Stock Thread (18 Viewers)

[BassNBrew]

Also when does Fidelity post the dailey index gains/losses to your account?

 

[ConstruxBoy]

With airplanes being idle, couldn't we fly them to Cushing and store oil in them?

But wouldn't some oil from coach seep into first class? 

 

[ConstruxBoy]

With all of this trading, I'm now up to 45 different stocks that I currently own.  With Amazon and Google being about 20% of the holdings, that means 80% spread among 43 stocks.  Now some of this is sectors plays like 3 airlines, 4 tankers, 3 PPP abusers, 3 oil, etc to reduce risk.  Am I getting to diversified with too many holdings?  On the plus side I've heard that it's smart to limit your individual holding in a single stock (forget the rule of thumb).  On the down side, at some point the Bass Fund is just so watered down it becomes the BUD Fund and just follows the market.

Just curious how aggressive/sensible other here are.

I've always felt that 25-30 was my limit unless it was my full time job. And that was for investing more than trading. 

 

[[icon]]

Damn... Diversified As Fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu.....

NO way I could follow that many positions without it being full time   I admire your enthusiasm! 

 

[BassNBrew]

I've always felt that 25-30 was my limit unless it was my full time job. And that was for investing more than trading. 

Damn... Diversified As Fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu.....

NO way I could follow that many positions without it being full time   I admire your enthusiasm! 

It’s not that bad when you have icon and construction boy from the Internet following the news on your behalf

 

[Nick Vermeil]

Joining this crew.  Not sure about you all, but everyone I know is drinking more these days.  
 

Sold Facebook thinking ad revenue will cause it to take a hit and bought beer stock.  

I only drink craft beer theses days until my money runs out. I picked up my biweekly stock a few days ago and I asked the guy at Industrial Arts how he was doing and he said “People aren’t drinking less beer.”

 

[ghostguy123]

Bought a few cases of BUD at $42 

There's definitely concern if sports don't come back, but eventually the king of beers will return. PE below 10, dividend 4.65%. fairly typical rebound play.

Another red day for BUD tomorrow and I just might join.

Full disclosure, I am a Miller Lite guy.

 

[BassNBrew]

Another red day for BUD tomorrow and I just might join.

Full disclosure, I am a Miller Lite guy.

Full disclosure. it comes out of the same urinal

 

[[icon]]

Between Seltzers, Craft Beers, Gen Y not drinking much, and bars/restaurants being closed...... BUD makes me nervous near term. 

That said, a buddy who owns a liquor store told him his beer sales are up 350%... though a LOT of it is the local craft stuff. 

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Between Seltzers, Craft Beers, Gen Y not drinking much, and bars/restaurants being closed...... BUD makes me nervous near term. 

Are hard seltzers really going to have any more of an impact long term than hard lemonades or smirnoffs or zimas did?

I think it's a fad.

 

[Sand]

Then the legislation should have included the caveat that you demonstrate loss of revenue when applying. 

Applying for EIDL funds I guessed at my revenue impact.  This isn't a past event, this is present and ongoing.  Not that it matters - nice of them to change the rules after I got mine in to exclude me.  Haven't gotten email one back from the SBA, either.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I'm getting a little worried because I have a good chunk in tankers and WSB is all over tankers as of today.  Everyone knows everything WSB touches turns to ash.

 

[lod001]

APA ($9.50) up 10% today, up 17% from what I bought it on Monday ($8.15).  Anyone else here own APA?  It is Merrill's top energy pick and they have price target of $22.  High beta play, lot of debt but most over 2/3rds of debt not due until at least 2028.

Yep.

 

[Lacey]

Between Seltzers, Craft Beers, Gen Y not drinking much, and bars/restaurants being closed...... BUD makes me nervous near term. 

That said, a buddy who owns a liquor store told him his beer sales are up 350%... though a LOT of it is the local craft stuff. 

To be fair BUD owns a lot of larger craft breweries as well.  I believe Goose Island, Elysian, and others.

 

[commoncents]

Are hard seltzers really going to have any more of an impact long term than hard lemonades or smirnoffs or zimas did?

I think it's a fad.

