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Anybody buying on Demarco Murray?

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7 minutes ago, bostonfred said:

If Tennessee is 5 and 8 how confident will you be in starting him in a fantasy playoff game? 

What exactly is the implication here?  That they're going to bench all of their starters and play for the #1 pick?  I don't understand why you'd not want to start Murray in week 14 if he was playing well on a 5-8 team headed into that week.  It's not like this is Chester Taylor sitting in front of Adrian Peterson where they have a top 10 draft pick behind him that they're eager to get on the field.

7 of the top 10 scoring RBs in last year's fantasy playoffs were from NFL teams that weren't going to the playoffs.

 

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8 hours ago, Sitch said:

Everyone thought he was toast coming off the massive workload the year before with Dallas.  Whether it was due to that or Chip not using him correctly, those fears came true.  He may bounce back somewhat this year, but going on 28, I'm selling all my shares of him.

They came true?  Until Kelly went off the rails Demarco was a top 10 back in ppr?  And 28 isn't 30.  Selling low now seems foolish.  

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14 hours ago, Sabertooth said:

They came true?  Until Kelly went off the rails Demarco was a top 10 back in ppr?  And 28 isn't 30.  Selling low now seems foolish.  

He was a top 10 back last year?  At what point?    And who said anything about selling low?  I said I'm looking to sell him where I own him, if its a good deal.

Edited by Sitch

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I was going from memory and I was wrong there.  He was RB12 through week 6 though.  

I have found the market very cool for him right now.  I am holding.   I just don't think his value is near where it will be when the season opens.  

Edited by Sabertooth

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TitansOnline's Jim Wyatt said "the plan" is for DeMarco Murray to handle "the bulk of the carries."

 

Coach Mike Mularkey said as much right after the Titans spent a second-round pick on Derrick Henry. While that could be the plan right now, Henry will certainly get his opportunities and could end up stealing work if Murray looks as sluggish and spent as he did last year in Philadelphia. For what it is worth, Wyatt says Murray has "been impressive so far."
Related: Derrick Henry
 
May 28 - 10:52 AM

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DeMarco Murray said he feels more comfortable in Mike Mularkey's offense than he did with Chip Kelly in Philadelphia.

 

"It’s strictly downhill and that’s what I’ve been accustomed to my entire life," said Murray. "Nothing against last year or what happened, it just didn’t work out." Murray was running on fumes last season after being overworked in his last year with Dallas. A change of scenery in a simpler offense could be Murray's ticket to a bounce-back season. He'll need to create distance ahead of 2015 Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry first.
 
 
Jun 22 - 6:44 PM

 

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I like Murray this year.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2016/07/08/titans-assistant-calls-demarco-murray-a-coachs-dream/

Titans assistant calls DeMarco Murray “a coach’s dream”

...  Titans running backs coach Sylvester Croom is high on Murray.

He’s a coach’s dream,” Croom said of Murray, via the team’s website.

 

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Love it.  Gotta love stuff like that.  The article further states “From a physical standpoint, his football talent is obvious,’’ Croom said of Henry. “Now, the mental toughness, the mental discipline, how to truly be a professional football player — that is the key and it will determine how much success he is going to have and how much he’ll be able to help our football team. The talent is there, but until a rookie goes through the first season, he really doesn’t know what it takes to be a pro at this level.”

Sounds like the initial plan is to use Demarco early and often.  Of course, as Mike Tyson put it so eloquently, "Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth."

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Murray is a margina talrnt at RB and was exposed as such in Philly where Mathews BADLY outplayed him on a ypc basis.

Without that Dallas Oline Murray is a JAG..

Id be looking to trade him now before his value goes down ( when they see what they have in Henry)..i.e., first scrimmage, first week of training camp  in July..

 

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3 minutes ago, Tanner9919 said:

Murray is a margina talrnt at RB and was exposed as such in Philly where Mathews BADLY outplayed him on a ypc basis.

Without that Dallas Oline Murray is a JAG..

Id be looking to trade him now before his value goes down ( when they see what they have in Henry)..i.e., first scrimmage, first week of training camp  in July..

 

:no:

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22 hours ago, Tanner9919 said:

Murray is a margina talrnt at RB and was exposed as such in Philly where Mathews BADLY outplayed him on a ypc basis.

Without that Dallas Oline Murray is a JAG..

Id be looking to trade him now before his value goes down ( when they see what they have in Henry)..i.e., first scrimmage, first week of training camp  in July..

