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8 minutes ago, Wooderson said:

What price are you willing to jump in at?

3.02 was the first buy

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10 minutes ago, humpback said:

What time frame are you talking here?

Just an fyi, it's tough psychologically but the market doesn't care about your cost basis so try to make investing decisions based on where you think it's going, not where it's been (or what you paid).

Today. Might move some stocks the are slightly down for ones down significantly. Not factoring past performance. It’s just hard to sell something you like but I’ve done well recently trading oversold stocks 

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17 minutes ago, Big League Chew said:

Disney looking tempting

Just got a little for $99.89

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3 minutes ago, Guinis72 said:

Just got a little for $99.89

Wasn't as quick on the draw, but happy with $100.06

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1 minute ago, lakerstan said:

Wasn't as quick on the draw, but happy with $100.06

I sat there and hit refresh for like 5 mins as it hovered around $100 just for the psychological peace of paying less than $100.  I continued to do it as I kept telling myself $0.10/share isn't going to make a difference on 50 shares.  Lol.  I think DIS anywhere around $100 is a W though!

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Posted (edited)

EBAY has finished higher every day since April 1st.  Not one down day.

Edited by Don Hutson

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43 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

3.02 was the first buy

I know next to nothing about USO. Is there a carrying cost for owning it? Is there something similar but that’s more leveraged? My antenna is up.

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48 minutes ago, chet said:

I'd short any May oil contract settling in Cushing, OK if any of those contracts trade in the black today. 

Any pro trader that gets caught long at expiration (230 EST today I believe) is risking their futures license if they aren't able to physically settle the contract.  

I do not know what this means, but it sounds juicy.

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Huge DIS fan myself. I've had a core holding for 10 years that I've added to over time. I sold 1/2 of it a few weeks ago. I remember in 2018 the stock being punished when ESPN was losing subscribers, and that was with sports being played, parks were full, movies raking in cash. Today, if Disney was a stool, it has 3 of its four legs completely cut off. It will rebound at some point, but they are a social company and I feel it is overvalued in this new reality.

 

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Just now, pecorino said:

I know next to nothing about USO. Is there a carrying cost for owning it? Is there something similar but that’s more leveraged? My antenna is up.

I mean there is carrying cost for owning oil which flows through to the price of oil. Think UCO is 2x that and it just underwent a 1:25 reverse split. I wouldn't touch these things with a 10 foot pole. I bought some death puts on it for fun but they could easily liquidate this thing or CME could stop allowing ETFs to buy contracts or force them to sell.

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11 minutes ago, pecorino said:

I know next to nothing about USO. Is there a carrying cost for owning it? Is there something similar but that’s more leveraged? My antenna is up.

The oil market is basically broken at this point.  There is nothing rationale about a barrel of oil being priced at -$37.  I would stay away from any of this.  

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On 4/13/2020 at 2:57 PM, GStrot said:

well, Trump was wrong.  They agreed to 10 million barrels (sort of) and oil prices are flat.  Not exactly “GREAT”.  They are out of room to cut and running out of storage.  I am still short oil.   

Whee! 

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1 hour ago, BassNBrew said:

Anyone buying today?  If so, what are you targeting.  

Hard to sell anything for a loss, but I might move money from small losers to bargain hunt

Maybe, but probably just sitting on it today.

1 hour ago, Big League Chew said:

Disney looking tempting

Yep. Under $100 starts to look very enticing.

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13 minutes ago, ericttspikes said:

Huge DIS fan myself. I've had a core holding for 10 years that I've added to over time. I sold 1/2 of it a few weeks ago. I remember in 2018 the stock being punished when ESPN was losing subscribers, and that was with sports being played, parks were full, movies raking in cash. Today, if Disney was a stool, it has 3 of its four legs completely cut off. It will rebound at some point, but they are a social company and I feel it is overvalued in this new reality.

 

Just picked up more at 99.95.  Agree with your premise, but also happy to wait for that rebound you mention.

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53 minutes ago, The Lost One said:

Man, Shopify is a beast!  Like a mini Amazon. 

You jinxed it.

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1 hour ago, chet said:

I'd short any May oil contract settling in Cushing, OK if any of those contracts trade in the black today. 

