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16 minutes ago, cosjobs said:

I've done very few  options and this was by far the most I've spent on one. 10 contracts at 4.90. Already pushing $6 today.

PUT (DIS) DISNEY WALT CO SEP 18 20 $105

I’m too deep in MGM and PENN puts but REALLY wanted to short the crap out of Cruise stocks and Disney. Good on ya. 

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, CR69 said:

I’m too deep in MGM and PENN puts but REALLY wanted to short the crap out of Cruise stocks and Disney. Good on ya. 

I just went green on my cruise shorts. Still under water on my airline shorts. They weren't as big as my PENN short, which at this point is driving my account. 

ETA: Also missed BA. That probably still has some room to fall. That's been another reopen trade. If it's customers of its non-defense business are in trouble, then BA will struggle. That thing could probably trade down to $125/$150 again. 

Edited by sporthenry
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19 minutes ago, -OZ- said:

My only regret on this front right now is setting my Roth IRA and my wife's Roth IRA to not be the trading accounts. 

But that has a lot more to do with purpose than tax planning.

My only regret is not getting in on CYDY early @chet advised 

 

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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, CR69 said:

I’m too deep in MGM and PENN puts but REALLY wanted to short the crap out of Cruise stocks and Disney. Good on ya. 

I have  DIS, AAL, MAR, DKNG, HAL & MRO puts

I will be adding a cruise line soon. Will also look hard at MGM. 

Edited by cosjobs
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1 minute ago, JetMaxx said:

My only regret is not getting in on CYDY early @chet advised 

 

I was just thinking to myself how much I would have if I called Vanguard the first time I tried to buy and they wouldn’t let me when it was at $.35 or whatever it was instead of $1.30 which called and got approval for which I am still very grateful for this awesome lead. I got in for a couple thousand shares, wish I had bigger stones. As this plays out I want to hear some of the stories of what the guys are buying that went big. If Chet wasn’t retired before he sure can now. 

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23 minutes ago, CGRdrJoe said:

So anything above 105 would be profit?

 

20 minutes ago, eaganwildcats said:

*Below. Put means he has the right to sell at $105. Given he paid $4.90 break-even would be ~100 bucks.

 It’s a common misconception that for this put to be worthwhile, the stock price has to drop below 105. That would be the case in September, but the value of the put goes up when the stock goes down as it did today and likely tomorrow. As the original poster mentioned, the value of the put has increased over 20% already. The value comes from the time that is still left on the put, and in the stock moving in the right direction preferably very quickly. Nice play on DIS. Might be a good time to sell it on Thursday. 

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9 minutes ago, cosjobs said:

I have  DIS, AAL, MAR, DKNG, HAL & MRO puts

I will be adding a cruise line soon. Will also look hard at MGM. 

I’ve been eyeing NVAX puts. It went from 5 to 70 too quickly and could crash if their vaccine fails.

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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, cosjobs said:

I have  DIS, AAL, MAR, DKNG, HAL & MRO puts

I will be adding a cruise line soon. Will also look hard at MGM. 

I’d probably look close at PENN than MGM. It’s not that far off its 52WH and was pumped way higher than it should have been by Portnoy. I think it’s got the potential for a larger % drop than MGM. 

I was targeting $12 on MGM and $20ish on PENN.  Figuring out when to sell my puts is going to be the hard part. 

Edited by CR69
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5 minutes ago, pecorino said:

 

 It’s a common misconception that for this put to be worthwhile, the stock price has to drop below 105. That would be the case in September, but the value of the put goes up when the stock goes down as it did today and likely tomorrow. As the original poster mentioned, the value of the put has increased over 20% already. The value comes from the time that is still left on the put, and in the stock moving in the right direction preferably very quickly. Nice play on DIS. Might be a good time to sell it on Thursday. 

:thumbup: Thanks for the extra clarity. Before long we'll be talking the greeks. 

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13 minutes ago, eaganwildcats said:

:thumbup: Thanks for the extra clarity. Before long we'll be talking the greeks. 

