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[Dynasty] Todd Gurley

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Saw this on MFL:

 

(RotoWire) Gurley (knee) is expected to be available for the start of the Rams' offseason program April 15, Gary Klein and Jeff Miller of the Los Angeles Times report.

Analysis: The status of Gurley's left knee will probably be the biggest story line surrounding the Rams' offseason and that narrative appears to be starting on a positive note. Head coach Sean McVay declined to comment much on the subject at this week's NFL owner's meetings and specifically didn't touch on whether Gurley is dealing with arthritis or not, but he did mention the team has a plan in place to manage the running back's health going forward. Joining him in offseason workouts will be Malcolm Brown, who Los Angeles effectively decided to re-sign over C.J. Anderson.

 

Would be rather nice to see him participating in some form. The signing of Brown over CJ is also interesting, although it was much cheaper than the tag they had used on him so it was rather a no-brainer. #nervousgurleydynastyowner

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We will see what Aurther Itis says about how involved Gurley is 

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As a fan and dynasty owner I’m officially worried after tonight’s draft. 

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3 minutes ago, dkp993 said:

As a fan and dynasty owner I’m officially worried after tonight’s draft. 

Henderson is their 3rd RB now. I wouldnt count on Gurley getting 30 touches a game, but hes the guy

and I love Henderson

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1 minute ago, Dr. Dan said:

Henderson is their 3rd RB now. I wouldnt count on Gurley getting 30 touches a game, but hes the guy

and I love Henderson

I hope so but the injury worried me last year and when I heard about the arthritis I got real concerned. This all but confirms the worst fears. As a guy who’s had 3 knee surgeries and arthritis in both knees (@ only 43) I know how this can effect things.

Would hate to see what looked to be an all-pro career cut short. 

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27 minutes ago, dkp993 said:

As a fan and dynasty owner I’m officially worried after tonight’s draft. 

Henderson was the 70th pick, it isn't like the Rams drafted a RB in the 1st round.  

Still a bit concerning, but having depth at the position is par for the course.

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19 minutes ago, ILUVBEER99 said:

Henderson was the 70th pick, it isn't like the Rams drafted a RB in the 1st round.  

Still a bit concerning, but having depth at the position is par for the course.

Fair, but teams don’t typically match an offer sheet (when cap space is extremely tight) for a favored backup then give up 2 3rd round picks to move up and draft another talented RB all behind the highest paid RB in the league if they were just building depth.  Lots of smoke is all I’m saying, there’s gotta be a fire burning imo.  I certainly hope not and will gladly be wrong here.  

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6 minutes ago, dkp993 said:

Fair, but teams don’t typically match an offer sheet (when cap space is extremely tight) for a favored backup then give up 2 3rd round picks to move up and draft another talented RB all behind the highest paid RB in the league if they were just building depth.  Lots of smoke is all I’m saying, there’s gotta be a fire burning imo.  I certainly hope not and will gladly be wrong here.  

Agree, it's concerning...but when rookie drafts happen we'll have no idea on Gurley's health.  

There are signs of smoke though, you're definitely right on that.

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Quote

Rams coach Sean McVay said the team could use more two-back formations in 2019.

McVay is basically confirming the obvious after the team somewhat surprisingly matched RFA Malcolm Brown's offer sheet and used the No. 70 overall pick on Darrell Henderson. More two-back looks would be a major departure for McVay, who has deployed "11" personnel almost exclusively in Los Angeles. McVay has also alluded to giving Gurley more rest. "As far as managing the workload, those are things that we talk about with Todd and as you continue to get educated on, is that something that we should do for the long haul or something that is or isn’t going to affect Todd most importantly and how does that affect our team." It sounds like Gurley's knee woes down the stretch last season were a wake-up call for his coach. We might not get the same sort of league-winning usage we saw in 2017 and most of 2018.

SOURCE: ESPN Los Angeles

Apr 30, 2019, 3:00 PM ET

 

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I'm late to this discussion and not sure if mentioned, it seemed CJ Anderson was a really good fit in LA and produced well. I cannot imagine they would have let hime walk after how well he played. Not sure what he was paid but I cant imagine is was big money.

Also a 5'8 third rd RB sounds more like a gadget player than a contingency plan. Had they drafed a workhorse typ back it would feel different.