 

So what price would you take today? You know, before 'his value goes down', as you so confidently profess?

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I would take any of the tier 2 rookie rbs over murray which for me includes henry (hes 1a imo), dixon, perkins, booker, prosise in ppr, and howard in non ppr.  So i guess i think hes worth a mid second.  I can understand someone else feelong differently.

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I have a feeling DeMarco Murray is going to win a lot of playoff spots for Fantasy teams this year.

I hope that fantasy players continue to use his last season in PHI as their measuring stick for his ability/chances of success.

 

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I don't have a firm handle on where I think Murray should be drafted this year but I can say as an Eagle's fan, unless you watched every game, it can't be overstated how BAD Chip Kelly ran this team. His use of Murray made ZERO sense and the amount of times he was blasted behind the line of scrimmage? I lost count. I agree that Mathews is faster and I also agree that the Dallas Lin eg really helped Murray but I don't think he's a mediocre talent. Tennessee should be a team on the rise with a mobile qb and a better Kline than he had in philly.

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CSN Bay Area reports Colin Kaepernick has appeared more willing to run the ball on read options this summer.

 

"Our offense takes what the defense gives us," OC Curtis Modkins said. "It just so happens he had a couple of those." The read option was part of the lifeblood of coach Chip Kelly's offense at Oregon, but has been scarcely utilized through his first three seasons in the big leagues. Not counting a declining Michael Vick, Kap represents Kelly's first true running threat under center. The duo could potentially save each other's careers if they got the read option rocking.
 
 
Source: CSN Bay Area 
Aug 4 - 3:21 PM

 

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I am really struggling on projections for Murray this year.  He was really good for several years before last year and I don't know how to handle this year. 

Murray's PPG in non-ppr for the last 5 years are 9.6, 19.0, 14.8, 11.5, 9.2(Rookie).  Those are pretty solid numbers.  His 2014 season was certainly an outlier as he is not going to get 400 touches again.  But a career 4.5 yards per carry is pretty solid, so there must be some talent here.

I guess the hard part is guess what his usage is going to be in Tenn.  At first glance it looks like they want to run the ball alot, however are they going to be good enough to do that?  With a limited passing game are they going to be able to keep defenses honest and not let them stack the box.  Is there oline good enough to let Murray be effective against loaded boxes?  Is the game script going to be to abandon the run in the second half of every game.  

Right now I have him at RB21 in non-ppr with 10.8 PPG.  My projection is 240/1008/6 - 40/292/1.   That's 15 rushes per game and 2.5 receptions.  

 

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I don't think it is very easy to project for the Titans right now as there are many moving parts. I find it even more difficult trying to project for them in dynasty as I am not sure if there will be continuity with the coaching staff after this season. That depends somewhat on how successful they are this season. If they improve a lot, perhaps this means Mularkey is retained for another season, and then we would have 2016 stats to pattern what 2017 might look like. If the Titans don't improve much then Mularkey likely gets canned and we are back at ground zero again in regards to the teams direction.

Some things we do know is that the Titans defense was not good last season. It would be hard for them not to improve on the defensive side of the ball, however their improvement may not be much from last season. They need to not allow so many points for the running game to really get going the way I think Mularkey wants it to.

Mularkey is currently on his 3rd head coaching job of his career. He got two seasons in Buffalo from 2004 to 2005. The offense was pretty balanced as far as run to pass ratio.Willis McGahee was their primary RB. At WR he had Eric Moulds who got most of the targets, the other WR they had didn't do too much. His more recent HC job was in 2012 with the Jaguars. They threw the ball a lot because MJD only played in six games. You see some pretty high run to pass ratios with him as an offensive coordinator for the most part as long as he has RB healthy. He is perhaps most well known for being the OC with Atlanta and Matt Ryan, in 2008 they ran 560 times to 434 pass attempts. This evened out as Matt Ryan gained more experience. They brought in Michael Turner from SD at 26 years old and he became their featured RB while Mularkey was there.

The draft and free agency for the Titans did not address the defense much unless I am missing something. They added a defensive end in Kevin Dodd and a nose tackle Austin Johnson in the second round of the draft. They also drafted a safety Kevin Byard in the 3rd round who interested me prior to the draft. In free agency most of their additions were on the offensive side of the ball, including Murray.

Last seasons total plays is the same as their 3 year average of total plays on offense at 976. With the emphasis on running the ball I don't expect this to increase.

If the offense is a 56/44 split between the pass and the run that would be 547 passing attempts 429 rushing attempts.