Theta boy

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Unless I get talked off the ledge probably going to open a position in Drive Shack $DS Friday. It's been hovering around $1.90ish for awhile. Not a big golfer, but used to live in Raleigh and the place they opened there is always packed.  Random Twitter thread. Perhaps a dip on Friday due to getting dropped from the Russell 3K

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12 minutes ago, cosjobs said:

I have  DIS, AAL, MAR, DKNG, HAL & MRO puts

I will be adding a cruise line soon. Will also look hard at MGM. 

 

1 minute ago, CR69 said:

I’d probably look close at PENN than MGM. It’s not that far off its 52WH and was pumped way higher than it should have been by Portnoy. I think it’s got the potential for a larger % drop than MGM. 

I was targeting $12 on MGM and $20ish on PENN.  Figuring out when to sell my puts is going to be the hard part. 

That and you pretty much get to combine the short on MGM and DKNG. It isn't as 'expensive' as DKNG since it was actually a business beforehand. But it's also not a pureplay sports betting company. DKNG is asset lite and could just get a cult like following like a TSLA where it takes years for a short thesis to materialize. I know some PENN backers try to do a SoTP using DKNG valuation on PENN's sportsbook business although they don't even have one yet.

Regional could bounce back quicker than Vegas so I get the short on MGM but MGM is still down 40%+ from highs. PENN is down just 10% and that is off elevated levels from the Barstool acquisition. With uptick in COVID around the country, has to hurt the regional folks as well. And the big thing is PENN barely owns any of its properties. Lease payments are essentially a form of debt. MGM has a REIT structure but owns 50%+ of it so they can monetize that stake and are structurally aligned. 

I just hate the sale-leaseback structure. I think sports betting is overvalued along with Barstool. They won't run out of cash after raising cash via equity/converts. Know this run-up caught most off-guard but they raised equity in May at $18, so shows you how much confidence they had. And they had to sell the one property they owned to their landlord for rent forgiveness. That isn't the action of a company that should be trading at ATH. 

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13 minutes ago, eaganwildcats said:

Unless I get talked off the ledge probably going to open a position in Drive Shack $DS Friday. It's been hovering around $1.90ish for awhile. Not a big golfer, but used to live in Raleigh and the place they opened there is always packed.  Random Twitter thread. Perhaps a dip on Friday due to getting dropped from the Russell 3K

Thanks for sharing. Nice thread. Haven’t looked at it further but my I’d be interested in their their cash/debt positions. 

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46 minutes ago, eaganwildcats said:

Unless I get talked off the ledge probably going to open a position in Drive Shack $DS Friday. It's been hovering around $1.90ish for awhile. Not a big golfer, but used to live in Raleigh and the place they opened there is always packed.  Random Twitter thread. Perhaps a dip on Friday due to getting dropped from the Russell 3K

Whoa. The lack of good tech in the urban Top Golf location here in Charlotte was big feedback I have when I went there. This is an interesting idea.

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3 minutes ago, Slapdash said:

Whoa. The lack of good tech in the urban Top Golf location here in Charlotte was big feedback I have when I went there. This is an interesting idea.

Love top golf (not a golfer though) but wonder how much CV would affect things for this type of business and for how long. 
 

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Posted (edited)

I was in on DKNG at $18.00 sold early.

I was in on CYDY at $3.14 sold early.

 

It seems the only stocks I'm patient on are the losers. I take the gains on the winners too soon. But then you take 1 downswing in excess of your winner and it's gone immediately.

I could be a made man if I just hit it and quit it.

 

Any tips or will this be a pavlovian learned behavior going forward?

Edited by Breezy H2O

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14 minutes ago, Breezy H2O said:

I was in on DKNG at $18.00 sold early.

I was in on CYDY at $3.14 sold early.

 

It seems the only stocks I'm patient on are the losers. I take the gains on the winners too soon. But then you take 1 downswing in excess of your winner and it's gone immediately.

I could be a made man if I just hit it and quit it.

 

Any tips or will this be a pavlovian learned behavior going forward?

If it’s a good stock you can always buy back. Speaking from experience, don’t be stubborn and compound a mistake 

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Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, cosjobs said:

I have  DIS, AAL, MAR, DKNG, HAL & MRO puts

I will be adding a cruise line soon. Will also look hard at MGM. 

