Kid's upside is AJ Green. I think he gets pretty damn close. Here are the WRs taken in the Top 15 since 2010. Pretty solid company.
Watkins
Evans
ODB
Tavon
Blackmon
Floyd
Green
Julio
A lot of those guys were taken in or around the top 5 though, which has a MUCH better hit rate than guys in or around the teens. Here are the WRs taken in the 10-19 range the last 20 years.
Odell Beckham
Michael Floyd
Michael Crabtree
Jeremy Maclin
Mike Williams
Lee Evans
Michael Clayton
Bryant Johnson
Ashlie Lelie
Rod Gardner
Santana Moss
Travis Taylor
Troy Edwards
Kevin Dyson
Yatil Green
Reidel Anthony
Eddie Kennison
Marvin Harrison
JJ Stokes
:X
I would have thought that list would be a lot longer over 20 years. There are some busts on that list, for sure. Wr's are coming into the league more ready for the NFL and
the last two wr classes are considered to be two of the best ever. Last year sure is looking that way. We'll see if this year holds up in time.
This is a fallacy.
Last years may be considered that, now, since those guys were so successful. However people seem to be under the assumption that 5 or 6 WRs getting drafted in the 1st round is some kind of anomaly. It is not. The only anomaly here is how successful last year's group were.
2001, 2005, 2007, and 2009 all had 6 WRs taken in the 1st round. 2004 had 7 taken in the first round.
Those classes were all looked at as if they were as good, if not better (most of them were stronger at the top at least, with guys like Megatron and Fitzgerald being much better prospects than Cooper) than the 2014 and 2015 classes.
Lots of WRs getting drafted isn't new. And outside of last year's class, WR hit rates lately aren't any better than the historical averages either, especially outside the top 5 or 6 picks of the NFL draft. People are badly letting last year's WR success (and historically, a couple of those guys will probably end up falling flat even after their fast starts) cloud their judgment of how "can't miss" rookie WRs are. OMG, Devante Parker was a top 15 pick in a WR class that was so good that it had 6 guys go in the 1st round! He's a can't miss superstar!
The reality is that he's not really any more highly regarded as a prospect than the Floyd's and Crabtree's that came before him.
I like Parker as a prospect, and I love him as a Dolphins fan that will now be rooting for him passionately day in and day out. But last year's early success has gotten people way, way, way over-confident with rookie WRs. Prior to last year none of the seasons that had 5-6 first round fantasy WRs ended up with more than one guy that was even pretty good long-term, much less a fantasy stud. That is the norm and it would be far more surprising if all of Cooper/White/Parker end up great than one or none of them.
I like Cutler. I like Tannehill more though. He's still getting better. I truly think he's the next great QB in the NFL.
