the more variant player to have a better chance to close the gap.

 
'Modog814 said:
'Concept Coop said:
I think people are a bit confused about what VBD is. VBD is a drafting method. VORP is simply a method for measuring or displaying established data. Meaning, you are either using projections or documented stats.

If you want to see how often a player reaches his baseline VORP/Game - do it; look at the stats or do the projections. If you want to put a % on that - do it.

As for injuries go - there is no exact science for quantifying risk in the equation. FBG simply subtracts a projected number of games form their projections.

It sounds like people want a PPG VORP number, which can easily be calculated. That will tell you that DMC scored more per game than Ahmad Bradshaw, but Bradshaw scored move over the span of the season (or is projected to).

But, if you are hoping for a specific number to tell you that Steve Smith is going to be more erratic than Larry Fitzgerald, I think you are doing yourself a disservice.
Click to expand...
Why? I totally disagree. I think it could be a valuable tool in determining not only which player you want on your team, but also in a who do you start case. Say you had to choose between Fitzgerald and Smith for one WR spot in a given week, if you believe you're team is better than your opponent, you'd want to start the less variant player. If you believe your opponent is better than you, you'd want to start the more variant player to have a better chance to close the gap.
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You are taking something that is not an exact science, and making it less of one by trying to inroduce absolutes. In order for you to do what you propose, you would need to project every game - some 10+ weeks away - down to the very yard, catch, carry, touchdown etcetera.

Have fun predicting 2/24/0 week 3 and 9/180/2 week 4.

 
'Concept Coop said:
You are taking something that is not an exact science, and making it less of one by trying to inroduce absolutes. In order for you to do what you propose, you would need to project every game - some 10+ weeks away - down to the very yard, catch, carry, touchdown etcetera. Have fun predicting 2/24/0 week 3 and 9/180/2 week 4.
Click to expand...
What are you talking about? No one is trying to predict which specific week Smith is going to go for 2/24 or the week he's going to go for 9/180/2. What we're trying to capture is a risk/reward quotient that will better help build a team/lineup. I don't need to know if this is the week Smith puts up a dud, I want to know how likely is he to do so compared to another guy. It's actually based on past data, so projecting anything isn't really needed. In you're example, you're telling me you can expect Smith to score 10 + or - 10. While I can expect Fitzgerald to score 10 as well, but + or - 5. Now say for this week, both Smith and Fitzgerald are projected to score 10. If I feel like I'm a 10 point underdog to my opponent, or I need to make up some serious ground in the point chase, I might want to start the riskier Smith. If I'm a 10 point favorite to my oppenent, or I have a nice cushion in the point chase, I'd probably want to start the safer Fitzgerald.
 
'Modog814 said:
'Concept Coop said:
You are taking something that is not an exact science, and making it less of one by trying to inroduce absolutes. In order for you to do what you propose, you would need to project every game - some 10+ weeks away - down to the very yard, catch, carry, touchdown etcetera. Have fun predicting 2/24/0 week 3 and 9/180/2 week 4.
Click to expand...
What are you talking about? No one is trying to predict which specific week Smith is going to go for 2/24 or the week he's going to go for 9/180/2. What we're trying to capture is a risk/reward quotient that will better help build a team/lineup. I don't need to know if this is the week Smith puts up a dud, I want to know how likely is he to do so compared to another guy. It's actually based on past data, so projecting anything isn't really needed. In you're example, you're telling me you can expect Smith to score 10 + or - 10. While I can expect Fitzgerald to score 10 as well, but + or - 5. Now say for this week, both Smith and Fitzgerald are projected to score 10. If I feel like I'm a 10 point underdog to my opponent, or I need to make up some serious ground in the point chase, I might want to start the riskier Smith. If I'm a 10 point favorite to my oppenent, or I have a nice cushion in the point chase, I'd probably want to start the safer Fitzgerald.
Click to expand...
If you are basing off of past data - you're only going to find that the guy with the most targets/receptions is the safest. If you predict D. Moore and R. White to both accumulate 1,200, but White to do so with 150 targets, and Moore to do so with 100 targets - White is safer, Moore is riskier. If you need an exact number - use that. In order for you to use past data, outside of what I just described, you would need to pretend to know a lot of things that we simply don't. The number of variables that go into it are extensive. Is Vincent Jackson going to be more consistent? He will play different corners, who play in different systems. He will play in different stadiums with a different collection of weather/domes etcetera. He himself plays for a new team, with a new QB, new coach, new line, new teammates etcetera. Vincent Jackson is - with some exceptions - physically capable of performing the same week-to-week. In order for you to put a number on his consistency for 2012....well, I think it's nearly impossible and silly. He is riskier than Larry because his production relies more on each individual target than Larry's does. If I am wrong - please help me understand how. How would you come up with your number, and how would it be better than using target/reception total?
 
