My top 50 rookies (ppr) (1 Viewer)

For whatever it's worth, here's my top 50 dynasty prospect heading into the draft with a quick note on each. I like to do this each year about a week before the draft after soaking in all of the knowledge and scouting reports from all the experts. I then adjust a bit after I see the landing spots.

I absolutely love the depth of this class and think all the way down to the 16-18 range you are going to be able to get guys who would be 1st round draft picks most years. That to me is where the real strength of the class lies is in the crazy depth at both RB and WR. One of the things that make this RB class special for PPR dynasty is just how many of the backs are good in the passing game. None of the top backs are like Andre Williams and some other past rookie runners whose fantasy upside was always a bit limited.

I'll do a very quick writeup for the top 25 and may come back and edit in comments for the rest when I have time.

1. Todd Gurley- A once in every 5 year RB talent that I will like as the top guy no matter where he lands.

2. Amari Cooper- There's a belief that maybe his upside isn't through the roof due to his average size, but we've seen Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham, Jr. and others blow holes in that way of thinking.

3. Melvin Gordon- I bump him just a bit past White because I think he's a more scarce commodity in a league starved for young talent at RB and bursting at the seams with talented young WRs.

4. Kevin White- His athleticism and production is undeniable. I'm a little leery of WVU WRs as that scheme puts them in a lot of advantageous matchups, but he should translate well.

5. Devante Parker- The clear #3 WR and I think there's just a little bit of a tier drop for me after the top 5.

6. Ameer Abdullah- Absolutely love this guy and think he'll translate beautifully to the NFL. Landing spot will be interesting but I think he can be a 200 carry, 50 reception guy early in his career. Already on most my MFL10/MFL25 rosters.

7. TJ Yeldon- Landing spot will be a big key, but I see a little bit of Michigan St. Le'Veon Bell in Yeldon with the quick little burst he has and lateral agility. Potential to be a real workhorse like Lacy. Value could really sky rocket if he lands in the right spot.

8. Dorial Green-Beckham- Boom or bust and I would be scared as an NFL franchise to draft him. But in dynasty, you have to roll the dice at this point in the mid-late 1st because the upside is so extreme.

9. Nelson Agholor- May need to land in a prolific offense to be a fantasy star because I think he is probably an elite 2nd WR at the NFL level and not a true #1. Safe pick but with real PPR upside as well.

10. Breshad Perriman- The physical package and production is really enticing. Love him late in round 1.

11. Jaelen Strong- Strong needs to go to a team with a good QB who can nail the back shoulder throws. If he does, I love his upside as he is still very young and still growing into what he'll eventually be. A personal favorite of mine.

12. Tevin Coleman- As football fast as any RB who has come out in recent years as his burst is pretty special. Will need to land with a team that has a good OL because his make you miss ability isn't great.

13. Duke Johnson- I love RBs from the U and Johnson is going to be a good one. Question is if he's more of a committee guy or if he can shoulder a big load. Either way, he'll have PPR value.

14. Philip Dorsett- Perfect fit for today's NFL and if he ends up with an elite QB, could be a star.

15. Jay Ajayi- Flashes some great talent and is an example of a guy who would easily be a 1st round rookie pick most years but may slide into the 2nd.

16. Javorius Allen- The forgotten guy in this RB class but he has all the attributes to develop into a lead back for some team. Good at everything and really dominated some games over the last couple years at USC.

17. Maxx Williams- Didn't test off the charts but he just makes plays. Very good after the catch as well. Another who might be a late 1st if the RB/WR depth wasn't so exceptional.

18. Devin Funchess- Has gone from way overrated to way underrated now in some circles. He's still a physical specimen with some real upside, even if the chances of him busting are pretty high as well.

19. Tyler Lockett- I like his fantasy upside more than most because he could develop into a PPR monster.

20. Devin Smith- As a Buckeye fan, I was one of the first pointing to him as a day 2 prospect during the season but now I feel the hype has gone too far for him in PPR. Not really sold on him ever being more than a 50-60 catch guy, but he should still do a lot of damage on a per catch basis.