Marcus Mariota could run the ball more this season and if so perhaps some of those passing attempts shift to run plays. Last season Mariota ran the ball 2.8 times per game which is less than I was expecting. Over 16 games this is 45 rushing attempts. I could see that being 60 over 16 pretty easily, possibly more. Anyhow I see this leaving 380 rushing attempts for players other than Mariota.

If Murray and Henry end up splitting rushing attempts 50/50 this would be 190 rushing attempts each. I would expect Murray to win the starting job and get the majority of the work at least early on in the season, with Henry getting worked into the offense more as the season goes on. This could end up being a 60/40 split between Murray/Henry or vice versa, just depends on how well each of the RB are playing and how quickly Henry earns more time in the offense. At a 60/40 split Murray would get 228 rushing attempts over the season. If he got 65% of the 380 this would be 247 rushing attempts. I wouldn't expect Murray to get more than this.

This sets the projection range of rushing attempts for Murray at 190-228-247 as a floor/median/ceiling or 12-14-15.4 rushing attempts/game range. While I could see Murray being used more than this on a per game basis, especially early on in the season, if Henry isn't ready, I do see Henry getting worked in at some point. So this range seems reasonable to me. If there was not a second RB like Henry to compete with Murray I would be more comfortable giving Murray more rushing attempts than this.

As far as targets in the passing game go I would expect Murray to be used a lot more there. Not that Henry isn't capable as a receiver, he is, Henry is also very good in pass protection, however he is also a rookie, so they will likely feel more confident in Murray for those assignments this season.

RBs accounted for 94 targets in the passing game last season. 41 of those were to McCluster, who I am not sure what kind of role he may have or if he has one under Mularkey? I haven't heard any talk about him thus far from training camp, but I also haven't really looked into that yet.

If I assume McCluster or some other player continues to gets 30 of the RB targets, that leaves 64 for the main RBs. If Murray gets 60% of those it would be 38 targets. Murray has averaged 62 targets per season over the last 3 seasons. I think the median number of targets should be 50 and a target range would be 40-50-60 or 2.5-3.1-3.75 targets per game.

Murray has a career catch rate of 82% so on 50 targets this would be 41 receptions.

So putting that together the median projection and career 4.6 ypc/ 7.1 ypr numbers for Murray would be 228 rushing attempts 1049 yards and 50 targets 41 receptions 291 yards 8TD (at career numbers of .5 TD/game). I would expect a larger share of those numbers to happen at the beginning of the season and Murray could have a strong start. 

 

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Murray for me isn't great value with an ADP in the 5th round.

Just way too many other high upside options around where he's going...I'd much rather have high upside bellcow guys like Arian Foster several rounds later. 

In PPR he's very overvalued as there are several other high ceiling options available like Dion Lewis and Ryan Matthews.

 

Edited by TripItUp

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As a Demarco owner, I'm worried about the "hot hand" approach.  Usually that just means both RBs are stuck and neither is a good option from week to week.  In theory, Murray could have an amazing year as the bellcow in an offense with a scrambling QB, but, Henry is bound to take carries, and probably more and more as the season progresses.

I have Demarco Murray around RB20.

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The Titans first four regular season games are the Vikings, Lions, Raiders, Texans.

I don't consider these to be favorable match ups. The Raiders added some good players to their defense this off season. The Texans are an enigma to me, I just don't follow them much. I usually consider them a difficult match up and the best defense in the AFC South, but I have often been wrong about that. They were a bad defense at the beginning of last season, then played a lot better in the second half of the season.

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29 minutes ago, steelers1080 said:

As a Demarco owner, I'm worried about the "hot hand" approach.  Usually that just means both RBs are stuck and neither is a good option from week to week.  In theory, Murray could have an amazing year as the bellcow in an offense with a scrambling QB, but, Henry is bound to take carries, and probably more and more as the season progresses.

I have Demarco Murray around RB20.

 

Rookie RBs who can't pass protect or catch the ball won't be in the game in obvious passing situations.  Murray is one of the best pass protecting RBs in the league and he is a goal line threat and he can catch.  So, I don't think the rookie will see the field in obvious passing situations and I don't think he beats out Murray as the goal line back while he's learning.  

Typically rookie RBs don't see much work for at least the first 8 to 10 games as they learn pass-pro but then factor in the high contract of Murray and it seems the Titans will use up Murray's legs this year and lean on him and give the rookie plenty of time to ease into the position.  

