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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, cosjobs said:

Whew. Order filling. Added a cool $35 on a $50,000 typo

of course, had I made this mistake on CYDY I'd be up  $14000

Edited by cosjobs
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2 minutes ago, Maik Jeaunz said:

probably not enough for blow, but maybe enough for a bad hooker.

pics?

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I've heard Nader say both end of month and middle of July, so I'm not sure on timing.

I thought mild to moderate was expected to close Ph II trial June 17 @ 85 or so enrollees. 2 weeks from the last enrollee to get data from all the enrollees. Then time to analyze it says mid-july to me.

"Ph II and Ph III trial data to be released around the same time, end of month" from a youtube video 6/15. So :shrug:

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2427 of CYDY average purchase $2.07

Just about to crack 15k profit. 
 

I’m rich #####.  😁

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

"Ph II and Ph III trial data to be released around the same time, end of month" from a youtube video 6/15. So :shrug:

Notice how he cleverly did not say end of which month?

Edited by cosjobs

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16 minutes ago, cosjobs said:

Whew. Order filling. Added a cool $35 on a $50,000 typo

Actually, if I did that 10x a day, in a week I'd be... dead from stress.

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2 minutes ago, Sandeman said:

Leronlimab PDUFA date is July 10

What I don't know is whether this is the date in which the date is set, or if there will be some other finding. 

So that is just to set the PDUFA date. I don't think that is as important as the preliminary data will be. Obviously, if the FDA accepts the accelerated review, that would be a positive sign (and vice versa if they don't). But think the data, assuming it's released before then, will move the stock much more. 

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Posted (edited)

Here are some upcoming dates.  CYDY announced that they were ending the Mild-moderate trial on June 15.  It was overenrolled and there are 85-90 patients.  Since it has a 14-day endpoint, today (June 29) is the last day to collect patient samples.  Those will be analyzed, data will be compiled and a package will be sent to the FDA--my guess is around the middle of July.   Who knows how long the FDA will take .

They are also submitting interim data on 51-patients on a similar timeframe.

Someone asked about the Dr. Patterson's paper.  It's being peer reviewed.  Again, who knows how long.

Edited by chet
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bored again.

100 contracts:

PUT (CZR) CAESARS ENTMT CORP JUL 17 20 $11 

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2 minutes ago, cosjobs said:

bored again.

100 contracts:

PUT (CZR) CAESARS ENTMT CORP JUL 17 20 $11 

Make sure you don't fat finger your options orders.  That can get very expensive very quickly.

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I remember thinking I was late to the party when I bought into CYDY at $3,  but I later sold at $4.

Now I'm in the same boat.   Too late to the party or still just getting started?

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11 minutes ago, chet said:

Here are some upcoming dates.  CYDY announced that they were ending the Mild-moderate trial on June 15.  It was overenrolled and there are 85-90 patients.  Since it has a 14-day endpoint, today (June 29) is the last day to collect patient samples.  Those will be analyzed, data will be compiled and a package will be sent to the FDA--my guess is around the middle of July.   Who knows how long the FDA will take .

They are also submitting interim data on 51-patients on a similar timeframe.

Someone asked about the Dr. Patterson's paper.  It's being peer reviewed.  Again, who knows how long.

Yah, I little longer than I hypothesized.  Do you know if it is common practice to share the trial results sent to the FDA publicly prior to the FDA evaluating?

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4 hours ago, sporthenry said:

I may or may not have done that. I was buying some things so figured I'd throw a few hundred bucks to start a position. That may be the other issue with this is liquidity. Only way to get a position may push the stock past $0.50. I'm still working on finishing up my model so will send it to you once I'm done. Hopefully today. I don't think it will move as quickly away from us as some of these other names. Just earnings will be massively important. 

Looks like earnings on 7/9. I'm probably riding out my shares unless you have some sweet analysis before then and I can scoop some more. 

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1 hour ago, Charlie Harper said:

Being in here is a practice of the lesson....never count another man's money.

Truly happy for everyone when you become multimillionaires because at least I'll have a 10s of thousands I didn't have before.

My thoughts exactly.

