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Stock Thread (30 Viewers)

Aaron Rudnicki said:
I'm buying FB on the dips. :shrug: I don't think people really care enough to move the needle long-term,.
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I am trying very hard to understand what the issue is that is so devastating and why FB is getting crushed.  So, some company was able to access 50 million user profiles to gather data, right?  Okay.  So on my, granted quite banal, FB profile, they can see I'm married.  What state i live in.  And I have some friends.  Great.  How exactly is that a significant data breach?  

As I understand it, the EU has some measures in place that if a company allows a data breach, they are allow to levy fines up to 6% total revenue.  Yeah, that could really suck but this isn't the EU, is it?

Equifax had a security breach which had access to social security numbers, credit data, income, employment, and more.  That is a massive data breach and that stock has already rebounded to almost 85% of it's pre-breach value.  

And FB has 2 billion ####### users.  Think about the advertising income stream potential to reach 2 billion people.  Equifax has no where near that potential.

Now, all that being said, after watching "Dirty Money" on netflix, I am nowhere near as well versed in the details of such scandals as I thought.  I had no idea about what exactly the likes of Valeant were doing and VW.  But I mean, to me, this whole FB debacle doesn't not seem all that spectacular.  Perhaps I'm missing something?

And I'm long GOOGL for long time.  I did sell off a bit a few months ago to lock in some big gains, but have bought back again too.  :shrug:

 
I suspect a lot of Tech takes a hit from this FB incident, as fear of regulation over use of information will be significant.  How much money do you think Google is making off of the information they gather from your actions?  Much of that is potentially at risk.  Do you think this administration has an appetite to regulate anything?  Nothing they've shown so far indicates they do.  Though if there's one area Trump would love to stick it to, it is Tech.

But if you think autonomous vehicles are about to be a thing, and I don't know how anyone can think differently right now, do you think Waymo won't be one of the huge winners from that shift?  A shift that will probably give them a significant share of: personal automobile sales, commercial vehicle sales, ride sharing/taxi services... what else?  The multi-billion $ shakeup of the auto insurance industry ('cause how do you think you're going to insure your self-driving Waymo car? You think Google's going to let that money walk?).  Others?

And those are all cash outflows realizing no gains right now.  How far away do you think they are from capitalizing on that?  How much of that is baked into this price?  IF there's a stock that looks "cheap" to me right now, it's GOOGL.  But that doesn't mean there won't be short term pain while all this shakes out.  Personally, no way I'd sell what I'm holding.  Buying in/buying more?  Personal decision.  But if we see $900s again because of all of this, I might have to send a skilled fellator to Zuckerberg as a thank you. <insert ______'s mom joke here>

 
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Any thoughts on MKC? Managing to stay positive even today, just generally strong, completely dominates its market, and could be a fairly defensive play if we do get a larger correction. Hit one of my screens last week and the more I look at it, the more I like it. Boring, sure, but we need some boring in our lives.

 
Plorfu said:
Any thoughts on MKC? Managing to stay positive even today, just generally strong, completely dominates its market, and could be a fairly defensive play if we do get a larger correction. Hit one of my screens last week and the more I look at it, the more I like it. Boring, sure, but we need some boring in our lives.
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Like them very much. Defensive plays not very popular in this thread, particularly in a bull market, but it's hard to get hurt owning well-run companies like this.

 
Plorfu said:
Any thoughts on MKC? Managing to stay positive even today, just generally strong, completely dominates its market, and could be a fairly defensive play if we do get a larger correction. Hit one of my screens last week and the more I look at it, the more I like it. Boring, sure, but we need some boring in our lives.
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@Worm likes their steak seasoning

 
Bob Sacamano said:
I suspect a lot of Tech takes a hit from this FB incident, as fear of regulation over use of information will be significant.  How much money do you think Google is making off of the information they gather from your actions?  Much of that is potentially at risk.  Do you think this administration has an appetite to regulate anything?  Nothing they've shown so far indicates they do.  Though if there's one area Trump would love to stick it to, it is Tech.

But if you think autonomous vehicles are about to be a thing, and I don't know how anyone can think differently right now, do you think Waymo won't be one of the huge winners from that shift?  A shift that will probably give them a significant share of: personal automobile sales, commercial vehicle sales, ride sharing/taxi services... what else?  The multi-billion $ shakeup of the auto insurance industry ('cause how do you think you're going to insure your self-driving Waymo car? You think Google's going to let that money walk?).  Others?