 

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He's a lock for 1,100 yards / 8 touchdowns. Receptions are too variable based to predict but he'll have a ton of them. Small chance he has some severe knee issues. I'd make at trade for him if your team has a chance to win this season. Otherwise, I think I like Melvin Gordon over him for longevity's sake.

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9 hours ago, Raptors409 said:

He's a lock for 1,100 yards / 8 touchdowns. Receptions are too variable based to predict but he'll have a ton of them. Small chance he has some severe knee issues. I'd make at trade for him if your team has a chance to win this season. Otherwise, I think I like Melvin Gordon over him for longevity's sake.

Well, Gordon has been hurt every season and has his own history of knee problems. 

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On 4/27/2019 at 12:48 AM, ILUVBEER99 said:

Henderson was the 70th pick, it isn't like the Rams drafted a RB in the 1st round.  

Still a bit concerning, but having depth at the position is par for the course.

 

With the 67th pick of the 2017 NFL Draft, the New Orleans Saints select Alvin Kamara.

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11 minutes ago, zeeshan2 said:

Todd Gurley (knee) was asked if he could confirm reports he was suffering from a degenerative condition or arthritis. "All I can focus on is how I’m doing right now," he said.

https://twitter.com/adamlevitan/status/1124298027051683840

While we don't know the state of Gurley's knee, reading the tea leaves portends a drop off. The question is now how much less production we will get from Gurley. His overall RB 1 days appear over. In some cursory rankings I have seen, he falls between RB5-RB9 overall and still costs a mid to late first. Too bad- he's the type of player that is easy to route for; electric on the field and a quality person off of it.

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"Nope, it's not overblown...they would be wise to be prepared because the knee has gone through a lot from college to now, so they have to brace for it swelling up again" - Glazer

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1 hour ago, Bojang0301 said:

"Nope, it's not overblown...they would be wise to be prepared because the knee has gone through a lot from college to now, so they have to brace for it swelling up again" - Glazer

Nice selective quoting.

Also, "I think the biggest test will be what happens early in the season. If he runs and it doesn’t blow up and the Rams are able to use him as a workhorse, then a lot of those concerns will go away." - Glazer

In other words, if he's ok he's ok and if he's not he's not.  Shockingly good journalism!

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6 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

Nice selective quoting.

Also, "I think the biggest test will be what happens early in the season. If he runs and it doesn’t blow up and the Rams are able to use him as a workhorse, then a lot of those concerns will go away." - Glazer

In other words, if he's ok he's ok and if he's not he's not.  Shockingly good journalism!

You’re pretty sour about this aren’t you. Kinda wormy to ask me not engage you in debate and then try to call me out where you can. I’ll be putting you on ignore before I say anything too unkindly that gets me a vacation. Don’t quote me again. 

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21 minutes ago, Bojang0301 said:

You’re pretty sour about this aren’t you. Kinda wormy to ask me not engage you in debate and then try to call me out where you can. I’ll be putting you on ignore before I say anything too unkindly that gets me a vacation. Don’t quote me again. 

Pretty radical reaction to having written a quote out of context.

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If you had intended to sell in a dynasty at this point might as well stop trying. My league mates are convinced his leg is almost falling off and he's worthless now :rolleyes:

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1 hour ago, ffmail4me said:

If you had intended to sell in a dynasty at this point might as well stop trying. My league mates are convinced his leg is almost falling off and he's worthless now :rolleyes:

Why are you trying to trade him?

If you were to trade him, whats a deal you would do? For example just talking about draft picks this year and/or next year.

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I own him him in my big main league (auction keeper) at a solid value.  Can keep him for $41, top tier backs typically go in the high 50’s/low 60’s at draft.  Will be keeping him largely due to the upside and what I’d get back in a trade won’t be worth the upside he brings.   If he falls short, so be it.  He was the corner stone of 3 championships for me so I’m gonna stick instead of getting pennies on the dollar.  I also am of the opinion he’s got a yr or 2 left on the knee.  🤞

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, Bojang0301 said:

You’re pretty sour about this aren’t you. Kinda wormy to ask me not engage you in debate and then try to call me out where you can. I’ll be putting you on ignore before I say anything too unkindly that gets me a vacation. Don’t quote me again. 

