voiceofunreason
Footballguy
Favre looked great the second last year. I'm sure Brady has plenty of bumps and bruises, it'll catch up soon.
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QB Tom Brady, TB (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter ComfortablyNumb
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BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
Spike
Footballguy
Why? If Belichick stays, he IS going to want a QB. If he doesn't think Brady will be around long and if he does think Jimmy is THAT GUY, he'll have to do something.
Not saying it WILL happen but it could...and Bill is about the only one around with the cache to get away with it.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I find it incredibly hard to believe that there is no succession plan for Brady, whether it involves Garoppolo or any other QB. If Brady is playing at an MVP level and the team is winning SB's, cutting or trading him is just crazy talk. I just don't see BB "winging it" in this area, throwing his arms up in the air and not having any idea of what to do.
Essentially, there are basically three outcomes: Brady decides he has had a fulfilling career and retires (most likely after winning another SB), Brady suffers a serious injury and doesn't come back the same, or his production takes a serious hit do to declining skills and age.
The first one seems like the most likely outcome IMO. If he wins a 6th title, he will be on a mantle no one else is close to getting to. The second option is always a possibility, which IMO ties in to Option #1 . . . get out before you suffer a potentially life changing injury.
Option #3 is where the potential awkwardness comes into play. If Brady is no longer producing and costing the Patriots wins, then the team would have to evaluate benching him, trading him, or cutting him. Brady playing in another team's uniform would not be a good look for NE. There is no reason for Brady to have to find a new home in his forties.
As discussed ad naseum in the Garoppolo thread, it becomes a financial burden to keep two QB's beyond this season and pay them both starting QB money. The simple solution would be to franchise JG for next year, but at that point NE would committing to a $22 million cap hit for Brady and likely another $23 million for Garoppolo. While I suppose it's feasible to do that, tying up $45 million of cap space to one position is not a good business practice, especially when only one of the two could be on the field at the same time.
If the Patriots are ready to anoint Garoppolo as Brady successor, than it would be in their best interest to negotiate an extension with Garoppolo with some sort of tiered salary scale. For example, they could give him a 5 year extension with a $6 million salary for 2018 and $18 million a year thereafter (so 5 years, $78 million). That would translate to Brady being the starter in 2017 and 2018 and Jimmy G. taking over in 2019.
I can see BB letting things play out for one more season (2017) to see what happens in the interim. Brady could get hurt. Garoppolo could be forced to play and could bomb (meaning that maybe he isn't "the guy"), Brady's play could drop off, Goodell could suspend Brady for a season for calling an illegal audible, Brady could win another title and retire, etc.
If the plan is to potentially franchise Garoppolo, I don't think it is a coincidence that the Pats have $20 million in cap room left and haven't really done anything to spent it. They have a couple of mid round rookies to sign, but their roster is pretty close to being set. Maybe they will go out and sign someone like Revis or McCourty, but it doesn't look like they are looking to make a big splash at this point. The point being, BB may be able to pay most of the cost to franchise Garoppolo NEXT year from THIS year's salary cap money. If that is the case, than double paying for a QB in 2018 would become more feasible.
That still could only be a temporary fix, as Brady could want to play more than 2 seasons and Garoppolo is going to want to both play and get paid. As I said in the other thread, there could very well be a plan or agreement already in place known only to Brady, BB, the two Krafts, and Don Yee (agent for both TB12 and JG).
When it comes to what to do with Brady in the future, I am not sure BB has 100% say in the matter. The Krafts likely have veto power, and I am not sure they would let BB cut or trade Brady. Without knowing the circumstances it would be hard to tell if the Krafts would sign off on it, but I do think they would initially vote against Brady playing elsewhere.
Essentially, there are basically three outcomes: Brady decides he has had a fulfilling career and retires (most likely after winning another SB), Brady suffers a serious injury and doesn't come back the same, or his production takes a serious hit do to declining skills and age.
The first one seems like the most likely outcome IMO. If he wins a 6th title, he will be on a mantle no one else is close to getting to. The second option is always a possibility, which IMO ties in to Option #1 . . . get out before you suffer a potentially life changing injury.
