Also, the volatility is crazy. My last 3 days look like an N, can’t believe I’m up especially with FLGT getting sliced. I bought into the last earnings report for future growth but that ABT news just hurt. It’s funny because CV got them some real nice run up but when it first got on my radar CV didn’t exist. It sure if I should dump thinking short term is all down and maybe I can get back in after it’s trended down a couple months before their next earnings that will probably be great but they might caution on future growth.
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Stock Thread (27 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
BassNBrew
Footballguy
OPIES down -19% (0.75% of my portfolio) - I did make money selling my initial purchases at $18-$20 but have been dripping back in since $16.
DPHCU up +55% (0.2% of my portfolio) - I sold most off on the initial run up. Meant to buy more on the pull back but forgot.
GSAHU down -1% (.4% of my portfolio) - Second Goldman Sachs SPAC, their first one was successful)
FTAC even (.3% of my portfolio) - As I recall they have a dance pertinent that I liked. Haven't checked in on news for awhile.
IPOC down -1% (0.2% of my portfolio) - I think this is the one I trailed you on.
FMCI up 13% (1.2% of my portfolio) - I've been trading this one so I'm actually up more.
I think you make a good point on Opies and will likely add more. I'm just over 3% in the SPAC stuff. Hard to have much more in it when everything else is running. Maybe I'll sprinkle the Blooming I sold today across the board.
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BassNBrew
Footballguy
BassNBrew
Footballguy
-OZ-
Footballguy
ditka...mike ditka said:
Play account - up 60% (opened in March, so this is mostly decent timing)
College accounts are +44%, -5%, -20%, +3%
My Roth IRA: -10% (but up 47% since I went more active), staying in TZA killed me.
Wife's Roth IRA: +1%
TSPs: +3% (no longer contributing), +20%
Overall, if I'm doing the math right (which includes contributions) I'm up 6% YTD. I'll take it.
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Don Hutson
Footballguy
Volume went from 60,700 to 60,701. I hope the person that bought one share didn't have to pay a $50 fee.
FSLY is still a long, long term hold for me. I didn’t have FLGT in that tier until it was popping and the earnings was fantastic and update on the future. I may just sell a half. Still have tome to think on it. I think it’s still got long term potential. None of these CV companies were solely CV before this year but a lot have been swept up in it so going to be turbulent. I don’t play the trading game as much as you buy after the nice run up this year I do need to start thinking about it. October is a big point for me as a lot of my taxable gains become long term. With my wife having a great job, that switchover is a big chunk to lose.
I screwed up DHPC. I watched it too long. Out of all the truck (SUV) EVs I get a better guy feel on them. I like the tie up with GM. Seems like GM may let them roll as a startup and then either buy them outright or use their tech, etc. just seems like it could help them still be relevant in 5 years. You know some of these others will fade away. There’s just so many just public ones and we haven’t even seen all the non public yet ones. Crowded space considering there’s already giants like GM, Ford, Toyota, Tesla, etc. This isn’t a new market being made.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
On a different note, I got a warning from Fidelity for stock price manipulation/wash sale last month. BBQ had no volume one day and a wide spread so I put in a sell order significantly over the last price for one share and then dumped a share a market to see what would happened. Moved the price for the day up maybe 5% on the single share. Evidently you're not supposed to do that.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
I'm getting the feeling that you're not liking FLGT medium/long term. Should I stop chasing it down?
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
McBokonon
Footballguy
I'm not sure if this will cause anyone to change their positions, but I just learned that TD will charge a $38.00 mandatory reorganization fee on my LVGO shares when TDOC and LVGO complete their merger, and most brokerages will likely charge this fee, as well. Never had shares during a merger before.
beef
Footballguy
Random
Footballguy
beef
Footballguy
Where did you see this? I have LVGO in my TD account. The $38 fee won't affect much, but still good to know. I'm kind of wondering how the $11.33 per share gets figured in too and if it'll just show up like a dividend.
1 LVGO = .592 TDOC + 11.33
McBokonon
Footballguy
McBokonon
Footballguy
I saw it on another board and then googled it and it's almost certainly going to happen. It's listed as a fee on TD Ameritrade, too.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I sold the LMND that I had for a bit of a profit this morning when it was back up to 61. Now I see it back down to about 58 again. I guess I will buy some more again.
It wasn’t one of my favorites but became one after the price skyrocketed and the earnings were fantastic. Now that ABT appears (based on FDA and plasma, we may find out their $5 test sucks) to have a better test, it seems like short term is going to all be negative. CV isn’t going away yet so everything else they do is kind of on the back burner. I didn’t buy them for CV. I have a hard time selling stuff so far and honestly there was no real way to see that coming two days ago. Maybe there was and I wasn’t looking enough.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Is that spray-on?
