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Posted (edited)

Like reality is, no matter what Trump says people aren't going to go rushing back to bars, hotels, and cruises while they're getting hit with coronavirus news 24/7.   At least not like they were before.

Edited by DrJ

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There well could be a bounce back tomorrow especially if there is a deal reached. Its happened every time money has been thrown to support the economy deal with the virus.

But the virus isn't going away and reality will set in and the market will go down again.One infected person started the pandemic and its going to continue to flare up, we haven't even spiked yet in the US. 

People will  continue to be very reluctant to travel, eat out, visit amusement parks, go to plays, social events, stores or have weddings until there is a vaccine and better treatment methods. Isolation is the best "treatment" for now and that will effect the economy significantly in a downward direction.

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Posted (edited)

My experiences recently I expect to change - builders have been tossing up houses left and right.    There's been ALL KINDS of commercial development in the area, all the modern fancy strip malls and restaurants.     You go to the mall, it's packed to the gills.   Even in late February this was true.    I can't even get EV parking, it's terrible.   

I expect the picture to look different - for a decent while...   especially here in Illinois.

Edited by DrJ

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Lots of political soap boxing in here only loosely tied to the market.  Yes, there are many elements that intersect, but this would be a better read if people kept the rants over there.

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Contrast this with the 2008 - 2009 era, no one was building anything.    Not residential, not commercial.    The malls were super empty.    And it's just been this slow steady uptick until we reached this record level of consumer confidence where everyone is making and blowing money left and right.     No matter how much stimulus they pump in, it's going to be hard to just snap right back to that.

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2 hours ago, fred_1_15301 said:

I'm having a difficult time comprehending this.  With all that we're currently going through in this world, people are actually worried about when Disney ####### World is going to reopen?  This is what's on their mind?  Who are these people?  What world do they live in?

A magical world. A Kingdom if you will. And one only reached by Cruise ship.

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8 minutes ago, Moonlight said:

There well could be a bounce back tomorrow especially if there is a deal reached. Its happened every time money has been thrown to support the economy deal with the virus.

But the virus isn't going away and reality will set in and the market will go down again.One infected person started the pandemic and its going to continue to flare up, we haven't even spiked yet in the US. 

People will  continue to be very reluctant to travel, eat out, visit amusement parks, go to plays, social events, stores or have weddings until there is a vaccine and better treatment methods. Isolation is the best "treatment" for now and that will effect the economy significantly in a downward direction.

Unemployment numbers come out Thursday as well, if it’s really 20-25% that’s going to hurt. They may not even announce numbers, rather categories, which could be worse. Not knowing information usually spooks markets.

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Just now, Grace Under Pressure said:

Unemployment numbers come out Thursday as well, if it’s really 20-25% that’s going to hurt. They may not even announce numbers, rather categories, which could be worse. Not knowing information usually spooks markets.

It's not gonna be 20-25% immediately.    That's what happens when everything slowly and systematically fails.

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Right now it's 3.5% and that's them counting 5.8 million unemployed.     It seems people are projecting 2-3 million Thursday.    So that'll bump that to about 5-5.5%.

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12 minutes ago, Moonlight said:

There well could be a bounce back tomorrow especially if there is a deal reached. Its happened every time money has been thrown to support the economy deal with the virus.

But the virus isn't going away and reality will set in and the market will go down again.One infected person started the pandemic and its going to continue to flare up, we haven't even spiked yet in the US. 

People will  continue to be very reluctant to travel, eat out, visit amusement parks, go to plays, social events, stores or have weddings until there is a vaccine and better treatment methods. Isolation is the best "treatment" for now and that will effect the economy significantly in a downward direction.

I have been underwhelmed by everything economic/financial thrown at his crisis so far. $2T ain't going to fix the market swoon, either. It may abate it for a bit, but the butcher's bill will come due sooner rather than later.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Capella said:

I grab her phone every night to read it. People on there talking about how they hope they make their April 10th cruise. It’s INSANE. 
 

People who have upcoming Disney cruises legitimately think they’re getting on them. Amazing. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/23/cdc-coronavirus-survived-in-princess-cruise-cabins-up-to-17-days-after-passengers-left.html

This article from CNBC is pretty insane. Says that the CDC determined that the coronavirus was present on some surfaces 17 days after passengers left the Diamond Princess. This could very easily change the safety and disinfecting protocols for cruises until a vaccine is established.  They might be forced to do a full and complete disinfecting and sterilization after each and every cruise.  

Edited by jvdesigns2002

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1 minute ago, jvdesigns2002 said:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/23/cdc-coronavirus-survived-in-princess-cruise-cabins-up-to-17-days-after-passengers-left.html

This article from CNBC is pretty insane. Says that the CDC determined that the coronavirus was present on some surfaces 17 days after the Diamond Princess after passengers left.  This could very easily change the safety and disinfecting protocols for cruises until a vaccine is established.  They might be forced to do a full and complete disinfecting and sterilization after each and every cruise.  

Yeah, this isn't gonna go anywhere anytime soon.    And some people are terrified of it.    Some could care less and will fork out their loot.    Unless people are right and there's bodies in the streets and then they'll probably stop doing that too.  

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4 minutes ago, DrJ said:

Right now it's 3.5% and that's them counting 5.8 million unemployed.     It seems people are projecting 2-3 million Thursday.    So that'll bump that to about 5-5.5%.

Thanks for bringing math to the party. That actually makes a lot more sense.

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6 minutes ago, Grace Under Pressure said:

Unemployment numbers come out Thursday as well, if it’s really 20-25% that’s going to hurt. They may not even announce numbers, rather categories, which could be worse. Not knowing information usually spooks markets.

It won't be anywhere close to that this early. Many employers are still keeping employees on staff--but just reducing hours--or are paying them until the end of the month until there is a bit more clarity.   My guess is that you will see unemployment rising moderately to significantly over the next several weeks--but we won't go from where we are to 20% instantly.  

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Just now, jvdesigns2002 said:

It won't be anywhere close to that this early. Many employers are still keeping employees on staff--but just reducing hours--or are paying them until the end of the month until there is a bit more clarity.   My guess is that you will see unemployment rising moderately to significantly over the next several weeks--but we won't go from where we are to 20% instantly.  

Yeah this is worst case where those people lose jobs, and stop spending money and more people lose jobs, and you get into the deflation spiral.   

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Just now, jvdesigns2002 said:

It won't be anywhere close to that this early. Many employers are still keeping employees on staff--but just reducing hours--or are paying them until the end of the month until there is a bit more clarity.   My guess is that you will see unemployment rising moderately to significantly over the next several weeks--but we won't go from where we are to 20% instantly.  

Yeah DrJ set it straight with numbers which makes sense, instead of going off some sensational headline quoting a Goldman Sachs estimate IIRC.

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Like maybe that'll be the patriotic thing coming up though too instead of #ihidundermybed it'll be #iateoutandtippedreallybig.     Who knows...  

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3 minutes ago, Grace Under Pressure said:

Thanks for bringing math to the party. That actually makes a lot more sense.

Dammit. Now I want some pi

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48 minutes ago, cosjobs said:

Dammit. Now I want some pi

3.1

 

Just the tip

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I think I might dip my toes in SPXU mid day tomorrow

 

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2 hours ago, jvdesigns2002 said:

It won't be anywhere close to that this early. Many employers are still keeping employees on staff--but just reducing hours--or are paying them until the end of the month until there is a bit more clarity.   My guess is that you will see unemployment rising moderately to significantly over the next several weeks--but we won't go from where we are to 20% instantly.  

Anecdotally, the unemployment website here in Hawaii crashed last week from all of the traffic. Hawaii is getting hit especially hard since the governor announced a 14 day mandatory quarantine for anyone traveling/returning to the islands on Sunday. For all intents and purposes, it kills tourism which is the lifeblood of the economy here. 

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Everything up huge overnight on the back of the stimulus bill. Did I miss the boat yesterday? :unsure:

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, jvdesigns2002 said:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/23/cdc-coronavirus-survived-in-princess-cruise-cabins-up-to-17-days-after-passengers-left.html

This article from CNBC is pretty insane. Says that the CDC determined that the coronavirus was present on some surfaces 17 days after passengers left the Diamond Princess. This could very easily change the safety and disinfecting protocols for cruises until a vaccine is established.  They might be forced to do a full and complete disinfecting and sterilization after each and every cruise.  

LOL.  

They still don't have testing on humans fully in order.  You hear stories of the testing taking 24 hours, or 48 hours, or a week to get results.  This study shows testing at a whopping 80% false positive rate.  And you guys want to believe the CDC went in there, and was able to figure out the virus arbitrarily lives on a surface for "17 days"?  Meanwhile they readily admit in that same article that they have no idea if that is what even caused the subsequent infections.  It's just more fear porn for those looking for it.  "The coronavirus could kill millions of Americans: ‘Do the math,’ immunization specialist says" is literally a headline to a related article below.  Talk about trying to scare the crap out of people.

I'm not here to debate my take on the overall seriousness of this, but there are times when these clearly sensationalized mainstream reports need to be called into question as nothing more than an attempt to continue to stoke the fear narrative that's driven this thing into a pandemic, and crashed the markets and society accordingly.  

Edited by sheerterror
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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, Grace Under Pressure said:

Yeah DrJ set it straight with numbers which makes sense, instead of going off some sensational headline quoting a Goldman Sachs estimate IIRC.

Goldman Sachs are awful. Yes that is right, freaking awful. They short the market regularly and are some of the biggest market manipulators in the history of our country. They are pornographers in the investment banking world. Absolute scum.

Edited by Todem
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I wonder, is it time to start buying.  Start pulling out of hedge funds and dump that into equities and index funds.  hmm...

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Harris said:

Everything up huge overnight on the back of the stimulus bill. Did I miss the boat yesterday? :unsure:

No you did not. We will get another whoosh......and if your not trying to time a bottom and going long....the Dow was down 37% from the all time high. You can still buy and profit for the long term.

The downside risk is still far stronger for 5-10% more to the downside than the market springing up 15%-20% in the short term. This is why I have just nibbled on high panic days like the 16th and yesterday just a nibble on AT&T. 

Today people will sell into the rally to raise more cash. No doubt. We are going to be in this kind of volatility for a little while longer. So don’t worry about timing a bottom. Just keep buying the highest quality dividend paying stocks that can get through this. 

Yes, at some point I am taking a few shots with CCL and DAL but I am not there just yet. Those stocks are being day traded, shorted and short covered every day. 

And I will stand by BA being one of the biggest winners in the next 12-24 months. Maybe it takes a little longer......but at these levels....this is a long term chance to get a great company that will be supported as we get through this virus. And again I am far more optimistic in terms of us getting past this and by year end we could easily see the markets 15-20% higher from here. 

I really think the depths are being....for lack of a better term hyped insanely hard by the financial media. Shock and awe, headlines, fear and all the eternal bears have crawled out from under their rocks they have been hiding under since April 2009. Getting their moment in the sun. 

18-24 months from now......we will look back and say “remember that Covid correction?” Wow that was such a great chance to buy cheap stocks. 

Rinse and repeat. 

Unless you think we are done......we are screwed.....people are never spending money again, traveling, living. Yes....behaviors will change. But they won’t last. We don’t live in fear. That is not how it goes the USA. 

Just my sentiments. We will get through this and be stronger on the other side eventually. If your investing for the long term.....you simply should not be worried. 

And make no mistake. I have plenty of clients who are retired, and some retired last year. They are doing fine. They understand this is not permanent. They understand 99% of their dividends and interest are being paid. The annuities they have fully being paid. 

It will be OK folks. 

Edited by Todem
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10 stocks I'm following for various reasons. Lots of healthcare. 

ABT, BRK.B, CRM, GILD, HON, INFO, MA, MDT, NVO, RHHBY

All solid stocks I liked before but were too expensive. No real bounce back stocks. 

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Today is the first day it feels like gold and silver are doing what they should be doing.  Gold up around $100 right now..Wow.

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Boy I wish I knew the way these brokerage accounts work.  Lot of waiting after transactions.  Literally everything I wanted to buy yesterday is skyrocketing while I sit here all sad.

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14 minutes ago, jvdesigns2002 said:

Today is the first day it feels like gold and silver are doing what they should be doing.  Gold up around $100 right now..Wow.

Glad I upped my JNUG stake yesterday.  Not a big one.  Just cash I could afford to lose.

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Posted (edited)
25 minutes ago, jvdesigns2002 said:

Today is the first day it feels like gold and silver are doing what they should be doing.  Gold up around $100 right now..Wow.

Everything is up.

 

Gold is 100% correlated which is insane. That is how you know we are in full on panic and fear. 

 

In the meantime Jim Kramer laying it on thick with the "Financial News Drama" talking to Pelosi. He makes me freaking ill. Guy is a fraud. 

Edited by Todem
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Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

This must be a day traders dream.  I imagine huge selloffs later from people locking in profits

This is a shorters/day traders market. This is what goes on when most are paralyzed in fear.

They get chances like this.....very rarely. So we are here. Eventually they get squeezed out badly and that is why when this get’s behind us......the mother of all short squeezes will take place and that is why the market will be as violent on the way back up. We are in a new world in terms of trading speed. 

Edited by Todem

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Posted (edited)
26 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

Boy I wish I knew the way these brokerage accounts work.  Lot of waiting after transactions.  Literally everything I wanted to buy yesterday is skyrocketing while I sit here all sad.

Don’t worry ....it will drop again. We are not out of this yet. But this is why you nibble on really bad days. Impossible to time bottoms. 

Edited by Todem
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3 minutes ago, Todem said:

Everything is up.

 

Gold is 100% correlated which is insane. That is how you know we are in full on panic and fear. 

 

In the meantime Jim Kramer laying it on thick with the "Financial News Drama" talking to Pelosi. He makes me freaking ill. Guy is a fraud. 

Cramers one of those dudes who tells you to buy at the top and sell at the bottom.

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Just now, Todem said:

Don’t worry ....it will drop again. We are not out of this yet. But this is why you nibble on really bad days. Impossible to time bottoms. 

Yep. I think a lot of people think it’s going to be obvious when the bottom hits. It never is and more often than not you’re left on the sidelines as you look back. 

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3 minutes ago, Todem said:

Don’t worry ....it will drop again. We are not out of this yet. But this is why you nibble on really bad days. Impossible to time bottoms. 

PLAY tripled since I wanted to buy.  Not happy

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Bought into Boeing a few days ago at 95    :excited:

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1 hour ago, Todem said:

Goldman Sachs are awful. Yes that is right, freaking awful. They short the market regularly and are some of the biggest market manipulators in the history of our country. They are pornographers in the investment banking world. Absolute scum.

They've been caught a few times. Dot com bubble I remember how much they pumped stocks that they were underwriting IPOs all the while selling at the same time. I can't recall the articles, but GS is awful. I mean, throwing around 30% unemployment when 1933 is the all time high unemployment rate at just under 25% according to a historical chart I googled and outside of the 1931-1940 range of the Great Depression, only in 1982 did the unemployment rate get over 10% and it was just over 10% in 1982. Just throwing out a scare number of 30% is basically saying we are the midst of a period worse than the Great Depression. They also put in the "if nothing is done" caveat, but again, they are likely trying to move the market based on their bets.

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21 minutes ago, Todem said:

Everything is up.

 

Gold is 100% correlated which is insane. That is how you know we are in full on panic and fear. 

 

In the meantime Jim Kramer laying it on thick with the "Financial News Drama" talking to Pelosi. He makes me freaking ill. Guy is a fraud. 

Agreed—but my point (which I didn’t elaborate) is that gold and silver should have been going up when it became clear that many governments were going to start printing currency like no tomorrow to offset the economic damage caused by the virus.  The only reason they didn’t go up was because of a temporary global rush to liquidity.   I’m not saying that they are out of the woods by any means—but it just feels like today is the first day that they are responding to the macro currency picture a bit. 

I agree on Jim Cramer—he absolutely sickens me. He was chatting with the CEO of Starbucks and praised him for not laying off his workers and for paying his workers for 30 days. He then challenged the Starbucks CEO to try to tell other CEO’s to follow the same no-layoff path for 30 days.  All of this while Jim Cramer himself said that he laid off a big portion of the staffs of his restaurants literally days after the lockdown.  Cramer has a net worth of approximately 100 million dollars—and he was one of the first to insta-layoff people.   Just a disgusting human being. 

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11 minutes ago, fred_1_15301 said:

Bought into Boeing a few days ago at 95    :excited:

SAVE +60%

UAL +65%

MAR +50%

Wish I have the nuts to go all in on some of these.  Going to take some profits today.

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10 hours ago, TripItUp said:

To be clear Trump was very clear that he would address hotspots differently...he didn't say "the entire country goes back to work after the 15 days"

Also, governors will do what they see as prudent.  It makes much more sense to have a local strategy.  New York isn't Iowa.

Obviously places like NY and CA are far more important economically than Iowa.

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14 hours ago, ghostguy123 said:

Good grief I think it went up another 10% after I posted that

And now up 50% today.  PLAY

I am sick.  I missed my 4 bagger due to lack of knowledge of how the trading rules work.  F me

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My UPRO, FAS and JPM skyrocketing....it was free money fellas...let's see how far this goes.

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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, GROOT said:

IMO, this is a temporary reaction. Don't be surprised.

None of us think we are out of this....not by far. But the fact we can give each other encouragement and ideas here is great vibes. 

Let’s keep it positive in here. We all know we are going to get out of this. Let’s profit together. 

I think the more we keep things in perspective for one another the better. 

Good stuff in here!!

Edited by Todem
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5 minutes ago, Todem said:

None of us think we are out of this....not by far. But the fact we can give each other encouragement and ideas here is great vibes. 

Let’s keep it positive in here. We all know we are going to get out of this. Let’s profit together. 

I think the more we keep things in perspective for one another the better. 

Good stuff in here!!

Glad you made it back to the more productive stock thread.:thumbup:

 

BA with a nice move today!

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19 minutes ago, GROOT said:

IMO, this is a temporary reaction. Don't be surprised.

I don’t care - it’s moatloads time for CCL

 

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That said I sold off 2/3 at 16.10.

SPXU time

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