Any pro trader that gets caught long at expiration (230 EST today I believe) is risking their futures license if they aren't able to physically settle the contract.  

Retail accounts aren’t able to trade May.  But Continuing to ride June down is an option.  Name your next boat Contango.  

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55 minutes ago, Guinis72 said:
1 hour ago, Big League Chew said:

Disney looking tempting

Just got a little for $99.89

Picked up some DIS right at 100.03.  Netflix has earnings after hours, so we could see some big moves in the streaming space.

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4 minutes ago, lakerstan said:

Just picked up more at 99.95.  Agree with your premise, but also happy to wait for that rebound you mention.

....and that was crappy timing...

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Posted (edited)

I was going to sell some TTD yesterday when it was over 240. Looks like a bad call to not shave some off. Had been running nicely above the S&P and was even up around 10, but the bottom fell out and I don’t own anything oil related.

Looks like it might have started. Damn if I didn’t feel like selling some after that really nice rally. Anything that’s been on a run lately is getting hammered. Still got CYDY and some cash so will just hold on and try and find some nice buys.

Edited by stbugs

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13 hours ago, -OZ- said:

It's fun to discuss these things. 

But I'm not paying ~1% annually. Plus the active part of my portfolio is less than 10% of my total.

But, I can definitely see the value in a fee only advisor.

I worked in the 'biz 20+ years ago, not long, but long enough to figure out that the 80-20 rule was very much true in that industry like Real Estate, salesmen, etc. My guess is a guy like Todem with that much longevity and success is in the 20%.

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7 minutes ago, stbugs said:

I was going to sell some TTD yesterday when it was over 240. Looks like a bad call to not shave some off. Had been running nicely above the S&P and was even up around 10, but the bottom fell out and I don’t own anything oil related.

I sold some Friday at 228 and was regretting a bit yesterday as it surged.  Not sure why it's hit so hard today but I still like it long term and will look to re-enter at some point.  Good company.  

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1 hour ago, BassNBrew said:

Anyone buying today?  If so, what are you targeting.  

Hard to sell anything for a loss, but I might move money from small losers to bargain hunt

Nope. We are sitting right on a ledge right now.

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1 hour ago, BassNBrew said:

Today. Might move some stocks the are slightly down for ones down significantly. Not factoring past performance. It’s just hard to sell something you like but I’ve done well recently trading oversold stocks 

I meant for holding period. Seems like you're trying for quick profits, which is incredibly difficult. IMO the market is overvalued here and won't bounce much unless we get really good news on the virus or huge amounts of additional money printing/stimulus, but good luck timing that.

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1 minute ago, Jayrok said:

I sold some Friday at 228 and was regretting a bit yesterday as it surged.  Not sure why it's hit so hard today but I still like it long term and will look to re-enter at some point.  Good company.  

I should have sold some yesterday. I like it long term as well but it’s one of my largest holdings so I wanted to trim my exposure a bit. Oh well, if it picks back up this afternoon I might but yes to was the day. 

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At some point I also like DIS too but I'm just sitting out putting any cash in at these market levels.  I'm good with it if I'm wrong longer term being that it would mean that the economy is going to emerge in a stronger position than I think it will.

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Anything up today? Pretty ugly day. Stay at home / work from home stocks getting smoked. Gold down. That can't be a great sign. Can't bring myself to buy a 1% 30-year.

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47 minutes ago, ericttspikes said:

Huge DIS fan myself. I've had a core holding for 10 years that I've added to over time. I sold 1/2 of it a few weeks ago. I remember in 2018 the stock being punished when ESPN was losing subscribers, and that was with sports being played, parks were full, movies raking in cash. Today, if Disney was a stool, it has 3 of its four legs completely cut off. It will rebound at some point, but they are a social company and I feel it is overvalued in this new reality.

Agreed. I also like it/own it/not selling but no idea why so many people are tripping over themselves to buy here. It was much lower a month ago, and that was when people thought things might get back to "normal" fairly quickly.

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Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, Jayrok said:

I sold some Friday at 228 and was regretting a bit yesterday as it surged.  Not sure why it's hit so hard today but I still like it long term and will look to re-enter at some point.  Good company.  