If you read Matt Waldman's take on the Titans offensive line and the blocking scheme they use that fit the style of running of DeMarco Murray then you know he was not a good fit in Philly or in Chip's system.  

I think that Murray has a chance to be a top fantasy RB for at least the first 8 to 10 games because he already knows and is proficient in many areas that will take time for the rookie to learn.  

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The Titans schedule gets easier after the first four games I think. They play:

Miami - hearing good things about their defensive line so far in camp.

Browns

Colts

Jaguars

Chargers

Packers

Colts

Bears

They get Denver and KC after the bye weeks 15 and 16.

Aside from what may be a difficult start with the Vikings, Lions, Raiders the schedule looks favorable to running the ball. 

If he does struggle against some of the defenses early on then maybe there will be a buy low window, if you are not worried about Henry taking over for him.

Based on what the coach is saying to Henry about starting full speed right away when he plays, instead of later in the practice, that suggests he intends to use Henry as a COP to Murray more than a bellbow. He won't have patience for Henry having five dead plays before he starts running well is the message he is sending.

I definitely see Henry getting worked into the offense, but I think it will be more like 6 to 10 per game and maybe not that much in those early games, but more so during this middle stretch of games.

The Vikings, Lions, Raiders and Texans have too many good pass rushers to expect much of Henry early on.

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I think Henry is going to cut into Murray' work load quite often. Plus the Titans stink. I'm avoiding like the plague at his ADP.

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5 minutes ago, STEADYMOBBIN 22 said:

He can still get into 4th gear quick but he now runs with a hitch and there's no 5th gear. 

Someone lost a gear at 28.  That has to suck.

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I saw the replay of the score and it looked like the Chargers just gave up trying to stop him. Couldn't believe no one could catch him considering he didn't look fast at all. 

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Field condition was apparently an issue. Very interested to see how this plays out but I think the value is there for him in the 6th on. 

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I think the entire Shark Pool believes Henry is going to be a beast but reading the Henry thread I find it hard to believe how many people have completely given up on Demarco.  He was extremely misused in Philly and was not a good fit there either.  He still has gas left in the tank and is not as injury prone as people think.  Not to mention I still think he has some of the best hands of any RB in the league, and has possessed those skills dating back to his time at OU.  With Sproles in Philly he just wasn't able to showcase it as much so I think people forget that.  Seeing his ADP slip more and more with the Henry hype train, I think some people are making a big mistake underestimating this guy in this offense.  Henry will keep him fresh and keep the tires rotated which might be better suited for him versus wearing the tires bald like they did in Dallas.  I think with his current ADP he could very well be one of the steals of the draft this year.  His fantasy playoff schedule looks pretty rough with Week 14 vs Broncos, 15 @ Chiefs, but Week 16 may be a home run @ Jags.  I know this is just one opinion amongst many and I have no statistical backing here, but my gut says this guy isn't washed up yet.  After being a couple years removed from being the rushing king, and the rookie breathing down his neck, I think he's going to push himself to show he is still an elite RB talent in this league.

Edited by OU#1
Typos

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He is my pick for bounce-back player of the year. It was painful to see him struggle with Chip Kelly's offense last year. The calls just didn't suit his style and Chip couldn't adapt. Plus he needed a breather after his heavy use in Dallas. The Titans will up his volume and play to his strengths. I'm buying.

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Titans coach Mike Mularkey says DeMarco Murray will be the featured back against the Vikings in Week 1.

 

The plan is for rookie Derrick Henry to spell him. Henry looked phenomenal during preseason play, but for now, the Titans will roll with Murray as the workhorse. He's in the RB2 discussion for Week 1.
 
 
Sep 7 - 5:16 PM

 

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Looks like my projections have Murray on the high-end of Bia's projected carry total (240).

I kept looking for reasons to avoid Murray this year but he was consistently the last RB off the board who in my mind (and on my spreadsheet) was going to receive a very relevant workload this year. More importantly, it's the type of workload that he's projected to see (three-down) that I'm interested in. Once McCluster was released I felt a more confidant in investing because it meant that he wasn't subject to negative game scripts in PPR anymore. He's their best pass catching back, I have him catching 50 balls this year.

I imagine Murray will be considered good value when it's all said and done with even if Henry inevitably turns this into a timeshare. 

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Murray is the top back in FF, as of now. Kudos to him. This was not happening and impossible according to Eagles fans and a lot of others too.

