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I personally find it so funny how Jim Cramer and CNBC can be such shills sometimes.   We have a pandemic that has basically stagnated or crippled 3 of the world’s top 4 economies and has clearly effected the supply chains of many companies—and our super stretched out reacts by having a relatively nominal to mild correction—and they bring in Larry Kudlow (Cramers former television host) and try to tell everybody that it’s nothing to worry about.  Seriously—do people literally think and expect that markets should go up each and every day no matter what the hell is going on around the world?   

Kudow is sitting there confusing the stock market with the economy—saying that each family is making on average of $5k more this year. The problem is that the housing numbers that got released today show that the average price of housing this year has went up double the percentage that wages have risen.   They are all guilty of propping up this market in such artificial ways that defy any data or fundamentals.  I am bummed I didn’t get to play the volatility markets today—but I would not be surprised if the markets finished the day up.  

 
jvdesigns2002 said:
Just kinda putting my thoughts into words here—and I’d appreciate any responses.   I’ve never played the volatility indexes before—so some input would be really great.  My thoughts are this. Our markets are super stretched out and especially stretched out if you crunched the numbers in the weighted form of the market (amazon, google, apple..etc).  Basically—the top six companies and momentum have really been carrying the market—fundamentals are basically out the window.   If the Coronavirus economic impact effects these top six companies any more than they have already impacted Apple—I think todays volatility blip might be a warning shot of more to come.  My question is—are any of you guys playing the volatility indexes—and if so—what are your recommendations?  
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Just to expound on this, as today is a great day to explore.

Right now S&P = -0.9%

VIX = +11%

TVIX = +12%  Note this is a 2X VIX setup, so the tracking error is horrible.  If you want to see long term effects look at TVIX over a 5 year span.

EDV = +1.5%

TMF = +2.5%

SH = +.9%

And note that EDV, TMF, and SH all have good tracking to their benchmarks (poor tracking is why stuff like TVIX isn't available at Vanguard, etc.).  Certainly EDV and TMF are bond based (so they don't necessarily track negatively to stocks, but do much of the time) and SH is a direct bet against the market.  From that point of view how you hedge is up to you - pick your poison.

 
jvdesigns2002 said:
I personally find it so funny how Jim Cramer and CNBC can be such shills sometimes.   We have a pandemic that has basically stagnated or crippled 3 of the world’s top 4 economies and has clearly effected the supply chains of many companies—and our super stretched out reacts by having a relatively nominal to mild correction—and they bring in Larry Kudlow (Cramers former television host) and try to tell everybody that it’s nothing to worry about.  Seriously—do people literally think and expect that markets should go up each and every day no matter what the hell is going on around the world?   

Kudow is sitting there confusing the stock market with the economy—saying that each family is making on average of $5k more this year. The problem is that the housing numbers that got released today show that the average price of housing this year has went up double the percentage that wages have risen.   They are all guilty of propping up this market in such artificial ways that defy any data or fundamentals.  I am bummed I didn’t get to play the volatility markets today—but I would not be surprised if the markets finished the day up.  
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Jim Cramer is a tap dancer.  Gets on stage and entertains.  Treating him as more than that is giving him way too much credit.

Kudlow certainly has political impetus to talk down economic dangers, so you know that's always baked in to his comments.  The reason housing is getting a bit more expensive is that lots of people are buying houses.  2020 is a banner year so far - supply/demand.  And not everyone is buying a house at the moment - that's going to help most Americans (and don't forget that the average is being pushed up by the few skyrocketing areas).  In Kudlow's defense, though, the LEI just came out and is up .8%.  That's good news looking down the road, which is where economists are generally looking. 

So much for the lack of data or fundamentals.   :P

 
On a pure stock comment VTR just came out with their quarterly, which was pretty horrid.  Of course, the stock has gone up 6% since then, so I guess the street expected horridly horrid.  Looking to dump it soon here.  I want to pick up some CCL, which looks like a prime candidate for an overreaction to the downside.  Just need to find a good crossover point...