I didn't ask you not to engage me, I simply said I didn't want to discuss Jacobs with you.  You're set on your position with him and I don't feel it necessary to have you keep repeating it.

Why do I have to be "sour" to point out that you only presented 1/2 of his comment?  I'm sure when others do that you'll call them on it too - as you should.  I wasn't even picking on you nearly as much as I was on him - it's a nonsense comment.

Not sure why you're so riled up but I hope tomorrow is a better day for you.

Edited by Hankmoody
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1 hour ago, ghostguy123 said:

Why are you trying to trade him?

If you were to trade him, whats a deal you would do? For example just talking about draft picks this year and/or next year.

I traded Gurley a few weeks ago for Kelce and a 2020 1st that could go anywhere.  I think the "why" is obvious - to get out of the risk while there's still value to salvage.

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2 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

I traded Gurley a few weeks ago for Kelce and a 2020 1st that could go anywhere.  I think the "why" is obvious - to get out of the risk while there's still value to salvage.

I asked the other guy why he was trying to trade him.  It seems weird he isnt happy his leaguemates are very low on Gurley, yet there he is trying to trade him likely due to his own concerns about Gurleys health.  

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3 hours ago, ffmail4me said:

If you had intended to sell in a dynasty at this point might as well stop trying. My league mates are convinced his leg is almost falling off and he's worthless now :rolleyes:

Well there is a reason you want to sell him right?

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43 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Well there is a reason you want to sell him right?

Well sure, we all read the articles coming out, so it makes sense if you aren't a risk taker you'd prefer to sell at a discount BUT...we are still talking Todd freaking Gurley here, he's not lost a limb and he's not dead yet. Like the above poster mentioned he sold him for Kelce and a 2020 1st, that's good value. But I had someone tell me I would have to give him Matt Ryan, Gurley, Julio Jones, and Njoku for Kamara. I think that's just absurd. Just my opinion, but its treating Gurley like he's worth a late 3rd rookie pick now 

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, ffmail4me said:

If you had intended to sell in a dynasty at this point might as well stop trying. My league mates are convinced his leg is almost falling off and he's worthless now :rolleyes:

His sell high point has come and gone, absolutely. At this point he holds more value for you than he does in any trade. You might be able to sell during the season if he has shown no signs of slowing down, but the arthritis bell has been rung. IMO in season trading has the most upside but the most risk too... he could be worth nothing at that point, at least nothing worth trading him away for. 

 

DLF has an interesting thread about selling high. Who are those guys? And many people suggest players who are already on the downswing. A poster made the comment that sell highs might be more:

Barkely, Hopkins, Zeke

the argument is that their value will never be higher. and that's probably true. 

Gurley was probably sell high last year

Edited by Dr. Dan

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52 minutes ago, ffmail4me said:

Well sure, we all read the articles coming out, so it makes sense if you aren't a risk taker you'd prefer to sell at a discount BUT...we are still talking Todd freaking Gurley here, he's not lost a limb and he's not dead yet. Like the above poster mentioned he sold him for Kelce and a 2020 1st, that's good value. But I had someone tell me I would have to give him Matt Ryan, Gurley, Julio Jones, and Njoku for Kamara. I think that's just absurd. Just my opinion, but its treating Gurley like he's worth a late 3rd rookie pick now 

Same reason you want to sell is the same reason they aren't backing up the brinx  truck.

Imagine that.

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59 minutes ago, ffmail4me said:

Well sure, we all read the articles coming out, so it makes sense if you aren't a risk taker you'd prefer to sell at a discount BUT...we are still talking Todd freaking Gurley here, he's not lost a limb and he's not dead yet. Like the above poster mentioned he sold him for Kelce and a 2020 1st, that's good value. But I had someone tell me I would have to give him Matt Ryan, Gurley, Julio Jones, and Njoku for Kamara. I think that's just absurd. Just my opinion, but its treating Gurley like he's worth a late 3rd rookie pick now 

Not sure about your league, but older QBs aren’t all that valuable in a dynasty league. And Njoku doesn’t (IMO) have much value.  So the principal components of the trade at Gurley, Kamara, & Jones.  It’s definitely lopsided in his value, but I’m assuming you initiated the trade discussions, with the goal of getting Kamara.  

