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July 1 could be a bloodbath, employment wise. Many companies, like mine, will have used up their PPP money and will be laying off staff again. 
I suppose this is why you don't see a greater reaction. I mean that, and the fact stocks ran up into it. Obviously some folks were smarter than I. Hopefully this means a smaller hole to dig us out of. But funny how we've shifted folks from unemployment to 'temporary' stimulus. I suppose we shouldn't bet against the government spending money in an election year but funny how good things are, yet we need more stimulus. 

 
Unemployment now 13.3% and dropping. 

If we do not have a true second wave......we are going to recover faster than we all think. Which would be fantastic. 
This is where I'm the most confused. Why isn't a second wave coming? Are we magically going to wish it away? Is our behavior that much smarter (it isn't) than it was 6 months ago? Are we more prepared (maybe a little, but nothing drastic)?

This is why I hate all people, we're a big group of hypocrites and nothing matters beyond the almighty dollar. There will be another wave, it will kill a bunch of people... Here's the rub; we're going to keep chugging along, not locking anything down, life will go on, people will die. Sadly, no lives matter, especially to Wall Street, just the magical greenback. 

 
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I'm bullish--but I'm also disciplined.  The higher the market goes--the more it is pricing in perfection--buying an insurance policy at a discounted rate to back your investments is not a bad move.  Even as a bull-- I firmly believe that risk goes up as the markets go up--so I don't blame you for making this move. 
On the huge up days, my performance lags a little, on the down days I'm always ahead. When the market just drifts higher, I'm about inline with market performance. It's my comfort zone, I'll miss out on some, but I'm perfectly hedged and very comfortable. 

 
This is where I'm the most confused. Why isn't a second wave coming? Are we magically going to wish it away? Is our behavior that much smarter (it isn't) than it was 6 months ago? Are we more prepared (maybe a little, but nothing drastic)?

This is why I hate all people, we're a big group of hypocrites and nothing matters beyond the almighty dollar. There will be another wave, it will kill a bunch of people... Here's the rub; we're going to keep chugging along, not locking anything down, life will go on, people will die. Sadly, no lives matter, just the magical greenback. 
There has been some thinking that the virus is mutating to a weaker, less deadly version. The Spanish Flu, although it did have a second wave,  is thought to have faded away in much the same way in 1919. 

 
This rally gives me a lot of hope and high expectations for some ridiculous new highs when we're all clear of Covid and the economic indicated balance back out.  

 
Wasn't the second wave far more deadly?


On wiki is said there was an unusual reason the more deadly version became more prevalent.  There was a war going on and when soldiers got sick in the trenches, the ones who were only a little sick stayed in the trenches.  The ones who were very ill went to the hospitals and then spread that form of the virus on a wide scale.  Who knows what a second wave of this will be like, but at least we don't have that going on.

 
How exactly is that political?

It does on the other hand have a huge deal to do with what lies ahead and very important to determine where the economy as well as the market are going?
The coronavirus is still driving this market. I know a lot in here like to play in bankrupt penny stocks but you want to know what would crush this rally? A 2nd wave in two weeks from the protests. So quite frankly, I appreciate the discussion, especially from folks who have clearly done more research on coronavirus than I have. 

At the very least, it beats pages full of CYDY. I know a lot of folks are heavily invested in that but I've never said anything about literally any article that mentions it being posted. Like a normal person, I just move past it. 

 
This rally gives me a lot of hope and high expectations for some ridiculous new highs when we're all clear of Covid and the economic indicated balance back out.  
The market should absolutely be insanely higher post- covid if our economy even shows decent signs of life.  The amount of money that was printed and injected into the economy basically guarantees that.   The dollar will be worth less than it was before covid--so if that doesn't happen---that would be very problematic.  

 
Now up to 35% cash.  Not sure if I want to buy more Amazon as a hedge as I'm at 15% allocation on it.  Added a little GOLD and DKNG.  Just not sure what else to do after a big selling sure this morning.

 
I refuse to watch this guy, he's the worst.

