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fantasycurse42

Ronnie Hillman, Denver 1/3 STARTING RB

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Well I picked up both Hillman and CJ... I'll be at the game on Sunday. Going to keep them both until I know for sure who's likely to get the carries.

And by the time you do, Ball should be back.

This could be a 3 headed monster w/ thompson in the mix possibly getting some goal line love. I'm still betting that CJ separates himself till ball returns. The talk radio out here in denver was very down on hillman, then he is mysteriously MIA for the first 3 weeks.

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Back in 2012, Hillman was a rookie. They ended up going with the established veteran in Moreno, but that's hardly relevant anymore.

He's now in his 3rd year and likely has gained a level of comfort he didn't have before, and he brings an element of speed that the other backs don't. He was a 3rd round pick by this group, and I don't see a lot of reasons to believe they're lying when they say the expect Hillman to be the primary ballcarrier.

That doesn't mean others won't get touches, but I suspect Hillman should have a few catches and some room to rattle off some nice runs if he's decisive and doesn't fumble. It's a pretty big opportunity for him, but he'll need to get off to a nice start to take advantage of it. It's not like Monte Ball was performing at a level where he'd be guaranteed to get his job back.

was he a rookie last year when they were saying the same things about hillman in training camp?

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ESPN reports the Broncos will start Knowshon Moreno at running back against the Chiefs.

Ronnie Hillman was expected to lead the Broncos' three-man committee all week long, but they simply don't trust their third-round rookie in pass protection. It makes for a hot mess of a fantasy situation, and one that should be avoided if at all possible. Hillman could still end up leading the Broncos backfield in touches, but based on what we know now, he simply can't be trusted over Moreno. Both Moreno and Hillman are extremely shaky flex options, and should be benched if you have any sort of an alternative. Plodding passing-down specialist Lance Ball is well off the radar.
Sun, Nov 25, 2012 12:20:00 PM

The Associated Press expects the Broncos to "watch" Ronnie Hillman's workload "closely." At just 5'9/200, Hillman certainly isn't built to run between the tackles like Willis McGahee was. He excels at bursting through a hole, bouncing runs to the outside and using his long speed to make plays. Hillman will start against the Chiefs this week and figures to push for 15-plus touches, but don't be surprised to see Lance Ball and Knowshon Moreno mixed in.

Thu, Nov 22, 2012 08:25:00 AM

The Denver Post expects Ronnie Hillman to "get the first call" in Sunday's game against the Chiefs. Hillman has been listed as Willis McGahee's (knee) top backup for weeks now. He's earned the job with explosive outside running ability and by showing well in pass protection. "(Hillman) has improved quite a bit," coach John Fox said Monday. "He's got excellent vision. He's got excellent burst through the hole." The third-round rookie also hasn't lost a fumble all year. We're expecting Hillman to push for 15-18 touches as part of a committee with Lance Ball Sunday.

Source: Denver Post
Tue, Nov 20, 2012 09:15:00 AM

The Broncos are expected to use Ronnie Hillman and Lance Ball in a tandem attack if Willis McGahee (knee) sits out Week 12 at the Chiefs.

The Bengals rushed for a season-high 189 yards at Kansas City, so it's a good matchup. Hillman took over as the lead back once McGahee left Sunday, but managed just 28 yards on 11 carries (2.5 YPC) in the role. The slightly built rookie has struggled to run between the tackles. For fantasy purposes, however, Hillman is the recommended pickup this week over passing-down specialist Ball. McGahee is going for an MRI on Monday.
Related: Lance Ball
Source: Denver Post
Mon, Nov 19, 2012 02:55:00 AM

Is 2012 news relevant to this discussion?

Not in the least.

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Other than being the exact same situation as two years ago and the Broncos today saying the exact same things they said two years ago, it's completely irrelevant.

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I just made a trade to acquire Ball. I just hope he's back before Rashad Jennings because I am starting Andre Williams in the interim. We shall see.

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ESPN reports the Broncos will start Knowshon Moreno at running back against the Chiefs.