I'm a millennial with mostly millennial friends. Prior to COVID shutdowns, when we would have get togethers, 2/3 would bring hard seltzers, 1/6 wine and 1/6 beer. I don't think it's a fad and it seems like there is a real shift in the drinking preferences amongst millennials and Gen Zer's.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Seeking Alpha: Apple will add $75-100M in buybacks - analysts (NASDAQ:AAPL).
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3563228-apple-will-add-75minus-100m-in-buybacks-analysts

 

[Jefferson the Caregiver]

I'm a millennial with mostly millennial friends. Prior to COVID shutdowns, when we would have get togethers, 2/3 would bring hard seltzers, 1/6 wine and 1/6 beer. I don't think it's a fad and it seems like there is a real shift in the drinking preferences amongst millennials and Gen Zer's.

I remember when Bartles and Jaymes wine coolers were big.  Every single one of these has a shelf life, white claw won't be any different.

There may always be one that is hot but it won't be the same one from even 2 years ago.

 

[caustic]

DFS: -$0.25 EPS vs. $0.94 expected, down 5% after hours

 

[BassNBrew]

Between Seltzers, Craft Beers, Gen Y not drinking much, and bars/restaurants being closed...... BUD makes me nervous near term. 

That said, a buddy who owns a liquor store told him his beer sales are up 350%... though a LOT of it is the local craft stuff. 

https://www.budlight.com

https://www.wickedweedbrewing.com

We've got an answer for that.  

Also, while everything you said is true, we're just looking to get back to last years 80-100 price when they still mostly served swill and Gen Y was 6 months younger.  Dividend yield is also huge on this stock.  This is about as automatic of a double up as there is out there by the end of next year.

 

[BassNBrew]

DFS: -$0.25 EPS vs. $0.94 expected, down 5% after hours

The fine print doesn't look as bad, however next quarter...

Discover Financial Q1 reflects $1.1B reserve build

Discover Financial (NYSEFS) Q1 loss per share of 25 cents reflects a billion-dollar boost in its provision for loan losses.

The company has suspended share buybacks, launched "Skip-a-Payment" programs for customers affected by COVID-19, and is implementing $400M of expense reductions.

Q1 provision for loan losses of $1.81B vs. $836M in Q4 and $809M in the year-ago quarter; reserve build of $1.1B compares with $94M in Q1 2019.

Q1 credit card net charge-off rate 3.65% of vs. 3.41% in Q4 2019 and 3.50% in Q1 2019; delinquency rate for credit card loans was 2.62%, up 17 basis points Y/Y and flat vs. prior quarter.

Q1 total revenue net of interest expense $2.89B vs. $2.88B estimate and up 5% Y/Y.

Total loans at the end of the quarter were $93.0B, up 5% Y/Y.

Direct Banking pretax loss of $161M, down $1.0B than a year ago due to an increase in the provision for credit losses and higher operating expenses partially offset by higher net interest income.

Payment Services pretax income of $83M rose $32M Y/Y,  primarily driven 

 

[NajehHejan]

I only drink craft beer theses days until my money runs out. I picked up my biweekly stock a few days ago and I asked the guy at Industrial Arts how he was doing and he said “People aren’t drinking less beer.”

Industrial Arts may be my favorite brewer. Wrench and Torque Wrench - amazing!

Stonks go up. (just to make sure I add something stock related)

 

[BassNBrew]

Lost 7/10th of a percent to the S&P today.  Not a good day.

 

[sporthenry]

When you look at companies raising capital, I can't tell if it's just opportunistic especially given the rally or a sign of things to come. ARMK just raised $1.5bn of debt at 6.375%. PFGC, a food provider to restaurants (has moved some of its business to grocery stores) just raised debt and equity. EXPE doing a $1bn deal with private equity. 

It is likely the smart play and at this point, it's about survival first. I suppose none of  us really knows how this plays out but raising equity at levels 45% of pre-COVID levels is super expensive. Would think you wouldn't deal with PE if you didn't have to. 

 

[-OZ-]

DFS: -$0.25 EPS vs. $0.94 expected, down 5% after hours

Time to buy more.

 

[sporthenry]

$USO halted trading. Announced they will allocated 20/50/20/10 mix for June/July/August/Sept and might also diversify into other oil products. Provides stability, but continues to destroy more value as it sells June barrels and moves up the futures curve to purchase August/Sept barrels.

