Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
Stock Thread (29 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
culdeus
Footballguy
A lot of places won't let online traders buy penny stocks. For a few reasons, one it's expensive AF for them to make the trade as it can be tough to get the things filled and may need manual routing. If that's the question.
some would rather you take some sort of training course or talk to a person about this first.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Same (but for FF news), IB wouldn't let me buy this stuff either, had to check through other accounts, Schwab did. I'm in for .295 
2019 prob the easiest investing year any of us will ever see in our lifetime. Pretty hard to have had a bad investment this year (bonds, stocks, gold, really didn't matter). I only have one loser (#### you NIO, never buying into a 60 Minute puff piece again).
Hope you all enjoyed a solid 2019.
culdeus
Footballguy
We thought the same thing in 2018 at this point. Helps to start the year off a massive dip. I prefer to look back to 2018 start point. Or the Mayan calendar works too
2019 prob the easiest investing year any of us will ever see in our lifetime. Pretty hard to have had a bad investment this year (bonds, stocks, gold, really didn't matter). I only have one loser (#### you NIO, never buying into a 60 Minute puff piece again).
Hope you all enjoyed a solid 2019.
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
I don't know how returns look when you do this, but it makes sense. A lot of this year's early gains were just making back losses. If you bought in Dec/Jan, that's one thing, but for positions held pre-dip, it's a false sense of success.
culdeus
Footballguy
It will be one of the few years though that bonds and stocks did well, which hasn't happened in awhile.
Bossman
Footballguy
Just dipping my toes until I'm more confident....
I sold 20 puts of AUPH @ $5 strike / expires Dec 20th.
Paid me a $2400 premium.
Stock promptly shot up to $15 a share. Thinking I'm good here.
Last edited by a moderator:
chet
Footballguy
Buy them back if you want to protect yourself against an implosion. They can't be very expensive after a huge pop and only two weeks left.
Bossman
Footballguy
I hadn't even considered this. Lock in profit and move on to the next one.
This just seems like free money. I kept looking at it like there must be something that I'm missing.
Nope. Free money. I wish that I sold 100 puts instead of just 20. Would have been an easy $12k.
Rattle and Hum
Footballguy
Still in thiso one? I feel it needs some time to repair but this $7.50 area may prove buyable here.Thinking those $7.50 options from back in the summer might be getting sold.
McBokonon
Footballguy
Yep. They’re chugging along just fine so I’m just holding onto and occasionally adding to it. Hopefully they announce their IBM/MetLife thing in the next year or so. One great thing about the $0.00 transaction fees is I can add some shares here and there with dividends from other stocks in the same IRA, something I would never do before.
Last edited by a moderator:
I like selling puts. It is like free money if you are willing to buy the underlying at the strike price. But I agree with exiting the position and taking profit. Your downside risk is huge should the price collapse. It’s unlikeky, sure. But your gains are capped. Might as well take some high percentage of those gains, free up the cash that secured the put, and remove the risk, rather than hold for two more weeks to squeeze out the last few percentage points of gain.
Rattle and Hum
Footballguy
if he needs the cash maybe take it off. otherwise, the est $130 it will cost to buy these back represents 1.3% of his $10,000 at risk. That's like 30% apy on that $10K. Nice trade either way.
"There is no such thing as a free lunch".
Let's recap- this stock is a highly speculative Canadian biotech company which was trading close to your strike price during much of last month. During much of the month prior, it was lower than your strike price. So, assuming this trade is legit, you sold puts just prior to make-or-break trial news that came out in your favor, more than doubling the stock price. The reason those puts were so "juicy" is because it just as easily could have been a disaster. Assuming you didn't have any insider info., while it seems "easy" in hindsight, it was more just a case of extremely good luck.
Please don't take offense, but reading some of your recent posts in here (and earlier regarding TVIX and the like) makes me skeptical that you have a firm grasp on what you're really doing and I don't like to see people get hurt.
Last edited by a moderator:
KCitons
Footballguy
Bossman
Footballguy
No offense taken. I've said in many posts that I'm a noob ...and I'm not attempting to hide the fact that I absolutely do NOT have a firm grasp with all the dumb questions I'm asking. (and I very much appreciate my fellow FBG helping me understand all this)
So the noob "got lucky" here and if I'm reading this correctly, to the tune of $2346.