I know little about cruise companies other than to hide the bottle of booze really well when you board. Which is best in class in case I want to join you? In this space, I’m going to put the premium on quality.

oh, sorry, you’re looking to buy a put, I misunderstood your post. I’m thinking about establishing a position soon.

Edited by pecorino
I can’t read

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I am going to look at buying some married puts to my BA position as a hedge. I am long BA.....but this can start getting very volatile again here in the short term. I need to see the premiums and how cheap the insurance can be and does it make sense and how long or short on the expiration side I want to go (longer you go the higher the premium).

 

I have been out of CCL and MGM for a while. Looks ike we may be able to hop back in at some point (not there yet) to trade them again. 

 

Stay tuned.

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So are we buying more CYDY this morning? Thinking about adding some more shares which I should have just done yesterday morning 🤦‍♂️

FOMO is real lol. 

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8 hours ago, CR69 said:

Love top golf (not a golfer though) but wonder how much CV would affect things for this type of business and for how long. 
 

They have like 60 golf courses (unfortunately in Cali so IDK how the recent spikes are impacting) but management is on the record that demand is way up there. I'd think that the Drive Shacks would be pretty appealing to folks wanting to get out but also maintain some social distance. I'm on the fence about the Urban mini-golf concept, but worth a shot. Note they don't own the golf courses - they sold most of the ones they owned outright last year & year before to raise capital to build the actual Drive Shacks. Someone asked about cash flow - read that they are burning about 1.5M a month and have I think somewhere around 14 on hand so assuming we aren't locked down for another year I think should be okay. Had a PPP loan but paid it back almost immediately - not sure if it was because they didn't want to deal with the terms at the time or were worried about PR backlash. 

Classic caveat that anything I am investing in isn't a.... "core holding" - would be more of a swing for the fence - I think this could be a billion+ market cap in a few years - which is ~10x. So not @chet level gainz, but has quite a bit of upside (with the associated downside, naturally). 

 

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58 minutes ago, Todem said:

I am going to look at buying some married puts to my BA position as a hedge. I am long BA.....but this can start getting very volatile again here in the short term. I need to see the premiums and how cheap the insurance can be and does it make sense and how long or short on the expiration side I want to go (longer you go the higher the premium).

 

I have been out of CCL and MGM for a while. Looks ike we may be able to hop back in at some point (not there yet) to trade them again. 

 

Stay tuned.

Without even looking at the price, I assume these puts are going to be so rich that it doesn’t make sense to insure your position in Boeing. Just a hunch as I have been selling covered calls on my position and I am impressed with how much premium I’m getting out of them.

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Anyone else considering pulling anything out of the market?  Seems like the rise in cases is real which could lead to further lockdowns... even with the historic run for tech stocks, that would seem to benefit them once again.  We’ve already seen a nice drop in restaurants, travel, etc over the last week or so, but given the March lows we still could have ways to go.

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1 hour ago, pecorino said:

I know little about cruise companies other than to hide the bottle of booze really well when you board. Which is best in class in case I want to join you? In this space, I’m going to put the premium on quality.

oh, sorry, you’re looking to buy a put, I misunderstood your post. I’m thinking about establishing a position soon.

The last cruise line I would short is NCL if that helps.

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20 hours ago, jvdesigns2002 said:

I've said this a few times--maybe you've blocked/ignored me so you don't see my posts--but Bloomin brands is heavily exposed in states where the virus is exploding.  I even posted a map of it.  If you look at the number of locations they have in Florida for example--it's substantial.  

Right but even with that news it was up like 8% a couple days ago then right back down like 10% the next day.

Also, even with spikes the restaurants are still going to do takeout right?  

Kills the alcohol money I guess. 

Retail is gonna continue to get killed.  Covid spikes and more and more people with less money.  Stonks will probably still go up soon though.

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Posted (edited)

CTRM taking off at RH.  Went from 3200 holders to 15,000 this morning.  Castor Maritime Inc. 4.2M cap.  Stock has been holding in this 0.40-0.60 range since March.  Announced an $18M public offering a couple of days ago.  

Edited by beef
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31 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

Right but even with that news it was up like 8% a couple days ago then right back down like 10% the next day.