@chet can you have the board bring in a rockstar? With a drug that has so much potential, we need better leadership.
I am a couple minutes in, and he's already said Dr. P's paper is published and referred to Dr. P as our scientist.  smh

 
The coronavirus is still driving this market. I know a lot in here like to play in bankrupt penny stocks but you want to know what would crush this rally? A 2nd wave in two weeks from the protests. So quite frankly, I appreciate the discussion, especially from folks who have clearly done more research on coronavirus than I have. 

At the very least, it beats pages full of CYDY. I know a lot of folks are heavily invested in that but I've never said anything about literally any article that mentions it being posted. Like a normal person, I just move past it. 
There isn't going to be a real 2nd wave in 2 weeks, that much I can say with a fairly high amount of certainty. If it comes, it will be in the fall, so a good chance the good times will roll until August, when participants will probably take a more cautious tone.

What can be derived from the protests on CV19 side, and the data I'm watching is to see what type of upticks we have in areas of heavy protest (think NYC, Minneapolis, etc,). Those I will be using as indicators for when fall rolls around. 

 
I'm new to individual stock trading and no-doubt playing small ball compared to the rest of you but I'm up on BLM, JPM (in at ~87), DFS, and of course CYDY.

Thanks again to @Todem and the rest of you guys for the discussions - great thread!
Agreed, @Todem pretty work on the list you put together in the panic. I wish I jumped in heavier but did double my money on BA thanks to you. Also still holding some CYDY, thanks again to @chet  

 
This sounds like the kind of show that will find lend credibility. Now he just needs to line up some appearances on StockXPLODE! and we're set.
:lmao:

I truly don't get it! I mean, he has to be a smart guy to have gotten where he has... How does he not understand this isn't good publicity? All he needs is the whacky inflatable arm guy behind him at this point.

My honest feelings are this stock would be in $4-$5 range without all of these dumb interviews with Wall Street Super Stocks and Penny Stock Billionaire.

 
:lmao:

I truly don't get it! I mean, he has to be a smart guy to have gotten where he has... How does he not understand this isn't good publicity? All he needs is the whacky inflatable arm guy behind him at this point.

My honest feelings are this stock would be in $4-$5 range without all of these dumb interviews with Wall Street Super Stocks and Penny Stock Billionaire.
The science will win; it just may take more time with NP at the helm.

 
I know this is oft repeated but I feel like, at the very least, it needs to be expounded upon. I feel like this statement can be broken up into two pieces. One, the stock market doesn't equal the economy in the sense that small businesses and startups aren't represented in it. In the simple example, as local restaurants close, Olive Garden can benefit from it. But that just means a shift in market share, in what would seemingly be a smaller pie. But that doesn't seem to be enough to justify the current moves. 

The other side, which my mind always goes to, is that the stock market can dislocate from the economy. This can be due to technicals, like the Fed pumping the system full of cash as well as the forward looking nature of the stock market. I'm sure there are many other reasons. 

I suppose it's impossible to ascribe how much is do to the former or the latter. But the latter is transitory. Obviously, it can last a while but eventually fundamentals catch up with the markets (unless we're in a new paradigm with the Fed). So while I don't doubt the market will get a bigger pie of the economy, the question remains, how much did that pie shrink and will the out-sized gains offset the shrunken pie? 
Good points although the one I most often think about is the forward looking time value of the market. The thing that I see people get wrong a lot, including in this thread, is that time portion. Stocks are generally valued as future cash flows. So although the present state of those cash flows comprises a portion of the stock value, maybe even the largest portion, the future matters as well, especially for long investors. 

The example I used to explain to a friend:

An investor valued stock ABC at $100/share in January. He calculates the present value of anticipated cash flows for the next 5 years and based on that analysis, he comes to $100. 

Now we have the crash and he re-evaluates ABC at the beginning of March. He lowers his 2020 estimate to 35%, the 2021 estimate to 70% and the 2022 estimate to 95%. The 2023 and 2024 estimates stay at 100%. When he re-calculates the value of a ABC share he gets $66. Now he checks the market and ABC is trading at $45. So he buys a bunch of ABC stock because he's long on it and even though he knows the next two years will be rough, he is getting a great discount on ABC based on his valuation of the next 5 years. That's how the market goes up even when the present economy sucks. 