Ronnie Hillman was expected to lead the Broncos' three-man committee all week long, but they simply don't trust their third-round rookie in pass protection. It makes for a hot mess of a fantasy situation, and one that should be avoided if at all possible. Hillman could still end up leading the Broncos backfield in touches, but based on what we know now, he simply can't be trusted over Moreno. Both Moreno and Hillman are extremely shaky flex options, and should be benched if you have any sort of an alternative. Plodding passing-down specialist Lance Ball is well off the radar.
Sun, Nov 25, 2012 12:20:00 PM

The Associated Press expects the Broncos to "watch" Ronnie Hillman's workload "closely." At just 5'9/200, Hillman certainly isn't built to run between the tackles like Willis McGahee was. He excels at bursting through a hole, bouncing runs to the outside and using his long speed to make plays. Hillman will start against the Chiefs this week and figures to push for 15-plus touches, but don't be surprised to see Lance Ball and Knowshon Moreno mixed in.

Thu, Nov 22, 2012 08:25:00 AM

The Denver Post expects Ronnie Hillman to "get the first call" in Sunday's game against the Chiefs. Hillman has been listed as Willis McGahee's (knee) top backup for weeks now. He's earned the job with explosive outside running ability and by showing well in pass protection. "(Hillman) has improved quite a bit," coach John Fox said Monday. "He's got excellent vision. He's got excellent burst through the hole." The third-round rookie also hasn't lost a fumble all year. We're expecting Hillman to push for 15-18 touches as part of a committee with Lance Ball Sunday.

Source: Denver Post
Tue, Nov 20, 2012 09:15:00 AM

The Broncos are expected to use Ronnie Hillman and Lance Ball in a tandem attack if Willis McGahee (knee) sits out Week 12 at the Chiefs.

The Bengals rushed for a season-high 189 yards at Kansas City, so it's a good matchup. Hillman took over as the lead back once McGahee left Sunday, but managed just 28 yards on 11 carries (2.5 YPC) in the role. The slightly built rookie has struggled to run between the tackles. For fantasy purposes, however, Hillman is the recommended pickup this week over passing-down specialist Ball. McGahee is going for an MRI on Monday.
Related: Lance Ball
Source: Denver Post
Mon, Nov 19, 2012 02:55:00 AM

Is 2012 news relevant to this discussion?

Yes, it is. It helps put the current situation into perspective. Same team, same coach, some of the same players

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Except for the fact that Hillman is no longer a rookie who they don't trust in pass protection.

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Well ended up with Hillman. Can't say I feel great about it either

I can't start him in front of Miller or Bradshaw this week, can I?

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Hillman went for $125 (out of $200) in one league. People are nuts

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Except for the fact that Hillman is no longer a rookie who they don't trust in pass protection.

But he's still a smaller guy who they view as more of a change of pace back...And they've proven that they don't necessarily dress the guy they feel is the back-up to their primary back. Not dressing doesn't necessarily mean you're not important, or not vital to the team. It just means that there are other guys who have more functions and roles to play on an active roster than that guy.

Use this as an exaggerated example...Take a guy like Kordell Stewart. When he first came into the league, he played WR. If you were the Steelers, and you ranked your QB's as QB1, QB2, QB3, and Stewart at QB4, and you were dressing 3 QB's for a game, who would you dress? Would you dress QB1, QB2, and QB3, sitting Stewart? Or would you dress QB1, QB2, and Stewart? You'd dress Stewart, because he could also play WR and help there while QB3 would just sit on the bench "in case." But...if QB1 and QB2 got hurt, you might actually start QB3 over Stewart, because purely as a QB you consider QB3 better. Same thing could be happening here. Anderson could essentially be the "true" back-up, but they go with other guys who can do other things. Not saying this is a reason why it IS Anderson, just saying that history, and logic indicate that the fact that Anderson wasn't dressed last week, mainly because he doesn't play special teams, really isn't an indicator of his place in the pecking order.

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The part that I find most concerning - as an Anderson owner - is that Ball was under performing going into last week's game. Wouldn't that prompt you as the head coach to keep the number two guy active in case Ball under performs again. SO maybe the number 2 really is Hillman.

you're starting to get it.

I don't know that I am. And I am not sure you are either.

Only time will tell.

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The part that I find most concerning - as an Anderson owner - is that Ball was under performing going into last week's game. Wouldn't that prompt you as the head coach to keep the number two guy active in case Ball under performs again. SO maybe the number 2 really is Hillman.

you're starting to get it.

I don't know that I am. And I am not sure you are either.

Only time will tell.