Yep. Now it's just an oil hedge fund managed by ETF providers. Probably just get out of my puts. Guess they fix the inherent problem wrong with the structure near-term just to bleed people's money over a longer time frame. 

Now only trading at a 9% premium to NAV after being down 11% when front-month contract was up 20%. 

Now they're selling, 52k contracts JUN contracts at $13  and 13k JUL contracts at $21.5 to buy 22k AUG contracts at $23.75 and 13k SEP contracts at $25.8. 

 

[ghostguy123]

Time to buy more.

I was just going to get on here and ask why the heck I just saw DFS down 5% within a few hours of the close after it went up during the day.  Poor earnings report?  

Are you really buying more or was that sarcasm

 

[commoncents]

Yep. Now it's just an oil hedge fund managed by ETF providers. Probably just get out of my puts. Guess they fix the inherent problem wrong with the structure near-term just to bleed people's money over a longer time frame. 

Now only trading at a 9% premium to NAV after being down 11% when front-month contract was up 20%. 

Now they're selling, 52k contracts JUN contracts at $13  and 13k JUL contracts at $21.5 to buy 22k AUG contracts at $23.75 and 13k SEP contracts at $25.8. 

I am in the same position and will look to close out my positions tomorrow should oil futures drop. Looks like this will be a slow bleed instead of a catastrophic bang.

 

[ghostguy123]

Hey, is anyone able to point me in the right direction with either a book or youtube tutorial on determining the value of a stock?  Just wondering where some of you may have gotten what you consider to be some valuable knowledge.  

 

[[icon]]

https://www.budlight.com

https://www.wickedweedbrewing.com

We've got an answer for that.  

Also, while everything you said is true, we're just looking to get back to last years 80-100 price when they still mostly served swill and Gen Y was 6 months younger.  Dividend yield is also huge on this stock.  This is about as automatic of a double up as there is out there by the end of next year.

Some stuff for BUD

https://imgur.com/a/d6aekGI

 

[-OZ-]

I was just going to get on here and ask why the heck I just saw DFS down 5% within a few hours of the close after it went up during the day.  Poor earnings report?  

Are you really buying more or was that sarcasm

I'm just holding, but I'm not the least bit worried about a down quarter right now. 

 

[commoncents]

Hey, is anyone able to point me in the right direction with either a book or youtube tutorial on determining the value of a stock?  Just wondering where some of you may have gotten what you consider to be some valuable knowledge.  

When I first started investing, I read The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham.

You may also want to read the shareholder letters for Berkshire Hathaway. Berkshire Hathaway

 

[unckeyherb]

I remember when Bartles and Jaymes wine coolers were big.  Every single one of these has a shelf life, white claw won't be any different.

There may always be one that is hot but it won't be the same one from even 2 years ago.

Oof my first vomiting-from-drinking was B&J.  Second was Mad Dog 20/20.  I agree, these seltzer’s are a phase.

 

[BassNBrew]

Some stuff for BUD

https://imgur.com/a/d6aekGI

Thank you.  That was an excellent read.  My takeaway is that my "sure double up" can be balled into question.  That said, based on PE, sales, and the other financials, 50% should be reachable.

Just curious, how did you come across this.

 

[BassNBrew]

I'm just holding, but I'm not the least bit worried about a down quarter right now. 

It was better than I expected.

 

[Tool]

Oof my first vomiting-from-drinking was B&J.  Second was Mad Dog 20/20.  I agree, these seltzer’s are a phase.

Too funny. Right there with you on both 

Pretty sure was berry wine coolers and orange mad dog. This was a looong time ago and still remember those details 

 

[NREC34]

Anyone else on the Uranium train????

We have a potentially big time catalyst for US tickers today, the NFWG report. 

UUUU URG UEC ENCUF are the USA ones I’m in. 

Started buying UUUU in the .90s. 

Im in some other Canadian, Africa, AUS companies as well but it’s American that could really fly today. 

