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Stock Thread (19 Viewers)

Walking Boot said:
Don't want to get political. 

But I don't feel like the market has priced in a Sanders presidency. That adjustment might be starting now after his showing in Nevada has made him a clear frontrunner. Unless there's a surprise on Super Tuesday, I'd expect a clear move in anticipation of major regulatory changes in the next year, as the bare minimum starting point for a correction. 
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If anything the odds favor the incumbent now more than ever, which should serve (theoretically) to calm the markets.   Right now I worry more about valuation and trade velocity than the election.

cubd8 said:
Is this mainly in reaction to the CoronaVirus and the fallout economically?
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I certainly think so.  We'll be for a lot of ups and downs as things look better, worse, better, worse, etc.

 
Capella said:
Hard to say no here to be honest. 
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Not sure if I’m buying today. I had been watching multiple stocks have 10% up days. Had two go down that on Friday. Expecting some more today.

If Amazon goes under 2k, I’d buy, but I’m long term. Just loosening up my cash to start watching. I think we could be in for a sizable dip, but if I like a stock for a few years then I might dabble.

 
My trades today:  Sold some IJS and swapped it for IJR (tax loss swap - great day for that).  Took some funds and dipped a shade into CCL.  Small position, but following Buffett on being a net buyer today.

 
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One thing that did cross my mind:

The market has priced in about $0 of risk for Bernie winning the election (which I feel is unlikely), but if the markets got choppy and there were declines that held for 6 months, I feel that increases Bernie's chances, and further puts pressure on the market in an ugly cycle.

Something to be cognizant of, but not yet. 

 
I know there’s a thread for it but I thought I’d ask the brains here.  I’m 44 so not retiring any time soon, should I shift my investments in my 401k?  I’m heaviest in TRPDX (a targeted retirement date fund) and VFIAX.   

I’m assuming stay the course is the answer but as I’m relatively amateur-ish with this game I thought I’d seek the sage advice here.  Thanks.  

 
dkp993 said:
I know there’s a thread for it but I thought I’d ask the brains here.  I’m 44 so not retiring any time soon, should I shift my investments in my 401k?  I’m heaviest in TRPDX (a targeted retirement date fund) and VFIAX.   

I’m assuming stay the course is the answer but as I’m relatively amateur-ish with this game I thought I’d seek the sage advice here.  Thanks.  
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Trying to time the market on an account you won't think of using for 16 years (assuming a 60 year old retirement age) is a fool's game. I stay the course in my 401k... I've got a little cash in there, but nothing worth writing home about. 

Market is obviously stretched from a technical and valuation level, few dispute that... It's just a matter of a real catalyst to get it to come back to Earth. Maybe the coronavirus, maybe not. 

The scariest thing to look at imo is the Shiller P/E ratio, which historically has a good track record of predicting LT returns. Right now, it is as elevated as any point in time excluding the tech bubble... From 2000 to 2010, that was basically a lost decade, and we've def mortgaged some future gains, so at some point investing will get much trickier. 
 

ETA Shiller explanation and chart:

https://www.gurufocus.com/shiller-PE.php

 
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fantasycurse42 said:
One thing that did cross my mind:

The market has priced in about $0 of risk for Bernie winning the election (which I feel is unlikely), but if the markets got choppy and there were declines that held for 6 months, I feel that increases Bernie's chances, and further puts pressure on the market in an ugly cycle.

Something to be cognizant of, but not yet. 
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I mean the market has had a poor track record of pricing that stuff in (Brexit, Trump, etc) but I don't think it'd be that a massive decline. I suppose if he wins the nomination, you might see some of that start to see an orderly sell-off. But I don't think Trump/Bernie would be anything more than a coin-flip so I'd guess you'd get some sort of decline as election day neared. I'd be more worried about the market overpricing a Trump win in the days leading up to the election especially in certain sectors and then things falling 20-30% if Bernie wins. Like insurers rallying after Bernie won NH was idiotic and I wouldn't want to own health care on election night if Bernie is the nominee. I'd buy the Bernie sell-off though. 

 
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sporthenry said:
I'd buy the Bernie sell-off though. 
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I would not. Looking for a catalyst to get stocks back to fair value... I think that would absolutely be it. Think dip buyers would finally learn BTFD isn't always a foolproof strategy. You take one guy that is basically a DJIA cheerleader and replace with someone who could not care less, those are the ingredients for a bear market, especially when valuations are super high and the FED has no wiggle room on rates. Just my .02.  

