Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
Stock Thread (8 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
Ok, thought experiment that may become real. By the end of April, I’m expecting a significant drop in the markets so I’m selling to raise some cash. Instead of holding cash, why not buy some puts? They might be expensive but I want to “diversify” that way. The easy way is to buy a SPY put. But what about swinging for the fences? What company is going out of business? Simon malls? Cinemas? Pick your favorite dog—what do you got?
Now that they are under 10%, they are free to sell what they want and not disclose it for a chunk of time. This tells me that they are going to bail on airlines.
sporthenry
Footballguy
Conversely, could be setting up either a preferred deal or buying big in another airline.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
sporthenry
Footballguy
Think it’s a combination of Buffett filings and Delta CEO saying they’re burning $60 million per day. Probably more the former.
BREAKING: Delta Air Lines says it expects Q2 revenue to be down 90% and the company is burning through $60 million in cash every day.
The General
Footballguy
Man In The Box
Footballguy
Capella
Footballguy
Capella
Footballguy
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Ditto...We aren't going back to horses and trains and no one is going to buy a fleet of planes out of no where.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
eaganwildcats
Footballguy
Challenge Everything
Footballguy
Might also have something to do with the Department of Transportation telling airlines they must give refunds and not vouchers. Do these airlines have the cash to give back to the customers? That is a lot of cash to have on hand and I doubt they have it.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
sporthenry
Footballguy
The IV for a lot of those beaten down stocks are gonna be crazy. I’m short some consumer discretionary. Pulled the trigger a bit too quickly before the last bounce but things are coming back down.
AMC bonds are already in the 40s and hired advisors so it’s tough. Do think casinos might have more room to fall. Also think ARMK is going to be hurting with no sports. But for your purposes, I’d probably short like small caps.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Well, he might just be convinced the airline stocks are going to go down a lot, and then he could buy back at a big discount.
He doesnt have to have any malicious intent behind it.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
sporthenry
Footballguy
He also tries to stay above the fray. Not like an Ackman to go on tv then cover his shorts.
He could be either setting up an investment in another airline stock or maybe a large preferred in a bunch of them along with the government. Those would probably be the bullish plays if there were one.
Again, not his MO- he isn't much of a "trader", usually more of an accumulator.
Berkshire already has ~$125 Billion in cash, he could buy every airline right now if he wanted to.
Time will tell what his plans are, but I don't think we can read much into these transactions other than taking some risk off the table for now.
Last edited by a moderator:
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Brk very high on my watch list. This is exactly when he'll put all that cash to work.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I can’t do this with a stock like this, to me it’s too unpredictable, I’ll sell on an up day, and all of the sudden some press release runs it up 35% and I’m chasing it higher.Bob Sacamano said:
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
He buys when there is blood in the street, the fact that he’s selling airlines while the blood is flowing is mighty scary!humpback said:
sporthenry
Footballguy
Along those lines, I'm hoping some PE guys go further down. Going to try and fine the one with the lowest exposure to direct lending and most dry capital. They've been waiting for a buying opportunity. They'll squeeze what they can out of existing investments, deploy capital via distressed and buyouts.-OZ- said:
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
[icon]
Insoxicated
sporthenry
Footballguy
NY Post picked up Leronlimab this morning
https://nypost.com/2020/04/04/hiv-drug-that-treats-coronavirus-moving-to-phase-2-trials/
https://nypost.com/2020/04/04/hiv-drug-that-treats-coronavirus-moving-to-phase-2-trials/
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
They had an article last Saturday morning too.
I’m starting to think either Chet owns the NY Post or some high ranking member is long CYDY
chet
Footballguy
Sputnikv8
Footballguy
Planning to watch the oil segment Monday. Might re-open the door on stocks like MRO.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/04/oil-set-to-crater-monday-as-opec-meeting-delayed-tensions-flare-between-saudi-arabia-and-russia.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/04/oil-set-to-crater-monday-as-opec-meeting-delayed-tensions-flare-between-saudi-arabia-and-russia.html
eaganwildcats
Footballguy
Wish I had put more shorts on in oil. Trump’s tweet last week was pure fantasy. No way Russia and the Saudis cut 2/3 of their daily production without US producers agreeing to any cuts. They couldn’t agree on 1/10 if that reduction a month ago.