And those are all cash outflows realizing no gains right now.  How far away do you think they are from capitalizing on that?  How much of that is baked into this price?  IF there's a stock that looks "cheap" to me right now, it's GOOGL.  But that doesn't mean there won't be short term pain while all this shakes out.  Personally, no way I'd sell what I'm holding.  Buying in/buying more?  Personal decision.  But if we see $900s again because of all of this, I might have to send a skilled fellator to Zuckerberg as a thank you. <insert ______'s mom joke here>
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"Frosty's"?

 
Between Trump starting trade wars and the high likelihood of him being indicted soon for high crimes and treason, I'm thinking this is the beginning of the end for this run, and may start moving everything to cash. Thoughts?

 
NajehHejan said:
Between Trump starting trade wars and the high likelihood of him being indicted soon for high crimes and treason, I'm thinking this is the beginning of the end for this run, and may start moving everything to cash. Thoughts?
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A) I don’t think he’ll be impeached/indicted/etc... I hate the guy as does everyone else, but let’s remove those glasses for a little, it’s not happening.

B) Tax reform has already gone through. The biggest fear right now are his trade policies - if he was any of the aforementioned, I’d pile the #### in on any dip - the political uncertainty would be removed, trade war fears gone, etc. etc..

 
FB showing cracks, GOOG showing cracks... IMO, tech is priced for the Goldilocks scenario right now, it’s just run and run and run - while tech tanking feels unlikely, I think at the least the waters are going to stay choppy in the near future. I stick with my late cycle view, and I don’t think they have enough runway left to justify their prices right now.

Over the long horizon (ignoring cycles, boom/busts, looking 10-15 years down the road), the Fangs, chip makers, cloud stocks are all buys, but they will see some pressure coming sooner than most thought... IMO of course. 

 
fantasycurse42 said:
HELLO, EXACTLY!!! 

Am I the only person or robot on Earth paying attention to this?

Casinos would prob have the odds of a trade war right now lined at +2,000... I'd take that bet and cover around +500.
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:whistle:

It would be down to about +800 right now. 

Feels like a negotiation tactic that’s about to go wrong.

He’s absolutely going to slap tariffs down on China - so we need to look at possible outcomes afterwards:

1) They go after our farmers, Trump retaliates, trade war is underway.

2) They do nothing, Trump feels emboldened- he slaps more tariffs down.

3)

4)

Anyone else? What other outcomes are there here? 

I did some reading on Trump over the last week - he’s been #####ing about our trade deficit, China, America getting #### on, etc. since the 80’s... I’m starting to believe he wants a trade war.

 
NajehHejan said:
Between Trump starting trade wars and the high likelihood of him being indicted soon for high crimes and treason, I'm thinking this is the beginning of the end for this run, and may start moving everything to cash. Thoughts?
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Indicted for high crimes and treason?  Want to walk me through that claim a bit?

 
fantasycurse42 said:
:whistle:

It would be down to about +800 right now. 

Feels like a negotiation tactic that’s about to go wrong.

He’s absolutely going to slap tariffs down on China - so we need to look at possible outcomes afterwards:

1) They go after our farmers, Trump retaliates, trade war is underway.

2) They do nothing, Trump feels emboldened- he slaps more tariffs down.

3)

4)

Anyone else? What other outcomes are there here? 

I did some reading on Trump over the last week - he’s been #####ing about our trade deficit, China, America getting #### on, etc. since the 80’s... I’m starting to believe he wants a trade war.
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Going to be a whole lot of fun paying $2,500 for the new iPhone once China fights back on Dump.  China controls cobalt processing at the moment.  Good luck finding another source for lithium-ion battery production.

 
Don't Noonan said:
Indicted for high crimes and treason?  Want to walk me through that claim a bit?
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This is the country YOUR president wants to get into a tariff war with?   

COBALT derives its name from Kobold, a mischievous German goblin who, according to legend, lurks underground. For centuries it vexed medieval miners by looking like a valuable ore that subsequently turned into worthless—and sometimes noxious—rubble. Once again it is threatening to cause trouble, this time in the growing market for batteries for electric vehicles (EVs), each of which uses about 10kg of cobalt. The source of mischief is no longer in Germany, though, but in China.

It is widely known that more than half of the world’s cobalt reserves and production are in one dangerously unstable country, the Democratic Republic of Congo. What is less well known is that four-fifths of the cobalt sulphates and oxides used to make the all-important cathodes for lithium-ion batteries are refined in China. (Much of the other 20% is processed in Finland, but its raw material, too, comes from a mine in Congo, majority-owned by a Chinese firm, China Molybdenum.)

On March 14th concerns about China’s grip on Congo’s cobalt production deepened when GEM, a Chinese battery maker, said it would acquire a third of the cobalt shipped by Glencore, the world’s biggest producer of the metal, between 2018 and 2020—equivalent to almost half of the world’s 110,000-tonne production in 2017. This is likely to add momentum to a rally that has pushed the price of cobalt up from an average of $26,500 a tonne in 2016 to above $90,000 a tonne.