I'm not going to change my investing chasing after a single stock at more than X% of my total portfolio, but congrats to those who did (or otherwise have more confidence in their ability to pick winners). It's good to see y'all make it big.

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16 minutes ago, Teef said:

I remember thinking I was late to the party when I bought into CYDY at $3,  but I later sold at $4.

Now I'm in the same boat.   Too late to the party or still just getting started?

I’m a toe dipper in at 4.94. Love the increase but is there still room to dive in???

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This is probably obvious and I'm just not seeing it, but for those using the Fidelity app, how do you see total return including past sales? 

I think I'm up ~50% in June. Can't complain about that. (Obviously going all in on CYDY would have been better)

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3 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

Just added LCA...the latest high profile SPAC.

Did we already miss the boat?  Looks like they announced they bought Golden Nugget and will be GNOG. 

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3 minutes ago, JetMaxx said:

I’m a toe dipper in at 4.94. Love the increase but is there still room to dive in???

I thought the exact same thing my last two buy ins at 7.60 and 6.30. It's turned out all right.

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30 minutes ago, chet said:

Here are some upcoming dates.  CYDY announced that they were ending the Mild-moderate trial on June 15.  It was overenrolled and there are 85-90 patients.  Since it has a 14-day endpoint, today (June 29) is the last day to collect patient samples.  Those will be analyzed, data will be compiled and a package will be sent to the FDA--my guess is around the middle of July.   Who knows how long the FDA will take .

They are also submitting interim data on 51-patients on a similar timeframe.

Someone asked about the Dr. Patterson's paper.  It's being peer reviewed.  Again, who knows how long.

Wonder if timing of the publication of the paper will be tied in with the July data set sent to the FDA as a proof of concept to support the paper's conclusion.

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Just now, Moonlight said:

Wonder if timing of the publication of the paper will be tied in with the July data set sent to the FDA as a proof of concept to support the paper's conclusion.

I don't have the impression they have any control over the timing of the peer review process. It just kind of is whatever it ends up being.

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So can we have a serious semi non shtick conversation about what this company is worth with 1. A successful second trial and 2. A FDA approval?

its a 4B company right now based on reasonable (we hope) speculation.  
 

If everything we have read comes to fruition and we get a successful announcement on the data trials 10-15B?

if then we get a FDA approval and trump puts it in a speech?  30-40B? 
 

I know we were kidding about the millionaire number but I want to be realistic here

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9 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

Just added LCA...the latest high profile SPAC.

Following you on this one.  Very small position, but it looks like this is just coming on the Robinhood radar screens.

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53 minutes ago, Maik Jeaunz said:

probably not enough for blow, but maybe enough for a bad hooker.

A/S/L/PICS?

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34 minutes ago, chet said:

Make sure you don't fat finger your options orders.  That can get very expensive very quickly.

Wow, good catch. I saw the post and assumed it was one or two contracts. 100 contracts does not sound right unless he just cashed in his epic CYDY profit and is going for the jugular.

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10 minutes ago, djmich said:

Yah, I little longer than I hypothesized.  Do you know if it is common practice to share the trial results sent to the FDA publicly prior to the FDA evaluating?

Yes. Usually the company announced the results of its various trials and the outcome (met or did not meet the primary endpoint) upon which they send it to the FDA if it met the endpoint. Given the time sensitivity of all this, COVID drugs are likely to be on warp speed throughout the whole process and I don't know enough about the intricacies. 

But for instance, Remdesevir is not approved by the FDA. They officially announced results on phase 3 trial on June 1 but if you remember, Stat leaked info from Chicago study on April 16th but they didn't announce final results until June 1st. There was the NIAID study in between (which I believe was separate from the Chicago data). Regardless, this stuff can and will leak. The optimist (market cynic) in me thinks folks at these hospitals must be talking and it's getting into the market. Otherwise, we're all gambling here. I just didn't know if there was a PDUFA date or something from the FDA. The company can announce their results whenever they want really and release whatever they want. That is why folks accused GILD or MRNA of selectively releasing data. So if the data is in between, the company will likely just release the positive stuff. That is where we need folks smarter than me to tell us what it means. So there is a chance where it is proven effective but it's not a cure-all (i.e. remdesevir) in which case, the stock could go either way. 