Only it doesn't fit with the fact that CJ was the no. 2 runner in the first 3 games. Anderson came in to spell Ball, not Hillman.

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Could be wrong here (and correct me if I am) but Hillman doesn't play special teams either does he?

So if CJ is the back to own with the Ball injury, why was he the healthy scratch over Hillman last week if both contribute nothing to special teams?

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I side more on the side of CJ being the guy to own. Let's not forget that we aren't just talking about an injury situation here. Montee Ball is not only hurt, he's been completely ineffective.

Guys that follow the team liked CJ. FBguys has been pimping CJ.

Now am I sure about this? Heck no, this is John Fox we are talking about. He's confused me with RB's as long as I've played fantasy football.

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Flat out I don't trust anything until game time. Assuming anything makes a ### out of you and me and Fox is the worst to try and figure out. Wait till gametime and let the chips fall where they may. Some will be rewarded others will be screwed but the one thing stays constant, is that Ball wasn't doing #### with his opportunities and manning yelled at him a minimum of 2 times a game. If any of these guys steps up and impresses Manning, Ball lost his job and it sux for those that drafted him as a top 10 RB.

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Except for the fact that Hillman is no longer a rookie who they don't trust in pass protection.

Actually he's done well in pass protection while in there this year. The reporters during the last game went out of their way to mention it.

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Could be wrong here (and correct me if I am) but Hillman doesn't play special teams either does he?

So if CJ is the back to own with the Ball injury, why was he the healthy scratch over Hillman last week if both contribute nothing to special teams?

Because Hillman is the change-of-pace back and has value regardless of who the starter is. His role is there whether Ball is healthy or not. It's kind of like how Darren Sproles was in NO...he was never considered as the "back-up" RB. He was just this other unique type guy who saw touches regardless.

Hillman's not going away if CJ is the back to own. He'll have the same role (maybe a slightly expanded one)...CJ will just take over Ball's carries/situations. Again, not saying that's what it is...just saying IF it is, that's how it'll play out.

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Flat out I don't trust anything until game time.

I think this is the only thing you can really say. I have CJ in one league, and Hillman in another. I'm not starting either this week. If you HAVE to start one of them, you must be really thin at RB and must be really into gambling. I could see either one having the majority of the touches. I could see either one having a good game. I could see either one (even the one with the most touches) doing NOTHING...much like Ball has so far.

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Flat out I don't trust anything until game time.

I think this is the only thing you can really say. I have CJ in one league, and Hillman in another. I'm not starting either this week. If you HAVE to start one of them, you must be really thin at RB and must be really into gambling. I could see either one having the majority of the touches. I could see either one having a good game. I could see either one (even the one with the most touches) doing NOTHING...much like Ball has so far.

I am very much on the borderline of that but I think I'll give Joique Bell one more week to see if he is worth anything and let's see how this coming game pans out ot have a better idea of who is getting the bulk of the carries.

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I just made a trade to acquire Ball. I just hope he's back before Rashad Jennings because I am starting Andre Williams in the interim. We shall see.

thanks for the update.

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If you HAVE to start one of them, you must be really thin at RB and must be really into gambling. I could see either one having the majority of the touches. I could see either one having a good game. I could see either one (even the one with the most touches) doing NOTHING...much like Ball has so far.

I think the story of this season so far is gambling on crappy or timeshare RB like Asiata, Bradshaw, Forsett, Sproles. Who in their right mind would start Forsett all year? Probably someone who is 4-1 and top of your league in points. If Hillman starts I think he has a decent floor in PPR leagues.

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I'm thinking of starting Hillman this week, with Charles on a bye, it's either him or Gerhart. Yuck.

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Except for the fact that Hillman is no longer a rookie who they don't trust in pass protection.

But he's still a smaller guy who they view as more of a change of pace back...And they've proven that they don't necessarily dress the guy they feel is the back-up to their primary back. Not dressing doesn't necessarily mean you're not important, or not vital to the team. It just means that there are other guys who have more functions and roles to play on an active roster than that guy.

I won't use your exaggerated example and the notion that the Broncos only view Hillman as a COP back is purely speculation. None of us have any idea how the Broncos view Hillman. (ETA - And everything coming out of Denver right now indicates that they view him as the starter. I guess that could be an attempt at gamesmanship to confuse the Jets, but they seem pretty confused on their own).