 
Sand said:
I miss that here.  It was a mistake to kick those off.
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They weren't really kicked off. Many of the people who play just realized they enjoyed hanging out there more than here. If you ever decide you want to play, I'm pretty sure you know where they are. 

 
Sand said:
On a pure stock comment VTR just came out with their quarterly, which was pretty horrid.  Of course, the stock has gone up 6% since then, so I guess the street expected horridly horrid.  Looking to dump it soon here.  I want to pick up some CCL, which looks like a prime candidate for an overreaction to the downside.  Just need to find a good crossover point...
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Yeah, I've been watching this one after not buying at $57 a few weeks ago. i.e. kicking myself for not just buying and holding no matter how much the next couple of years are supposed to be.

 
Bob Sacamano said:
They weren't really kicked off. Many of the people who play just realized they enjoyed hanging out there more than here. If you ever decide you want to play, I'm pretty sure you know where they are. 
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I do and have on occasion.  It's just such a closed community I find it to be a bit of an exclusionary club at this point.

 
Sand said:
I do and have on occasion.  It's just such a closed community I find it to be a bit of an exclusionary club at this point.
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Well, that kinda sucks. I don't think intentionally so. I just think you interact more frequently with the same 15 or so people for 10-15 years and the familiarity those people have with each other can make it seem that way. I'm there as much as anybody, and I'd love to see you over there more. (You may wish to avoid the politics thread. I generally do)

 
Bob Sacamano said:
Well, that kinda sucks. I don't think intentionally so. I just think you interact more frequently with the same 15 or so people for 10-15 years and the familiarity those people have with each other can make it seem that way. I'm there as much as anybody, and I'd love to see you over there more. (You may wish to avoid the politics thread. I generally do)
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I don't think it's intentionally exclusionary, just that there is a huge amount of meta built up that I'm a way out of the loop on.  If that makes sense.

 
Looking at AMRN with earnings upcoming. Also intrigued by the big dip in AGRX. Considering MRK with dividend coming plus it seems reasonably priced (which is an oddity in this market.) GILD with some strong Call buying as well, maybe in hopes of a bump via Coronavirus. I’ve got pharma on the brain.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
@siffoin

Good timing on the GYPR. 

Kinda feels like volatility is getting ready to pick up. 
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My thoughts on $GYPR will move at what seems like a glacial pace.  I'm thiking weeks and months.  We've got to get $SPY below $320 just to get inside the far upper channel of the 10 year bull market. A one day or one week decline is but a passing shower.  There will be many up days and some hard down days to move towards what I would consider nominal value.  As I said...people will be ####ting their pants on a move towards $280-290ish.  Not even Orville Redenbocker is excited by this week.

 
FSAGX and IAU are the gold funds I have invested in previously, any reason to switch to GOLD or others? Haven’t been big in these in the  past but as we approach the election may lean more conservative and also our funds toward mortgage. 

 
GoBirds said:
FSAGX and IAU are the gold funds I have invested in previously, any reason to switch to GOLD or others? Haven’t been big in these in the  past but as we approach the election may lean more conservative and also our funds toward mortgage. 
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I've owned buckets of IAU for a while, best for long term holds with low fees. Taxed as a collectible, so be aware. More dangerous but more upside on gold would be GOLD; Barrick Gold, best miner stock, imo... I own a nice chunk of that too, want to buy more, but I'm being patient. Also, not taxed as a collectible, so that's a big benefit. 

 
fantasycurse42 said:
I've owned buckets of IAU for a while, best for long term holds with low fees. Taxed as a collectible, so be aware. More dangerous but more upside on gold would be GOLD; Barrick Gold, best miner stock, imo... I own a nice chunk of that too, want to buy more, but I'm being patient. Also, not taxed as a collectible, so that's a big benefit. 
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Didn’t know the bolded, what is that exactly?

 
Had a good month selling Feb 21 put options last month

... or maybe I'm just getting "lucky" with these.

