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Stock Thread (13 Viewers)

chet said:
Boom or bust with this one:  CYDY.  Biotech drug maker awaiting FDA approval for new HIV drug among other things.  Here's an article from Seeking Alpha that came out last month.

FYI:  Stocks that trade @ ~$0.34 are more likely to go to $0 than $1.  I think this will be an exception.
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Up 3.22% for me so far!

 
Capella said:
Hopeful. Most predictions I’ve read sound down, but the previous two were super positive prediction and the stock went off a small cliff so maybe it’ll flip. Lol 
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Stock has been trading down into earnings so I am betting the news is baked in.  We shall see.  Hoping to see it back above $1800 by end of week.

 
Headline right now “Microsoft earnings trounce expectations and quarterly profit tops 10 billion” 

and then after hours Microsoft Corp. -0.46%
 

I’ll never truly understand this  

 
Capella said:
Headline right now “Microsoft earnings trounce expectations and quarterly profit tops 10 billion” 

and then after hours Microsoft Corp. -0.46%
 

I’ll never truly understand this  
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Happens all the time. I’m just glad they’re not selling the news even harder. I love $MSFT, just keep adding every year.

 
That quarter ran Jul 1 - Sept 30, yes?

Actually more impressive, if so. Didn't the tax credit cut in half 6/30? Would think some draw-forward into Q2 from that.

 
Capella said:
Headline right now “Microsoft earnings trounce expectations and quarterly profit tops 10 billion” 

and then after hours Microsoft Corp. -0.46%
I’ll never truly understand this  
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But the rumor, sell the news.  Obviously some expected even better earnings.

 
Plorfu said:
This is my seemingly annual post to come in here and talk about what a studly beast CDW is. Reported this morning, beat and raised. In the two years since I first asked about them here, they've become my second biggest holding (and that's only because Disney went nuts in the last couple weeks.) And I don't really see them slowing down and it feels like nobody is really paying attention yet.

On a broader note, and it's one data point, but it's certainly not a BAD sign that they raised their guidance since it most likely means businesses are spending money upgrading their tech.
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They’ve since been added to the S&P 500 which caused another spike. They reported this morning: Beat on top and bottom, raised the dividend 28.8%. 

 
Navin Johnson said:
Got $12k sitting in my etrade account (thanks AABA).  Wanna start playing around with this stuff.  Can you explain this to me like I'm Shuke?
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I'm a noob so take my thoughts as that ... of a noob;

TVIX (2x VIX) swing the opposite of markets (more specifically spy) typically increases in value when markets go down.

Conversely, TVIX value will sink when markets go up. 

When markets are volatile like they have been this past year or more, TVIX swings can be pretty extreme one way or the other. 

Because of the 5%, 10%, and even 15% swings in one day, it makes for a quick score ... and allows one to profit even when markets have a down day.

Now the other thing to keep in mind. TVIX has a certain decay factor meaning it continues to lose value despite of markets.

If you look at the life of TVIX, it's been a bumpy spiral down for forever. It just continues to reverse split x10 over and over and over again.

Bottom line, fun vessel to "go long" but for a short term (day or two trade. Maybe a week) to try to time a dip in the market and make some $$. 

... or shorting TVIX long term as this always seems to seek it's lowest low and fall beyond. Just a bit risky as with shorting anything ... there is no limit to how much you might lose. Conventional thinking might have you believe markets, now at all time highs, will crash and TVIX will soar to the moon ... which is why I've not the nuggets to go hog wild shorting it.

I've been able to time the dips and spikes pretty well although I'm currently holding a bag.

Looking for a market dip now to unload. Either way, I'm still way ahead. Others in here, not so much. 

 
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Bossman said:
I'm a noob so take my thoughts as that ... of a noob;

TVIX (2x VIX) swing the opposite of markets (more specifically spy) typically increases in value when markets go down.

Conversely, TVIX value will sink when markets go up. 

When markets are volatile like they have been this past year or more, TVIX swings can be pretty extreme one way or the other. 

Because of the 5%, 10%, and even 15% swings in one day, it makes for a quick score ... and allows one to profit even when markets have a down day.

Now the other thing to keep in mind. TVIX has a certain decay factor meaning it continues to lose value despite of markets.

If you look at the life of TVIX, it's been a bumpy spiral down for forever. It just continues to reverse split x10 over and over and over again.

Bottom line, fun vessel to "go long" but for a short term (day or two trade. Maybe a week) to try to time a dip in the market and make some $$. 

... or shorting TVIX long term as this always seems to seek it's lowest low and fall beyond. Just a bit risky as with shorting anything ... there is no limit to how much you might lose. Conventional thinking might have you believe markets, now at all time highs, will crash and TVIX will soar to the moon ... which is why I've not the nuggets to go hog wild with it.

I've been able to time the dips and spikes pretty well although I'm currently holding a bag.

