Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Trent Hillis looks pretty good on MNF tonight.
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The Trent Richardson Thread (5 Viewers)
- Thread starter False Start
- Start date
Invictus~Bronte
Footballguy
Funny how Hillis, off the couch, had no problem grasping the Offense, blocking and catching. Oh yes, scoring respectable fantasy points too.
If TRich had his output in his first week with Indy, most of the people in here would be saying 'lol looked like ####, lucky that his team put in the position to get a cheap TD to make his fantasy output it look quasi-respectable.'
C'mon man, he went for 36 yards from 18 carries...
Even with Weeden healthy and good, neither of which he is, the Browns had a slew of injuries this pre-season and realized they were not a contender for the playoffs, what with the Gordon suspension and all. They also realized Ben Tate would be a FA this offseason and rumor is they like Tate a lot. So for a few extra dollars they end up with Tate and a 1st for Trent. It was a great trade, regardless how Trent played this year, and may pay as early as next year.
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GroveDiesel
Footballguy
I think this is a good reminder of why we need to be careful to call collusion or "league breaking trade" in our fantasy leagues.
Just looking at the fbg dynasty rankings and Trent hasn't moved from his ranking at two. I've dealt him away recently for Gio and am trying to shift him for Spiller in another. I'm wondering what I am missing with the rankings as they point to him being a fantastic buy low opportunity, which is the opposite of my thoughts on watching his play this season.
I have a lot of time for the opinions of staff such as Adam and non staff posters like EBF but it's very hard to marry that to what I'm watching on the field.
I have a lot of time for the opinions of staff such as Adam and non staff posters like EBF but it's very hard to marry that to what I'm watching on the field.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
The FBG dynasty rankings - no offense to them - are usually behind. There are only 2-3 guys whose rankings I look at anymore.
EBF is a Trent guy, for better or worse, and with all due respect. I haven't heard Adam explain his Trent ranking yet.
I think your sample size is small. I feel confident suggesting that his ranking will continue to fall. FBG will catch up and others will chime in.
If I had to guess, if I took a poll of the guys I trust most - Trent's sitting around RB6-RB10. I'd likely slot him in that range too (maybe a bit lower). I think you did well getting Gio for him. I'd likely move him for Spiller too, although Spiller is proving to be human, too.
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EBF
Footballguy
I've explained my personal reasoning pretty thoroughly over the last few pages, so I won't rehash those points again here. Basically, I think there's still a high chance that he becomes a very good starting RB and that people who sell really low right now will live to regret it. If you think his stats this season are an accurate reflection of his ability, you have to believe he's one of the bottom 5-6 starters in the NFL. I just don't buy that. I think it's the perfect storm of bad supporting cast, tough schedule, growing pains, and learning a new offense on the fly. I think there's nowhere to go but up from here.
Having said that, his value has definitely fallen in my view too. He's gone from being an early 1st round dynasty startup pick to a guy that I probably wouldn't take until the 2nd now.
Part of what keeps his value high is the lack of amazing alternatives. There really aren't that many proven elite young players in the NFL, so once those guys are off the board you're either taking elite old players without much left in the tank, mediocre young players, or high potential unproven young players. For someone like me who prefers to build young, I would rather take a chance on Trent realizing his potential than ship him out for 2 years of a proven star, a mediocre player, or another dice roll with a prospect that I didn't like as much in the first place.
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
yep. hes not even the same guy as with the browns. he did show some excellent lateral movement and explosiveness despite his low ypc. check his td vs the bengals last yr.
credit the browns with cutting bait on this guy at the right time. colts and owners better hope he gets the proper training otherwise he is going the way of felix jones.
BearsFan4Life
Footballguy
14 Team Dynasty ...contemplating dealing TRich for DJaxduaneok66 said:
duaneok66
Footballguy
I am not a big fan of D Jackson (incomplete skill set) but I would do that deal in a split second.
cstu
Footballguy
I would not do that simply because most people still think he's a top 3 dynasty RB. If you are going to move him, put him up for bid.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
Richardson, Martin and Wilson... the 2nd yr stud RBs really took a poop this yr
Invictus~Bronte
Footballguy
Yes, and still didn't have the problem or use the 'excuse' of not knowing the blocking schemes. We're talking about Peyton Hillis here, need I remind. A guy they dialed up off his couch, who coincidentally, was more productive then Trich much cheaper for the Browns.Kree said:
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
True that, although Wilson has never been a stud; Martin was at least a stud last year, and Richardson was nearly one (had the TDs and catches, but not quite the yards).