I've said my piece on this but it's actually been shocking that it's held up for the last two weeks.  A sell off is inevitable.  Ad spend is way down and will not really resume until q4.

People can point to streaming but CTV is not a big part of media budgets right now.  Its a space in its infancy that not a lot of dollars are going into yet.

More bad news is coming, Facebook will report earnings end of month, expect a big drop off in March and bad guidance going forward.

If my open option is any indication, I have a 195 p expiring 7/18/2020 and its up 46% right now, stock price currently at $214

TTD is a good company and it will come back but the next six months are gonna be rough

Edited by Jefferson the Caregiver
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9 minutes ago, sporthenry said:

Anything up today? Pretty ugly day. Stay at home / work from home stocks getting smoked. Gold down. That can't be a great sign. Can't bring myself to buy a 1% 30-year.

Your tankers are. Tnk stng fro wht. Added more yesterday as oil tanked. Thanks again 

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11 minutes ago, sporthenry said:

Anything up today? Pretty ugly day. Stay at home / work from home stocks getting smoked. Gold down. That can't be a great sign. Can't bring myself to buy a 1% 30-year.

Ominous sign for sure.

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3 minutes ago, Jefferson the Caregiver said:

I've said my piece on this but it's actually been shocking that it's held up for the last two weeks.  A sell off is inevitable.  Ad spend is way down and will not really resume until q4.

People can point to streaming but CTV is not a big part of media budgets right now.  Its a space in its infancy that not a lot of dollars are going into yet.

More bad news is coming, Facebook will report earnings end of month, expect a big drop off in March and bad guidance going forward.

If my open option is any indication, I have a 195 p expiring 7/18/2020 and its up 46% right now, stock price currently at $214

I saw where Expedia's group chairman said they probably won't spend $1B in advertising this year (they usually spend $5B a year) and advertising spending across the board will be hit in the 2nd quarter.  Part of the reason I sold.  I do think long term it will be a good investment but right now and for the short-mid term, it's going to get beaten down.

I like your chances with your put option.  Hope you kill it.  

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2 hours ago, chet said:

Negative volatility in a sector tends to spread to other sectors and asset classes.  That is why negative performance is more correlated across sectors and asset classes.

Negative volatility?  Is that like VIX*SQRT(-1)?

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7 minutes ago, humpback said:

Ominous sign for sure.

Perhaps it is just profit taking in the ZM, AMZN, etc given states are starting to reopen. But haven't seen casino stocks or restaurants pop. Perhaps finally pricing in depressed levels of activities.

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27 minutes ago, sporthenry said:

Anything up today? Pretty ugly day. Stay at home / work from home stocks getting smoked. Gold down. That can't be a great sign. Can't bring myself to buy a 1% 30-year.

Wolverine worldwide. But it got crushed yesterday.

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4 minutes ago, sporthenry said:

Perhaps it is just profit taking in the ZM, AMZN, etc given states are starting to reopen. But haven't seen casino stocks or restaurants pop. Perhaps finally pricing in depressed levels of activities.

That's the million dollar question, is it a short term or a long term shift?

It seems highly unlikely to be based on possible good news of states reopening because as you mentioned then other names would be doing well. That's what we've had for a while now, a shift back and forth between stay-at-home plays and start-to-reopen plays. This may just be some profit taking in the stay-at-home plays, but it's clearly risk off (for now at least).

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17 minutes ago, Sand said:

Negative volatility?  Is that like VIX*SQRT(-1)?

I was referring to rising volatility in a declining sector.

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2 hours ago, BassNBrew said:

I may take a small position and chase it down

Re: USO

I did too as it came back down to 3.00.  Went half in with the amount I feel comfortable playing with.  Have a buy limit in at 2.70 (-10%) for another 1/4th.   

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15 minutes ago, humpback said:

That's the million dollar question, is it a short term or a long term shift?

It seems highly unlikely to be based on possible good news of states reopening because as you mentioned then other names would be doing well. That's what we've had for a while now, a shift back and forth between stay-at-home plays and start-to-reopen plays. This may just be some profit taking in the stay-at-home plays, but it's clearly risk off (for now at least).