Symbol Last Price $ Change $ Change % Qty Price Paid $ Days Gain $ Total Gain $ Total Gain % Value $
AUPH Dec 20 19 $5 Put 0.03 0.00 0.00% -20 1.205 0.00 2,346.56 96.83% -50.00
So "last price" listed here mean that I could get out of this contract for .03 a share now? ... so $60?
I assume that would be considered "covering" the same as shorting a stock?
culdeus
Footballguy
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
The action you want is Buy to Close. Right now there is no bid, but the ask is .05.
Your put position is considered a short position. It is similar to covering a stock you shorted. Both end your exposure.
Your put position is considered a short position. It is similar to covering a stock you shorted. Both end your exposure.
Bossman
Footballguy
So I'm on to the next one.
$11 stock price / sold puts @ $7.50 strike price / Jan 17 / Paid me $2.00
So someone PAID me $2.08 per share, to insure that their $11 stock won't fall below $7.50 in a month.
At $7.50 and I already collected $2.00.... puts my break even at $5.50
On Jan 17th, I don't lose unless the stock is below $5.50?
Just seems too easy.
What is the underlying stock? Is there an earnings date in between then and now? Is there some other event between now and then which could send the stock price plummeting? Usually you will not get such rich premiums unless there is a chance of wild volatility. So you need to do your due diligence before selling the put.
Bossman
Footballguy
Due diligence done. They are seeking FDA approval for a drug that is to be announced soon.
I like my underlying stock like I like my women .... volatile and "juicy".
Bossman
Footballguy
Thanks, in for 250 shares. Looks like a big move will be happening on 12/27 one way or another. Typically, I would prefer to buy a straddle (buying both puts and calls) in anticipation of the move, but the premiums are ridiculously high so selling puts is the next closest thing. I decided to just go ahead an buy it rather than sell the puts. If it moves up, it could REALLY move up so I'm rolling the dice on a bigger gain. In that sense, your strategy to sell puts is a safer bet in that you're netting premium right off the bat and getting a lower cost basis should it crash.
Bossman
Footballguy
Good luck P.pecorino said:
Here's where selling the puts seems like a no brainer; (using round numbers)
I sold 10 puts at $2 ... paid me $2k
With an initial investment of $0
Stock balloons to $20 and I keep that $2k. Stock tanks and I still keep that $2k.
Stock crumbles to $5.50 and I break even.
I only lose if it falls below $5.50. .... at $4.50 I'm down $1k
You're in for 250 shares @ $12 , stock balloons to $20 and you will net the same $2k that I already got... $8 x 250
With an initial investment of $3k
Stock crumbles to $5.50 and you're down ( -$1625) .... (I broke even here)
at $4.50 you're down $1875
I keep saying this, but I must be missing something.
Run your numbers if the PPS goes to $1 or if if goes to $30.
Edit to add: also, selling 10 cash secured puts at $7.50 requires $7500 in principal.
Last edited by a moderator:
Bossman
Footballguy
Fair enough.
should the stock drop to $3.30, we've both lost about the same. Lower than that, I take a beating.
==========
So with my position, selling 10 puts, I'm in a better position than you if the $12 stock stays between $3.30 and $20 now until Jan 17th.
Your position, buying 250 shares, is beneficial to mine if that $12 stock should land above $20 or below $3.30
.
I feel the $3.30 to $20 range is more probable.
Still feels like free money to me. We'll see.
ditka...mike ditka
Footballguy
Someone here will know better than me, but with stocks having an experimental drug seeking FDA approval, arent they either likely to come down to close to 0 if they dont get it, and shoot way up if they get it?
Good luck, of course. But I hope you are willing to lose that principal. For a "first stock purchase ever!" I would have recommended something like Apple or some other company that is going to be solid and less volatile. If you are OK with swinging for the fences and the possibility of striking out (with much higher odds than hitting a home run), then so be it. But you should enter those trades with eyes wide open.