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'Concept Coop said:
'Modog814 said:
'Concept Coop said:
You are taking something that is not an exact science, and making it less of one by trying to inroduce absolutes. In order for you to do what you propose, you would need to project every game - some 10+ weeks away - down to the very yard, catch, carry, touchdown etcetera. Have fun predicting 2/24/0 week 3 and 9/180/2 week 4.
Click to expand...
What are you talking about? No one is trying to predict which specific week Smith is going to go for 2/24 or the week he's going to go for 9/180/2. What we're trying to capture is a risk/reward quotient that will better help build a team/lineup. I don't need to know if this is the week Smith puts up a dud, I want to know how likely is he to do so compared to another guy. It's actually based on past data, so projecting anything isn't really needed. In you're example, you're telling me you can expect Smith to score 10 + or - 10. While I can expect Fitzgerald to score 10 as well, but + or - 5. Now say for this week, both Smith and Fitzgerald are projected to score 10. If I feel like I'm a 10 point underdog to my opponent, or I need to make up some serious ground in the point chase, I might want to start the riskier Smith. If I'm a 10 point favorite to my oppenent, or I have a nice cushion in the point chase, I'd probably want to start the safer Fitzgerald.
Click to expand...
If you are basing off of past data - you're only going to find that the guy with the most targets/receptions is the safest. If you predict D. Moore and R. White to both accumulate 1,200, but White to do so with 150 targets, and Moore to do so with 100 targets - White is safer, Moore is riskier. If you need an exact number - use that. In order for you to use past data, outside of what I just described, you would need to pretend to know a lot of things that we simply don't. The number of variables that go into it are extensive. Is Vincent Jackson going to be more consistent? He will play different corners, who play in different systems. He will play in different stadiums with a different collection of weather/domes etcetera. He himself plays for a new team, with a new QB, new coach, new line, new teammates etcetera. Vincent Jackson is - with some exceptions - physically capable of performing the same week-to-week. In order for you to put a number on his consistency for 2012....well, I think it's nearly impossible and silly. He is riskier than Larry because his production relies more on each individual target than Larry's does. If I am wrong - please help me understand how. How would you come up with your number, and how would it be better than using target/reception total?
Click to expand...
how is projecting production different than projecting variability? isn't either one essentially a shot in the dark, largely based on past performance?
 
'moleculo said:
how is projecting production different than projecting variability? isn't either one essentially a shot in the dark, largely based on past performance?
Click to expand...
Sure, they are similar in that regard. But the act of projecting them is very different. I ask you: How would you determine how much more consistent Fitzgerald is going to be than Steve Smith - without using catch totals? You have to start projecting every game - and how logical is it to project individual games, especially games 10+ weeks out?Once you have that number, assuming you could project it comfortably - how is it any different than realizing that the more targets and catches you project, the more consistent you are predicting a player will be? Moore, Torrey, and Vincent are inconsistent because they rely greatly on every target. Larry Fitzgerald and Roddy White will be more consistent because they rely much less on each individual target.
 