It is not known whether non-Chinese battery, EV or consumer-electronics manufacturers have done similar, unannounced deals with Glencore. But Sam Jaffe of Cairn Energy Research Advisors, a consultancy, says it will be a severe blow to some firms. He likens the outcome of the deal to a game of musical chairs in which Chinese battery manufacturers have taken all but one of the seats. “Everybody else is frantically looking for that last empty chair.”

Mr Jaffe doubts the cobalt grab is an effort by Chinese firms to corner or manipulate the market for speculative ends. Instead, he says, they are likely to be driven by a “desperate need” to fulfil China’s ambitious plans to step up production of EVs.

Others see it more ominously. George Heppel of CRU, a consultancy, says that, in addition to GEM sweeping up such a sizeable chunk of Glencore’s output, China Moly may eventually ship its Congo cobalt home rather than to Finland, giving China as much as 95% of the cobalt-chemicals market. “A lot of our clients are South Korean and Japanese tech firms and it’s a big concern of theirs that so much of the world’s cobalt sulphate comes from China.” Memories are still fresh of a maritime squabble in 2010, during which China restricted exports of rare-earth metals vital to Japanese tech firms. China produces about 85% of the world’s rare earths.

Few analysts expect the cobalt market to soften soon. Production in Congo is likely to increase in the next few years, but some investment may be deterred by a recent five-fold leap in royalties on cobalt. Investment elsewhere is limited because cobalt is almost always mined alongside copper or nickel. Even at current prices, the quantities needed are not enough to justify production for cobalt alone.

But demand could explode if EVs surge in popularity. Mr Heppel says that, though most cobalt is currently mined for batteries in smartphones and for superalloys inside jet engines (see chart), its use for EVs could jump from 9,000 tonnes in 2017 to 107,000 tonnes in 2026.
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General Malaise said:
Going to be a whole lot of fun paying $2,500 for the new iPhone once China fights back on Dump.  China controls cobalt processing at the moment.  Good luck finding another source for lithium-ion battery production.
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Surprised AAPL is holding up so well today. 

This goes back to an earlier comment I made a few weeks ago where I said big money feels comfortable hiding out in Apple during volatility.

 
Bob Sacamano said:
I suspect a lot of Tech takes a hit from this FB incident, as fear of regulation over use of information will be significant.  How much money do you think Google is making off of the information they gather from your actions?  Much of that is potentially at risk.  Do you think this administration has an appetite to regulate anything?  Nothing they've shown so far indicates they do.  Though if there's one area Trump would love to stick it to, it is Tech.

But if you think autonomous vehicles are about to be a thing, and I don't know how anyone can think differently right now, do you think Waymo won't be one of the huge winners from that shift?  A shift that will probably give them a significant share of: personal automobile sales, commercial vehicle sales, ride sharing/taxi services... what else?  The multi-billion $ shakeup of the auto insurance industry ('cause how do you think you're going to insure your self-driving Waymo car? You think Google's going to let that money walk?).  Others?

And those are all cash outflows realizing no gains right now.  How far away do you think they are from capitalizing on that?  How much of that is baked into this price?  IF there's a stock that looks "cheap" to me right now, it's GOOGL.  But that doesn't mean there won't be short term pain while all this shakes out.  Personally, no way I'd sell what I'm holding.  Buying in/buying more?  Personal decision.  But if we see $900s again because of all of this, I might have to send a skilled fellator to Zuckerberg as a thank you. <insert ______'s mom joke here>
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I agree with all of this but think there will be some short term pain.  Would like to lock in profits and buy back later but on the fence.

 
Not saying you shouldn't do it. Just something I always wonder when I see people say they want to sell out of short term turmoil and buy back in lower. 

 
culdeus said:
@siffoin

In your estimation how long can SPX stay below 2700 before you would call a flip?  Is 2800 important?  
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This is a difficult question to answer.  What kind of time frame are we talking?  Hourly, Daily, Weekly, Monthly?  I mean that one monthly chart I showed a while back with the VLT Trends going back to 1995...well we'd need to get to the end of the month on that one at the very least and then see.  But that chart is so far from a major turn I can tell you there is ZERO chance it would turn this month. 

If we're talking a daily/weekly chart.  The canary isn't dead - yet.  But it's Oh So Close.

Another question: How old are you.  I mean if you're 25 and have $1000 invested - my answer might be one thing.  If you're 60 and have $5m invested and need $6m to retire my answer is another.

Am I concerned overall?  YES! But 90% of concern is half my nature.

I think you guys should have a thought through plan on what you will do (or not do) and when you will do it (or not do it).

