Touchdown There
Footballguy
Better, just not 4th round better. Can't see the value on that team with those qbs. High risk.
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RB/WR Cordarrelle Patterson, PIT (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Eminence
- Start date
steveski
Footballguy
A poor QB? Perfect! Because Patterson is a poor route runner. Screens and 5-10 yards passes...lots of them.
Poor route runner?? He was raw entering the league last year, but should make big strides this year in the department. All that said, he's definitely being drafted a few rounds too early for my liking
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Insoxicated
FunkyPlutos
Footballguy
Doesn't sound like anything but you never know...foot injury.
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ROYALWITCHEESE
Footballguy
BustedKnuckles
Footballguy
IMO one of the biggest things Patterson has going for him is Peterson
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
BustedKnuckles
Footballguy
Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Vikings – June 1 ADP 5.03 – Current ADP 4.05
Patterson is the poster boy for the overvalued “sleeper.” An unquestioned physical monster, he is being drafted among the likes of Pierre Garcon, Victor Cruz, Larry Fitzgerald, and Roddy White. He certainly has the upside to compete with and even surpass that group, but there are questions that need answering before he is considered a top-15 wideout.
The most important of those is his ability as a receiver. It is true that Norv Turner was so giddy at the thought of utilizing Patterson he immediately scribbled “10 plays” in his dream journal, but the fact that Turner felt the need to install specific plays for Patterson should be a hint as to where he is as a receiver.
Calvin Johnson and Dez Bryant do not have specific plays drawn out for them. They run routes and make plays within the constraints of the offense. Patterson does not have the ability yet, as evidenced by his usage last season. According to Pro Football Focus, 22 of Patterson’s 72 targets and 19 of his 45 catches came behind the line of scrimmage. More importantly, 38% of his receiving yards came on passes he caught behind the line of scrimmage.
That kind of production is unsustainable, so he will have to improve on the 52% catch rate and 5.8 yards per target he put up on passes thrown past the line last season if he is to meet his current draft value. He has the talent to do it and may show during the preseason he has acquired the receiving skill necessary to be a big-time fantasy player, but until then he is severely overvalued.
per Rotoworld
Patterson is the poster boy for the overvalued “sleeper.” An unquestioned physical monster, he is being drafted among the likes of Pierre Garcon, Victor Cruz, Larry Fitzgerald, and Roddy White. He certainly has the upside to compete with and even surpass that group, but there are questions that need answering before he is considered a top-15 wideout.
The most important of those is his ability as a receiver. It is true that Norv Turner was so giddy at the thought of utilizing Patterson he immediately scribbled “10 plays” in his dream journal, but the fact that Turner felt the need to install specific plays for Patterson should be a hint as to where he is as a receiver.
Calvin Johnson and Dez Bryant do not have specific plays drawn out for them. They run routes and make plays within the constraints of the offense. Patterson does not have the ability yet, as evidenced by his usage last season. According to Pro Football Focus, 22 of Patterson’s 72 targets and 19 of his 45 catches came behind the line of scrimmage. More importantly, 38% of his receiving yards came on passes he caught behind the line of scrimmage.
That kind of production is unsustainable, so he will have to improve on the 52% catch rate and 5.8 yards per target he put up on passes thrown past the line last season if he is to meet his current draft value. He has the talent to do it and may show during the preseason he has acquired the receiving skill necessary to be a big-time fantasy player, but until then he is severely overvalued.
per Rotoworld
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Each player doesn't have to have a hard-line expected output to be ranked in a certain spot.
It's not necessarily that people think Patterson WILL be a top 5 or top 10 wide receiver, it's that they think he CAN be a top 5 or top 10 wide receiver. Or, more specifically, that his chances of finishing in that range are high enough over his similarly ranked peers that it makes up for his equal or lower floor.
If people were expecting Patterson to be a top 5 WR, he'd be drafted a lot higher than the ~WR20 he's at right now. This is why I dislike projections. It breeds this kind of one dimensional thinking in fantasy owners. Rankings are essentially an unwritten balance of odds. Maybe someone believes that Roddy White has a 75% chance of finishing as a top 25 WR but only a 1% chance of finishing top 5 and a 3% chance of finishing top 10. Meanwhile, maybe they think Patterson has only a 65% chance of finishing top 25 (lower than White) but he has a 10% chance of finishing top 5 and a 20% chance of finishing top 10. That could lead them to value that player much higher than a guy like White even if his chances of finishing top 25 are lower in their minds.