 

[Don Hutson]

Two drugs studied in Bay Area could lessen coronavirus deaths, hospitalizations

J.D. Morris April 23, 2020 Updated: April 23, 2020 4 a.m.

https://www.sfchronicle.com/health/article/Two-drugs-studied-in-Bay-Area-could-lessen-15219896.php

Leronlimab has already shown promise in treating some people suffering from COVID-19. The drug was authorized by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration as an emergency investigational new drug, meaning doctors can seek approval to use it on a case-by-case basis. CytoDyn, the drugmaker, has sought to have the drug approved for compassionate use, which would allow it to be prescribed more widely for patients in intensive care units.

Results from the first 36 coronavirus patients who took leronlimab have been broadly promising, said Dr. Jay Lalezari, a San Francisco physician who is CytoDyn’s chief science officer. About 30 more patients have been enrolled in clinical trials that Lalezari hopes will eventually grow to nearly 400 people.

Lalezari said he believes that leronlimab can effectively treat COVID-19.

“I don’t know if this is a double, a triple or a home run,” he told reporters in an interview on Tuesday. Based on his research, he said the drug restores immune balance and lowers the cytokine storm.

One of the patients who has already been treated with the drug is Samantha Mottet, a 55-year-old resident of Seal Beach (Orange County). She fell ill, primarily with exhaustion, shortly after her husband returned from a trip to the East Coast last month. She was eventually admitted to the hospital at UCLA, where she received an organ transplant 14 years ago, after testing positive for the coronavirus.

Her condition worsened in the hospital and she was placed on a ventilator. The first round of drugs Mottet was given did not improve her COVID-19 symptoms. Then, with her husband’s approval, her doctor administered leronlimab.

Mottet told The Chronicle that the drug was her “last hope” — and it worked. Within 24 hours, she needed less oxygen, and she was taken off the ventilator a few days later. She said she has experienced no side effects.

“All I know is I’m just thankful to be here today,” Mottet said. “This drug worked for me and I hope it works for other people.”

Dr. Warner Greene, a senior investigator with the Gladstone Institutes who has been studying the coronavirus, said leronlimab appears to be “more surgical in its effect.” Colchicine, though well known and widely used, “seems like a blunt instrument for the job at hand,” he said.

Greene said leronlimab is a more targeted kind of drug that would be “interfering with a fundamental part of the process that is causing the trouble.”

“Colchicine may be doing that, but it’s having its effect all over the body,” he said. “That said, if it blocked the cytokine storm ... that would be wonderful.”

Doctors studying leronlimab think it could be broadly effective. While CytoDyn would like to use the drug on ICU patients, its greatest benefit will likely be on patients in earlier stages of COVID-19 — hospitalized people with symptoms more severe than mild shortness of breath, said Lalezari of CytoDyn.

Dr. Bruce Patterson, CEO of the San Carlos single-cell diagnostic company IncellDx that has been working on leronlimab, said the drug is exciting because it appears to impact some of the most essential elements of the viral disease, “not just a piece of what COVID is all about.”

“This is the ideal drug to meet everybody’s needs about reopening the country,” Patterson said. “If we had something that we could say we can treat the severe (patients) and we can keep the mild-to-moderates from getting severe, then it becomes the flu. Then we’re not so scared of people getting infected.”

 

[Lacey]

Anyone else on the Uranium train????

We have a potentially big time catalyst for US tickers today, the NFWG report. 

UUUU URG UEC ENCUF are the USA ones I’m in. 

Started buying UUUU in the .90s. 

Im in some other Canadian, Africa, AUS companies as well but it’s American that could really fly today. 

I know nothing about this. What is causing the price to rise and is your thinking there is more room to run?

 

[NREC34]

I know nothing about this. What is causing the price to rise and is your thinking there is more room to run?

Spot price is rapidly increasing due to shutdowns. Last time this sector got bullish like this was mid to late 00’s. Look at the charts to see the potential gains. The experts I follow on Twitter say we are in the first inning right now...

 

[Sinn Fein]

The highest every unemployment rate in the US is 24.9% during the worst year of the Great Depression. From 1932 to 1935 was the worst ever where we were between 20.1% and 24.9%.

Saying that 20% is conservative basically means you think this will be as bad as the Great Depression and honestly, I don't think you understand what that truly means. From 1941 through 2019, there was one year over 10% and that was 10.8%. Acting like it's a foregone conclusion that we'll be in the Great Depression is a bit much.