Regardless, Richardson just looks awful. I know Indy doesn't have a great line for run-blocking, but it is shocking how pedestrian Richardson will look, and then in comes Donald freaking Brown, who looks like Walter Payton compared to Richardson. Shame on me for buying the hype on this guy.
Seeing how Bradshaw was doing decent and and brown is looking way better, I've given up on Trent. It's hard for me to blame the O line or him still not knowing the play book when we have not seen any type of production. I've been banking on Trent to get a whole lot of catches but even in Indy he's not. Just can't see him doing well this year anymore
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Sweetness_34
Footballguy
The Browns must be laughing right now....1st round pick for this turd? In a league when Randy Moss went for a 4th rounder and proceeded to post most TDs ever for a WR? How bad are these NFL GMs seriously. The Colts GM should be fired for giving up a 1st rounder .... now with Wayne gone, they are screwed for 2 years now. No chance they win a SB this year or next year. Who is Luck going to throw the ball to? DHB and Hilton? LMAO
DoubleG
Footballguy
For all the people saying things like "he has no vision" or "he's just a plodder" or "I shouldn't have bought into the hype", there's one problem, imho. Something just doesn't add up here - and I honestly don't know what it is (i.e. I am not about to make an excuse for him).
The hype, at the time, was at least partially based on his talent - not just his production at 'bama. So he isn't "just a plodder" and he did (does?) have vision - and there have been times he has shown both wiggle and speed at the NFL level (the Cincy clip being one of them).
As I said, I am not here to make excuses and am not sure what his problem is - but something just isn't adding up here. In today's NFL it is rare for teams, scouts, "experts", etc. to be THIS wrong about a player - especially at the RB position...twice.
ETA: I guess if I had him in redraft, I'd cut him or at least send him deep to the bench. In dynasty, if there are people in your league who still believe,l I guess you move him - but more than likely (unless you have very shallow benches) - you're probably just better off holding and hoping the light bulb comes (back?) on.
The hype, at the time, was at least partially based on his talent - not just his production at 'bama. So he isn't "just a plodder" and he did (does?) have vision - and there have been times he has shown both wiggle and speed at the NFL level (the Cincy clip being one of them).
As I said, I am not here to make excuses and am not sure what his problem is - but something just isn't adding up here. In today's NFL it is rare for teams, scouts, "experts", etc. to be THIS wrong about a player - especially at the RB position...twice.
ETA: I guess if I had him in redraft, I'd cut him or at least send him deep to the bench. In dynasty, if there are people in your league who still believe,l I guess you move him - but more than likely (unless you have very shallow benches) - you're probably just better off holding and hoping the light bulb comes (back?) on.
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At Alabama, he was running behind an O-line of future NFL players against teams that didn't always have multiple defenders that were future NFL'ers. So his "vision" in seeing and exploiting huge holes might have been over-rated. Most of his big runs/catches (including the Cincy clip) in the NFL (that I've seen) were not a result of him having great vision, exactly; he had a decent hole, or caught the ball in space; then he was able to get up to speed and run through tackles (many of them by DBs, not D-linemen).
He is a very physical runner, and if/when he gets up to speed, he can be tough to tackle, especially since IF he is able to get up to speed, it is the smaller DBs trying to tackle him, rather than D-linemen or LBs. Based on what I've seen, he doesn't have great short area quickness or great vision. So, unless he has an O-line that can open up decent holes, he will have trouble getting to that 2nd level.
cstu
Footballguy
Here are the players the Browns have drafted in the 20+ range in the 1st since 2000:
- Weeden
- Phil Taylor
- Brady Quinn
- Jeff Faine
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I don't know that I buy this. It's nice playing behind NFL talent, but he's playing against it too. He was playing against LSU, Florida, SCar, UGA,etc. As we can see - those teams had tons of defenders drafted by the NFL; early and often.
amnesiac
beer is good
irrelevant.
I don't have time to do a whole lot of research right now, but here's a real quick "defense" for my point.
Richardson was drafted in 2012. In that same draft, there were 9 non-Alabama DL or LBs** drafted out of the SEC. 3 went in the first round, 1 each in the 4th, 5th, & 6th, and 3 in the 7th. Only two of those players were on the same team (South Carolina). So, yes, the SEC produces NFL talent, but usually only a player or two up front. That's not even remotely the same as facing an entire front seven of NFL players. During his time in Alabama, Trent ran behind 4 O-linemen that have been drafted to the NFL, 3 first-rounders, and 1 3rd rounder. When you have multiple future NFL players blocking for you against only 1 (maybe 2) future NFL defenders, you are likely to seem some big holes & running lanes. When Richardson gets those holes, he is able to exploit his top-end speed and physicality. When he doesn't, it seems like his vision and short-area quickness aren't sufficient to "make something out of nothing."