Looking for a market dip now to unload. Either way, I'm still way ahead. Others in here, not so much. 
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There are bear funds that ladder spreads on tvix.  Of course the fees are astronomical

 
Bossman said:
I'm a noob so take my thoughts as that ... of a noob;

TVIX (2x VIX) swing the opposite of markets (more specifically spy) typically increases in value when markets go down.

Conversely, TVIX value will sink when markets go up. 

When markets are volatile like they have been this past year or more, TVIX swings can be pretty extreme one way or the other. 

Because of the 5%, 10%, and even 15% swings in one day, it makes for a quick score ... and allows one to profit even when markets have a down day.

Now the other thing to keep in mind. TVIX has a certain decay factor meaning it continues to lose value despite of markets.

If you look at the life of TVIX, it's been a bumpy spiral down for forever. It just continues to reverse split x10 over and over and over again.

Bottom line, fun vessel to "go long" but for a short term (day or two trade. Maybe a week) to try to time a dip in the market and make some $$. 

... or shorting TVIX long term as this always seems to seek it's lowest low and fall beyond. Just a bit risky as with shorting anything ... there is no limit to how much you might lose. Conventional thinking might have you believe markets, now at all time highs, will crash and TVIX will soar to the moon ... which is why I've not the nuggets to go hog wild shorting it.

I've been able to time the dips and spikes pretty well although I'm currently holding a bag.

Looking for a market dip now to unload. Either way, I'm still way ahead. Others in here, not so much. 
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This all sounds correct. By the way, isn’t there something like “XIV” which is an inverted VIX which means you don’t have to short the VIX. Just buy XIV instead? But I’m just guessing here. 

 
Bossman said:
I'm a noob so take my thoughts as that ... of a noob;

TVIX (2x VIX) swing the opposite of markets (more specifically spy) typically increases in value when markets go down.

Conversely, TVIX value will sink when markets go up. 

When markets are volatile like they have been this past year or more, TVIX swings can be pretty extreme one way or the other. 

Because of the 5%, 10%, and even 15% swings in one day, it makes for a quick score ... and allows one to profit even when markets have a down day.

Now the other thing to keep in mind. TVIX has a certain decay factor meaning it continues to lose value despite of markets.

If you look at the life of TVIX, it's been a bumpy spiral down for forever. It just continues to reverse split x10 over and over and over again.

Bottom line, fun vessel to "go long" but for a short term (day or two trade. Maybe a week) to try to time a dip in the market and make some $$. 

... or shorting TVIX long term as this always seems to seek it's lowest low and fall beyond. Just a bit risky as with shorting anything ... there is no limit to how much you might lose. Conventional thinking might have you believe markets, now at all time highs, will crash and TVIX will soar to the moon ... which is why I've not the nuggets to go hog wild shorting it.

I've been able to time the dips and spikes pretty well although I'm currently holding a bag.

Looking for a market dip now to unload. Either way, I'm still way ahead. Others in here, not so much. 
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What instrument are you using to short?  Wouldn't a simple put limit your losses?  

 
Reading up on derivative products before I jump in.

Been sitting on STX stock since I did some work for them in the 90's.  Keep telling myself I'm going to dump them if it ever hits $70.  ANything wrong with writing covered calls in the meantime?  Thinking it would be like an extra dividend.

 
Navin Johnson said:
Reading up on derivative products before I jump in.

Been sitting on STX stock since I did some work for them in the 90's.  Keep telling myself I'm going to dump them if it ever hits $70.  ANything wrong with writing covered calls in the meantime?  Thinking it would be like an extra dividend.
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As long as you have a plan if your strike gets threatened, why not?

 
Rattle and Hum said:
Yes, but it might be below your $70 target. With volatility so low now it may not be worth giving up your upside potential. Say you write a $60 call and stock goes there in a week, what would you do?
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New to the practical side of this...would I get a notification if/when the buyer exercised?  Ideally I would want the strike as close to 70 as possible, even if it means selling the calls pretty cheap.  Something is better than nothing and the plan is to sell at that strike anyway.

 
Navin Johnson said:
New to the practical side of this...would I get a notification if/when the buyer exercised?  Ideally I would want the strike as close to 70 as possible, even if it means selling the calls pretty cheap.  Something is better than nothing and the plan is to sell at that strike anyway.
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You should get notified by broker. You typically would not have to worry about a short being exercised unless the stock was near your $70 strike price near expiration or if the stock was WELL above $70/share with no extrinsic value left. So, It looks like you could sell a March  2020 expiration $70 call for about $92 for every 100 shares you own. $195 out to June 2020.  Free $92-$195 if you are holding the shares either way. The downside is STX trades for more than $70.92-$71.95 because you will no longer participate in further gains. Seems fine to me. I know nothing about STX or whether it's a buy-out candidate. But, for sake of argument, lets say WDC offers to buy STX with a market value of $85/share. You have to decide if your $92-$195 (minus costs) would be worth the potential of losing out on those gains above @ $71. Don't forget to factor in taxes if this is not a sheltered account. Only you can answer if this is worth doing. Let us know if you make a move so we can follow along.