'Concept Coop said:
If you are basing off of past data - you're only going to find that the guy with the most targets/receptions is the safest. If you predict D. Moore and R. White to both accumulate 1,200, but White to do so with 150 targets, and Moore to do so with 100 targets - White is safer, Moore is riskier. If you need an exact number - use that. In order for you to use past data, outside of what I just described, you would need to pretend to know a lot of things that we simply don't. The number of variables that go into it are extensive. Is Vincent Jackson going to be more consistent? He will play different corners, who play in different systems. He will play in different stadiums with a different collection of weather/domes etcetera. He himself plays for a new team, with a new QB, new coach, new line, new teammates etcetera. Vincent Jackson is - with some exceptions - physically capable of performing the same week-to-week. In order for you to put a number on his consistency for 2012....well, I think it's nearly impossible and silly. He is riskier than Larry because his production relies more on each individual target than Larry's does. If I am wrong - please help me understand how. How would you come up with your number, and how would it be better than using target/reception total?
Click to expand...
How is projecting Vincent Jackson's volatility with all those factors different from projecting his season with all those new factors? It's no more impossible to predict his yearly totals than it is to predict his variance. Noone suggested a way to even come up with a specific number. Someone simply asked if there was a way to quantify it. GoBears84 responded saying that you could do it in DD. I responded saying I don't think that was the question and tried to clarify the question. No body actually came up with a way to quantify it, probably because a) no one is really sure if it's meaningful, b) no one even knows if there is a relationship year to year. You might be right, the answer could be as simple as looking at Fantasy Pts per Target. My first thought was to simply take the variance of fantasy points scored over last seasons set of games. I looked briefly at it for RB's and think I saw some meaningful correlation year over year. But in the end, while I think it could be a useful tool in WDIS questions, I'm not sure it's worth calculating unless it was very simple to do so.
 
This tool seems to provide the point totals you're looking for. Do a mock simulation and change the view to show Draft Values and VORP and VONA numbers will show up for the players. Pretty slick tool...I'm having fun with it even though I'm not exactly sure how the points are calculated.
 
'Concept Coop said:
'moleculo said:
how is projecting production different than projecting variability? isn't either one essentially a shot in the dark, largely based on past performance?
Click to expand...
Sure, they are similar in that regard. But the act of projecting them is very different. I ask you: How would you determine how much more consistent Fitzgerald is going to be than Steve Smith - without using catch totals? You have to start projecting every game - and how logical is it to project individual games, especially games 10+ weeks out?Once you have that number, assuming you could project it comfortably - how is it any different than realizing that the more targets and catches you project, the more consistent you are predicting a player will be? Moore, Torrey, and Vincent are inconsistent because they rely greatly on every target. Larry Fitzgerald and Roddy White will be more consistent because they rely much less on each individual target.
Click to expand...
I see moleculo already pointed out that difference in projections.But why do you think you have to project it out? Why can't you just use past data? I don't think anyone would suggest using it as a sole or even major determinant of who to draft or start. You'd start with the underlying assumption that someone who was inconsistent in the past is going to be inconsistant in the future. You can disagree with the underlying assumption, that's fine, I don't really have an opinion one way or the other because I haven't seen any data on it. It's a tie breaker for 2 close players, depending on your risk appetite. Yes the guy who gets 150 Targets and 100 catches is going to be more consistant than the guy who gets 90 targets and 60 receptions. But what of the guy who gets 130 targets and 87 receptions? Some people believe that it isn't necessary to do a detailed projection for players. That you can just tier them. Other's think it's silly not to do a detailed projection because they don't want to simply know that Calvin Johnson > Vincent Jackson. They want to know by how much. This is the same thing, most people would agree that Smith is riskier (more volatile) than Fitzgerald on a week to week basis. The question was "Is there a way to quantify how much?"
 
'Modog814 said:
'Concept Coop said:
If you are basing off of past data - you're only going to find that the guy with the most targets/receptions is the safest. If you predict D. Moore and R. White to both accumulate 1,200, but White to do so with 150 targets, and Moore to do so with 100 targets - White is safer, Moore is riskier. If you need an exact number - use that. In order for you to use past data, outside of what I just described, you would need to pretend to know a lot of things that we simply don't. The number of variables that go into it are extensive. Is Vincent Jackson going to be more consistent? He will play different corners, who play in different systems. He will play in different stadiums with a different collection of weather/domes etcetera. He himself plays for a new team, with a new QB, new coach, new line, new teammates etcetera. Vincent Jackson is - with some exceptions - physically capable of performing the same week-to-week. In order for you to put a number on his consistency for 2012....well, I think it's nearly impossible and silly. He is riskier than Larry because his production relies more on each individual target than Larry's does. If I am wrong - please help me understand how. How would you come up with your number, and how would it be better than using target/reception total?
Click to expand...
How is projecting Vincent Jackson's volatility with all those factors different from projecting his season with all those new factors? It's no more impossible to predict his yearly totals than it is to predict his variance. Noone suggested a way to even come up with a specific number. Someone simply asked if there was a way to quantify it. GoBears84 responded saying that you could do it in DD. I responded saying I don't think that was the question and tried to clarify the question. No body actually came up with a way to quantify it, probably because a) no one is really sure if it's meaningful, b) no one even knows if there is a relationship year to year. You might be right, the answer could be as simple as looking at Fantasy Pts per Target. My first thought was to simply take the variance of fantasy points scored over last seasons set of games. I looked briefly at it for RB's and think I saw some meaningful correlation year over year. But in the end, while I think it could be a useful tool in WDIS questions, I'm not sure it's worth calculating unless it was very simple to do so.
Click to expand...
It is easier to project season numbers than it is to predict variance. Just as it is easier to project total season numbers than it is to project 16 individual games, at this point in time. Things even out over the whole of the season. One example: strength of schedule. The Texans 2010/11 defense was vastly different than their 2011/12 defense. This is one major cause of variance - what teams are going to give up what fantasy points? A QB that played the Texans twice a couple years ago is going to have two potential outlier numbers that mean nothing for the following season. Another example: Players play through injuries all the time. Some that the fans and media never know the extent of. If a player was slowed for two games - we don't know about it - and calculate that as inconsistency, what are we really accomplishing? Or if a RB's pro-bowl LG was out (or hampered) with injury and the team couldn't get the push it usually does - what does that have to do with a RB's numbers next season?Essentially, there many are reasons players have variance between games. The practice of isolating and assigning value to those variables seems fruitless to me. But, again. If I am wrong, and one could calculate and assign a number to it, it would be valuable.
 
'Modog814 said:
'Concept Coop said:
'moleculo said:
how is projecting production different than projecting variability? isn't either one essentially a shot in the dark, largely based on past performance?
Click to expand...
Sure, they are similar in that regard. But the act of projecting them is very different. I ask you: How would you determine how much more consistent Fitzgerald is going to be than Steve Smith - without using catch totals? You have to start projecting every game - and how logical is it to project individual games, especially games 10+ weeks out?Once you have that number, assuming you could project it comfortably - how is it any different than realizing that the more targets and catches you project, the more consistent you are predicting a player will be? Moore, Torrey, and Vincent are inconsistent because they rely greatly on every target. Larry Fitzgerald and Roddy White will be more consistent because they rely much less on each individual target.
Click to expand...
I see moleculo already pointed out that difference in projections.But why do you think you have to project it out? Why can't you just use past data? I don't think anyone would suggest using it as a sole or even major determinant of who to draft or start. You'd start with the underlying assumption that someone who was inconsistent in the past is going to be inconsistant in the future. You can disagree with the underlying assumption, that's fine, I don't really have an opinion one way or the other because I haven't seen any data on it. It's a tie breaker for 2 close players, depending on your risk appetite. Yes the guy who gets 150 Targets and 100 catches is going to be more consistant than the guy who gets 90 targets and 60 receptions. But what of the guy who gets 130 targets and 87 receptions? Some people believe that it isn't necessary to do a detailed projection for players. That you can just tier them. Other's think it's silly not to do a detailed projection because they don't want to simply know that Calvin Johnson > Vincent Jackson. They want to know by how much. This is the same thing, most people would agree that Smith is riskier (more volatile) than Fitzgerald on a week to week basis. The question was "Is there a way to quantify how much?"
Click to expand...
Going back to our Steve Smith example. What does his point variance in 2011/12 have to do with his 2012/13 season if Cam Newton takes steps as a passer? Or if Smith played injured for 4 games last season and it hurt his play? What if the Panthers improve their offensive line play? What if they open up their offense more? What if the division changes the way they defend the Panthers this season? What if they play a tougher schedule, or a weaker one?You can't assign a blanket value to "variance". You would need to isolate countless variables in order to be any kind of accurate or guided in your projection of it.
 