Mnuchin was clearly pandering to senators to give them incentive to pass the legislation.

update?

 

[Al Czervik]

Anyone else on the Uranium train????

We have a potentially big time catalyst for US tickers today, the NFWG report. 

UUUU URG UEC ENCUF are the USA ones I’m in. 

Started buying UUUU in the .90s. 

Im in some other Canadian, Africa, AUS companies as well but it’s American that could really fly today. 

Lost big on U back when the Japan meltdown happened.  Held some for a while hoping for a rebound, but stories about how contaminated Fukushima was would come out periodically and hammer it down more.

Going to stay away, but good luck.  Hope it works out for you.

 

[beef]

Spot price is rapidly increasing due to shutdowns. Last time this sector got bullish like this was mid to late 00’s. Look at the charts to see the potential gains. The experts I follow on Twitter say we are in the first inning right now...

RE: UUUU, besides uranium, looks like they're getting into rare earths too?  I was looking into rare earth mining companies months ago but never bought anything.     

REMX was what I was watching.  Rare Earth ETF, mostly china companies. 

 

[fantasycurse42]

Getting our good morning unemployment stock buying bump.

This is becoming pretty standard. I closed my shorts on a small loss earlier this week. Had given back almost 15% of my massive gains, closed out only giving back 5%.

The Fed has backstopped the market, wish they would've backstopped America instead, but why bail out the working class when you can give to the uber wealthy and let everyone else feed off of their scraps? Knowing this, I had to adapt. Have a bucket of stocks on autopilot that I'm buying into over an 18 month period, basically an autobuy weekly. No emotion, no thinking, just buying companies for the long haul and DCA, especially since I think we're gonna collapse again in the fall.

Also, my top pick which I've touted for months has absolutely killed it (GOLD).

GLTA

 

[fantasycurse42]

Re: oil

My best friend works at hedge fund for one of the most famous oil traders in the world. Dude is on Bloomberg, CNBC, etc frequently. I used to trade it successfully on his advice. His honest opinion to me is that are much easier ways to make money than oil, I agree with that.

I think a lot of people sticking their hands out are going to find out this lesson the hard way. 

 

[NREC34]

RE: UUUU, besides uranium, looks like they're getting into rare earths too?  I was looking into rare earth mining companies months ago but never bought anything.     

REMX was what I was watching.  Rare Earth ETF, mostly china companies. 

Yup! Rare earth news just the other day...

 

[beef]

Time to buy more.

DFS moved quick this morning.  Tried to get in under 33 and missed.  Added more at 33.50  

 

[cosjobs]

RE: UUUU, besides uranium, looks like they're getting into rare earths too?  I was looking into rare earth mining companies months ago but never bought anything.     

REMX was what I was watching.  Rare Earth ETF, mostly china companies. 

Get Ready!

 

[beef]

Yup! Rare earth news just the other day...

Big day yesterday and after hours may have just put blood in the water for the shorts.  If you got in at .90's, take any of those profits or are you still running? 

 

[NREC34]

Big day yesterday and after hours may have just put blood in the water for the shorts.  If you got in at .90's, take any of those profits or are you still running? 

I sold some at 1.80 yesterday but still have 5700 shares. I think it probably goes way higher when the report gets released today   but who knows. 

 

[BassNBrew]

Getting our good morning unemployment stock buying bump.

This is becoming pretty standard. I closed my shorts on a small loss earlier this week. Had given back almost 15% of my massive gains, closed out only giving back 5%.

The Fed has backstopped the market, wish they would've backstopped America instead, but why bail out the working class when you can give to the uber wealthy and let everyone else feed off of their scraps? Knowing this, I had to adapt. Have a bucket of stocks on autopilot that I'm buying into over an 18 month period, basically an autobuy weekly. No emotion, no thinking, just buying companies for the long haul and DCA, especially since I think we're gonna collapse again in the fall.

Also, my top pick which I've touted for months has absolutely killed it (GOLD).

GLTA

Surprised you are turning bullish.

What more did you want the Fed to do for the working class?  We pretty have BIG for the next two months with most people qualifying for roughly $1000 a week.