It's exactly those kind of guys, the mid-round guys that blow up into true fantasy studs, that are the real difference makers in fantasy football. Patterson's climb up the ADP rankings involved mostly him leap-frogging guys that either don't have, or have a significantly lower chance of reaching that kind of upside. Meanwhile, his involvement in other aspects of the game besides receiving makes him unique in that it has the additional advantage of also raising his floor above what it typically would be for a boom or bust type wide receiver.
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Chaka
Footballguy
Thanks but that has little to do with my question. I take it from your response that Patterson is generally ranked in the early 20s and I stand by my original statement that I don't understand leagues where WR #20 is taken in the 4th round.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
The first 4 rounds consists of 48 players. You figure 3 QBs (Peyton, Rodgers, Brees) and 2 TEs (Graham/Gronk) in that span, which leaves 43 spots for RBs and WRs. Some leagues may have an extra QB or two and maybe a 3rd TE go in there but either way you're talking about 40 RBs/WRs in the first 4 rounds of most leagues.
ETA: Fantasypros ADP has 5 QBs and 4 TEs in the first four rounds and still has WR20 at the end of the 4th round.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
The first 4 rounds consists of 48 players. You figure 3 QBs (Peyton, Rodgers, Brees) and 2 TEs (Graham/Gronk) in that span, which leaves 43 spots for RBs and WRs. Some leagues may have an extra QB or two and maybe a 3rd TE go in there but either way you're talking about 40 RBs/WRs in the first 4 rounds of most leagues.
ETA: Fantasypros ADP has 5 QBs and 4 TEs in the first four rounds and still has WR20 (who happens to be Patterson) at the end of the 4th round. Given that I think most leagues will have fewer than 9 QB/TE taken in the first four rounds I think WR20 would pretty regularly be going somewhere in there.
Chaka
Footballguy
I get that. I figured it applied to leagues that marginalize QBs and I don't understand those leagues.
If you put every NFL player back in the draft right now how many QBs do you think would be drafted before the 20th WR? I am guessing it would be a lot more than five.
I understand that people don't want to play in super flex leagues (or start 2 QB leagues) because it doesn't realistically reflect the NFL, but having only 4-5 QBs drafted before Cordarrelle Patterson is every bit as unrealistic. Being able to grab a Joe Flacco, Eli Manning, Sam Bradford or Andy Dalton off of your waiver wire in week 8 is even more unrealistic.
QB is the most important player on the football field but the majority of fantasy leagues value Cordarrelle freaking Patterson over Cam Newton, Matt Ryan and Matthew Stafford. That is simply bizarre.
Neither here nor there, just bizarre.
12punch
Footballguy
if they take qb with the first 12 picks in your league I guess you'd find it bizarre, but the rest of us might find your league bizarre.
Chaka
Footballguy
Well that doesn't happen (more like 4-5 QBs and by round 4, 12 teams, typically 16 QBs are off the board and only 11 WRs or so) but I understand the point you are trying to make.
Work the logic though does the argument that one QB is more realistic hold up when Cordarrelle Patterson is more valuable than Cam Newton and Joe Flacco is on the waiver wire?
It doesn't but you like it so have fun.
NJ
Footballguy
http://www.vikings.com/news/lunch-break/article-1/Lunch-Break-July-29-Praise-For-Barr-Bridgewater-Staying-Under-The-Radar/6026d1ca-469c-4761-8418-3a4da937052f
"Vikings wide receiver Cordarrelle Patterson donned full pads for the first time this training camp when he participated in the individual portion of the team’s first night practice at Blakeslee Stadium Monday night."
"Vikings wide receiver Cordarrelle Patterson donned full pads for the first time this training camp when he participated in the individual portion of the team’s first night practice at Blakeslee Stadium Monday night."
⚡DEADHEAD⚡
Footballguy
steveski
Footballguy
This keeps sounding more and more like Marshall and Jeffery last year. I agree with the title too. I feel like there is no ceiling with Patterson. He's Percy Harvin mixed with an ideally sized #1 WR. His future and his legacy is all in his hands. If he becomes a student of the game and truly dedicates himself to being the best football player he can be, then he can be something great.
He already has all the things that can't be taught, now he just needs to learn the things that can be.
Faust
MVP
The Cordarrelle Patterson strategy:
http://espn.go.com/blog/minnesota-vikings/post/_/id/8223/the-cordarrelle-patterson-strategy
http://espn.go.com/blog/minnesota-vikings/post/_/id/8223/the-cordarrelle-patterson-strategy
massraider
Footballguy
No one watched the Raiders game, huh? Good.
Ketamine Dreams
Footballguy
-jb-
Footballguy
jurb26
Footballguy
Saw this in the comments of the video...