A COP back doesn't have to be smaller, faster and good in the passing game. Andre Williams was the COP to Rashad Jennings. In most cases the COP is just the backup.

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I side more on the side of CJ being the guy to own. Let's not forget that we aren't just talking about an injury situation here. Montee Ball is not only hurt, he's been completely ineffective.

Guys that follow the team liked CJ. FBguys has been pimping CJ.

Now am I sure about this? Heck no, this is John Fox we are talking about. He's confused me with RB's as long as I've played fantasy football.

FBG and guys that followed the team also pimped Tatum Bell.

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Two more days of this catfighting. Come Sunday this thread should be put to rest just like the Asiata and McKinnon one.

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I side more on the side of CJ being the guy to own. Let's not forget that we aren't just talking about an injury situation here. Montee Ball is not only hurt, he's been completely ineffective.

Guys that follow the team liked CJ. FBguys has been pimping CJ.

Now am I sure about this? Heck no, this is John Fox we are talking about. He's confused me with RB's as long as I've played fantasy football.

FBG and guys that followed the team also pimped Tatum Bell.

Damn near spit my coffee out because I remember this sooooooo well

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I won't use your exaggerated example and the notion that the Broncos only view Hillman as a COP back is purely speculation. None of us have any idea how the Broncos view Hillman. (ETA - And everything coming out of Denver right now indicates that they view him as the starter. I guess that could be an attempt at gamesmanship to confuse the Jets, but they seem pretty confused on their own).

A COP back doesn't have to be smaller, faster and good in the passing game. Andre Williams was the COP to Rashad Jennings. In most cases the COP is just the backup.

The example was only exaggerated to help people get why a dedicated back-up might not dress. As for the COP back designation:

From the lips of John Elway himself: "Change-of-Pace type of guy."

I'm not arguing that none of us know how they'll use him. My only point in all of this is that looking at it being Hillman because a) He got most of the carries post-Ball last week, and b) because Anderson was not dressed, is really short-sighted.

What, specifically, is coming out of Denver indicating that Hillman is the starter? Besides the quote from him where he says he's "prepping to be the starter?" I would think EVERY RB preps to be the starter...That doesn't mean they will be.

Also - I never said Hillman was faster or good in the passing game. If you look at his carries, most of them come on 1st down. He's not used exclusively as a 3rd down RB. He IS smaller though, giving up 30 lbs. to Anderson.

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I won't use your exaggerated example and the notion that the Broncos only view Hillman as a COP back is purely speculation. None of us have any idea how the Broncos view Hillman. (ETA - And everything coming out of Denver right now indicates that they view him as the starter. I guess that could be an attempt at gamesmanship to confuse the Jets, but they seem pretty confused on their own).

A COP back doesn't have to be smaller, faster and good in the passing game. Andre Williams was the COP to Rashad Jennings. In most cases the COP is just the backup.

The example was only exaggerated to help people get why a dedicated back-up might not dress. As for the COP back designation:

From the lips of John Elway himself: "Change-of-Pace type of guy."

I'm not arguing that none of us know how they'll use him. My only point in all of this is that looking at it being Hillman because a) He got most of the carries post-Ball last week, and b) because Anderson was not dressed, is really short-sighted.

What, specifically, is coming out of Denver indicating that Hillman is the starter? Besides the quote from him where he says he's "prepping to be the starter?" I would think EVERY RB preps to be the starter...That doesn't mean they will be.

Also - I never said Hillman was faster or good in the passing game. If you look at his carries, most of them come on 1st down. He's not used exclusively as a 3rd down RB. He IS smaller though, giving up 30 lbs. to Anderson.

That article is fine and dandy if you are drafting in 2013.

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What, specifically, is coming out of Denver indicating that Hillman is the starter? Besides the quote from him where he says he's "prepping to be the starter?" I would think EVERY RB preps to be the starter...That doesn't mean they will be.

Link

If it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck then it's probably a duck.

I am not really advocating starting any Denver RB because they have been a huge disappointment, they have a tough couple of games and there is still some uncertainty. But if you are going to roll with one then you should probably roll with the one that Manning is endorsing.

Sure, it could be subterfuge to get the Jets to prepare for Hillman then surprise them with Anderson, then again you could also simply be over-thinking the situation and end up giving yourself a migraine.