'Concept Coop said:
It is easier to project season numbers than it is to predict variance. Just as it is easier to project total season numbers than it is to project 16 individual games, at this point in time. Things even out over the whole of the season. One example: strength of schedule. The Texans 2010/11 defense was vastly different than their 2011/12 defense. This is one major cause of variance - what teams are going to give up what fantasy points? A QB that played the Texans twice a couple years ago is going to have two potential outlier numbers that mean nothing for the following season. Another example: Players play through injuries all the time. Some that the fans and media never know the extent of. If a player was slowed for two games - we don't know about it - and calculate that as inconsistency, what are we really accomplishing? Or if a RB's pro-bowl LG was out (or hampered) with injury and the team couldn't get the push it usually does - what does that have to do with a RB's numbers next season?Essentially, there many are reasons players have variance between games. The practice of isolating and assigning value to those variables seems fruitless to me. But, again. If I am wrong, and one could calculate and assign a number to it, it would be valuable.
Click to expand...
I don't disagree with anything you said. I think where we disagree is about the difficulty of calculating such a number. You think it's nearly impossible, I think there probably is some correlation year to year. Enough at least to make it a decent estimate for the upcoming year.
 
'Modog814 said:
I don't disagree with anything you said. I think where we disagree is about the difficulty of calculating such a number. You think it's nearly impossible, I think there probably is some correlation year to year. Enough at least to make it a decent estimate for the upcoming year.
Click to expand...
You could be right and the truth is likely somewhere in the middle. I hope someone figures it out and lets me know. It would be a great help. ;)
 
'Concept Coop said:
'Modog814 said:
'Concept Coop said:
'moleculo said:
how is projecting production different than projecting variability? isn't either one essentially a shot in the dark, largely based on past performance?
Click to expand...
Sure, they are similar in that regard. But the act of projecting them is very different. I ask you: How would you determine how much more consistent Fitzgerald is going to be than Steve Smith - without using catch totals? You have to start projecting every game - and how logical is it to project individual games, especially games 10+ weeks out?Once you have that number, assuming you could project it comfortably - how is it any different than realizing that the more targets and catches you project, the more consistent you are predicting a player will be? Moore, Torrey, and Vincent are inconsistent because they rely greatly on every target. Larry Fitzgerald and Roddy White will be more consistent because they rely much less on each individual target.
Click to expand...
I see moleculo already pointed out that difference in projections.But why do you think you have to project it out? Why can't you just use past data? I don't think anyone would suggest using it as a sole or even major determinant of who to draft or start. You'd start with the underlying assumption that someone who was inconsistent in the past is going to be inconsistant in the future. You can disagree with the underlying assumption, that's fine, I don't really have an opinion one way or the other because I haven't seen any data on it. It's a tie breaker for 2 close players, depending on your risk appetite. Yes the guy who gets 150 Targets and 100 catches is going to be more consistant than the guy who gets 90 targets and 60 receptions. But what of the guy who gets 130 targets and 87 receptions? Some people believe that it isn't necessary to do a detailed projection for players. That you can just tier them. Other's think it's silly not to do a detailed projection because they don't want to simply know that Calvin Johnson > Vincent Jackson. They want to know by how much. This is the same thing, most people would agree that Smith is riskier (more volatile) than Fitzgerald on a week to week basis. The question was "Is there a way to quantify how much?"
Click to expand...
Going back to our Steve Smith example. What does his point variance in 2011/12 have to do with his 2012/13 season if Cam Newton takes steps as a passer? Or if Smith played injured for 4 games last season and it hurt his play? What if the Panthers improve their offensive line play? What if they open up their offense more? What if the division changes the way they defend the Panthers this season? What if they play a tougher schedule, or a weaker one?You can't assign a blanket value to "variance". You would need to isolate countless variables in order to be any kind of accurate or guided in your projection of it.
Click to expand...
You'd need to isolate these same variables to come up with any type of projection. I thinking back is a decent estimate that can be used as a starting point where you can logically made adjustments. This is how most people make projections. They say Smith caught X balls for Y yards last year, and I think Newton with Progress/Regress as a passer, so I'll give Smith X +/- a catches for Y +/- b yards. Why can't do the same thing and say, Smith had a variance of 5 ppg last year. I think Newton Progresses/Regresses so that he'll be more/less consistent. I'll assigned a variance of 5 +/- c ppg.
 
When I originally asked it was with vbd in mind ie at this point in time compare a RB WR and TE together. I would think some sort of small handicap, say 2-5% up or down in projections would be beneficial to some on how they draft. I already semi know who most of the consistant guys are and who the ones with great games and crappy games.

This comes up constantly in the first 6 or 7 rounds in drafts. Do I take Jason Witten or Finley? Finley can put up great numbers and could possibly have better season stats, but I take Witten. Vut if i take Witten will he give a larger spread in points over Stevie Hohnson? I was trying to add something extra to VBD to find out why.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
'Modog814 said:
'Concept Coop said:
It is easier to project season numbers than it is to predict variance. Just as it is easier to project total season numbers than it is to project 16 individual games, at this point in time. Things even out over the whole of the season.

One example: strength of schedule. The Texans 2010/11 defense was vastly different than their 2011/12 defense. This is one major cause of variance - what teams are going to give up what fantasy points? A QB that played the Texans twice a couple years ago is going to have two potential outlier numbers that mean nothing for the following season.

Another example: Players play through injuries all the time. Some that the fans and media never know the extent of. If a player was slowed for two games - we don't know about it - and calculate that as inconsistency, what are we really accomplishing? Or if a RB's pro-bowl LG was out (or hampered) with injury and the team couldn't get the push it usually does - what does that have to do with a RB's numbers next season?

Essentially, there many are reasons players have variance between games. The practice of isolating and assigning value to those variables seems fruitless to me.

But, again. If I am wrong, and one could calculate and assign a number to it, it would be valuable.
Click to expand...
I don't disagree with anything you said. I think where we disagree is about the difficulty of calculating such a number. You think it's nearly impossible, I think there probably is some correlation year to year. Enough at least to make it a decent estimate for the upcoming year.
Click to expand...
I think there is some coorelation. This is a good topic and a hijack from this thread; please see new topic.
 