Flip the script; if another owner had contacted YOU prior to last season about trading for Gurley, would you have tried to make a perfectly balanced trade, or would you have demanded a King’s ransom in exchange for a top young RB, with no injury concerns?

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I just traded for him - gave up DJ Moore, Lamar Miller, and a 2021 1st for Gurley and Crowder.  

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Todd Gurley (knee) is not participating in team drills at OTAs.

"That was what we felt like was best for Todd when Todd and I sat down," coach Sean McVay said Tuesday. "And it's been really good so far and we feel good about that." The Rams are going to bring Gurley along slowly and may not even play him in the preseason if we were to make an educated guess. The plan is still obviously for Gurley to be ready to roll Week 1, but there are indications his workload could be scaled back in 2019. The Rams kept Malcolm Brown and then drafted Darrell Henderson as pieces to lighten the load on Gurley's troublesome knee.

SOURCE: ESPN.com

May 28, 2019, 11:51 PM ET

 

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So I think it's safe to assume he was hurt in the playoffs a Super Bow despite McVey claiming he wasn't. Imagine that.

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Posted (edited)
On 5/26/2019 at 8:15 PM, Dr. Dan said:

His sell high point has come and gone, absolutely. At this point he holds more value for you than he does in any trade. You might be able to sell during the season if he has shown no signs of slowing down, but the arthritis bell has been rung. IMO in season trading has the most upside but the most risk too... he could be worth nothing at that point, at least nothing worth trading him away for. 

 

DLF has an interesting thread about selling high. Who are those guys? And many people suggest players who are already on the downswing. A poster made the comment that sell highs might be more:

Barkely, Hopkins, Zeke

the argument is that their value will never be higher. and that's probably true. 

Gurley was probably sell high last year

What do you ask for that can realistically equal the value of an rb who should be the top of his position (and a foundation of your team) for the next three years? Question goes for both Zeke and Barkley.

Hopkins as a sell high I like.  Probably won't slow down this season, but he's got tread on his tires.

+edit - just realized Hopkins is 27.  Not too sure about that any more.

Edited by wgoldsph

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Several months ago I traded away Derrick Henry and Kerryon Johnson for Gurley, at the time thinking that was a steal...now...:oldunsure:

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4 hours ago, Faust said:

 

 

Every time I hear McVay talk about Gurley, I feel he's just spinning positive but meaningless statements.  Beginning about week 16 last year, it's just been optimistic drivel, denying the obvious evidence we've all seen in Gurley's usage and visible/statistical results.  We're not going to see Gurley in the preseason, will only hear more of the same blah blah blah from McVay, and will see a 50% snap count at most in the regular season.  He's done as a workhorse and RB1 IMO.

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5 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

So I think it's safe to assume he was hurt in the playoffs a Super Bow despite McVey claiming he wasn't. Imagine that.

McVay was technically correct (which is of course the best kind of correct) - arthritis or other degenerative knee issues are a chronic condition, not an acute injury. That also means that he likely won't show up on the injury report and could still be a surprise scratch at any point or only get a small amount of touches. 

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38 minutes ago, Conan Troutman said:

McVay was technically correct (which is of course the best kind of correct) - arthritis or other degenerative knee issues are a chronic condition, not an acute injury. That also means that he likely won't show up on the injury report and could still be a surprise scratch at any point or only get a small amount of touches. 

This is what frustrates me and it's why some are under estimating his knee. It's the attorney-like talk wherentheyre cryptic and "technically right" but really saying as little as they need to say in ways that disclose as little information as possible about the condition. 

But of course, we see this all the time, but on the opposite side if it: Hes our QB, hes great, that guy can play. What are they supposed to say, our QB sucks?! or in this case, "yeah his knee is screwed, were f-ed. we just wasted a lot of money on him" of course not. They have to consider the PR nightmare that comes with being straight honest. Anyone who can connect the dots sees what's going on here. How severe it is, no one knows, but it's obvious it's not anywhere close to good, and possibly difficult to even manage. 

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6 hours ago, wgoldsph said:

What do you ask for that can realistically equal the value of an rb who should be the top of his position (and a foundation of your team) for the next three years?

If you are curious to know, I recently had traded Gurley for Le'Veon Bell and 2020 1st round in 12-teams PPR league.  