Henry was getting more carries than Murray as the Raiders game began. I would guess midway through quarter two, it shifted Murray's way but it ended 16 to 10. That's pretty close. I think that was a fine use of both.

I get on the Titans coaches ALOT but, they have used Murray perfectly. Mariota has too with his audibles. A couple times, you could see him shift and no one move with him. Mariota threw to him almost right away. 10 yards or so on each completion. This wasn't a Raiders problem per se, they've been doing this three weeks now. He's really moving around a lot. 

Henry is more "I'm comin atcha" while Murray has a fancy useful vibe to him.

A bunch of plays that both of them are doing, the FB did in preseason. I really think we are going more toward where they are both in the game together. I love the FB and am not happy about this, but the FB shifting to the slot-or Henry-or Murray....it doesn't matter, it'll work.

My issue is Kendall returning. Remember he has only been a slot WR this year. Reporters have argued whether he even took a few outside snaps in OTAs. It is either nearly 100% or 100% of snaps in the slot. Murray has rocked there. I don't want to poke a stick at it. Wright is exciting and has incredible shifting ability but Wright is not returning to fill a void. 

Wright has been in the backfield himself for maybe 10-20 snaps a season. It doesn't work when he shifts. "Everyone" knows he is and it looks almost dopey. I don't want to turn him into Tavon Austin.

I don't think he can mix in well at all now. IMO they should force him to only play outside. Scrap the offseason plan. 

The 2 and 3 TE offense is brutal and I hate it. WRs have almost no value in it too. If Wright can be sudden and get open, maybe he could....maybe. I'm not sure if Sharpe or Matthews will have much of any success til Mularkey learns to stop this 3 TE stuff. In a pro set I am a big fan of their reliability, but in a multiple TE set where the WR is barely used- they need a homerun hitter at WR. Kendall is the only one they've got.

When their lie (of the last two years so I call it a lie) of an offense used two WRs, I could oh so begrudgingly see their point in watching Hunter and DGB walk. If you go back in time though and they go through camp with a 2 and 3 TE offense, every single big WR is ideal. Every one they had could flat out fly and of course had ups. Andre is too old. None of their WRs are force it their way types. Sharpe's getting like four catches a week the last two weeks and they are all forced. DGB could do that. He'd have added the deep ball and lobs too. That would have been another year of experience and who knows in 2017. (Same with TZ and Roberts and Hunter) Sharpe Matthews etc were eons better route runners and I get that THEN but they have done nothing to utilize that ability the last couple weeks. 

Today the Titans signed some big WR Jordan Leslie to the PS and cut excellent UDFA Antwaun Woods. (oh my I hope he goes to a team that appreciates NTs, geesh) What a waste

Anyway...my gut tells me Mularkey is about to ruin Murray's effectiveness when Wright returns so I wanted to give him some praise for being tops three weeks in.

The passing game has been real ugly besides Murray the last two weeks. Now it's going to get worse

 

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The only way I could see this being serious is if he seriously aggravated it in the 3rd quarter. The mere fact that he came out of the lockeroom, ready to play in a game where his team was up 27-0 makes me think that it couldn't have been that serious initially.

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31 minutes ago, SameSongNDance said:

The only way I could see this being serious is if he seriously aggravated it in the 3rd quarter. The mere fact that he came out of the lockeroom, ready to play in a game where his team was up 27-0 makes me think that it couldn't have been that serious initially.

CJA came back and ran for 100 yards. There are injuries that allow a player to make it through a game and turn out to be serious later. 

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45 minutes ago, bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

Havent people played the rest of the game after tearing an acl?? I seem to recall that happeneing before

Maybe, but 99% of the players that left a game and came back don't miss time. I don't know why going back in the game would be construed as bad.

Edited by stbugs

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5 hours ago, stbugs said:

Maybe, but 99% of the players that left a game and came back don't miss time. I don't know why going back in the game would be construed as bad.

The MRI would be the bad sign. 

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17 hours ago, bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

Havent people played the rest of the game after tearing an acl?? I seem to recall that happeneing before

Dez played the rest of the game after getting injured earlier this year and then missed several weeks.  

Not saying that's what is happening here but returning to the game isn't a sure sign Murray is fine.  The fact they want to do an MRI shows something may not be right even though he continued to play.

Edited by skillz

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I thought they were dumb to put him back in.  no need

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2 hours ago, need2know said:

I thought they were dumb to put him back in.  no need

Agree, But with the way Henry was running, maybe Murray felt the need to be extra vocal about getting back in the game?

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