Charlie Harper
Footballguy
I'm thinking about buying Southwest Airlines stock. My thinking is after all this passes it'll go back to it's previous highs (feel free to correct me).
Now generally all my investing has been maxing out my 457 plan with S&P 500 to supplement CalPers for retirement. I also have a ROTH IRA that I have yet to make contributions for 2019.
If my goal is to sell SWA stock in the near term my only real option is just through Vanguard where I have my ROTH?
I guess basically am I stupid for not just buying the stock in the ROTH IRA vs non-tax advantaged account?
I'm 35 if that makes a difference.
Now generally all my investing has been maxing out my 457 plan with S&P 500 to supplement CalPers for retirement. I also have a ROTH IRA that I have yet to make contributions for 2019.
If my goal is to sell SWA stock in the near term my only real option is just through Vanguard where I have my ROTH?
I guess basically am I stupid for not just buying the stock in the ROTH IRA vs non-tax advantaged account?
I'm 35 if that makes a difference.
sporthenry
Footballguy
I mean I don't even think the market was pricing in 10 or 15 mmbbl/d cut from the two of them. Or else oil probably would have doubled. 10 seems high but that would have to be a cut among everyone. Obviously the market wasn't pricing in them not even getting to the table.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
caustic
Footballguy
I’m guessing this one: https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1245720677660925952?s=20
Just spoke to my friend MBS (Crown Prince) of Saudi Arabia, who spoke with President Putin of Russia, & I expect & hope that they will be cutting back approximately 10 Million Barrels, and maybe substantially more which, if it happens, will be GREAT for the oil & gas industry!
Jefferson the Caregiver
Rebel Without A Pause
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
No, no. Not "hu?", as in what are you talking about.
"Huh", as in I find it a shocking revelation that he would tweet and/or utter bull####.
I am out and about shopping at the grocery store. And I have a hard time believing that this crisis is fully baked in to where the markets are right now. It looks like a war zone out here and this entire amount month is supposed to be filled with more infected and more deaths. I’m a seller on Monday.
siffoin
Footballguy
cosjobs
Footballguy
I thinking putting all you can every year in a Roth is the way to go. I did not start until late in life. Its funded with post tax dollars and it can all be withdrawn in retirement, including all profits, with no tax consequences. I use it as my gambling type of account and try o hit homeruns with it, so if I connect on one, its free (non-taxable) retirement money. I think most start much earlier and and are more conservative.
It's baking in, but not fully finished cooking yet. Nobody knows how long this will last, except that the economy is basically shut down until further notice and the number of new cases/deaths will rise through April. It's pretty bad when I saw a Youtube video for making your own mask and I just ordered my supplies to pick up from Target. I guess this is the new normal.
I've been buying, but realize the bottom may still (and probably is) still to come. Thinking long-term on these so just buy (modest purchases) now, don't look and hope things return to normal in the next year or so. Trying to stay positive on stocks overall - most are down 30-40% off of their high a few months back and there's still plenty more to decline, but banking on longer-term.
bleachercreacher
Footballguy
I have a quick question, and this may not be the right place for it. We have paid off all debt other than house, cars, and her student loans and are in our mid 30's. Our financial guy is talking to us about a backdoor IRA vs. a life insurance retirement plan. He strongly suggested the life insurance retirement plan. We already have life insurance through him, but I felt like he was too pushy towards the life insurance and it rubbed me the wrong way. I'm not trying to get political, but he did. He was talking about how terrible Trump has been for the stock market and said people have been loosing money left and right for the last 3 years. First, I know we need to find someone else. We really wanted to aggressively pay off our credit cards before we talked about retirement and one of her friends liked this guy, but it's just not going to work out if I'm not comfortable. I have a friend that used a lady that he likes really well, we're going to meet with her when it's safe too. My wife is nervous about switching, but I'm hoping that meeting with a lady will make it easier on her. I wanted to see if I could get advice on the backdoor Roth vs. life insurance plan in the meantime though.