Yeah, I mean that correlation seems to be breaking but I'd say maybe the market is finally pricing in some ultimate demand destruction and it isn't a zero sum game. 

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14 minutes ago, beef said:

Re: USO

I did too as it came back down to 3.00.  Went half in with the amount I feel comfortable playing with.  Have a buy limit in at 2.70 (-10%) for another 1/4th.   

coming soon...to a closed theater near you!

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Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, Sputnikv8 said:

coming soon...to a closed theater near you!

Kind of feeling like I'll walk away and come back to see USO at 2.50.  Or lower...  

Edit.  Make that $2.00 because I haven't walked away yet.  Halted at $2.53.

Edited by beef

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55 minutes ago, Jefferson the Caregiver said:

I've said my piece on this but it's actually been shocking that it's held up for the last two weeks.  A sell off is inevitable.  Ad spend is way down and will not really resume until q4.

People can point to streaming but CTV is not a big part of media budgets right now.  Its a space in its infancy that not a lot of dollars are going into yet.

More bad news is coming, Facebook will report earnings end of month, expect a big drop off in March and bad guidance going forward.

If my open option is any indication, I have a 195 p expiring 7/18/2020 and its up 46% right now, stock price currently at $214

TTD is a good company and it will come back but the next six months are gonna be rough

I wish I would have pulled the trigger on something similar a few weeks ago after you mentioned it several times. Feels too late now.

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I just sold my Amazon.  I don't want to risk a plunge.  It won't likely go higher anytime soon.  I'll probably buy it back in 1-4 weeks.

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29 minutes ago, humpback said:

That's the million dollar question, is it a short term or a long term shift?

It seems highly unlikely to be based on possible good news of states reopening because as you mentioned then other names would be doing well. That's what we've had for a while now, a shift back and forth between stay-at-home plays and start-to-reopen plays. This may just be some profit taking in the stay-at-home plays, but it's clearly risk off (for now at least).

Could point to another wave of liquidity problems. You sell your winners last.

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6 minutes ago, Don Hutson said:

I just sold my Amazon.  I don't want to risk a plunge.  It won't likely go higher anytime soon.  I'll probably buy it back in 1-4 weeks.

It was upgraded to 2800 today. I think it may have a pop in it Thursday. 

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2 hours ago, The Ref said:

I don’t think this is a “time to buy”.  The chart reads 2750 as a fairly important place.  If we break that to the downside it puts 2600 firmly on the table and breaks the upward trend in the process.

Im on all dry power in my trading account.

Noob question - with technical analysis like this are you strictly looking at the close, or do intraday levels come into play?  

We're at 2,735 right now.

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4 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

Something in oil has to skyrocket over the next year right?  Right??

Yeah but skyrocket from what level? It is about timing to some degree. Sounds like we're going to bailout the energy industry but those will be a lot uglier than the airline bailouts. They aren't going to give grants to them. Loans will be secured and will be lots of warrants. The survivors will skyrocket but OXY could be in the low single digits. 

USL could be interesting. Or long dated contracts that are getting dragged down from this. December contract isn't going to double but $50 oil isn't completely out of the question. 

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1 hour ago, Jefferson the Caregiver said:

I've said my piece on this but it's actually been shocking that it's held up for the last two weeks.  A sell off is inevitable.  Ad spend is way down and will not really resume until q4.

People can point to streaming but CTV is not a big part of media budgets right now.  Its a space in its infancy that not a lot of dollars are going into yet.

More bad news is coming, Facebook will report earnings end of month, expect a big drop off in March and bad guidance going forward.

If my open option is any indication, I have a 195 p expiring 7/18/2020 and its up 46% right now, stock price currently at $214

TTD is a good company and it will come back but the next six months are gonna be rough

Differentiate from GOOGL and ROKU for me, would you? They in the same boat in your opinion? Ads are ads? There's a reason they're different?

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5 minutes ago, JerseyToughGuys said:

I wish I would have pulled the trigger on something similar a few weeks ago after you mentioned it several times. Feels too late now.

Yeah, agreed the puts are getting really expensive.  The action has been pretty ridiculous on them though.  

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