Also, even with spikes the restaurants are still going to do takeout right?  

Kills the alcohol money I guess. 

Retail is gonna continue to get killed.  Covid spikes and more and more people with less money.  Stonks will probably still go up soon though.

I'm just trying to decide whether to stick with the defensive stocks like Kroger, to sell everything and go all in on CYDY, still everything and sit on cash, or just ignore everything.

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40 minutes ago, Lacey said:

Anyone else considering pulling anything out of the market?  Seems like the rise in cases is real which could lead to further lockdowns... even with the historic run for tech stocks, that would seem to benefit them once again.  We’ve already seen a nice drop in restaurants, travel, etc over the last week or so, but given the March lows we still could have ways to go.

Anything? Yeah, but not the core accounts.

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9 hours ago, CR69 said:

Love top golf (not a golfer though) but wonder how much CV would affect things for this type of business and for how long. 
 

I bought shares of Callaway (ELY) a few years ago because i learned they're a significant investor in Top Golf.  $ELY has been treading water in the 14-16 range, but they're up 3x since the March lows.

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Even though I sold and bought back in, missing a good chunk of profits, it feels so good to no longer have CYDY FOMO. I'm back in the group hug! :hifive:

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15 hours ago, CGRdrJoe said:

I do have a small issue with the current run up since last Friday. I’ve been celebrating after the big days and have been hungover all week. I have a monthly CG golf tourney tomorrow, gonna be one hungover SOB as I can’t change routine now :banned: 

Update?

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1 minute ago, Bluto Blutarsky said:

Update?

Hurting, saw the price this morning smiled then realized what it means for tonight :wall:  can’t wait for hair of the dog at 930 when I hit the ramge

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Headline from 10/15/2020:

And in other news, pre revenue startup Cytodyn has grown by 17,000% this year to become the world's most valuable pharmaceutical company. 

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There was one minute of profit taking and then #### that

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Posted (edited)

Shame everything else I own taking a beating these last two days. Only JPM and NVDA in the green.

Edit*** NVDA is red too.

Edited by fantasycurse42

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33 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

Right but even with that news it was up like 8% a couple days ago then right back down like 10% the next day.

Also, even with spikes the restaurants are still going to do takeout right?  

Kills the alcohol money I guess. 

Retail is gonna continue to get killed.  Covid spikes and more and more people with less money.  Stonks will probably still go up soon though.

Restaurants in general are very low margin businesses that depend on capacity and volume to be profitable.  If the states where they are impose capacity limitations--- they will lose money.  If a couple employees at any of their locations gets sick---you could see that restaurant getting shut down four a couple of weeks for sanitation and testing protocols.    Also-when you look at Florida, Texas, and California---you are looking at many of these restaurants being in tourist areas.  When the virus is exploding in those areas (for example--the locations near disney world and Disneyland)--that will effect their bottom line.   Regardless--I do think that the stock will probably bounce back up to the point where the members here that own it will turn a profit----but its a risky stock. 

I agree--stocks will probably go up long term and I'm still bullish long term---but I'd say that there are a few sectors that will probably bounce around a bit. Like you said retail, hospitality, casinos, travel, and stocks for restaurants that require full dining rooms to be profitable, and commercial real estate will probably have a bit more volatility. 

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Gold (the nugget) prob heading back to 1700 after it's latest 1800 rejection :kicksrock:

I'm buying the futures at 1695. 

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7 minutes ago, Harris said:

Even though I sold and bought back in, missing a good chunk of profits, it feels so good to no longer have CYDY FOMO. I'm back in the group hug! :hifive:

:hifive:

It's only ⅓ of my trading account, but it's keeping the whole account positive for the week.  

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3 minutes ago, ex-ghost said:

5.44

Hot damn. That FSLY (sorry @cosjobs it’s got a ton of momentum) and a few others green. Hard to tell how far I’m down since Yahoo is always 15 minutes behind on OTC prices. It’s at least a nice spot to have all 3 of my accounts in one view and a big watch list.

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17 hours ago, chet said:

More than likely is an institutional buyer building a position or big pharma planning a takeover.

Have to be close to getting to a disclosure here. 

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