'Modog814 said:
'Concept Coop said:
'Modog814 said:
'Concept Coop said:
'moleculo said:
how is projecting production different than projecting variability? isn't either one essentially a shot in the dark, largely based on past performance?
Click to expand...
Sure, they are similar in that regard. But the act of projecting them is very different. I ask you: How would you determine how much more consistent Fitzgerald is going to be than Steve Smith - without using catch totals? You have to start projecting every game - and how logical is it to project individual games, especially games 10+ weeks out?Once you have that number, assuming you could project it comfortably - how is it any different than realizing that the more targets and catches you project, the more consistent you are predicting a player will be? Moore, Torrey, and Vincent are inconsistent because they rely greatly on every target. Larry Fitzgerald and Roddy White will be more consistent because they rely much less on each individual target.
Click to expand...
I see moleculo already pointed out that difference in projections.But why do you think you have to project it out? Why can't you just use past data? I don't think anyone would suggest using it as a sole or even major determinant of who to draft or start. You'd start with the underlying assumption that someone who was inconsistent in the past is going to be inconsistant in the future. You can disagree with the underlying assumption, that's fine, I don't really have an opinion one way or the other because I haven't seen any data on it. It's a tie breaker for 2 close players, depending on your risk appetite. Yes the guy who gets 150 Targets and 100 catches is going to be more consistant than the guy who gets 90 targets and 60 receptions. But what of the guy who gets 130 targets and 87 receptions? Some people believe that it isn't necessary to do a detailed projection for players. That you can just tier them. Other's think it's silly not to do a detailed projection because they don't want to simply know that Calvin Johnson > Vincent Jackson. They want to know by how much. This is the same thing, most people would agree that Smith is riskier (more volatile) than Fitzgerald on a week to week basis. The question was "Is there a way to quantify how much?"
Click to expand...
Going back to our Steve Smith example. What does his point variance in 2011/12 have to do with his 2012/13 season if Cam Newton takes steps as a passer? Or if Smith played injured for 4 games last season and it hurt his play? What if the Panthers improve their offensive line play? What if they open up their offense more? What if the division changes the way they defend the Panthers this season? What if they play a tougher schedule, or a weaker one?You can't assign a blanket value to "variance". You would need to isolate countless variables in order to be any kind of accurate or guided in your projection of it.
Click to expand...
You'd need to isolate these same variables to come up with any type of projection. I thinking back is a decent estimate that can be used as a starting point where you can logically made adjustments. This is how most people make projections. They say Smith caught X balls for Y yards last year, and I think Newton with Progress/Regress as a passer, so I'll give Smith X +/- a catches for Y +/- b yards. Why can't do the same thing and say, Smith had a variance of 5 ppg last year. I think Newton Progresses/Regresses so that he'll be more/less consistent. I'll assigned a variance of 5 +/- c ppg.
Click to expand...
The differnce is the number and stability of the variables. Again - when we talk about entire seasons, things start to even out. When we are dealing with outliers, and assigning them value, we are not being productive, in my opinion.Saying "Steve Smith had 5 below average games last season, that means _______________ next season" doesn't make sense to me.
 