I'm sure all the things you mentioned happen, especially chasing the FED. But I think there are a lot of longer investors and fund managers that can look ahead like that and manage dealing with short term disappointment for longer term victories. 

 
This summer looks like a long slow boil of virus and deaths. Anyone who saw the curves on Rachel Maddow last night would be alarmed. Lots of heads in lots of sand. But a true "second wave" would not hit until more like October or November most likely. By then we will have a vaccine (not saying it will be effective but many people will say many strong things about this tremendous new vaccine which just happens to hit in October, before the election).  I assumed the markets would be volatile all summer as the news ebbs and flows, and maybe they will be, but right now the volatility is more like a match to tinder as it just burns quick and hot. As you can tell from my metaphor, I also think it burns out quickly but I've proven myself to be a horrible predictor in 2020.

 
$FOUR going to open up at $30. I wish I was important enough to have been allocated shares.

ETA: That's as of now, could change.

 
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This summer looks like a long slow boil of virus and deaths. Anyone who saw the curves on Rachel Maddow last night would be alarmed. Lots of heads in lots of sand. But a true "second wave" would not hit until more like October or November most likely. By then we will have a vaccine (not saying it will be effective but many people will say many strong things about this tremendous new vaccine which just happens to hit in October, before the election).  I assumed the markets would be volatile all summer as the news ebbs and flows, and maybe they will be, but right now the volatility is more like a match to tinder as it just burns quick and hot. As you can tell from my metaphor, I also think it burns out quickly but I've proven myself to be a horrible predictor in 2020.
I wasn't aware she had curves anymore. 

 
needanap said:
Purchased shares of BETZ, the new sports betting and online casino ETF by Roundhill, at $16.01.  NERD, the esports ETF by Roundhill has been around for a year and has done fairly well, so figured I would give it a go.  
Really glad you mentioned this ETF starting up yesterday.  I had a bit of DKNG and wanted to take some of those profits and spread it out a bit to other gambling stocks to go long on. 

 
On the huge up days, my performance lags a little, on the down days I'm always ahead. When the market just drifts higher, I'm about inline with market performance. It's my comfort zone, I'll miss out on some, but I'm perfectly hedged and very comfortable. 
That's what matters. 

This is where I'm the most confused. Why isn't a second wave coming? Are we magically going to wish it away? Is our behavior that much smarter (it isn't) than it was 6 months ago? Are we more prepared (maybe a little, but nothing drastic)?

This is why I hate all people, we're a big group of hypocrites and nothing matters beyond the almighty dollar. There will be another wave, it will kill a bunch of people... Here's the rub; we're going to keep chugging along, not locking anything down, life will go on, people will die. Sadly, no lives matter, especially to Wall Street, just the magical greenback. 
I get your concerns and feelings here. 

Otoh, people die everyday. We don't stop driving because people die in cars, people keep flying, athletes play games which have shown to cause brain damage. We accept certain risks.

Maybe we're accepting too much here, that's debatable. But people have to work and we're naturally social animals. There's a trade-off. Where that line is, I don't know.

When the market moves above the 61.8% retracement off the previous low, the market has NEVER traded below the 50% retracement (SPX 2811).
That seems like, really specific.

 
Fibonacci ratios
:nerd: ;)

Interesting stuff, I'm not sure how much stock to put in it.

Those traders who make profits using Fibonacci retracement verify its effectiveness. At the same time, those who lose money say it is unreliable. Others argue that technical analysis is a case of a self-fulfilling prophecy

Thanks again everyone for the great tips.  It's been a great year in the stock market.  Personally my best ever.
Excellent.

I'm still down overall but that could change soon with days like today. (Fwiw, I'd be up if I hadn't bought and held TZA too long)

 
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So far have sold 1/3 of BLMN, all my QQQ, and will unload a couple mutual fund holdovers from pre-CV tonight.

Holding on MRO and TAP

 

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