Option #3 is where the potential awkwardness comes into play. If Brady is no longer producing and costing the Patriots wins, then the team would have to evaluate benching him, trading him, or cutting him. Brady playing in another team's uniform would not be a good look for NE. There is no reason for Brady to have to find a new home in his forties.
As discussed ad naseum in the Garoppolo thread, it becomes a financial burden to keep two QB's beyond this season and pay them both starting QB money. The simple solution would be to franchise JG for next year, but at that point NE would committing to a $22 million cap hit for Brady and likely another $23 million for Garoppolo. While I suppose it's feasible to do that, tying up $45 million of cap space to one position is not a good business practice, especially when only one of the two could be on the field at the same time.
If the Patriots are ready to anoint Garoppolo as Brady successor, than it would be in their best interest to negotiate an extension with Garoppolo with some sort of tiered salary scale. For example, they could give him a 5 year extension with a $6 million salary for 2018 and $18 million a year thereafter (so 5 years, $78 million). That would translate to Brady being the starter in 2017 and 2018 and Jimmy G. taking over in 2019.
I can see BB letting things play out for one more season (2017) to see what happens in the interim. Brady could get hurt. Garoppolo could be forced to play and could bomb (meaning that maybe he isn't "the guy"), Brady's play could drop off, Goodell could suspend Brady for a season for calling an illegal audible, Brady could win another title and retire, etc.
If the plan is to potentially franchise Garoppolo, I don't think it is a coincidence that the Pats have $20 million in cap room left and haven't really done anything to spent it. They have a couple of mid round rookies to sign, but their roster is pretty close to being set. Maybe they will go out and sign someone like Revis or McCourty, but it doesn't look like they are looking to make a big splash at this point. The point being, BB may be able to pay most of the cost to franchise Garoppolo NEXT year from THIS year's salary cap money. If that is the case, than double paying for a QB in 2018 would become more feasible.
That still could only be a temporary fix, as Brady could want to play more than 2 seasons and Garoppolo is going to want to both play and get paid. As I said in the other thread, there could very well be a plan or agreement already in place known only to Brady, BB, the two Krafts, and Don Yee (agent for both TB12 and JG).
When it comes to what to do with Brady in the future, I am not sure BB has 100% say in the matter. The Krafts likely have veto power, and I am not sure they would let BB cut or trade Brady. Without knowing the circumstances it would be hard to tell if the Krafts would sign off on it, but I do think they would initially vote against Brady playing elsewhere.
I follow Curran on twitter and the night before this article came out someone asked him how long they thought Brady would play? He answered by asking with NE or in the NFL?
Then he writes this story the next day in a timeframe when we have a slow NFL news cycle. While I get a sense he absolutely does believe Brady could play elsewhere at some point I tend to think that tweet literally gave him an idea to write up a what if article on an otherwise slow news day.
steelers1080
Footballguy
Whaaaaaaat? You mean like almost every other great NFL QB?! Impossible!
C'mon people, many great NFL QBs that don't want to hang up their cleats move on to other teams, see Brett Favre, Peyton Manning, Joe Montana. The odds that Brady will keep wanting to play after NE is ready to move on are very high. If NE thinks that Garoppolo is the future, they could trade Brady in less than 2 years. I highly doubt NE keeps Brady 1 season longer than they should, the odds are much higher that they trade him away for something ridiculous before he starts a steep decline in talent.
Bossman
Footballguy
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
Those guys had some pretty good QBs chase them out. Is Jimmy really that good? That will likely be the deciding factor.
Lash
Footballguy
Rodgers, Luck, SYoung = 3 HOFers (more than likely)
Does Garoppolo have that talent to push the GOAT out?
Can you imagine the outcry if Garoppolo is a bust and NE is looking for the next replacement while Brady is still winning games for another team?
I mean I know it is a cruel business but I just don't see the analogy for NE compared to where those other teams were at the time
AngryPatriot
Footballguy
Tom Brady will surely be a bust... in the next 3-5 years.... and someday we will all turn to dust. But until then, enjoy this historic ride.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Brady will retire or bust when Miami, New York, and buffalo put together decent teams that can compete. Otherwise he can win that division when he's 50.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Thread was originally started for redraft for the 2013 season, when he was indeed a bust. Not sure how it eventually became the "Official TB12" thread though.
Mavis
Footballguy
The year he threw for 4300 yards and 25 TDs to 11 picks? I guess his TDs were lower than most years and he started off slow, but a bust? No. He had worse years, but a bust? Reach at best. I remember fantasy people losing their mind because he started of slow and after the KC game, things changed.
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
Brady had a sub par season in 2013. However, Gronk got hurt. Hernandez killed someone. Vereen missed half the season. Amendola got dinged. And Welker, Lloyd, and Branch all departed from the season before. None of that had anything to do with Brady.
He was QB13 on the year (16 in PPG), his ADP at the beginning of the season was QB4. That is pretty much a textbook bust in fantasy. Also he wasn't just starting off slow during that time, he was QB 32 in PPG through the first 8 games of the season. It wasn't until the 2nd half of the season that he put together some great games and salvaged his end of year ranking.
Mavis
Footballguy
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Weeks 9-16 2013Buckna said:
5/7 games multiple tds
6/7 games 296+ yds
no game with more than 1 int
ill take that for a "bust" year.
Compare him against the field. He was QB7 through that period (QB5 in PPG) Not bad... But you conveniently left out week 17, include that and he was QB9 during that stretch (QB7 in PPG.) Still not that bad...
Except you are completely leaving out that he was QB32 (32!!!) in PPG during weeks 1-8. Literally, the worst fantasy QB in the league for half the season and 60% of the fantasy regular season. And his bounce back assumes that you even started him in week 9 (which was his best game of the year) after 8 weeks of putrid fantasy numbers. Dude was unequivocally a fantasy bust that year.
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Snorkelson
Footballguy
I get your point, and it's hard to go back and say it could have been foreseen, but losing all his weapons and throwing to Thompkins and dobson there was bound to be an adjustment period. I only left out week 17 because it's fantasy irrelevant, and his playoff numbers were down as well, so I'm not going to defend his season too much. He didn't perform to his draft expectations, but when I think bust it's a more colossal flop of a season where they offer you nothing the whole year.Compare him against the field. He was QB7 through that period (QB5 in PPG) Not bad... But you conveniently left out week 17, include that and he was QB9 during that stretch (QB7 in PPG.) Still not that bad...
Except you are completely leaving out that he was QB32 (32!!!) in PPG during weeks 1-8. Literally, the worst fantasy QB in the league for half the season and 60% of the fantasy regular season. And his bounce back assumes that you even started him in week 9 (which was his best game of the year) after 8 weeks of putrid fantasy numbers. Dude was unequivocally a fantasy bust that year.
I looking to see if we can use this lesson in regression due to loss of weapons for this year, but it seems most of the qbs you'd want to start added weapons, can't think of anyone that lost their wr1. Maybe cousins? They added Pryor but expect doctson to contribute, perhaps his season gets off to a slower start this year while he builds rapport with his new WRs or while they sort out the depth chart.
Bossman
Footballguy
Fact.
There is no other reason for the Pats to have not traded JG since:
- JG will not sign a contract to be a backup next season
- Pats will not surrender $20m in cap space to franchise tag a backup QB
- Tag & Trade? The Pats would have just traded JG this year and loaded up with better and more draft picks a year sooner.
This is Bradys last season. Savor it.
Don't agree with your tag & trade comment.
What they're buying by waiting a year is keeping their options open. They're not giving up that much by waiting a year.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
As I have mentioned in several threads, the Pats could get creative in how they structure an extension for JG. For example, they could give him a 5 year extension with back up dollars the first year or two and pay him top of the market for the last three. And they could include language that he would get bumped up to starter money if he made X amount of starts that year.
For example, starting in 2018: $8 million, $8 million, $23 million, $23 million, $23 million = 5 years, $85 million. And give him the first 3 years guaranteed or something like that. JG would be getting a ton more than he is today and might end up getting the same as he would on the open market (possibly with more guaranteed).
Such a deal could get the Pats the option to have Brady for 2017, 2018, and 2019. Brady is signed through 2019. If he wanted to stick around longer than that, the Pats would tell him he would have to play for cheap. We all know Brady is not hurting for money, and by that point he might play for a low ball deal.