25 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

This is what frustrates me and it's why some are under estimating his knee. It's the attorney-like talk wherentheyre cryptic and "technically right" but really saying as little as they need to say in ways that disclose as little information as possible about the condition. 

Yes, this is part of the reason why I felt the time was right to sell Gurley now so I can avoid all coachspeak during regular season.   By matching Lions' contract offer to retain Malcolm Brown and trading up to select Darrell Henderson, I foresee Rams taking RBBC approach this year.  

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On 5/26/2019 at 8:15 PM, Dr. Dan said:

His sell high point has come and gone, absolutely. At this point he holds more value for you than he does in any trade. You might be able to sell during the season if he has shown no signs of slowing down, but the arthritis bell has been rung. IMO in season trading has the most upside but the most risk too... he could be worth nothing at that point, at least nothing worth trading him away for. 

 

DLF has an interesting thread about selling high. Who are those guys? And many people suggest players who are already on the downswing. A poster made the comment that sell highs might be more:

Barkely, Hopkins, Zeke

the argument is that their value will never be higher. and that's probably true. 

Gurley was probably sell high last year

injuries are unfortunately, but IMO you just don't trade players like Zeke barkely or Hopkins.....I mean are you hoping to get …..Zeke Barkley or Hopkins back? 

Studs and points win...….

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43 minutes ago, bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

injuries are unfortunately, but IMO you just don't trade players like Zeke barkely or Hopkins.....I mean are you hoping to get …..Zeke Barkley or Hopkins back? 

Studs and points win...….

I agree. I'm just saying, if we define a sell high the way it should be- selling at the highest value point, then these guys would qualify at this point. certainly if you own them they can win you championships.

IMO sell high usually applies to anyone but stud players. I own Barkely and Mixon... I'll own them until the day they retire most likely. Or if I need a complete remake of my roster... which is unlikely due to what my roster looks like! 

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Posted (edited)

Five takeaways from the second week of OTAs

Excerpt:

Quote

5) PLAN FOR GURLEY

Running back Todd Gurley has not been on the field for OTAs, but that’s part of a plan that was previously set out, according to head coach Sean McVay.

“That was what we felt like was best when Todd and I sat down,” McVay said this week. “And it’s been really good so far and we feel good about that.”

McVay noted that the Rams have been pleased with Gurley and his training this offseason. And part of the reason why the league’s leader in touchdowns two years running has not been as heavily involved as he’s been in the past is because the Rams played so much longer in 2018.

So as the 2019 season approaches, McVay said that this is the best course of action for Gurley to be at his best for training camp and Week 1 against the Panthers.

 

Edited by Faust

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Posted (edited)
On 5/29/2019 at 7:35 PM, Dr. Dan said:

Hmmm...

6'1 218 pounds = 28.8 BMI

5'9 208 pounds = 30.7 BMI and, apparently, too small to be more than a COP back

And a 5’6 195-pounder has an even better BMI.

He’s small (light). Period. Henderson’s lack of size (weight) coupled with his somewhat limited skill set will make it extremely difficult for him to be a successful long-term feature back (even if he DOES gets the opportunity).

 

Edited by Football Jones

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36 minutes ago, Football Jones said:

And a 5’6 195-pounder has an even better BMI.

He’s small (light). Period. Henderson’s lack of size (weight) coupled with his somewhat limited skill set will make it extremely difficult for him to be a successful long-term feature back (even if he DOES gets the opportunity).

 

A difference of ten pounds makes him small?

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40 minutes ago, Football Jones said:

And a 5’6 195-pounder has an even better BMI.

He’s small (light). Period. Henderson’s lack of size (weight) coupled with his somewhat limited skill set will make it extremely difficult for him to be a successful long-term feature back (even if he DOES gets the opportunity).

 

 

Half of the top 10 rushing seasons in NFL history were posted by guys 212 lbs or less.  I guess someone forgot to tell those guys they were only capable of being CoP RBs.

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4 minutes ago, wgoldsph said:

A difference of ten pounds makes him small?

Henderson is certainly a smaller RB, but it’s actually a combination of his lack of size & his skill set which is going to prohibit him from being the kind of RB a lot of people are expressing in this thread.

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