We're all likely taking some body blows right now.  But again your ability to overcome the emotion of the immediate pain of a ST loss will benefit you long term as long as you have that thought through plan of action.  

First to fall over when the atmosphere is less than perfect
Your sensibilities are shaken by the slightest defect
You live you life like a canary in a coalmine
You get so dizzy even walking in a straight line

Re: $FB.  I'm more than willing to place small bets that I think MIGHT pay off in a big way.  This is one I'm working on.  I might be wrong.  I hope I'm right.

 
siffoin said:
This is a difficult question to answer.  What kind of time frame are we talking?  Hourly, Daily, Weekly, Monthly?  I mean that one monthly chart I showed a while back with the VLT Trends going back to 1995...well we'd need to get to the end of the month on that one at the very least and then see.  But that chart is so far from a major turn I can tell you there is ZERO chance it would turn this month. 

If we're talking a daily/weekly chart.  The canary isn't dead - yet.  But it's Oh So Close.

Another question: How old are you.  I mean if you're 25 and have $1000 invested - my answer might be one thing.  If you're 60 and have $5m invested and need $6m to retire my answer is another.

Am I concerned overall?  YES! But 90% of concern is half my nature.

I think you guys should have a thought through plan on what you will do (or not do) and when you will do it (or not do it).

We're all likely taking some body blows right now.  But again your ability to overcome the emotion of the immediate pain of a ST loss will benefit you long term as long as you have that thought through plan of action.  

First to fall over when the atmosphere is less than perfect
Your sensibilities are shaken by the slightest defect
You live you life like a canary in a coalmine
You get so dizzy even walking in a straight line

Re: $FB.  I'm more than willing to place small bets that I think MIGHT pay off in a big way.  This is one I'm working on.  I might be wrong.  I hope I'm right.
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Now if I tell you that you suffer from delusions
You pay your analyst to reach the same conclusions

 
Anybody playing QID? Seems with the facebook issues possibly affecting the tech sector, the trade issues, and the nasdaq being at all time highs it might be worth a look?

I bought 300 shares at 11.65 today.

 
$3B of goods in Chinese tariffs - that seems like a very soft response... Honestly, if it wasn’t Friday, I’m a buyer on that kind of response.

I think the market is flat to green today. 

 
dschuler said:
Anyone else think it’s odd oil companies are performing so poorly with oil above $65?
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Oil has been curious. I only have two oil stocks but they are down from their peak while oil has risen in price since those peaks. I got into oil for the dividends so I’m just riding the dividend wave, however the lack of upward movement is curious. I’m assuming it has to do with a “strong” dollar compared to a weak one. Maybe one will budge and see dramatic movement. :shrug:

 
We need to keep selling, here is why:

”Pretend” our POTUS is an overgrown child with a bad temper who makes impulse decisions. Now, if you have a misbehaved child and continue to reward this child no matter what he does, his behavior will stay the course - selling in the market is the equivalent to taking something away from this child, if they keep buying, the behavior won’t change. Unfortunately, this market can’t sell for more than a few days without a buying frenzy taking place. Short term, no big deal, but if he keeps digging, we’re gonna hit a pipe. Once he takes a more rational approach to trade, then the buying can resume. 

I don’t think the above will happen and that’s why I’m more cautious now than I’ve been in a long time.

 
I’ll give him this much, and this is prob what has made him a good businessman/negotiator over his life. He isn’t afraid to call a bluff. 

Right now he’s thinking to himself “don’t buy this market, go ahead & sell it, I dare you!”

Sadly, he’s prob right.

 
I'm having a hard time trusting the market right now.  Ended up slightly padding my exposure to gold and silver yesterday.   We are here at potentially the very beginning of a trade war and our markets decide to go up?   I'm happy as I am invested in the market--but I am thinking that I might take out some profits if the market stays stable or goes up. I worry that the soft Chinese response to the tariffs may have only been a warning shot.  Even if I'm misreading the situation---the market has already made me a healthy profit--and I'd rather pull some out then to let it all ride.  Too many hard to predict moving parts for a fairly novice investor like me.  One of those moving parts is a stubborn and fairly childish Potus. 

 
Sputnikv8 said:
:(
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Silly me thought I was getting a discount buying in the red market before the close yesterday.  Trading at a PE of this years earnings of less than 5 with 20-40% growth across the board.  I think this might be this years Nvidia, which probably means everyone here should short it because I’m wrong 90% of the time. The CEO will be on CNBC today at 11. 

 
I remember when we didn't trade with those Red China commies at all. That's when lots of stuff here said "made in Taiwan".

Sure, prices / inflation will go up. It happens.

I'll be buying some Micron here once it stops falling.

 
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