If you are going to use a financial adviser I'd also recommend interviewing more than one. Make sure you feel comfortable with that person and they are comfortable with you. Even if it means talking to more than one Edward Jones rep, it's important that you know what they are going to do for you and what they expect from you. Siffoin gave you a good starting question. At any initial meeting you also want to avoid talking about what to invest in. You're interviewing them for the job of helping you manage YOUR money. A very general discussion of what they may use might be in order, but anything specific regarding your investments should be a red flag at the first meeting.
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Stock Thread (14 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
Rough start today, oof.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Slaughtered... Could this be the start of the correction I've been hearing about since 2013. Market feels real bearish the last week.St. Louis Bob said:
siffoin
Footballguy
How would you determine that? Framing the market like this puts you at a disadvantage because it is a mindset completely adrift.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I'm just looking at the 5 day on the major indexes... After the fed minutes was really the only relief, although it has rebounded a little off of the lows this morning.
Franknbeans
Footballguy
DGLY was the big runner today
siffoin
Footballguy
For an investor - remember you want to use Fundamental Analysis to tell you what to buy (or sell) and you want to use Technical Analysis to tell you when to buy (or sell) it.
My area is more in the technical side. And if we can assume that when the market eventually does turn bearish we will lose a certain % of the value from our portfolio from the absolute high - we would look for a place to confirm a real shift in trend. Because each investor has a unique set of investment objectives it's impossible for me to say precisely when the market turns bearish for YOU. But in general terms I'm looking for breaks of 1940 on the $ES (SP500 Futures) and then 1850ish and probably out around 1810ish. That we got 5 pts from 1940 today certainly makes me pay some attention, but at this point I'm looking at this as a opportunity to add/buy on a ST sell-off in a bull market more than anything else. Of course I'm waiting for a ST confirmation that this sell-off phase has passed. So I'm sitting on my hands right this second.
Investing is not a game of perfect - but that doesn't mean you can be lazy with your portfolio either. At this point in time I'd be surprised if the TOP is already in. (though I'm open to changing my mind if/when the downside targets get hit.)
Mario Kart
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
So for someone technical like you, when the market begins to sell, do you look at these times as buying opportunities until the selling hits a certain number, in which case it has flipped to bearish?
siffoin
Footballguy
Essentially I'm looking to make sure that levels of support hold and then I wait until a short term (example: 60m) chart turn back bullish and then look for adds or new buys.
If support doesn't hold (that support becomes resistance) - I'm then going to wait to see if the resistance can be overcome or what happens as price continues to fall to the next level of support.
If the market trend were to turn bearish - I think that trend "flip" would be a process. Sure anything can happen but the odds of the market crashing and never recovering back to the old highs in a trend flip are always incredibly small. And in a juiced market like we have now...I would think it nearly impossible that the major players won't get multiple opportunities to unload near the highs to Joe public - conditioned to buy every sell-off.
That's why we want to pay attention when the market is vulnerable, but at the same time recognize that vulnerability as opportunity - one way or the other. Recognizing the near levels of support and plans for exits are always in place because one day I'm going to buy the sell-off that is actually the end of this bull trend.
Your portfolio is going to take a hit in a bear market. The key is to minimize that hit and take advantage of that opportunity.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Thanks for that Siff!
Are you/anyone else looking at SAN? They have come down pretty hard over the last couple of weeks after a good run. Think this might be a decent buying opportunity depending on how things in Portugal shake out. I like their business model, aggressive expansion, & gigantic dividend.
Anyone invested in them?
Are you/anyone else looking at SAN? They have come down pretty hard over the last couple of weeks after a good run. Think this might be a decent buying opportunity depending on how things in Portugal shake out. I like their business model, aggressive expansion, & gigantic dividend.
Anyone invested in them?
General Malaise
Footballguy
Avoid, GB. There is absolutely nothing in the immediate future to suggest higher spot prices. It's a disaster.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I'd expect to see some greedy people in jail soon...