That's just a quick idea on how NE could do it and keep both guys. BB would figure out a way to make it work if they really wanted JG around. Heck, if they did do a deal like that, then they could franchise Butler on top of it.
Bossman
Footballguy
Sure that would be great for the Patriots .... but as a free agent next year, why would JG do that?
He will likely have multiple teams bidding for his services at starter money from day 1 ...
and he would be a starter next year instead of waiting until he is 30 years old.
Bossman
Footballguy
I believe they gave up a ton by waiting a year but it depends on how much value you put in 1st round draft picks.
I can only speculate ... as aggressive as the Browns were in pursuing JG, I'm thinking the Pats could have gotten the #12 pick this year and a 1st next year. (1st and 2nd at worst).
Tag and trade will likely net them a 2nd rd pick.
Not to mention the fact that a trade this year would have helped the team a year sooner ... this year as rookies and the rest of Bradys 3 or 4 more seasons as they sometimes take a year or two to develop into quality players.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Come on. He could get more than that on the open market plus a chance to start. I'm sure he loves playing for the Pats and having a chance at rings, but if he's any kind of competitor (and I'm sure he is) he's going to want to play. That deal says "you're sitting for two more years, Jimmy". You see that as realistic?
Anarchy99
Footballguy
He would get $17 million a year and maybe more if he started sooner. Is a team really going to pay a guy with 2 career starts more than that (and $39 million guaranteed)? I highly doubt it.
He'd be 28 or 29 worst case by the time he took over.
What's his upside going elsewhere as an unproven free agent? 3 years for $45 million like Glennon just got? The chances are JG on a lousy team with a poor system won't make him shine like he would in NE. IMO, his value and his contact could be highest in NE. What would he look like on the Browns, Jets, Niners, etc.?
i don't think the contract I proposed would be that bad for JG and could end up getting him more money overall than if he left and went to a bottom feeder.
And there is always the chance he takes over for Brady and makes even more money.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Bossman
Footballguy
Not like any NFL team is going to have the same quality of talent that he had while breaking lots of records at Eastern Illinois.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
He is a lot more sought after than Glennon was and his contract would reflect that. I think he'd get as much or more than Osweiler did on the market.
As to his success being tied to New England's system, that's easy for us to say but no one with the competitive streak to make it to the position he has in the NFL believes that about themselves.
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Insoxicated
Why pressuring Tom Brady is risky
TLDR:
• Lowest Sack percentage when under pressure: 10.6% (NFL Average 16.1%)
• Highest QBR when facing a blitz: 131.4 (NFL Average 91.1)
TLDR:
• Lowest Sack percentage when under pressure: 10.6% (NFL Average 16.1%)
• Highest QBR when facing a blitz: 131.4 (NFL Average 91.1)
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
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Insoxicated
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I'll take the over all day. I suspect he destroy the NFL this year.
Bossman
Footballguy
He is certainly capable of hitting 50 TD's again this year with the weapons at his disposal.
... but the Pats LOVE to run it in when they can. I see lots of rushing TD's again this year.
I'll take the over but it's gonna be close to 35.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
He was on a pace for 37 TD in the regular season last year. Adding in the post season, Brady had 35 TD in 15 games. One would think that adding Cooks, getting back Gronk, losing Blount's rushing TD's, and playing teams with competent QB's would equal more TD's. That being said, I would take the over but it may be just barely (36 or 37 TD). If the defense is really good, NE may take the air out of the ball in the second half of games (well, probably in the first half too, but that's for different reasons) and just run clock late in games. It will be interesting to see who take on the run-the-ball-with-8-men-in-the-box role up 34-13.
DropKick
Footballguy
JG has to have some value this season, even as a backup, given this team is a SB favorite. Let's call that the insurance policy perspective.
He also offers some value (even if its just a year) to gauge where Brady is both health and skill wise after the 2017 season.
If someone had blown NE away with an offer for JG, I suspect they would have moved him. I suspect no one was willing to offer what NE wanted. Keeping him can make complete sense and not mean Brady is calling it quits.
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