Sold;

80  AGRX $2.50 strike @ $0.475 = paid me $3800 in premium

20 CVM $7.50 strike @ $1.10 = paid me $2200

30 NVAX $7 strike @ $0.96 = paid me $2880

$8880. Not bad for a months work.

Had one loser the previous month (WVE) that cost me $800 so I wont claim they are always winners.

Selling put options still of no interest to anyone in here? Is there a risk that I'm not considering?

I'll keep at it as long as its working out for me. Let me know how you guys do with CYDY.

 
Bossman said:
Had a good month selling Feb 21 put options last month

... or maybe I'm just getting "lucky" with these.

Sold;

80  AGRX $2.50 strike @ $0.475 = paid me $3800 in premium

20 CVM $7.50 strike @ $1.10 = paid me $2200

30 NVAX $7 strike @ $0.96 = paid me $2880

$8880. Not bad for a months work.

Had one loser the previous month (WVE) that cost me $800 so I wont claim they are always winners.

Selling put options still of no interest to anyone in here? Is there a risk that I'm not considering?

I'll keep at it as long as its working out for me. Let me know how you guys do with CYDY.
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Nice work. I love selling puts, do it all the time. I typically choose stocks that I wouldn’t mind owning and I tread lightly with the speculative biotechs. It just takes one to go from, say ten to two, which would dampen your enthusiasm for the practice.

To expound, I like to do “the wheel”: sell puts on stocks you wouldn’t mind owning. Collect premium. If they expire, rinse and repeat. If the stock drops and you are put shares, immediately sell covered calls, ideally at the same strike price as the puts, but on a big dip, this strike price is likely to be lower. You can still lose money, but it would only happen if the share price drops more than the premiums of the sold puts and the sold calls, combined. 

In your example, you laid around $50,000 in capital to sell those puts. Great ROI. In my case, I don’t usually play with more than $10000 plus I use lower beta stocks, so I’d be happy with half that rate of return, on the order of 10%, not like the 18% or so you’re grabbing.

 
Bossman said:
Selling put options still of no interest to anyone in here? Is there a risk that I'm not considering?

I'll keep at it as long as its working out for me. Let me know how you guys do with CYDY.
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Cash secured?  Seems like a lot of exposure to me. I'm not an options guy, though. 

 
Bossman said:
Had a good month selling Feb 21 put options last month

... or maybe I'm just getting "lucky" with these.

Sold;

80  AGRX $2.50 strike @ $0.475 = paid me $3800 in premium

20 CVM $7.50 strike @ $1.10 = paid me $2200

30 NVAX $7 strike @ $0.96 = paid me $2880

$8880. Not bad for a months work.

Had one loser the previous month (WVE) that cost me $800 so I wont claim they are always winners.

Selling put options still of no interest to anyone in here? Is there a risk that I'm not considering?

I'll keep at it as long as its working out for me. Let me know how you guys do with CYDY.
Click to expand...
Do you typically sell about three weeks out? That seems to be a sweet spot in my experience. Also, sounds like you are hesitant to buy them back before expiry. I’d encourage you to read up on that practice because it’s a good idea to take profits, depending on your risk tolerance. In terms of “getting lucky,” seems like that (not buying to close a position) could be a vulnerable blind spot for you.

 
Sand said:
Cash secured?  Seems like a lot of exposure to me. I'm not an options guy, though. 
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I assumed cash-secured. The exposure was about $50k which isn’t exorbitant, especially for an eight grand return. Not like he is selling puts on a triple digit stock. 

 
chet said:
Safe?  The following quotes are from this article.
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Great reference here. 
So my assumption is that combination therapy mean the majority or all of current HAART drugs are continued along with PRO140. Do you have a different understanding? In that case I wouldn’t expect any side effect advantage. The extra cost and addition of of the weekly shot will be barriers to more widespread adoption of PRO140.

Monotherapy is a different story, but I haven’t seen a plan for commercializatio from CYDY. If I understand correctly, mono therapy has only been trialed in patients who already have a low viral load from HAART.

 
chet said:
PR announcing approval to proceed with solid tumor basket trial which could lead to second BTD filing. 
@Whyatt why do you think this drug will never be commercialized for cancer?