Rolling with CJ is nothing more than a gut call and, as an Anderson owner myself I say good on you if it works out. And in that scenario I will be disappointed that I left points on the bench and congratulate you. But it's still just a gut call in the face of actual evidence to the contrary.

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Hillman may be the "starter" but I think Hillman and CJ will get about 10 carries per game with the "hot" hand rb getting 15+. Also, imo, Anderson will be the goal line back

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This is going to be long because ESPN reporters and their lazy, lazy, lazyyyyyyy analysis bugs the hell out of me. So skip ahead if you so desire.

This article by Jeff Legwold on ESPN, and specifically this quote below drive me crazy:

So far, as the No. 2 back, both in practice and games for most of the season, Hillman has made 17.1 percent of the carries and 19.2 percent of the snaps. Anderson has made 11.1 percent of the carries and 8.3 percent of the snaps.

Week 1:

Ball - 66 snaps; 23 carries, 2 receptions

Anderson - 8 snaps; 4 carries

Hillman - Inactive

Week 2:

Ball - 37 snaps; 12 carries, 3 receptions

Anderson - 12 snaps; 5 carries

Hillman - 0 snaps (though active)

Week 3:

Ball - 54 snaps; 14 carries, 2 receptions

Anderson - 3 snaps; 2 carries, 1 reception

Hillman - 14 snaps (and I'm not 100% sure on the counts since I can't find them by quarter, but I watched this game and at least 6 of Hillman's snaps came in the final Manning drive -- others felt very sporadic); 2 carries, 1 reception

First Half - Week 5:

Ball - 7 carries, 2 receptions

Hillman - 1 carry

Anderson - inactive (so DEN could activate another DB, as stated by Fox)

How can you take all of that data from the first three games and the first half of the fourth, and conclude that Ronnie Hillman is the guy? Much less, how severely do you skew the snap count stats by including the second half of week 5 -- utilizing a full half of data in which the situation had radically changed, Hillman got 14 of his 15 touches, and played the vast majority of his 39 snaps -- POST BALL INJURY?

Hillman was inactive week 1, he didn't touch the ball week 2, and week three he touched it a grand total of 3 times despite getting 14 snaps, the majority of which were in desperation comeback mode where DEN likely wanted him in the screen game as he's a more productive receiver, e.g. better chance to take it to the house if they got him in space. Obviously that's my speculation, but it's not that far a stretch logically.

In the first half Sunday, before Ball got hurt early in the 3rd Quarter, Hillman had a grand total of 1 carry...for -1 yards...with :48 left in the first half... when DEN was running out the clock to head to the locker room. Ball, in the first half, had 6 carries, 2 receptions, and 3 targets.

Second half starts, and Ball is still the guy, getting the first carry, then getting injured on Denver's second play of the second half. At that point, Hillman proceeds to rack up 15 carries, but still cedes 3 carries (including goalline work) to 4th stringer Thompson who hadn't touched the ball all year. Numbers Legwold quoted in the article are much, much more accurate when used to depict the number of snaps and touches players had through the first 3 weeks when Denver didn't deactivate Anderson for a specified reason, are they not? << "Am I Wrong?" -- Walter Sobchak>>

Ball - 157 snaps; 56 touches (80.9% of the snaps; 79% of the touches)

Anderson - 23 snaps; 12 touches (11.9% of the snaps; 17% of the touches)

Hillman - 14 snaps; 3 touches (7.2%; 4% of the touches)

Through the first 3 weeks Anderson out touched Hillman 4-1, yet we're now supposed to buy that Hillman has had "17% of the carries and 19% of the snaps" as "the No.2 back both in practice and games for most of the season." Gimme a break, ESPN. And frankly, for all the talk Hillman is this special receiver the team needs to get in space? Ball has outpaced him in targets 11-4 and receptions 9-1. Anderson has even equaled Hillman in receptions 1-1.

Keep pimping Hillman... let's see how many times Charlie Brown tries to kick the football.

:deadhorse:

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Hillman may be the "starter" but I think Hillman and CJ will get about 10 carries per game with the "hot" hand rb getting 15+. Also, imo, Anderson will be the goal line back

Anderson as the goal line back seems plausible. It will make it easier for Manning to hit Julius Thomas for the TD.

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Does anyone else think that despite pretty much always saying the right thing that Manning is really driven by his personal stats?