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2 minutes ago, The Ref said:

So can we have a serious semi non shtick conversation about what this company is worth with 1. A successful second trial and 2. A FDA approval?

its a 4B company right now based on reasonable (we hope) speculation.  
 

If everything we have read comes to fruition and we get a successful announcement on the data trials 10-15B?

if then we get a FDA approval and trump puts it in a speech?  30-40B? 
 

I know we were kidding about the millionaire number but I want to be realistic here

Gilead's market cap increased by ~15BB after Stat News released a story about a video showing Chicago area doctors and nurses casually discussing redeliver and saying that they thought it worked.  That was after the close and after market trading.  Someone thought that a rumor that the drug was effective was worth $15BB.

For CYDY, $15BB translates to ~$22 / share (you have to assume the fully diluted share count is close to 700MM because their warrants are so deep in the money).

Another way to approach it is from revenue assumptions.  CYDY will have 1.5MM vials of drug delivered in 2020.  That's 750K doses and at $1200/dose, that's $900MM in revenue before royalties or distribution.  In 2021, they've ordered 5MM vials which is worth $3BB in revenue.  Small pharma often trades at 10x revenue.

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6 minutes ago, chet said:

Gilead's market cap increased by ~15BB after Stat News released a story about a video showing Chicago area doctors and nurses casually discussing redeliver and saying that they thought it worked.  That was after the close and after market trading.  Someone thought that a rumor that the drug was effective was worth $15BB.

For CYDY, $15BB translates to ~$22 / share (you have to assume the fully diluted share count is close to 700MM because their warrants are so deep in the money).

Another way to approach it is from revenue assumptions.  CYDY will have 1.5MM vials of drug delivered in 2020.  That's 750K doses and at $1200/dose, that's $900MM in revenue before royalties or distribution.  In 2021, they've ordered 5MM vials which is worth $3BB in revenue.  Small pharma often trades at 10x revenue.

I'll give them 1500for a vial  right now.  I'd like it in my first aid kit

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is the $1,200 a vial a ballpark estimate? Seeing reporting on Remdesivir pricing. 

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Posted (edited)

Added another 2000 CYDY. Why not? It only goes up. (8.24)

Edited by cosjobs
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Just now, JerseyToughGuys said:

is the $1,200 a vial a ballpark estimate? Seeing reporting on Remdesivir pricing. 

And don't you need three vials?

Would put it on par with resmediver price-wise, but hugely more effective. (I think I read Res was $3500, but that may also be one of multiple doses.)

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1 minute ago, JerseyToughGuys said:

is the $1,200 a vial a ballpark estimate? Seeing reporting on Remdesivir pricing. 

I've heard 1000-1200 / dose.  Each dose is two vials and most patients will need two doses.  $2000-2400 to treat COVID seems very reasonable to me.

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28 minutes ago, pecorino said:

Wow, good catch. I saw the post and assumed it was one or two contracts. 100 contracts does not sound right unless he just cashed in his epic CYDY profit and is going for the jugular.

Options are for usually for 100 contracts so he only bought one put. 

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this almost makes up for PRGN and those Cobalt picks

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27 minutes ago, cosjobs said:

Added another 2000 CYDY. Why not? It only goes up. (8.24)

Yeah, what the hell. Picked up a little more at 8.30.

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2 minutes ago, caustic said:

Yeah, what the hell. Picked up a little more at 8.30.

Same.

Not much, but something. 

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Posted (edited)

Easiest $30k I've made in a day??

 

EDIT: $40k.  $10k in the last 10 minutes.

Edited by HugeUpside
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Not able to touch cydy without using a market order.

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Up 5x initial purchase price.  :shock: 

$CYDY

#notselling

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Welp, it’s official I’m getting #### faced tonight

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

Not able to touch cydy without using a market order.

Yep.

I chased it up for the last hour, and still made 20¢ /share.

Edit - 30¢ / share in like ten minutes

Edited by -OZ-

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