@TLEF316 I’d be interested in your BIL’s thoughts on this PR. 
 

https://www.cytodyn.com/newsroom/press-releases/detail/387/cytodyn-receives-institutional-review-board-approval-to
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I had corrected my post to indicate that PRO140 would not be commercialized for cancer in 2020, in opposition to the 30 days mentioned in that PR article. 
The bar for getting cancer drugs approved used to be quite low, but still much higher than the few data points provided by CYDY. As there are currently more options available for cancer, the bar is for approval is rising. I’m not an expert in this area, but I don’t believe the CYCY basket trial will lead to approval of the drug for any indication either, only potential identify future targets.

 
Sand said:
:whistle:

Optionsellers.com

:whistle:

(We need a tombstone symbol to complete the imagery)
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For Bossman, or anyone selling puts, the potential for loss is perfectly identifiable. That article mentions selling uncovered calls (and unsecured puts) which, OK, break out the tombstones. But in the case of cash-secured puts, they are actually as safe as buying stock outright, and at a reduced cost. In this case, selling puts is a more conservative play than buying shares.

 
pecorino said:
For Bossman, or anyone selling puts, the potential for loss is perfectly identifiable. That article mentions selling uncovered calls (and unsecured puts) which, OK, break out the tombstones. But in the case of cash-secured puts, they are actually as safe as buying stock outright, and at a reduced cost. In this case, selling puts is a more conservative play than buying shares.
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I like buying options as much as anyone but not sure conservative play is a good word for it.  Its closer to a casino bet.

 
pecorino said:
For Bossman, or anyone selling puts, the potential for loss is perfectly identifiable. That article mentions selling uncovered calls (and unsecured puts) which, OK, break out the tombstones. But in the case of cash-secured puts, they are actually as safe as buying stock outright, and at a reduced cost. In this case, selling puts is a more conservative play than buying shares.
Click to expand...
It was more a chance for me to throw that in there as it was a heck of a story.  The hubris of the guy running that place was unreal.  Hopefully Boss is cash securing his play there.  Congrats to him for the nice profit, too.

 
Jefferson the Caregiver said:
I like buying options as much as anyone but not sure conservative play is a good word for it.  Its closer to a casino bet.
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This is patently wrong language for what we are talking about. Buying options, sure, make the case that it’s a leveraged bet. But we are talking about selling cash-secured puts which is closer to entering a limit order to buy stock, but at a discount. It is safer than buying stock outright.

 
pecorino said:
This is patently wrong language for what we are talking about. Buying options, sure, make the case that it’s a leveraged bet. But we are talking about selling cash-secured puts which is closer to entering a limit order to buy stock, but at a discount. It is safer than buying stock outright.
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Thanks, its still early for me.  Skimming through this, you are right, I'm not in this part of the game.  

 
Washington Post article on how the Coronavirus kills people.  The interesting thing is that it matches the mechanism of action almost exactly that our CEO used to design design a potential treatment. Final paperwork being signed and 50-person trial slated to start soon.

@Whyatt you said you think there's no chance that Lironlimab will be part of the treatment for victims.  I, and the rest of the world, sincerely hope you're wrong--and I mean that respectfully.

 
Here are two massive put-selling plays for the FFA and Bossman in particular. Big premiums mean big risks but if you are willing to purchase the underlying stock, you can get paid for that willingness.

SPCE reports earnings early next week. It traded at $33.50 ish on Friday after a big run up from $11 in just a couple months. Selling the $33 puts for this Friday (a five day window) nets a premium of about $4. So in short, if you are willing to buy 100 shares of SPCE at $33 come Friday ($3300 in “collateral”), you’ll be paid $400. That’s a 12% ROI in one week.

Also consider the March puts on BHVN, trading around $45.50 yesterday. The $45 puts generate a premium of about $7, so this time $4500 in capital gets you $700 for about 15% ROI but it’ll take about a month.