All true. One other note. By being in the stock (my entry point was $11.80, by the way), I have the flexibility to sell and exit the position very easily. Now I am going to let my $200 profit ride [the current PPS is $12.63] since I bought to roll the dice on the 12/27 announcement, but I have more flexibility than you do. Your puts have probably not moved much--probably so little that any gain would be eaten by the transaction fees since option trading is costlier.
Now $200 might seem like chump change--who would exit a two-day position for that? But stated another way, I've got a 7% ROI in two days so this meager profit is more a function of my just dipping my toes in the water. It's a nice quick return while selling those puts commits you to holding until the event date, most likely. Again, don't get me wrong--I like selling puts but you are making them out to be "free money" when in fact, there is significant risk and not a lot of flexibility by using them. I've found put spreads, in particular, to be very difficult to get into and out of. Puts are a bit easier but still less nimble that owning the stock outright.
I hope you can afford to lose the money. Only buy shares of single companies if you can afford the loss.
siffoin
Footballguy
He can always just buy back the Puts at anytime. He isn't required to hold till expiration. His Puts will move with the market it's not a 1:1 with stock but similarly close. The bid:ask seems reasonable too. I think his strategy is sound.
Now imo on these Pharma stocks with significant impending news - my experience has been a crapshoot. I've had some massive gainers ---like MASSIVE (more than 20x). But I've also had some (one in particular) where the company received FDA approval for a major enhancement to a medical condition and the stock tanked. You can do all the research in the world have every duck in a line and still lose. I'm not saying that's going to happen - it's just that sure things sometimes aren't even when they've fulfilled their promise. I hope you all kill it!
My point is that trading stock is easier in that 1) the fees are smaller if not zero nowadays, 2) the bid / ask spread is typically far narrower which means you can get a better price and 3) the volumes are higher so again you're more likely to get a higher price. Also, in this case since the value in the put is largely what the stock will do after 12/27, the price move is nowhere near 1 to 1 with the stock price, not even close. Looks like it is about 1 to 2, in this case but the bid / ask is so wide, it is almost impossible to tell. In some instances it is one-to-one, but in this case he is getting a fat premium to be the bag-holder come 12/27. The price beforehand (plus or minus 10% in the stock price) is not going to do much at all for the value of the puts. That's the price for doing business in these kinds of trades.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Phase One!!!!
dkp993
Footballguy
Most certainly. I’m not banking my retirement on these. Lol. I’ve also invested in some etf’s and other stuff. I spread my first time allotment of “fun investment” cash across a few things. Just dipping my toes into this world with the intention of learning.
Last edited by a moderator:
dkp993
Footballguy
Ted Lange as your Bartender
Footballguy
Anyone in banking here that can explain these overnight repo operations by the Fed? Something feels very wrong about all of this.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
GoBirds
Footballguy
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/own-stocks-thank-the-fed-and-dont-expect-the-next-us-recession-to-start-anytime-soon-says-bca-research-2019-12-11?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo
These type articles half make sense and half are very scary and seems like warning signs of too much optimism.
These type articles half make sense and half are very scary and seems like warning signs of too much optimism.
chet
Footballguy
Conf call tomorrow. Here are the dial in details for anyone who cares. Buying more shares today.
@Otis get some.
chet
Footballguy
bshell27
Footballguy
I put another $1,000 in TD account to "play" with this kind of stock. Go all in with CYDY and hold for how long?
I'm still riding COBCF (loss of $422 so far on a $500 investment)
chet
Footballguy
I bought more today and will continue to add while it's around these levels. They could announce a distribution deal any day which should be very positive. OTOH, the longer they go without a deal, the more dilutive financing they have to incur. So yeah, I'd buy and watch.
Just passing down advise to someone who invests in their first stocks ever.
The investment in question is a bet, not the result of an elaborated research or a stock in a special situation. Just a pure bet. That’s why I pointed it out.
chet
Footballguy
Btw, I hope you are right! I threw some money at it after reading up on the company.
still, for me it is a bet. Chances of the price dropping to 0.05: 95%. Chances of it going above 5.00: 5%.
I am willing to take these odds since my portfolio is pretty conservative atm and I also don’t need the money I put into it.
Was just looking out for a mate making his first stock purchase. No hard feelings, chet!
Btw, boring but very solid: VNA (Vonovia).
Last edited by a moderator:
