Big League Chew
Footballguy
ive been hoping for it to drop again so i can board the shipKinda want some RCL puts after 5 days of green. Like 4/17 $35, anyone intrigued?
ive been hoping for it to drop again so i can board the shipKinda want some RCL puts after 5 days of green. Like 4/17 $35, anyone intrigued?
Macau casinos have reopened by I guess.My brother told me to get in it. All I know is it was 30+ before the virus, once the virus is over it will be back to 30+. They are not going out of business and they were virtually priced to go out of business.
I got it from this article but looking back at historical charts it must have been a pretty short-lived rally (I definitely can't remember back that far accurately.) Stocks topped in the summer of '07, things started imploding in late August to Sept. of '07 and by spring-summer of '08 we were seeing a bear market rally. By the time TARP was passed in Oct of '08 the market was already on its way back down which would last for almost a year.Could you elaborate on the TARP similarities for those of us less familiar, plz?
The market hit the bottom March 9th 2009.I got it from this article but looking back at historical charts it must have been a pretty short-lived rally (I definitely can't remember back that far accurately.) Stocks topped in the summer of '07, things started imploding in late August to Sept. of '07 and by spring-summer of '08 we were seeing a bear market rally. By the time TARP was passed in Oct of '08 the market was already on its way back down which would last for almost a year.
Maybe the author meant to say the 2008 stimulus checks? That legislation was passed in Feb of '08 and the stock market did rally for about 3 months after that before it started to crater again in June. Interestingly, the studies done on those stimulus checks showed that something like 20% of people actually spent the money, a third saved the money and the rest used it to pay off debt. In my case I saved it at the time.
Bear market rally peaked sometime around April or May of '08 as I recall (sounds like you can be more precise than myself), so the next leg down lasted almost a year or so with TARP kind of in the middle. The Feb '08 lows weren't retested and broken until like summer of '08 IIRC with the bottom coming the following March as you stated.The market hit the bottom March 9th 2009.
Well after Tarp passed.
Definitely feeling FOMO right now as this explodes back up. Market is right at about when I dropped out. I figure if I jump back in the market will take it as a sign to drive off a cliff. With the numbers we're seeing and the economic paralysis that is sure to spread through metropolitan areas I just don't see how this is over, by any stretch.The market hit the bottom March 9th 2009.
Well after Tarp passed.
If anyone here thinks we are not retesting the lows of March 23rd 2020 you have nit been in the market long enough.
Just my opinion.
This is a stock pickers market to the extreme. This is where professionals earn their fees (like me).
I have been managing wealth professionally since 1998 (for myself since 1987).
Buy on bad bad days. We will have more.
Totally.Anybody wanting to compare this to 2008 is soooooooo offbase. 2008 was a structural problem with the banking system. This is an exogenous event. Apples and oranges.
Okay... how long do you think this exogenous event will exert negative pressure on the market?Totally.
We are in pretty much the same boat.Definitely feeling FOMO right now as this explodes back up. Market is right at about when I dropped out. I figure if I jump back in the market will take it as a sign to drive off a cliff. With the numbers we're seeing and the economic paralysis that is sure to spread through metropolitan areas I just don't see how this is over, by any stretch.
Or I'll just lose out and have to add a few years to my employment end date due to all this and improper decision making. Most likely possibility through all this.
Hard to say. "The bottom" is usually a process and not an event. I wouldn't be surprised to see us re-rest the recent lows, but I doubt we go back down much further than that.Okay... how long do you think this exogenous event will exert negative pressure on the market?
Sand....sit tight. You will have a great chance to jump back in. But this is the pitfalls of panic. I don’t have to lecture you.Definitely feeling FOMO right now as this explodes back up. Market is right at about when I dropped out. I figure if I jump back in the market will take it as a sign to drive off a cliff. With the numbers we're seeing and the economic paralysis that is sure to spread through metropolitan areas I just don't see how this is over, by any stretch.
Or I'll just lose out and have to add a few years to my employment end date due to all this and improper decision making. Most likely possibility through all this.
Interesting, had never heard of them.I've said this a few times but if you want to make some money on a short term trade, buy puts a month out on TTD. It's rising in the face of a really bad time for media. There are no sports for forseeable future and brands do not want to advertise against COVID 19 so news sites aren't doing all that great either.
I can't believe its been up for multiple days now.
Haven't even come close to hitting a buy button. And really not much left to sell.Sand....sit tight. You will have a great chance to jump back in. But this is the pitfalls of panic. I don’t have to lecture you.
So are you in almost all cash?Haven't even come close to hitting a buy button. And really not much left to sell.
So... Sitting. Not comfortably, but sitting.
And grousing. I'm an expert at that.
You can't compare this to 2009.
I assume that includes the completely clueless who have most of their $ parked in the safest option in their 401k. They ahve no idea what fund they shouldb e in for max gains. Trust me there are millions like that. In fact, probably the majority so this is not a surprise.For all you people trying to time the market...
For the 20 years ended December 31, 2018, the S&P returned 5.62% per year.
Over that same period of time, the average investor (represented by Dalbar’s average asset allocation investor return) returned 1.87%.
Gregory Mannarino has been saying this nonstop for a week or two now. But I'm new to this, so I have no idea what kind of industry clout he has.The market doesn't go in a linear path down nor a linear path up (although it has for 12 years, which is how I explain the buying today). This is an extraordinary event, this has never happened. To think the market crashes and recovers in weeks or even months is pricing in a much rosier outlook than the spread of this virus is currently showing. Maybe the market anticipates the data will improve, IDK, nobody does.
If the incoming virus data continues on the current trajectory, and the market keeps going up, say another 3k points, I'll have to put my conspiracy hat on and say the Fed is covertly outright buying equities either in individual companies or possibly ETFs.
I have no idea but I do know this: If a magical cure or even a proven treatment happens, we are off and running, everyone is getting rehired. Crappy companies will screw their employees who will go work for better companies. The crappy companies who screwed their employees will then get the new craptastic employees they deserve.Okay... how long do you think this exogenous event will exert negative pressure on the market?
Yeah.....I simply replied to those predictions as “ok man"Those waiting for sub 2k on NAZ are going to watch this train leave the station and this is what they will look like.
The guy who said he was waiting for S&P 1400-1600 is this:
Every single person I’ve talked to in the last few weeks has parked it in their safe 2% fund. Every. Single. One.I assume that includes the completely clueless who have most of their $ parked in the safest option in their 401k. They ahve no idea what fund they shouldb e in for max gains. Trust me there are millions like that. In fact, probably the majority so this is not a surprise.
Man, that is sad but not a surprise. They buy like mad at the top and curl up in the fetal position at the bottom.Every single person I’ve talked to in the last few weeks has parked it in their safe 2% fund. Every. Single. One.
The world is literally closed right now. The truth is, while everyone is itching to get going, we have no real idea when it will happen. It took 2 months in China where they have tigers roaming the street to keep quarantines and shelters strict. With our half ### measures in comparison, it'll take a long time to work through the population, not to mention consumer confidence will be #### for a very long time.Those waiting for sub 2k on NAZ are going to watch this train leave the station and this is what they will look like.
The guy who said he was waiting for S&P 1400-1600 is this:
Man, who knows but MGM getting to 15 that quick tells me if I can get it back a little lower than what I sold it at, I'll be happy.Anyone buying into an afternoon sell off or wait for more down days? Debating MGM.
Mostly agree and this currently can be referred to a DCB but we wont know it was for sure until after the fact. I lean towards that myself.The world is literally closed right now. The truth is, while everyone is itching to get going, we have no real idea when it will happen. It took 2 months in China where they have tigers roaming the street to keep quarantines and shelters strict. With our half ### measures in comparison, it'll take a long time to work through the population, not to mention consumer confidence will be #### for a very long time.
That V is going to collapse into a sea of misery.
How does unlimited QE from the Fed play into this? Can the market even tank 5-10% in a day or multiple days in a row with the Fed able to just throw money at it any time it starts looking bad?The market hit the bottom March 9th 2009.
Well after Tarp passed.
If anyone here thinks we are not retesting the lows of March 23rd 2020 you have not been in the market long enough.
Just my opinion.
This is a stock pickers market to the extreme. This is where professionals earn their fees (like me).
I have been managing wealth professionally since 1998 (for myself since 1987).
Buy on bad bad days. We will have more.
At what point would you concede and put the money back in higher? A particular event (vaccine), or amount of time (months without retesting the low), or new high? Or are you willing to sit on it infinitely?The market hit the bottom March 9th 2009.
Well after Tarp passed.
If anyone here thinks we are not retesting the lows of March 23rd 2020 you have not been in the market long enough.
Just my opinion.
This is a stock pickers market to the extreme. This is where professionals earn their fees (like me).
I have been managing wealth professionally since 1998 (for myself since 1987).
Buy on bad bad days. We will have more.
That's sad because most of them will not get it back out in time, or even at all, to have the retirement they wanted. Of course the people close to retirement will fair better.Every single person I’ve talked to in the last few weeks has parked it in their safe 2% fund. Every. Single. One.
I told them the other day that I was buying and this is probably the greatest buying opp of our life and they legit said I was crazy. Some people get rich and some people don’t.Man, that is sad but not a surprise. They buy like mad at the top and curl up in the fetal position at the bottom.
Yea all were at least 10 years out. 2 were younger than me (42)That's sad because most of them will not get it back out in time, or even at all, to have the retirement they wanted. Of course the people close to retirement will fair better.
The Fed will throw money at it spurts. But no it can’t just keep doing this all time. I do not see unlimited QE. They simply can’t do that. The approach is this is not lasting a whole lot longer. They have backstopped credit markets and the treasuries. They are doing a great job right now. They got out in front of this.How does unlimited QE from the Fed play into this? Can the market even tank 5-10% in a day or multiple days in a row with the Fed able to just throw money at it any time it starts looking bad?
I am going to concede the rest of my cash in the next two weeks. My partner and I have been discussing this at length everyday. We expect to see the worst numbers of the virus and all the bearish economic pundits pounding the table next week and the week after. I would be mildly surprised if we do not see at least another 10% sell off. I say at least. It could be more. Once that starts next week we start nibbling in till the rest of the cash is gone and go long as usual.At what point would you concede and put the money back in higher? A particular event (vaccine), or amount of time (months without retesting the low), or new high? Or are you willing to sit on it infinitely?
No it hasn't, but if you bravely got back in when BOA was $3.75 and then $4.50, you did pretty, pretty well. I have a buddy that literally put a large down payment on a large house just from BOA proceeds. Similar to BA these days.The Fed will throw money at it spurts. But no it can’t just keep doing this all time. I do not see unlimited QE. They simply can’t do that. The approach is this is not lasting a whole lot longer. They have backstopped credit markets and the treasuries. They are doing a great job right now. They got out in front of this.
What some people are saying.....is it will (last a whole lot longer). Those are the people who will miss it....again. There are people who got out in 2008 and never got back in.....and those same people are sitting here today....still paralyzed to get in. Stocks are again on a fire sale.
This is why the average retail investor averages less than 2% a year.
TIME IN THE MARKET not timing the market. Yes I am sitting here talking about re-tests and when to buy. But that is only with the cash I have left. We never got all the way out. But we did sell into the first rally off the first sell off some 3.5 weeks ago.
I am only sitting on 12-13% cash (had 25%). We bought in on 3/16, 3/18 and 3/23 That is all we have done so far. Those were the worst days and when fear was at it’s peak.
So we are participating in these rallies. I never go 100% cash.......the most cash I ever went to was 50% in summer 2008. That was something we were foreseeing. I worked at Bank of America back then. I sat on a CFO conference call in March 2008 and what I heard mortified me and I immediately sold all bank stocks to start with. I mean all of them. Including what I had in my 401K (60ish price range at that time) BOFA stock has never sniffed those levels since. We went all the way back in late February 2009 (missed the absolute bottom in March but again no one rings a bell for us at the top or bottom).
My point is.....this virus....no one could have seen this. This is a unique event but a far different one in many ways. So many unknowns with numbers being thrown around both socially and economically.
But the one known thing is......long term we will survive, recover and prosper once again. You buy stocks today with that hope of tomorrow in the long term. You can’t think now. You gotta think 5 and 10 years from now.
For my retired clients.....they already understood the risk of reaching for yield. Yield (interest rates) ar a measure of risk.....not return. People that are retired are in a different place.
But what about those that are near retirement? This was unprecedented. Because it was not something anyone could have seen. So retirement may have to be put off for another 12,18 or 24 months for some. All depends on income expectations. Some can still retire right now as long as they accept some volatility in earning those yields that are still attainable. In fact a lot of them selling at a deep discount (AT&T for example.....incredible long term value for that strong dividend). Hence why I was buying that on 3/23 hand over fist for everyone.
Sorry for the long winded response......but I can get on tangents. I love my work.
Bought in a little on 3/18. Should have done a little more around then. Hoping to get one more pass at SP 2400 or a little less.I am going to concede the rest of my cash in the next two weeks. My partner and I have been discussing this at length everyday. We expect to see the worst numbers of the virus and all the bearish economic pundits pounding the table next week and the week after. I would be mildly surprised if we do not see at least another 10% sell off. I say at least. It could be more. Once that starts next week we start nibbling in till the rest of the cash is gone and go long as usual.
No way I ever sit paralyzed. God no.
I made a boatload getting out at 60....buying BA at 25 bucks buying Dow Chemical at 5.50 Buying ASH at 9.00No it hasn't, but if you bravely got back in when BOA was $3.75 and then $4.50, you did pretty, pretty well. I have a buddy that literally put a large down payment on a large house just from BOA proceeds. Similar to BA these days.
Not adding anymore on long positions until I feel this has settled (which I have no confidence that is has). Have the ones I want to keep that I'm not selling no matter what happens and will look to add and buy others when this inevitably goes lower.Anyone buying into an afternoon sell off or wait for more down days? Debating MGM.
Well we going to find out!wonder if the last 20 minutes there will be a yuge selloff like yesterday