'Concept Coop said:
'Modog814 said:
'Concept Coop said:
'Modog814 said:
'Concept Coop said:
'moleculo said:
how is projecting production different than projecting variability? isn't either one essentially a shot in the dark, largely based on past performance?
Click to expand...
Sure, they are similar in that regard. But the act of projecting them is very different. I ask you: How would you determine how much more consistent Fitzgerald is going to be than Steve Smith - without using catch totals? You have to start projecting every game - and how logical is it to project individual games, especially games 10+ weeks out?Once you have that number, assuming you could project it comfortably - how is it any different than realizing that the more targets and catches you project, the more consistent you are predicting a player will be? Moore, Torrey, and Vincent are inconsistent because they rely greatly on every target. Larry Fitzgerald and Roddy White will be more consistent because they rely much less on each individual target.
Click to expand...
I see moleculo already pointed out that difference in projections.But why do you think you have to project it out? Why can't you just use past data? I don't think anyone would suggest using it as a sole or even major determinant of who to draft or start. You'd start with the underlying assumption that someone who was inconsistent in the past is going to be inconsistant in the future. You can disagree with the underlying assumption, that's fine, I don't really have an opinion one way or the other because I haven't seen any data on it. It's a tie breaker for 2 close players, depending on your risk appetite. Yes the guy who gets 150 Targets and 100 catches is going to be more consistant than the guy who gets 90 targets and 60 receptions. But what of the guy who gets 130 targets and 87 receptions? Some people believe that it isn't necessary to do a detailed projection for players. That you can just tier them. Other's think it's silly not to do a detailed projection because they don't want to simply know that Calvin Johnson > Vincent Jackson. They want to know by how much. This is the same thing, most people would agree that Smith is riskier (more volatile) than Fitzgerald on a week to week basis. The question was "Is there a way to quantify how much?"
Click to expand...
Going back to our Steve Smith example. What does his point variance in 2011/12 have to do with his 2012/13 season if Cam Newton takes steps as a passer? Or if Smith played injured for 4 games last season and it hurt his play? What if the Panthers improve their offensive line play? What if they open up their offense more? What if the division changes the way they defend the Panthers this season? What if they play a tougher schedule, or a weaker one?You can't assign a blanket value to "variance". You would need to isolate countless variables in order to be any kind of accurate or guided in your projection of it.
Click to expand...
You'd need to isolate these same variables to come up with any type of projection. I thinking back is a decent estimate that can be used as a starting point where you can logically made adjustments. This is how most people make projections. They say Smith caught X balls for Y yards last year, and I think Newton with Progress/Regress as a passer, so I'll give Smith X +/- a catches for Y +/- b yards. Why can't do the same thing and say, Smith had a variance of 5 ppg last year. I think Newton Progresses/Regresses so that he'll be more/less consistent. I'll assigned a variance of 5 +/- c ppg.
Click to expand...
The differnce is the number and stability of the variables. Again - when we talk about entire seasons, things start to even out. When we are dealing with outliers, and assigning them value, we are not being productive, in my opinion.Saying "Steve Smith had 5 below average games last season, that means _______________ next season" doesn't make sense to me.
Click to expand...
how meaningful is it if I said, "over his career, Steve Smith's weekly output has a standard deviation of 9.69 which is significantly more than similarly rated Marcus Colston (7.62)?
 
'chickensoup said:
This comes up constantly in the first 6 or 7 rounds in drafts. Do I take Jason Witten or Finley? Finley can put up great numbers and could possibly have better season stats, but I take Witten. Vut if i take Witten will he give a larger spread in points over Stevie Hohnson? I was trying to add something extra to VBD to find out why.
Click to expand...
Very good way of putting it - very valid conversation. Witten's value is more stable and consistant becuase it relies much less on TDs, his targets are more consistant and he is more consistant with them. I don't know how an owner could put a number on that, however.
 
'moleculo said:
how meaningful is it if I said, "over his career, Steve Smith's weekly output has a standard deviation of 9.69 which is significantly more than similarly rated Marcus Colston (7.62)?
Click to expand...
Not very, in my opinion. Marcus Colston has played with Drew Brees, Smith has been surrounded by chaos. What does Smith's past team issues have to do with 2012?
 
'Concept Coop said:
The differnce is the number and stability of the variables. Again - when we talk about entire seasons, things start to even out. When we are dealing with outliers, and assigning them value, we are not being productive, in my opinion.Saying "Steve Smith had 5 below average games last season, that means _______________ next season" doesn't make sense to me.
Click to expand...
We can agree to disagree on the fact that there is a difference in the number and stability of variables. I don't see a difference in it. I agree that saying Smith had 5 below average games last year is pretty irrelevant. What I do think is relevant is knowing how risky a player could be in any given week. I believe it affects mostly WDIS questions. Using moleculo's example, it's nice to know that if you think you need a little extra fire power this week, you can start Smith who offers up to a 6 point additional upside (assuming Normal Distrubtion, which I'll admit is a shaky assumption, but it's just for example). If you want to be conservative this week, you can start Colston who offers a 6 point higher floor.
 
'Concept Coop said:
'moleculo said:
how meaningful is it if I said, "over his career, Steve Smith's weekly output has a standard deviation of 9.69 which is significantly more than similarly rated Marcus Colston (7.62)?
Click to expand...
Not very, in my opinion. Marcus Colston has played with Drew Brees, Smith has been surrounded by chaos. What does Smith's past team issues have to do with 2012?
Click to expand...
So my question to you is how do you project Smiths 2012 statistics?
 
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