 
Does anyone know how dividends work? I mean, how long before I receive the dividend can I sell and still receive the dividend?

I have VDIGX and last year, the dividend money was in my account on 12/18... for both of my Vanguard funds. These funds payout big at the year end dividend payout.

Do I have to have these funds in my account on that day or is there a time period before 12/18 that I would still receive the dividend but not own as much of the fund as I do now?

I've never played around with this kind of thing and am unaware of the parameters. Also, when must I buy back into the fund the following year in order to receive the full dividend payout?

 
You can find dates for year end distributions on the Vanguard site, as well as estimates of how much it will be. But, on the xdiv date, the price will drop by the amount of the distribution (adjusted for whatever gain or loss the fund would have based on daily change in holdings) so you don't get some extra big payout by getting in for the distribution.  Also, when you buy a fund late in the year, a lot of capital gains are already built into the share price (since they are only distributed in Dec.). Your tax liability will be for the full year of gains regardless of when you bought. Q4 is a bad time to add to funds unless you wait til after the distribution. Otherwise you pay some taxes on gains that were already in the stock price when you bought.

https://www.kiplinger.com/article/taxes/T041-C005-S001-don-t-buy-a-tax-bill-with-a-mutual-fund.html

https://www.thebalance.com/buying-mutual-funds-before-distribution-payments-416999

 
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chet said:
Boom or bust with this one:  CYDY.  Biotech drug maker awaiting FDA approval for new HIV drug among other things.  Here's an article from Seeking Alpha that came out last month.

FYI:  Stocks that trade @ ~$0.34 are more likely to go to $0 than $1.  I think this will be an exception.
Click to expand...
Don't know if this will affect the price in the short run but it could be very positive in the long run.  Press release.

The big mover in the short run will be if they announce a distribution deal for the combination HIV therapy.  The CEO has said a deal is coming.

 
chet said:
Don't know if this will affect the price in the short run but it could be very positive in the long run.  Press release.

The big mover in the short run will be if they announce a distribution deal for the combination HIV therapy.  The CEO has said a deal is coming.
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I put in for $500 at .32 a week ago.  Small amount.  I did the same thing with COBCF.  That was a $450 loss.  Hoping for different results, but small enough it doesn't bother me.  

 
bshell27 said:
I put in for $500 at .32 a week ago.  Small amount.  I did the same thing with COBCF.  That was a $450 loss.  Hoping for different results, but small enough it doesn't bother me.  
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I'd suggest you just hold it

I will post if I decide to sell

 
I know nothing of stocks.  Never bought a single stock until recently using Robinhood.

Saw a stock tumble 70% in one day so I decided to throw everything (only started with 100 bucks woohoo) on it.  SLDB. Solid Biosciences.

Up like 30% since I did.  Beginners luck.  Yayy

 
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ghostguy123 said:
I know nothing of stocks.  Never bought a single stock until recently using Robinhood.

Saw a stock tumble 70% in one day so I decided to throw everything (only started with 100 bucks woohoo) on it.  SLDB. Solid Biosciences.

Up like 30% since I did.  Beginners luck.  Yayy
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You can sometimes catch what's called a "dead-cat" bounce. I wouldn't try to make a living at it, even though it might be possible for the most nimble of us.

 
kevzilla said:
You can sometimes catch what's called a "dead-cat" bounce. I wouldn't try to make a living at it, even though it might be possible for the most nimble of us.
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I have no interest in putting any sort of serious money into any individual stocks.  Just screwing around.  Maybe I turn my 100 into 200 and I cash out.  Maybe I lose it all.

Seems a lot like gambling.

 
Bought some Trupanion last week but I was timid and only got a few shares. It’s already up 9%. Should’ve bought so much more. :kicksrock:   

 
McBokonon said:
Schwab looking to buy TD Ameritrade - could even be announced today.

I have my IRA's/brokerage at TD and moved my girlfriend's IRA's/SEP to Schwab from Merrill. I like Schwab so far, but I love TD's interface and wouldn't mind a second brokerage if I can get a few different research reports. Might look into Interactive Brokers or someplace else if this happens.
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I’m all in on Fidelity and it’s working great for me, but I’ve got almost every account there. It’s nice now that they are commission free. Got a bit lucky since my wife and my 401ks and her stock plan are with them. After January I’ll only have my wife’s previous 401k elsewhere but I’m going to roll it over. It’s really convenient having everything in one place.

 
Selling Puts

Dipping my toes in this. Seems like a good opportunity if you can find the right stock to trade as some giving much higher % than others.

I assume it's the risk factor. Anyone else selling puts to generate some income? Anything to share with a noob?

 
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