Need to come up with a plan for some downside protection next week. Not sure what that is yet. Still don't want to sell the things I intend to be invested in long-term, and that's most of what I'm down to. Probably more tech risk than is wise, but it's also unlikely to change, so...
A GB suggested:
QQQ is at around 290 right now.
Buy the 260 put out to next Spring or Summer.
Sell the 200.
Need to put some thought into that.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
So I called Fidelity after after an hour on hold got two things cleared up.
1. They won't be charging a re-organiztion fee. Now if there is a fee passed along to them we would be charged, but they would notify up in advance in the fine print of the merger documentation.
2. I bought some stupid Canadian stock and had a $50 fee charged on a $350 entry position purchase. I asked if they could waive it. They said no they could it's what they are charged by the broker. I told him that Cappy from the Footballguys innerwebs got his waived. He conceded that sometimes they make concessions for big dogs like @Capella and @Golf Guy 69 but they'll charge FantasyCurse double to make it up.
caustic
Footballguy
Seems like we might be in for an interesting week:
Adam Mancini @AdamMancini4
Have a great weekend! This year’s biggest test is this week as $SPX nears the trendline that caused every major selloff since 2012 at 3530
Plan: Looking higher to 3530. IF bulls break it, its a decade long breakout with 3650 next up. Ideally we get a good pullback to recharge 1st
1:00 PM · Aug 29, 2020
https://twitter.com/adammancini4/status/1299768967364571139?s=21
Adam Mancini @AdamMancini4
Have a great weekend! This year’s biggest test is this week as $SPX nears the trendline that caused every major selloff since 2012 at 3530
Plan: Looking higher to 3530. IF bulls break it, its a decade long breakout with 3650 next up. Ideally we get a good pullback to recharge 1st
1:00 PM · Aug 29, 2020
https://twitter.com/adammancini4/status/1299768967364571139?s=21
McBokonon
Footballguy
This plus everyone talking about September being a traditionally bad month. I’ve been trading around my forever positions and keeping anywhere from 10-25% in cash on any given day and plan to until I’m comfortable with therapeutics or the vaccine I’m not counting on ever happening.
I think it will trend down. It went up way too much on the news of the split. Splits are meaningless in that a stock that splits is already doing well, hence the need for a split. I don’t believe the more people can own it story. It’s already the most widely held stock as is. It won’t go up because people who couldn’t afford to own it at $500 can buy enough shares at $125 to make a difference. That’s one of those justify the run up stories. Just like most times, but the rumor, sell the news.
TripItUp
Footballguy
I'm mostly cash right now with DKNG/SLV/MAR/BTC my only holdings.
I'm waiting for a pull back before any big re-entries. I may day trade some dips here and there but I'm mostly bearish right now.
Putting my macro-economist hat on, there are a lot of white collar layoffs happening and there are more to come based on my insights into parts of corporate america and the professional services market. I am forecasting that the labor market combined with small business failures eventually negatively impacts the housing market. For these reasons I'm bearish on the overall economy and the broader market. That doesn't mean there won't be opportunities. I remain bullish on DKNG, MAR and potentially others, but I'm overall' bearish right now.
Sentiment could change as the election evolves and as the govt. takes actions. These are the two significant variables to consider.
I'm waiting for a pull back before any big re-entries. I may day trade some dips here and there but I'm mostly bearish right now.
Putting my macro-economist hat on, there are a lot of white collar layoffs happening and there are more to come based on my insights into parts of corporate america and the professional services market. I am forecasting that the labor market combined with small business failures eventually negatively impacts the housing market. For these reasons I'm bearish on the overall economy and the broader market. That doesn't mean there won't be opportunities. I remain bullish on DKNG, MAR and potentially others, but I'm overall' bearish right now.
Sentiment could change as the election evolves and as the govt. takes actions. These are the two significant variables to consider.
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Wouldn’t your overall bearish reasons be bad for DKNG? I mean I think it’s funny that DIS is almost at an all time and there’s an article in the Disney vacation thread where it says they are getting a lot less people coming than they thought and their recent earnings report missed revenue by $1B and their revenue was down $10B. Your argument hits that on the head and in the same vein aren’t people going to have way less disposable income to gamble? There’s some competition and I posted a day or two ago that I wonder if like weed, the addressable market is way overblown for online gambling. When you see how much you are losing and your wife can as well (funding is no longer cash), I think the incentive could be lower. Weed hasn’t blown up like thought in part because the illegal weed is cheaper.