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
General Malaise
Footballguy
Well, no doubt, they are very smart. Unfortunately, I don't think they have the same access to industry insiders, utility managers, production personnel and analysts that we do. To a man, ALL players are completely despondent about what has happened to their industry and sadly, there's no end in sight to the amount of material overhanging the market. Japan's problems became the world's problems and nobody - smart or otherwise - could have predicted this in 2011. It's a ####### ### #### abortion is what it is.
General Malaise
Footballguy
that said, i'm not selling what I own because really...what's the point?
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
It's like an abortion did too much heroin and puked up a holocaust is what it is.
Well yeah...
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Man, that SLB has a purty mouf.
siffoin
Footballguy
IMO: This is the kind of chart you want to sell immediately, you might get lucky and see it move towards $10.50. But this is not the technically "when" you'd be looking to enter.
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
Also, fwiw, the dividend is a pain. Default is stock. You could alternatively select cash, from which the deduct 21% Spanish tax or they can sell your rights for a not-guaranteed amount and I assume a capital gain. They do invite you to nice vents in NYC, though, like Carnegie Hall and receptions at the NYSE. (ETA- I no longer own.)
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siffoin
Footballguy
I feel like I'd be stretching a chart to fit in the question you are asking. Like the guy who ran stats for my graduate thesis said "what would you like your research to show?"
While every major trend has similarities with the past - they are each unique onto themselves. The SP500 is really the index driving everything. THAT is probably the uniqueness to this trend. I think there is some overall concern that we are approaching a major top- but imo the market (SP500) is still bullish. Even the $RUT has under-performed - it is still bullish too.
JaxBill
Footballguy
HaltedI'd expect to see some greedy people in jail soon...
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-11/sec-finally-gets-involved-cynk-one-short-has-big-problem
on that Cynk story
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
Oh man that yahoo message board link in the articleHaltedI'd expect to see some greedy people in jail soon...
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-11/sec-finally-gets-involved-cynk-one-short-has-big-problem
-- some dude was shorting it.-QG
GoBirds
Footballguy
Bump to ask for recommendations on brokerage to set up a temporary account for our company to sell this stock once its processed. Who would you recommend to keep cost lowest and make a one time trade/account set up & closing as painless as possible?
Ted Lange as your Bartender
Footballguy
I know there's still two weeks left and anything can happen but so far ADRE has been a great sector rotation move this month
Good call siff
Good call siff
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Skylord
Footballguy
Earnings season question. How do you correlate what the market is expecting in terms of earnings and how much a beat or loss will affect the overall stock price? As a point of reference, I was looking at this page:
http://l2.yimg.com/bt/api/res/1.2/cDxpAxjWsX3qiOBXCJL3ww--/YXBwaWQ9eW5ld3M7cT04NQ--/http://globalfinance.zenfs.com/en_us/Finance/US_AFTP_SILICONALLEY_H_LIVE/GOLDMAN_We_Think_These_22-5a33e4c6f05da894d1ab493293ee480e
GS predicts CNX will dramatically outperform what the market is looking for. Since this article was posted, CNX has dropped considerably. So my question is, if CNX hits the consensus number (0.26) where will that take the stock price? If it hits GS number (0.37) where will that take the stock price?
http://l2.yimg.com/bt/api/res/1.2/cDxpAxjWsX3qiOBXCJL3ww--/YXBwaWQ9eW5ld3M7cT04NQ--/http://globalfinance.zenfs.com/en_us/Finance/US_AFTP_SILICONALLEY_H_LIVE/GOLDMAN_We_Think_These_22-5a33e4c6f05da894d1ab493293ee480e
GS predicts CNX will dramatically outperform what the market is looking for. Since this article was posted, CNX has dropped considerably. So my question is, if CNX hits the consensus number (0.26) where will that take the stock price? If it hits GS number (0.37) where will that take the stock price?