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Hillman may be the "starter" but I think Hillman and CJ will get about 10 carries per game with the "hot" hand rb getting 15+. Also, imo, Anderson will be the goal line back

Anderson as the goal line back seems plausible. It will make it easier for Manning to hit Julius Thomas for the TD.
Or D Thomas or Welker or Sanders or Tamme

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Hillman may be the "starter" but I think Hillman and CJ will get about 10 carries per game with the "hot" hand rb getting 15+. Also, imo, Anderson will be the goal line back

Anderson as the goal line back seems plausible. It will make it easier for Manning to hit Julius Thomas for the TD.
Or D Thomas or Welker or Sanders or Tamme

True but JT is the most likely to actually come down with the TD.

When Denver is on the goal line (Targets-Receptions-TDs):

JT - 5-4-4

DT - 3-0-0

Tamme - 1-1-1

Welker/Sanders/any RB - 0-0-0

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Hillman may be the "starter" but I think Hillman and CJ will get about 10 carries per game with the "hot" hand rb getting 15+. Also, imo, Anderson will be the goal line back

Anderson as the goal line back seems plausible. It will make it easier for Manning to hit Julius Thomas for the TD.
Or D Thomas or Welker or Sanders or Tamme

True but JT is the most likely to actually come down with the TD.

When Denver is on the goal line (Targets-Receptions-TDs):

JT - 5-4-4

DT - 3-0-0

Tamme - 1-1-1

Welker/Sanders/any RB - 0-0-0

The past is not necessarily an indicator of future results. Just saying.

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The part that I find most concerning - as an Anderson owner - is that Ball was under performing going into last week's game. Wouldn't that prompt you as the head coach to keep the number two guy active in case Ball under performs again. SO maybe the number 2 really is Hillman.

you're starting to get it.

Not when the game plan is to pass 75% to avoid the stout Zona front. I'd say they had the right plan based on those results...

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As a Ball owner, Im glad I avoided this whole mess and picked up Storm!

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Hillman may be the "starter" but I think Hillman and CJ will get about 10 carries per game with the "hot" hand rb getting 15+. Also, imo, Anderson will be the goal line back

Anderson as the goal line back seems plausible. It will make it easier for Manning to hit Julius Thomas for the TD.
Or D Thomas or Welker or Sanders or Tamme

True but JT is the most likely to actually come down with the TD.

When Denver is on the goal line (Targets-Receptions-TDs):

JT - 5-4-4

DT - 3-0-0

Tamme - 1-1-1

Welker/Sanders/any RB - 0-0-0

The past is not necessarily an indicator of future results. Just saying.

:lmao:

Well played.

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Starting Hillman over Jamaal Charles and Knile Davis. :topcat:

Man...How'd you make that tough decision with the Chiefs on a bye and all?

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That article is fine and dandy if you are drafting in 2013.

Sure, it's from 2013...but I don't think anything we've seen in 2014 has indicated Hillman is anything "new." They even note how the team is looking to draft a bigger back...which ultimately was Ball, then they signed Anderson as well...and this year drafted Thompson.

What, specifically, is coming out of Denver indicating that Hillman is the starter? Besides the quote from him where he says he's "prepping to be the starter?" I would think EVERY RB preps to be the starter...That doesn't mean they will be.

Link

If it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck then it's probably a duck.

This is good stuff actually...I didn't realize Peyton was a tweeter.

Ultimately, like I said, starting ANY of these guys is a crap shoot. I'm with MNTom as far as what I think will happen. I think Hillman will "start," but that none of these guys will put up true "starter" numbers. I'd give the nod to Anderson just for the goalline looks if I had to pick one of the two...nobody for yards though.

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Just saw hillman on espn and he was asked if he was told he was the starter. He did not say yes

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Tiresome debate, I'll be glad when it's over. :laysheadonpillownow:

This forum wouldn't exist were it not for tiresome debates.

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guys with hillman think he is the guy. Guys with Anderson think he is the guy. It's not even really a debate. It's ridiculous. Just wait until Sunday and enjoy the youngster with a bright head on his shoulders and great future that is Juwan Thompson.

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I can't believe that with all the heads we have in this thread we can't get one update on who has been running with the ones in practice this week. BC whoever that is is the Rb to own/start this week.

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