Note that these stocks are volatile and might tank but that if you are put shares, you can sell covered calls afterwards to ease that loss. They’d need to drop probably about 20% before you’d lose any money on those combined option trades. 

 
Jefferson the Caregiver said:
For real? 
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AGRX was trading close to $4 when I sold put options @ $2.50 strike

Paid me .45 a share

Meant I would break even if the stock was put to me for $2.05

NVAX actually went below the  $7 strike but put was not exercised. 

If it were, would have been a win/win as the stock quickly bounced back over $7.

Just seems like very little risk for a decent premium.

Yes, cash secured ... so, yes, ties up $50k a month to turn that $9k profit ... so not for everyone I suppose.

 
pecorino said:
Nice work. I love selling puts, do it all the time. I typically choose stocks that I wouldn’t mind owning and I tread lightly with the speculative biotechs. It just takes one to go from, say ten to two, which would dampen your enthusiasm for the practice.

To expound, I like to do “the wheel”: sell puts on stocks you wouldn’t mind owning. Collect premium. If they expire, rinse and repeat. If the stock drops and you are put shares, immediately sell covered calls, ideally at the same strike price as the puts, but on a big dip, this strike price is likely to be lower. You can still lose money, but it would only happen if the share price drops more than the premiums of the sold puts and the sold calls, combined. 

In your example, you laid around $50,000 in capital to sell those puts. Great ROI. In my case, I don’t usually play with more than $10000 plus I use lower beta stocks, so I’d be happy with half that rate of return, on the order of 10%, not like the 18% or so you’re grabbing.
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I need to learn more about covered calls.

My homework for the weekend.

 
Bossman said:
Yes, cash secured ... so, yes, ties up $50k a month to turn that $9k profit ... so not for everyone I suppose.
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I sell covered calls. A lot work out (premium + call less than current stock price). Some don't (just had KR @30.31 called away w/ a 28 strike price, basis of 21 and a 1.50 contract).

Your downside is very similar to mine. The stock we've built around craps the bed. I had BTI for a while because of this. It's why I like to tie my calls to a stock with a decent dividend.

ETA: Bulk of my money is generally in Index funds (currently 50% bonds and 25% gold b/c of virus fears). I wouldn't screw around with cash you need on puts or calls.

 
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Bossman said:
I need to learn more about covered calls.

My homework for the weekend.
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I’ve never heard of someone learning about selling puts and trading them before learning about selling covered calls. You’re an interesting dude with bigger cajones than you may realize.

 
pecorino said:
I’ve never heard of someone learning about selling puts and trading them before learning about selling covered calls. You’re an interesting dude with bigger cajones than you may realize.
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ok, seems simple enough. Sell the covered calls to someone that thinks the stock price will go UP.

People buying these have the opportunity to profit BIG with a very small investment should the stock take off.

I'm guessing it doesn't pay very well on a stock that's tanking?

and the way my puny brain sees it, .... the only risk in selling covered calls is that you limit profit potential with those shares should the stock take off. 

Makes sense to go this route should someone get stocks put to them that they dont necessarily want.

 
Walking Boot said:
Don't want to get political. 

But I don't feel like the market has priced in a Sanders presidency. That adjustment might be starting now after his showing in Nevada has made him a clear frontrunner. Unless there's a surprise on Super Tuesday, I'd expect a clear move in anticipation of major regulatory changes in the next year, as the bare minimum starting point for a correction. 
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Trump is still the Vegas favorite. I’d be surprised if a correction is starting but maybe? I figured later this summer as we get a better idea of who wins. 

 
Hmm, maybe a good thing that I still have a nice wad o' cash to invest. Let's see where this all settles. Could create some good values.

 
Walking Boot said:
I just think that, before, there wasn't as much clarity about the Dem nominee. If it was going to be Biden or Bloomberg or maybe Buttigieg, Wall Street would know what they were in for. Sanders is now the clear frontrunner, and I think the new math of that is going to start becoming a factor. 
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Sanders winning so handily in Nevada could do much to get moderate voters to coalesce behind Bloomberg on Super Tuesday.

 
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