 
Capella said:
Trump is still the Vegas favorite. I’d be surprised if a correction is starting but maybe? I figured later this summer as we get a better idea of who wins. 
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Still paying about 50 cents on a dollar bet, and that's including the entire dem field.

 
If you haven't read the Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham (nicknamed the father of value investing), give it a read, still relevant to this day... Here is a great quote:

The longer the bull market lasts the more severely investors will be affected with amnesia; after five years or so, many people no longer believe that bear markets are possible.
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fantasycurse42 said:
I would not. Looking for a catalyst to get stocks back to fair value... I think that would absolutely be it. Think dip buyers would finally learn BTFD isn't always a foolproof strategy. You take one guy that is basically a DJIA cheerleader and replace with someone who could not care less, those are the ingredients for a bear market, especially when valuations are super high and the FED has no wiggle room on rates. Just my .02.  
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Fair, well you have a DJIA cheerleader sure, which provides some business confidence and becomes a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy. But in terms of fiscal policy, I don't think he has done a ton. Tax cuts were a sugar high and deregulation has helped but I wouldn't put record highs on that. I just think people overrate the power of the Presidency. I mean AOC already came out and said they wouldn't get Medicare For All through. So if you saw private insurers drop 50%, I'd buy that all day. I mean sure, I probably wouldn't want to be on Wall Street all that much but banks have been moving away from trading already. 

I guess it would just depend on how the business community reacts to Bernie but I don't think the economy would change as much as people think just because you'd likely still have Republican controlled Senate. I mean, what actual legislation has Bernie achieved? As much as I don't like the thought of him, I don't think he'd get as much as he wanted. 

 
Whyatt said:
I had corrected my post to indicate that PRO140 would not be commercialized for cancer in 2020, in opposition to the 30 days mentioned in that PR article. 
The bar for getting cancer drugs approved used to be quite low, but still much higher than the few data points provided by CYDY. As there are currently more options available for cancer, the bar is for approval is rising. I’m not an expert in this area, but I don’t believe the CYCY basket trial will lead to approval of the drug for any indication either, only potential identify future targets.
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So you think Leronlimab will be commercialized for cancer but still feel that the company is overvalued @~$650MM market cap?

CYDY acting well so far today in a weak market.  Lots of catalysts on the horizon!  Buying 10k more shares.

 
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sporthenry said:
Fair, well you have a DJIA cheerleader sure, which provides some business confidence and becomes a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy. But in terms of fiscal policy, I don't think he has done a ton. Tax cuts were a sugar high and deregulation has helped but I wouldn't put record highs on that. I just think people overrate the power of the Presidency. I mean AOC already came out and said they wouldn't get Medicare For All through. So if you saw private insurers drop 50%, I'd buy that all day. I mean sure, I probably wouldn't want to be on Wall Street all that much but banks have been moving away from trading already. 

I guess it would just depend on how the business community reacts to Bernie but I don't think the economy would change as much as people think just because you'd likely still have Republican controlled Senate. I mean, what actual legislation has Bernie achieved? As much as I don't like the thought of him, I don't think he'd get as much as he wanted. 
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I feel like we're late in a cycle, everything is overvalued, there is basically no yield (10 year is under 1.4%), & a FED with rates near nothing and a bloated (and will be bloated much further) balance sheet. 

We just need one Lehman moment to knock it all over and start a new bear market... If Bernie were to win, to me, that could be the first domino to fall, that would be like the Bear Stearns moment in front of the Lehman moment. 

 
General Malaise said:
I sold over half my gold position last week.  Whoops.  :bag:
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Keeping me afloat today, but I'm still getting hit hard on everything else. To me, there will be ups and downs getting there, but the moment of truth for gold will be around $1,900, that's where I'm scared. If it can barrel through there and get above $2k an ounce, it will be off and running to much higher and uncharted territory. My gut says the Fed will give it the push it needs, but that is still fluid. 

 
fantasycurse42 said:
If you haven't read the Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham (nicknamed the father of value investing), give it a read, still relevant to this day... Here is a great quote:
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This is the exact opposite of my experience. I've been reading doom and gloom constantly for the past 3-4 years. Meanwhile, the intelligent investors just keep riding the long-term gains and ignoring the clickbait.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
I feel like we're late in a cycle, everything is overvalued, there is basically no yield (10 year is under 1.4%), & a FED with rates near nothing and a bloated (and will be bloated much further) balance sheet. 