TripItUp
Footballguy
No. I think this stock is a big winner as sports betting proliferates in the coming years. It is best in class with the best mgmt team.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I am a bull on both DIS and DKNG so happy to answer any questions on either.
Personally I completely disagree with the notion that more accessible sports gambling will lead to many people avoiding it or sticking with international companies. What your wife can see you losing I don't think has much merit because they can already see that with DFS and that's still a booming industry. It hasn't slowed anyone down.
Strongly disagree that any serious gambler will stick with the international companies because anyone spending any real money will gladly sacrifice a half a point on the spread every now and again to make sure they are able to withdraw their money. There is no regulation on those international sites and any even semi-serious sum of money is extremely difficult to withdraw. Heritage sports is still holding my account hostage because one of my original deposits was with a CC and they want me to send them a photo of the CC before I can withdraw ANY money (even though most of my deposits were through bitcoin) but that CC has long since expired and I no longer have it. So they are using that as an excuse to not pay out on that account and I've written off that money as probably gone forever. The losses in that ordeal will outweigh any gains I've had shopping spreads around multiple accounts 10x over.
For smaller retail gamblers the ease of use will greatly trump any vig advantages of the international companies. It's a huge pain to get those international accounts funded and none of them have phone apps. Many potential gamblers probably already have a draft kings account with money in it and if they don't it takes all of 2 seconds to create one.
I am even more bullish on Disney than Draft Kings. I've kind of gone through it before but even as my largest holding my only regret with Disney is that I didn't stick to it with enough conviction and let myself play it more conservatively given the overwhelming bear case that pretty much everyone else saw. It was already one of my largest holdings but I bought more at 90, 105, 115, 125. Again my only regret is I didn't buy as much as I really wanted to because I let myself be convinced that it would eventually be available sub 100 again, and then that it would eventually be available sub 110 again, and then that it would eventually be available sub 120 again, etc.
Bull case is pretty simple on that one for me. I'm not trading it so I don't care about the short term affects of COVID. I only care about long-term impact and unlike cruises/airlines (which granted are a part of Disney's business, but a small one) I have no doubt that park attendance and movie revenue will bounce back to pre-COVID levels in the long run without any concerns about the long term health of those profit streams. Meanwhile COVID has fast-forwarded 10 years of Disney+ growth into 10 weeks and they haven't even released most of the Marvel/Star Wars D+ shows they have coming yet. They now have 40% the number of subscribers as Netflix (a $231bn market cap company, worth roughly the same of the ENTIRETY of Disney) from mostly free content that they already had just sitting there.
Sounds good too. I will throw a little caution on the Disney+. I’m a subscriber due to CV and kids being home but it’s nowhere close to Netflix IMHO. Subscriber was right now, it’s doing well but when it comes to renewal, I wonder how much it may lose. Since I started it, there are two things new that I had an interest in and I only watched one, Mandalorian. It kind of had mixed reviews in my all boys household. I think we liked it but unlike a bunch of Netflix/Prime shows (I’ll never cancel that anyway since it costs me nothing more), I wouldn’t subscribe just for that. I think they’ll always have movies end up there but after the box office. No way they want to lose that income. Every blockbuster is basically 10 million yearly subscriptions. Maybe they’ll get on the content side but Disney+ is absolutely our 4th option behind Netflix, Amazon and Hulu (we do their live TV too). They are about where HBO is but I get that free from AT&T.
Anyway, just wanted to throw my thoughts out there because I don’t think Disney has pricing power anywhere close to Netflix. Netflix could double their price and I’d pay it in part by dropping Disney.
It’s good to hear other opinions since I’m not as high on both stocks where they are right now. I’ll keep them in mind.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Right but that's kind of my point. They haven't even started releasing most of the good stuff yet and they already have a huge subscriber base.
Look at Mandolorian. I kind of agree with you. Mediocre show about a new character with no prior fanfare. And look at the reaction it got. Imagine when the Obi-wan Kenobi show and the Loki show and The Winter Soldier show drops.
I am with you on Netflix. As a consumer I think it's pretty much the greatest thing since sliced bread and I can't ever imagine canceling my subscription. But growth wise it doesn't have as much room to run.