General Malaise
Footballguy
Another Canadian small-cap that is seeing a lot of buying interest of late: EXO U
I added this to my PA today at $2.59 with the full acknowledgement that it's had a tremendous run already. Heard it from a good source that the CEO of a certain gaming company that had a nice run recently is in this one personally, which means next to nothing other than he's had the golden touch of late. It's a nice sized position for our funds and I decided to pull the trigger this morning. EXOXF for US buyers.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
While I'm intrigued, if I buy so much as $5,000 of this stuff, I'll move the market... That scares me.General Malaise said:
General Malaise
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Market getting rolled to close the day... Hope this doesn't continue into tomorrow.
culdeus
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
culdeus
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Skylord
Footballguy
General Malaise
Footballguy
Gold also up big today.
But I think this is par for the course on tragic global news. Tomorrow should be interesting, but overall, trading volume is very low right now, as is the case in mid-July. I don't think guys will be rushing in sell tickets from the Hamptons on a downed plane.
siffoin
Footballguy
The PI has been pretty accurate at identifying turn points in the mkt. In the past 5 years or so it has pegged a number of those points. At bearish turns the mkt typically dropped about minimum 50+ pts (sometimes it's been more, maybe a few times a little less). At bullish turns the markets has run minimum 100+ pts. In hindsight we can say ignoring the bearish PI signals and adding on the bullish ones would have been the ideal strategy since the 09 lows. But one could definitely TRADE the PI successfully- if the win rate isn't 100% it's pretty close.
Now we have the PI flipping bearish today. So we can probably expect a drop of 50+ pts from the highs of today. A PI trend trend typically last at a minimum of a few weeks...sometimes they can last for months.
What has me more piqued is that longer term DOW major bull/bear indicator. This was an indicator that I discovered/developed last year - and posted an article at Steelhedge about a impending drop- that didn't happen. But I've kept the chart and studied in the months since. I posted some charts of that with an explanation prior to the big drop today.
Honestly - if we were at some kind of significant top and this indicator were to peg it - I'd be shocked.
With that said - technically we're sitting on a pretty significant level of support and unfortunately the next level is about 130 SP500 pts from here at 1815ish.
We should see a bounce of some kind within a few days - it's what the charts look like when that bounce completes that will give a better picture of where we sit within the 5 year major bull trend.
Not including today's sell-off --the market action of the futs for the last few days - seems "off". I want to say something is rotten and the big boys have the message and are passing off to the bag holders. But that's probably just the pessimist in me. Color me concerned- but not panicked. Yet.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I've only been investing for myself for a couple of years... I basically have the skills of a beginner when it comes to trading on my own, but this market is ridiculous. At some point when it turns, it has to turn ugly and quick, but for now, wow!! For the more seasoned investors, is this the craziest market you have ever participated in?
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siffoin
Footballguy
1999-00 was more crazy by far. Stupid companies were flying 10-50% on a weekly basis. Avg schmo's were riding the EDIG's and Pets.com and Redbacks to fortune and failure. Infospace was priced at at $1200+ in 2000 - and a year later it was trading around $30. In 1999-early 2000, at the close of the market you could ring Maria Bartiromo's panties and fill a small swimming pool on a daily basis.
What you see these days is more of a "coordinated" effort to make sure support levels hold - a lot of "work" gets done in the overnight futures markets. But it really doesn't take much "work" either. Not a lot of bears left anymore.
As I mentioned - what will be interesting for the mid-longer term is what the charts look like after this ST bull move we're seeing today expires.
It's not a bad idea to begin to formulate a plan. The market is at a potential tipping point moment. It has overcome all of these "moments" in the past 5 years. And I lean towards it being able to overcome this one now. But no one knows the future. Without a plan you are essentially relegating yourself to a "buy and holder." Technically Buy and Hold means- an investor who doesn't believe in any form of risk management. In other words - a sucker.
I've yet to sell any positions I hold. But I'm working on a plan on when/where we'd look to hedge and how much rope I want to give myself to hang. Again - no need to panic...but certainly pay closer attention imo.