We just need one Lehman moment to knock it all over and start a new bear market... If Bernie were to win, to me, that could be the first domino to fall, that would be like the Bear Stearns moment in front of the Lehman moment. 
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...you've predicted 73 of the last 2 recessions.

 
Capella said:
Ok I’m buying more amazon. FFS
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I’m not only because I’ve got way more of that than anything else. Got about $110k in cash looking for a home, but probably waiting for a little more off the top. Had a couple companies beat earnings and revenue easily last week down 20% in two days (still up from October when I added them). Still believe in them long term so I’m OK looking for opportunities in high growth companies.

 
Taking a shot on silver here, which I've been watching for (checks notes) 7 years in anticipation of a move.  Maybe NOW is the time?  Jesus.....what a slug.  Here's a 10 year chart.  20 seems like the ultimate point of resistance, but this environment feels a little different.  

Played AGQ because I'm not right in the head.  Also jumped back into NUGT, which is what I've been using on and off with JNUG for gold exposure. But I like to gamble and retirement for me just isn't going to ever happen, so #### it, I say.

 

 
stbugs said:
I’m not only because I’ve got way more of that than anything else. Got about $110k in cash looking for a home, but probably waiting for a little more off the top. Had a couple companies beat earnings and revenue easily last week down 20% in two days (still up from October when I added them). Still believe in them long term so I’m OK looking for opportunities in high growth companies.
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I’m way overweight on it but I’m also addicted. 

 
dkp993 said:
I know there’s a thread for it but I thought I’d ask the brains here.  I’m 44 so not retiring any time soon, should I shift my investments in my 401k?  I’m heaviest in TRPDX (a targeted retirement date fund) and VFIAX.   

I’m assuming stay the course is the answer but as I’m relatively amateur-ish with this game I thought I’d seek the sage advice here.  Thanks.  
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Time in the market is the overwhelming factor.  Have a look at this article on buying the dips, timing, etc.  Particularly look at the last figure where it compares dollar cost averaging vs. perfectly buying dips.  Easy winner.  Just keep shoveling money into the markets.

 
Positions we have been buying today on this weakness:

PFE

RCL

APPL

DIS

FUN

COP

XOM

 
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Walking Boot said:
It's easy to say "I can quit working at 30 and live out the rest of my years on my investment returns" when you've had an unprecedented 10-year bull run. Basically, that's it.

And to me, most of them seem to talk about "averages" and assumed returns and getting 8% a year every year without seeming to have an inkling of what it would mean if they dropped out of the career market for a few years and, then after a while of "retirement", have a 30% drop in their portfolio that doesn't recover for 5/6 years and all their networking contacts are laid off and the industry they're in uses new technology they don't have any experience with and they can't just start back up at their old job anytime they want anymore. But that's beyond the scope of the original comment. 

Mostly just that a 10 year bull makes FIRE seem a lot, lot easier than it is.
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I've made $47k a year for a decade, now I'm letting $47k work for me, FOREVER!!

 
Bob Sacamano said:
I'm interested in DIS, too. Just can't help but wonder how hard this could really hit them in the near-term.
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Yeah that is the question. I am not taking full positions. But taking half of the total allocation I would normally hold for these stocks today. Then I want to sit back and see how this goes the next few weeks. I think the virus will get under control in the next couple of months, but we are going to have this volatility here for the next several weeks. 

But long term. I have zero concerns as usual. So it is hard to time. If you see great stocks trading at decent valuations for the long term you just buy them and not worry about next month or even this year. It's about the long term. Days like today are good buying days regardless. 

And the energy sector is simply on a fire sale right now and a great long term opportunity to get excellent dividend stocks of cash rich companies. Huge disconnect and quite frankly.....oversold.

 
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Todem said:
Yeah that is the question. I am not taking full positions. But taking half of the total allocation I would normally hold for these stocks today. Then I want to sit back and see how this goes the next few weeks. I think the virus will get under control in the next couple of months, but we are going to have this volatility here for the next several weeks. 

But long term. I have zero concerns as usual. So it is hard to time. If you see great stocks trading at decent valuations for the long term you just buy them and not worry about next month or even this year. It's about the long term. Days like today are good buying days regardless. 

And the energy sector is simply on a fire sale right now and a great long term opportunity to get excellent dividend stocks of cash rich companies. Huge disconnect and quite frankly.....oversold.
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Yeah, I haven't pushed anything in yet. Seems like some things are actually up after being way down. That screams that instant buy on a drop where the prices end up going down past the bottom today. Just looking to see if there are any earnings coming out today. 

 
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