21. Marcus Mariota- Landing spot will be key. If Kelly finds a way to get him, I'm in and would consider him late 1st. If he ends up in Cleveland or Tennessee...mid-late 2nd.

22. Jameis Winston- He has Evans, VJax and ASJ which will help. But without any rushing impact, he'll have to put up huge passing numbers for any real fantasy impact.

23. Jeremy Langford- An underrated guy who has great play speed. Question is if he'll be able to pound it inside at NFL level.

24. David Johnson- His receiving upside is exciting and to get a guy with his physical attributes and skill set this late in a dynasty draft is why 2015 is such a fun year to have as many picks as possible.

25. David Cobb- A very tough, physical runner who should find his niche for somebody. The main issue for fantasy is how much upside he really has. Not going to catch a lot or break many long runs.

26. Rashad Greene

27. Sammie Coates

28. Cameron Artis-Payne

29. Mike Davis

30. Justin Hardy

31. Stefon Diggs

32. Chris Conley

33. Tre McBride

34. Karlos Williams

35. Malcolm Brown

36. Zach Zenner

37. Clive Walford

38. Tyler Kroft

39. Ty Montgomery

40. Jamison Crowder

41. Dres Anderson

42. DeAndre Smelter

43. Brett Hundley

44. Matt Jones

45. John Crockett

46. Josh Robinson

47. Braylon Heard

48. Vince Mayle

49. Antwan Goodley

50. Darren Waller

ctrl+f, Kenny Bell

Phrase not found.

Appreciate the effort but I don't think your logic is sound. You mention ranking Melvin Gordon 3 because the league is devoid of talented backs and an over abundance of talented wideouts. It's just the opposite - hence no one taking up AP on a deal or the Cowboys letting Murray walk etc. Thus, it seems your rankings are not really based on talent.

ctrlaltdefeat said:

Appreciate the effort but I don't think your logic is sound. You mention ranking Melvin Gordon 3 because the league is devoid of talented backs and an over abundance of talented wideouts. It's just the opposite - hence no one taking up AP on a deal or the Cowboys letting Murray walk etc. Thus, it seems your rankings are not really based on talent.

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The league is lacking talented backs. Right now, the following guys are all starting RBs.

L Blount

C Ivory

J. Forsett

D Robinson

B Sankey

B Oliver

R Jennings

D McFadden

D. Freeman

A. Ellington

I could probably add Doug Martin, Joique Bell, Latavius Murray, and maybe Jon Stewart to that list but I'm being lenient. No one wants Peterson because no one is giving up the rumored package Minnesota wants for a 30 year old back coming off a long vacation/suspension who also makes a crapton of money.

Ramblin Wreck said:

ctrlaltdefeat said:

Appreciate the effort but I don't think your logic is sound. You mention ranking Melvin Gordon 3 because the league is devoid of talented backs and an over abundance of talented wideouts. It's just the opposite - hence no one taking up AP on a deal or the Cowboys letting Murray walk etc. Thus, it seems your rankings are not really based on talent.

Click to expand...

The league is lacking talented backs. Right now, the following guys are all starting RBs.

L Blount

C Ivory

J. Forsett

D Robinson

B Sankey

B Oliver

R Jennings

D McFadden

D. Freeman

A. Ellington

I could probably add Doug Martin, Joique Bell, Latavius Murray, and maybe Jon Stewart to that list but I'm being lenient. No one wants Peterson because no one is giving up the rumored package Minnesota wants for a 30 year old back coming off a long vacation/suspension who also makes a crapton of money.

Click to expand...

Exactly. Well said. Great post.

from a trade value side i see nothing wrong with having rbs earlier and listing gordon #3. in all my leagues rbs tend to hold more trade value than wrs and are far tougher to come by.

Run It Up said:

ctrl+f, Kenny Bell

Phrase not found.

Click to expand...

That is an oversight, good catch...

Need to figure out where to slot him in but probably in the 33-40 range.

ctrlaltdefeat said:

Appreciate the effort but I don't think your logic is sound. You mention ranking Melvin Gordon 3 because the league is devoid of talented backs and an over abundance of talented wideouts. It's just the opposite - hence no one taking up AP on a deal or the Cowboys letting Murray walk etc. Thus, it seems your rankings are not really based on talent.