"The Cordarrelle Strategy:Step one - put the ball in his hands
Step two - celebrate touchdown"
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Targeted early and often, ran good routes, made good catches.
I'm guessing massraider is saying "good" as in it didn't bump his value too high for him to get him.
Bigboy10182000
Footballguy
massraider
Footballguy
Yeah, didn't mean to sound as mysterious as that.
Tarell Brown was on him, a decent-to-good corner, and looked like a 9 year old hanging off his older brother.
Possibly still a good chance that he is overvalued in drafts, but it won't be for lack of looks. Appears as tho Jennings is just a skinny tight end at this point. He's solid, but isn't going to make any game-changing plays.
This is when preseason isn't useless. For the most part, it is useless. Doesn't matter. But when you see a guy make plays, and they are vs. the 1's, and are things that you don't see average players do, that's when it matters.
Patterson, to me, is why it's really important to put pre-draft 'common knowledge' in the rearview mirror once these guys hit the field. Looks like Patterson's lack of brains and COMPLETE INABILITY to run routes isn't going to stop him from being the focal point of an NFL team's passing game after one year.
steveski
Footballguy
I think the Raiders game was perfect for those of us that really want him but are skeptical of his ADP. He ran good routes and made contested "normal route" catches. These are the type of plays that people are worried about him being able to make. They aren't worried about his playmaking ability so it's good that he didn't make any crazy plays. If he makes crazy plays in the preseason then his ADP will rise. Him looking good running normal routes and catching 3-4 passes game will not raise his ADP, but for those of us who really want him, him doing that is justifying his ADP.
I was skeptical about his ADP before because I was worried he'd be hit or miss and being drafted that early, he's being drafted as an every week starter and he could cost you a lot of games. Him going out there and being a regular WR and running normal routes and doing well, but not doing anything spectacular and catching headlines is more than I could have asked for. I really wish he'd sit out the rest of the preseason now.
I'm picking at the 3/4 turn in one league and yes, I plan on taking him there at this point assuming I get at least one RB in the first 2 rounds.
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SameSongNDance
Footballguy
footballcalculator has him has the 19th WR going off the board (towards end of 4th), essentially up a full round since June. To be honest, I still think that's damn good value and would have no problem buying there.
Yenrub
Footballguy
jabarony
Footballguy
You won't be so happy when you manage to draft him and Cassel/other overthrows him in the regular season, too.
steveski
Footballguy
Baby steps. I'm worrying about getting him on my roster first. Then I'll worry about that.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Despite 21 pages here it seems eerily quiet on this guy.
LittlePhatty
Footballguy
I took him at 4.1 in my main league last weekend and a few other owners seemed quite unhappy (they were probably targeting him mid or late fourth).
Fitz, AJ, and Cruz were still on the board, but Cordarrelle is who I wanted and I knew he would be long gone by my next pick.
Fitz, AJ, and Cruz were still on the board, but Cordarrelle is who I wanted and I knew he would be long gone by my next pick.
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ROYALWITCHEESE
Footballguy
Ace zero1
Footballguy
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
Currently the 14th WR coming off the board in MFL. Risk is starting to out-weigh reward IMO. I..still want him though.
Red River Ninja
Footballguy
I'm in a 14-team keeper league and have an opportunity to trade AJ Green and Keenan Allen, I would get DeMarco Murray, Patterson and Michael Floyd. I post this here as the basis of me wanting to make this trade involves my man-crush on CP and my not being interested in Allen. The only way to make this trade happen is to involve AJ Green, but I wonder if Patterson is going to live up to the hype that 'the machine' is generating for him or if he is over-hyped and I am overlooking Allen as a viable fantasy option going forward. CP looks to me to be a bigger, stronger and sturdier version of Harvin, and Harvin is still getting some hype thrown on him depsite his struggles in his career thus far. Thoughts?
⚡DEADHEAD⚡
Footballguy
I like it a lot, especially if you can get Dunbar to back up Murray to feel secure at that RB slot.
Red River Ninja
Footballguy
Thanks for the quick replies. I made the offer just now and it will be accepted later today. I have been wrestling with this trade for a couple weeks now; between the new offensive philosophy in Cincy and the fact Andy Dalton is going to be the starting QB for AJ for the next few years (at least) I feel like now is the time to move him and get somone with the upside of CP, especially since Allen's value last year was so TD related in some games. CP doesn't need an elite QB to make him elite while I think Allen needs good QB play + system to up his value. Like I said, the reason I posted this here was the whole idea of the trade was born out of my belief that CP is a top-level athlete that is fun to have on your team while Allen is just a guy.