**I'm only counting DL & LB's because (as I've already posted), I think Richardson's very effective when he is able to get up a head of steam, even against NFL DBs**
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Catbird
Footballguy
I'm not one to linger over college stats and performance, but to maintain your point, wouldn't you have to look at Frosh, Sophs, Juniors and Seniors who became/become NFL players and were playing at SEC schools and facing TRich in college, not just those who turned pro when he did? The talent and competition level there is a lot stronger than you make it out.
I think not having to think about how a play, but instinctively moving through it because it has become second nature, does make a lot of difference to explosiveness at the outset - so I think a year in a system can make a big difference. That said, some difference in the initial movement isn't likely to turn what we are seeing now into a ProBowl player. I see the potential to be a top 15-18 RBs as what I'll expect in fantasy. I think the Browns realized he isn't all he was cracked up to be and cut their losses. They got a late 1st back where they spent a very early 1st. Not good value if TRich were who we thought he was, bt I think they had realized he wasn't.
But I do think the Browns recent late 1st picks list is relevant to say that what you get for a 1st in the late 20s or early 30s is a LOT more speculative than what you should be getting with a 3rd or 4th overall pick.
I think not having to think about how a play, but instinctively moving through it because it has become second nature, does make a lot of difference to explosiveness at the outset - so I think a year in a system can make a big difference. That said, some difference in the initial movement isn't likely to turn what we are seeing now into a ProBowl player. I see the potential to be a top 15-18 RBs as what I'll expect in fantasy. I think the Browns realized he isn't all he was cracked up to be and cut their losses. They got a late 1st back where they spent a very early 1st. Not good value if TRich were who we thought he was, bt I think they had realized he wasn't.
But I do think the Browns recent late 1st picks list is relevant to say that what you get for a 1st in the late 20s or early 30s is a LOT more speculative than what you should be getting with a 3rd or 4th overall pick.
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Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Food for thought from PFF:
https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/10/23/analysis-notebook-bonus-edition/
Basically, they lay a lot of the blame on Indy's O-line. If they're right, Richardson's value could easily get a huge bump of Indy can bolster their line this off season.
https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/10/23/analysis-notebook-bonus-edition/
Basically, they lay a lot of the blame on Indy's O-line. If they're right, Richardson's value could easily get a huge bump of Indy can bolster their line this off season.
Bobcat10
Footballguy
How bad do you think the Colts GM wants that pick back only to offer it for Gordon?
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
I was one of the first people saying that it seemed like the Colts robbed the Browns but that we should wait and see instead of just assuming that they did.
I still don't think Richardson has elite talent because he's just too slow on the field, but when guys who watch and grade every player on every play like the guys at PFF say that his O-line is a major factor, I think it's worth considering.
JMon348
Footballguy
Just to be clear, I'm not saying he is faster than a DB, but that IF he gets up a head of steam, at that point, he is usually up against a DB, and it is easier for him to run through a DB tackle than that of a DL or LB.
Yes, you are correct. However, I prefaced my post with "I don't have time to do all the research right now."
Feel free to check it out, if you want, but the talent level isn't as deep as you think it is. There are usually 7 players in the DL and LB. If you have only 1 or 2 future NFL players there, (and not all SEC teams do/did), that can be game-planned around. In the NFL, Richardson can't count on the large holes he saw at Alabama. He doesn't seem to have the vision or short-area quickness to make up for that.
Yenrub
Footballguy
Last week on the NFL networks AFC Playbook show they did a breakdown on Trent and how he leaves a lot of yards on the field because he doesn’t see available cutback lanes and only runs to the designed holes.
They attribute this to his lack of vision
cstu
Footballguy
Who knows, maybe the new management is better at identifying talent then all the previous ones but I'm not holding my breath.
werdnoynek
Footballguy
EDIT: Article is kind of meh without the photos, I suggest you just go read this....
https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/10/23/analysis-notebook-bonus-edition/
https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/10/23/analysis-notebook-bonus-edition/
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Meh, the cliffs notes is basically "yeah Richardson is missing the holes, but maybe sometimes it's better to just run where the play is designed even if a hole isn't there" and "yeah the other Indy running backs have done much better, but each of them individually have only a small sample size of carries, and I'm just going to ignore that all 3 combined have a pretty good sample size of carries".
cstu
Footballguy
werdnoynek
Footballguy
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shader
Footballguy
At some point he has to produce. Fancy photos showing why he doesn't produce and blaming everyone else around him only works for so long.
Raiderfan32904
Footballguy
Last few posts: "So you're saying there's a chance?"
brilliant!
brilliant!