Even at $135 and "basically all the way back" Disney's stock today is the same price it was the day Disney+ was announced. When Disney+ was nothing more than a word and people assumed it was probably just going to be a back catalog of movies. Now it's a raging success that has hit its 5 year growth estimates within the first 8 months and the stock can still be purchased for the same as before. So if you feel comfortable making the assumption that in the long-term the Parks business and movies business will not be fundamentally changed by this COVID bump then you're essentially getting Disney+ on top of all the other businesses for free when you buy at this level.
Even if we assume Disney+ can only top out at 1/4 Netflix that's a pretty big pie on top of Disney's already existing business. We can estimate it's already basically halfway there (1/8th Netflix) with 1/4 the number of subscribers at 1/2 the price, all without releasing almost any of their new D+ exclusive content yet.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Right but again this is one I'm planning to hold long-term so not worried about ESPN as sports will obviously be back to normal with just as much television demand as before intime.
To me the cruise business is the only part of their business that has any real chance of being impacted by COVID long-term and that is a much smaller negative than D+ is a positive. And even the cruises are at far less risk than the other cruise companies IMO because Disney cruises have a reputation of being much more sanitary. Also because Disney has amuch longer runway to let that business trend back towards normal if it eventually does since they are not reliant on that revenue to stay in business like Carnival, etc.
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Capella
Footballguy
I don’t know about giving it away. Some quick math says they need to sell about 8M downloads of Mulan to make what they would in theaters. Worldwide, that seems possible to me.
Punxsutawney Phil
Footballguy
I wouldn't be surprised if one of the cruise companies goes under, and Disney/ the others buy up the boats at bargain prices. In times like this the big get bigger, and Disney can handle the storm.
Actually, about 15M to get to the estimates of $434M. That said, don’t forget that this is permanent so you are basically wiping away the DVD/download after going to the movies sales. There is obviously some income from D+ that you could derive but that might cancel out what they would have earned in network sales.
Seems like it would be closer to 30M if you are talking about every dime of revenue Disney would be used to getting since once you buy it you own it. It would be like every family walking out of the theater with a DVD for every family member. It will be interesting to see what happens. The Trolls and other stuff were released when everyone was starved for entertainment. Sort of similar to now but there are sports and people are getting out more.
I miss going to the movies, just a different experience for the epic movies, so this will be an interesting test. Not quite a Marvel movie because the target audience may not quite care as much about the movie theater experience.
One note for you is that D+ is around 30% of Netflix subscribers (@60 to 200). Definitely impressive, about $6B in revenue.
Another potential issue. Are Marvel and Star Wars going to lose their appeal? Just something to think about but look at GOT. That show was at the top of the list, worldwide phenomenon. I can’t even tell you what prequels/sequels they have planned. How soon before those properties start to lose steam? I have no clue but I do wonder.
It’s still on my watch list but I don’t like the current price.
You don’t “know” that yet. The last two SW’s movies (Solo and a Last Jedi) were the lowest grossing SWs movies yet. I’m just using domestic numbers. I’ll be following along and if I invest, I will be evangelical as well. I just think like a do I want to invest person right now.
Capella
Footballguy
Studios only take half of the theatrical cut so 217M. Also can’t imagine they are expecting much DVD sales anymore with the debut of D+.
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No, that $434M was already half of the total expected box office. Going off this Forbes estimate: https://www.forbes.com/sites/genedelvecchio/2020/08/05/disney-can-make-more-money-streaming-mulan-which-will-transform-the-worldheres-how/#312559d91e22
Also, yes, they probably know they are losing DVD sales but that still doesn’t mean they aren’t losing that. There’s still the movie sales that Disney would like to capture before making the movie available on D+. If you think they’d just give that revenue up, you’re crazy. Before digital, movie sales would often be more than total box office, especially Disney movies. Would they still make the movie available to buy via Apple, Prime, Roku and whatever else there is? I’d think so because there has to be a big enough gap so that people who don’t love the movie theater just say I’ll wait until D+ because it’s only a few months away.
Maybe there’s a tiered price. First 3 months, it’s $29, then there’s a two month wait, then $19 for 6 months (could include Apple and others) and then after two more months it’s on D+.
I don’t think movie theaters will go away but I wonder if Netflix might start offering a VOD option for studios that don’t have their own service. Almost like a movie theater splitting box office where Netflix can get them a huge audience that might be OK spending $3 on a new movie that isn’t Black Widow. @Netflix, please send me a few shares for the idea, TIA.
Capella
Footballguy
Ok, honestly I don’t care. I thought the box office expectation was 500M. Point is they’ll be able to get a lot of that back through downloaded sales. That small amount of revenue for Disney doesn’t need to be nitpicked.
I don’t think theaters will exist in their current form 5 years from now.
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