Click to expand...

I think you're conflating two different things: real life NFL vs. fantasy. NFL teams need to have 3 or 4 good WRs, so the need is for some 100+ WRs all of whom are basically starters for their NFL teams. However, obviously WR100 is of little value to your fantasy team when something like 40-45 or so total are starting in most leagues (12 teams x 3 starters plus some flex). So the NFL demand for a guy like Greg Jennings for example is higher than it is for fantasy football.

To put it in a different way, the bar to jump over to get into your starting fantasy lineup at WR is probably pretty high. Not sure who your #3WR on your dynasty roster is, but for most folks, it's a pretty strong player, especially after the 2014 WR class. On the other hand, most fantasy teams aren't exactly loaded at RB these days. And even if they are, it probably includes guys like Forte, Peterson, Foster, Lynch, etc. who are nearing the end of the road soon.

Also, I'd argue that the biggest reason that ADP and Murray aren't in quite as high demand (though Murray's $8M+ a year shows there was demand) is specifically due to the depth and talent of this RB class. There's no need to pay ADP $12M a year (and give up a high pick for the privilege of doing so) when you can just use that high pick on Gordon, Yeldon, Ajayi, Abdullah or whoever at RB and pay them $2M a year...

All that being said, I'm not going to argue with anyone who prefers White over Gordon at #3. Or even Parker over Gordon. That's a perfectly reasonable take that has plenty of merit. I felt similarly until recently but just decided in the past week to move Gordon up from #4 to #3 based upon how rare a consensus 1st round RB is in today's NFL vs. consensus top 15 WRs who are becoming very common.

My point isn't to bring down Gordon in any way, I like Gordon. In my dynasty leagues i can't get anything for my stud running backs but I could get whatever I want for DT, Emmanuel Sanders, Julio Jones or AJ Green. No one wants to part with the receivers. Shelf life is my only guess.

ctrlaltdefeat said:

My point isn't to bring down Gordon in any way, I like Gordon. In my dynasty leagues i can't get anything for my stud running backs but I could get whatever I want for DT, Emmanuel Sanders, Julio Jones or AJ Green. No one wants to part with the receivers. Shelf life is my only guess.

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Are your stud RBs Forte and Lynch or Leveon and Hill, big difference in what you can get

fruity pebbles said:

ctrlaltdefeat said:

My point isn't to bring down Gordon in any way, I like Gordon. In my dynasty leagues i can't get anything for my stud running backs but I could get whatever I want for DT, Emmanuel Sanders, Julio Jones or AJ Green. No one wants to part with the receivers. Shelf life is my only guess.

Click to expand...

Are your stud RBs Forte and Lynch or Leveon and Hill, big difference in what you can get

Click to expand...

Yep, I'd take LeVeon over pretty much all those WRs (with AJ and Julio as the only possible exceptions). That's kind of the point as well. We're at a weird spot right now where almost all of the top redraft RBs are 27+ years old (with Bell, Hill and maybe Anderson as the primary exceptions). If one of these 21 or 22 year old RBs hits and has a huge first or 2nd season like Bell, their value will be right up there with the top WRs. It doesn't seem all that far-fetched to see Gurley or Gordon put up one of those 1500+ total yard seasons quickly which would probably get them into the top 12 or so in terms of overall dynasty assets because the RB ranks are due for a major turnover near the top.

With the WRs, even 73-1,008-9 out of Kelvin Benjamin as a rookie didn't put him into that rarified air of the 1st round of dynasty startups. It would take a pretty monster rookie year from Cooper or White to be way up there. It's possible as they have the talent, but I like the odds a little better for the top RBs to break out early.

The shelf-life argument is persuasive if your WR is going to be putting up 275+ points per year in PPR. You're getting impact plus longevity. But how many guys are actually producing like that at WR? If they're only a ~200-220 point per year guy, there's some value there but with the inflated passing stats it's not as valuable as it once was, even if they keep it up for a decade.

It's tough to sell a RB in dynasty these days that's true. But it's also tough to buy one too because people still want to sell them for outrageous prices. In other words, everyone thinks their own backs should sell at max value and everyone wants to buy them at a discount.

Thanks for posting. That's higher than I've seen Javorius Allen. I liked what I saw of him on his highlight package.

fruity pebbles said:

ctrlaltdefeat said:

My point isn't to bring down Gordon in any way, I like Gordon. In my dynasty leagues i can't get anything for my stud running backs but I could get whatever I want for DT, Emmanuel Sanders, Julio Jones or AJ Green. No one wants to part with the receivers. Shelf life is my only guess.

Click to expand...

Are your stud RBs Forte and Lynch or Leveon and Hill, big difference in what you can get

Click to expand...

I'll give this the opposite spin but support your statement.

The reason you can't trade great RBs in dynasty football IS BECAUSE there are so few of them nobody can afford them and if you have Le'veon or Lacy, chances are, you aren't trading them off and if you could possibly be entertained to have that conversation, nobody can afford their value.

Ramblin Wreck said:

It's tough to sell a RB in dynasty these days that's true. But it's also tough to buy one too because people still want to sell them for outrageous prices. In other words, everyone thinks their own backs should sell at max value and everyone wants to buy them at a discount.

Click to expand...

As a RB seller, if you have one of the true 4-5 elites, you're exactly right that you want to sell them for a mint because they ARE that value.

A big name is nice at WR but at the end of the day, I can get a VERY HIGH producing Jordy Nelson at a cost that wouldn't even let me sit at the table to discuss even an aging Matt Forte.

I don't know for certain (haven't tried) but I'm willing to bet that I couldn't offer Hopkins Keenan Allen, Maclin, or J. Matthews (Eagles) to the CJ Anderson owner and get a deal done. All those guys and ANderson are similar (young, similar points, similar range of known and unknown, opportunity in their respective systems)..

but because Anderson is a RB, despite the reality that if you're honest with yourself, you know he is the riskiest of the bunch, you can't get a deal.

And that's how it is because despite all those WRs being very good point producers, you can trip over one in the fantasy streets if you walk around enough. You can't find a RB.

workdog3 said:

Dan Hindery said:

15. Jay Ajayi- Flashes some great talent and is an example of a guy who would easily be a 1st round rookie pick most years but may slide into the 2nd.

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Good list. I would like to see this happen in my leagues, but I'm not going to hold my breath.

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Can see it happening mostly because of the overall perceived talent in this draft class. If he was one of only 2-4 RBs worth anything, somebody would say "gotta try it" but, as it is, you might have owners saying "this guy has medical concerns and there are Strong, Dorsett, Duke Johnson, Mariota types out there" and those owners might play it safe.

People can accept not knocking a homerun if they aren't going to completely strike out, sometimes.

I keep hearing negative things about Ayaji's knees. Wouldn't touch him in the 1st. Probably won't be drafted by an nfl team until the 4th or later this weekend.

Alex P Keaton said:

Ramblin Wreck said:

ctrlaltdefeat said:

Appreciate the effort but I don't think your logic is sound. You mention ranking Melvin Gordon 3 because the league is devoid of talented backs and an over abundance of talented wideouts. It's just the opposite - hence no one taking up AP on a deal or the Cowboys letting Murray walk etc. Thus, it seems your rankings are not really based on talent.

Click to expand...

The league is lacking talented backs. Right now, the following guys are all starting RBs.

L Blount

C Ivory

J. Forsett

D Robinson

B Sankey

B Oliver

R Jennings

D McFadden

D. Freeman

A. Ellington

I could probably add Doug Martin, Joique Bell, Latavius Murray, and maybe Jon Stewart to that list but I'm being lenient. No one wants Peterson because no one is giving up the rumored package Minnesota wants for a 30 year old back coming off a long vacation/suspension who also makes a crapton of money.

Click to expand...

Exactly. Well said. Great post.

Click to expand...

I agree with this, and you add in alot of good RBs at 28+ like Forte, ADP, Foster.

the NFL landscape is ripe for a influx of young talented RBs.